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2012 Fantasy outlooks: Washington Redskins

Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

When it comes to the Redskins, it might be best to forget everything you saw from the offense last year and remember everything you know about Mike Shanahan from his coaching career. Washington has made wholesale changes at quarterback and wide receiver, and that should permanently change the direction the unit will move in going forward.

Obviously, the team's huge trade to move up in the NFL Draft and take quarterback Robert Griffin III highlights the Redskins' offseason. Griffin is a terrific fit for Shanahan's version of the West Coast offense, which utilizes quarterback mobility as well as arm strength to overpower defenses. Already tabbed as the starter and working with the playbook since before he was officially drafted, Griffin will be given every chance to succeed this season.

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Those chances to succeed were helped by two additions to the Redskins' receiving corps. Pierre Garcon was snared away from the Colts at an expensive cost and Josh Morgan was added from the 49ers as well. Both have the same qualities Shanahan wanted to employ in his offense: Deep speed and the ability to make a play after the catch. Neither will be asked to work as a true No. 1 receiver, but like Griffin they'll have opportunities to make some plays.

Moreover, their arrival makes the Redskins' receiving corps deep and dangerous as a reinvigorated Santana Moss and rehabilitated Leonard Hankerson join tight ends Fred Davis and Chris Cooley. This is a team bursting at the seams with guys who can catch the ball and make a play, and they'll all be on the field at the same time. It's a big change from last year's receiving unit in D.C.

Because so much attention was given to the offense, including the use of draft picks to acquire Griffin, the team did not get much younger on defense. They made small splashes in free agency adding veterans like linebacker Jonathan Goff and safeties Tanard Jackson, Madieu Williams and Brandon Meriweather. It might prove to be the team's weakness; while they have a pair of dynamic pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, offenses will attack their deep middle regularly and put some points on the board.

Of course, the Redskins offense is now built to respond to such issues. They should score more than the 18.0 points per game they posted last year.

Fantasy Value Chart
Player Draft Day value Estimated round
Quarterbacks
Robert Griffin III 13
Running Backs
Roy Helu 5
Tim Hightower 13
Evan Royster 13
Wide Receivers
Pierre Garcon 8
Santana Moss 11
Leonard Hankerson 12
Josh Morgan ND
Tight Ends
Fred Davis 9
Kickers/Defense
Neil Rackers 14
Redskins DST ND
ND - not expected to get drafted

Bust ... Every Redskins running back

Until the Redskins brought back Tim Hightower, our theory was that second-year back Roy Helu would have the chance to be the next great Mike Shanahan-led rusher to help Fantasy owners dominate. But then Hightower was re-signed to go with a corps that already included Evan Royster, and now the Redskins are looking more and more like a three-headed monster. Helu totaled over 1,000 yards last season but had three touchdowns to show for it -- if he had to split with one guy then we'd find him irresistible as a third- or fourth-round pick. Hightower could re-establish himself as a pass protector and goal-line vulture, which would hurt Helu's stats. And Royster, who's not exactly a dud after rumbling for 245 yards and gaining 59 yards through the air in two games last season, won't be a forgotten man either. Plus, how much will the Redskins want to run when they have Griffin to utilize under center? If you want to safeguard yourself, draft these guys as late as possible to cut down on the risk of having them languish on your bench as poor stat producers. Reaching for Helu especially with a Top 50 or 60 pick could prove to be a reach.

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Sleeper ... Pierre Garcon, wide receiver

Some of Garcon's best work last season came when he caught deep lobs and scored. The Redskins hope he can do a lot more of that this year. The Redskins liked Garcon's deep-ball qualities, not to mention his experience playing in the Colts' up-tempo offense. When Griffin makes it tough on opposing defenses by evading the pass rush and keeping plays alive, Garcon will make it tougher on defensive backs by breaking free and giving Griffin a long-ball outlet. Kendall Wright did a lot of that at Baylor. With Garcon expected to play more snaps than anyone in the Redskins' deep receiving corps (his pricey salary commands it), he's the best bet to shine among all of Washington's wideouts.

Late-round flier ... Leonard Hankerson, wide receiver

Last year Hankerson barely played until he had an opportunity to make his second start at Miami in Week 10, and he caught eight passes for 106 yards. Then he tore the labrum in his hip and was lost for the season. Hankerson's hip has healed, and the big-bodied receiver is expected to be ready to play. What guys like Moss and Garcon give Griffin in speed Hankerson gives him in size -- plus he can run a little bit too. It shouldn't take much for Hankerson to be a regular part of the Redskins' three-receiver set, and he'll be a difficult guy for defenses to cover. Best of all, you might get away with drafting him late or even picking him up off waivers during the first few weeks of the season. We love his upside.

Schedule breakdown

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
@NO @STL CIN @TB ATL MIN @NYG @PIT CAR bye PHI @DAL NYG BAL @CLE @PHI DAL

The first six weeks should give Robert Griffin III a good chance to settle in before he takes on the Giants and Steelers in hard back-to-back road games where the blitzes will be fast and furious. Washington has five divisional matchups in its last seven games, which isn't easy. Shanahan is 4-8 against the NFC East in two seasons, but did beat the Super Bowl champs twice last year (and was swept by the Cowboys and Eagles).

Training camp topics

2011 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
Roy Helu 151 carries, 49 catches
Tim Hightower 84 carries, 10 catches
Jabar Gaffney 68 catches
Ryan Torain 59 carries, 6 catches
Evan Royster 56 carries, 9 catches

All eyes are going to be on Griffin this summer. The Redskins have been without a legit franchise passer for a long, long time -- Griffin fits the bill. He's already been named the starter and just needs to get acclimated with his receivers while learning all the nuances of the NFL game. His offensive line should be healthy to start the season, which will also go a long way. While some Fantasy owners are ready to trust Griffin like they did Cam Newton last season, we doubt he'll score double-digit rushing touchdowns or be a dominant runner. He's got a solid arm and will contribute more that way -- we can't wait to see him work in training camp and the preseason if only to get an idea of who he likes to throw to and how quickly he'll run out of the pocket.

Running back and receiver are stocked so much that the Redskins have to define roles for everyone. So long as all three running backs are healthy and contributing, predicting their playing time will be a difficult task. Remember how annoying it was last year? Expect more of that. The receivers should establish themselves and be easier to project.

There's also a logjam at tight end: Fred Davis broke out last season and reached some of the potential we saw in him as a rookie out of Southern Cal. Chris Cooley is coming off of an injury and looks like he'll make the roster even with a bloated salary figure. The Redskins also have a project in Niles Paul who they'd like to develop into a contributor eventually. Seeing how that group shakes out should be interesting.

But if you're looking for a real camp battle, perhaps it's the kickers. Graham Gano kicked last year and made 31 of 41 attempts including 4 of 6 from 50-plus yards out. But offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan saw kicker Neil Rackers shake free from the Texans this offseason -- the two used to work together -- and got him on the Redskins' roster. Over his last four seasons, Rackers has made 88.5 percent of his field goals (100 of 113) including 8 of 11 from 50-plus yards. Smart money is on him replacing Gano this summer.

Injury update

Tim Hightower (knee; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Leonard Hankerson (hip; probable for the start of training camp) ... Chris Cooley (knee, groin; probable for the start of training camp) ... Josh Morgan (leg; probable for the start of training camp) ... Graham Gano (back; probable for the start of training camp).

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

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Player News
Michael Crabtree
Crabtree shelved with torn Achilles
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
1:56 PM
News: USA Today reports 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Tuesday. It is not known if he will try to play this season (like Terrell Suggs and Da'Quan Bowers did last year). ESPN reports that Crabtree had surgery Wednesday and is expected to be sidelined about six months. That timetable would put Crabtree out until at least some time in November.
Analysis: Crabtree came on very strong for the Niners last season once Colin Kaepernick went under center. In the seven starts Kaepernick made in 2012, Crabtree had 41 catches for 595 yards and five touchdowns. If you project that over 16 games, Crabtree would have finished with 94 catches for 1,360 yards and 11 touchdowns. That's out the window now. We expect the Niners to put Crabtree on the PUP list to begin the season and re-evaluate where he's at in his rehab come October or November. If you draft Crabtree with what would now be a middle- to late-round pick, you'd have to dedicate a bench spot to him for most of the regular season with no guarantee you'd get him in your lineup at 100 percent. The Niners will lean on Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and perhaps second-year receiver A.J. Jenkins to pick up the slack.

Montee Ball
Ball expected to make 'impact'
Montee Ball, RB, DEN
4:10 PM
News: Denver offensive coordinator Adam Gase said Wednesday the team has high expectations for rookie running back Montee Ball. “He’s trying to pick up the offense," Gase said. "He’s a rookie. There are a lot of things going on, and he’s trying to pick it up as quick as possible. Obviously drafting him in the second round, we’re looking for him to make some kind of impact for us and be able to be on the field five, six plays and work together with that group of running backs.”
Analysis: Ball has the chance to start for the Broncos, especially if Willis McGahee and/or Knowshon Moreno are released prior to training camp. Keep an eye on what happens with Ball, who is likely to share playing time with Ronnie Hillman. We view Ball as a No. 2 Fantasy running back with upside. He's worth drafting in Round 5 in most standard leagues.

Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure 'battling some stuff'
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
3:40 PM
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Analysis: We hope Leshoure is OK, and it sounds like he should be fine for training camp. Keep in mind he had an Achilles injury as a rookie and battled some ankle problems in his comeback. As long as Leshoure is back for training camp he should be considered a No. 3 Fantasy running back, and he's worth drafting with a mid-round pick. Keep in mind that even though Bush is the new starter for the Lions, Leshoure should work at the goal line, which will keep his value sustainable in the majority of standard leagues.

Colin Kaepernick
Kaepernick loses top receiver
Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF
2:21 PM
News: USA Today reports 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Tuesday and will undergo surgery. It is not known if he will try to play this season. That's a tough blow for quarterback Colin Kaepernick since Crabtree was clearly his No. 1 receiver. The San Francisco Chronicle reports that in Kaepernick's 10 starts in 2012 he targeted Crabtree more than any other receiver. The target breakdown was Crabtree with 94, Vernon Davis with 39 and Randy Moss with 39.
Analysis: This injury hurts Kaepernick's value for this season. His receiving corps was upgraded with Anquan Boldin replacing Moss, and the 49ers drafted a rookie in Quinton Patton. But now he's without his No. 1 option in Crabtree, which lowers Kaepernick's value. He is still worth drafting as a No. 1 quarterback, but he should be considered toward the end of the Top 10 at best with a mid-round pick.

Hakeem Nicks
Nicks skips OTAs
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
1:29 PM
News: The New York Daily News reports Hakeem Nicks was absent from the team's first day of OTA workouts Wednesday, just hours after attending a charity event in New York the night before and telling reporters he felt good physically following knee surgery. He had attended offseason program. "He should be here," an irked coach Tom Coughlin said, ruling out injury for the reason he's absent.
Analysis: Sounds like this is a case of Nicks showing his unhappiness with his contract. He's slated to be a free agent after the season and wants an extension; the Giants are dragging their feet. Last season Nicks struggled through injuries including a broken foot suffered during OTAs a year ago, leaving him with unappealing Fantasy stats and a large red flag warning owners of injuries to come. Assuming he's eventually in camp on-time and ready for the start of the season he's a high-risk, high-reward No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick in Round 5 or 6. He went in Round 4 in our most recent mock draft, a bit too high in our opinion.

DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins works with starters
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU
10:47 AM
News: The Texans official team website reports that rookie receiver DeAndre Hopkins is making a good impression early on this offseason. “He’s such a dynamic player,” quarterback Matt Schaub said. “He’s just going to bring an added dimension to our offense.” Schaub cited Hopkins’ “great” attitude and work ethic, and is looking forward to what Hopkins will bring to the squad. Hopkins has practiced with the first-team offense, which meant he and Andre Johnson were the starting receivers. Johnson believes Hopkins is well on his way to contributing. “He’s picking up everything pretty well,” Johnson said. “He went and made some plays today and that’s a good thing. I think day-by-day, he’ll continue to get better and better.”
Analysis: Hopkins has the chance to be a solid contributor for the Texans as a rookie, and we would draft him as a key reserve with a mid-round pick. In rookie-only drafts, Hopkins is worth drafting with a first-round selection.

Jeremy Ebert
Ebert treks to Jacksonville
Jeremy Ebert, WR, NE
5:08 PM
News: The Jaguars have signed another Patriots castoff, this time receiver Jeremy Ebert.
Analysis: Ebert hurt his leg last season and didn't play. He's unlikely to make an impact for the Jaguars in 2013.

Demaryius Thomas
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Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN
4:20 PM
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Vernon Davis
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Vernon Davis, TE, SF
2:32 PM
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Analysis: Davis had a down year in 2012 and struggled once Kaepernick took over for Alex Smith. He stepped up his performance in the playoffs, and hopefully he can pick up from there, especially with Crabtree out. Davis is a No. 1 Fantasy tight end in all leagues, especially after this injury, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 6.

Anquan Boldin
Boldin now No. 1 option?
Anquan Boldin, WR, SF
2:29 PM
News: USA Today reports 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Tuesday and will undergo surgery. It is not known if he will try to play this season. The injury now elevates Anquan Boldin to No. 1 on the depth chart. Boldin was traded to the 49ers this offseason from the Ravens.
Analysis: Boldin, at this point in his career, was suited more for a No. 2 receiver role than a No. 1 option. Last year, as the No. 1 option for the Ravens, he caught 65 passes for 921 yards and four touchdowns during the regular season, but he stepped up in the playoffs with 22 catches for 380 yards and four touchdowns. Still, this injury helps his Fantasy value, and Boldin now has the potential to be a No. 3 Fantasy receiver worth a mid-round pick.

 
 
 
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