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2012 Fantasy outlooks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Senior Fantasy Writer
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The Bucs were a complete disaster in 2011, which led to coach Raheem Morris being fired and several significant upgrades this offseason. We hope more Fantasy production will follow with the new additions.

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Greg Schiano steps in as the head coach from Rutgers, and he has some new toys to play with. The Bucs spent big money on receiver Vincent Jackson (five years at $55 million with $26 million guaranteed) and guard Carl Nicks (five years at $47.5 million with $31 million guaranteed) and replaced Kellen Winslow (traded to Seattle) for Dallas Clark. Tampa Bay also drafted a new running back in the first round with Boise State's Doug Martin.

On defense, the Bucs had to shore up a unit that allowed the most points in the NFL at 30.8 per game. They managed a league low 23 sacks, and the Bucs hope the addition of first-round pick Mark Barron, a safety from Alabama, will help stop opposing offenses.

Tampa Bay was considered a team on the rise following a strong campaign in 2010, which featured quality Fantasy performances from Josh Freeman, Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount. Now the Bucs will have to rebound after falling apart last year, and they have to hope Freeman and his new weapons are up to the challenge.

Fantasy Value Chart
Player Draft Day value Estimated round
Quarterbacks
Josh Freeman 12
Running Backs
Doug Martin 5
LeGarrette Blount 9
Wide Receivers
Vincent Jackson 5
Mike Williams 11
Preston Parker ND
Arrelious Benn ND
Dezmon Briscoe ND
Tight Ends
Dallas Clark 11
Kickers/Defense
Connor Barth ND
Buccaneers DST ND
ND - not expected to get drafted

Impact rookie ... Doug Martin, running back
Blount is not going to hand over his job to Martin. In fact, Blount hopes to remain the starter, and he has a good argument. Last year, as bad as Blount was, he did OK when given touches. In games where he had at least 18 carries last season, he totaled three 100-yard rush games and scored three touchdowns. Of course, Blount had only five games with at least 18 carries as he lost playing time because he fumbled too much (five on the season) and wasn't effective early on in games. Enter Martin, who has a skill set similar to Ray Rice, who Schiano coached at Rutgers. We can see both running backs sharing carries, but Martin has a ton of upside. He projects as a No. 2 Fantasy running back in standard leagues with his value slightly higher in PPR formats. We could see Martin reaching 1,200 total yards, and the key will be how many touchdowns he can score, especially with Blount as a potential vulture. Martin should be drafted in Round 5, and Blount is a good late-round target in Round 9.

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Bust ... Vincent Jackson, wide receiver
I tend to stay away from players like Jackson who beg for a new contract and leave a team for big money elsewhere. Does he deserve to get paid? Absolutely. Does that mean he will succeed in his new home? Probably not. To give you an idea of some receivers who have left a good situation and not panned out look at Sidney Rice in Seattle, Santonio Holmes with the Jets and Anquan Boldin in Baltimore. All were better with their previous team, and the same could happen with Jackson. He gets a downgrade in quarterback from Philip Rivers to Freeman, and Jackson's production should decline. I don't consider him a guaranteed starter in the majority of leagues, and the earliest Jackson should be drafted is Round 5 in standard formats.

Bounce-back candidate ... Josh Freeman, quarterback
Freeman was a Top 12 quarterback in 2010 mostly because he was solid with few mistakes. He passed for just 3,451 yards, but he had 25 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He added 364 rushing yards and appeared poised for a breakout in 2011. But his stellar touchdown-to-interception ratio fell apart last year with 16 touchdowns and 22 picks. His passing yards only improved marginally at 3,592, and his rushing stats dropped to 238 yards (he did score four rushing touchdowns). This year, Freeman should rebound to have his best season. The Bucs upgraded at receiver with Jackson and improved the offensive line with Nicks. Martin should excel out of the backfield, and if Clark has anything left, he should help as well. We also hope Mike Williams is a bounce-back candidate, and the Bucs offense should improve as a whole. Freeman should be considered a solid No. 2 Fantasy quarterback with a late-round pick. It would not be a stretch to see him return as a Top 12 option.

Schedule breakdown

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CAR @NYG @DAL WAS bye KC NO @MIN @OAK SD @CAR ATL @DEN PHI @NO STL @ATL
The Bucs defense isn't expected to be great, and they play their fair share of explosive offenses. That should mean a lot of playing from behind for the Tampa Bay offense, which in turn could mean some good opportunities for the passing game. The Bucs did land nearly a month at home with a three-game homestand with a bye week in the middle in the early going, and that could help settle their offense down. The feeling remains that they'll simply get outscored in most of their games.

Training camp topics

There should be a good training camp battle between Martin and Blount for the starting job. Martin missed some offseason workouts due to a hamstring injury, which has helped Blount to learn the new offense. He has reportedly looked good and has improved how he holds the ball, which should help his fumble woes.

2011 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
LeGarrette Blount 184 carries, 15 catches
Kellen Winslow 75 catches
Kregg Lumpkin 41 catches, 31 carries
Mike Williams 65 catches, 1 carry
Earnest Graham 37 carries, 26 catches

The Bucs will likely stick with Williams as a starter opposite Jackson, but he has a lot to prove after what happened last year. Williams went from 65 catches, 964 yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie in 2010 to 65 catches, 771 yards and three touchdowns in his sophomore campaign. We think Williams will rebound, but he's only worth a late-round pick.

The same goes for Clark, who struggled in 2011 without Peyton Manning. Clark had to settle for signing with the Bucs, and his days as a starting Fantasy tight end are behind him. He should only be added off the waiver wire if he starts out the season playing well.

Injury update

Martin (hamstring; probable for the start of training camp) ... Da'Quan Bowers (Achilles; hopeful to return toward end of season)

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

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Player News
Report: Patriots RB Shane Vereen expected to go Week 8
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:39 am ET) Patriots running back Shane Vereen is expected to play Week 8 against the Bears.

Vereen missed Friday's practice due to an illness, and is considered questionable for Sunday's game. Despite the illness, it would be a surprise if Vereen did not play, according to the report. Vereen scored two touchdowns Week 7 against the Jets. 


Chargers RB Ryan Mathews could return Week 9
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) There's a chance Chargers running back Ryan Mathews will return Week 9, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune.

"That's in my head," Mathews said. "I'm just going keep doing my treatment this week, come back on Monday, and see what they say." Mathews has missed six straight games due to an MCL sprain. Mathews was able to put in some work prior to Thursday night's game, though he was not a candidate to play. He seemed to handle the workout well. 


Report: Reggie Bush unlikely to play Week 8
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Lions running back Reggie Bush is unlikely to play Week 8 against the Falcons.

Bush is considered doubtful due to an ankle issue, so the move shouldn't come as a big surprise. With Detroit on a bye Week 9, the team will rest Bush another week so that he's healthy down the stretch. 


Report: Lions WR Calvin Johnson unlikely to go in London
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson is unlikely to play Week 8 in London, according to ESPN.

Johnson was officially listed on the team's final injury report as questionable due to an ankle injury. With Detroit on a bye Week 9, the team is leaning toward resting Johnson in order to make sure he's healthy down the stretch. 


Cardinals DE Calais Campbell a game-time decision Week 8
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Cardinals coach Bruce Arians said Friday that defensive end Calais Campbell will be a game-time decision Sunday against the Eagles in Week 8, per ESPN. Campbell missed the last two games after suffering a Grade 2 MCL sprain against Denver in Week 5. He returned to the practice field Thursday and Friday and was officially listed as questionable.

"I feel explosive and everything, so it depends on what you consider limited," Campbell said. "In my opinion, I feel like I can play football and help the team win."

Raiders CB D.J. Hayden could be activated before Sunday's game
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Raiders coach Tony Sparano told reporters Friday that D.J. Hayden is "good to go," but would not commit to whether the cornerback will be activated off the Physically Unable to Perform List in time for Week 8 against the Browns, ESPN reports. The team is expected to place Usama Young and LaMarr Woodley on the season-ending injured reserve list, which would open a spot for Hayden.

The Raiders have 12 days remaining to activate Hayden, or else he lands on the injured reserve list.


Raiders will place Usama Young, LaMarr Woodley on IR
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Raiders safety Usama Young and defensive end LaMarr Woodley will likely be placed on season-ending injured reserve list, Tony Sparano told the Bay Area News Group on Friday. Young suffered a torn ACL and MCL and Woodley suffered a torn bicep Week 8 against Arizona.

Saints RB Mark Ingram: 'I've got to step up' for my teammates
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Saints lead back Mark Ingram wants to return the favor to the backfield mates that carried the load when he missed three games with a broken hand by performing well with them out.

Ingram has been thrust back into the featured back role for Sunday night against Green Bay with injuries sidelining Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson.

"A couple guys are down, so I've got to step up and pull my weight and do my job," Ingram told the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

Ingram certainly pulled his weight before his injury. He rushed for 143 yards on 6.0 YPC with three touchdowns in the first two games. But he managed just 16 yards on 10 attempts at Detroit in Week 7.


Patriots add LB Davis, WR Krause to practice squad
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) The Patriots announced a pair of minor roster moves Friday. The team re-signed linebacker Ja'Gared Davis to the practice squad and signed rookie wide receiver Jonathan Krause to the practice squad, per the team's official website.

Seahawks SS Kam Chancellor all but cleared for Week 8
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor has been deemed probable for the Week 8 game at Carolina despite an ankle issue. He practiced in full Thursday and Friday after not participating Wednesday.

Chancellor has started in every game this season and has registered 44 tackles.


 
 
 
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