2012 Fantasy outlooks: Cleveland Browns

Senior Fantasy Writer

July 3, 2012 2:37 PM ET

The Browns changed the face of their offense in the first round of the NFL Draft with the selection of Trent Richardson at No. 3 overall and Brandon Weeden at No. 22. Weeden will compete with Colt McCoy for the starting job, but no one is drafting either quarterback in the majority of Fantasy leagues.

As for Richardson, we like the pick since the Browns had a hole at running back with Peyton Hillis gone. Montario Hardesty and Brandon Jackson will get some touches to help Richardson, but he's going to be a workhorse. And his opportunity along with his skill set makes him a potential Fantasy star. Richardson has been called the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson. He has the speed to break plays and the size to take the beating of a featured rusher. He also can catch the ball out of the backfield; we just don't have many three-down running backs anymore.

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Now, to be fair, there could be some negatives associated with Richardson, and we want to paint the whole picture. The recent history of running backs going first in their class isn't great.

The last two -- Mark Ingram (2011) and C.J. Spiller (2010) -- were unspectacular as rookies. Knowshon Moreno (2009) wasn't bad with more than 1,150 total yards and nine touchdowns, but he wasn't a weekly starter in the majority of leagues. Darren McFadden (2008) -- shocker -- was bothered with injuries, but Peterson (2007) was a star. He had more than 1,600 total yards and 13 touchdowns in his first year.

Can Richardson duplicate that type of performance? Absolutely. But keep in mind he has to face some of the best run defenses in the NFL in his own division with six games against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and each finished in the Top 10 against the run last year. It could be a little tougher than expected for this future star.

If you want Richardson you have to draft him no later than Round 3 in the majority of leagues. A strong training camp and preseason could push his value into Round 2, but Richardson hopefully will live up to his value.

We're high on Richardson and have him ranked in the Top 10 at his position. I'd take his upside over Michael Turner and Steven Jackson, who could both be falling apart, and he's safer at this stage than Matt Forte. Richardson is a great running back to target as early as No. 20 overall in all formats.

Fantasy Value Chart
Player	Draft Day value	Estimated round
Quarterbacks
Brandon Weeden		ND
Colt McCoy		ND
Running Backs
Trent Richardson		2
Montario Hardesty		ND
Brandon Jackson		ND
Chris Ogbonnaya		ND
Wide Receivers
Greg Little		11
Mohammed Massaquoi		ND
Josh Cribbs		ND
Jordan Norwood		ND
Travis Benjamin		ND
Josh Cooper		ND
Tight Ends
Benjamin Watson		ND
Evan Moore		ND
Jordan Cameron		ND
Kickers/Defense
Phil Dawson		ND
Browns DST		ND
ND - not expected to get drafted

Breakout ... Greg Little, wide receiver
Little is hoping the addition of Weeden at quarterback could help his play in his sophomore campaign. Little posted decent stats as a rookie in 2011 with 61 catches for 709 yards and two touchdowns, but he left a lot of production on the field. He had 121 targets, and he was plagued by drops with at least 14 to his credit. We can't put all the blame on McCoy, but Weeden should prove to be a better passer, even as a rookie. Little needs to score more to dramatically improve his Fantasy value, but he could be a PPR standout. He has 75-plus catch potential, and he should be considered a No. 4 Fantasy option in standard leagues and a No. 3 option in PPR formats. Plan on drafting Little with a late-round pick, and hopefully he can click with Weeden right away. It helps that Little is in better shape after losing at least 11 pounds through the end of May.

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Keeper-league target ... Brandon Weeden, quarterback
Weeden doesn't have a lot of long-term value because he's an older rookie at 28 (he'll be 29 in October). But Fantasy owners in dynasty leagues should target Weeden on Draft Day because he could emerge as a decent option, especially in two-quarterback leagues, as early as 2013. The Browns need to improve their receiving corps, but since they will likely be trailing in games we could see Weeden throwing a lot. The Browns attempted 570 passes in 2011 (by comparison, the Packers attempted 552), so Weeden could have the chance to shine. For seasonal leagues, he could be worth a late-round flier in deeper formats. He was great at Oklahoma State last year with 4,727 passing yards, 37 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and he was exceptionally accurate by completing more than 72 percent of his passes. Hopefully those skills will carry over into the NFL.

Sleeper ... Jordan Cameron, tight end
The Browns don't have a lot of quality players on offense, so finding a sleeper isn't easy. And even when they do appear to have some talent, they don't feature them. Cameron could be the best tight end for the Browns, but he's buried on the depth chart behind Benjamin Watson and Evan Moore. He barely played as a rookie with just six catches for 33 yards, but we hope his role will expand this year. Watson's best days are behind him, and while Moore has some potential, the ceiling is higher for Cameron. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues and might just be waiver-wire fodder all year. But the minute he has a breakout game he might be worth adding in all leagues because the talent is definitely there. All he needs is an opportunity to showcase it.

Schedule breakdown

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
PHI	@CIN	BUF	@BAL	@NYG	CIN	@IND	SD	BAL	bye	@DAL	PIT	@OAK	KC	WAS	@DEN	@PIT

Where will the Browns get points from this season? That's the question after reviewing their schedule. Nearly all of their opponents have not just good offenses, but great ones. Realistically, only matchups against the Bills, Colts, Raiders, Chiefs and Redskins (maybe) provide opponents who don't have consistent 27-point potential. The Browns' inability to fight back with their offense, especially their passing game, makes the schedule a non-factor. Obviously, it's not a positive for the Browns outside of the potential of Richardson carrying a heavy load.

Training camp topics

The Browns have said publicly that the quarterback job is open between Weeden and McCoy, but we'd be shocked if McCoy was the starter in Week 1. We've seen what he can do with limited weapons, and it's not pretty.

2011 Touches Leaders
Player	Touches
Peyton Hillis	161 carries, 22 catches
Montario Hardesty	88 carries, 14 catches
Chris Ogbonnaya	73 carries, 23 catches
Greg Little	61 catches, 3 carries
Josh Cribbs	41 catches, 7 carries

Weeden might not fare much better, especially as an older rookie, but he should at least get the chance to try. His ability could help Little improve, and maybe the Browns can develop some other weapons among Mohammed Massaquoi, Josh Cribbs and Cameron.

The star for the Browns should be Richardson, and we hope he has a good camp and preseason to justify the hype. We also hope he can avoid an injury because that appears to be the only thing that could derail his rookie year. Fantasy owners should also pay attention to his backup to find out if Hardesty or Jackson is the handcuff option with a late-round pick.

The Browns don't have a lot of great Fantasy options this year, but if Richardson lives up to his potential he could be a star in his rookie campaign.

Injury update

Jackson (toe; probable for the start of training camp)

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Griffin to be ready by camp?
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
11:54 AM

News: Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan suggested Thursday that quarterback Robert Griffin III has a chance to be ready for the start of training camp. "We're hoping," he said. "He's working extremely hard." Shanahan also said he wouldn't be comfortable starting Griffin without some offseason or preseason work. Griffin was spotted by NFL Network dropping back on passes to receivers while wearing a helmet along with a brace on his right knee on Thursday.

Analysis: It would be incredible for RG3 to be ready to go by late July, less than seven months after getting hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back unless they were convinced he was totally healthy. That seems risky, but for now any positive progress is great for prospective Fantasy owners. Here's a gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Shanahan: Garcon had surgery
Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS
1:41 PM

News: Mike Shanahan disclosed Thursday that wide receiver Pierre Garcon had chest surgery this offseason, but the Washington Times clarified it as a minor procedure on his labrum, which is in the shoulder . It appears Garcon is not a candidate to miss any serious playing time, however. "I think he's really unbelievable. He's come back so fast ..." Shanahan said of his receiver. "lifting weights he shouldn't be able to lift."

Analysis: Garcon is also still battling a toe injury that capsized much of his first year in D.C. As long as he's healthy for the start of the season he's got plenty of upside to offer Fantasy owners. Garcon finished last year averaging 14.4 yards per catch, the second-highest average in his career, but he had a four-year-low 44 receptions with a three-year-worst four scores. Staying healthy is obviously the most important thing he can do to keep him relevant in Fantasy Football but one recurrence of the toe injury could wipe out several games. If he can stay upright -- and assuming quarterback Robert Griffin III is healthy with his knee -- Garcon can be considered a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a mid-round pick.

Casey has knee surgery
James Casey, TE, PHI
11:42 AM

News: USA Today reports that Eagles tight end James Casey will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean out loose cartilage his right knee and will be out of action for the rest of the spring. A team spokesman said Casey should be ready to go by the start of training camp. Casey signed a three-year deal with $14.5 million as one of the first additions for the Eagles in a busy opening few days in free agency. The former Texans fullback/tight end is expected to play a key role in coach Chip Kelly's offense.

Analysis: Casey had career-highs with 34 receptions, 330 yards and three touchdowns last year, numbers that could spike with the Eagles because of the expected design of the offense and the up-tempo style that will result in more snaps. Like any player getting used to Kelly's offense, Casey would surely benefit from more reps through the rest of organized team activities and minicamp, so being sidelined for the next month isn't ideal. Still, if all goes as well as planned, Casey should get plenty of time on the field in July and August as long as he's healthy. He's not worth drafting in most leagues, but Casey is someone to monitor as a potential waiver wire addition if he's fine as expected following this procedure.

Manning to CBS: My arm is stronger
Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
11:34 AM

News: In an exclusive Q&A with CBSSports.com NFL Columnist Pete Prisco, Peyton Manning admitted to being nervous about his arm as far back as June 2011 when he had a hard time throwing at all, then again last season when he forced some things in a road game at Atlanta. But a year removed from rehabbing his arm, Manning sounds confident in his skills. "I feel much more comfortable than I was last year. I am stronger than I was last year. I am throwing the ball better now in May of 2013 than I did in May of 2012 -- significantly better," he said. "I got better throughout the season. I am not doing the monthly update reports anymore. I am past that."

Analysis: The Broncos will attempt to move into a more up-tempo approach this season and added Wes Welker to an already stacked receiving corps. Manning should be in for a very good season, perhaps even better than the one he had last year. Manning is a candidate for 300 yards and at least two scores every week. He should be considered an elite passer worth a pick between the middle of Round 2 and the end of Round 3, depending on your league's size and scoring system.

Richardson misses practice
Trent Richardson, RB, CLE
10:57 AM

News: Browns coach Rob Chudzinski comfirmed running back Trent Richardson missed practice Thursday with a lower leg muscle pull. "It's precautionary," Chudzinski said. "We are holding him out. He may miss minicamp in a week and a half. I'm not sure, we'll just take it day-by-day."

Analysis: The Browns can't take chances with their prized running back, particularly since he'll be featured in an offense that will lean heavily on him. Richardson established himself as one of the top young running backs in the league last season with 267 carries for 950 yards with 11 touchdowns and another 51 catches for 367 yards and a score. He should be able to better those stats this season as long as he's healthy. You're taking him with a Top 5 pick.

Welker expects catches to drop
Wes Welker, WR, DEN
10:55 AM

News: The Denver Post reports that new Broncos receiver Wes Welker doesn't expect to reach his average for receptions, which was 112 over the past six seasons with the Patriots. "If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we're in trouble," Welker said. "(The catches) are not the goal," Welker said. "The goal is to go out there and help your team win games. However many catches that is, however many blocks that takes, however many routes I've got to run, whatever. I think we all feel the same way about that." The report says that in New England, the Patriots don't feature their outside receivers. In recent years, they have become a tight end-slot attack. Not so the Broncos. For all the questions about Peyton Manning's arm strength last year, he threw enough outside the numbers to help Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker develop into one of the NFL's top receiver tandems. "I mean, we have two really good guys. We can't ignore them," Welker said. "If one guy is catching 112 balls, the defense is focusing in on that guy. We want defenses focusing on everybody and having to worry about everybody. That was one of the main reasons I came here."

Analysis: Now, before you downgrade Welker, keep in mind it's not like the plan calls for him to go from 112 catches to 50. Manning won't forget his friends, but he won't ignore the new guy, either. Welker's Fantasy value definitely takes a hit going from New England to Denver, but he remains a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick in Round 4 or 5 in standard leagues. In PPR formats, look for Welker to be drafted as early as Round 3 since he should still be around 85-plus catches despite the drop-off with the Broncos.

Harvin to get time at running back
Percy Harvin, WR, SEA
10:46 AM

News: The Seattle Times reports that new Seattle receiver Percy Harvin is already making an impact. "His talent level is unbelievable, off the charts," said quarterback Russell Wilson. "He brings an explosive mentality to the game, which a lot of our guys already have. But to have him is truly tremendous. He's a guy that's been one of the best football players in the National Football League for the past several years." Harvin, 24, has averaged 1,800 total yards in four seasons and was on pace for 2,400 yards in 2012 — which would have led the NFL — before an ankle injury ended his season. In those nine games, he had 62 catches — 12 more than any Seahawk — for 677 yards. He also had 96 yards rushing and 574 yards on kickoff returns, including a 105-yard touchdown return. The Seahawks plan to use him similarly. He'll likely line up in the slot as his regular spot, but figures to get used outside, as well, and should see his share of handoffs and kickoff returns. "I'll be moving around — pretty much all around," said Harvin. "There'll be a little bit of running back coming up. But right now, we're just trying to get the foundation set, just running the base plays, and we'll see where it goes from there."

Analysis: We're excited about Harvin in Seattle because he should be able to remain highly involved on offense with better talent around him. Harvin remains a solid No. 1 Fantasy receiver, and he's worth drafting in Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, especially if he continues to see time in the backfield.

Rodgers: Cobb could catch 100 passes
Randall Cobb, WR, GB
10:37 AM

News: ESPN reports that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has high expectations for third-year receiver Randall Cobb this season. Last year, Cobb made an enormous jump in his second NFL season. With Greg Jennings out with a torn abdominal muscle, Cobb played 733 snaps and caught a team-high 80 passes for 954 yards and added eight touchdowns. Rodgers thinks Cobb can do more. "I think Randall Cobb is a guy who could be a 100-plus catch guy every year," Rodgers said.

Analysis: We don't think Rodgers is far off with Cobb, who could take the next step in his career in his third season. The Packers as a team have high expectations for Cobb, and we like him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option. Plan on drafting Cobb in Round 4 in the majority of leagues, with his value slightly higher in PPR formats.

Williams played 'scared' in '12
Ryan Williams, RB, ARI
10:08 AM

News: Cardinals running back Ryan Williams told the Arizona Republic that he was more concerned about his knee than his play last season, saying he played scared. Williams came back from a torn patella tendon suffered in 2011 and wasn't ready for the physical punishment that comes with playing running back. Per the story, he got nervous when then-quarterback Kevin Kolb would call '39 toss' because it exposed his right side and his injured knee. The lack of confidence left him "pretty much scared all last year to get the ball in my hands." He added hurting his shoulder was a "blessing" because it allowed him time to get his knee feeling good. Now he says he's not scared anymore. "This is the healthiest I've felt in the past two years," Williams said. "It feels good to be able to run like myself, instinctive and not having to think about what I’m doing, just going out and doing it. I've been working real hard, so things are looking good. My stars are aligned this year."

Analysis: In the story coach Bruce Arians noted that Williams has his mobility back and is someone to watch when the pads come on. Williams has to fight for playing time after the Cardinals drafted Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington and signed Rashard Mendenhall. For now he's no better than a late-round flier but if he looks good in camp and runs with confidence then we could see him getting a decent amount of work.

Harbaugh: Crabtree will play in '13
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
8:45 AM

News: 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh indicated that Michael Crabtree's torn right Achilles will not cost him the entire season. With surgery already done, it is believed Crabtree will return within six months. Linebacker Patrick Willis said Crabtree went down after making a "simple, normal cut" after going in motion and before starting his route during 7 on 7 drills. "Crab is one of those tough guys. He can get hit hard, and he'll bounce right back up," Willis told the San Jose Mercury News. "Yesterday he stayed down a little longer than normal. You say a little prayer and hope it wasn't as bad as it looked. Unfortunately it is."

Analysis: Crabtree was expected to post ridiculous numbers in 2013 after becoming Colin Kaepernick's go-to receiver last year and his promise to dedicate himself to being the Niners' top receiver this year. Eventually he should return and contribute to the Niners but the earliest it seems he could be back is Week 12 at Washington. If you draft Crabtree with what would now be a late-round pick, you'd have to dedicate a bench spot to him for most of the regular season with no guarantee you'd get him in your lineup at 100 percent, if at all. We'd rather spend the same late-round pick on Anquan Boldin or maybe even A.J. Jenkins knowing both will see a lot of work in San Francisco with Crabtree sidelined.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings