Offseason Extra: A letter from the future

Senior Fantasy Writer

Jan. 12, 2012 1:39 PM ET

The following is my annual fictitious letter from the future. It's meant to get everyone thinking about next season since the 2011 regular season is in the history books.

It's more fun than analytical, though some things I refer to here you'll read about before you draft in the summer. Read it, enjoy it, react to it.

Greetings from the future!

Super Bowl XLVII just wrapped up in New Orleans, where for the first time ever the host city's football team played in the game. New Orleans' defense proved to be the difference in their victory over New England (its defense improved after last year, too). Both Drew Brees and league MVP Tom Brady passed for over 350 yards in the game, which wasn't surprising given that they both topped that mark seven times each during the regular season.

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As expected, passing was still the vehicle of choice for NFL offenses as defenses remain crippled by the NFL's rules. Only three defenses gave up fewer than 22 passing touchdowns on the year. After 10 quarterbacks threw for over 4,000 yards in 2011, 15 did it in 2012 including the Bengals' Andy Dalton, the Colts' Andrew Luck and the Jets' Peyton Manning.

Speaking of those New York Mannings, it was a stunner that Eli Manning had the better season with the Giants than Peyton with the Jets (he signed with them after his falling out with the Colts during the offseason but didn't have the receiving help he's had in the past). Both played well enough, but Eli finally bested his brother statistically across the board in a year where they both played every game.

As for that Luck kid, his first year was mostly a success (five 300-yard games, 11 games with two-plus touchdowns, six with two-plus interceptions). But the Colts decision to side with him and let Manning go made the rest of their team talented as they had the cap space to add key free agents to their defense. Finishing 8-8 gives them hope for the future. Robert Griffin III didn't do quite as well with the Redskins, but Mike Shanahan is still optimistic that they can compete soon.

Cam Newton also delivered a strong stat line again, though Fantasy owners were disappointed that he scored only nine touchdowns on the ground. Hopefully the 4,300 passing yards and stunningly low 10 interceptions made up for it. It only helped that Rob Chudzinski stayed with the Panthers, though speculation is already rampant that he's in line to take over the offensively-challenged Bears.

Quarterbacks didn't have all the fun -- but they did have plenty of Fantasy points. While that didn't diminish how well some running backs did, it did make it increasingly clear that owning a stud passer was a key to making the playoffs in most leagues. But it didn't hurt if you had a stud rusher or two, either. LeSean McCoy was awesome in his contract year, finishing as the top back in Fantasy by just a handful of points over another contract-year rusher, Arian Foster. Both topped 1,500 total yards and 10 total touchdowns, the new barometer for an elite running back.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, DeMarco Murray, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart and Fred Jackson got close, and Darren McFadden would have topped the mark if not for his second serious foot injury in as many seasons. And Adrian Peterson would have hit the mark with ease had he played a full season -- his 12 games still produced great stats, but he was the only rusher who had a serious injury in the 2011 regular season to come back and play well in 2012. Jamaal Charles, Rashard Mendenhall, Tim Hightower, Knowshon Moreno and Jahvid Best all struggled to get back to their previous form.

As for concerns that the running back position is getting too top-heavy, the future is indeed bright. The Saints' Mark Ingram, Detroit's Mikel Leshoure, the Patriots' Stevan Ridley, Bilal Powell of the Jets and the Bengals' Trent Richardson are all in a position to be excellent Fantasy options next season.

Calvin Johnson still led all receivers in everything, but few others have as much hype around them as he does. The Bengals' A.J. Green and Atlanta's Julio Jones realized their potential with 1,200-yard, 10-touchdown seasons in their second years, and the Bears bold move to trade up for Justin Blackmon paid off as he got close to those numbers as a rookie. But few other wideouts did enough to make Fantasy owners want to rush out and draft them next year. Darlings from 2011 such as Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson and Percy Harvin all regressed while fringe studs like Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe and Vincent Jackson (all on new teams -- the Buccaneers, Jaguars and Rams, respectively) disappointed.

In fact, there were far more busts at receiver than there were in the past, and a lot of it had to do with more teams utilizing the spread offense and leaning on a slew of receivers instead of just two or three.

That, and tight ends continued to play bigger roles.

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Copying the blueprints laid out in New England, New Orleans and San Diego, several tight ends posted over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns in 2012. The Titans' Jared Cook, Washington's Fred Davis, Dustin Keller of the Jets and Atlanta's Tony Gonzalez (going out with a bang!) all joined Jimmy Graham with those tallies. Rob Gronkowski had double-digit touchdowns but fell just short of 1,000 yards while Aaron Hernandez had the 1,000 yards but not the double-digit touchdowns. And Antonio Gates was set to get close to 1,000 yards but got hurt, crushing the Chargers' playoff chances and thus ousting Norv Turner out of San Diego.

Additionally, there are several young tight ends on the rise that makes the position very deep heading into 2013. Minnesota's Kyle Rudolph, the Rams' Lance Kendricks, the Browns' Orson Charles and Buffalo's Coby Fleener all made moves that will inspire Fantasy owners into the future. The retirements of Gonzalez and Dallas Clark won't hurt the Fantasy landscape at tight end a bit.

I'll leave you with these three tidbits from 2012:

• Brandon Lloyd's revival continued in a big way. He hooked up with Josh McDaniels again -- this time with the Patriots -- and did a tremendous job in single coverage while Wes Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez also drew tough coverage. Lloyd actually hurt those guys' stats.

• Peyton Hillis replaced LeGarrette Blount in Tampa Bay and formed a pretty good tandem with rookie rusher LaMichael James. Hillis was very much under the radar in drafts for fear of another poor season, but the Bucs did a good job utilizing him (they kept their West Coast offense)

• What would a letter from the future be without a Tim Tebow update? No one worked harder this offseason to improve than Tebow, who hit the practice fields with John Elway and a couple of coaches and ball boys. At first defenses had an answer for the Broncos after spending all offseason working to contain Tebow, but then he began using all sorts of screen passes to his advantage and his weapons did a great job of getting yardage after the catch, especially because defenses were focused on stopping him and not his wide-open receivers just a few yards away. Tebow's completion percentage was much improved and he finished as a Top 12 Fantasy quarterback. Not bad for a guy drafted consistently in the eighth round back in the summer.

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Griffin to be ready by camp?
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
11:54 AM

News: Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan suggested Thursday that quarterback Robert Griffin III has a chance to be ready for the start of training camp. "We're hoping," he said. "He's working extremely hard." Shanahan also said he wouldn't be comfortable starting Griffin without some offseason or preseason work. Griffin was spotted by NFL Network dropping back on passes to receivers while wearing a helmet along with a brace on his right knee on Thursday.

Analysis: It would be incredible for RG3 to be ready to go by late July, less than seven months after getting hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back unless they were convinced he was totally healthy. That seems risky, but for now any positive progress is great for prospective Fantasy owners. Here's a gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Shanahan: Garcon had surgery
Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS
1:41 PM

News: Mike Shanahan disclosed Thursday that wide receiver Pierre Garcon had chest surgery this offseason, but the Washington Times clarified it as a minor procedure on his labrum, which is in the shoulder . It appears Garcon is not a candidate to miss any serious playing time, however. "I think he's really unbelievable. He's come back so fast ..." Shanahan said of his receiver. "lifting weights he shouldn't be able to lift."

Analysis: Garcon is also still battling a toe injury that capsized much of his first year in D.C. As long as he's healthy for the start of the season he's got plenty of upside to offer Fantasy owners. Garcon finished last year averaging 14.4 yards per catch, the second-highest average in his career, but he had a four-year-low 44 receptions with a three-year-worst four scores. Staying healthy is obviously the most important thing he can do to keep him relevant in Fantasy Football but one recurrence of the toe injury could wipe out several games. If he can stay upright -- and assuming quarterback Robert Griffin III is healthy with his knee -- Garcon can be considered a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a mid-round pick.

Casey has knee surgery
James Casey, TE, PHI
11:42 AM

News: USA Today reports that Eagles tight end James Casey will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean out loose cartilage his right knee and will be out of action for the rest of the spring. A team spokesman said Casey should be ready to go by the start of training camp. Casey signed a three-year deal with $14.5 million as one of the first additions for the Eagles in a busy opening few days in free agency. The former Texans fullback/tight end is expected to play a key role in coach Chip Kelly's offense.

Analysis: Casey had career-highs with 34 receptions, 330 yards and three touchdowns last year, numbers that could spike with the Eagles because of the expected design of the offense and the up-tempo style that will result in more snaps. Like any player getting used to Kelly's offense, Casey would surely benefit from more reps through the rest of organized team activities and minicamp, so being sidelined for the next month isn't ideal. Still, if all goes as well as planned, Casey should get plenty of time on the field in July and August as long as he's healthy. He's not worth drafting in most leagues, but Casey is someone to monitor as a potential waiver wire addition if he's fine as expected following this procedure.

Manning to CBS: My arm is stronger
Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
11:34 AM

News: In an exclusive Q&A with CBSSports.com NFL Columnist Pete Prisco, Peyton Manning admitted to being nervous about his arm as far back as June 2011 when he had a hard time throwing at all, then again last season when he forced some things in a road game at Atlanta. But a year removed from rehabbing his arm, Manning sounds confident in his skills. "I feel much more comfortable than I was last year. I am stronger than I was last year. I am throwing the ball better now in May of 2013 than I did in May of 2012 -- significantly better," he said. "I got better throughout the season. I am not doing the monthly update reports anymore. I am past that."

Analysis: The Broncos will attempt to move into a more up-tempo approach this season and added Wes Welker to an already stacked receiving corps. Manning should be in for a very good season, perhaps even better than the one he had last year. Manning is a candidate for 300 yards and at least two scores every week. He should be considered an elite passer worth a pick between the middle of Round 2 and the end of Round 3, depending on your league's size and scoring system.

Richardson misses practice
Trent Richardson, RB, CLE
10:57 AM

News: Browns coach Rob Chudzinski comfirmed running back Trent Richardson missed practice Thursday with a lower leg muscle pull. "It's precautionary," Chudzinski said. "We are holding him out. He may miss minicamp in a week and a half. I'm not sure, we'll just take it day-by-day."

Analysis: The Browns can't take chances with their prized running back, particularly since he'll be featured in an offense that will lean heavily on him. Richardson established himself as one of the top young running backs in the league last season with 267 carries for 950 yards with 11 touchdowns and another 51 catches for 367 yards and a score. He should be able to better those stats this season as long as he's healthy. You're taking him with a Top 5 pick.

Welker expects catches to drop
Wes Welker, WR, DEN
10:55 AM

News: The Denver Post reports that new Broncos receiver Wes Welker doesn't expect to reach his average for receptions, which was 112 over the past six seasons with the Patriots. "If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we're in trouble," Welker said. "(The catches) are not the goal," Welker said. "The goal is to go out there and help your team win games. However many catches that is, however many blocks that takes, however many routes I've got to run, whatever. I think we all feel the same way about that." The report says that in New England, the Patriots don't feature their outside receivers. In recent years, they have become a tight end-slot attack. Not so the Broncos. For all the questions about Peyton Manning's arm strength last year, he threw enough outside the numbers to help Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker develop into one of the NFL's top receiver tandems. "I mean, we have two really good guys. We can't ignore them," Welker said. "If one guy is catching 112 balls, the defense is focusing in on that guy. We want defenses focusing on everybody and having to worry about everybody. That was one of the main reasons I came here."

Analysis: Now, before you downgrade Welker, keep in mind it's not like the plan calls for him to go from 112 catches to 50. Manning won't forget his friends, but he won't ignore the new guy, either. Welker's Fantasy value definitely takes a hit going from New England to Denver, but he remains a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick in Round 4 or 5 in standard leagues. In PPR formats, look for Welker to be drafted as early as Round 3 since he should still be around 85-plus catches despite the drop-off with the Broncos.

Harvin to get time at running back
Percy Harvin, WR, SEA
10:46 AM

News: The Seattle Times reports that new Seattle receiver Percy Harvin is already making an impact. "His talent level is unbelievable, off the charts," said quarterback Russell Wilson. "He brings an explosive mentality to the game, which a lot of our guys already have. But to have him is truly tremendous. He's a guy that's been one of the best football players in the National Football League for the past several years." Harvin, 24, has averaged 1,800 total yards in four seasons and was on pace for 2,400 yards in 2012 — which would have led the NFL — before an ankle injury ended his season. In those nine games, he had 62 catches — 12 more than any Seahawk — for 677 yards. He also had 96 yards rushing and 574 yards on kickoff returns, including a 105-yard touchdown return. The Seahawks plan to use him similarly. He'll likely line up in the slot as his regular spot, but figures to get used outside, as well, and should see his share of handoffs and kickoff returns. "I'll be moving around — pretty much all around," said Harvin. "There'll be a little bit of running back coming up. But right now, we're just trying to get the foundation set, just running the base plays, and we'll see where it goes from there."

Analysis: We're excited about Harvin in Seattle because he should be able to remain highly involved on offense with better talent around him. Harvin remains a solid No. 1 Fantasy receiver, and he's worth drafting in Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, especially if he continues to see time in the backfield.

Rodgers: Cobb could catch 100 passes
Randall Cobb, WR, GB
10:37 AM

News: ESPN reports that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has high expectations for third-year receiver Randall Cobb this season. Last year, Cobb made an enormous jump in his second NFL season. With Greg Jennings out with a torn abdominal muscle, Cobb played 733 snaps and caught a team-high 80 passes for 954 yards and added eight touchdowns. Rodgers thinks Cobb can do more. "I think Randall Cobb is a guy who could be a 100-plus catch guy every year," Rodgers said.

Analysis: We don't think Rodgers is far off with Cobb, who could take the next step in his career in his third season. The Packers as a team have high expectations for Cobb, and we like him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option. Plan on drafting Cobb in Round 4 in the majority of leagues, with his value slightly higher in PPR formats.

Williams played 'scared' in '12
Ryan Williams, RB, ARI
10:08 AM

News: Cardinals running back Ryan Williams told the Arizona Republic that he was more concerned about his knee than his play last season, saying he played scared. Williams came back from a torn patella tendon suffered in 2011 and wasn't ready for the physical punishment that comes with playing running back. Per the story, he got nervous when then-quarterback Kevin Kolb would call '39 toss' because it exposed his right side and his injured knee. The lack of confidence left him "pretty much scared all last year to get the ball in my hands." He added hurting his shoulder was a "blessing" because it allowed him time to get his knee feeling good. Now he says he's not scared anymore. "This is the healthiest I've felt in the past two years," Williams said. "It feels good to be able to run like myself, instinctive and not having to think about what I’m doing, just going out and doing it. I've been working real hard, so things are looking good. My stars are aligned this year."

Analysis: In the story coach Bruce Arians noted that Williams has his mobility back and is someone to watch when the pads come on. Williams has to fight for playing time after the Cardinals drafted Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington and signed Rashard Mendenhall. For now he's no better than a late-round flier but if he looks good in camp and runs with confidence then we could see him getting a decent amount of work.

Harbaugh: Crabtree will play in '13
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
8:45 AM

News: 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh indicated that Michael Crabtree's torn right Achilles will not cost him the entire season. With surgery already done, it is believed Crabtree will return within six months. Linebacker Patrick Willis said Crabtree went down after making a "simple, normal cut" after going in motion and before starting his route during 7 on 7 drills. "Crab is one of those tough guys. He can get hit hard, and he'll bounce right back up," Willis told the San Jose Mercury News. "Yesterday he stayed down a little longer than normal. You say a little prayer and hope it wasn't as bad as it looked. Unfortunately it is."

Analysis: Crabtree was expected to post ridiculous numbers in 2013 after becoming Colin Kaepernick's go-to receiver last year and his promise to dedicate himself to being the Niners' top receiver this year. Eventually he should return and contribute to the Niners but the earliest it seems he could be back is Week 12 at Washington. If you draft Crabtree with what would now be a late-round pick, you'd have to dedicate a bench spot to him for most of the regular season with no guarantee you'd get him in your lineup at 100 percent, if at all. We'd rather spend the same late-round pick on Anquan Boldin or maybe even A.J. Jenkins knowing both will see a lot of work in San Francisco with Crabtree sidelined.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings