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2012 Draft Prep: Sleepers for Draft Day

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Funny thing about sleepers: I can suggest 50 names to you, but you probably won't have room for more than two, maybe three. With only so much space on a Fantasy roster, devoting spots to guys who may or may not pan out versus players with legitimate expectations doesn't make a ton of sense.

Yet a nice-sized list is provided here anyway. With a sleeper, we're not necessarily looking for men you've never heard of. In fact, if you're an even a mild Fantasy follower you'll know every single name on this list. We're looking for bargains here -- players who will get picked at a spot later than their expectations dictate. Nothing's better than coming through on a sleeper, so here are a dozen guys I have on my list.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: Forget everything you know about Cutler as a Bear so far: The 63-to-49 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the 59.9 completion percentage, the 7.1 yards per attempt average and even the 100 sacks he took over 41 games with Chicago. The offensive schemes he worked in and the receivers he's regularly worked with have been completely overhauled. Former Broncos teammate Brandon Marshall has rejoined him in the Windy City, as has big rookie Alshon Jeffery. Devin Hester is being reconsidered for a big role in the passing game and fellow Vanderbilt Commodore Earl Bennett will fill in the blanks between those guys. Cutler also should find his running backs often through the air and even could get a welcome surprise from his tight ends. But with a completely new scheme led by offensive coordinator Mike Tice and quarterbacks coach (and Cutler confidant) Jeremy Bates, Cutler should begin proving that he is among one of the best passers in football and not a rag doll behind an offensive line that can't routinely protect him on seven-step drops. With a more up-tempo offense expected, Cutler should be in line to come close to his 2008 numbers while in Denver. Not bad for a guy you'll take as your second quarterback.
My projection: 4,027 yards, 25 TDs, 16 INTs; 192 rush yards, TD
Early-August ADP: 105th overall
I'd take him: 89th overall

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Alex Smith, QB, 49ers: Here's another player you need to have amnesia with. Smith's first six seasons were as pretty as a plate of palak paneer, but Jim Harbaugh brought out the best in him in 2011. Smith set career-bests in completions (273), completion percentage (61.3 pct.), passing yards (3,144), yards per attempt (7.07), rushing yards (179), total touchdowns (19) and interceptions (five over 16 games). His effort landed him a new contract in San Francisco, where he'll enjoy being in the same offense for consecutive seasons for the first time since college. He'll also have three new receivers to upgrade the Niners passing game, including Super Bowl XLVI hero Mario Manningham and former All Pro Randy Moss. I'm not saying Smith is going to turn into Tom Brady and lead the universe in quarterback stats, but if you're shopping for a No. 2 quarterback on Draft Day, he's one who will not only be there late but not even be on the radar of other owners in your league because "he's been so bad for so long."
My projection: 3,859 yards, 26 TDs, 19 INTs; 117 rush yards
Early-August ADP: 143rd overall
I'd take him: 138th overall

Alex Green, RB, Packers: Green represents a low-risk, high-reward Fantasy player who could give your team a real boost if he does well and won't cause you to break a sweat if he doesn't. Like several other rushers, Green is coming off a torn ACL that short-circuited his rookie year. But Green's never been a quick-cutting speed merchant, he's more of a physical between-the-tackles fighter with a decent second gear. Typically ACL injuries don't rob these kinds of running backs of their playing ability (Jamal Lewis is a good example). What's more, the Packers had many opportunities to improve their rush attack after last season and didn't do it. They're fine with James Starks but many reports out of Wisconsin said Green was the guy the coaching staff wanted to see more of. And they're seeing plenty of him so far -- he passed his physical and wasn't on the PUP list to begin camp. After Starks' disappointing 2011 season, Green could get a chance to not only swipe some carries from week to week but also take over for John Kuhn at the goal line. He's a superb late-round choice.
My projection: 107 carries, 451 yards, four TDs; seven catches, 54 yards
Early-August ADP: 151st overall
I'd take him: 128th overall

