2012 Draft Prep: Strategies for seventh overall

Senior Fantasy Writer

July 27, 2012 2:06 PM ET

The dilemma most Fantasy owners will have going into their drafts is magnified for those picking seventh overall: When to take a quarterback.

Here's the issue: There's virtually no chance one of the top three or four running backs will make it to you in Round 1, but it's a cinch that at least one (if not all three) stud quarterbacks will be available. If you take one, you punt on finding a quarterback at a good price later in the draft. If you don't take one, you'll end up with a player at another position who isn't quite the lock to put up major Fantasy points every week like the quarterbacks offer.

Pick-by-pick strategies
Our Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard share a unique draft strategy for each position in a standard 12-team draft.
No. 1 overall	No. 5 overall	No. 9 overall
No. 2 overall	No. 6 overall	No. 10 overall
No. 3 overall	No. 7 overall	No. 11 overall
No. 4 overall	No. 8 overall	No. 12 overall

We're talking about Ryan Mathews, Chris Johnson and Calvin Johnson as possible alternatives for Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Anyone can make the case to take or not take any of these guys, and that's the problem. Because there's no certainty to how they'll get picked, it will really come down to personal preference.

The uncertainty also goes into the second-round pick: Unless you're in a tiny league with eight owners, there's a likely chance none of these options will be around when you're up again.

You can either go for the quarterback bargain later and roll the dice that one of the three non-passers plays out of his mind, or take the safe route with the quarterback and begin hunting for running backs and receivers for the rest of your draft.

The good news? There's no wrong answer.

Editor's note: The percentages listed are what position you should target based on that round for each pick.

Round 1
Standard	QB	55%	RB	40%	WR	5%	TE	0%
PPR	QB	0%	RB	65%	WR	35%	TE	0%

League format will play a huge role in who I take first overall. If receptions count, running backs and receivers are too valuable to pass up, and most of the other owners will agree. Quarterbacks will slide. In fact, in 10-team PPR leagues it's a mortal lock that I get a Top 4 quarterback in Round 2. So I'll roll the dice on finding a passer later in any PPR format. In standard-scoring leagues, I'm not messing around. I recognize that quarterbacks will be around later and that the running back pool I'll pick from won't be quite as rich as it is here. I don't care. Locking into a stud quarterback who should post 20 points per week minimum (the Top 3 quarterbacks last year failed to score that much seven times combined; Rodgers had at least 20 points in every game he started) will go a long way in helping my team rally to wins. Plus there won't be a need to draft a second quarterback since I'd never start him -- that roster spot can go toward an extra sleeper later on. Knowing there are tons of receiver bargains to come and just enough running backs to go around, I don't mind taking a quarterback first if one of the top four rushers isn't there.

Players you can get here: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ryan Mathews, Chris Johnson, Calvin Johnson
My selection at No. 7 standard: Aaron Rodgers
My selection at No. 7 PPR: Maurice Jones-Drew

Round 2
Standard	QB	15%	RB	40%	WR	40%	TE	5%
PPR	QB	20%	RB	25%	WR	25%	TE	30%

The pick here totally depends on what happened in Round 1: If I took a quarterback, I'm aiming for a Top 12 running back or an elite receiver. If I took a running back or receiver, I'm open to anything but I might lean toward a quarterback in standard formats or a tight end in PPR formats. A rule: If there isn't a Top 12 running back left when you're up, don't reach for one. There will be comparable talent at running back when you're up in Round 3, particularly because the owners behind you will suck up the receivers and tight ends with their next picks. I wouldn't hesitate to take a Top-3 receiver even if I took a quarterback first if there wasn't a running back I liked.

Players you can get here: Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Graham
My selection at No. 18 standard: Larry Fitzgerald
My selection at No. 18 PPR: Jimmy Graham

Round 3
Standard	QB	10%	RB	35%	WR	45%	TE	10%
PPR	QB	20%	RB	35%	WR	40%	TE	5%

First thing's first: If you don't have a running back by now, you need to take one here and probably two more with your next three picks. If that's not a problem for you then this is a splendid time to take a top receiver -- unless a great quarterback or tight end falls into your lap. That might happen in a PPR league and is a big reason why you shouldn't take a quarterback in those formats in Round 1 (same can't be said for standard drafts). I got lucky in my drafts but you should bank on a receiver in yours.

Players you can get here: Mike Wallace, Julio Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Ahmad Bradshaw, Adrian Peterson
My selection at No. 31 standard: Ahmad Bradshaw
My selection at No. 31 PPR: Matthew Stafford

Round 4
Standard	QB	15%	RB	30%	WR	50%	TE	5%
PPR	QB	20%	RB	30%	WR	40%	TE	10%

One good reason to take just one receiver with your first three picks is to grab one in Round 4. The wideouts left by now should be considered quality No. 2 options and more appealing than the running backs left over. Even if you took a receiver with your last pick, make it a point to target another here. Perhaps in PPR leagues you might already have two receivers (or one receiver and one tight end) and could roll with a quarterback here. That also wouldn't be a mistake considering the likes of Tony Romo and Michael Vick are highly unlikely to be available on your next pick.

Players you can get here: Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Dez Bryant, Jamaal Charles, Tony Romo
My selection at No. 42 standard: Jeremy Maclin
My selection at No. 42 PPR: Dez Bryant

Round 5
Standard	QB	20%	RB	40%	WR	30%	TE	10%
PPR	QB	20%	RB	40%	WR	30%	TE	10%

The last of the serviceable running backs will fly off the board and it's never a bad idea to have too many running backs -- particularly if you've only drafted one thus far. This year there's no problem going thin on running backs with your early picks so long as you're prepared to spend your mid-round choices on what's left. This is also good territory to start considering quarterbacks and tight ends again.

Players you can get here: Frank Gore, Beanie Wells, Eli Manning, Jason Witten, DeSean Jackson
My selection at No. 55 standard: Frank Gore
My selection at No. 55 PPR: Frank Gore

Round 6
Standard	QB	30%	RB	30%	WR	25%	TE	15%
PPR	QB	25%	RB	30%	WR	30%	TE	15%

With five picks in the books it's time for a roster check. If you haven't taken a quarterback, now is a good time to find your starter at a quality value. If you haven't taken a tight end and a Top-5 option is out there, make it happen. Otherwise the focus should be on bolstering your roster with whatever you need between a running back and a receiver. A good No. 3 running back or low-end No. 2 receiver is worth taking here. Do it now because the expectations for what's left when you're up in Round 7 aren't very promising.

Players you can get here: Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Donald Brown, Stevan Ridley, Kenny Britt
My selection at No. 66 standard: Stevan Ridley
My selection at No. 66 PPR: Kenny Britt

Round 7
Standard	QB	20%	RB	25%	WR	25%	TE	30%
PPR	QB	25%	RB	30%	WR	20%	TE	25%

By this point you're either looking to fill a hole in your roster or add quality depth. There might be some decent receivers left along with some upshot running backs. If you still need a flex or third running back, make one a priority here as the pickings will be slim by your next pick. And if you're looking at quarterbacks, see if any of the owners at Picks 8 through 12 need one. If they do and there's either a great value or a potential starter for your team there, you should pounce.

Players you can get here: Jermichael Finley, Peyton Manning, Mikel Leshoure, Anquan Boldin, James Starks
My selection at No. 79 standard: Jermichael Finley
My selection at No. 79 PPR: Mikel Leshoure

Round 8
Standard	QB	20%	RB	40%	WR	20%	TE	20%
PPR	QB	20%	RB	35%	WR	25%	TE	20%

Aside from a potential need pick, you should focus on adding quality depth with the best available player. Take a long look at the running backs -- most of the ones left are legit backups but they're not bad compared to what's left in a round or two. If you value running back depth, build some. In PPR formats you should be able to pick up a receiver with some modest potential but that position won't dwindle like the running backs will. Finally, consider this pick the absolute last call for a quarterback -- you probably will not see a Top-12 choice available in Round 9.

Players you can get here: Michael Bush, Pierre Garcon, Toby Gerhart, Denarius Moore, Matt Ryan
My selection at No. 90 standard: Michael Bush
My selection at No. 90 PPR: Pierre Garcon

Round 9
Standard	QB	15%	RB	30%	WR	30%	TE	25%
PPR	QB	20%	RB	25%	WR	30%	TE	25%

Expect owners to start taking shots at sleepers starting in Round 9. Basically anyone with high potential but considerable risk based on health, experience or role will get eyeballed. If you have one in mind and they're available, go for it (one of mine is Patriots rusher Shane Vereen). But even if you don't have a sleeper you could be surprised with what's left. After all, if everyone's taking wild sleeper choices, some established veterans will slide. Tight ends also carry some good value here.

Players you can get here: Shane Vereen, Robert Griffin III, Randy Moss, Brent Celek, Jacob Tamme
My selection at No. 103 standard: Shane Vereen
My selection at No. 103 PPR: Shane Vereen

Round 10
Standard	QB	20%	RB	30%	WR	35%	TE	15%
PPR	QB	20%	RB	30%	WR	35%	TE	15%

If last round was about sleepers, this round is about sleepers and depth. The population of backup passers and pass-catchers won't be too hard to sift through. If a good No. 2 quarterback has made it this far he's worth considering,19638503/ but so are potential 60-catch receivers and start-worthy tight ends.

Players you can get here: Greg Little, Tony Gonzalez, Laurent Robinson, Jay Cutler, Bernard Scott
My selection at No. 114 standard: Greg Little
My selection at No. 114 PPR: Laurent Robinson

Round 11
Standard	QB	15%	RB	30%	WR	35%	TE	20%
PPR	QB	15%	RB	35%	WR	30%	TE	20%

If you're looking for need, I feel sorry for you. But chances are no one will be searching for a starting skill-position player, so just go for the best available player regardless of position. A running back in a regular part-time role might make it here in PPR formats. Some receivers could be left over from last round, too. Just look for someone you could start and expect some production from in a pinch.

Players you can get here: Mark Ingram, Kevin Smith, Laurent Robinson, Nate Washington, Michael Crabtree
My selection at No. 127 standard: Laurent Robinson
My selection at No. 127 PPR: Mark Ingram

Round 12
Standard	QB	25%	RB	20%	WR	25%	TE	25%	K	0%	DST	5%
PPR	QB	25%	RB	20%	WR	25%	TE	25%	K	0%	DST	5%

It might be just a bit too soon to take a DST here unless it's the best one (the 49ers in this case). So follow the rule for Round 11 and go with the best available player. The quarterbacks and tight ends left by now offer some decent value.

Players you can get here: Brandon Pettigrew, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Robert Turbin, Mike Williams
My selection at No. 138 standard: Brandon Pettigrew
My selection at No. 138 PPR: Joe Flacco

Round 13
Standard	QB	0%	RB	0%	WR	0%	TE	0%	K	0%	DST	100%
PPR	QB	0%	RB	0%	WR	0%	TE	0%	K	00%	DST	100%

Most leagues force owners to draft a DST and a kicker. If I'm picking here and the rest of my roster is full, I'm looking for the best available DST before taking the best available kicker. Not much else to the pick. If you need help looking for a DST, don't be afraid to consult their schedules; DSTs with favorable matchups to begin the year never hurt.

Players you can get here: Bears DST, Patriots DST, Jets DST
My selection at No. 151 standard: Bears DST
My selection at No. 151 PPR: Bears DST

Round 14
Standard	QB	0%	RB	0%	WR	0%	TE	0%	K	100%	DST	0%
PPR	QB	0%	RB	0%	WR	0%	TE	0%	K	100%	DST	0%

It's the kicker round (assuming you must draft one). Look for kickers who either post consistent accuracy or play with a high-powered offense. If they have a good Week 1 matchup it's icing on the cake.

Players you can get here: Alex Henery, Dan Bailey, Robbie Gould, Matt Prater
My selection at No. 162 standard: Alex Henery
My selection at No. 162 PPR: Alex Henery

Here is a look at what the teams look like following the draft:

Standard		Point-per-reception
QB	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Matthew Stafford
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Maurice Jones-Drew
RB	Frank Gore	RB	Frank Gore
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Dez Bryant
WR	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Kenny Britt
FLEX	Stevan Ridley	FLEX	Mikel Leshoure
TE	Jermichael Finley	TE	Jimmy Graham
K	Alex Henery	K	Alex Henery
DST	Bears	DST	Bears
BENCH	Michael Bush	BENCH	Pierre Garcon
BENCH	Shane Vereen	BENCH	Shane Vereen
BENCH	Greg Little	BENCH	Laurent Robinson
BENCH	Laurent Robinson	BENCH	Mark Ingram
BENCH	Brandon Pettigrew	BENCH	Joe Flacco

