2012 Draft Prep: Buy-low candidates

Senior Fantasy Writer

Aug. 6, 2012 12:05 PM ET

Everyone loves to save and find a bargain. It's why we cut coupons and look for two-for-one specials. You always want to get more value than what you actually spend, and it's a great feeling when that happens.

With that in mind, we're here to help find your Draft Day deals. These are buy-low candidates, which are players who are being drafted in Round 10 or later based on Average Draft Position, but they have the chance to become Fantasy starters.

We see it happen almost every year; a player selected with a late-round pick ends up becoming a quality Fantasy option in all leagues. Some buy-low candidates from last year included Cam Newton (2011 ADP was Round 13), DeMarco Murray (2011 ADP was Round 13), Antonio Brown (2011 ADP was Round 17) and Brent Celek (2011 ADP was Round 11).

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Now, we all have our late-round sleepers who we think are going to shine. But the reality is most of the players listed below are going to be drafted late for a reason. Still, we hope to point out a few players who should be great bargains on Draft Day.

Editor's note: Average Draft Position data as of Aug. 3.

Quarterback

Guys available: Joe Flacco (pick No. 128), Carson Palmer (130), Andrew Luck (139), Josh Freeman (140), Andy Dalton (143), Sam Bradford (152), Ryan Fitzpatrick (155), Alex Smith (157), Matt Flynn (159), Matt Cassel (212)
I'd draft ... Palmer, Luck, Freeman, Dalton, Fitzpatrick and Smith
Here's why: Freeman and Smith might have benefited the most this offseason with the weapons added to their respective receiving corps. Freeman got a new No. 1 receiver in Vincent Jackson, an upgrade at tight end in Dallas Clark over Kellen Winslow and a tremendous backfield threat in Doug Martin. Keep in mind that Freeman is just one year removed from being a Top 10 Fantasy quarterback, and he could easily get back to that level if things break right. Smith got two new targets in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham and LaMichael James should help out of the backfield also. ... Most Fantasy analysts, myself included, expect Robert Griffin III to be the top rookie quarterback, but Luck might be right there with him. He has quality talent around him in Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and Coby Fleener, and the Colts might be trailing in every game, forcing Luck to throw a lot in comeback efforts. ... Palmer only saw limited action last year after being traded to the Raiders, but he had at least 18 Fantasy points in six of nine starts. He should have a similar ratio this season and makes for a quality No. 2 Fantasy passer. The same goes for Dalton and Fitzpatrick, especially since Fitzpatrick finished as a Top 12 Fantasy quarterback last year. ... One other quarterback not being drafted who is worth consideration is Jake Locker, who could end up as the starter for the Titans by Week 1.

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Running back

Guys available: Ryan Williams (116), David Wilson (125), Felix Jones (126), Tim Hightower (127), Daniel Thomas (133), Pierre Thomas (135), Ronnie Hillman (136), Rashard Mendenhall (137), Kevin Smith (141), Jacquizz Rodgers (147), Robert Turbin (151), Mike Goodson (153), Brandon Jacobs (154), Shane Vereen (160), Cedric Benson (167), Evan Royster (168), Rashad Jennings (171), Bernard Scott (173), Isaiah Pead (181), Mike Tolbert (194)
I'd draft ... Williams, Wilson, Pierre Thomas, Hillman, Smith, Rodgers, Turbin, Goodson, Royster, Jennings, Scott and Pead
Here's why: Williams is one of my favorite sleepers this year. I'd rather pass on Beanie Wells in Round 5 -- which is his ADP -- and take Williams in Round 10, because their production should be similar, making Williams the better buy. ... Hillman and Rodgers are two running backs I plan to target in PPR leagues. The Broncos and Falcons are expected to be pass-heavy this season, and Hillman and Rodgers will be on the field in those situations more than Willis McGahee and Michael Turner, respectively. Hillman might also turn out to be a fine option in standard leagues as well. ... The Giants drafted Wilson in the first round, which speaks volumes about how they view Ahmad Bradshaw as a featured running back. While Bradshaw should still dominate the touches, Wilson will also get plenty of playing time, and Bradshaw has a lengthy injury history with foot problems. ... Some excellent backup running backs could be Turbin, Jennings and Pead. Turbin could be the starter in Seattle at some point if Marshawn Lynch is suspended. Jennings could open the season as the starter in Jacksonville if Maurice Jones-Drew has a lengthy holdout and Pead has drawn comparisons to Chris Johnson as the backup to Steven Jackson. New Rams coach Jeff Fisher, who coached Johnson in Tennessee, might use Pead to supplement Jackson, and Jackson is nearing the end of his run as a featured rusher, which means a breakdown could possibly happen this year. ... I'm coming around on Smith as the best running back for the Lions. He's healthy, which is something that can't be said about Mikel Leshoure and Jahvid Best during training camp. ... Goodson is an emergency option in case Darren McFadden goes down, and Royster might end up as the best running back for the Redskins. At least for one week. The next week it could be Roy Helu. The week after that it could be Hightower. You never know with Mike Shanahan, but Royster could get an extended look.

Wide receiver

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Guys available: Justin Blackmon (pick No. 110), Santonio Holmes (113), Lance Moore (115), Sidney Rice (123), Darrius Heyward-Bey (131), Santana Moss (132), Michael Crabtree (134), Greg Little (138), Laurent Robinson (142), Nate Washington (146), Mike Williams (148), Brian Quick (161), Kendall Wright (162), Danny Amendola (164), Michael Floyd (165), Brandon LaFell (169), Randall Cobb (174), Mario Manningham (176), Doug Baldwin (179), David Nelson (180), Austin Collie (184), Jon Baldwin (187), Chad Johnson (188), Rueben Randle (193), Vincent Brown (200), Emmanuel Sanders (203), Jacoby Ford (205), Jerome Simpson (207)
I'd draft ... Holmes, Moore, Rice, Heyward-Bey, Moss, Little, Washington, Williams, Quick, Wright, LaFell, Cobb, Jon Baldwin and Randle
Here's why: It's never a bad thing to draft a team's No. 1 receiver even if the quarterback situation isn't great. That's what we have here with Holmes, Rice, Little and potentially Quick (I'd pass on Blackmon/Robinson because I don't trust either one coming into the season). Each of these receivers has the potential to be No. 3 Fantasy options, with Holmes and Rice proven commodities and Little and Quick likely featured targets on bad teams. ... Moore is an underrated Fantasy receiver playing with an elite quarterback in Drew Brees, and he should benefit with more targets now that Robert Meachem is in San Diego. Cobb is another receiver that has the chance for big stats based on his quarterback, and Aaron Rodgers should enjoy throwing to Cobb down the field. ... Denarius Moore should be considered the No. 1 receiver for the Raiders, but Heyward-Bey was a breakout in his third year in 2011. Hopefully he can build off that in 2012. ... Speaking of third-year receivers, LaFell should be a breakout candidate catching passes from Newton. He should make tremendous strides this season. We hope Williams takes advantage of his third season after a disappointing sophomore campaign. A bounce-back year from Freeman would help. ... Washington and Wright will benefit from a potential Kenny Britt suspension, and Britt is still dealing with a knee injury. ... Baldwin is taking advantage of Dwayne Bowe's holdout, and Randle has the chance to make plays early in the year with Hakeem Nicks (foot) hurt. ... Moss is being overlooked with the Redskins adding Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan this offseason, but don't be surprised if Moss remains the best receiver in Washington this year. ... Speaking of the Redskins, two receivers not being drafted worth consideration are Leonard Hankerson and Josh Gordon. Hankerson could start opposite Garcon with Moss in the slot. And Gordon, who was a supplemental draft pick in Cleveland, could be the starter along with Little.

Tight end

Guys available: Jacob Tamme (pick No. 109), Brandon Pettigrew (112), Jermaine Gresham (118), Brent Celek (121), Owen Daniels (149), Coby Fleener (158), Jared Cook (163), Dustin Keller (170), Kyle Rudolph (175), Greg Olsen (183), Heath Miller (198), Dallas Clark (201), Martellus Bennett (208), Kellen Winslow (211)
I'd draft ... Tamme, Pettigrew, Gresham, Celek, Daniels, Fleener, Cook, Keller, Rudolph and Olsen
Here's why: Tight end is one of the deepest positions this year. You can definitely take one of the elite options in the first five rounds like Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski or Antonio Gates, which is fine. But if you choose to wait, there are great tight ends out there, including the ones listed here. Gresham is my favorite breakout tight end this year, and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden wants to feature him in the passing game like the Patriots use Gronkowski. He should be the No. 2 target for Dalton after A.J. Green. ... Pettigrew and Celek were Top 12 tight ends last year, and they should finish in that range again. ... Tamme will benefit from being reunited with Peyton Manning in Denver after the two were teammates with the Colts, and the same goes for Fleener with Luck. The two were college stars at Stanford, and Luck should lean on Fleener. ... Daniels and Keller will likely be the No. 2 options in the passing game for the Texans and Jets, respectively, and each should see plenty of targets. ... Olsen will improve now that Jeremy Shockey is gone in Carolina, and Olsen has the talent to be a Top 10 tight end. ... Cook also could thrive for the Titans, but he needs to be more consistent.

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Griffin to be ready by camp?
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
5/23/2013

News: Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan suggested Thursday that quarterback Robert Griffin III has a chance to be ready for the start of training camp. "We're hoping," he said. "He's working extremely hard." Shanahan also said he wouldn't be comfortable starting Griffin without some offseason or preseason work. Griffin was spotted by NFL Network dropping back on passes to receivers while wearing a helmet along with a brace on his right knee on Thursday.

Analysis: It would be incredible for RG3 to be ready to go by late July, less than seven months after getting hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back unless they were convinced he was totally healthy. That seems risky, but for now any positive progress is great for prospective Fantasy owners. Here's a gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Shanahan: Garcon had surgery
Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS
5/23/2013

News: Mike Shanahan disclosed Thursday that wide receiver Pierre Garcon had chest surgery this offseason, but the Washington Times clarified it as a minor procedure on his labrum, which is in the shoulder . It appears Garcon is not a candidate to miss any serious playing time, however. "I think he's really unbelievable. He's come back so fast ..." Shanahan said of his receiver. "lifting weights he shouldn't be able to lift."

Analysis: Garcon is also still battling a toe injury that capsized much of his first year in D.C. As long as he's healthy for the start of the season he's got plenty of upside to offer Fantasy owners. Garcon finished last year averaging 14.4 yards per catch, the second-highest average in his career, but he had a four-year-low 44 receptions with a three-year-worst four scores. Staying healthy is obviously the most important thing he can do to keep him relevant in Fantasy Football but one recurrence of the toe injury could wipe out several games. If he can stay upright -- and assuming quarterback Robert Griffin III is healthy with his knee -- Garcon can be considered a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a mid-round pick.

Casey has knee surgery
James Casey, TE, PHI
5/23/2013

News: USA Today reports that Eagles tight end James Casey will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean out loose cartilage his right knee and will be out of action for the rest of the spring. A team spokesman said Casey should be ready to go by the start of training camp. Casey signed a three-year deal with $14.5 million as one of the first additions for the Eagles in a busy opening few days in free agency. The former Texans fullback/tight end is expected to play a key role in coach Chip Kelly's offense.

Analysis: Casey had career-highs with 34 receptions, 330 yards and three touchdowns last year, numbers that could spike with the Eagles because of the expected design of the offense and the up-tempo style that will result in more snaps. Like any player getting used to Kelly's offense, Casey would surely benefit from more reps through the rest of organized team activities and minicamp, so being sidelined for the next month isn't ideal. Still, if all goes as well as planned, Casey should get plenty of time on the field in July and August as long as he's healthy. He's not worth drafting in most leagues, but Casey is someone to monitor as a potential waiver wire addition if he's fine as expected following this procedure.

Manning to CBS: My arm is stronger
Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
5/23/2013

News: In an exclusive Q&A with CBSSports.com NFL Columnist Pete Prisco, Peyton Manning admitted to being nervous about his arm as far back as June 2011 when he had a hard time throwing at all, then again last season when he forced some things in a road game at Atlanta. But a year removed from rehabbing his arm, Manning sounds confident in his skills. "I feel much more comfortable than I was last year. I am stronger than I was last year. I am throwing the ball better now in May of 2013 than I did in May of 2012 -- significantly better," he said. "I got better throughout the season. I am not doing the monthly update reports anymore. I am past that."

Analysis: The Broncos will attempt to move into a more up-tempo approach this season and added Wes Welker to an already stacked receiving corps. Manning should be in for a very good season, perhaps even better than the one he had last year. Manning is a candidate for 300 yards and at least two scores every week. He should be considered an elite passer worth a pick between the middle of Round 2 and the end of Round 3, depending on your league's size and scoring system.

Richardson misses practice
Trent Richardson, RB, CLE
5/23/2013

News: Browns coach Rob Chudzinski comfirmed running back Trent Richardson missed practice Thursday with a lower leg muscle pull. "It's precautionary," Chudzinski said. "We are holding him out. He may miss minicamp in a week and a half. I'm not sure, we'll just take it day-by-day."

Analysis: The Browns can't take chances with their prized running back, particularly since he'll be featured in an offense that will lean heavily on him. Richardson established himself as one of the top young running backs in the league last season with 267 carries for 950 yards with 11 touchdowns and another 51 catches for 367 yards and a score. He should be able to better those stats this season as long as he's healthy. You're taking him with a Top 5 pick.

Welker expects catches to drop
Wes Welker, WR, DEN
5/23/2013

News: The Denver Post reports that new Broncos receiver Wes Welker doesn't expect to reach his average for receptions, which was 112 over the past six seasons with the Patriots. "If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we're in trouble," Welker said. "(The catches) are not the goal," Welker said. "The goal is to go out there and help your team win games. However many catches that is, however many blocks that takes, however many routes I've got to run, whatever. I think we all feel the same way about that." The report says that in New England, the Patriots don't feature their outside receivers. In recent years, they have become a tight end-slot attack. Not so the Broncos. For all the questions about Peyton Manning's arm strength last year, he threw enough outside the numbers to help Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker develop into one of the NFL's top receiver tandems. "I mean, we have two really good guys. We can't ignore them," Welker said. "If one guy is catching 112 balls, the defense is focusing in on that guy. We want defenses focusing on everybody and having to worry about everybody. That was one of the main reasons I came here."

Analysis: Now, before you downgrade Welker, keep in mind it's not like the plan calls for him to go from 112 catches to 50. Manning won't forget his friends, but he won't ignore the new guy, either. Welker's Fantasy value definitely takes a hit going from New England to Denver, but he remains a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick in Round 4 or 5 in standard leagues. In PPR formats, look for Welker to be drafted as early as Round 3 since he should still be around 85-plus catches despite the drop-off with the Broncos.

Harvin to get time at running back
Percy Harvin, WR, SEA
5/23/2013

News: The Seattle Times reports that new Seattle receiver Percy Harvin is already making an impact. "His talent level is unbelievable, off the charts," said quarterback Russell Wilson. "He brings an explosive mentality to the game, which a lot of our guys already have. But to have him is truly tremendous. He's a guy that's been one of the best football players in the National Football League for the past several years." Harvin, 24, has averaged 1,800 total yards in four seasons and was on pace for 2,400 yards in 2012 — which would have led the NFL — before an ankle injury ended his season. In those nine games, he had 62 catches — 12 more than any Seahawk — for 677 yards. He also had 96 yards rushing and 574 yards on kickoff returns, including a 105-yard touchdown return. The Seahawks plan to use him similarly. He'll likely line up in the slot as his regular spot, but figures to get used outside, as well, and should see his share of handoffs and kickoff returns. "I'll be moving around — pretty much all around," said Harvin. "There'll be a little bit of running back coming up. But right now, we're just trying to get the foundation set, just running the base plays, and we'll see where it goes from there."

Analysis: We're excited about Harvin in Seattle because he should be able to remain highly involved on offense with better talent around him. Harvin remains a solid No. 1 Fantasy receiver, and he's worth drafting in Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, especially if he continues to see time in the backfield.

Rodgers: Cobb could catch 100 passes
Randall Cobb, WR, GB
5/23/2013

News: ESPN reports that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has high expectations for third-year receiver Randall Cobb this season. Last year, Cobb made an enormous jump in his second NFL season. With Greg Jennings out with a torn abdominal muscle, Cobb played 733 snaps and caught a team-high 80 passes for 954 yards and added eight touchdowns. Rodgers thinks Cobb can do more. "I think Randall Cobb is a guy who could be a 100-plus catch guy every year," Rodgers said.

Analysis: We don't think Rodgers is far off with Cobb, who could take the next step in his career in his third season. The Packers as a team have high expectations for Cobb, and we like him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option. Plan on drafting Cobb in Round 4 in the majority of leagues, with his value slightly higher in PPR formats.

Williams played 'scared' in '12
Ryan Williams, RB, ARI
5/23/2013

News: Cardinals running back Ryan Williams told the Arizona Republic that he was more concerned about his knee than his play last season, saying he played scared. Williams came back from a torn patella tendon suffered in 2011 and wasn't ready for the physical punishment that comes with playing running back. Per the story, he got nervous when then-quarterback Kevin Kolb would call '39 toss' because it exposed his right side and his injured knee. The lack of confidence left him "pretty much scared all last year to get the ball in my hands." He added hurting his shoulder was a "blessing" because it allowed him time to get his knee feeling good. Now he says he's not scared anymore. "This is the healthiest I've felt in the past two years," Williams said. "It feels good to be able to run like myself, instinctive and not having to think about what I’m doing, just going out and doing it. I've been working real hard, so things are looking good. My stars are aligned this year."

Analysis: In the story coach Bruce Arians noted that Williams has his mobility back and is someone to watch when the pads come on. Williams has to fight for playing time after the Cardinals drafted Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington and signed Rashard Mendenhall. For now he's no better than a late-round flier but if he looks good in camp and runs with confidence then we could see him getting a decent amount of work.

Harbaugh: Crabtree will play in '13
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
5/23/2013

News: 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh indicated that Michael Crabtree's torn right Achilles will not cost him the entire season. With surgery already done, it is believed Crabtree will return within six months. Linebacker Patrick Willis said Crabtree went down after making a "simple, normal cut" after going in motion and before starting his route during 7 on 7 drills. "Crab is one of those tough guys. He can get hit hard, and he'll bounce right back up," Willis told the San Jose Mercury News. "Yesterday he stayed down a little longer than normal. You say a little prayer and hope it wasn't as bad as it looked. Unfortunately it is."

Analysis: Crabtree was expected to post ridiculous numbers in 2013 after becoming Colin Kaepernick's go-to receiver last year and his promise to dedicate himself to being the Niners' top receiver this year. Eventually he should return and contribute to the Niners but the earliest it seems he could be back is Week 12 at Washington. If you draft Crabtree with what would now be a late-round pick, you'd have to dedicate a bench spot to him for most of the regular season with no guarantee you'd get him in your lineup at 100 percent, if at all. We'd rather spend the same late-round pick on Anquan Boldin or maybe even A.J. Jenkins knowing both will see a lot of work in San Francisco with Crabtree sidelined.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings