2012 Fantasy outlooks: New York Giants

Senior Fantasy Writer

July 12, 2012 9:13 AM ET

For a team coming off of an improbable Super Bowl run, the Giants sure are loaded with volatility on offense. Even with steady Eli Manning and his ever-improving production, there are a lot of question marks around Big Blue headed into 2012.

The run game got younger and faster after the team let go of running back Brandon Jacobs and drafted David Wilson out of Virginia Tech. But without the big-bodied Jacobs to pick up the tough inside yardage, can the Giants continue to succeed in short yardage and goal line situations? And with Ahmad Bradshaw effective but injury prone, can the Giants count on Wilson to do well if he's forced to take on a large workload? Or, will the Giants use more than Bradshaw and Wilson, utilizing bench players like D.J. Ware and Da'Rel Scott?

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It doesn't get easier at wide receiver, where Hakeem Nicks suffered a fractured foot running a route during an offseason drill, costing him offseason practice time and potentially part of his training camp and preseason. Not only must Fantasy owners worry about what kind of shape he'll be in for the start of the season, but the injury is a stark reminder of his history of getting hurt. Whether Nicks is ready or not, there's a big spotlight on Victor Cruz and whether or not he can be a strong contributor again. Adding to the mayhem at receiver is the addition or Rueben Randle, the team's second-round pick. At first it was believed he'd fill in for the departed Mario Manningham, who like Jacobs left for greener pastures in San Francisco. But Randle might have to step up if Nicks is unavailable or if Cruz is double-covered play after play.

The tight end crop is an even bigger blur: The only healthy returning option left after last season is Bear Pascoe; the Giants added Martellus Bennett via free agency and Adrien Robinson via the draft but the unit as a whole is unproven. Jake Ballard, who tore his ACL in Super Bowl XLVI, was placed on waivers and claimed by the Patriots.

At least the Giants have Manning, who has not only been stable for the Giants offense but also a guy whose numbers have improved year after year. Manning posted career-highs in pass completions, passing yards, yards per attempt and completions of 20- and 40-plus yards last season, falling just shy of 5,000 yards. He also toned down his turnovers from a year earlier and won that second Super Bowl ring. So while there's tumult across the board for the Giants' other skill-position players, at least they can count on Manning to stand tall.

Fantasy Value Chart
Player	Draft Day value	Estimated round
Quarterbacks
Eli Manning		4
Running Backs
Ahmad Bradshaw		2
David Wilson		11
Wide Receivers
Hakeem Nicks		3
Victor Cruz		3
Rueben Randle		13
Tight Ends
Martellus Bennett		ND
Kickers/Defense
Lawrence Tynes		14
Giants DST		13
ND - not expected to get drafted

Impact rookie ... Rueben Randle, wide receiver
Opportunity should knock for Randle early on in training camp. With Nicks banged up and fellow backup Giants receivers like Ramses Barden and Domenik Hixon unable to make a dent when given a chance previously, the big rookie out of Louisiana State should find a way to contribute right away. Randle has good size (6-foot-3 and 210 pounds) and a solid track record coming out of school that lacked a capable passer (53 catches this past season for 917 yards and eight touchdowns). Manning and the Giants have always been at their best when they have a dangerous three-receiver set. When Nicks heals, Randle should be that third man to drive defenses crazy. And even if Nicks isn't healed, Randle could be in line to replace him and put up decent totals in his place.

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Keeper-league target ... David Wilson, running back
Wilson could get fast-tracked to the field like Randle, but his impact might not be as huge. For starters, he's clearly the backup to Bradshaw, who will enter camp as healthy as he's been in years thanks to some clean-up work on his foot this offseason. And even when Bradshaw's been hurt, he's never missed more than four games. Bradshaw will make way for Wilson from time to time, but other backs like Ware and Scott will also vie for some snaps throughout the season. Moreover, Wilson won't replace Jacobs in the least; Wilson is more of a speedy outside runner. So the goal-line reps that might have gone to Jacobs in the past will probably head toward Bradshaw. Look for Wilson's impact in the future, not in 2012.

Don't reach ... Victor Cruz, wide receiver
Perhaps the most "fun" part of watching Cruz last season was his knack for making big plays and beating defenses deep. But as the Giants went into the postseason, Cruz's production diminished. After totaling 82 catches for 1,536 yards (18.7 avg.) and nine touchdowns over 15 games (that's slightly over 100 yards per game on average), Cruz cooled as postseason opponents did more to take him out of being a gamebreaker. He had 21 catches for 269 yards (12.8 avg.) and one touchdown through four games (less than 70 yards per game). Most people believe Cruz will take a step back in receptions and receiving yards this season but not completely fall off the map, especially in a contract year. When you consider drafting him, make sure you're not leaving a reliable receiver on the board.

Schedule breakdown

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
DAL	TB	@CAR	@PHI	CLE	@SF	WAS	@DAL	PIT	@CIN	bye	GB	@WAS	NO	@ATL	@BAL	PHI

New York should get off to a very good start and potentially be 4-1 before a rematch at San Francisco. They also should be involved in a lot of high scoring games down the stretch. Playing at Baltimore in Week 16 is gross but a Week 11 bye week helps. It's not an easy schedule, but rematches with three non-division opponents from last season help.

Training camp topics

2011 Touches Leaders
Player	Touches
Ahmad Bradshaw	234 carries, 50 catches
Brandon Jacobs	189 carries, 19 catches
Victor Cruz	103 catches, 1 carry
Hakeem Nicks	104 catches
D.J. Ware	50 carries, 29 catches

Obviously the health of Nicks will be at the forefront of all things at Giants camp. The sooner he can get back on the field and renew his rhythm with Manning, the better. Nicks should be on pace to be ready for the start of the season but it's always better if a player spends time ramping up for the season by practicing in camp and playing in the preseason. We'd like to see him back on the field by Friday, August 17, a week before the team's third preseason game and just over two weeks before their season opener against the Cowboys. That should give him enough time to get into game shape.

In the meantime, expect the Giants to spend a chunk of camp working on finding ways to get Cruz open without Nicks taking some coverage away. Bunch formations and putting Cruz in motion before the snap could be in our future. The Giants will also experiment with Randle, Barden and Hixon, seeing just how much they can take on with Nicks out. Randle has the most potential of the three and it isn't even close.

The Giants also have an interesting situation at tight end. Bennett was an early offseason sleeper until it was disclosed that he weighed in at 291 pounds (good weight, but the kind of weight for a blocking tight end and not a receiving threat). Many will keep an eye on Adrien Robinson, the Giants' rookie tight end out of Cincinnati. The former hoopster has lots of potential but needs a great camp to make an impact this season. At 6-foot-5 and 267 pounds, many think he could develop into a poor man's Jimmy Graham someday.

There might be some questions about how the Giants' linebackers will shake out or whether or not Prince Amukamara will be able to handle the load at nickelback, but all of those issues aren't as serious because of the incredible depth along the Giants' defensive line. The unit -- led by pass rushers Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul -- is literally the straw that stirs the defensive drink in New York. Their work along with Jerrel Jernigan improving as a returner in his second season should make the Giants DST worth a pick in drafts.

Injury update

Hakeem Nicks (foot; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Ahmad Bradshaw (foot; probable for the start of training camp) ... Domenik Hixon (knee; probable for the start of training camp) ... Justin Tuck (shoulder; probable for the start of training camp) ... Terrell Thomas (knee; questionable for the start of training camp).

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Starting job Wilson's to lose?
David Wilson, RB, NYG
5/20/2013

News: The Giants' official team website reports the starting running back job will be won in training camp and the preseason but that David Wilson is expected to earn it. "The general feeling is the job is Wilson’s to lose," wrote website writer and veteran Giants reporter Michael Eisen. The story adds Andre Brown is "in the mix" at running back.

Analysis: The speedster has immense upside in the Giants offense even though there will be weeks where Andre Brown will have more work and certainly scores more often. But if you give Wilson about 250 total touches over the season, which is feasible, then he'll have a chance at 1,200-plus total yards with his own share of scores. We consider Wilson a No. 2 Fantasy running back with upside. He's worth drafting as early as Round 4 so long as he's "in the mix" in training camp.

Knee flares up on LeSean
LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI
5/20/2013

News: Eagles running back LeSean McCoy was pulled from an OTA practice Monday with knee discomfort according to PhillyMag.com. He was on a sideline late in practice working on his own and getting stretched out by trainers. Per the Philadelphia Inquirer McCoy looked fine and said he "did something to his knee."

Analysis: It doesn't sound too serious. So long as McCoy is healthy and active for training camp there's nothing to be worried about. McCoy is expected to see a ton of work in the Eagles offense under new coach Chip Kelly. He has potential for a very good year, making him a Top 15 pick in all formats. Pairing him with Bryce Brown in Round 9 is a very smart idea.

Peyton: We're counting on Hillman
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN
5/20/2013

News: With Willis McGahee not in attendance and Knowshon Moreno not cleared for team drills, Ronnie Hillman and rookie Montee Ball split reps at the Broncos' OTA practice on Monday. USA Today reports Hillman had more first-team reps. Quarterback Peyton Manning has high expectations for Hillman. “Everybody in Year 2 ought to be better than they were in Year 1," Manning said. "Ronnie got great experience last year as a rookie. We’re really counting on him this year to have more of a role in the offense. ... It’s not just kind of a limited package like we did last year. We are really expecting him to make that next-level jump. It starts during these OTAs and training camp and being more of an established veteran running back. To me, after your rookie year, you are a veteran in my opinion. Second year, third year, fourth year—it doesn’t matter. A lot of the expectations out of Ronnie, and we’re counting on him to do good things for us this year.”

Analysis: You wouldn't expect a John Fox-coached team to give a rookie running back the majority of carries in a spring practice, would you? Ball is going to have to earn the primary rushing role, but it's a role he could get after the Broncos invested a second-round pick in him. Hillman has been referred to as a "change of pace" runner and he struggled last season to get first-team work (Knowshon Moreno leapfrogged him). The more work these two get now, the better they'll be in September. Ball will be found in Round 5 in drafts while Hillman is going to go later, roughly Round 10. Those estimates could change if the Broncos move on from McGahee and/or Moreno.

Doctors confident in Gronk
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
5/20/2013

News: ESPN reports that Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is scheduled to undergo the fourth surgery on his left forearm on Monday, should be OK. The report says doctors feel confident that the infection has been eradicated, but they won't know for sure until they take tests during the procedure and then examine those over the next week. A new plate is expected to replace the one already in his arm and he will begin a new 10-11 week recovery period.

Analysis: We're glad to hear that Gronkowski should be OK after the forearm surgery, but he still has to deal with the upcoming procedure on his back, which should take place in 3-4 weeks. The goal is get Gronkowski back on the field for training camp, but he might not be ready until just before the start of the season. If Gronkowski is 100 percent with all his ailments then he has the chance to remain the No. 1 tight end in Fantasy with a pick in Round 2. But based on his health in May, he is dropping down the rank lists to more of a Top 5 Fantasy tight end. He's still worth drafting by Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, but his value has taken a hit with another forearm surgery and the potential back problem. Stay tuned, and hopefully we get more good news as the offseason moves on.

RG3 begins throwing
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
5/20/2013

News: The father for Robert Griffin III told USA Today his son has been throwing a football since late April. That suggests he's ahead of schedule and could be ready to play in Week 1 against the Eagles on Sept. 9. RG3 posted on Twitter he had been doing "a couple of roll out throws," meaning he's running and throwing at the same time. "Everybody in the organization is targeting that season opener," Robert Griffin II said.

Analysis: The father added that RG3 is a little ahead of himself in his rehab compared to when he tore his right ACL in college, another good sign. Griffin tore up his knee on January 6 and the typical recovery from just an ACL procedure is nine months. His knee was damaged beyond that -- he also injured his MCL and PCL. Training camp opens on July 25, less than seven months after he got hurt. The Redskins' first game takes place September 9, eight months and three days after he got hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back so soon. A Fantasy gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Gillislee has chance to start
Mike Gillislee, RB, MIA
5/20/2013

News: The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports that Dolphins rookie Mike Gillislee, who ran for 1,152 yards and 10 touchdowns in his senior season at Florida, will compete with Lamar Miller, a 2012 fourth-round pick, and Daniel Thomas, a 2011 second-round pick, for the starting tailback spot during training camp this summer. Gillislee was drafted in the fifth round this year.

Analysis: We'd be shocked if Gillislee was the starting running back this season, but he doesn't have to leap frog proven veterans. Miller is unproven after barely playing as a rookie, and Thomas has struggled in two years. Still, Miller is expected to start, and Gillislee has the chance to beat out Thomas for the No. 2 job. Keep an eye on what happens, and unless Gillislee somehow ascends to the top of the depth chart he is only worth drafting with a late-round flier in standard leagues. In rookie-only formats take a chance on Gillislee with a second-round pick.

Vick: New offense is 'a lot easier'
Michael Vick, QB, PHI
5/20/2013

News: In an interview with 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia, Michael Vick said his critics "know nothing about football" and preferred not to address issues about his play up to this point. That's because he's excited about the future, mainly working in Chip Kelly's new up-tempo no-huddle offense. Vick's working on ball security with Kelly, just one of several areas he has to clean up in order to efficiently play, which he's excited to do. "We had a lot of deeper throws last year, which required more time," Vick said. "It's just a big difference. Not to say there was anything wrong with the West Coast system, I loved it. I spent seven years in it, and it was cool. But I think the change of pace for me at this point in my career is good and the game is a lot easier now."

Analysis: If Vick likes the new offense and thinks it's easier to run, that can only mean good things for his statistics. There's still a camp battle to be had with Nick Foles and rookie Matt Barkley but we expect Vick to get the job. How long he has it is another question since he has a propensity for getting hurt. Vick is one of the appealing No. 2 Fantasy QBs to draft with a mid-round pick this summer, particularly to pair up with a starter you end up waiting for on Draft Day.

Woods impressive at OTAs
Robert Woods, WR, BUF
5/20/2013

News: The Bills official team website singled out rookie Robert Woods for his performance in practice Monday. In his first workout with the team Woods still had some timing issues with the quarterbacks but proved his route running is not amateurish. "I was really impressed with was a move that a lot of young guys make a mistake on and he didn't make it," Kevin Kolb said. "He beat the guy off the line and he continued to run his route and continued to push and was patient with it. He understood the timing of the offense and my footwork and we were able to hit a big play and keep the integrity of the pocket. That was good to see and I complemented him on it. A lot of young guys don’t do that. He’s somewhat complex in his route running ability."

Analysis: With the Bills thin on experienced receiver talent, Woods has a chance to crack the starting lineup if he can develop some serious chemistry with E.J. Manuel. Woods was a productive receiver at USC and could be fairly effective in Buffalo. For now no one should draft him in seasonal leagues but a second-round pick in rookie-only drafts and a late-round choice in dynasty/keeper leagues.

Cushing 'definitely' will be ready
Brian Cushing, LB, HOU
5/20/2013

News: Texans linebacker Brian Cushing told his team's official website he'll be ready for the start of the season. Cushing tore his left ACL last October. "My return is right around the corner, so that’s a good feeling," Cushing said on Monday. "I can definitely tell you I'll be ready for the first game of the season, and I’m pretty sure I’ll be ready for the first practice come training camp."

Analysis: Without Cushing the Texans' run defense took a step back and the defense in general yielded more points than with him. Fantasy owners also missed Cushing and his nice weekly delivery of stats. Assuming there are no setbacks owners should consider him a Top 15 Fantasy LB worth a mid-round pick.

Posey 'ahead of schedule'
DeVier Posey, WR, HOU
5/20/2013

News: Texans coach Gary Kubiak said receiver DeVier Posey is "ahead of schedule" on his rehab from a torn Achilles tendon suffered in a January playoff game. Posey did not participate in OTA practices.

Analysis: Posey could still land on the PUP list for part or all of the 2013 season. With the addition of rookie DeAndre Hopkins there's no good reason to consider Posey for reliable Fantasy use at this point.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings