2012 Fantasy outlooks: Chicago Bears

Senior Fantasy Writer

July 9, 2012 11:49 AM ET

The first thing that comes to mind when you think of a team getting rid of Mike Martz is not that they would become more offensive. But that's where we are with the Bears.

Martz is gone as the offensive coordinator, taking with him his deep-drop passing system that nearly got Jay Cutler killed, and he will be replaced by Mike Tice. Cutler is not going to take many seven-step drops this year behind a porous offensive line, and the Bears gave him some new weapons in Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Michael Bush.

Follow us, Like us, Join us
Want more? Join the discussion on our Facebook page and Google+ and follow us on Twitter for additional insight while interacting with a community geared toward Fantasy Football.

Cutler has the chance for a solid year, especially being reunited with Marshall, and we like him as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback with upside. Marshall also projects as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver with the chance to be a No. 1 option even though former Bears receiver Muhsin Muhammed once said that "Chicago is where receivers go to die." Marshall is worth drafting in Round 4 in most formats.

A big key for the Bears on offense will be what happens with Matt Forte and his contract. He was designated as the franchise player this offseason, but he wants a long-term extension. The Bears covered themselves by signing Bush, but Forte is the best player on Chicago's offense and a Fantasy star when healthy.

If Forte has a long holdout then his Fantasy value will plummet and the Bears could struggle. But if he signs a new deal prior to training camp then he can again shine, and the Bears could be tough to stop.

Fantasy Value Chart
Player	Draft Day value	Estimated round
Quarterbacks
Jay Cutler		10
Running Backs
Matt Forte		2
Michael Bush		6
Kahlil Bell		ND
Wide Receivers
Brandon Marshall		4
Alshon Jeffery		12
Earl Bennett		ND
Devin Hester		ND
Johnny Knox		ND
Tight Ends
Kellen Davis		ND
Kickers/Defense
Robbie Gould		14
Bears DST		13
ND - not expected to get drafted

Bust ... Matt Forte, running back
Forte's Fantasy value would be in trouble even if he wasn't dealing with a contract situation. The addition of Bush, who had 1,395 total yards and eight touchdowns last year for the Raiders, would already hinder his production. Bush is expected to share carries with Forte, and he will likely work at the goal line. Forte only has one year with double digits in touchdowns, which was as a rookie in 2008 with 12 (he has two seasons with only four), so scoring would be limited. Factor in less rushing yards, and we're talking about his receiving skills having to carry him. On top of that, factor in a potential holdout, and Forte is not looking too attractive as an elite Fantasy option. We saw what happened to Chris Johnson last year with his holdout, but Johnson didn't share carries. If you want to draft Forte in standard leagues then you should probably select him in Round 2, but it's better to wait until Round 3 if possible. His value is higher in PPR formats because he does have at least 51 catches in every year of his career, but I would avoid drafting Forte with an early-round pick because he seems to have more cons than pros this year.

Check out our Fantasy Football podcast!
There is no offseason for our Fantasy writers. Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Adam Aizer will help you pass the time as you anticipate Draft Day 2013!
Latest episode \| Subscribe via iTunes

Impact rookie ... Alshon Jeffery, wide receiver
The Bears plan to start Devin Hester opposite Marshall, but we expect Jeffery to be the No. 2 receiver for the Bears, especially with Johnny Knox (back) possibly out for the season. Jeffery has plenty of upside thanks to his size, hands and opportunity. With the Bears likely to lean on Marshall, Jeffery should have plenty of single coverage. The 6-foot-3, 220 pound former standout at South Carolina totaled 179 career receptions for 2,894 yards (16.2 yards per catch) and 22 touchdowns in college. He'll probably take a while to be that productive in the pros, but expectations are growing for him. He's worth a late pick in deeper seasonal drafts, a mid- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a second-round choice in rookie-only formats.

Sleeper ... Kellen Davis, tight end
If you were to guess who led the Bears in receiving touchdowns in 2011 you likely wouldn't have thought of Davis. But he had five touchdowns while playing in an offense that didn't utilize tight ends as receivers on a regular basis, and he finished with just 18 catches for 206 yards. This year, the Bears have a new offense, and Davis should be much more involved. Davis has tremendous size at 6-foot-7, 267 pounds, and he's a big target for Cutler in the red zone. He could emerge as a Marcedes Lewis-type receiver with minimal catches and yards but a decent amount of touchdowns. Davis isn't worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he is someone to put on your radar. If he starts off the season playing well then he is someone to add off the waiver wire.

Schedule breakdown

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
IND	@GB	STL	@DAL	@JAC	bye	DET	CAR	@TEN	HOU	@SF	MIN	SEA	@MIN	GB	@ARI	@DET

The Bears shouldn't be any worse than 3-2 going into their bye (they might even be 4-1). It's a great early first-half schedule for their offense. Things will get worse starting in Week 10, but they should still be productive. Some quirks: They play the Vikings twice in three weeks, with their second meeting the first of three road dome games they'll play over the final four weeks. Getting their Thursday game out of the way early helps.

Training camp topics

The last time Cutler played with Marshall was 2008 in Denver, which was the best season of his career. He passed for 4,526 yards, 25 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. Likewise, Marshall had 206 catches for 2,590 yards and 13 touchdowns during the two years Cutler was his starter. It also helps that joining them will be former Denver coordinator Jeremy Bates, who is an assistant now with the Bears.

2011 Touches Leaders
Player	Touches
Matt Forte	203 carries, 52 catches
Marion Barber	114 carries, 5 catches
Kahlil Bell	79 carries, 19 catches
Johnny Knox	37 catches
Roy Williams	37 catches

We hope they pick up where they left off, and this passing game has the chance to shine. It should be fun to watch the different wrinkles in the offense with the change from Martz to Tice.

Of course, having Forte in camp will be huge, and Fantasy owners will continue to monitor what develops with his contract. The longer he stays out the worse his value will be and the more owners will start to focus on Bush. If Forte is not a holdout then plan on drafting Bush with a mid-round pick as a No. 3 Fantasy running back.

Injury update

Cutler (thumb; probable for the start of training camp) ... Jeffery (leg; probable for the start of training camp) ... Johnny Knox (back; doubtful for the start of training camp) ... Brian Urlacher (knee; questionable for the start of training camp)

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

Garrett: Murray tweaked hamstring
DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL
12:59 PM

News: Cowboys coach Jason Garrett told the media Tuesday running back DeMarco Murray tweaked a hamstring over the last week. The team opted to be conservative with him and had him sit out practice on Tuesday. Murray was spotted on the sidelines during the Cowboys' first day of OTA workouts.

Analysis: Murray's injury history goes a long way back -- and the Cowboys know it. Keeping him healthy will be a tough chore for the next several months but taking careful, proactive steps like this will keep him from being absent. His health will remain key as he's missed nine games over his first two seasons in the league and has had the injury bug biting him going back to his high school days. But Murray had 10-plus Fantasy points in half of his 10 games last season and has the confidence of the coaching staff. He's a moderately risky No. 2 Fantasy running back expected to get taken between 25th and 40th overall on Draft Day.

MJD's training moves to Miami
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
10:59 AM

News: Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley confirmed that running back Maurice Jones-Drew will step up the intensity in his workouts in Miami with noted trainer Pete Bommarito. MJD is working his way back from a Lisfranc injury. Bradley is fine with the move because he and Jones-Drew are on the same page with where the running back is at, according to the Florida Times-Union. Bradley especially wanted Jones-Drew in camp while the team installed the offense. "It’s going to take some time and it should come back," Bradley said of Jones-Drew's injured foot. "We're just taking the next step in the rehab process."

Analysis: Expectations remain MJD will be ready for the start of training camp in July and potentially be on the field for a June minicamp. Fantasy owners need to see him before drafting to have some level of confidence in his game. The injury he suffered is a tough one to come back from. On the plus side, Jones-Drew had at least 1,600 total yards in each of his previous three seasons before 2012 when he held out of training camp and ultimately got hurt after six games. Some will be afraid to draft the 28-year-old but most owners should go ahead and consider Jones-Drew a Top 15 running back for now, making him worth a pick between 20th and 30th overall in drafts assuming he is a full participant in Jags camp. That seems to be on pace to happen.

Uninfected Gronk has surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
8:51 AM

News: Rob Gronkowski had successful surgery on his left forearm Monday and doctors found no infection inside according to multiple reports. He had a new plate installed in his arm to keep things in place inside his forearm and should be done having surgery there. A consultation on his back is expected within the next three to four weeks with surgery to potentially follow.

Analysis: Great news! Unless there's a setback with the arm or a serious issue with his back Gronkowski should be ready for the start of training camp. That makes him a safer pick in Fantasy Football since he'll have the time to get ready for the season and potentially play 16 games. We're not out of the woods yet but be ready to consider Gronk with a Top 20 pick in drafts this summer.

Romo out until minicamp
Tony Romo, QB, DAL
8:37 AM

News: The Dallas Morning News reports Tony Romo had a cyst removed from his back and will be out until at least Cowboys minicamp in June. He should be fine for training camp. "If this was the regular season and I had to play next week, I could," Romo said. "This is just about being smart. That’s why I did it now. This will have no effect on training camp. No way will it have an impact. And I still think there’s a good chance I’m on the field for minicamp."

Analysis: Romo isn't a quarterback anyone is targeting on Draft Day, he's more like a passer you'll settle for starting in Round 6. There's nothing wrong with that: Romo was one of 10 quarterbacks to average over 20 Fantasy points per game (in standard formats) and has consistently put up big numbers, albeit not amazing numbers. Fantasy owners can win with Romo as their starter.

