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2012 Draft Prep: Busts to avoid on Draft Day

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Think about the last time you were disappointed about something. Maybe you were promised a five-star steak dinner and instead got a torched piece of meat. Maybe you were set up on a blind date with a "perfect 10" only to find out it was more like a "perfect 1.0."

Or maybe you drafted a football player with high expectations only to cut them from your Fantasy team because they weren't doing well enough to help your team win. Let's try to avoid these specific kinds of disappointments (can't help you on the chow or social life, sorry).

There are two kinds of busts in my mind: Players who simply won't do as well as they did the year prior and players who won't live up to their preseason expectations. Typically I have no problems with the players who won't live up to expectations -- I'll concede they're good players, I just won't draft them where everyone else is drafting them. The players who I believe can't be counted on as they have in the past I tend to not draft at all. Either way, both types are busts I just don't really want on my teams.

Before you head into your draft room, make sure you know which players you know you're nervous about. Then don't draft them unless it's a ridiculous value for your team. I always feel very good about my drafts when my players are made up of guys I don't "settle" for or draft with haste. You should do the same thing.

Here are 11 players I'm leery of this season.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins: Griffin won't be a bad quarterback by any stretch. Between his arm and legs there will be weeks where he puts up some solid numbers. But it won't be every week even with the additions the Redskins made to their receiving corps. Here's the bigger problem I have: On average he's the 12th quarterback getting picked, ahead of established veterans Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler and Matt Schaub. He's getting picked in Round 8 more often than not, way too high for a passer with a sleek frame, a questionable offensive line and no experience. A lot of people see Griffin and think he's the next Cam Newton because he's an excellent runner and has a cannon for an arm. He's not. Newton is a beast of a man with better-than-advertised accuracy. Griffin isn't as big and could have trouble adapting to the pro game like Newton did as a rookie. I have no problem taking Griffin if he makes it to Round 10 in your league. Maybe Round 9 is OK too. But before guys with 4,300-yard, 25-touchdown potential? Don't let media hype force you into a mistake in the middle of your draft.
My projection: 3,985 passing yards, 20 TDs, 17 INTs, 407 rushing yards, four rushing TDs
Mid-August ADP: 81st overall
I'd take him: 109th overall

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Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: I happen to like Bush's chances to contribute to Fantasy rosters, but not dominate them. Start with the team he's on: The Dolphins' housecleaning at receiver will make it easy for defenses to cover the pass, even if Miami utilizes the up-tempo, no-huddle approach like they might. Bush should be a bigger part of the passing game but in turn will likely lose the carries he had last year. Tack on a rookie quarterback leading the Dolphins' charge and defenses will key in on Bush. Also factor in Bush's health, which he had until the end of last season. He's never been one to stay healthy and last season could be considered an anomaly. I think the Bush we saw in 2011 is gone and the Bush from 2006-10 will show up. Draft accordingly.
My projection: 653 rush yards, four rushing TDs, 323 receiving yards, two receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 100th overall
I'd take him: 113th overall

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: Greene's got a new tutor in Tony Sparano, who has had success running the ball in this league, and has the motivation of a big pay day if he can put up a monster season. But for three years we've waited for Greene to break out and we're still waiting. Through three years and 546 carries Greene owns 10 rushing touchdowns and 10 runs of 20-plus yards. With Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight waiting patiently on the bench, the Jets might run out of patience with Greene if he stumbles early on. Moreover, the Jets' O-line is iffy and the potential for Tim Tebow to steal touchdowns inside the 10-yard line could further put a crimp in Greene's plans. If expectations are for Greene to match last season's numbers then there's not going to be much disappointment, but if we're hoping for a massive season there could be trouble.
My projection: 924 rush yards, six rushing TDs, 134 receiving yards
Mid-August ADP: 55th overall
I'd take him: 68th overall

