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2012 Fantasy outlooks: Green Bay Packers

Senior Fantasy Writer
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The Packers would love it if their passing game looked as picture perfect in 2012 as it did this past season. So would Fantasy owners.

Aaron Rodgers led a prolific attack with 4,643 passing yards, 48 touchdowns and just six interceptions -- all in 15 games. He got amazing production from Greg Jennings, who was a Top 20 Fantasy receiver despite missing three games with a knee sprain, and Jordy Nelson, who had a breakout campaign with 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns, which made him the No. 2 Fantasy receiver behind Calvin Johnson.

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Jermichael Finley and James Jones were solid complementary options, and even Donald Driver danced his way to six touchdowns. If the Packers can repeat their passing prowess from a year ago then Fantasy owners should be giddy, but we'd like to see a few changes.

Rodgers remains the No. 1 quarterback in all Fantasy leagues, and he should be drafted in Round 1. He will likely come off the board by No. 4 or 5 overall in the majority of standard formats.

Jennings will likely be the next Packers player drafted, and he's a potential Top 5 Fantasy receiver. He's worth drafting toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3. Nelson should return as a Top 10 Fantasy receiver, and he has reached double digits in Fantasy points in 13 of his past 22 games, including the postseason. Anyone concerned about Nelson being a one-hit wonder should forget that idea, and he is worth drafting in Round 3.

Finley remains a No. 1 Fantasy tight end, but I'm concerned about his production falling off. Still, he's worth drafting in Round 6 after the elite tight ends come off the board like Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Vernon Davis. More on him later.

The Packers will still go with James Jones, who is worth a late-round pick in deep Fantasy leagues, and Donald Driver as the No. 3 and 4 receivers, respectively, but we'd like to see more of Randall Cobb. He could be a sleeper this year if he gets more playing time on offense. Cobb had just 25 catches for 375 yards and one touchdown last year.

We'd also like to see the Packers run the ball with more efficiency, but that will depend on how much James Starks, Alex Green and Brandon Saine touch the ball. The one thing we know is the Packers can throw the ball at will, and watching Rodgers work is a thing of beauty.

Fantasy Value Chart
Player Draft Day value Estimated round
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers 1
Running Backs
James Starks 8
Alex Green ND
Brandon Saine ND
John Kuhn ND
Wide Receivers
Greg Jennings 2
Jordy Nelson 3
James Jones ND
Donald Driver ND
Randall Cobb ND
Tight Ends
Jermichael Finley 6
Kickers/Defense
Mason Crosby 14
Packers DST 13
ND - not expected to get drafted

Sleeper ... Alex Green, running back
The Packers made a surprising move this offseason by not signing or drafting a running back, and Ryan Grant is not expected to return. That leaves Starks, Green and Saine as the Top 3 options in the backfield -- with fullback John Kuhn to vulture some touchdowns. Starks is the only running back worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but we watched him struggle in 2011 when he had the chance for an increased role. He could improve this season, but he can't be considered a starting option. He is worth a mid-round pick at best. Green is coming off a torn ACL suffered in October and could be limited to start the year, potentially going on the PUP list. And Saine is really just there to provide depth, but he is someone to monitor once the season starts. If Starks struggles again, our guess is Green could have the most upside in this backfield. He might turn into a valuable addition off the waiver wire during the year.

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Late-round flier ... Randall Cobb, wide receiver
Cobb would be a great No. 3 receiver on most teams, but he's buried on the depth chart for the Packers. Not only is he behind Jennings and Nelson, but Jones and Driver will get plenty of playing time ahead of Cobb. That's too bad because we'd love to see what he could do with more targets (he had just 31 last year). He finished his rookie season in 2011 with minimal offensive production but proved valuable on special teams with punt and kickoff return touchdowns. He will continue to thrive in that role, but we hope the Packers find a way to get him more passes. He's not going to be a starting Fantasy option in most standard leagues, but owners in deeper formats could take a look at him with a late-round pick. If his playing time increases then his value will rise because he's talented enough to be a regular contributor on most rosters.

Bust ... Jermichael Finley, tight end
Finley was the No. 5 tight end in standard leagues last year, but his production was extremely inconsistent. He had just four games with double digits in Fantasy points and had three points or less in five games. The good thing about Finley was he played 16 games for the first time in his career and is motivated to play with more consistency this season. The bad news is he got a two-year contract extension, and this could just be the type of tight end he is. The talent is there, and he plays in a dynamic offense with an elite quarterback. But Rodgers spreads the ball around, and Finley may never reach the same heights of Gronkowski or Graham. He should continue to be drafted as a No. 1 option with a pick in Round 6, but don't reach for him thinking his production will continue to rise. Most likely he will have another year of around 55 catches for 750 yards and eight touchdowns, which makes him good, just not great.

Schedule breakdown

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
SF CHI @SEA NO @IND @HOU @STL JAC ARI bye @DET @NYG MIN DET @CHI TEN @MIN
How's this for a curveball: The Packers play five dome games, the most of any non-dome team. That's a nice perk for a team looking to exploit defenses with deep-speed receivers. They open with some tough matchups followed by a three-game road trip. It stinks that one of their bi-annual matchups against the Vikings comes in Week 17. Not much to fear here, and their Week 2 Thursday game means they get their short week out of the way early on.

Training camp topics

The Packers don't have many questions on offense aside from the health of Green, whether or not he can push Starks for the starting job and how the reserve receivers shake out with playing time. If there is a camp battle to watch it's at left tackle with Marshall Newhouse and Derek Sherrod competing for the starting job.

2011 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
James Starks 133 carries, 29 catches
Ryan Grant 134 carries, 19 catches
Jordy Nelson 68 catches
Greg Jennings 67 catches
Jermichael Finley 55 catches

That position is obviously important because the winner will protect Rodgers' blindside, and the Packers also get a new center in Jeff Saturday, which is a great addition. Hopefully we can see the Packers run the ball with a little more success, but we know this offense is designed to pass, pass and pass some more.

On defense, you can expect an emphasis on pass defense since Green Bay struggled to rush the passer (just 29 sacks) and allowed nearly 300 passing yards per game. That will happen at times with teams chasing points, but Green Bay expects more with a unit loaded with talent, including Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews, Tramon Williams and B.J. Raji.

Even though they struggled in 2011, we still consider the Packers DST a No. 1 option this year. They are worth drafting with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Injury update

Green (knee; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Andrew Quarless (knee; questionable for the start of training camp)

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

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Player News
Report: Vikings LB Chad Greenway agres to take paycut
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:59 am ET) Vikings linebacker Chad Greenway has agreed to restructure his contract, reducing his $7 million base salary to $3.4 million, according to Field Yates of ESPN. The move created $3.2 million in cap room for the Vikings.

Greenway, 32, has spent all nine years of his career with the Vikings, recording 992 total tackles, 15.5 sacks, 30 passes defensed, nine interceptions and eight forced fumbles.


Cardinals coach Arians: I was not going to let Logan Thomas fail
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(3/27/2015) Cardinals coach Bruce Arians still believes in young quarterback Logan Thomas. Arians didn't want to ruin his confidence last season after being forced into action with multiple injuries to Arizona quarterbacks, reports the team's website.

"He's going to get a ton of work and those reps are invaluable," Arians said. "Just in decision-making, how fast you're getting it out of your hand, where you're going with it, where you're going when 'one' and 'two' are still covered. Are you still scrambling around or are you going to find your outlets? That growth process comes strictly from reps."

Arians still has a plan for the second-year pro.

"We drafted him for two years from now, not November," Arians said. "It just so happened his number got called (earlier.) I was not going to let him fail (in San Francisco) because once you fail those scars never go away.

"It's very hard to get the guys back in the locker room if you cost them the playoffs. I just wasn't going to put him in that situation. Right or wrong, it just was my decision."


DT Letroy Guion visits with Seahawks
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(3/27/2015) Nose tackle Letroy Guion visited with the Seahawks on Friday, adding another suitor into the mix as the Packers attempt to retain his services, per ESPN.com.

After Guion's criminal case was closed earlier in the week, with Guion paying only a fine, the Seahawks set up a visit. Guion recorded career-highs in tackles (32) and sacks (3 1/2) with the Packers in 2014. 


Panthers claim OT Jonathan Martin off waivers
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(3/27/2015) The Panthers announced Friday they have signed tackle Jonathan Martin off waivers, one day after the lineman was released by the 49ers. 

Martin played in 15 games with San Francisco last season, starting nine of them. Prior to that, he was a member Dolphins before being traded for a conditional seventh-round pick in 2014. The 25-year-old has started 32 of the 38 games he's played in. 

"Jonathan brings quality experience to our offensive line, having started 32 games in his career at both tackle spots," Panthers GM Dave Gettleman said. 


Panthers sign WR Jarrett Boykin to one-year deal
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(3/27/2015) The Panthers signed free agent wide receiver Jarrett Boykin to a one-year deal Friday, per David Newton of ESPN.com. 

The 25-year-old receiver had a big campaign with the Packers in 2013, catching 49 passes for 681 yards, but fell out of favor last season, grabbing just three balls for 23 yards in 13 games. Boykin has 57 career receptions in three seasons, all with the Packers. 


Bears sign CB Alan Ball to one-year deal
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(3/27/2015) The Bears have signed cornerback Alan Ball to a one-year contract on Friday, per the team's official website.

Ball, 29, spent the last two seasons with the Jaguars, but was limited to only seven games in 2014 due to a biceps injury. He racked up 59 total tackles, 17 passes deflected and three interceptions over that span. He has played eight NFL seasons with the Cowboys, Texans and Jags.


Titans sign CB Brandon Harris to one-year deal
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(3/27/2015) The Titans have signed cornerback Brandon Harris to a one-year contract on Friday, per the team's official website. Harris played 11 games in 2014, his first season with the Titans. He finished with 11 combined tackles and three pass deflections last season.

Redskins' Thompson, Redd to compete for third-down back role
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(3/27/2015) Redskins coach Jay Gruden said this week at the NFL owners' meetings running back Chris Thompson will get the first chance to secure third-down responsibilities, according to The Washington Post. Silas Redd will also get consideration for the role of third-down back.

“Chris [Thompson] came in last year at the end and did some things, and we’re hoping that he can come back and stay healthy in the offseason and give us a little jolt back there,” Gruden said. “And Silas Redd will get every chance to do some things also.”

Although, the Redskins could look to bring in some competition before training camp begins.

“I also think that at the running back position in the draft, there’s a ton of them,” Gruden said. “It’s a very deep running back draft in my opinion, and we’re excited to add another piece at some point, hopefully. We have seven picks. Hopefully one of them will be a running back, or a free agent to compete. There are some good free agents that haven’t been signed yet. But, giving Chris an opportunity, Silas, Alfred (Morris), that’s where it starts. And we’ll add some more later on for competition.”


Falcons could bring in Matt Schaub to vie for backup QB role
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(3/27/2015) Falcons coach Dan Quinn is not ruling out bringing back former Atlanta quarterback Matt Schaub to compete for the backup role behind starter Matt Ryan, per ESPN.

"Schaub is certainly somebody that we could [add]," Quinn said. "As we get through it, we'll let you know if we go down that road."

The 34-year-old Schaub was released by the Raiders in mid-March. T.J. Yates and Sean Renfree are the other quarterbacks on the Falcons' roster.


Panthers' Rivera expecting Stephen Hill to contribute in 2015
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(3/27/2015) Panthers coach Ron Rivera believes wide receiver Stephen Hill is ready to make an impact in 2015 after spending the 2014 season on the practice squad, per ESPN.

“Very much so," Rivera said Wednesday during the NFL owners meeting in Phoenix. “He’s a guy we feel has an opportunity. We’re very excited about [seeing] Stephen during OTAs and minicamp.

“With his size (6-4, 215) and speed and his ability to get vertical, if he can assimilate to what we do -- and I think he will; he seems to be a very smart man -- he might be a guy that has an opportunity to contribute for us."

Rivera felt Hill's year on the practice squad was beneficial after the 2012 second-round pick failed to live up to expectations during his tenure with the Jets. 

“I thought it was a good opportunity to take a step back and take a break," Rivera said. “The thing I liked about Stephen was how he contributed to our football team’s success. He came in. He had been a second-round pick. He had no assumptions, no entitlement.

“He ran all the scout teams for us. He ran them hard. Gave us great looks, which is what makes us excited 'cause you watch a guy perform who could very easily dog it, and he didn’t. And you saw him grow. You saw him make catches. You saw him get comfortable in his own skin again."


 
 
 
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