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: Guilty as charged: I'm the guy who loved Ingram last season. Then I watched in horror as he averaged under 4.0 yards per carry and scored five touchdowns in 10 games before toe and knee injuries sidelined him for the season. So why haven't I learned my lesson? Figure it's still the allure of Ingram pounding in touchdowns from a few yards out, or gashing defenses between the tackles while the safeties are lined up deep to protect against a Drew Brees bomb. The injury concerns can't be ignored, but neither can the draft value -- he's the only running back with seven-plus touchdown potential going after the first 100 picks in a Fantasy draft. Compared to where he went last year (roughly 59th overall), he's a bargain in 2012.
My projection: 106 carries, 430 yards, six TDs; 14 catches, 87 yards
Early-August ADP: 97th overall
I'd take him: 90th overall

Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions: The prospects of an injury-plagued running back who has never played a down in the NFL and is suspended for the first two games of the season typically aren't very good. But Leshoure happens to be in the right place at the right time -- on a team without any long-term solutions at running back. Jahvid Best's future is very much up in the air following a pair of concussions that he hasn't been cleared for though the month of July and Kevin Smith has been productive but has his own physical problems that have held him back over the last three years. Leshoure isn't the picture of health himself but has recovered from a torn Achilles and is dealing with other minor ailments through the early part of camp. If the Lions weren't sure about his availability or durability they would have addressed their ground game this offseason. They never did. Leshoure has some massive potential playing in a Lions offense that never had the confidence to lean on their ground game for much of last season. If he can make it through camp healthy and rest easy during his suspension, he could be a house of fire beginning with a matchup at the Titans in Week 3.
My projection: 172 carries, 757 yards, seven TDs; 17 catches, 130 yards
Early-August ADP: 80th overall
I'd take him: 60th overall

Evan Royster, RB, Redskins: Royster wasn't a favorite of mine when he landed two starts toward the end of last season behind the Redskins' tattered offensive line, but back-to-back trouncings of the Vikings and Eagles surely opened my eyes. Now he's part of one of the ugliest running back trios for Fantasy owners to handicap, working with Tim Hightower and Roy Helu in Mike Shanahan's pick-a-rusher offense. Here's what I know: Helu is a good back with excellent receiving skills but for whatever reason Shanahan isn't ready to hand him the keys. Hightower is coming off a torn ACL, has a lot of wear and tear and is no lock to make it 12 games, much less 16. Enter Royster, who is only a year older than Helu but has the physical abilities Hightower might not be able to achieve anymore. The dilemma for Fantasy owners is whether or not Helu will be worth taking with a pick in Round 6, which is where his average draft spot is. If you won't take that risk, take this one: Royster will be around well into the late portion of your draft and has just as much of a chance to succeed in Washington as anyone else on the roster. Might as well go for the bargain, especially with a back who proved last year he can play.
My projection: 100 carries, 406 yards, four TDs; five catches, 25 yards
Early-August ADP: 148th overall
I'd take him: 129th overall

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Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks: Baldwin might be the most plain-jane name in Fantasy drafts. An undrafted rookie a year ago, he's basically the only sure thing in the Seattle passing game. Sidney Rice isn't a regular at practice and might be held out until the start of the season after shoulder and knee surgeries and concussion concerns. Golden Tate has barely made a dent in two seasons; he has 609 yards and three touchdowns in two years, Baldwin has 788 yards and four touchdowns in one year. A 1,000-yard, eight-score campaign from Baldwin would be surprising, but he should be expected to improve slightly from his rookie season. Remember, Baldwin had nine games last year with at least three grabs catching passes from Tarvaris Jackson. The Seahawks should have a better pass attack with someone other than Jackson under center and Baldwin will have every opportunity to be on the field.
My projection: 57 catches, 775 yards, four TDs
Early-August ADP: 151st overall
I'd take him: 130th overall

Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers: It'll take a sophisticated Fantasy owner to roll the dice on Floyd. Here are the positives: He's played his entire career in San Diego and has been a receiver for Philip Rivers since Rivers began playing regularly. He knows the Chargers offense well and he knows what's expected. To back that up, Floyd has totaled 1,573 yards and 11 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Now the bad: He's missed nine games in those two years. Floyd's no lock to play 16 games but in the games he will play he should figure prominently. Plus, he might be motivated to play through some minor injuries this year as he's due a new contract after 2012. He saw Vincent Jackson leave San Diego with a wad of cash in his wallet and he could be eyeing the same path. Floyd is unheralded but good material for Round 10 or later.
My projection: 57 catches, 915 yards, 4 TDs
Early-August ADP: 106th overall
I'd take him: 100th overall

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders: The butt of first-round draft pick jokes is now a legit Fantasy option. Playing in his third year in 2011, Heyward-Bey led the Raiders with 975 yards on 64 catches in effectively 13 games (he played sparingly in two post-bye week games because of believed disciplinary issues). But here's the thing, 45 percent of his catches (29), nearly 47 percent of his receiving yards (456) and three of his four touchdowns came in his final five games, all with Carson Palmer under center. The offense has changed in Oakland but Palmer is still going to lean on Heyward-Bey's size/speed combination (he threw at him 50 times in those final five games last season). With the Raiders expected to play a bunch from behind, Heyward-Bey shouldn't take a step back. Denarius Moore might be the hot name in Oakland, but Heyward-Bey has just as much potential to top the 1,000-yard mark while scoring more often than he did a season ago. Not bad for a late round pick.
My projection: 63 catches, 875 yards, 6 TDs
Early-August ADP: 128th overall
I'd take him: 103rd overall

Randy Moss, WR, 49ers: Admittedly, there isn't much of a secret to Randy Moss in Fantasy. In fact, I'll take him right around where people have been drafting him. But that should underscore the point I'm trying to make: Moss is worth the Round 9 or 10 risk in drafts. It might be a different story if he never sat out a season and was trying to re-establish his career after the washout season where he was on three different rosters. But everything points to Moss playing with a chip on his shoulder, like he has something to prove, like he warrants one more pay day. Moss has been a choir boy in the 49ers facility and a speed demon on the practice field, showing off good moves in camp every day. Remember, this is a man who has set major receiving records and has also made star quarterbacks out of Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper, Kerry Collins and Matt Cassel. Having Smith lob balls to him won't be the biggest challenge in his life. And remember, we're not talking about a big draft pick here, just a middle-round one. He should be well worth the risk.
My projection: 52 catches, 693 yards, six TDs
Early-August ADP: 104th overall
I'd take him: 98th overall

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Coby Fleener, TE, Colts: Everyone knows that Coby Fleener has built-in chemistry with quarterback Andrew Luck from their days together at Stanford, but not many people know that Fleener had a built-in connection with Colts coach Chuck Pagano before the draft. When asked about Fleener before the draft, Pagano told me he loved his skills -- they were obvious when you watched the tape on Luck that Fleener had talent. But Pagano also went on and on about the Patriots tight ends and how they caused him such a headache when he tried to defend against them in the AFC title game when he was the Ravens defensive coordinator. He wished he could create mismatches like those this season. Remember, this is all before Fleener was a Colt. Now Pagano has him. Now Luck keeps him. And now should be the time he loads up on targets and stats considering the rest of the Indy receiving corps is good but not great. He's a tremendous late-round pick whether you need a tight end or not.
My projection: 58 catches, 694 yards, six TDs
Early-August ADP: 143rd overall
I'd take him: 133rd overall

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: Gonzalez is not retired. He is active, healthy and ready to contribute to the Falcons in 2012. This news shouldn't be a shock to you, but the fact is he's getting passed over in drafts like he's already collecting Social Security. Gonzalez actually had his best year as a Falcon in 2011, collecting seven touchdowns on 80 catches for 875 yards. This followed up back-to-back 70-catch, six-score seasons. Why might he go out with a bang? Gonalez plays in an offense that will demand attention to two receivers and one running back. He'll be in single coverage against smaller safeties all the time, including in the red zone. There's no way he'll be as productive as Jimmy Graham and he'll probably pale in comparison to Antonio Gates and Jason Witten, but if you whiff on those guys then Gonzalez should be on your radar starting in Round 9.
My projection: 68 catches, 761 yards, seven TDs
Early-August ADP: 102nd overall
I'd take him: 91st overall

Off the radar: 10 deep sleepers of varying degrees
Vick Ballard, RB, IND Donald Brown isn't built for every down and distance and Ballard is better than Delone Carter.
Juron Criner, WR, OAK Solid offseason could provide early opportunity in three-receiver sets.
Kellen Davis, TE, CHI Six-foot-seven and on the field a bunch, he could repeat as the Bears' receiving TD leader.
Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT A fave of ours coming out of Georgia Tech, Dwyer can snipe reps from Redman with a good camp.
Josh Gordon, WR, CLE Has found time with the first-team offense after joining the Browns in July. Big talent but lacks experience.
Rob Housler, TE, ARI Big, fast tight end could work as the Cardinals No. 2 receiver. Definitely in the Gronk mold.
Lamar Miller, RB, MIA Might be too good to leave on the bench week after week in Miami's thin offense.
Phillip Tanner, RB, DAL DeMarco Murray is injury prone. Felix Jones is injury prone. Do the math.
Tim Tebow, QB, NYJ Oh, come on. Like you don't know he'll do some good things for the Jets this season!
Damian Williams, WR, TEN The more time Kenny Britt misses, the more time Williams can play as Titans' third receiver.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

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Player News
Titans receivers can thrive in YAC with Marcus Mariota's accuracy
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(7/3/2015) The Titans wide receiving corps could gain more yards after the catch this season because of rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and his accurate throws, per ESPN.com.

The Titans were 24th in the league in yards after the catch last season, but with Mariota under center that can all change.

“If you have an accurate quarterback, it allows us to get more yards after that catch,” wide receiver Harry Douglas said. “And that’s one thing that makes a receiver dynamic -- first being able to catch the ball and then being able to do some things with it after you catch it. I feel like [to this point] Marcus has done everything he needs to do to get the ball to his receivers.”


Saints RB Khiry Robinson doesn't feel he's on outside looking in
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(7/3/2015) Saints running back Khiry Robinson might be the least known of his backfield counterparts, but he doesn't feel like the off man out, per ESPN.com.

Robinson knows the team is heavily invested in the likes of Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller, but he's still confident he can thrive in whatever role the Saints put him in.

“I’m the type of person, I’m gonna get what I get and do what I do with it. So whether it’s 20 carries or one carry, I’m gonna do the best of my ability every play,” Robinson said.

Robinson has shown flashes of success during his three years in the league. Injuries played a key role against him last season, which can ultimately put him as the third back on the depth chart. He will use the offseason to continue to improve and challenge his counterparts for playing time.

“I just gotta keep working,” Robinson. “It’s all love in the backfield. We all work together, try to help each other. So I think it’s a good thing we’ve got a full backfield again. So if anybody goes down, we’ve got another player right up there to do the same thing.”


Browns OL Michael Bowie itching to compete for starting spot
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/3/2015) Browns offensive lineman Michael Bowie is not required to report to training camp until the end of July. But never mind that - he's heading out after the last Independence Day firework explodes in the sky.

Bowie is itching to get started. He missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury after starting for Seattle on its Super Bowl title team in 2013. He is seeking to stay in tip-top shape in an attempt to land a starting spot on a Cleveland line that is the strength of the team.

"It's up to them to decide who is the best five," Bowie told the team website. "All I can do is take care of my business. Hopefully I can get a shot. That's what I'm working for."

Bowie participated fully in the offseason program, working mostly with the second team at right tackle. That will likely be the spot at which he competes for a starting job. Incumbent Mitchell Schwartz has not performed particularly well there and Mike Pettine has vowed there will be competition all over the field in camp.


Redskins OLB Ryan Kerrigan nearly recovered from knee surgery
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/3/2015) Redskins outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan appears to be on target to join the team for training camp after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery that prevented him from participating in earlier offseason activities.

Kerrigan, who registered a career-high 13 1/2 sacks a year ago, had the operation to alleviate pain in the area.

"My leg feels really good and I'm glad I got the surgery - not just for football but it makes my everyday life feel better so I'm glad I got it done," he told CSN Washington. "Now it's just a matter of getting stronger and getting into shape."

Kerrigan added that he's been running and now only needs to regain strength to insure his place at training camp.


Texans waive DT Brandon Ivory
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) The Texans waived rookie defensive tackle Brandon Ivory on Thursday, according to ESPN.com

Ivory was arrested on first degree burglary charges in Tuscaloosa, Ala. just one day ago. Ivory's agent Jeff Guerriero said Ivory is not guilty of the charge. 

"I spoke to Brandon he is not guilty and his name will be cleared of all charges," Guerriero said. 


Chargers TE Antonio Gates suspended 4 games for PED use
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Chargers tight end Antonio Gates has been suspended four games for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drugs policy, the team announced. 

It's unknown at this time what drug Gates tested positive for. Gates, in a statement, said he was unaware that he took a banned substance

"In my 12 years in the NFL, I have taken tremendous pride in upholding the integrity of the NFL shield and all that it entails," Gates said. "I have taken extreme care of my body with a holistic approach and I have never knowingly ingested a substance that was banned by the NFL. In an effort to recover from this past season, I used supplements and holistic medicines, and unfortunately, I have now learned that those substances always present a risk because they may contain banned substances even if the ingredient list doesn’t reflect them.

"As an NFL veteran and team leader, I should have done my due diligence to ensure that what I was taking for recovery was within the NFL guidelines. I understand that I am responsible for what is in my body and I have always believed that ignorance is no excuse when it comes to these issues. I take full responsibility for my actions. I’d like to express my sincere apologies to the Chargers, my teammates, coaches, fans and the league who have always supported me and expected and gotten nothing but the highest level of integrity from me."

With Gates out for four games, the Chargers will turn to Ladarius Green as the team's top tight end, though it was expected for Green to continue getting more looks in the passing game. Green is entering the final season of his rookie contract. 

The Chargers expressed disappointment in Gates for his suspension but plans to stick with the longtime veteran through the suspension. 

"We are tremendously disappointed for our team and our fans as well as Antonio, but no more disappointed than Antonio is with himself," the Chargers stated. "Antonio is a member of the Chargers' family and we will continue to support him 100-percent. We have the utmost confidence he will stay in excellent shape for the season and be ready to go when he returns in Week 5. While it's unfortunate to not have him to start the season, we have complete confidence our tight end group will continue to play at a high level."  


Packers' Datone Jones out 1 game for substance-abuse violation
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Packers defensive lineman Datone Jones will be suspended for one game for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy, according to NFL.com. 

Jones will miss Green Bay's season-opener against the Bears. In 2014, Jones totaled 22 tackles and 1 1/2 sacks in 13 games played. 


Cowboys LB Rolando McClain suspended four games for 2015
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) The Cowboys announced that linebacker Rolando McClain has been suspended for the first four games of the 2015 season due to violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy. 

McClain hasn't been able to participate much in offseason workouts due to going under offseason knee surgery. McClain will be eligible to practice in training camp and is expected to be healthy by then. 

"I apologize to my family, the Cowboys organization, my teammates and Cowboys fans for my mistake. I will not break the rules of my profession in the future, and I regret my error," McClain said in a statement, via CSN Bay Area. "I look forward to returning to the field on week 5, when I hope to help my team beat the Patriots.

In 2014, McClain, who had previously retired twice before being traded from the Ravens to the Cowboys, totaled 81 tackles and a sack in 13 games played.


Jets DL Sheldon Richardson suspended four games
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Jets defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson was suspended four games for violating the league's substance-abuse policy, the NFL announced Thursday.

“I apologize for letting down my family, teammates, this organization and the fans," Richardson said in a statement via the Jets, per Fox Sports. "However, words aren't enough. This is something that can only be addressed by how I handle myself from this point on. I don't want this to take away from what the team is trying to accomplish. While I won't be there at the start of the regular season, I will do whatever I can to support my teammates until I'm able to return to the field.”

Richardson, who was a 2013 first-round pick, is entering his third season in the NFL. He was the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2013 and was named to the Pro Bowl in 2014.

He has totaled 84 tackles and 11 1/2 sacks in 32 career games. He also has one safety.


Texans DT Brandon Ivory arrested on burglary charge
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(7/1/2015) Texans defensive tackle Brandon Ivory was arrested Wednesday morning in Alabama and charged with first-degree burglary, according to a Tuscaloosa Police Department report obtained by SportingNews.com.

Ivory and another man were allegedly involved in a home burglary when the two entered the residence by kicking open the back door and then demanding money from the residents. The two stole money and two Ipads from the residence. Ivory and the other suspect were arrested at their apartment shortly after the incident with the stolen money and property.


 
 
 
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