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2012 Draft Prep: McFadden the ultimate risk/reward

Jamey Eisenberg
Senior Fantasy Writer
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Darren McFadden knows what you think of him. He hears the whispers of being called fragile and weak. In your view, porcelain dolls have a better chance of staying healthy compared to the Raiders running back.

McFadden is five years into his NFL career and has yet to play a full 16-game season. He has missed 19 of a possible 60 games, and last year was his worst season of all with only seven games played thanks to a Lisfranc injury in his right foot.

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But he's back this year at 100 percent, and his goal is to dominate the NFL. We believe in McFadden, and the prediction here is he will have a career year.

"I just want to come out there and pick up where I left off at," McFadden recently told the local Oakland media. "The type of injury that I had was something that set me down for a long time, but a lot of people may think it is hard to bounce back and get back in the flow of things. Once I am back out there on the field, I feel like I am at home, so I will just go out there and try to pick up where I left off."

Where McFadden left off in 2011 was impressive. Prior to going down, he had 113 carries for 614 rushing yards and four touchdowns and 19 catches for 154 yards and one touchdown. He was averaging 14.3 Fantasy points per game, which would have made him a Top 10 running back if he kept up that pace.

McFadden has been a beast when healthy. He has averaged 88.5 rush yards and 33.0 receiving yards over his last 20 starts with 15 total touchdowns -- all with Michael Bush there. Bush is gone now, signing as a free agent with the Bears, and McFadden's touches could actually increase given the lack of quality talent behind him with unproven commodities in Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones.

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But the biggest issue with McFadden as we all know is health. Can he stay on the field? His best season to date was 2010 when he played 13 games and finished with 223 carries for 1,157 yards and seven touchdowns and 47 catches for 507 yards and three touchdowns. Fantasy owners would take that production in a second, and if he managed 16 games the stats would be phenomenal.

"I think we all understand that he's an explosive playmaker for us, and we need him to be healthy for an entire season," Raiders coach Dennis Allen said.

McFadden feels great now at the start of training camp, and he said he doesn't plan to alter his running style to protect himself from injuries. Fantasy owners will still fear McFadden, but if you want to win championships sometimes you have to gamble on talented players and hope they perform.

McFadden certainly falls into that category. He knows what he's capable of when he steps on the field, and he hopes this is the year he sheds the injury-prone label.

"It is one of those things where it happens in football," McFadden said of getting hurt. "I can't say I am unlucky about it. I am a very blessed person to even be playing in this league, so for me I just go out there and take it one day at a time. I can't control injuries. If I get hurt, I am going to get hurt going hard. So it's something I can't control, and I am not going to go out there and play to not get hurt."

McFadden's Average Draft Position at the start of training camp is No. 11 overall. He is being drafted as the No. 7 running back behind Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Ryan Mathews, Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. That's the right spot for McFadden to go. He has elite talent and if he plays close to a full season, he could easily be a Top 5 running back.

There is risk involved with drafting McFadden, but if he rewards you with a significant amount of games played then you could be looking at a possible Fantasy championship.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

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Player News
Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski slated for fourth surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2:00 PM
News: New England tight end Rob Gronkowski will undergo a fourth surgery on his left forearm Monday at Massachusetts General Hospital, the Boston Herald reports Sunday. Dr. Jesse Jupiter is expected to perform the surgery. A new plate is expected to replace the one already in his arm and he will begin a new 10-11 week recovery period.
Analysis: The doctors will take a culture from Gronk's arm and if it shows the infection has lingered, it could be "back to square one," for the tight end. He could miss regular season games if that happens so Fantasy owners will want to watch out. It goes without saying that his Fantasy draft stock will be affected negatively if he has all the procedures and isn't ready for training camp or preseason games. Count on us to keep you posted on the latest news on Gronkowski between now and when the season starts.

Dwight Freeney
Freeney signs with Chargers
Dwight Freeney, DE, IND
10:44 AM
News: The Chargers have signed linebacker Dwight Freeney to a two-year contract, NFL.com reports.
Analysis: The 33-year-old Freeney had 12 tackles and five sacks last year for the Colts. The Chargers needed a pass rusher and this was a good fit. Still, we're not sure he'll carry much Fantasy value in IDP formats.

EJ Manuel
Manuel could start Week 1
EJ Manuel, QB, BUF
5/17/2013
News: The Bills official team website reports that new general manager Doug Whaley was asked in an appearance on the NFL Network about the chances of rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel being ready to start Week 1 of the regular season. Whaley didn’t rule out the possibility. “Time will tell,” said Whaley. ”He does have the work ethic and the leadership qualities that he’ll have a chance. But we believe competition brings out the best in everybody. Between him, Kevin Kolb, Tarvaris Jackson, even Jeff Tuel, we’re excited to see who comes out on top of that position battle.” Buffalo’s season opener is a home game against New England.
Analysis: We'd like to see Manuel start from Week 1 because he presents the most upside of the quarterback group in Buffalo. Keep an eye on Manuel's progress this offseason, and he has the chance to be a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback in standard leagues. In rookie-only drafts, Manuel should be considered a Top 15 overall selection.

Mike Goodson
Goodson arrested Friday
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
5/17/2013
News: Jets running back Mike Goodson was arrested on drug and weapon charges early on Friday morning, reports News 12 in New Jersey. According to the report, Goodson and another man were found intoxicated in a parked SUV along Route 80 in Denville, New Jersey, which is about 15 miles northwest of the Jets' headquarters in Florham Park. A loaded .45-caliber handgun with hollow-point bullets was found in the SUV and when the 25-year-old running back was transported to a hospital for evaluation, marijuana was discovered in his possession. The Jets signed Goodson to a three-year, $6 million contract on March 15 to compete for a starting job this season. Goodson's deal with the Jets included a $1.93 million guaranteed. CBSSports.com blogger Will Brinson researched that illegal possession of hollow point bullets is a "crime of the fourth degree" in New Jersey, which appears to be among the states with the strictest laws regarding the ammunition.
Analysis: Goodson could be headed to prison, not to mention an NFL suspension, if found guilty of this crime. Before this incident we expected him to be No. 2 on the depth chart behind Chris Ivory. Now there's no telling just how far he'll fall. For the time being there's no reason to spend anything more than a late-round flier on Goodson since his playing time was going to be fairly limited to begin with.

Bruce Irvin
Irvin suspended four games
Bruce Irvin, LB, SEA
5/17/2013
News: Seattle defensive end Bruce Irvin has been suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2013 regular season for violating the NFL policy on performance enhancing substances, the team reported Friday. Irvin will be eligible to return to the Seahawks' active roster on Monday, Sept. 30 following the team's Sept. 29 game against the Texans. Irvin is eligible to participate in all offseason and preseason practices and games. "I want to apologize to my teammates, coaches and Seahawks fans for making a mistake when I took a substance that is prohibited in the NFL without a medical exemption," Irvin said in a statement. "I am extremely disappointed in the poor judgment I showed and take full responsibility for my actions. I will not appeal the discipline and instead will focus my energy on preparing for the season so I can begin earning your trust and respect again. I look forward to contributing to the team the moment I return."
Analysis: Irvin had a solid year in 2012 with eight sacks. He didn't provide much else with only 16 total tackles and one fumble recovery, but he now will miss the first four games of the season. He is only worth drafting with a late-round flier in IDP leagues.

Josh Cribbs
Cribbs still not healthy
Josh Cribbs, WR, OAK
5/17/2013
News: The Raiders official team website reports that newly signed receiver Josh Cribbs hopes to have a role on offense as much as just being a return man. "Definitely. I feel like it’s a definite possibility for competition at that position," Cribbs said. "At this point, my job is to come in and be a special teams' guru to help solidify our special teams unit in the NFL and to raise our goals and our standards. If we do that, we will become an elite unit." Cribbs also addressed the health of his knee. "I’m doing well," Cribbs said. "If we were lining up to play football in June then it would be a hot topic. I will be ready to play football when it’s time to play football, and I think that is the important thing."
Analysis: It sounds like Cribbs is still dealing with his knee issue, but he should be ready for the start of training camp. He also could see time at receiver, but he'll have to prove himself first. He's not worth drafting in standard leagues, but he could be worth a late-round flier in leagues where you get points for return yardage.

Matt Ryan
Ryan speaks on O-line
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
5/17/2013
News: Matt Ryan's receiving threats are well documented and the Falcons' run game got a strong upgrade in Steven Jackson. But the offensive line is undergoing some changes as center Todd McClure retired and Tyson Clabo was released. Ryan says not to worry about it. "We've got a guy in Peter Konz that played guard for us last year, but during practice, I got a lot of snaps with Peter. Joe Hawley has played a little bit for us when Todd’s been out for a series or two throughout games the last couple of years. I’ll be fine. We’ll be fine with those guys in terms of the snap," Ryan told 790 The Zone in Atlanta. "It’s a little different and that takes some getting used to so it becomes something you don’t even think about. ... We've got Mike Johnson who has played a number of different roles for us. Then a young guy like Lamar Holmes, he’s a guy we drafted high last year that we feel really good about. He’s extremely talented and I think he’s beginning to learn the offense more and more and this offseason has been productive for him. I’m excited about those guys. I think they’re fully capable of coming in and playing good football for us. They just need to do it."
Analysis: The Falcons' offensive line is actually a significant factor for Ryan. Last season when he was not under pressure and not blitzed he completed over 70 percent of his passes. When he was blitzed or under pressure that completion percentage fell to under 62 percent according to Pro Football Focus. That's probably typical for most quarterbacks but we've seen passers' numbers completely decline when they're under duress (think of Arizona last year, Chicago and St. Louis in years past). Granted, Ryan's a very talented passer and the O-line shouldn't be what does him in, it's just something to watch in camp this summer. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback who will fall to Round 4 in drafts this summer.

Falcons
Ryan speaks on O-line
Falcons, TQB ATL,
5/17/2013
News: Matt Ryan's receiving threats are well documented and the Falcons' run game got a strong upgrade in Steven Jackson. But the offensive line is undergoing some changes as center Todd McClure retired and Tyson Clabo was released. Ryan says not to worry about it. "We've got a guy in Peter Konz that played guard for us last year, but during practice, I got a lot of snaps with Peter. Joe Hawley has played a little bit for us when Todd’s been out for a series or two throughout games the last couple of years. I’ll be fine. We’ll be fine with those guys in terms of the snap," Ryan told 790 The Zone in Atlanta. "It’s a little different and that takes some getting used to so it becomes something you don’t even think about. ... We've got Mike Johnson who has played a number of different roles for us. Then a young guy like Lamar Holmes, he’s a guy we drafted high last year that we feel really good about. He’s extremely talented and I think he’s beginning to learn the offense more and more and this offseason has been productive for him. I’m excited about those guys. I think they’re fully capable of coming in and playing good football for us. They just need to do it."
Analysis: The Falcons' offensive line is actually a significant factor for Ryan. Last season when he was not under pressure and not blitzed he completed over 70 percent of his passes. When he was blitzed or under pressure that completion percentage fell to under 62 percent according to Pro Football Focus. That's probably typical for most quarterbacks but we've seen passers' numbers completely decline when they're under duress (think of Arizona last year, Chicago and St. Louis in years past). Granted, Ryan's a very talented passer and the O-line shouldn't be what does him in, it's just something to watch in camp this summer. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback who will fall to Round 4 in drafts this summer.

Kendall Wright
Wright in better shape
Kendall Wright, WR, TEN
5/17/2013
News: The Titans official website reports that receiver Kendall Wright has never felt better physically. “I’m in the best shape I’ve ever been,” Wright said. The second-year receiver is tipping the scales around 187 pounds, approximately 14 pounds lighter than when he arrived last year. Wright attributed part of the transformation to workouts at Baylor after his rookie campaign ended. A bigger difference maker, however, may have been his routes through grocery stores that passed by junk food. “For the most part, it wasn’t about the running,” Wright said. “I just started taking care of my body and eating right. I wasn’t eating right at all. I was eating a lot of junk food because that’s what I like and that’s what I’d buy, but I cut down on that and just started eating right. When you don’t buy it, you’re not going to eat it, so I just stopped buying it.”
Analysis: Wright finished his rookie season with 64 catches for 626 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games. He enters this season with the chance to start for the Titans, and we like him as a key reserve receiver with upside. Plan on drafting Wright with a mid-round pick.

Thomas Keiser
Keiser rumbles to Bolts
Thomas Keiser, LB, SD
5/17/2013
News: Days after his release from the Panthers, the Chargers have signed linebacker Thomas Keiser.
Analysis: Keiser played in four games last year before landing on IR with an elbow injury. He'll try and help replace Melvin Ingram in the team's pass rush. He's unlikely to be a relevant Fantasy option.

 
 
 
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