Offseason Extra: The good and bad from 2011
Every year you come to us looking for advice to draft your Fantasy team. And every year we do our best to provide the best information possible to help you win your league.
The highlights of our Draft Prep coverage is finding sleepers, breakouts and busts and also making predictions that we expect to come true. And when the season is over, we get to look back and see what we got right and where we went wrong.
The 2011 season was outstanding (especially if you won a Fantasy title), but before we can fully move on to 2012, it's time to go back to the beginning and see how we did. Some of our calls were great and there are some, unfortunately, that we would love to forget. But the best thing about this exercise is what we can learn moving forward to make sure your Fantasy team is successful next year.
The good ...
Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints
My prediction: Breakout
Average Draft Position: No. 85 overall (Round 8)
My projection: 48 catches for 703 yards and nine touchdowns
2011 stats: 99 catches for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 187 (11.7)
2012 Projected Average Draft Position: No. 26 overall (Round 3)
Graham was a star this season and played better than expected with double digits in Fantasy points in 11 games, and he led all tight ends in targets with 149. He might present great value on Draft Day since most owners will reach for Rob Gronkowski in the early part of Round 2 and Graham will be there for you most likely at the beginning of Round 3. Graham would have been the No. 5 receiver this season based on Fantasy points behind Calvin Johnson (254), Jordy Nelson (210), Wes Welker (206) and Victor Cruz (198). Graham could benefit greatly if Marques Colston and Robert Meachem both leave as free agents, but even if they stay we know Drew Brees will continue to look for Graham often, which is why he is a star Fantasy option in 2012.
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Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
My prediction: Breakout
Average Draft Position: No. 68 overall (Round 6)
My projection: 68 catches for 962 yards and six touchdowns
2011 stats: 87 catches for 967 yards and six touchdowns; 52 carries for 345 yards and two touchdowns
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 159 (9.9)
2012 Projected Average Draft Position: No. 47 overall (Round 4)
Even with the quarterback change from Brett Favre to Donovan McNabb, Harvin was still expected to have a good season in his third year. He inherited the No. 1 option in the passing game with Sidney Rice gone as a free agent to Seattle, and he was expected to be fully healthy with the migraine situation behind him. Harvin finished as the No. 10 receiver in standard leagues and he had eight games with double digits in Fantasy points. He should continue to play at a high level in 2012 with Christian Ponder now the starting quarterback for the Vikings, and the team could rely on him even more with Adrian Peterson's knee injury. Plan on drafting Harvin in Round 4 as a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver in all leagues.
Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos
My prediction: Sleeper
Average Draft Position: No. 110 overall (Round 10)
My projection: 157 carries for 718 yards and seven touchdowns; 18 catches for 104 yards and one touchdown
2011 stats: 249 carries for 1,199 yards and four touchdowns; 12 catches for 51 yards and one touchdown
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 144 (9.6)
2012 Projected Average Draft Position: No. 52 overall (Round 5)
McGahee going to Denver was the perfect situation for him because new coach John Fox wanted to run the ball and Knowshon Moreno was not going to last as a workhorse rusher. Moreno ended up with a torn ACL, and McGahee finished the season as the No. 21 running back in standard leagues. He had eight games with double digits in Fantasy points and was a steal for Fantasy owners with a late-round pick. The Broncos need to inject some youth into their running game in 2012, but McGahee is still worth drafting as a No. 2 running back with his potential to score. He is near the end of his career at 30, but he should provide some help for a couple of weeks during the season depending on who the Broncos bring in to share carries.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers
My prediction: Bust
Average Draft Position: No. 15 overall (Round 2)
My projection: 284 carries for 1,305 yards and nine touchdowns; 26 catches for 211 yards and one touchdown
2011 stats: 228 carries for 928 yards and nine touchdowns; 18 catches for 154 yards
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 149 (9.9)
2012 Projected Average Draft Position: No. 110 overall (Round 10)
Mendenhall was better than expected in 2011, but he still struggled based on his ADP. He was the No. 18 running back in standard leagues and had just six games with double digits in Fantasy points. We expected him to falter back in February of 2011 when the Steelers reached the Super Bowl against the Packers based on all the extra work he had. He then suffered a torn ACL in Week 17 and his status for 2012 is now up in the air, as the Steelers have already mentioned him being out for the season. We expect him to play, but he is only worth drafting as a late-round reserve until he proves his knee is healthy. Going into next season you should plan on drafting Isaac Redman ahead of Mendenhall as he now has a long road to recovery.
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
My prediction: Sleeper
Average Draft Position: Not drafted in the majority of leagues
My projection: 3,142 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and 20 interceptions; 115 carries for 555 yards and three touchdowns
2011 stats: 4,051 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions; 126 carries for 706 yards and 14 touchdowns
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 394 (24.6)
2012 Projected Average Draft Position: No. 18 overall (Round 2)
I expected Newton to make an impact as a rookie in 2011, but I didn't expect him to play at such a dominant level so early. He will be drafted as a Top 5 quarterback in 2012 and he should be selected in Round 2 in all formats. His rushing ability sets him apart from most quarterbacks and he has the chance to account for 5,000 total yards and 35-plus touchdowns on a yearly basis. The Panthers need to enhance his receiving corps because Steve Smith needs help, but Newton is among the best Fantasy quarterbacks heading into the season behind Aaron Rodgers, Brees and Tom Brady. And as you saw last year, it's not a big dropoff from those three to Newton, who should continue to perform at a high level in his sophomore campaign.
The bad ...
Jahvid Best, RB, Lions
My prediction: Breakout
Average Draft Position: No. 49 overall (Round 5)
My projection: 188 carries for 904 yards and five touchdowns; 52 catches for 403 yards and three touchdowns
2011 stats: 84 carries for 390 yards and two touchdowns; 27 catches for 287 yards and one touchdown
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 80 (13.3)
2012 Projected Average Draft Position: No. 97 overall (Round 8)
The warning signs were there for Best based on his concussion history, but I didn't want owners to pass on him with the chance he could get hurt. Well, we all know what happened in 2011: He suffered a concussion in Week 6 and was lost for the year. Prior to getting hurt, Best was a Fantasy beast with double digits in Fantasy points in four of six games, but he couldn't finish what he started. He now heads into 2012 with a lot of uncertainty about his future and the Lions will provide plenty of competition with Mikel Leshoure, who missed his rookie season with a ruptured Achilles' tendon, and Kevin Smith, who is a free agent but could return. Best will likely share carries with Leshoure, and he is only worth drafting with a late-round pick in standard leagues.
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LeGarrette Blount, RB, Bucs
My prediction: Breakout
Average Draft Position: No. 28 overall (Round 3)
My projection: 287 carries for 1,342 yards and 10 touchdowns; 11 catches for 88 yards
2011 stats: 184 carries for 781 yards and five touchdowns; 15 catches for 148 yards
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 108 (7.7)
2012 Projected Average Draft Position: No. 50 overall (Round 5)
Blount had the chance to be a star in 2011. He was coming off a tremendous rookie season in 2010 where he had 1,000 rushing yards and six touchdowns in basically 10 games of work, and he looked like a workhorse in the making. The Bucs, however, fell apart, and Blount was a disaster. He had just five games with double digits in Fantasy points and former coach Raheem Morris had six games where he gave Blount the ball 10 times or less, which could be part of the reason he got fired. Blount should rebound in a big way in 2012 if he remains the No. 1 option for Tampa Bay and new coach Greg Schiano. He's worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy running back with upside unless the Bucs bring in someone for significant competition.
Sam Bradford, QB, Rams
My prediction: Sleeper
Average Draft Position: No. 92 overall (Round 8)
My projection: 4,011 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 15 interceptions; 28 carries for 72 yards and one touchdown
2011 stats: 2,164 passing yards, six touchdowns and six interceptions; 18 carries for 26 yards
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 96 (9.6)
2012 Projected Average Draft Position: No. 114 overall (Round 10)
Bradford was another sophomore I overestimated after a solid rookie campaign just like Blount. I thought the addition of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels would help Bradford improve in 2011, but he lost his best receiver to injury (Danny Amendola) and his offensive line fell apart. Bradford also never adapted to the new offense in the lockout-shortened season and was a terrible starting option for any Fantasy league. He should play better in 2012 since the Rams should add to his receiving corps and Bradford now has lower expectations as a clear-cut No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. He is worth a late-round pick and his value should improve in his third year from where it finished in 2011.
Josh Freeman, QB, Bucs
My prediction: Breakout
Average Draft Position: No. 79 overall (Round 7)
My projection: 4,058 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions; 50 carries for 263 yards and two touchdowns
2011 stats: 3,592 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and 22 interceptions; 55 carries for 238 yards and four touchdowns
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 222 (14.8)
2012 Projected Average Draft Position: No. 105 overall (Round 9)
The reason Freeman was appealing as a starting Fantasy quarterback was his touchdown to interception rate in 2010 (5-to-1) and his lack of rushing touchdowns. He increased his rushing touchdowns by four, but his interceptions skyrocketed. Even though his passing yards increased and he had a higher completion percentage, his value went in the tank. We hope Tampa Bay will bring in another receiver to help Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow, and Freeman still has plenty of potential as a Fantasy quarterback. But he will now be considered a high-end No. 2 quarterback, and he is only worth drafting with a late-round pick in the majority of leagues.
Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins
My prediction: No. 1 rookie RB
Average Draft Position: No. 97 overall (Round 9)
My projection: 166 carries for 754 yards and six touchdowns; 21 catches for 121 yards and one touchdown
2011 stats: 165 carries for 581 yards; 12 catches for 72 yards and one touchdown
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 62 (4.8)
2012 Projected Average Draft Position: No. 112 overall (Round 10)
Not only was Thomas not the No. 1 rookie running back, he barely cracked the Top 5. Thomas finished behind DeMarco Murray, Roy Helu, Mark Ingram and Kendall Hunter. He also finished behind Reggie Bush on his own team. The thought going in was Bush would struggle or get hurt and Thomas would take over in a run-based offense. Bush, however, was healthy all season, and Thomas was clearly the No. 2 option. He does have the chance to redeem himself in 2012, but he should not be drafted as anything more than a No. 4 Fantasy running back with upside. Thomas has a lot to prove before Fantasy owners can count on him in any format.
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