Giants remain confident with Cruz
Victor Cruz, WR, NYG
1:51 PM

News: USA Today reports that Giants chairman Steve Tisch remains confident a deal with receiver Victor Cruz is coming soon. "We're talking. (Cruz's agent) Tom Condon is talking to (Giants general manager) Jerry (Reese) and I'm personally confident that Victor wants to be a Giant, will be a Giant," Tisch said. "He's a great guy. It's just taking its time." The report says Cruz and the Giants have made some progress but a deal isn't imminent, despite a report from the New York Post stating the sides were at the "2-yard line." At this point, it seems they're barely in the red zone, but things could change as the spring winds down. Cruz has yet to sign the tender he was extended as a restricted free agent that would pay him $2.879 million. The Giants could lower the rate to $630,000 if Cruz hasn't signed by June 17, but that might only strain the negotiations.

Analysis: We hope that Cruz is signed prior to training camp because we don't want to see a potential holdout. Continue to monitor what develops, and if Cruz signs on time then he would remain a high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick as early as Round 4. If he ends up holding out then his value will decline.

Johnson back on field
Steve Johnson, WR, BUF
1:42 PM

News: The official team website reports that for the first time in voluntary offseason workouts, Bills receiver Stevie Johnson was on the field Tuesday doing individual drills. He had been forced to watch previous practices because of a lower back injury. Johnson doesn't know if he'll be back on the field in the coming days. "(Tuesday) was random,” said Johnson. "I wasn't even supposed to do what I did and I ended up getting through it. So we’ll see. I’ll just play it by ear and continue working on it and we’ll see what happens for the rest of the week and minicamp."

Analysis: Any steps Johnson can take to be ready for the summer are good news to Fantasy owners. Johnson looks like a solid No. 3 Fantasy receiver with upside. He has at least 76 catches, 1,004 yards and six touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. Johnson has the potential to be around 90 catches, 1,200 yards receiving and double digits in touchdowns, and moving around on offense -- he could play in the slot -- should help his cause. He is worth drafting with a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Hagg sent packing by Browns
Eric Hagg, DB, CLE
2:52 PM

News: The Browns have waived safety Eric Hagg.

Analysis: A year ago Hagg was competing for a starting job, today he's on the street. He shouldn't be a part of Fantasy rosters.

Thompson the Ravens' No. 2 WR?
Deonte Thompson, WR, BAL
11:50 AM

News: The Baltimore Sun's reading of the tea leaves suggests second-year receiver Deonte Thompson has the inside track to earning the No. 2 receiver role with the Ravens. Thompson's a speedster with good hands and with Torrey Smith would give the Ravens a pair of deep-ball threats. "[Thompson] could sneak in there, he looks different, is fast and catches everything," Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said. "But the other guys like (Tandon) Doss and (David) Reed have done well and worked hard during the offseason. As I've always said, the best player will play."

Analysis: Thompson caught just five passes for 51 yards last season but has run below 4.3 seconds in the 40-yard dash. And at 6-foot and 203 pounds he's not exactly a twig. The former Florida Gator will compete for playing time this summer and is someone to watch out for in training camp.

Seahawks waive QB Portis
Josh Portis, QB, SEA
1:01 PM

News: The Seahawks have waived quarterback Josh Portis, who was arrested on suspicion of DUI recently.

Analysis: Portis was never a contender to see playing time this season anyway. Keep him off of rosters.

Wilson ahead of 2012 pace
Russell Wilson, QB, SEA
11:27 AM

News: Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Monday that quarterback Russell Wilson was "a million miles ahead of where we were." But there's more to it than that: Wilson has put on six pounds of muscle to his lower body to handle the wear and tear of the football season. He also is taking first-team reps this spring instead of third-team reps, which is where he was as late as last August. Wilson also said a passing camp he held with teammates in L.A. helped him get a head start on offseason training. As such, the offense flowed rather smoothly in OTA workouts Monday. "I thought we did great," Wilson said. "There were a couple of miscues here and there, but I thought we were pretty sharp. Compared to where we were last year, compared to where we were last week, I think we’re miles and miles ahead."

Analysis: Wilson arguably had the most surprising season of anyone last year, completing 64.1 pct. of his passes for 3,118 yards and 26 touchdowns and adding 489 yards on the ground with four touchdowns. He also had two-plus touchdowns in nine of his last 11 games including the postseason. Those numbers are awesome but they all came without Percy Harvin on the roster. He'll help push Wilson's numbers even higher. There's nothing wrong with targeting Wilson with a pick starting in Round 5, which is where he went in our most recent mock draft. Once Cam Newton goes off the board, expect Wilson to follow within the next 20 selections.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings