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2012 Fantasy outlooks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Senior Fantasy Writer
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The Bucs were a complete disaster in 2011, which led to coach Raheem Morris being fired and several significant upgrades this offseason. We hope more Fantasy production will follow with the new additions.

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Greg Schiano steps in as the head coach from Rutgers, and he has some new toys to play with. The Bucs spent big money on receiver Vincent Jackson (five years at $55 million with $26 million guaranteed) and guard Carl Nicks (five years at $47.5 million with $31 million guaranteed) and replaced Kellen Winslow (traded to Seattle) for Dallas Clark. Tampa Bay also drafted a new running back in the first round with Boise State's Doug Martin.

On defense, the Bucs had to shore up a unit that allowed the most points in the NFL at 30.8 per game. They managed a league low 23 sacks, and the Bucs hope the addition of first-round pick Mark Barron, a safety from Alabama, will help stop opposing offenses.

Tampa Bay was considered a team on the rise following a strong campaign in 2010, which featured quality Fantasy performances from Josh Freeman, Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount. Now the Bucs will have to rebound after falling apart last year, and they have to hope Freeman and his new weapons are up to the challenge.

Fantasy Value Chart
Player Draft Day value Estimated round
Quarterbacks
Josh Freeman 12
Running Backs
Doug Martin 5
LeGarrette Blount 9
Wide Receivers
Vincent Jackson 5
Mike Williams 11
Preston Parker ND
Arrelious Benn ND
Dezmon Briscoe ND
Tight Ends
Dallas Clark 11
Kickers/Defense
Connor Barth ND
Buccaneers DST ND
ND - not expected to get drafted

Impact rookie ... Doug Martin, running back
Blount is not going to hand over his job to Martin. In fact, Blount hopes to remain the starter, and he has a good argument. Last year, as bad as Blount was, he did OK when given touches. In games where he had at least 18 carries last season, he totaled three 100-yard rush games and scored three touchdowns. Of course, Blount had only five games with at least 18 carries as he lost playing time because he fumbled too much (five on the season) and wasn't effective early on in games. Enter Martin, who has a skill set similar to Ray Rice, who Schiano coached at Rutgers. We can see both running backs sharing carries, but Martin has a ton of upside. He projects as a No. 2 Fantasy running back in standard leagues with his value slightly higher in PPR formats. We could see Martin reaching 1,200 total yards, and the key will be how many touchdowns he can score, especially with Blount as a potential vulture. Martin should be drafted in Round 5, and Blount is a good late-round target in Round 9.

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Bust ... Vincent Jackson, wide receiver
I tend to stay away from players like Jackson who beg for a new contract and leave a team for big money elsewhere. Does he deserve to get paid? Absolutely. Does that mean he will succeed in his new home? Probably not. To give you an idea of some receivers who have left a good situation and not panned out look at Sidney Rice in Seattle, Santonio Holmes with the Jets and Anquan Boldin in Baltimore. All were better with their previous team, and the same could happen with Jackson. He gets a downgrade in quarterback from Philip Rivers to Freeman, and Jackson's production should decline. I don't consider him a guaranteed starter in the majority of leagues, and the earliest Jackson should be drafted is Round 5 in standard formats.

Bounce-back candidate ... Josh Freeman, quarterback
Freeman was a Top 12 quarterback in 2010 mostly because he was solid with few mistakes. He passed for just 3,451 yards, but he had 25 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He added 364 rushing yards and appeared poised for a breakout in 2011. But his stellar touchdown-to-interception ratio fell apart last year with 16 touchdowns and 22 picks. His passing yards only improved marginally at 3,592, and his rushing stats dropped to 238 yards (he did score four rushing touchdowns). This year, Freeman should rebound to have his best season. The Bucs upgraded at receiver with Jackson and improved the offensive line with Nicks. Martin should excel out of the backfield, and if Clark has anything left, he should help as well. We also hope Mike Williams is a bounce-back candidate, and the Bucs offense should improve as a whole. Freeman should be considered a solid No. 2 Fantasy quarterback with a late-round pick. It would not be a stretch to see him return as a Top 12 option.

Schedule breakdown

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CAR @NYG @DAL WAS bye KC NO @MIN @OAK SD @CAR ATL @DEN PHI @NO STL @ATL
The Bucs defense isn't expected to be great, and they play their fair share of explosive offenses. That should mean a lot of playing from behind for the Tampa Bay offense, which in turn could mean some good opportunities for the passing game. The Bucs did land nearly a month at home with a three-game homestand with a bye week in the middle in the early going, and that could help settle their offense down. The feeling remains that they'll simply get outscored in most of their games.

Training camp topics

There should be a good training camp battle between Martin and Blount for the starting job. Martin missed some offseason workouts due to a hamstring injury, which has helped Blount to learn the new offense. He has reportedly looked good and has improved how he holds the ball, which should help his fumble woes.

2011 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
LeGarrette Blount 184 carries, 15 catches
Kellen Winslow 75 catches
Kregg Lumpkin 41 catches, 31 carries
Mike Williams 65 catches, 1 carry
Earnest Graham 37 carries, 26 catches

The Bucs will likely stick with Williams as a starter opposite Jackson, but he has a lot to prove after what happened last year. Williams went from 65 catches, 964 yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie in 2010 to 65 catches, 771 yards and three touchdowns in his sophomore campaign. We think Williams will rebound, but he's only worth a late-round pick.

The same goes for Clark, who struggled in 2011 without Peyton Manning. Clark had to settle for signing with the Bucs, and his days as a starting Fantasy tight end are behind him. He should only be added off the waiver wire if he starts out the season playing well.

Injury update

Martin (hamstring; probable for the start of training camp) ... Da'Quan Bowers (Achilles; hopeful to return toward end of season)

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

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Player News
Vikings place Adrian Peterson on Exempt/Commissioner's Permission list
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(2:04 am ET) The Vikings released a statement early Wednesday morning that running back Adrian Peterson has been placed on the Exempt/Commissioner's Permission list, which means he cannot play until further notice.

The statement was signed by Zygi Wilf and Mark Wilf.

"This has been an ongoing and deliberate process since last Friday’s news," the statement said. "In conversations with the NFL over the last two days, the Vikings advised the League of the team's decision to revisit the situation regarding Adrian Peterson. In response, the League informed the team of the option to place Adrian on the Exempt/Commissioner’s Permission list, which will require that Adrian remain away from all team activities while allowing him to take care of his personal situation until the legal proceedings are resolved. After giving the situation additional thought, we have decided this is the appropriate course of action for the organization and for Adrian."


NFLPA files appeal on behalf of Ray Rice
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9/16/2014) The NFL Players Association announced Tuesday that it has filed an appeal in the case of former Ravens running back Ray Rice, CBSSports.com NFL insider Jason La Canfora reports.

Rice was initially suspended two games for an offseason domestic-violence incident, but he was cut from the team and suspended indefinitely by the league after a new video of the incident surfaced last week. The argument in the appeal is that Rice is being punished twice for the same offense. The NFLPA has requested that an independent arbitrator hear the appeal rather than commissioner Roger Goodell.


NFL, NFLPA finishing up new drug policy
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9/16/2014) The NFL and the NFL Players Association are finalizing a new drug policy Tuesday evening, and a formal announcement is expected to be made by Wednesday morning, CBSSports.com NFL insider Jason La Canfora reports.

The NFLPA has begun to notify players of the revamped suspensions under the new policy, including Browns receiver Josh Gordon officially having his suspension reduced to 10 games. Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker, Rams wide receiver Stedman Bailey and Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick are among the handful of players who should be able to rejoin their respective teams Wednesday in preparation of playing in Week 3.

However, Dolphins defenders Dion Jordan and Reshad Jones are not expected to be affected by the change in policy, the Palm Beach Post reports, leaving their suspensions active for two more games.


John Abraham yet to pass concussion protocol
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9/16/2014) Cardinals linebacker John Abraham didn't pass the concussion protocol Tuesday, FOXSports.com reports. Abraham will attempt to be cleared Wednesday as he looks to return from his Week 1 injury.

Arthur Jones to miss 2-4 weeks with high ankle sprain
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9/16/2014) Colts defensive lineman Arthur Jones will be sidelined 2-to-4 weeks while recovering from a high ankle sprain, NFL.com reports.

The Colts have already dealt with issues stopping the run in the team's first two games, and Jones' absence could mean their defensive woes could continue. Fortunately, the team faces a juicy matchup against the pedestrian Jaguars offense in Week 3.


Davon Coleman suffers calf injury
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9/16/2014) Cowboys defensive tackle Davon Coleman strained his left calf muscle while doing squats in the weight room Monday, the Dallas Morning News reports.

The rookie drew the start in Week 1 against the 49ers but becomes the latest in a long line of injuries to the Dallas defense. He remains hopeful he'll be able to suit up this Sunday.


Report: Vikings could 'reverse course' on Adrian Peterson move
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9/16/2014) The Vikings may "reverse course" on the decision to let running back Adrian Peterson play in Week 3, Pro Football Talk reports.

With Minnesota governor Mark Dayton calling for Peterson's suspension and the team losing sponsor Radisson Hotels in the wake of Peterson's re-activation, the team may decide to de-activate the running back yet again and keep him off the active roster until his legal situation has been resolved.


Raiders make it official, sign Vincent Brown
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(9/16/2014) The Raiders made it official Tuesday, signing former Chargers wideout Vincent Brown. He had 41 catches for 472 yards and a touchdown last season with San Diego.

Lions make roster moves
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(9/16/2014) The Lions put cornerback Nevin Lawson (dislocated toes) on injured reserve, signed cornerback Danny Gorrer and promoted linebacker Julian Stanford from the practice squad.

Cardinals sign Victor Butler, release two players
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(9/16/2014) The Cardinals announced Tuesday they signed outside linebacker Victor Butler. Arizona also announced it released linebacker Marcus Benard and punter Drew Butler.

 
 
 
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