Monday January 30, 2012 - 11:51 AM

Offseason Extra: QB tiers for 2012

By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
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Dave Richard's tiers and strategies: RB | WR | TE

When to draft a quarterback? That's the question everyone will have to ask themselves -- and answer -- in 2012. You could go early on a stud, wait a little longer and land someone almost as good, or wait a while longer and clinch some great values. The choice every owner makes here will shape his or her draft strategy.

There is absolutely no shortage of quality Fantasy quarterback talent this upcoming year. None. Barring a slew of preseason injuries, pretty much every owner in every league with 12 owners or fewer will have ample opportunity to land a starter with 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential.

Of course, 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns might not cut it anymore. Not when we're coming off a season where six quarterbacks threw for over 4,500 yards (three went over 5,000 yards) and nine had at least 30 total touchdowns. Everyone sees the NFL as a pass-first, explosive offense type of league; as such, the demand for a quarterback stud is at an all-time high.

That's not to say it's right to take one early, but it's worth thinking about. Truth is, there is no right answer. The decision on when to pull the trigger on a quarterback will vary from owner to owner, from league to league. If you're in a standard 10-team format where passing touchdowns aren't worth as much as rushing and receiving touchdowns, you might not want to spend an early pick on a quarterback. Heck, if you're in a league with only 10 owners you might not want to rush getting a quarterback regardless of the rules because there are so many good signal-callers to go around. The opposite is obviously true in leagues with 16-plus owners and leagues that start multiple quarterbacks. In those types of formats you could expect a bull rush of quarterbacks getting picked from the jump.

If you're in the middle -- a 12- or 14-team league -- then the decision on when to take a quarterback warrants some thought.

Advantages to going quarterback early

There's no better way to put this: You're not going to get a Top 5 quarterback without spending a Top 25 pick. Just the way it will be. As it stands now there's a significant shortage of reliable Fantasy running backs to take in Round 1, which means owners will quickly move on to the safe picks of stud quarterbacks if they're not inclined to grab a receiver like Calvin Johnson or a rusher with some risk like Marshawn Lynch. Consistent stat production is the key with anyone you take early on and no position offers that like this one. Generally speaking, quarterbacks put up more stats and therefore more Fantasy points than other players.

And by taking a quarterback early you're essentially committing to him for the season. That's not a problem unless you're a die-hard matchup player and can't stomach the idea of a stud eventually facing a challenge, like Brady facing the Jets twice a year. But one additional perk in following this plan is that you won't necessarily have to draft a backup and can use that roster spot on an extra running back or receiver. When the time comes to replace your quarterback during his bye week, you can find someone off waivers (maybe even a week or two in advance).

Now if your stud quarterback goes down for the year with an injury, your season is probably in serious jeopardy. And of course if the quarterback you take stinks, your season is probably ruined as well. But those aren't commonplace, at least among quarterbacks, so don't consider them major deterrents. The real drawback to this strategy is that you'll pass on an elite player in Round 1 or an excellent player in Round 2 in exchange for one of these luxuries. You might not find that to be such a bad thing depending on where you pick and who's available.

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Will it pay to wait until late?

Last year I floated the idea of waiting a long time to draft a quarterback. The strategy likely worked or didn't work based on whether or not Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton was one of the quarterbacks you ended up snaking late. Those of you who drafted Sam Bradford or Joe Flacco late probably aren't big fans of this blueprint.

But with the quarterback talent pool deeper than ever, might it pay off to once again consider waiting until at least Round 7 to land a quarterback, followed up with the selection of another quarterback (or two!) later on? It's worth considering, especially if you just don't believe in drafting a passer early on and/or like loading up on very good skill-position players knowing full well that somebody will be there for the taking later on. The smaller the league (figure any league with 10 or fewer owners), the better this plan should work.

Additionally, every year quarterbacks taken long after the early rounds emerge as Fantasy heroes (Stafford and Newton last season, Vick in 2010), so by waiting you can take a stab or two at quarterbacks who might completely outperform their draft position.

Remember, going with this plan means committing to playing the matchups. It's pretty much a 180-degree turn from taking one quarterback with a Top 25 pick and going with that guy week in and week out. There's risk involved if you miss on your picks here (and miss on waiver-wire quarterbacks during the season), but if you strike gold, you're essentially a lock to be in a position to make your league's playoffs.

Going early on the late strategy

Maybe waiting a long time for a quarterback isn't the right move for you. So here's something new for 2012: Go early and go late. For those of us who have been drafting quarterbacks without reaching for a long time, this would be called "drafting normally."

This idea makes sound sense: Wait until after the first five elite quarterbacks get taken, then set your sights on one of those next four quarterbacks (in my rankings it's Rivers, Eli Manning, Romo and Vick). They're a good value in late Round 3/early Round 4 or so, so grab one. Then draft another quarterback in Round 8 or 9, someone with some potential to finish as a Top 12 option. We're talking about someone like Tebow, Dalton or perhaps Schaub or Palmer if they slip that far.

This strategy minimizes risk -- you're not waiting forever with your fingers crossed for a couple of good quarterbacks who might fizzle out and you're not spending a Top 30 pick on a passer and missing out on a great player at another position. And you could still end up with a fine starter and a backup who can bring you something valuable in trade. Most Fantasy owners have done this strategy year after year, albeit waiting until maybe Round 10 or 11 to get that second quarterback, so this isn't a drastic variation in drafting by comparison.

Just how deep are we talking?

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We're not going to waste a lot of time dissecting the elite guys at the top of our rankings. It's pretty obvious why Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford make up the five best quarterbacks you could draft in 2012, so it's probably better to focus on who's left -- and it's an absolute who's who of passers to pick from.

The best part? None of these guys should be swiped before 35th overall in any draft, making them good values.

Low risk, high reward: Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Tony Romo ... There's no such thing as a sure thing, but these quarterbacks have done well over their careers and can essentially be considered bargains on Draft Day. All three play in pass-oriented offenses (no need to worry about a lot of handoffs) and have 250-yard, two-touchdown potential every single week. If we're talking Round 4 or later for these guys, they're almost worth targeting over the elite-tier quarterbacks.

High risk, high reward: Michael Vick, Peyton Manning ... Injuries make these guys iffy. Vick isn't a 16-game player and Manning hasn't even been cleared to practice after his neck surgeries. But both carry the potential to deliver huge Fantasy points, which is why people will take stabs on them when drafts come around. Obviously Manning's situation is subject to change -- he might even be on a different team -- but for now he's fairly risky and more of a Round 5 type of quarterback. Vick might not last as long -- he did have at least 22 Fantasy points in seven of 13 starts -- but still requires an excellent backup.

Medium risk, medium reward: Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer ... These guys just don't quite have the potential of the elite group or the low-risk, high-reward group. Whether it's injuries (Roethlisberger, Schaub) or inconsistent play (Ryan, Schaub), they're not viewed as great choices. But they are good enough to settle on with a pick between Rounds 6 and 7, and in some cases owners can draft two of these guys and play the matchups. If there's one who can make the jump, it's Ryan. He's got a great receiving corps and only needs his offensive line to protect him better to have a chance at taking the next step in his career. If he's a potential 4,500-yard, 30-touchdown passer and he's there in Round 6, you'd be nuts to pass on him.

This year's Cam?

Naturally, everyone craves the sleeper quarterback who can be had late in drafts and develops into a Top 10 Fantasy choice. The Cam Newton type who breaks out while being under the radar heading into Fantasy drafts.

While we can't guarantee that any of these quarterbacks will finish as Top 10 options, we do recognize their potential. Maybe you should too.

Sam Bradford, St. Louis: 2011 was an unmitigated disaster for Bradford. He had to learn Josh McDaniels' offense in a short amount of time and got hurt after several of his receivers and linemen got hurt. He didn't have a single game with multiple touchdowns and had over 250 yards passing in three of 10 starts. He'll have a chance to recover this offseason as the Rams brought in Brian Schottenheimer to run the offense and will get back several players in time for training camp. There's no denying his talent, he just needs some stability to become successful and the Rams have done that for him.

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati: There's a lot to be excited about here. He's got the stud receiver (A.J. Green), the burly tight end (Jermaine Gresham) and will run Jay Gruden's offense for a second season. If the Bengals add a stud running back that draws opposing safeties in, or stand pat with a declining run game which would mean more pass attempts, then things could get really interesting. Getting over the hump vs. the Steelers and Ravens (four touchdowns, five interceptions, 50.3 comp. pct., 6.36 yards/att.) would be a must.

Tim Tebow, Denver: It might not always be pretty but Tebow has a way of putting together stats to help out Fantasy owners, especially in favorable matchups. The idea of him working with John Elway this offseason to improve his game is appealing; anything that can be improved there will go a long way. Nearly 20 percent of Tebow's completions were good for 20-plus yards, he had seven starts with multiple touchdowns and he averaged 56 rush yards per game (the equivalent of 125 passing yards in Fantasy). So long as he utilizes his legs, he'll be relevant.

Matt Flynn, free agent: Flynn will be this year's Kevin Kolb: The former backup loaded with potential that lands as a starter with a new team. Does it mean he'll end up playing like Kolb did in 2011? It's possible, but it's also impossible to ignore that he completed 55 of 81 passes (67.9 pct.) for 731 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions in two career starts (at the Pats, vs. the Lions). Someone will take a chance on him in the NFL this March, and someone will take a chance on him in Fantasy this summer.

Others on the radar: Jay Cutler, Chicago; Joe Flacco, Baltimore; Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville; Kevin Kolb, Arizona; Matt Moore, Miami; Christian Ponder, Minnesota; Mark Sanchez, N.Y. Jets.

Two more to factor in

As if you don't already have a lot to think about, there's this: Andrew Luck, the highest-rated quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning, will begin his career in 2012. He's considered a can't-miss thanks to a great, accurate arm to go with awesome size and athleticism. He's even got a little speed in his legs and could total 200 to 300 rushing yards per season.

And if he doesn't tickle your fancy then fellow rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III might. Griffin has essentially as good of an arm as Luck with the accuracy and football smarts to boot. His four-year collegiate stats (66.9 comp. pct., 10,071 yards, 77 touchdowns, 17 interceptions) are incredible. And he's a former track star, so you know he can get things going with his feet (2,199 rushing yards and 32 rushing touchdowns).

Not only are these guys terrific prospects, but judging by the track records of rookie quarterbacks over the last four years, they are candidates to be excellent Fantasy options. We're not going to rank them yet because they don't have an NFL team, but assuming that they go where we think they'll go (figure Indianapolis for Luck and Washington or Cleveland for Griffin) and they start right away, they'll be in a position to put up some pretty solid numbers. And, they can be drafted as No. 2 Fantasy quarterbacks -- and believe it or not, Griffin might be better than Luck for Fantasy.

The Tiers

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