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Jets could cut Goodson
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
11:21 AM

News: ESPN reports that Jets general manager John Idzik has a decision to make on the future of running back Mike Goodson after Friday's arrest on drug and weapon charges. The report says Idzik cut two players arrested recently for possession of marijuana, Claude Davis and Cliff Harris. But that doesn't mean he will take the same approach with Goodson, whose contract includes a $1 million signing bonus. The bonus is divided into payouts, and the report says he has yet to receive the full amount; he has pocketed at least $500,000. If Idzik tries to send a message and decides to cut him before the legal process plays out, it would be harder to recoup the money, according to a source. He'll have a better chance if he waits for the courts (and the league) to rule on the matter.

Analysis: It sounds like Goodson's days with the Jets are numbered, but if the legal process comes down in his favor he could remain with the team. But based on the reports of his arrest and the new regime with the Jets, they could decide to part ways, especially since they still have Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight on the roster. Keep an eye on what develops, but don't plan on drafting Goodson in the majority of leagues.

Doctors confident in Gronk
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
10:42 AM

News: ESPN reports that Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is scheduled to undergo the fourth surgery on his left forearm on Monday, should be OK. The report says doctors feel confident that the infection has been eradicated, but they won't know for sure until they take tests during the procedure and then examine those over the next week. A new plate is expected to replace the one already in his arm and he will begin a new 10-11 week recovery period.

Analysis: We're glad to hear that Gronkowski should be OK after the forearm surgery, but he still has to deal with the upcoming procedure on his back, which should take place in 3-4 weeks. The goal is get Gronkowski back on the field for training camp, but he might not be ready until just before the start of the season. If Gronkowski is 100 percent with all his ailments then he has the chance to remain the No. 1 tight end in Fantasy with a pick in Round 2. But based on his health in May, he is dropping down the rank lists to more of a Top 5 Fantasy tight end. He's still worth drafting by Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, but his value has taken a hit with another forearm surgery and the potential back problem. Stay tuned, and hopefully we get more good news as the offseason moves on.

RG3 begins throwing
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
10:34 AM

News: The father for Robert Griffin III told USA Today his son has been throwing a football since late April. That suggests he's ahead of schedule and could be ready to play in Week 1 against the Eagles on Sept. 9. RG3 posted on Twitter he had been doing "a couple of roll out throws," meaning he's running and throwing at the same time. "Everybody in the organization is targeting that season opener," Robert Griffin II said.

Analysis: The father added that RG3 is a little ahead of himself in his rehab compared to when he tore his right ACL in college, another good sign. Griffin tore up his knee on January 6 and the typical recovery from just an ACL procedure is nine months. His knee was damaged beyond that -- he also injured his MCL and PCL. Training camp opens on July 25, less than seven months after he got hurt. The Redskins' first game takes place September 9, eight months and three days after he got hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back so soon. A Fantasy gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Gillislee has chance to start
Mike Gillislee, RB, MIA
10:25 AM

News: The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports that Dolphins rookie Mike Gillislee, who ran for 1,152 yards and 10 touchdowns in his senior season at Florida, will compete with Lamar Miller, a 2012 fourth-round pick, and Daniel Thomas, a 2011 second-round pick, for the starting tailback spot during training camp this summer. Gillislee was drafted in the fifth round this year.

Analysis: We'd be shocked if Gillislee was the starting running back this season, but he doesn't have to leap frog proven veterans. Miller is unproven after barely playing as a rookie, and Thomas has struggled in two years. Still, Miller is expected to start, and Gillislee has the chance to beat out Thomas for the No. 2 job. Keep an eye on what happens, and unless Gillislee somehow ascends to the top of the depth chart he is only worth drafting with a late-round flier in standard leagues. In rookie-only formats take a chance on Gillislee with a second-round pick.

Vick: New offense is 'a lot easier'
Michael Vick, QB, PHI
9:15 AM

News: In an interview with 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia, Michael Vick said his critics "know nothing about football" and preferred not to address issues about his play up to this point. That's because he's excited about the future, mainly working in Chip Kelly's new up-tempo no-huddle offense. Vick's working on ball security with Kelly, just one of several areas he has to clean up in order to efficiently play, which he's excited to do. "We had a lot of deeper throws last year, which required more time," Vick said. "It's just a big difference. Not to say there was anything wrong with the West Coast system, I loved it. I spent seven years in it, and it was cool. But I think the change of pace for me at this point in my career is good and the game is a lot easier now."

Analysis: If Vick likes the new offense and thinks it's easier to run, that can only mean good things for his statistics. There's still a camp battle to be had with Nick Foles and rookie Matt Barkley but we expect Vick to get the job. How long he has it is another question since he has a propensity for getting hurt. Vick is one of the appealing No. 2 Fantasy QBs to draft with a mid-round pick this summer, particularly to pair up with a starter you end up waiting for on Draft Day.

Schiano: Freeman will compete
Josh Freeman, QB, TB
12:39 PM

News: As much as Bucs coach Greg Schiano says Josh Freeman is the team's starting quarterback, he won't fully commit to him. Schiano told the National Football Post Glennon wouldn't play "unless he was needed or if he wins the job" and followed that up Monday by saying Freeman was his starting quarterback "but I believe in competition." Glennon was once recruited by Schiano while he coached at Rutgers but chose an ACC school over Schiano's Big East school.

Analysis: It's clear that Schiano likes Glennon -- and has for some time. It's also clear that Freeman will have to have a good camp in order to begin the year as the Bucs' starter. What makes Freeman a slight risk in Fantasy is if he gets off to a cold start or struggles mid-season then Schiano could pull him for Glennon without much patience. Freeman has fantastic potential given the offense around him but must be drafted as a No. 2 quarterback with a late-round pick.

McGahee not present at OTAs
Willis McGahee, RB, DEN
12:27 PM

News: The Denver Post reports Broncos running back Willis McGahee is not expected to attend Monday's OTA workout. The voluntary session means he could practice away from the team. McGahee was present for Broncos OTA workouts last year. His agent told the paper that he'll attend. "He's following the same routine he's done his whole career. He'll be there," agent Chafie Fields said. "He's ready to compete. No messages."

Analysis: McGahee is assumed to be headed toward a limited role in Denver with rookie Montee Ball added in the draft. Broncos exec John Elway referred to McGahee as "that big back for us right now" about a month ago. Landing a lot of carries will be a challenge for him as he not only deals with a younger back who could supplant him but also coming back from a broken leg and torn MCL. While Ball is drawing plenty of attention in Fantasy, McGahee has turned into a late-round depth-filler with very limited potential.

Moreno to fight for job
Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
11:56 AM

News: The Denver Post reports Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno should be ready for offseason workouts this week after suffering a knee injury in the playoff loss to Baltimore. Moreno could be fighting for his roster spot with Willis McGahee after the Broncos drafted Montee Ball. The report says "there isn't much doubt" the Broncos want Ball and Ronnie Hillman be their 1-2 running punch.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Moreno and McGahee heading into training camp, and hopefully the Broncos make it easier on owners to know who will make the final team. If Moreno is still with Denver once the season starts we expect him to provide a veteran presence behind Ball and Hillman but get little work. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Bush in line for big year
Reggie Bush, RB, DET
11:40 AM

News: According to mlive.com, Reggie Bush could be in line for a breakout season. The report says Bush was a solid contributor in Miami, but Detroit's offense is built for his skill set. Bush will play in an offense similar to the one he excelled in during his standout years in New Orleans. He also will not have to worry about competing for playing time, which occurred during the end of his career with the Saints. The report ends with this line: "Detroit has so many weapons, Bush will rarely see stacked boxes, which might make him, and those who own him in Fantasy Football, very happy."

Analysis: We agree with this report that Bush should have a good season with the Lions. He is expected to start ahead of Mikel Leshoure, and coach Jim Schwartz said Bush could be in line for as many as 80 catches. We consider Bush a solid No. 2 Fantasy running back in standard leagues with the chance to be a No. 1 option in PPR formats. He's worth drafting as early as Round 3 in standard leagues.

Bears release Fluellen
Andre Fluellen, DT, CHI
12:41 PM

News: The Bears have released veteran defensive lineman Andre Fluellen.

Analysis: Fluellen will attempt to add depth somewhere else this offseason. He's not going to help you win a Fantasy title.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings