Playoff Extra: Silver lining for Rice, Gore

Senior Fantasy Writer

Jan. 24, 2012 11:24 AM ET

Billy Cundiff's missed field goal to end the AFC Championship Game at New England on Sunday might have saved Ray Rice from a dismal season in 2012. The same goes for Kyle Williams and his problems on special teams against the Giants in the NFC Championship Game when it comes to Frank Gore.

If Rice and Gore had reached the Super Bowl then we could have been looking at two potential bust options next season.

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As we pointed out last year with Rashard Mendenhall and will address again prior to Super Bowl XLVI, featured running backs who play in the final game of the season tend to struggle the following year or get hurt. It happened to Mendenhall this season.

Lucky for Fantasy owners, Ahmad Bradshaw is not a featured running back since he shares carries with Brandon Jacobs. The same goes for the New England backfield, which is led by BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but he is far from a workhorse rusher.

Rice will now be considered a Top 3 overall selection on Draft Day, and Gore is worth drafting toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 as a top-end No. 2 Fantasy running back. Both of them -- for Fantasy reasons -- were saved by not playing in the Super Bowl. Consider them winners even for losing.

Three winners

Victor Cruz, WR, Giants
Playoff performance: 10 catches for 142 yards at San Francisco
As we've pointed out throughout the playoffs, Hakeem Nicks is still the Giants receiver to target on Draft Day 2012, and he should be selected ahead of Cruz. But Cruz is no slouch, and he should remain a dominant Fantasy option in 2012 as the No. 2 receiver for Eli Manning. Cruz set the single-season receiving record for the Giants this year with 1,536 yards, and he was the No. 4 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues. He should be considered a Top 10 Fantasy receiver coming into next season, and he is worth drafting in Round 3 in all leagues.

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
Playoff performance: Three catches for 112 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Giants
We hope Davis can carry his performance from the playoffs over to next season because he was a beast. He had 10 catches for 292 yards and four touchdowns against New Orleans and the Giants, and he deserves to be drafted as an elite option in 2012. You can argue that Davis is a Top 5 tight end in the majority of leagues, but I have him ranked No. 6 behind Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, Antonio Gates and Jason Witten. Plan on drafting Davis in Round 4 in all leagues.

Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens
Playoff performance: Three catches for 82 yards and a touchdown at New England
Anquan Boldin had a quality performance against the Patriots with six catches for 101 yards, but he was matched up with Julian Edelman, a converted receiver playing cornerback, for most of his production. Smith will be the No. 1 receiver for the Ravens in 2012, and he has higher upside in Fantasy leagues. We consider Smith a No. 3 Fantasy option heading into next season, and Boldin is more of a reserve. Joe Flacco, for possibly the first time in his career, finally has two reliable receivers, with Smith the one to target on Draft Day.

Three losers

Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
Playoff performance: One catch for 3 yards vs. the Giants
Crabtree was barely a Top 35 Fantasy receiver this season, and he is among the worst No. 1 receivers in the NFL. He disappeared against the Giants, and Davis is the only receiving option worth trusting for the 49ers in 2012. Crabtree can be drafted as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver next season with a mid-round pick, but don't plan on starting him most weeks. He only had four games with double digits in Fantasy points this year, and that kind of production should be expected again next season.

Ed Dickson, TE, Ravens
Playoff performance: Two catches for 23 yards at New England
Dickson and Dennis Pitta both have the chance to be quality Fantasy options, but they continue to split production, which hurts their value. Pitta had the better game against the Patriots with five catches for 41 yards and a touchdown, but they will likely go back and forth again in 2012. Dickson had the better Fantasy season this year, but Pitta could be the better option next season. Our advice is to avoid both on Draft Day in the majority of leagues and use the hotter hand when you need a bye-week replacement.

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Mario Manningham, WR, Giants
Playoff performance: One catch for 17 yards and a touchdown at San Francisco
Manningham has a touchdown in all three playoff games for the Giants, and he has proven to be a quality Fantasy option when healthy the past two years. But he will likely leave the Giants as a free agent this offseason, especially with Nicks and Cruz now the featured targets for Manning. We hope Manningham can land a starting job with a new team, but if he returns to the Giants his role and Fantasy value will be limited. Hopefully a strong performance in the Super Bowl will help him going forward.

Playoff Challenge

Not that I had a chance at winning, but my final Playoff Challenge roster is now down to just four players in Manning, Nicks, Manningham and Aaron Hernandez. Hopefully they can accrue some quality production in the Super Bowl to help my final total.

For those of you who still have transactions, here are my final rankings for the Super Bowl:

Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Eli Manning, Giants

Running Back
1. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
2. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
3. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
4. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
5. D.J. Ware, Giants

Wide Receiver
1. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
2. Wes Welker, Patriots
3. Victor Cruz, Giants
4. Mario Manningham, Giants
5. Deion Branch, Patriots

Tight End
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
3. Travis Beckum, Giants
4. Jake Ballard, Giants
5. Bear Pascoe, Giants

Kicker
1. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
2. Lawrence Tynes, Giants

DST
1. Giants
2. Patriots

Final score: Patriots 30, Giants 24. Both quarterbacks throw three touchdowns, but the Patriots get two more field goals from Gostkowski. This time, Brady throws the game-winning touchdown in the end with Manning on the sideline.

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Crabtree shelved with torn Achilles
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
5/22/2013

News: USA Today reports 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Tuesday. It is not known if he will try to play this season (like Terrell Suggs and Da'Quan Bowers did last year). ESPN reports that Crabtree had surgery Wednesday and is expected to be sidelined about six months. That timetable would put Crabtree out until at least some time in November.

Analysis: Crabtree came on very strong for the Niners last season once Colin Kaepernick went under center. In the seven starts Kaepernick made in 2012, Crabtree had 41 catches for 595 yards and five touchdowns. If you project that over 16 games, Crabtree would have finished with 94 catches for 1,360 yards and 11 touchdowns. That's out the window now. We expect the Niners to put Crabtree on the PUP list to begin the season and re-evaluate where he's at in his rehab come October or November. If you draft Crabtree with what would now be a middle- to late-round pick, you'd have to dedicate a bench spot to him for most of the regular season with no guarantee you'd get him in your lineup at 100 percent. The Niners will lean on Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and perhaps second-year receiver A.J. Jenkins to pick up the slack.

Ball expected to make 'impact'
Montee Ball, RB, DEN
5/22/2013

News: Denver offensive coordinator Adam Gase said Wednesday the team has high expectations for rookie running back Montee Ball. “He’s trying to pick up the offense," Gase said. "He’s a rookie. There are a lot of things going on, and he’s trying to pick it up as quick as possible. Obviously drafting him in the second round, we’re looking for him to make some kind of impact for us and be able to be on the field five, six plays and work together with that group of running backs.”

Analysis: Ball has the chance to start for the Broncos, especially if Willis McGahee and/or Knowshon Moreno are released prior to training camp. Keep an eye on what happens with Ball, who is likely to share playing time with Ronnie Hillman. We view Ball as a No. 2 Fantasy running back with upside. He's worth drafting in Round 5 in most standard leagues.

Leshoure 'battling some stuff'
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
5/22/2013

News: The unlucky offseason for Lions running back Mikel Leshoure continued during OTA workouts Wednesday. First, the team signed running back Reggie Bush, which dropped Leshoure on the depth chart. Then on Wednesday, Leshoure was not participating in team drills because of an injury, according to the Detroit News. "He's battling some stuff," coach Jim Schwartz said. "He can do some individual stuff but he's not ready to do any team work."

Analysis: We hope Leshoure is OK, and it sounds like he should be fine for training camp. Keep in mind he had an Achilles injury as a rookie and battled some ankle problems in his comeback. As long as Leshoure is back for training camp he should be considered a No. 3 Fantasy running back, and he's worth drafting with a mid-round pick. Keep in mind that even though Bush is the new starter for the Lions, Leshoure should work at the goal line, which will keep his value sustainable in the majority of standard leagues.

Kaepernick loses top receiver
Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF
5/22/2013

News: USA Today reports 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Tuesday and will undergo surgery. It is not known if he will try to play this season. That's a tough blow for quarterback Colin Kaepernick since Crabtree was clearly his No. 1 receiver. The San Francisco Chronicle reports that in Kaepernick's 10 starts in 2012 he targeted Crabtree more than any other receiver. The target breakdown was Crabtree with 94, Vernon Davis with 39 and Randy Moss with 39.

Analysis: This injury hurts Kaepernick's value for this season. His receiving corps was upgraded with Anquan Boldin replacing Moss, and the 49ers drafted a rookie in Quinton Patton. But now he's without his No. 1 option in Crabtree, which lowers Kaepernick's value. He is still worth drafting as a No. 1 quarterback, but he should be considered toward the end of the Top 10 at best with a mid-round pick.

Nicks skips OTAs
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
5/22/2013

News: The New York Daily News reports Hakeem Nicks was absent from the team's first day of OTA workouts Wednesday, just hours after attending a charity event in New York the night before and telling reporters he felt good physically following knee surgery. He had attended offseason program. "He should be here," an irked coach Tom Coughlin said, ruling out injury for the reason he's absent.

Analysis: Sounds like this is a case of Nicks showing his unhappiness with his contract. He's slated to be a free agent after the season and wants an extension; the Giants are dragging their feet. Last season Nicks struggled through injuries including a broken foot suffered during OTAs a year ago, leaving him with unappealing Fantasy stats and a large red flag warning owners of injuries to come. Assuming he's eventually in camp on-time and ready for the start of the season he's a high-risk, high-reward No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick in Round 5 or 6. He went in Round 4 in our most recent mock draft, a bit too high in our opinion.

Hopkins works with starters
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU
5/22/2013

News: The Texans official team website reports that rookie receiver DeAndre Hopkins is making a good impression early on this offseason. “He’s such a dynamic player,” quarterback Matt Schaub said. “He’s just going to bring an added dimension to our offense.” Schaub cited Hopkins’ “great” attitude and work ethic, and is looking forward to what Hopkins will bring to the squad. Hopkins has practiced with the first-team offense, which meant he and Andre Johnson were the starting receivers. Johnson believes Hopkins is well on his way to contributing. “He’s picking up everything pretty well,” Johnson said. “He went and made some plays today and that’s a good thing. I think day-by-day, he’ll continue to get better and better.”

Analysis: Hopkins has the chance to be a solid contributor for the Texans as a rookie, and we would draft him as a key reserve with a mid-round pick. In rookie-only drafts, Hopkins is worth drafting with a first-round selection.

Ebert treks to Jacksonville
Jeremy Ebert, WR, NE
5/22/2013

News: The Jaguars have signed another Patriots castoff, this time receiver Jeremy Ebert.

Analysis: Ebert hurt his leg last season and didn't play. He's unlikely to make an impact for the Jaguars in 2013.

Thomas, Manning on same page
Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN
5/22/2013

News: Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas said Wednesday he feels as comfortable as ever in his rapport with quarterback Peyton Manning. "It’s sky-high right now," Thomas said of his chemistry with Manning. "I know what he wants. I know where to be on the field. I feel like the more we’re on the field, the better I get, just in seeing what he wants from me and seeing what he’s looking for.”

Analysis: Thomas had a true breakout year in 2012, turning into the Fantasy stud that many expected him to be, which happened in his third year in the NFL. Thomas finished eighth in the league in catches (94), fourth in yards (1,434) to go along with his 10 touchdowns. He enters this season as a No. 1 Fantasy receiver, and he should be drafted in all leagues by Round 3.

Davis gets boost in value
Vernon Davis, TE, SF
5/22/2013

News: USA Today reports 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Tuesday and will undergo surgery. It is not known if he will try to play this season. While this injury hurts the 49ers, it should help tight end Vernon Davis, who could become the No. 1 option now for quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

Analysis: Davis had a down year in 2012 and struggled once Kaepernick took over for Alex Smith. He stepped up his performance in the playoffs, and hopefully he can pick up from there, especially with Crabtree out. Davis is a No. 1 Fantasy tight end in all leagues, especially after this injury, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 6.

Boldin now No. 1 option?
Anquan Boldin, WR, SF
5/22/2013

News: USA Today reports 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Tuesday and will undergo surgery. It is not known if he will try to play this season. The injury now elevates Anquan Boldin to No. 1 on the depth chart. Boldin was traded to the 49ers this offseason from the Ravens.

Analysis: Boldin, at this point in his career, was suited more for a No. 2 receiver role than a No. 1 option. Last year, as the No. 1 option for the Ravens, he caught 65 passes for 921 yards and four touchdowns during the regular season, but he stepped up in the playoffs with 22 catches for 380 yards and four touchdowns. Still, this injury helps his Fantasy value, and Boldin now has the potential to be a No. 3 Fantasy receiver worth a mid-round pick.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings