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2012 Draft Prep: Breakouts for Draft Day

Senior Fantasy Writer
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This is where we call our shots, where we pick who will crash through the glass ceiling. When you want a sleeper, you'll look to picks later in the draft. But for most of these breakout picks you'll need a selection no later than the middle rounds. Most of these players should be considered building blocks for your roster with the rest excellent candidates to begin the season on your bench but end up starting for you.

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Go ahead and use this list as a starting point for creating your own group of breakout candidates. By the time you head into your draft you should have a dozen players of your own targeted for your team. Guys you've heard of but have heightened expectations for. It's always better to be informed and prepared to take players you believe will have good seasons rather than not prepared and just know a bunch of names and where they should be picked based on where they've gone in expert drafts, mock drafts, etc. I consider making these lists as a necessary step in having a successful draft.

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens: When you think boring Fantasy quarterbacks, you think Flacco. He's had anywhere from 3,610 to 3,622 passing yards and 20 to 26 total touchdowns over each of the last three years. While fellow fifth-year passer Matt Ryan has reached Top 12 status, Flacco has fallen behind in the eyes of Fantasy owners. But the Ravens should push their aerial game to new levels in 2012 with speed threats Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones going long and tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta working underneath. Where Flacco can make significant improvement is in his accuracy, which has suffered since 2009 and has pushed his yards per attempt number down. If he can get back to averaging over 7.0 yards per attempt and complete more passes while attempting the same amount, the results should be good. Entering a contract year only makes the stakes higher for Flacco, who could land a long-term deal now but might risk it to earn even more cash after a big season. He should be focused on proving he's more than a good game manager who can earn playoff berths, which he's done each of the last four seasons. Throwing two touchdowns in five of his final six games last year (including the postseason) is the kind of sign that suggests he's on his way to breaking out.
My projection: 4,031 yards, 24 TDs, 13 INTs; rushing TD
Mid-August ADP: 127th overall
I'd take him: 114th overall

Donald Brown, RB, Colts: With little competition, solid receiving skills and the chance to see a lot of time on the field, Brown should easily post career-high totals in Indy. He saw most of his 2011 production come in his final six games where he averaged 70.8 total yards per with three touchdowns. Adding Andrew Luck as his quarterback should change how defenses handle Indianapolis going forward, not to mention how the Colts use Brown. But the key here is the rest of the running backs on the roster. Delone Carter and Vick Ballard aren't considered speedsters; they could take some goal-line touches from Brown, but ultimately neither should cut into a 15-touch average for Brown from week to week. With another year under his belt and a new offense that will take advantage of Brown's versatility, a 1,000 total-yard season isn't out of the question. Just check out his preseason Week 1 catch-and-go touchdown scamper to see the kind of explosion he has.
My projection: 832 rush yards, five TDs; 189 receiving yards, TD
Mid-August ADP: 81st overall
I'd take him: 71st overall

Mike Goodson, RB, Raiders: The Raiders made a good move when they sent an offensive lineman to the Panthers for Goodson, who was buried on the team's depth chart following the signing of Mike Tolbert. Immediately, Goodson became not only a quality handcuff for stud runner Darren McFadden, but the reality is that he could prove to be more than that. Goodson has proven to have good hands and great speed as evidenced by the 4.6 rushing average and 16 receptions over three games as a starter with the Panthers in 2010. Bringing that kind of ability to the spot behind McFadden on the Raiders depth chart should not only land him some work from week to week, but potentially make him a breakout sensation when (not if) McFadden gets hurt. In three years as the backup behind McFadden, Michael Bush had anywhere from 690 to nearly 1,400 total yards depending on how much playing time he had. While Goodson might not be the between-the-tackles bruiser Bush is, he's certainly faster and just as versatile. When you find yourself late into your draft, Goodson is a perfect pick to just grab and wait on. His mid-August camp injury shouldn't hold him up from being ready for the season as he was back at practice eight days after the incident.
My projection: 502 rush yards, three TDs, 196 receiving yards
Mid-August ADP: 157th overall
I'd take him: 109th overall

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals: It's a tall order to call a running back who once scored 13 touchdowns in a season a breakout candidate, but the bet here is that Green-Ellis will have the opportunity to beat the career-best 1,093 total yards he had in 2010 with a good amount of scores. That's because the Bengals are looking to Green-Ellis as their primary rusher, which could mean as many as 250 carries (Cedric Benson had 273 carries in 15 games last year). It might not be long before he dominates carries as Bernard Scott, the scatback he'll initially split with, hasn't done much in his three NFL seasons and could get pushed on passing downs because Green-Ellis is a good pass blocker and a good enough receiver out of the backfield. A foot injury in the preseason doesn't seem to have the Bengals' coaches too concerned. The best part is that Green-Ellis is falling to Round 5 or 6 in drafts, meaning that a proven stat producer playing in a more conservative offense is ripe for the taking while other running backs have too many questions.
My projection: 1,049 rush yards, 10 TDs, 95 receiving yards
Mid-August ADP: 51st overall
I'd take him: 43rd overall

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: It's rare to want a running back on the wrong side of 30 coming off a broken leg, but Jackson is an absolute exception. Jackson was a beast before he got hurt last year, averaging just over 137 total yards per start. That's a huge total for him, one that is probably unattainable in 2012, but it's not like it came out of nowhere, as he had averaged at least 80 total yards per start for the previous two years. It wouldn't be a shock to see him get around 100 total yards per game. He's been running great in camp with no setbacks and just got a big contract extension, which suggests he's still a large part of the Bills' plans. That means he won't give up many carries to C.J. Spiller unless his play declines rather rapidly. With only 817 NFL carries under his belt he has more than enough time on his side to be very effective. I've toyed with the idea of making him a Top 12 running back. I haven't done it yet, but it doesn't mean he won't play like one.
My projection: 1,062 rush yards, seven touchdowns, 292 receiving yards, receiving touchdown
Mid-August ADP: 32nd overall
I'd take him: 23rd overall

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Jon Baldwin, WR, Chiefs: Last year was a wash for Baldwin, who messed up his hand in a preseason fight with a teammate and went on to have just one good game. The buzz around Baldwin this offseason was that he had matured and dedicated himself to the Chiefs new offense. It should prove to be a good move: He worked in camp as the De facto No. 1 receiver with Dwayne Bowe holding out and has the opportunity to be a real factor in the passing game. Quarterback Matt Cassel might not have the best arm in the world but he'll recognize Baldwin's 6-foot-4 frame as a mismatch against the league's smaller corners. Once Bowe rejoins the team and gets acclimated, the coverage on Baldwin won't be hard for him to beat. His work in camp should keep him on the field when the season gets going and the price to get him as a bench player on your roster is a bargain.
My projection: 48 catches, 686 yards, five TDs
Mid-August ADP: 145th overall
I'd take him: 129th overall

Eric Decker, WR, Broncos: There's a lot to like about both of the Broncos' big receivers. Demaryius Thomas is the one I'd draft first but I'd chase Decker too. The buzz on Decker started almost right after Peyton Manning signed in Denver as the two met and hit the practice fields quickly. Spending the offseason together paid off as Decker and Manning were already in simpatico when camp kicked off. We suspect Decker could get as many as five catches per game and contend for at least 75 grabs on the year. In five games with Kyle Orton last season Decker averaged 12.1 yards per catch -- he should be able to do better with Peyton. Figure Decker to be a high-volume receiver capable of serving as a borderline No. 2/No. 3 Fantasy option.
My projection: 76 catches, 1,007 yards, six TDs
Mid-August ADP: 73rd overall
I'd take him: 68th overall

Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins: The team's decision to draft Robert Griffin III forced a change in offensive philosophy from Mike Shanahan's previous years in D.C. Griffin offers mobility and good accuracy along with solid strength to get the ball downfield. Garcon's speed is considered a huge asset by Shanahan and wants him to be that deep-ball threat for Griffin. But Garcon can do more than that as he gained a ton of experience working intermediary routes in Indianapolis with Peyton Manning. If there was any question whether Griffin and Garcon were on the same page it was answered in the Skins' first preseason game. That should only be the beginning for Garcon, who put up career-highs last season in catches (70) and receiving yards (946) with the likes of Kerry Collins, Dan Orlovsky and Curtis Painter chucking him the ball. He should do at least slightly better with Griffin.
My projection: 64 catches, 970 yards, six TDs
Mid-August ADP: 93rd overall
I'd take him: 75th overall

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: There might not be a single Fantasy owner who wouldn't want Jones on their roster. After a rookie season that saw him finish with 959 yards and eight touchdowns over 13 games, Jones has proven in short order that he's not only in good rhythm with quarterback Matt Ryan but also the best receiver on the Falcons. A fresh reminder of Jones' abilities came in their first preseason game when he broke tackles on one catch, came back on the next play and broke a screen pass for a decent gain and then caught a touchdown reaching around the back of a defender -- all on the same drive! And this stat is one of my favorites and speaks to Jones' potential: In the nine games in which Jones had at least three catches he averaged over 100 yards per game with eight touchdowns. If you're nervous about what Larry Fitzgerald might do with the lack of good quarterbacks in the desert, Jones is the receiver to go after behind Calvin Johnson. He's got Megatron-type of potential.
My projection: 80 catches, 1,177 yards, 11 TDs
Mid-August ADP: 28th overall
I'd take him: 20th overall

Greg Little, WR, Browns: The Browns added two receivers worth mentioning: Travis Benjamin in April and Josh Gordon in July. But neither player is considered well-rounded or NFL-ready and thus neither is able to unseat Little as the Browns' top receiving threat. His numbers were modest as a rookie, snaring 61 passes for 709 yards and two scores. But he came on strong toward the end of the year, racking up 30 catches and 414 yards along with both scores in his final eight games. That was with some anemic quarterback play, something hopefully he won't have to deal with again with rookie Brandon Weeden joining the Browns. A huge key for Little is to eliminate drops -- if he can do that he should be able to push his receiving average higher while continuing to get at least four receptions per week along with a jump in touchdowns. That makes him a good breakout candidate and a potential No. 3 receiver to start your season.
My projection: 66 catches, 866 yards, six TDs
Mid-August ADP: 128th overall
I'd take him: 95th overall

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Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: Smith should serve as the Ravens No. 1 receiver, a role Anquan Boldin couldn't quite pick up when he came to town a couple of years ago. Last year was a mixed bag for Smith even though his numbers at the end of the year were very nice. But how he got those seven touchdowns and 841 yards were maddening: He had three touchdowns and 152 yards in a dream breakout game against the Rams, only to tally 174 yards and no touchdowns in the four games following. He had one more huge game against the Bengals (165 yards and a score) and was otherwise fair to middlin' as a hamstring injury kept him somewhat grounded. Smith focused on being a better route-runner and a more complete receiver this offseason, working with Flacco in hopes to develop into the go-to receiver for the Ravens. He's over an ankle injury from earlier this month and seems well on his way to meeting his goal. He might be the best No. 3 Fantasy receiver available on Draft Day.
My projection: 70 catches, 1,006 yards, seven TDs
Mid-August ADP: 82nd overall
I'd take him: 65th overall

Jacob Tamme, TE, Broncos: Last year I was high on Rob Gronkowski because I knew he'd be on the field a lot for the Patriots and would get a lot of targets by default. The sentiment is the same for Tamme in Denver: The Broncos will utilize him in a number of ways and keep him on the field as a mismatch problem for opposing defenses. To put it in terms that Peyton Manning would probably agree with, he's Dallas Clark. In fact, when Tamme filled in for Clark with the Colts in 2010 he averaged over six catches per game. With Decker and Demaryius Thomas demanding their own coverage, it's a cinch that Tamme will have some really good opportunities to be a consistent factor.
My projection: 60 catches, 674 yards, seven TDs
Mid-August ADP: 102nd overall
I'd take him: 96th overall

Off the radar: 10 deeper breakouts of varying degrees
Randall Cobb, WR, GB He's expected to work as a slot receiver and play as a speedy little mismatch type.
Jared Cook, TE, TEN Good player with lots of upside but buried in a deep position in Fantasy.
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF Not the prettiest, but if Manningham and Moss can take coverage from him he should have a good year.
Leonard Hankerson, WR, WAS Really the only big receiver in Washington. He's healed from a bad hip injury.
James Jones, WR, GB If Greg Jennings isn't ready for the season (or gets traded), Jones should have a chance to score big.
Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ Contract-year player who starts hot then has fizzled out. If he doesn't fizzle he'll get paid.
Andrew Luck, QB, IND Love his potential, think he's worth a late pick in standard drafts. No one is sleeping on him.
Bilal Powell, RB, NYJ Might be a quick hook for Greene if he struggles early. If so Powell seems like best candidate to take over.
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, ATL Goes without saying he should improve on 2011 numbers. Could go bananas if Turner misses playing time.
Jerome Simpson, WR, MIN The good: Vikings love his speed and he should play a lot. The bad: Suspended first three games.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

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Player News
Embattled Brandon Spikes pleads guilty to leaving scene of crash
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:35 pm ET) Former Patriots and Bills linebacker Brandon Spikes has pleaded guilty to leaving the scene of a recent car crash and has received a fine and year of probation, per WBZ, which is further reporting that he has lost his license and will be forced to attend a driver's safety class.

Spikes has lost far more than his license. He has lost his livelihood, having been cut by New England for hitting another car and abandoning his vehicle on the highway. He later told the police that he had hit a deer.

No other teams have been rumored to be targeting Spikes for the coming season.


Terrelle Pryor ready to embrace new role with Browns
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(6/30/2015) Terrelle Pryor once declared that he could not play football if he could not play quarterback.

Reality has since set in.

Pryor has been cut twice and is now playing on a Cleveland Browns team desperate for a quarterback, but apparently not desperate enough to give him a shot. He is instead embracing what he is calling a "slash-player" role.

"I'm going to give (it) a chance," he told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "I just want to play football. I'm a playmaker, and I believe if I can touch the ball, I can go to the house, especially if I have space. This should definitely open up some opportunities."

Pryor has already taken the first step by contacting Steelers receiving stud Antonio Brown and making plans to work out with him and Randy Moss so they can teach him the nuances of the position.

He also figures there's another reason he's ahead of the game.

"The thing that helps me is that I played quarterback, and I know what the quarterback wants," Pryor said.


Lions new DT Haloti Ngata too busy to think about new contract
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(6/30/2015) Defensive tackle Haloti Ngata had his contract in mind in his last days with the Ravens, but he's too busy to think about it now that he's been traded to the Lions.

Ngata admitted that he suspected a deal could take place.

"The closer we got to free agency, I thought it could be a possibility," he told Monday Morning Quarterback. "It didn't surprise me ... since we weren't getting closer to any kind of contract stuff, I just figured there were a lot of things that could happen. I definitely started to have a trade in my mind as a possibility."

Ngata added that he's not thinking about a contract extension with Detroit.

"I'm just trying to get to know my teammates, get my playbook down, and my technique and terminology," he said.


Vikings RB Jerick McKinnon claims he'd pick himself in Fantasy
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(6/30/2015) Vikings running back Jerick McKinnon doesn't have a Fantasy football team, but if he did...

"If ... I could take myself, I would," he told the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Never mind that Adrian Peterson has returned to the backfield. Never mind that Peterson has traditionally not yielded many carries to teammates. In 2012, for instance, he totaled 348 of his team's 401 rushing attempts.

The Vikings, however, are expected to use a more balanced approach in 2015. And McKinnon, who flashed as a starter with Peterson sidelined last season, is feeling dandy after undergoing lower back surgery in December.

"Two hundred percent," he declared in regard to his health. "If there is a 300, I feel 300. It's all good."

McKinnon averaged 4.8 yards per carry a year ago, which buoyed his confidence.


Lions RB Joique Bell predicting at least a 1,200-yard season
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(6/30/2015) Lions featured back Joique Bell is coming off a knee injury that has sidelined him throughout the offseason and has also been dealing with an Achilles issue. But his confidence is not hurt at all.

Bell has made a rather lofty prediction for 2015, particularly for a guy that has never rushed for more than 860 yards in a season. He claims he will exceed that by plenty.

"I'm going to rush for over 1,200 yards," he told MLive.com. "That's the minimum. If I do less than that, I'll be surprised. I'll be disappointed. Anything more than that, I wouldn't be surprised at all."

Bell averaged a mediocre 3.9 yards per carry in both of the last two years.


Report: LB Kyle Knox gets four-game suspension from NFL
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(6/29/2015) Free agent linebacker Kyle Knox will get a four-game suspension from the league, NFL beat writer Howard Balzer reported. 

Knox as released by New Orleans in the offseason. Dallas signed him in June and released him three days later. 

Knox has played in 16 games for New Orleans and Jacksonville over the last two seasons.


Eagles sign John Moffitt, release Cole Manhart
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(6/29/2015) As expected, the Eagles signed center John Moffitt to a one-year contract on Monday, per Philly.com.

Moffitt was a third-round draft pick in 2011 and played two years for Seattle. He was traded to Denver and retired early in the 2013 season. 

He was arrested in 2014 on assault and drug charges, which were later dropped. 

To make room, the Eagles released undrafted rookie free agent Cole Manhart


Chiefs' Jeremy Maclin off to best start ever with Alex Smith
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(6/29/2015) New Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin has hit it off with quarterback Alex Smith during the offseason. 

Maclin came to Kansas City from Philadelphia in the offseason, and his communication with Smith has been more than either player expected. 

“I don’t think I’ve ever been off to a better start with a particular quarterback in my life,” Maclin said, per KCChiefs.com.

Offensive coordinator Doug Pederson, like head coach Andy Reid, brought the Philadelphia offense to Kansas City, which has helped Maclin's transition. 

“He’s only a couple years removed from our system,” Pederson said. “We’ve changed some things since he’s been in the offense, but he’s such a smart, savvy, veteran guy that he’s picked up on what we’re doing really fast. He and Alex have sort of developed that continuity right away.”


Redskins' David Amerson looks to win back starting job
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(6/29/2015) After a sub-par 2014 season, Redskins cornerback David Amerson is no longer expected to be a starter. Bashaud Breeland and free agent pickup Chris Culliver have knocked Amerson down to a nickelback role. 

Amerson lost the job after a season in which he indecisive and lacked aggression, he admitted to the Washington Post. Amerson didn't record an interception and had just seven pass breakups. 

“At the end of the day, that’s all it comes down to: just making plays. That’s the thing I felt like I was missing last year: being that big play-maker, game-changer,” Amerson said. “I basically had been that all my life, but it was different for me last year. It was unusual for me. So I need to get back into my groove and just find my swag. … Like I said, I’ve been that all my life, and always had that – I wouldn’t call it a gambling type of mentality – but knowing when to go and make that play, when to step up. It’s something I think a lot of people naturally have in them, and knowing when to bring it out. I just have to have that mindset.”


QB Russell Wilson reiterates desire to stay with Seahawks
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(6/29/2015) Quarterback Russell Wilson, whose contract status has developed into one of the offseason's major storylines, said that despite the issue with his deal, he still wants to remain with the Seahawks. 

"The rest will work out. The contract will work itself out. I'm excited about it and excited to hopefully be a Seattle Seahawk for a really, really long time," Wilson said during a football camp. "So, that's the goal."

Wilson is slated to play out the final year of his rookie contract in 2015, making $1.54 million, a figure wildly below market value for a player who has been to back-to-back Super Bowls. 


 
 
 
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