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2012 Draft Prep: Sleepers for Draft Day

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Funny thing about sleepers: I can suggest 50 names to you, but you probably won't have room for more than two, maybe three. With only so much space on a Fantasy roster, devoting spots to guys who may or may not pan out versus players with legitimate expectations doesn't make a ton of sense.

Yet a nice-sized list is provided here anyway. With a sleeper, we're not necessarily looking for men you've never heard of. In fact, if you're an even a mild Fantasy follower you'll know every single name on this list. We're looking for bargains here -- players who will get picked at a spot later than their expectations dictate. Nothing's better than coming through on a sleeper, so here are a dozen guys I have on my list.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: Forget everything you know about Cutler as a Bear so far: The 63-to-49 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the 59.9 completion percentage, the 7.1 yards per attempt average and even the 100 sacks he took over 41 games with Chicago. The offensive schemes he worked in and the receivers he's regularly worked with have been completely overhauled. Former Broncos teammate Brandon Marshall has rejoined him in the Windy City, as has big rookie Alshon Jeffery. Devin Hester is being reconsidered for a big role in the passing game and fellow Vanderbilt Commodore Earl Bennett will fill in the blanks between those guys. Cutler also should find his running backs often through the air and even could get a welcome surprise from his tight ends. But with a completely new scheme led by offensive coordinator Mike Tice and quarterbacks coach (and Cutler confidant) Jeremy Bates, Cutler should begin proving that he is among one of the best passers in football and not a rag doll behind an offensive line that can't routinely protect him on seven-step drops. With a more up-tempo offense expected, Cutler should be in line to come close to his 2008 numbers while in Denver. Not bad for a guy you'll take as your second quarterback.
My projection: 4,027 yards, 25 TDs, 16 INTs; 192 rush yards, TD
Early-August ADP: 105th overall
I'd take him: 89th overall

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Alex Smith, QB, 49ers: Here's another player you need to have amnesia with. Smith's first six seasons were as pretty as a plate of palak paneer, but Jim Harbaugh brought out the best in him in 2011. Smith set career-bests in completions (273), completion percentage (61.3 pct.), passing yards (3,144), yards per attempt (7.07), rushing yards (179), total touchdowns (19) and interceptions (five over 16 games). His effort landed him a new contract in San Francisco, where he'll enjoy being in the same offense for consecutive seasons for the first time since college. He'll also have three new receivers to upgrade the Niners passing game, including Super Bowl XLVI hero Mario Manningham and former All Pro Randy Moss. I'm not saying Smith is going to turn into Tom Brady and lead the universe in quarterback stats, but if you're shopping for a No. 2 quarterback on Draft Day, he's one who will not only be there late but not even be on the radar of other owners in your league because "he's been so bad for so long."
My projection: 3,859 yards, 26 TDs, 19 INTs; 117 rush yards
Early-August ADP: 143rd overall
I'd take him: 138th overall

Alex Green, RB, Packers: Green represents a low-risk, high-reward Fantasy player who could give your team a real boost if he does well and won't cause you to break a sweat if he doesn't. Like several other rushers, Green is coming off a torn ACL that short-circuited his rookie year. But Green's never been a quick-cutting speed merchant, he's more of a physical between-the-tackles fighter with a decent second gear. Typically ACL injuries don't rob these kinds of running backs of their playing ability (Jamal Lewis is a good example). What's more, the Packers had many opportunities to improve their rush attack after last season and didn't do it. They're fine with James Starks but many reports out of Wisconsin said Green was the guy the coaching staff wanted to see more of. And they're seeing plenty of him so far -- he passed his physical and wasn't on the PUP list to begin camp. After Starks' disappointing 2011 season, Green could get a chance to not only swipe some carries from week to week but also take over for John Kuhn at the goal line. He's a superb late-round choice.
My projection: 107 carries, 451 yards, four TDs; seven catches, 54 yards
Early-August ADP: 151st overall
I'd take him: 128th overall

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: Guilty as charged: I'm the guy who loved Ingram last season. Then I watched in horror as he averaged under 4.0 yards per carry and scored five touchdowns in 10 games before toe and knee injuries sidelined him for the season. So why haven't I learned my lesson? Figure it's still the allure of Ingram pounding in touchdowns from a few yards out, or gashing defenses between the tackles while the safeties are lined up deep to protect against a Drew Brees bomb. The injury concerns can't be ignored, but neither can the draft value -- he's the only running back with seven-plus touchdown potential going after the first 100 picks in a Fantasy draft. Compared to where he went last year (roughly 59th overall), he's a bargain in 2012.
My projection: 106 carries, 430 yards, six TDs; 14 catches, 87 yards
Early-August ADP: 97th overall
I'd take him: 90th overall

Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions: The prospects of an injury-plagued running back who has never played a down in the NFL and is suspended for the first two games of the season typically aren't very good. But Leshoure happens to be in the right place at the right time -- on a team without any long-term solutions at running back. Jahvid Best's future is very much up in the air following a pair of concussions that he hasn't been cleared for though the month of July and Kevin Smith has been productive but has his own physical problems that have held him back over the last three years. Leshoure isn't the picture of health himself but has recovered from a torn Achilles and is dealing with other minor ailments through the early part of camp. If the Lions weren't sure about his availability or durability they would have addressed their ground game this offseason. They never did. Leshoure has some massive potential playing in a Lions offense that never had the confidence to lean on their ground game for much of last season. If he can make it through camp healthy and rest easy during his suspension, he could be a house of fire beginning with a matchup at the Titans in Week 3.
My projection: 172 carries, 757 yards, seven TDs; 17 catches, 130 yards
Early-August ADP: 80th overall
I'd take him: 60th overall

Evan Royster, RB, Redskins: Royster wasn't a favorite of mine when he landed two starts toward the end of last season behind the Redskins' tattered offensive line, but back-to-back trouncings of the Vikings and Eagles surely opened my eyes. Now he's part of one of the ugliest running back trios for Fantasy owners to handicap, working with Tim Hightower and Roy Helu in Mike Shanahan's pick-a-rusher offense. Here's what I know: Helu is a good back with excellent receiving skills but for whatever reason Shanahan isn't ready to hand him the keys. Hightower is coming off a torn ACL, has a lot of wear and tear and is no lock to make it 12 games, much less 16. Enter Royster, who is only a year older than Helu but has the physical abilities Hightower might not be able to achieve anymore. The dilemma for Fantasy owners is whether or not Helu will be worth taking with a pick in Round 6, which is where his average draft spot is. If you won't take that risk, take this one: Royster will be around well into the late portion of your draft and has just as much of a chance to succeed in Washington as anyone else on the roster. Might as well go for the bargain, especially with a back who proved last year he can play.
My projection: 100 carries, 406 yards, four TDs; five catches, 25 yards
Early-August ADP: 148th overall
I'd take him: 129th overall

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Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks: Baldwin might be the most plain-jane name in Fantasy drafts. An undrafted rookie a year ago, he's basically the only sure thing in the Seattle passing game. Sidney Rice isn't a regular at practice and might be held out until the start of the season after shoulder and knee surgeries and concussion concerns. Golden Tate has barely made a dent in two seasons; he has 609 yards and three touchdowns in two years, Baldwin has 788 yards and four touchdowns in one year. A 1,000-yard, eight-score campaign from Baldwin would be surprising, but he should be expected to improve slightly from his rookie season. Remember, Baldwin had nine games last year with at least three grabs catching passes from Tarvaris Jackson. The Seahawks should have a better pass attack with someone other than Jackson under center and Baldwin will have every opportunity to be on the field.
My projection: 57 catches, 775 yards, four TDs
Early-August ADP: 151st overall
I'd take him: 130th overall

Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers: It'll take a sophisticated Fantasy owner to roll the dice on Floyd. Here are the positives: He's played his entire career in San Diego and has been a receiver for Philip Rivers since Rivers began playing regularly. He knows the Chargers offense well and he knows what's expected. To back that up, Floyd has totaled 1,573 yards and 11 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Now the bad: He's missed nine games in those two years. Floyd's no lock to play 16 games but in the games he will play he should figure prominently. Plus, he might be motivated to play through some minor injuries this year as he's due a new contract after 2012. He saw Vincent Jackson leave San Diego with a wad of cash in his wallet and he could be eyeing the same path. Floyd is unheralded but good material for Round 10 or later.
My projection: 57 catches, 915 yards, 4 TDs
Early-August ADP: 106th overall
I'd take him: 100th overall

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders: The butt of first-round draft pick jokes is now a legit Fantasy option. Playing in his third year in 2011, Heyward-Bey led the Raiders with 975 yards on 64 catches in effectively 13 games (he played sparingly in two post-bye week games because of believed disciplinary issues). But here's the thing, 45 percent of his catches (29), nearly 47 percent of his receiving yards (456) and three of his four touchdowns came in his final five games, all with Carson Palmer under center. The offense has changed in Oakland but Palmer is still going to lean on Heyward-Bey's size/speed combination (he threw at him 50 times in those final five games last season). With the Raiders expected to play a bunch from behind, Heyward-Bey shouldn't take a step back. Denarius Moore might be the hot name in Oakland, but Heyward-Bey has just as much potential to top the 1,000-yard mark while scoring more often than he did a season ago. Not bad for a late round pick.
My projection: 63 catches, 875 yards, 6 TDs
Early-August ADP: 128th overall
I'd take him: 103rd overall

Randy Moss, WR, 49ers: Admittedly, there isn't much of a secret to Randy Moss in Fantasy. In fact, I'll take him right around where people have been drafting him. But that should underscore the point I'm trying to make: Moss is worth the Round 9 or 10 risk in drafts. It might be a different story if he never sat out a season and was trying to re-establish his career after the washout season where he was on three different rosters. But everything points to Moss playing with a chip on his shoulder, like he has something to prove, like he warrants one more pay day. Moss has been a choir boy in the 49ers facility and a speed demon on the practice field, showing off good moves in camp every day. Remember, this is a man who has set major receiving records and has also made star quarterbacks out of Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper, Kerry Collins and Matt Cassel. Having Smith lob balls to him won't be the biggest challenge in his life. And remember, we're not talking about a big draft pick here, just a middle-round one. He should be well worth the risk.
My projection: 52 catches, 693 yards, six TDs
Early-August ADP: 104th overall
I'd take him: 98th overall

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Coby Fleener, TE, Colts: Everyone knows that Coby Fleener has built-in chemistry with quarterback Andrew Luck from their days together at Stanford, but not many people know that Fleener had a built-in connection with Colts coach Chuck Pagano before the draft. When asked about Fleener before the draft, Pagano told me he loved his skills -- they were obvious when you watched the tape on Luck that Fleener had talent. But Pagano also went on and on about the Patriots tight ends and how they caused him such a headache when he tried to defend against them in the AFC title game when he was the Ravens defensive coordinator. He wished he could create mismatches like those this season. Remember, this is all before Fleener was a Colt. Now Pagano has him. Now Luck keeps him. And now should be the time he loads up on targets and stats considering the rest of the Indy receiving corps is good but not great. He's a tremendous late-round pick whether you need a tight end or not.
My projection: 58 catches, 694 yards, six TDs
Early-August ADP: 143rd overall
I'd take him: 133rd overall

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: Gonzalez is not retired. He is active, healthy and ready to contribute to the Falcons in 2012. This news shouldn't be a shock to you, but the fact is he's getting passed over in drafts like he's already collecting Social Security. Gonzalez actually had his best year as a Falcon in 2011, collecting seven touchdowns on 80 catches for 875 yards. This followed up back-to-back 70-catch, six-score seasons. Why might he go out with a bang? Gonalez plays in an offense that will demand attention to two receivers and one running back. He'll be in single coverage against smaller safeties all the time, including in the red zone. There's no way he'll be as productive as Jimmy Graham and he'll probably pale in comparison to Antonio Gates and Jason Witten, but if you whiff on those guys then Gonzalez should be on your radar starting in Round 9.
My projection: 68 catches, 761 yards, seven TDs
Early-August ADP: 102nd overall
I'd take him: 91st overall

Off the radar: 10 deep sleepers of varying degrees
Vick Ballard, RB, IND Donald Brown isn't built for every down and distance and Ballard is better than Delone Carter.
Juron Criner, WR, OAK Solid offseason could provide early opportunity in three-receiver sets.
Kellen Davis, TE, CHI Six-foot-seven and on the field a bunch, he could repeat as the Bears' receiving TD leader.
Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT A fave of ours coming out of Georgia Tech, Dwyer can snipe reps from Redman with a good camp.
Josh Gordon, WR, CLE Has found time with the first-team offense after joining the Browns in July. Big talent but lacks experience.
Rob Housler, TE, ARI Big, fast tight end could work as the Cardinals No. 2 receiver. Definitely in the Gronk mold.
Lamar Miller, RB, MIA Might be too good to leave on the bench week after week in Miami's thin offense.
Phillip Tanner, RB, DAL DeMarco Murray is injury prone. Felix Jones is injury prone. Do the math.
Tim Tebow, QB, NYJ Oh, come on. Like you don't know he'll do some good things for the Jets this season!
Damian Williams, WR, TEN The more time Kenny Britt misses, the more time Williams can play as Titans' third receiver.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

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Player News
Bills move Corey Graham to safety
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2:01 am ET) The Bills have moved cornerback Corey Graham to safety, the Buffalo News reports.

Graham said that he and the team have discussed the move all offseason and decided to give the position change a try on Tuesday when the team held its first workout of OTAs.

"He’s got that unique ability where he can do both things," coach Rex Ryan said. "So let’s see what we have out there. And this is no slam on Duke or on Rambo or on Meeks or any of those guys, but this is us doing what’s best for the team. And if that means we feel good about [Graham] playing safety, then that’s where he’ll be."

Graham is enthusiastic about playing the safety position full-time.

"I want to try to really learn it and see where it goes, see how much my grasp is, see how I’m playing at it, see where it can take me," he said. "I look forward to it. It’s a challenge for me, but I’m actually very excited about it."

Graham recorded 84 total tackles last season, his first in Buffalo, while intercepting two passes.


Vikings' Bridgewater 'extremely comfortable' with leadership role
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Vikings second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is embracing his role as leader of the offense, the Star Tribune reports.

"I’m a young guy still on the team, but guys are pushing me forward to say something in the huddle, or break the team down, or break the offense down," Bridgewater said. "That just gives you that confidence in yourself, confidence in your leadership and I’ve been extremely comfortable doing that so far."

Coach Mike Zimmer is satsfied with the work Bridgewater has done during the offseason.

"It’s hard to never not be pleased with Teddy because he’s such a hard worker," Zimmer said. "We wanted him to get bigger and stronger; he looks a little bit bigger to me. He’s always worked real hard. The leadership things are starting to come better. I think he’s been doing a good job the two days we’ve been out here against the defense."

Bridgewater made 12 starts in his rookie season and played 13 games in all, racking up 2,919 yards, 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while completing 64.4 percent of his passes.


Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders hoping to reach 1,000 yards
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders believes the new offensive scheme in Denver will effect his numbers, accoridng to the team's website.

Sanders is working with new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison and coach Gary Kubiak to install the team's new offense and noted it's very different from last year's spread attack.

"You talk about going from a no-huddle offense to an offense that's huddling up, to an offense that is predicated off running a football and then throwing it. It's different," Sanders said. 

"It's a totally different set up, but I tell you what, the more and more I'm in it," said Sanders. "Because we can get the run game going and just use my vertical speed on cross routes and all these different combinations of routes is based off the play action, then I think the offense will be successful with Peyton Manning at the helm."

Sanders, who totaled 1,404 yards and nine touchdowns in 2014, doesn't think he'll accomplish the same numbers.

"Of course obviously it's not going to be one of those offenses, well I'm praying that it is, but obviously it's not going to be one of those offenses where you catch it and you're going to have two receivers catching over 100 passes," said Sanders. "Hopefully, my goal is really to try to get a 1,000 yards to just help this team win ball games."


Cowboys rookie La'el Collins taking reps at RT in OTAs
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Cowboys rookie offensive lineman La'el Collins started offseason team activities on Wednesday taking reps at right tackle, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Collins, who was signed as an undrafted free agent, could also see time at left guard. But the rookie is taking his first reps with the team at right tackle with Darrion Weems while Doug Free recovers from ankle surgery.

"We think he has the physical ability to play a couple of different spots," coach Jason Garrett said. "He was a tackle for most of his career in college but did play guard. We see him as a guy who can maybe do both of those things as he goes.

"The big thing for him is to try to get him acclimated as quickly as we can. So right now he's going to play right tackle for us. He and Darrion Weems are competing at that spot in Doug Free's absence and we'll just see how that unfolds." 


Vikings' Adrian Peterson on absence from OTAs: 'It's business'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Vikings running back Adrian Peterson said in a statement on Wednesday that his absence from OTAs has "nothing to do with wanting to be traded," ESPN reports.

"The reason I'm not attending OTAs has nothing to do with wanting to be traded. It's about securing my future with the Vikings. It's business, not personal and I understand that firsthand. Go Vikings."

It was reported earlier Wednesday that coach Mike Zimmer said that Peterson could "either play for us or not play." The running back has expressed frustration with team management for not showing him support during his legal case for child abuse.


Report: Falcons' Dezmen Southward undergoes knee surgery
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Falcons defensive backs Dezmen Southward underwent a minor-knee operation Wednesday, reports the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Southward did not attend Tuesday's OTA and it is not known how long he'll be sidelined.


Julius Thomas trying to fit into Jaguars' offense
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Jaguars tight end Julius Thomas said after Wednesday's organized team activity that he intends to make it work with quarterback Blake Bortles, reports The Florida Times-Union.

"There is no 'Here's me coming in, and Blake's going to get on my page.' I'm going to be on Blake's page," Thomas said. "Whatever he expects, that's what I am going to do. He's the quarterback. He's the one in control of that huddle, and I like catching passes so I will make sure I do exactly what he wants."

With Thomas entering his first season with the Jaguars, he said it will take time to develop a rapport with Bortles.

"I think that getting good chemistry with a quarterback probably takes a couple of thousand passes," Thomas said.


Cowboys RB Darren McFadden not concerned with playing time
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) With the Cowboys just beginning their organized team activities this week, running back Darren McFadden said he just wants to concentrate on becoming familiar with the team, reports the team's official website.

"For me, I'm just going out there grinding," he said. "However the coaches put me out there – whether it's first team or second team. When it comes time for them to make a decision, it's totally up to them. I'm just trying to get that playbook down and take advantage of this opportunity."

McFadden is competing with Joseph Randle to be the first-team running back, and he said he just wants to work hard and not worry about how many repetitions he's receiving with the first team.

"Once you've been in a place so long like Oakland, you can get set in your ways," McFadden said Wednesday, after his second OTA practice with the Cowboys. "Coming out here and being around guys that work so hard, it just brings out the best in you. It's something I look forward to."


Chiefs' Mike Catapano on his health: I feel better than ever
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) After missing the entire 2014 season with a gastrointestinal virus, Chiefs defensive end Mike Catapano was able to participate in the team's OTA on Wednesday, reports The Kansas City Star.

"Every time I step on the field now it's with purpose and with extra vigor that I never really had," Catapano said. "It feels great. I feel better than ever."

Catapano played in 15 games during his rookie season in 2013 and he totaled four tackles and one sack. He said he's ready to surpass that in 2015.

"I'm ready to show that I offer a lot to this team. I'm ready to step up in big situations and starting situations," Catapano said. "I just want to keep getting better every day… and play to the best of my abilities."


Broncos' Manning, Sanders keeping up with Thomas during holdout
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is holding out of offseason workouts while he continues to negotiate a long-term deal with the team, but teammates Emmanuel Sanders and Peyton Manning have been keeping up with the star receiver, the Denver Post reports.

"One thing a lot of people don’t realize is when you’re playing on a one-year deal, there’s a lot of things going through your head," Sanders said. "As much as you guys want to say, ‘Don’t think about it,' of course it’s going to cross your mind because you’re talking about a lot of money at stake. When you’re playing these one-year deals, it’s a lot of stress on you. No matter how much you don’t want it to be, it’s going to happen. We’re all human."

Manning would like to have Thomas in workouts but understands the business aspects of his decision.

"I keep up with Demaryius. He’s my buddy," Manning said. "They got that business side of it to work out, but he’s been a great teammate to me, been a great friend to me since I’ve been here in Denver, so I keep up with him. Obviously want him to get back here as soon as possible, but we want what’s best for him, and he certainly deserves what’s best for him."

Thomas has started 16 games for three straight season, topping 90 receptions, 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns in each.


 
 
 
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