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2012 Fantasy outlooks: Indianapolis Colts

Senior Fantasy Writer
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The last time the Colts took a quarterback at No. 1 overall was 1998 with Peyton Manning, and they hope the addition of Andrew Luck this year will reap similar rewards. Manning took the Colts to two Super Bowls during his tenure, winning one, and had multiple playoff appearances.

As a rookie, Manning passed for 3,739 yards, 26 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. We're expecting Luck to have better stats than that, but don't expect him to be like last year's No. 1 overall pick, Cam Newton, who had 4,051 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions and 706 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.

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Newton finished with 396 Fantasy points and was among nine quarterbacks to top 300 points last year. But finding success as a rookie quarterback hasn't been easy, especially for No. 1 overall picks.

There have been nine quarterbacks selected at No. 1 overall since 2001 (Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford and Newton). Only Newton and Bradford topped 200 Fantasy points as a rookie.

Now, to be fair, Palmer didn't play at all as a rookie, and Vick, Manning, Smith and Russell saw limited playing time. Stafford also didn't finish his rookie season due to an injury. But rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle, especially if you don't have mobility like Newton.

In comparing Luck and Robert Griffin III, we would rather have the Redskins starter in seasonal Fantasy leagues, and Luck should be better in dynasty formats. Griffin should have better Fantasy stats this year with his rushing ability, but Luck projects long-term as the better Fantasy option, maybe as early as 2013.

For this year, he should be a mediocre Fantasy option at best. He has decent weapons in Reggie Wayne, Coby Fleener and Austin Collie, and he should be throwing a lot with the Colts trailing in games. But Luck is not going to post overwhelming stats in his first year and should only be drafted with a late-round pick in seasonal formats.

Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Value Chart
Player Draft Day value Estimated round
Quarterbacks
Andrew Luck 12
Running Backs
Donald Brown 8
Delone Carter ND
Wide Receivers
Reggie Wayne 6
Austin Collie ND
Donnie Avery ND
T.Y. Hilton ND
Tight Ends
Coby Fleener 11
Kickers/Defense
Adam Vinatieri 14
Colts DST ND
ND - not expected to get drafted

Sleeper ... Coby Fleener, tight end
Rarely does a rookie quarterback get his No. 1 receiver from college on the same team in their first year, but that's what the Colts have with Luck and Fleener. The Colts took Fleener in the second round of the NFL Draft out of Stanford, and he should shine with Luck much in the same way Dallas Clark did with Manning. Fleener is a tight end with a similar skill set to Clark in that both are standout receivers. In 2011, Fleener averaged 19.6 yards per reception with 10 touchdowns, which followed up an eight-touchdown campaign in 2010. It might be hard for Fleener to become a No. 1 Fantasy option right away, but he's worth a late-round pick in most standard leagues based on potential alone. He should be drafted with a middle- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a first-round pick in rookie-only formats. He might be the best rookie receiver/tight end this year.

Breakout ... Donald Brown, running back
We often wondered how Brown would do if Joseph Addai was out of the picture, and we got a glimpse in 2011 when Addai missed multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. Brown ended up doing a nice job with double digits in Fantasy points in three of his final five games. This year Addai is gone, and Brown should open as the starter while sharing carries with Delone Carter. Brown has the chance for a career year, and we consider him a No. 3 Fantasy running back on Draft Day. He is not someone you want start on a weekly basis, but with a favorable matchup he could be a great fill-in rusher. Carter also should be considered a sleeper since the Colts could be more run-heavy than in years past under new coach Chuck Pagano.

Bust ... Reggie Wayne, wide receiver
Wayne probably should have jumped ship and left the Colts since Manning, Clark, Addai and Pierre Garcon are gone, but he signed a three-year deal to stay in Indianapolis. It's great that he will finish his career with one team, but Wayne is done as a top-flight Fantasy receiver. Not only does he lose Manning and get a rookie in Luck, but he's a step slower at 33 (he'll be 34 in November). Wayne struggled in 2011 with just four touchdowns and only three games with double digits in Fantasy points. Losing Manning for the season didn't help, but Wayne was due to see a decline in production. The change in quarterback likely accelerates that process. Now, he will still have a good week or two during the season, and he's still a quality option in PPR formats (he has at least 75 catches in every year since 2004). But don't expect Wayne to be over 1,200 receiving yards and reach double digits in touchdowns. He's just not that guy anymore, and he should only be drafted as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver with a mid-round pick.

Schedule breakdown

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
@CHI MIN JAC bye GB @NYJ CLE @TEN MIA @JAC @NE BUF @DET TEN @HOU @KC HOU
Defensively, the Colts are going to go through growing pains, even with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis still around. So much of their success in 2012 will depend on Luck attacking defenses effectively. He should do well against teams lacking a strong pass rush but that accounts for five opponents. From the Bears in Week 1 to a season-ending set of games against the Texans twice with the Chiefs in Week 16, the Colts' schedule is littered with pass rushers aiming at Luck. That should make it tough for him to thrive in his first season.

Training camp topics

The Colts offense has basically looked the same since 1998 with Manning running the show. It will definitely have a new look this season, and the changes should be fun to watch.

2011 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
Donald Brown 134 carries, 16 catches
Joseph Addai 118 carries, 15 catches
Delone Carter 101 carries, 5 catches
Reggie Wayne 75 catches
Pierre Garcon 70 catches, 4 carries

All eyes will be on Luck and his development, but Fantasy owners should pay attention to how Collie does since he will now start in place of Garcon. Rookie T.Y. Hilton could also make an impact, and the Colts are high on Donnie Avery, who is trying to make a comeback after failed stints with St. Louis and Tennessee.

The other thing to watch will be the split in reps with Brown and Carter and whether or not Carter can turn into a touchdown vulture with his short-yardage ability. Where Fleener lines up should also be interesting since he could see time at receiver.

The Colts are in a rebuilding mode after going 2-14 last year. Things should definitely improve and hopefully Fantasy owners can benefit from some better offensive production this year.

Injury update

Carter (thumb; probable for the start of training camp)

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook

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Player News
Seahawks DT Jesse Williams to have kidney surgery Thursday
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(8:39 pm ET) Seahawks defensive tackle Jesse Williams is scheduled to have kidney surgery on Thursday, the team announced. 

This surgery will take place 10 days after he was diagnosed with Papillary Type 2 cancer. 

"He’s a battler all the way," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. "He’s been up against it, too. He’s fought some difficult fights, and he’s fighting another one - maybe the fight of a young man’s life.

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by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(8:35 pm ET) The Seahawks worked in a new first-team center on Tuesday and it wasn't the one projected to fill Max Unger's vacant spot.

According to ESPN.com, Lemuel Jeanpierre worked with the first team during Tuesday's OTA practice. Patrick Lewis, who many projected to be the front-runner for the job, worked in as Jeanpierre's backup.

After practice, coach Pete Carroll said Jeanpierre earned the opportunity to begin OTAs as the first-team center.

Jeanpierre has been with the Seahawks since 2011 and Lewis joined the squad a year ago. Jeanpierre has 11 career starts and Lewis has four, all of which happened with Seattle in 2014.  


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Houston is reportedly seeking a long-term deal and would prefer not to sign the franchise tender the Chiefs are offering. The Chiefs placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on Houston earlier this offseason. 

The Chiefs have until July 15 to work out a long-term deal with the star outside linebacker. If they don't, teams could offer Houston deals with the Chiefs having the right to match. And if the Chiefs chose not to match, they would receive two first-round picks from the team signing Houston away. 

Houston totaled 22 sacks a year ago. Teammate Tamba Hali said that Houston has been working out and would like to practice with the Chiefs if it was possible. 

“Every two or three weeks, we talk,” Hali said. “He's working, he's working his tail off. Like any player, he wants to be here. But we know our league is a business, and we've got to allow that process to work itself out. He wants to be here. He's missing it.”


Titans RB Shonn Greene absent from OTAs
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:55 pm ET) Titans running back Shonn Greene did not attend Tuesday's OTA practice, according to The Tennessean

"Obviously we'd like to have him here," Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt said. "But he's a veteran. He knows how to get himself prepared."

Greene told the Titans, Whisenhunt said, that he's unable to attend at the moment because he is the caretaker of a child. Greene ran for 392 yards and two touchdowns during the 2014 season. 


Eagles G Evan Mathis doesn't show up to OTAs
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:50 pm ET) For the second consecutive season, Eagles guard Evan Mathis was a no-show to OTAs, according to ESPN.com. 

Mathis has received permission to seek a trade though nothing has materialized. After failing to report to OTAs a year ago, Mathis showed up to the Eagles facility on time. 

Mathis is entering his 11th NFL season and fifth with the Eagles. 


Browns RB Isaiah Crowell opens OTAs as starter
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(5:44 pm ET) Isaiah Crowell opened Tuesday's OTA practice as the Browns' starting running back, according to ESPNCleveland.com. 

Crowell, an undrafted free-agent a year ago, and Terrance West split first-team reps. Crowell totaled 607 yards and eight touchdowns while West ran for 673 yards and four. Regardless of who the starter is, the Browns are likely to use a rotation at running back. 


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Hali said the procedure was done to clean out some loose cartilage. 

It's not anything that'e expected to keep Hali off of the field. A year ago, Hali recorded 59 tackles and six sacks. 


Raiders QB Derek Carr (finger) has yet to start throwing
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(5:32 pm ET) Raiders quarterback Derek Carr did not participate in any passing drills during Tuesday's OTA practice, according to the Bay Area News Group. 

Carr has an injured right ring finger that he's not contemplating surgery for. He was able to take snaps and make pitches during practice. Though he's missing the reps now, Carr is expected to be back by the start of training camp. 


Seahawks CB Richard Sherman practices fully on Tuesday
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(5:28 pm ET) Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman did not have any limitations during Tuesday's OTA practice. 

According to the Seattle Times, Sherman, who suffered an elbow injury during this past postseason, was able to practice fully

There was a chance Sherman would need Tommy John surgery, though he decided to let the injury heal on its own. In 2014, Sherman recorded 57 tackles and four interceptions. 


 
 
 
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