Roy Helu, RB, Redskins: Helu's Fantasy value has trended like Facebook stock. After last season we couldn't help but "like" him as a budding No. 2 Fantasy rusher. But then during the offseason the Redskins brought back veteran Tim Hightower. Helu then found himself in a three-headed battle for reps with Hightower and fellow second-year back Evan Royster. It soon became evident that Helu wasn't running first-string, Royster was. From there he developed tendinitis in his knee and said it hurts him more in mid-August than it did last year. At best it seems as if Helu will land passing downs work to begin the season while Royster and Hightower work the tough yards. That's a good role for Helu after he caught 49 passes for 379 yards last season. But it's going to take injuries to the other rushers for him to get more work. And even if Helu makes a start and gets 20 touches one week, Mike Shanahan could pull the rug on him (and us) and make a change without warning like he did a few times last season. No one's spending a sixth or seventh-round pick on Helu now, and justifiably so.
My projection: 494 rushing yards, two rushing TDs, 212 receiving yards, one TD
Mid-August ADP: 100th overall
I'd take him: 113th overall

C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: Spiller the football player is a gem -- that was evident last season when he ran for 446 rush yards, caught for 187 yards and totaled four touchdowns in six games without Fred Jackson. But Jackson is back and if there's one thing we learned before Spiller broke out, it's that the Bills have no problem giving him the shaft and letting Jackson be the primary rusher. When Jackson was healthy last season Spiller averaged 2.1 carries and 1.5 catches per game. Expect him to pitch in more for the Bills this season but not to the point where he can be anything better than a spot starter for a week or two. If Jackson misses playing time again for any reason then Spiller would become a dynamo, but that's not the case when you're drafting.
My projection: 653 rush yards, four rushing TDs, 323 receiving yards, two receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 95th overall
I'd take him: 100th overall

Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: Last year's breakout campaign came with a price: An injured knee that required surgery during the offseason. The rehab from said surgery, which the Cardinals never totally disclosed, kept him sidelined through early August. By the time he returned from the problem, so too did rusher Ryan Williams, whose injury opened the door for Wells to put up 1,047 yards and 10 touchdowns in the first place. Now a split is expected and with Wells' injury history he's no sure thing to stay healthy much less average 107 rush yards per game like he did in his first three 2011 contests. If the decision is to draft Wells in Round 6 or 7 or pick up Williams in Round 8 or 9, we'd rather take Williams since he might end up lasting longer despite his return from a torn patella tendon.
My projection: 702 rushing yards, five TDs, 88 receiving yards
Mid-August ADP: 76th overall
I'd take him: 85th overall

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Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys: After missing six games last season and all of this preseason with hamstring injuries, Austin's legs can't be trusted. What's even more nerve-wracking is that Austin is a tremendous deep-ball receiver, and if his speed is compromised by his hammies then he's not going to be a dominator. And while he's scored at least seven touchdowns in each of his last three seasons his receiving average has sunk by at least a yard per catch over that time. After his hamstring acted up on him in Week 2 he never finished with more than 74 yards in a game. For a guy with two 100-yard games since November 2010 after having five in 2009 and four in his first seven games in 2010, his legs have to be in great shape. Hard to envision Austin being a reliable No. 2 Fantasy receiver, especially with Dez Bryant expected to take a step forward this season.
My projection: 975 receiving yards, six receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 59th overall
I'd take him: 84th overall

Kenny Britt, WR, Titans: By now everyone knows that Britt won't get picked where his talent and role in the Titans' offense would normally dictate. Not only is a suspension likely stemming from a July drunk driving arrest at an Army base, but he's also coming off three knee surgeries since last September when he tore his ACL. Both of Britt's knees went under the knife and so it's no surprise that through mid-August he's had no reps in camp with the offense. He's a tremendous risk not only because of his health but because of the looming suspension, not to mention any other boneheaded thing he might do this season. If you draft him, you must be willing to hold on to him not only through his suspension but also until his knees are able to get him up and running. It's too bad because he's a gifted receiver -- check that -- was a gifted receiver.
My projection: 44 catches, 593 yards, four TDs
Mid-August ADP: 118th overall
I'd take him: 183rd overall

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: When Johnson went down with two separate serious hamstring injuries last year without contact from an opponent, I cringed both times. When Johnson had offseason knee surgery, I winced. When Johnson pulled up lame in an early training camp drill and missed a week with a groin strain, I became disappointed. And now when I see people take Johnson with a second-round pick in drafts, I question what they're thinking. I'll never tell you Johnson isn't talented -- I'm a proud University of Miami alum and have supported Johnson since before you knew who he was. But I'm not sure we can count on him for a full season and I don't love choosing receivers I can't count on for a full slate. Johnson's never had more than nine touchdowns in a single season (eight scores three times) and has topped 1,300 yards twice, plus the Texans have morphed into a balanced offense that will lean on the ground game a little more than most evolving squads. I am absolutely for taking Johnson in Round 3 and can't help but think he'll have a good season in helping Houston make a playoff run. I just wouldn't take him over younger, healthier receivers in Round 1 or 2.
My projection: 1,132 receiving yards, eight TDs
Mid-August ADP: 24th overall
I'd take him: 36th overall

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Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders: I didn't like Moore before he got hurt but his injuries only underline my concerns. When I see Denarius Moore, I see DeSean Jackson lite. A small, speedy receiver who will either win you or cost you a Fantasy matchup from week to week. That much was seen in his rookie year: He had 100 yards or a touchdown in 6 of 13 games and converted a first down or a touchdown on 26 of 33 receptions. But he caught less than 50 percent of his targets and totaled a combined 111 yards in the seven games he didn't have 100 yards or a score. He's gotten off to a rough start in camp this summer with hamstring injuries dating back to minicamp keeping him off the field. Hamstring injuries can linger and for a receiver who relies on his speed and isn't consistent to begin with, that's not a good look for Fantasy. I would much rather take Darrius Heyward-Bey considering how he finished last season.
My projection: 58 rush yards, rushing TD, 641 receiving yards, five receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 112th overall
I'd take him: 130th overall

Fred Davis, TE, Redskins: It goes without saying that Davis is a talented tight end who broke out last year to the tune of nearly 800 yards and three touchdowns, but putting him in the same category as Vernon Davis or Jermichael Finley is a little ridiculous. The addition of Robert Griffin III doesn't necessarily mean more passing in Washington -- they've done plenty of that since Shanahan has come to the Capitol. But what it does mean is a change in philosophy as the Redskins offense reverts to a plan that better suits Griffin. That means more downfield passing to the sidelines, not to the middle of the field, which the Skins addressed in free agency. RG3 leaned on his wideouts at Baylor, as tight ends totaled 53 receptions for 612 yards and eight touchdowns in his last two seasons. That happens to be less than 10 percent of his completions and not quite 14 percent of his passing touchdown total. Tack on some blocking duties that might be necessary for Davis given the state of the Redskins offensive line (Shanahan has to protect the quarterback investment after all) and Davis' ceiling doesn't seem to be very high. He might end up with 800 yards and a handful of touchdowns again -- but in 16 games instead of 12 he played last year.
My projection: 742 receiving yards, five receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 89th overall
I'd take him: 129th overall

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Player News
Raiders not expected to re-sign DT Pat Sims
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:23 pm ET) Raiders defensive tackle Pat Sims saw his playing time decrease in 2014, and the team is unlikely to re-sign him, reports ESPN.com. Sims played 37 percent of the defensive snaps and finished with 25 tackles and no sacks.

Sims, 29, spent the past two seasons with Oakland after a five-year run in Cincinnati.


Packers not expected to make offer to WR Jarrett Boykin
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(10:29 am ET) Packers wideout Jarrett Boykin is set to become an unrestricted free agent, and it's unlikely the team even makes him an offer, reports the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Boykin lost the No. 3 receiver job this season to rookie Davante Adams, who outperformed any Packers rookie wideout since James Jones in 2007.

Boykin finished the year with the same number of catches as drops, three, the paper noted.

If Randall Cobb re-signs with Green Bay, the Packers will enter 2015 with Jordy Nelson, Cobb and Adams as their three primary wideouts.


Jaguars MLB Paul Posluszny says he'll be 100 percent for OTAs
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(9:16 am ET) Jaguars middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, who tore his pectoral muscle and missed the last nine weeks of the season, told the team's website he's recovering well from surgery and will be 100 percent for the offseason program starting in mid-April.

"That shouldn't be an issue for us," he said.

Posluszny posted six straight years of 100-plus tackles until making 69 in seven games this season.


Tamba Hali says he wants to be back in Kansas City in 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:45 am ET) Outside linebacker Tamba Hali once again expressed an interest in returning to the only team he's ever played for in the Chiefs.

"At this stage of my career, it isn’t about money," Hali said. "The Kansas City Chiefs have taken care of me, financially. I have some good people in my corner that have positioned me to be able to live a lifestyle a lot of people won’t be able to live. So I’m not one of those guys who gets all bent out of shape over money. I love playing the game, I want to win a championship in Kansas City."

Hali totaled 59 tackles including six sacks and three forced fumbles in 16 games. It was his lowest sack total since 2008.

"If money is going to be a hindrance in doing that, we’ll find a way … we’ve got to get Justin (Houston) paid and get our guys, Dee Ford, ready to be playing at a higher level … but we’ve got to get Houston paid, I’m optimistic about that … that’s something we’ve got to get done."


Report: Seahawks' Richard Sherman finishes elbow treatment
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman said Tuesday his elbow is improving daily and he's finished with treat, according to Ed Werder of ESPN. 

According to Werder, Sherman tore ligaments in his elbow in the NFC Championship game against the Packers. Sherman was seen grimacing in pain throughout the game after suffering the injury.

The Seahawks are currently 1-point underdogs for the Super Bowl, according to VegasInsider.com.


Seahawks GM: Russell Wilson's contract to present roster challenge
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) The Seahawks are preparing to re-sign quarterback Russell Wilson. With Wilson making under $1 million per year in his first three seasons, Seattle has been able to give other players contract extensions. Now, general manager John Schneider knows it will be tough on the team to get Wilson at the hefty price tag.

"It presents challenges, there is no question," Schneider said. "We haven’t sat down with his representatives. We are still going to be drafting young players and playing young players, so we might not be able to dip into free agency like you may want to here and there or compensate somebody else that you want to compensate that is already on your team, but just the fact that we’re going to continue to keep drafted players and playing young players should help us compensate for whatever level of compensation (for Wilson’s contract) is."

Wilson threw for 3,475 yards in 2014 with 20 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He also ran for 849 yards and six touchdowns.


Cardinals' Drew Stanton says he'll be healthy by April
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Cardinals quarterback Drew Stanton is on the road to recovery. The 30-year-old quarterback is in the middle of a rehab program to be able to get back on the field this spring

"I’ll be full strength by time we start offseason program," Stanton said at Tuesday’s Super Bowl Media Day. "I don’t really need to do anything now so just kinda let my body rest to get away from the game a little bit, spend time with my family and get refreshed for next season."

Stanton said he would have needed one more week before trying to give it a go in the playoffs with the knee injury.

"I was going to need at least another week to have a shot," Stanton said. "That was my hope. So, I was trying to find ways to get ready to go, talking to the training staff and talking to guys (about) what I can be doing when we would get back from that flight from Carolina. It didn’t work out unfortunately, but it was a difficult situation the way everything ended. At the same time, I think that the building blocks are starting to fall into place for us." 


Bengals OC Hue Jackson still believes in QB Andy Dalton
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson missed quarterback Andy Dalton's Pro Bowl performance Sunday. Despite hearing about his 9 of 20 passing performance, Jackson said Tuesday to ESPN he still has faith in Dalton to get the job done.

"I'm not going to stop believing in him," Jackson said. "He's going to have to prove otherwise. I believe this guy has it in him. My job, my charge as I've said before is to have him do it on a consistent basis."

Jackson added he's seen the great Dalton and thinks it's something to build on.

"I see in the first three games of the season a guy that played with moxie and tenacity and aggressiveness, and who played extremely well down that 3-0 stretch," Jackson said.


Seahawks NT Brandon Mebane expected to be full go by April
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Seahawks starting nose tackle Brandon Mebane said the surgery to fix his torn hamstring went well, and he should be full go by April, reports the Seattle Times. Mebane's season was cut short after nine games. He finished with 20 tackles and a sack.

DT Kevin Williams could retire if Seahawks win
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Seahawks defensive tackle Kevin Williams did not rule out retiring if his team beats the Patriots in Super Bowl 49, reports the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Williams, 34, is a six-time Pro Bowler and five-time First-Team All-Pro.

He played in every game this season, recording 22 tackles, three sacks and two pass breakups.


 
 
 
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