Playoff Extra: What Wild Card Weekend means

Senior Fantasy Writer

Jan. 9, 2012 3:13 PM ET

Tim Tebow is going to get plenty of credit for Denver's playoff victory against Pittsburgh on Sunday, and rightfully so. He played better than anyone expected against the vaunted Steelers defense.

Tebow passed for a career-high 316 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winning score in overtime, and he also had 50 rushing yards and a touchdown. It was an amazing performance, but did he do anything to help his Fantasy value in 2012?

Many Fantasy owners are going to consider Tebow a starter on Draft Day, especially if you like to wait on drafting a quarterback with a late-round pick. After all, he had plenty of positive moments in 2011 with six games with at least 18 Fantasy points in 11 starts. He averaged 17.4 Fantasy points a week as a starter, which would have tied him with Mark Sanchez as the No. 12 quarterback in a standard league.

But heading into next year, Tebow should not be considered a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback. He barely cracks my Top 15 quarterbacks based on an early rank list for 2012:

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1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Drew Brees, Saints
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
4. Cam Newton, Panthers
5. Matthew Stafford, Lions
6. Michael Vick, Eagles
7. Peyton Manning, Colts
8. Eli Manning, Giants
9. Tony Romo, Cowboys
10. Philip Rivers, Chargers
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
13. Matt Schaub, Texans
14. Tim Tebow, Broncos
15. Carson Palmer, Raiders

When watching the playoffs, don't overreact when a player has a big game or get too down if a star struggles. But the postseason can help solidify an opinion you have of a certain player, especially if they build on something that was started in the regular season.

Here are five winners and losers from this past weekend. We'll consider Tebow a winner based on his play against the Steelers, and now he has to follow it up with another quality outing at New England. But even if that happens he should not be considered a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback heading into 2012.

Five winners

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
Playoff performance: Five catches for 90 yards and a touchdown vs. Cincinnati
Anyone wondering if Johnson is back from his hamstring problems saw against the Bengals that he is just fine. He scored on a 40-yard pass downfield where he put a nice double move on Bengals cornerback Pacman Jones. He also had nine targets in the game. Keep in mind this came with T.J. Yates at quarterback, and Johnson will get Matt Schaub (foot) back in 2012. He should be drafted as the No. 2 receiver behind Calvin Johnson next year with a pick toward the end of Round 2. Yes, injuries are a concern since Johnson missed nine games with the hamstring injuries this season. But he had three games with double digits in Fantasy points and remains a star when healthy, and we're expecting him to play big next year.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants
Playoff performance: Six catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns vs. Atlanta
Victor Cruz was the best receiver for the Giants in 2011, but Nicks will be the best Fantasy receiver for the Giants in 2012. He showed his dominance in the playoffs against the Falcons, and he will re-emerge as the go-to option for Eli Manning next year. Cruz will still remain a star, but Nicks is the receiver to target on Draft Day with a pick in Round 3. He has more upside than Cruz and he still had a successful campaign in 2011 with seven games with double digits in Fantasy points. He had a tremendous game against the Packers in Week 13 with seven catches for 88 yards and two touchdowns, and he should play at a high level against Green Bay in the rematch this week.

Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers
Playoff performance: 17 carries for 121 yards and two catches for 21 yards at Denver
Redman got the start against the Broncos with Rashard Mendenhall (torn ACL) out, and he showed Fantasy owners that he can be a reliable option heading into 2012. There's a strong chance Mendenhall won't be ready for Week 1 next year, which means Redman can be a starter if the Steelers re-sign the exclusive rights free agent as expected. He should be drafted as a No. 3 Fantasy running back with upside, and he is now in the same category as Toby Gerhart with Adrian Peterson (torn ACL and MCL) likely out to start next season. Depending on how long Mendenhall takes to return, we could be looking at Redman as a solid sleeper in 2012.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions
Playoff performance: 380 passing yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions and a rushing touchdown at New Orleans
The 2012 Fantasy value for Stafford and receiver Calvin Johnson were enhanced with their performance against the Saints. Stafford should be considered a Top 5 Fantasy quarterback next season, worth drafting in Round 2. The only quarterbacks better than him are, in order, Rodgers, Brees, Brady and Newton. And you won't get much of an argument from me if you take Stafford ahead of Newton. As for Johnson, he proved that he should be drafted in Round 1 in all leagues. There is no receiver better than him, and he produces like a running back with his ability to score. With his two touchdowns against the Saints he finished with 18 on the season.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
Playoff performance: Four catches for 204 yards and a touchdown vs. Pittsburgh
Thomas established himself as the No. 1 receiver for the Broncos and Tebow with his performance to close the regular season. He had three games with double digits in Fantasy points in his final five outings, and he was the star against the Steelers. Thomas will continue to improve as Tebow develops as a passer, and he is entering his third season in 2012. You can draft Thomas as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, but he can end up starting for you in all leagues based on his big-play ability. We hope Thomas can have another outstanding game against the Patriots in the divisional round to further solidify his value heading into next season.

Five losers

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals
Playoff performance: Seven carries for 14 yards and a touchdown at Houston
This might have been Benson's last game as a starting running back in the NFL, especially with the Bengals. He is a free agent this offseason, and Cincinnati might be ready for an upgrade. Benson was fine in 2011 with over 1,000 rushing yards and six touchdowns, but he had just six games with double digits in Fantasy points. Keep an eye on where he lands in 2012, and if he does get a featured role again then he could still be drafted as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy running back. But we expect him to be in a tandem next season, even with the Bengals if he returns, and his value is definitely on the decline.

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Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
Playoff performance: Did not play vs. Detroit
Will Ingram ever be a starting Fantasy option in the majority of leagues? It's not expected to happen in 2012 with Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas both back, and Chris Ivory will remain in the mix. Ingram (toe) is out for the rest of this season after being placed on injured reserve, and the Saints continue to march on without him. He will definitely have Fantasy value in 2012, and he should be considered a No. 3 running back with upside. But he might not be a starting option in the majority of leagues for a long time with how New Orleans throws the ball and with Sproles and Thomas under contract through 2014. Barring an injury, Ingram's Fantasy value will continue to be limited, which is shame given his immense potential.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons
Playoff performance: 199 passing yards at the Giants
Ryan will enter 2012 as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback, and he will be great value on Draft Day. But his poor performance against the Giants will keep him from being a Top 10 Fantasy option next year. He will enter the season behind Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Newton, Stafford, Vick, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Romo and Rivers. He could crack the Top 10 if Peyton Manning doesn't recover from his neck problem, but Ryan should not be considered an elite Fantasy option. He had seven games with at least 20 Fantasy points in 2011 and six of them came indoors. Until he becomes more consistent outside then his Fantasy value will be limited.

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions
Playoff performance: Six carries for 21 yards and two catches for 20 yards at New Orleans
Smith is a free agent this offseason, and we guarantee he will get more attention from other teams this year after no one signed him prior to 2011. He had a great regular season in limited action with double digits in Fantasy points in three of the seven games in which he appeared. But if he returns to Detroit next year then he will be in a timeshare with Mikel Leshoure, who was out in 2011 with a ruptured Achilles' tendon, and Jahvid Best, who expects to make a full recovery from his concussion problems. And he's unlikely to land a featured role with a new team. Smith should be considered a No. 3 Fantasy running back at best on Draft Day in 2012 depending on where he is playing.

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons
Playoff performance: 15 carries for 41 yards and one catch for 5 yards at the Giants
Turner was already on my bust list heading into 2012 before his performance against the Giants, and he is a running back on the decline. He had a successful season in 2011 with more than 1,300 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, but this is now three times in the past four years where he has at least 300 carries, which is beginning to take a toll. He is not a threat as a receiver, and the Falcons are trending toward a passing team with Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Turner will remain a candidate for double digits in touchdowns, but his yardage should begin to slip. I would consider him a No. 2 Fantasy running back in 2012, and he should not be drafted in the first round in the majority of formats.

Playoff Challenge

The Broncos ruined my team with their upset victory against the Steelers since I had Redman, Shaun Suisham and the Steelers DST in my lineup for the wildcard round. I had to make changes with at least three of my eight transactions.

Here is my roster for the divisional round:

QB – Drew Brees, Saints - 79
RB – Ray Rice, Ravens - 64
RB – Ryan Grant - 19
WR – Marques Colston, Saints - 37
WR – Robert Meachem, Saints - 14
TE – Jimmy Graham, Saints - 37
K – Billy Cundiff, Ravens - 15
DST - Ravens - 31

I ended up making four transactions to replace Sproles with Rice. Sproles is better suited to play at home -- he had two games with double digits in Fantasy points on the road and only one outdoors -- and Rice has a chance to lead the Ravens to the Super Bowl. I then went with Grant as my second running back based on his value at 19 units, and I'm going with Cundiff and the Ravens DST to fill out the rest of my roster. If the Saints and Ravens reach the Super Bowl then my team should be in good shape.

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Garrett: Murray tweaked hamstring
DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL
5/21/2013

News: Cowboys coach Jason Garrett told the media Tuesday running back DeMarco Murray tweaked a hamstring over the last week. The team opted to be conservative with him and had him sit out practice on Tuesday. Murray was spotted on the sidelines during the Cowboys' first day of OTA workouts.

Analysis: Murray's injury history goes a long way back -- and the Cowboys know it. Keeping him healthy will be a tough chore for the next several months but taking careful, proactive steps like this will keep him from being absent. His health will remain key as he's missed nine games over his first two seasons in the league and has had the injury bug biting him going back to his high school days. But Murray had 10-plus Fantasy points in half of his 10 games last season and has the confidence of the coaching staff. He's a moderately risky No. 2 Fantasy running back expected to get taken between 25th and 40th overall on Draft Day.

Amendola gets to work with Brady
Danny Amendola, WR, NE
5/21/2013

News: The media got to check out the Patriots' second day of OTA workouts in New England. The Boston Globe reports new Pats wideout Danny Amendola spent a lot of time with Tom Brady, working primarily in the slot. According to the Patriots' official website Amendola looked sharp, ran his routes well and got in and out of his breaks quickly. He appeared comfortable which shouldn't be surprising given his past work in Josh McDaniels' offense. "It's familiar," Amendola said. "When Josh was in St. Louis, I got to know it pretty good. It's a little more intricate out here. It's something to grasp. I'm learning every day. It's the verbiage. That's the most important thing, the vocabulary of the offense. I'm learning, day in and day out, studying at night."

Analysis: Amendola is vitally important to the Patriots' offense after the team let Wes Welker go in free agency last year. It's tough to expect Amendola to completely replace Welker in their scheme but he has the potential to be a major factor if he can stay healthy. That's a big if -- he's missed 20 games over the last two seasons. So long as you accept Amendola as an injury-risk who doesn't have the experience of being a volume receiver like Welker, you'll be fine. Amendola is safest as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver with a pick in Round 7 or 8.

MJD's training moves to Miami
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
5/21/2013

News: Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley confirmed that running back Maurice Jones-Drew will step up the intensity in his workouts in Miami with noted trainer Pete Bommarito. MJD is working his way back from a Lisfranc injury. Bradley is fine with the move because he and Jones-Drew are on the same page with where the running back is at, according to the Florida Times-Union. Bradley especially wanted Jones-Drew in camp while the team installed the offense. "It’s going to take some time and it should come back," Bradley said of Jones-Drew's injured foot. "We're just taking the next step in the rehab process."

Analysis: Expectations remain MJD will be ready for the start of training camp in July and potentially be on the field for a June minicamp. Fantasy owners need to see him before drafting to have some level of confidence in his game. The injury he suffered is a tough one to come back from. On the plus side, Jones-Drew had at least 1,600 total yards in each of his previous three seasons before 2012 when he held out of training camp and ultimately got hurt after six games. Some will be afraid to draft the 28-year-old but most owners should go ahead and consider Jones-Drew a Top 15 running back for now, making him worth a pick between 20th and 30th overall in drafts assuming he is a full participant in Jags camp. That seems to be on pace to happen.

Uninfected Gronk has surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
5/21/2013

News: Rob Gronkowski had successful surgery on his left forearm Monday and doctors found no infection inside according to multiple reports. He had a new plate installed in his arm to keep things in place inside his forearm and should be done having surgery there. A consultation on his back is expected within the next three to four weeks with surgery to potentially follow.

Analysis: Great news! Unless there's a setback with the arm or a serious issue with his back Gronkowski should be ready for the start of training camp. That makes him a safer pick in Fantasy Football since he'll have the time to get ready for the season and potentially play 16 games. We're not out of the woods yet but be ready to consider Gronk with a Top 20 pick in drafts this summer.

Romo out until minicamp
Tony Romo, QB, DAL
5/21/2013

News: The Dallas Morning News reports Tony Romo had a cyst removed from his back and will be out until at least Cowboys minicamp in June. He should be fine for training camp. "If this was the regular season and I had to play next week, I could," Romo said. "This is just about being smart. That’s why I did it now. This will have no effect on training camp. No way will it have an impact. And I still think there’s a good chance I’m on the field for minicamp."

Analysis: Romo isn't a quarterback anyone is targeting on Draft Day, he's more like a passer you'll settle for starting in Round 6. There's nothing wrong with that: Romo was one of 10 quarterbacks to average over 20 Fantasy points per game (in standard formats) and has consistently put up big numbers, albeit not amazing numbers. Fantasy owners can win with Romo as their starter.

Miller works with first team
Lamar Miller, RB, MIA
5/21/2013

News: The Miami Herald reports that Dolphins running back Lamar Miller opened with the first team during Tuesday's OTA workout. The report says Miller "showed his usual good burst." Daniel Thomas and Marcus Thigpen got work behind Miller.

Analysis: Miller is expected to start for the Dolphins this year, and he should enter training camp as a potential No. 2 Fantasy running back worth a pick as early as Round 4 in the majority of leagues. He recently said his goals for the season were 1,500 yards and 5.0 yards per carry. We hope he can live up to his words because he could be a special Fantasy option if that happens.

Bolden misses OTA workouts
Brandon Bolden, RB, NE
5/21/2013

News: The Boston Globe reports running back Brandon Bolden was absent from OTA practice Tuesday after spraining his ankle while training. He's expected to return in late May/early June.

Analysis: Bolden is expected to be buried on the depth chart behind starter Stevan Ridley, among others. He's unlikely to help Fantasy owners in 2013 so long as Ridley is healthy.

Taylor has hernia surgery
Jamar Taylor, CB, MIA
5/21/2013

News: Dolphins rookie cornerback Jamar Taylor had surgery to repair a hernia and will cost him up to three weeks of practice time. He's a candidate to be back for a June minicamp and should be OK for the start of training camp.

Analysis: Taylor was impressive at the Senior Bowl and certainly erased any concerns about his overall athleticism with a stellar performance at the combine. Taylor is a better all-around player than former Boise State standout Kyle Wilson, who was selected by the Jets 29th overall in 2010. But since he's a corner, he has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in most standard IDP leagues, and he's only worth a late-round pick in rookie-only IDP formats.

Goodson will plead not guilty
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
5/21/2013

News: The Newark Star-Ledger has learned Jets running back Mike Goodson will plead not guilty to drug and weapons charges stemming from a mid-May arrest. His lawyer is confident jail time will be avoided. A hearing is scheduled for June 12.

Analysis: Goodson is taking in Jets workouts from the sideline, a sure sign that his roster spot is up in the air. Between the courts and the league there's no guarantee that Goodson will play for all of the 2013 season. For now owners shouldn't have him on their radars, though if his attorney is as innocent as he suggests, that would change before the majority of people hold their Fantasy drafts.

Giants remain confident with Cruz
Victor Cruz, WR, NYG
5/21/2013

News: USA Today reports that Giants chairman Steve Tisch remains confident a deal with receiver Victor Cruz is coming soon. "We're talking. (Cruz's agent) Tom Condon is talking to (Giants general manager) Jerry (Reese) and I'm personally confident that Victor wants to be a Giant, will be a Giant," Tisch said. "He's a great guy. It's just taking its time." The report says Cruz and the Giants have made some progress but a deal isn't imminent, despite a report from the New York Post stating the sides were at the "2-yard line." At this point, it seems they're barely in the red zone, but things could change as the spring winds down. Cruz has yet to sign the tender he was extended as a restricted free agent that would pay him $2.879 million. The Giants could lower the rate to $630,000 if Cruz hasn't signed by June 17, but that might only strain the negotiations.

Analysis: We hope that Cruz is signed prior to training camp because we don't want to see a potential holdout. Continue to monitor what develops, and if Cruz signs on time then he would remain a high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick as early as Round 4. If he ends up holding out then his value will decline.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings