Tuesday January 24, 2012 - 11:24 AM

Playoff Extra: Silver lining for Rice, Gore

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
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Billy Cundiff's missed field goal to end the AFC Championship Game at New England on Sunday might have saved Ray Rice from a dismal season in 2012. The same goes for Kyle Williams and his problems on special teams against the Giants in the NFC Championship Game when it comes to Frank Gore.

If Rice and Gore had reached the Super Bowl then we could have been looking at two potential bust options next season.

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As we pointed out last year with Rashard Mendenhall and will address again prior to Super Bowl XLVI, featured running backs who play in the final game of the season tend to struggle the following year or get hurt. It happened to Mendenhall this season.

Lucky for Fantasy owners, Ahmad Bradshaw is not a featured running back since he shares carries with Brandon Jacobs. The same goes for the New England backfield, which is led by BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but he is far from a workhorse rusher.

Rice will now be considered a Top 3 overall selection on Draft Day, and Gore is worth drafting toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 as a top-end No. 2 Fantasy running back. Both of them -- for Fantasy reasons -- were saved by not playing in the Super Bowl. Consider them winners even for losing.

Three winners

Victor Cruz, WR, Giants
Playoff performance: 10 catches for 142 yards at San Francisco
As we've pointed out throughout the playoffs, Hakeem Nicks is still the Giants receiver to target on Draft Day 2012, and he should be selected ahead of Cruz. But Cruz is no slouch, and he should remain a dominant Fantasy option in 2012 as the No. 2 receiver for Eli Manning. Cruz set the single-season receiving record for the Giants this year with 1,536 yards, and he was the No. 4 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues. He should be considered a Top 10 Fantasy receiver coming into next season, and he is worth drafting in Round 3 in all leagues.

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
Playoff performance: Three catches for 112 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Giants
We hope Davis can carry his performance from the playoffs over to next season because he was a beast. He had 10 catches for 292 yards and four touchdowns against New Orleans and the Giants, and he deserves to be drafted as an elite option in 2012. You can argue that Davis is a Top 5 tight end in the majority of leagues, but I have him ranked No. 6 behind Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, Antonio Gates and Jason Witten. Plan on drafting Davis in Round 4 in all leagues.

Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens
Playoff performance: Three catches for 82 yards and a touchdown at New England
Anquan Boldin had a quality performance against the Patriots with six catches for 101 yards, but he was matched up with Julian Edelman, a converted receiver playing cornerback, for most of his production. Smith will be the No. 1 receiver for the Ravens in 2012, and he has higher upside in Fantasy leagues. We consider Smith a No. 3 Fantasy option heading into next season, and Boldin is more of a reserve. Joe Flacco, for possibly the first time in his career, finally has two reliable receivers, with Smith the one to target on Draft Day.

Three losers

Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
Playoff performance: One catch for 3 yards vs. the Giants
Crabtree was barely a Top 35 Fantasy receiver this season, and he is among the worst No. 1 receivers in the NFL. He disappeared against the Giants, and Davis is the only receiving option worth trusting for the 49ers in 2012. Crabtree can be drafted as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver next season with a mid-round pick, but don't plan on starting him most weeks. He only had four games with double digits in Fantasy points this year, and that kind of production should be expected again next season.

Ed Dickson, TE, Ravens
Playoff performance: Two catches for 23 yards at New England
Dickson and Dennis Pitta both have the chance to be quality Fantasy options, but they continue to split production, which hurts their value. Pitta had the better game against the Patriots with five catches for 41 yards and a touchdown, but they will likely go back and forth again in 2012. Dickson had the better Fantasy season this year, but Pitta could be the better option next season. Our advice is to avoid both on Draft Day in the majority of leagues and use the hotter hand when you need a bye-week replacement.

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Mario Manningham, WR, Giants
Playoff performance: One catch for 17 yards and a touchdown at San Francisco
Manningham has a touchdown in all three playoff games for the Giants, and he has proven to be a quality Fantasy option when healthy the past two years. But he will likely leave the Giants as a free agent this offseason, especially with Nicks and Cruz now the featured targets for Manning. We hope Manningham can land a starting job with a new team, but if he returns to the Giants his role and Fantasy value will be limited. Hopefully a strong performance in the Super Bowl will help him going forward.

Playoff Challenge

Not that I had a chance at winning, but my final Playoff Challenge roster is now down to just four players in Manning, Nicks, Manningham and Aaron Hernandez. Hopefully they can accrue some quality production in the Super Bowl to help my final total.

For those of you who still have transactions, here are my final rankings for the Super Bowl:

Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Eli Manning, Giants

Running Back
1. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
2. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
3. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
4. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
5. D.J. Ware, Giants

Wide Receiver
1. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
2. Wes Welker, Patriots
3. Victor Cruz, Giants
4. Mario Manningham, Giants
5. Deion Branch, Patriots

Tight End
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
3. Travis Beckum, Giants
4. Jake Ballard, Giants
5. Bear Pascoe, Giants

Kicker
1. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
2. Lawrence Tynes, Giants

DST
1. Giants
2. Patriots

Final score: Patriots 30, Giants 24. Both quarterbacks throw three touchdowns, but the Patriots get two more field goals from Gostkowski. This time, Brady throws the game-winning touchdown in the end with Manning on the sideline.

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Winslow a 'rotational player?'
Kellen Winslow, TE, SEA
5/25/2012

News: Kellen Winslow became a Seahawk recently, and he's spoken highly of his new team. But it remains how they'll use him and how often they'll use him. According to SiriusXM NFL Radio, a league personnel executive believes that Winslow's best days are behind him. "We talked to the Bucs before the draft and talked about (Winslow) further internally," said the source. "We just didn't think he could be more than a rotational player at this point (in his career) after examining his tape and performance."

Analysis: Winslow had 75 receptions for 763 yards and two TDs in 2011 and has caught at least 66 passes in each of his last three years while not missing a game. There is definitely a perception that he's old and over the hill, which his receiving average (10.2 yards per catch last year) supports. And he joins a crowded tight end corps in Seattle, but should be a fairly regular player in the offense. Problem is, he hasn't been productive enough to be considered reliable for Fantasy use week after week. He's fine as a No. 2 Fantasy TE worth a late pick, but don't expect him to put up huge numbers.

Charles to rest until camp
Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
5/25/2012

News: The Kansas City Star reports that the Chiefs will rest running back Jamaal Charles until training camp in late July. He is not expected to participate in their minicamp as he continues to rehab and work his way back from a torn ACL suffered last September. Head coach Romeo Crennel hopes Charles will be cleared in time for camp.

Analysis: Charles has been vocal about being ready for the season, calling himself hungry and passionate to return to form. But the fact remains that he's coming off of a major injury and isn't promised to have any of the explosiveness he had before he got hurt. Tack on the Chiefs' addition of Peyton Hillis (Charles thinks Hillis will get the tough yards and goal-line work like Thomas Jones was supposed to previously), and there's a limit to Charles' 2012 expectations. So long as Charles proves that he's ready to roll, Fantasy owners should be optimistic. Assuming he's fine, Charles will be worth taking in the early rounds on Draft Day, but more as a No. 2 Fantasy RB. Plan on drafting Charles between 25th and 35th overall in all leagues.

Source: Nicks could return before camp
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
5/25/2012

News: ESPN reports that a source familiar with the broken bone in Hakeem Nicks' foot says the receiver might miss four-to-six weeks recovering from the injury and not the 12-week timeframe the Giants said on Thursday. Nicks fractured the fifth metatarsal of his right foot during an OTA practice. The team is hoping to have him back at some point during training camp and the preseason.

Analysis: Unless the diagnosis on Nicks' foot changes, we're not believers that he'll be ready in six weeks and thus long before the start of training camp. Nicks' teammate, Prince Amukamara, took 15 weeks before he was comfortable practicing last year according to the Newark Star-Ledger and he had the same injury. Nicks has had all sorts of issues with hamstrings, knees and his feet over the years. So long as he is healthy for the start of the season and gets some work in camp and a preseason game or two, the injury is more of a reminder that he's injury prone and less of a factor on his 2012 season. We'll see if this lasts into late August and the regular season; for now expect his stock to slip in drafts. He'll be a Round 3-4 choice as a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver.

Roethlisberger admits to issues with new playbook
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
5/25/2012

News: Ben Roethlisberger's transition to new offensive coordinator Todd Haley's playbook is not going as smoothly as Steelers fans had hoped. Roethlisberger said Thursday that so far it's been "frustrating at times" but that he's going to put in "extra work" to understand what Haley wants him to do. "I think coach (Haley) really wants to challenge us," Big Ben said on a radio interview, per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "Me, maybe, in particular, I think he felt like I was real comfortable with the old offense, which ... I don't know why that's a bad thing. But I'm not the head coach."

Analysis: There's all sorts of talk that Haley wants Roethlisberger to stay in the pocket to avoid excess hits and that Haley wants to run the ball more. We're not sure how this is going to play out, but we do think there's a chance Roethlisberger could attempt a ton of passes given that Rashard Mendenhall is out and Isaac Redman, while talented, might not be a 20-touch back from week to week. Much of the offense might fall on Roethlisberger's shoulders. We consider Big Ben a low-end No. 1 Fantasy QB in all leagues well worth a mid-round pick.

Bradford's ankle 'getting there'
Sam Bradford, QB, STL
5/25/2012

News: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford said his left ankle, injured in October at Green Bay, is nearly 100 percent. "It's getting there," he said. "It feels better every week -- less soreness, more things I can do. It's definitely on the right track."

Analysis: There's no questioning his arm as several Rams receivers, including their rookies, have been in awe over his passing skills. Bradford is continuing to learn the Rams' new offense and says it's close to the West Coast offense he ran two season ago. But with a so-so offensive line and an unproven receiving corps, now's not the time to call Bradford a breakout candidate. He should have some good games, but no one should consider him either a Fantasy starter or a blue chip prospect. For now we're resigned to calling him a late-round pick as a good, not great, No. 2 quarterback.

Titans' Palmer breaks down QB battle
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, TEN
5/25/2012

News: It's no secret that the Titans will have a competition for the starting quarterback job between veteran Matt Hasselbeck and second-year gunslinger Jake Locker. What remains to be seen is when they'll name a starter. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer told the media Thursday that the job is up for grabs, that no preseason starts have been promised and that the coaching staff will pick a winner based on who can lead the team to wins, starting in Week 1 against the Patriots. Palmer said that while Locker's mobility is very appealing, Hasselbeck's experience and body of work from last season also gives him a chance to remain the starter. "Jake may not give all the other guys the opportunity to make plays like Matt does, but Jake can make plays with his legs," Palmer concluded. "When you add up how many plays Matt can make with the team and how many plays Jake can make with the team then you kind of have an idea who's going to give us the best chance to win."

Analysis: Hasselbeck started every game for the Titans in 2011 and threw for 3,571 yards with 18 scores and 14 interceptions. But when Locker did play, he did well, passing for four touchdowns with no interceptions and rushing for 56 yards on eight carries with a touchdowns run. Locker's completion percentage continued to be an eyesore (34 of 66 passing for 51.5 pct.), but the stats speak for themselves. Unless Locker can really prove that he's progressed as a passer, Hasselbeck is likely to take this job -- though there's no promise he'll start every game. Neither Titans QB should be drafted with anything more than a late-round pick. We'll keep you posted on the battle.

Lloyd already up to speed with Pats
Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE
5/25/2012

News: New Patriots receiver Brandon Lloyd has been impressive during the team's OTAs, but many people expected that. After all, Lloyd is on his third stop with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and knows the playbook and play calls like the back of his hand. Lloyd has been so impressive that the Boston Globe reports that Patriots quarterbacks have been looking for him all week because he's been exactly where he needs to be on every play. Lloyd was coy when it came to his role and his goals for this season but gave a pretty simple explanation on why he wanted to follow McDaniels to New England. "You find something good, you stick with it," he said. "I think that's the case for everybody, with everything in life."

Analysis: Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five scores last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator, and that came on the heels of a 77-catch, 1,448-yard, 11-touchdown season with McDaniels in Denver. He'll probably see a dip in opportunities because he'll share the field with so many other great weapons there. But he should still be about as productive as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver and should be drafted as such with a mid-round pick.

Tamme: Hillman looks good
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN
5/25/2012

News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme gave an encouraging scouting report on rookie rusher Ronnie Hillman. "He seems to have a lot of quickness," Tamme said. "I've got to see him carry a few and catch some passes, he seems like a guy who can really move and sort of be a threat from the scatback-type position."

Analysis: Yep, that sounds like Hillman, who averaged over 130 total yards per game in 2011 with 20 total touchdowns while breaking some of Marshall Faulk's records at San Diego State. Hillman isn't a big back (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) but definitely plays bigger than he is. He's done good work between the tackles but is better known for his lateral agility and breakaway speed. Landing in Denver is nice since he won't be stuck behind a young back for long -- Willis McGahee will turn 31 in October and Knowshon Moreno is coming off of a torn ACL. We could see Hillman contribute this season, especially if he can perfect his pass blocking and receiving skills. Expect him to be taken late in all seasonal drafts as well as with a mid-to-late pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a second-round pick in rookie-only formats.

Tamme talks offense, role
Jacob Tamme, TE, DEN
5/25/2012

News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme sounded very excited to follow quarterback Peyton Manning to Denver from Indy, adding that he "looks great." Tamme's also excited about the direction of the new offense, calling it a mix of what he did with Manning with the Colts and what offensive coordinator Mike McCoy wants to do. On the topic of his specific role with the Broncos, Tamme didn't want to give away much but did offer what he thinks is great about being a tight end. "I'm comfortable in slot and love that, but I would say I lined up on the line of scrimmage more than everywhere else [with the Colts]," Tamme said. " ... We should be able to move around and what we're going to do offensively, hopefully, we'll be able to move around some. I think that's what's great about playing tight end these days, you get to do everything. It's what makes the position a lot of fun."

Analysis: If we're reading between the lines, the Broncos could use Tamme as a tight end, slot receiver and H-back this season, all roles he's capable of playing as evidenced by his time in Indianapolis. Being comfortable with Manning is also built-in thanks to their relationship back in Indiana. Tamme had just 177 yards on 19 catches in 2011 with one score, but he worked behind starter Dallas Clark in a Manning-less Colts offense. In 10 games without Dallas Clark in 2010, Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns. Expect him to have some Clark-like potential and thus get swiped with a middle- to late-round pick in drafts this summer as a borderline No. 1/No. 2 TE.

Hill lines up as starter in OTAs
Stephen Hill, WR, NYJ
5/25/2012

News: Jets rookie receiver Stephen Hill lined up opposite Santonio Holmes with the first-team offense during their recent OTAs. He caught a 75-yard touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez, burning cornerback Kyle Wilson in the process, according to the Newark Star-Ledger.

Analysis: The Jets aren't going to have a dominant pass attack, so that could limit Hill's production. But he does have the chance for plenty of playing time, which is a plus. He's worth a late-round pick in seasonal formats, a middle- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a Top 20 pick in rookie-only drafts.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, WAS, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings