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Offseason Extra: The Peyton Effect

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Denver is the next place Peyton Manning will call home. Of all of his potential landing spots this offseason, it's the best fit for him. He'll be on a well-run team that proved it will do anything and everything to make a Super Bowl run happen in 2012. The offense has pieces in place and the defense has potential to be very stout. The division is winnable.

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For Fantasy purposes, it's also the best fit.

Manning is coming off of multiple neck surgeries that cost him all of the 2011 season and reportedly caused some nerve damage in his throwing arm. No one can say for sure that he's "back," but Manning has worked out for the Broncos, as well as other interested teams, so signs seem to point to Manning being capable of throwing the ball.

Offensive line

Manning lands behind an offensive line that boasts a Pro Bowl left tackle in Ryan Clady, an up-and-coming right tackle in Orlando Franklin but not much else. The line is probably considered a bit below-average after allowing 42 sacks last year (eight teams allowed more) and finishing 31st in ProFootballFocus.com's Pass Blocking Efficiency Rankings. To be fair, Tim Tebow was sacked 33 of those 42 times (three per start) whereas Kyle Orton was sacked the other nine times over five games (almost two per start). The O-line isn't quite as bad as these stats make them out to be, and chances are long-time Colts teammate Jeff Saturday will be added to steer the big men from the center spot and keep Manning protected. There's room for improvement there but it shouldn't be considered a weakness.

Wide receivers

There's not as much room for improvement from the receiving corps. Denver's fortunate to have one of the league's most explosive young talents in Demaryius Thomas, who was a big reason for Tebow's success in 2011. Thomas totaled 42 catches for 844 yards (a sick 20.1 yard average) and five touchdowns over 13 games (includes the postseason). And that's with Tebow, a career 47.3 percent passer, at the helm. Significant injuries have slowed Thomas down considerably in the past, so he's a bit of an injury risk, but his potential with Manning is sky-high.

The Broncos have another big weapon in Eric Decker, who didn't play quite as well with Tebow as Thomas did but also didn't have many opportunities to do well due to how Tebow went through his reads and his own injuries slowing him down. He doesn't quite have the explosiveness of Thomas but is a good volume-type receiver who can find mismatches in the end zone that Manning will like.

The Broncos added a quality possession-type receiver in Andre Caldwell, and he's a candidate to work exclusively in the slot and be a chain-moving option for Manning in the mold of Austin Collie. Caldwell doesn't have much speed and has missed time with injuries, so he's not exactly a great choice. He could catch 50 passes and be useful in PPR leagues.

We could see the Broncos add some more speed and depth to their receiving corps, but Thomas and Decker should catch the majority of Manning's passes. Jason Hill is a potential sleeper (he had some good moments as the Jaguars' top receiver for part of last season) but he's not yet worth drafting. Thomas should be drafted as a very solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver based on his potential (he could potentially be the best receiver in Fantasy if he can stay healthy and mesh with Manning); Decker should be drafted as a quality reserve with potential to finish as a Top 30 producer.

Tight ends

There was talk that Dallas Clark would sign with the Broncos, giving Manning another familiar face to throw to, but he hasn't signed as of yet. Instead, another Colts tight end joined the Broncos, and he might be even better and is definitely healthier. That would be Jacob Tamme.

Tamme had just 177 yards on 19 catches in 2011 with one score last year, but he worked behind starter Dallas Clark in a Manning-less Colts offense. Instead, our focus is on his 2010 numbers: In 10 games without Dallas Clark, Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns.That's a lot more attractive.

The Broncos have also reportedly signed ex-Texans tight end Joel Dreessen, who is good as an in-line blocker and No. 2-type receiver. He'll vulture some touchdowns from Tamme and the rest of the Denver offense but he'll ultimately benefit Manning. Tamme's the one we're looking at as a potential breakout, well worth a middle- to late-round pick as a borderline No. 1 Fantasy tight end to start the year.

Running backs

The track record of running backs with Peyton Manning is pretty obvious: Marshall Faulk (one), Edgerrin James (five), Joseph Addai (two) and Dominic Rhodes (one) have all run for over 1,000 yards with Manning under center. Only four times has a running back not had 1,000 rush yards while with Manning; two were because of injuries (2008 and 2010) and two still totaled over 1,100 yards (James in 2002, Addai in 2009). And in Manning's 14 seasons in Indianapolis, his running backs have totaled at least a dozen touchdowns 11 times. Point being, if you run in Peyton Manning's offense, you're going to have a great shot at some very good numbers.

That jells with how successful running backs have been on John Fox-coached teams. Last season the Broncos led the NFL in rushing thanks in large part to Tebow's 660 rush yards, but Willis McGahee outperformed expectations with 1,199 rush yards of his own. He only scored four times on the ground (five times total) but was largely considered a huge success. Combine the Broncos' already-strong run game and run principles with how rushers have done playing with Manning and there's a lot to like about whoever runs the ball in Denver.

But that would mean we're assuming that there will be one guy running. That's a terrible assumption. McGahee is likely to get some company. The Broncos probably didn't envision McGahee rushing nearly 250 times last season -- he averaged effectively 10 carries per game when Knowshon Moreno played. The belief is that the Broncos will add another back and thus put a cap on McGahee's expectations this year. The younger and fresher the running back, the less appealing McGahee will be for Fantasy owners. Figure McGahee to end up as a No. 3 option and be a potentially decent mid-round draft pick.

Knowshon Moreno is coming off of a torn ACL and could struggle to be ready for the start of the season. There are already murmurs about his time in Denver being up even if he comes back strong from the injury. Lance Ball is a nice role player who pitched in admirably last season but the Broncos probably wouldn't want to lean on him. Again, look for the Broncos to add some talent here, and for whoever that talent is to be a good Fantasy option.

Placekicker

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You might think that the kicker associated with Peyton Manning's teams in Indy was a lock to be among the best at his position in Fantasy. But it's not the case. In the 13 seasons Manning played for the Colts, his kicker finished as a Top 10 option seven times.

Matt Prater is the Broncos' placekicker, a job he's had for four years. In those four years he's finished as a Top 10 kicker in Fantasy just once. Not all of that is his fault as the Broncos offense was a mess over the last two years. He's hit 80 percent of his field goals over that time, which isn't bad but isn't great either. To his credit, he's nailed 12 of 16 field goals from 50-plus yards. Prater's fine with a final-round pick but don't be married to him if he's not productive right away.

And finally ... Quarterback

In the past, Manning was considered as safe as they come. But after being out for a year and having issues with his arm while recovering from neck surgery, there's obviously some risk. Tack on Manning being in a new city with new teammates (and probably his old offense) and he's not the easy choice he once was.

Many are nervous about an injury ending his season early and it's all right to be cautious with Manning for now. Roughly one out of every two Fantasy owners I polled on Twitter said they need to see more from Manning before being confident enough to draft him. Those jittery owners should indeed see more.

If Manning is the guy we once came to know and love, we'll see it before the start of the season. He'll take part in training camp and preseason games (Manning values scrimmaging to work out any kinks in the offense). If he looks as good as we remember, he'll be in the discussion as the seventh quarterback taken in drafts, right behind brother Eli, in Round 3 or 4. If he's not quite as smooth but clearly on track to play, he'll be more of a fifth-round pick with the likes of Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger. And if he's not playing at all but still expected to be ready for the season, Fantasy owners might start gambling with him starting in Round 6 or 7.

And if he's not practicing and if there aren't encouraging reports, Fantasy owners should run away from him.

Between now and then, play it cool and take a wait-and-see approach. But know this: no one knows better the importance of good quarterback play than Broncos vice president and Hall of Famer John Elway. If he's making a $96 million bet on Manning, then it can be assumed that he's satisfied with where the quarterback is at in his recovery is glad to trust him with the Broncos offense. If it's good enough for John, why shouldn't it be good enough for us?

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

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Player News
Vikings' Adrian Peterson to begin probation on Wednesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Vikings running back Adrian Peterson will begin his probation on Wednesday, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Peterson will begin community service, and will undergo counseling to determine whether he has a drug problem. Peterson will report to a probation officer once a month in order to take a drug test. The strict drug testing stems from an Oct. 8 pre-trail urinalysis. Peterson admitted to "smoking a little weed," though the results from the test were never disclosed. 

Probation officials will also determine whether Peterson needs to attend parenting classes. 

Per his plea agreement, Peterson was fined $4,000 and ordered to perform 80 hours of community service. He's required to perform at least 16 hours per month, which would allow him to complete to program prior to training camp.

Peterson is under contract with the Vikings for next season, and is set to earn $12.75 million. The team is not allowed to communicate with Peterson during his suspension. 


Austin Collie signs with CFL's BC Lions
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Free-agent receiver Austin Collie has signed with the BC Lions of the Canadian Football League, the team announced Thursday.

"I’m excited to be joining the Lions and very much look forward to playing in the CFL," said Collie. "The wide-open play of the Canadian game and the passion of fans across the league is going to be a lot of fun to experience."

Collie played four seasons with the Colts and one with the Patriots. In his last NFL action, he caught four passes for 57 yards in the 2014 AFC Championship Game.


Eagles RB LeSean McCoy: 'I don't want to take less money'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Eagles running back LeSean McCoy reiterated Thursday that while he'd be willing to restructure his contract if asked, he would not accept a pay cut, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

"I know how hard it is to keep a team together and I want to be part of this team. But I don't want to take less money," McCoy said. "I want to figure a way to make it happen [where] we're all together."

McCoy, who is due to count $11.95 million against the cap in 2015, turned in his fourth 1,000-yard season in the last five years in 2014, finishing with 1,319 rushing yards on 312 carries and 155 receiving yards on a career-low 28 receptions. All five of his touchdowns came on the ground.


Bills' Rex Ryan won't commit to EJ Manuel as starting QB
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) When asked about who his starting quarterback would be in 2015, Bills coach Rex Ryan said the team would look at every available option, reports The Buffalo News.

"We're going to exhaust every resource we can," Ryan said. "We'll look at free agents. We'll look at the draft. We'll look at anything."

The Bills have former first-round pick EJ Manuel on their roster, but Ryan said he would not commit to Manuel as his starting quarterback at this time.

"To say that he's definitely going to be the guy, it's way too early to say that," Ryan said.


Bills RB Fred Jackson excited to play for new coach Rex Ryan
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Bills veteran running back Fred Jackson said he hasn't had the opportunity to meet with new coach Rex Ryan, but that didn't stop him from expressing his excitement about the new coaching regime in Buffalo.

"I can't wait to play for him. I've heard nothing but good things," Jackson said Wednesday of Ryan during an interview on ESPN New York 98.7 FM. "I'm looking forward to that [first] conversation when I sit down and talk to him."

The Bills finished 9-7 in 2014, which was their best record since 2004. While Jackson believes Ryan is going to "be that catalyst that comes in and pushes us over that hump," he didn't have many bad things to say about coach Doug Marrone, who opted out of his contract New Year's Eve.

"I thought he was a tremendous coach," Jackson said. "He showed up, he worked hard, he pushed players to give their best effort. He got us to a 9-7 record -- we hadn't won nine games in 10 years. There's definitely some things about him that made him a great coach. It's just the way he exited. I don't think anybody expected that. 

"Players, the way we found out is we got a generic text from him, saying that he was moving on and he had chosen to opt out of his contract." 


Justin Tuck: Raider Nation would appluad signing Ndamukong Suh
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) If defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh doesn't sign a long-term deal with the Lions, then he will become a free agent March 10 and there will be plenty of teams interested in the Pro Bowl lineman. 

Raiders defensive end Justin Tuck indicated if Suh wanted to sign with Oakland, then he would be welcomed in Raider Nation.

"(He's) Raider-ish," Tuck said, per the Detroit Free Press. "And that's one of the reasons why I know Raider Nation would applaud that move, beyond the fact that he's an awesome football player. He kind of fits the mold of ... the toughness and the ferocious player that built the Oakland Raiders."

It is speculated Suh will receive a contract worth at least $100 million. Tuck believes the three-time All-Pro deserves such a lucrative deal.

"The thing about him, you know what you're getting every day. Some of the tactics, you could probably do without, but he's a hell of a football player," Tuck said. "I would love to have the opportunity to line up beside of him and let him take all the double teams that I normally take."


Nick Foles: 'I plan on being in Philly' in 2015
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) There has been a lot of talk about quarterback Nick Foles' future with the Eagles, especially since Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly's former pupil at Oregon -- Marcus Mariota -- will be part of this year's draft class.

On Thursday, Foles addressed the rumors and stated he is expecting to be back on the Eagles' roster in 2015.

"Yeah you hear about it," Foles said in between doing paid appearances at Super Bowl XLIX, per NJ.com. "You are going to hear about it every single year. That's just part of it. The main word is 'rumor.' You can't put too much into it....I plan on being in Philly.

"I only listen to (head coach) Chip Kelly. That's what is most important. He is the one that will make the decision. Right now all I am going to do is work because I plan on being back in Philadelphia and playing with my team. That's all I ever thought. So that is what I plan on doing and I'm not looking at it any other way."

Foles added he hasn't talked with Kelly since the end of the season.

"We haven't talked a lot. He has a lot going on," Foles said. "This time of year you really just get away from everything. He is busy looking at the draft, doing all that. I saw he is more of the decision maker. Haven't really talked to him too much, but I'm sure I'll hear from him soon."


Dwyer pleads guilty in domestic violence case, gets probation
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Cardinals running back Jonathan Dwyer pleaded guilty Thursday in Maricopa County (Ariz.) Superior Court to a single count of disorderly conduct pertaining to his domestic violence case, according to The Arizona Republic.

Dwyer was sentenced to 18 months of probation and community service following the plea, according to a court spokesman.

The 25-year-old Dwyer was arrested Sept. 17 for a July 21 incident in which he allegedly head-butted his wife in the face and broke her nose after she refused his sexual advances and bit his lip, according to reports taken at the time.

Dwyer's wife told police she reported the incident in September because she feared for their child's safety after seeing reports of Vikings running back Adrian Peterson's arrest on child-abuse charges.

The Cardinals placed Dwyer on the reserve/non-football injury list after his September arrest. He did not play again during the 2014 season.


Tom Brady on Peyton Manning: 'I certainly hope he comes back'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) While the football world anxiously awaits official word from Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning about his playing status for the 2015 season, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady -- and longtime Manning rival -- said Thursday he hopes the five-time NFL MVP will continue his career.

"What a great player he's been for this league," Brady said Thursday, per NFL.com. "He's a great competitor, and I've been fortunate to play against him a bunch of times. I certainly hope he comes back, 'cause the league will miss him if he doesn't. But those decisions are up to him. I'm sure it's up to whether he's mentally and physically -- that's what he wants to do. But I certainly hope he's back."

Archie Manning, Peyton's father, told NFL Network on Thursday that his son hasn't made a decision yet.

"Well, Peyton evaluates things; he's pretty good at that," he said. "I can't tell him what to do, and he hasn't told me what he's going to do. But I do know that he's really giving a lot of things a lot of thought. He's thinking about where he is physically, he wants to see how he can do this some more, trying to get over an injury."

Archie added starting over with new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak will not be an issue for Peyton, if he decides to return next season.

"Yeah, but he loves Gary. He likes Gary," Archie Manning said. "He liked John Fox. He liked Adam Gase. All those things, I think, are considered with. But my deal is he's always made good decisions; he's pretty thorough. He's going to evaluate a lot of things, and I think he'll make a good decision."


RG3: 'I could've sat out the rest of last year' after hurting ankle
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) During a radio interview Wednesday night, Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III indicated the dislocated ankle he suffered in Week 2 against the Jaguars hindered him the rest of the season. He missed six games due to the injury.

“I had never suffered an ankle injury of that severity before, so I didn’t really know what to expect,” Griffin said, per The Washington Times. “It just became more and more tough the more games that we lost, because you know how hard your guys work, and you want to get out there and help them win games.

“I could’ve sat out the rest of last year, with how bad the ankle was, but I felt like I could play, and I wanted to get out there and play with my guys and help them win games. And that didn’t happen when I got back out there. Then coach made a decision [to bench me]. That was an unfortunate decision, and something we all had to go with because that was coach’s choice.”

Griffin will be entering the final guaranteed year of his contract in 2015. The Redskins have until May 3 to decide if they want to exercise the fifth-year option on his contract for 2016. 

Griffin added his focus this offseason will simply be on getting healthy.

“Last year, I wasn’t healthy, and it sucked,” Griffin told ESPN 980. “There’s no other way to say it other than that. When you dislocate your ankle in the second week of the season, when you and your team had big things in mind. So I guess it’s just getting healthy, getting a mental break, getting a chance to spend time with family, and then formulate my plan going forward from this year so we can go out there and win games.”


 
 
 
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