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2012 Draft Prep: Busts to avoid on Draft Day

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Think about the last time you were disappointed about something. Maybe you were promised a five-star steak dinner and instead got a torched piece of meat. Maybe you were set up on a blind date with a "perfect 10" only to find out it was more like a "perfect 1.0."

Or maybe you drafted a football player with high expectations only to cut them from your Fantasy team because they weren't doing well enough to help your team win. Let's try to avoid these specific kinds of disappointments (can't help you on the chow or social life, sorry).

There are two kinds of busts in my mind: Players who simply won't do as well as they did the year prior and players who won't live up to their preseason expectations. Typically I have no problems with the players who won't live up to expectations -- I'll concede they're good players, I just won't draft them where everyone else is drafting them. The players who I believe can't be counted on as they have in the past I tend to not draft at all. Either way, both types are busts I just don't really want on my teams.

Before you head into your draft room, make sure you know which players you know you're nervous about. Then don't draft them unless it's a ridiculous value for your team. I always feel very good about my drafts when my players are made up of guys I don't "settle" for or draft with haste. You should do the same thing.

Here are 11 players I'm leery of this season.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins: Griffin won't be a bad quarterback by any stretch. Between his arm and legs there will be weeks where he puts up some solid numbers. But it won't be every week even with the additions the Redskins made to their receiving corps. Here's the bigger problem I have: On average he's the 12th quarterback getting picked, ahead of established veterans Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler and Matt Schaub. He's getting picked in Round 8 more often than not, way too high for a passer with a sleek frame, a questionable offensive line and no experience. A lot of people see Griffin and think he's the next Cam Newton because he's an excellent runner and has a cannon for an arm. He's not. Newton is a beast of a man with better-than-advertised accuracy. Griffin isn't as big and could have trouble adapting to the pro game like Newton did as a rookie. I have no problem taking Griffin if he makes it to Round 10 in your league. Maybe Round 9 is OK too. But before guys with 4,300-yard, 25-touchdown potential? Don't let media hype force you into a mistake in the middle of your draft.
My projection: 3,985 passing yards, 20 TDs, 17 INTs, 407 rushing yards, four rushing TDs
Mid-August ADP: 81st overall
I'd take him: 109th overall

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Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: I happen to like Bush's chances to contribute to Fantasy rosters, but not dominate them. Start with the team he's on: The Dolphins' housecleaning at receiver will make it easy for defenses to cover the pass, even if Miami utilizes the up-tempo, no-huddle approach like they might. Bush should be a bigger part of the passing game but in turn will likely lose the carries he had last year. Tack on a rookie quarterback leading the Dolphins' charge and defenses will key in on Bush. Also factor in Bush's health, which he had until the end of last season. He's never been one to stay healthy and last season could be considered an anomaly. I think the Bush we saw in 2011 is gone and the Bush from 2006-10 will show up. Draft accordingly.
My projection: 653 rush yards, four rushing TDs, 323 receiving yards, two receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 100th overall
I'd take him: 113th overall

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: Greene's got a new tutor in Tony Sparano, who has had success running the ball in this league, and has the motivation of a big pay day if he can put up a monster season. But for three years we've waited for Greene to break out and we're still waiting. Through three years and 546 carries Greene owns 10 rushing touchdowns and 10 runs of 20-plus yards. With Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight waiting patiently on the bench, the Jets might run out of patience with Greene if he stumbles early on. Moreover, the Jets' O-line is iffy and the potential for Tim Tebow to steal touchdowns inside the 10-yard line could further put a crimp in Greene's plans. If expectations are for Greene to match last season's numbers then there's not going to be much disappointment, but if we're hoping for a massive season there could be trouble.
My projection: 924 rush yards, six rushing TDs, 134 receiving yards
Mid-August ADP: 55th overall
I'd take him: 68th overall

Roy Helu, RB, Redskins: Helu's Fantasy value has trended like Facebook stock. After last season we couldn't help but "like" him as a budding No. 2 Fantasy rusher. But then during the offseason the Redskins brought back veteran Tim Hightower. Helu then found himself in a three-headed battle for reps with Hightower and fellow second-year back Evan Royster. It soon became evident that Helu wasn't running first-string, Royster was. From there he developed tendinitis in his knee and said it hurts him more in mid-August than it did last year. At best it seems as if Helu will land passing downs work to begin the season while Royster and Hightower work the tough yards. That's a good role for Helu after he caught 49 passes for 379 yards last season. But it's going to take injuries to the other rushers for him to get more work. And even if Helu makes a start and gets 20 touches one week, Mike Shanahan could pull the rug on him (and us) and make a change without warning like he did a few times last season. No one's spending a sixth or seventh-round pick on Helu now, and justifiably so.
My projection: 494 rushing yards, two rushing TDs, 212 receiving yards, one TD
Mid-August ADP: 100th overall
I'd take him: 113th overall

C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: Spiller the football player is a gem -- that was evident last season when he ran for 446 rush yards, caught for 187 yards and totaled four touchdowns in six games without Fred Jackson. But Jackson is back and if there's one thing we learned before Spiller broke out, it's that the Bills have no problem giving him the shaft and letting Jackson be the primary rusher. When Jackson was healthy last season Spiller averaged 2.1 carries and 1.5 catches per game. Expect him to pitch in more for the Bills this season but not to the point where he can be anything better than a spot starter for a week or two. If Jackson misses playing time again for any reason then Spiller would become a dynamo, but that's not the case when you're drafting.
My projection: 653 rush yards, four rushing TDs, 323 receiving yards, two receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 95th overall
I'd take him: 100th overall

Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: Last year's breakout campaign came with a price: An injured knee that required surgery during the offseason. The rehab from said surgery, which the Cardinals never totally disclosed, kept him sidelined through early August. By the time he returned from the problem, so too did rusher Ryan Williams, whose injury opened the door for Wells to put up 1,047 yards and 10 touchdowns in the first place. Now a split is expected and with Wells' injury history he's no sure thing to stay healthy much less average 107 rush yards per game like he did in his first three 2011 contests. If the decision is to draft Wells in Round 6 or 7 or pick up Williams in Round 8 or 9, we'd rather take Williams since he might end up lasting longer despite his return from a torn patella tendon.
My projection: 702 rushing yards, five TDs, 88 receiving yards
Mid-August ADP: 76th overall
I'd take him: 85th overall

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Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys: After missing six games last season and all of this preseason with hamstring injuries, Austin's legs can't be trusted. What's even more nerve-wracking is that Austin is a tremendous deep-ball receiver, and if his speed is compromised by his hammies then he's not going to be a dominator. And while he's scored at least seven touchdowns in each of his last three seasons his receiving average has sunk by at least a yard per catch over that time. After his hamstring acted up on him in Week 2 he never finished with more than 74 yards in a game. For a guy with two 100-yard games since November 2010 after having five in 2009 and four in his first seven games in 2010, his legs have to be in great shape. Hard to envision Austin being a reliable No. 2 Fantasy receiver, especially with Dez Bryant expected to take a step forward this season.
My projection: 975 receiving yards, six receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 59th overall
I'd take him: 84th overall

Kenny Britt, WR, Titans: By now everyone knows that Britt won't get picked where his talent and role in the Titans' offense would normally dictate. Not only is a suspension likely stemming from a July drunk driving arrest at an Army base, but he's also coming off three knee surgeries since last September when he tore his ACL. Both of Britt's knees went under the knife and so it's no surprise that through mid-August he's had no reps in camp with the offense. He's a tremendous risk not only because of his health but because of the looming suspension, not to mention any other boneheaded thing he might do this season. If you draft him, you must be willing to hold on to him not only through his suspension but also until his knees are able to get him up and running. It's too bad because he's a gifted receiver -- check that -- was a gifted receiver.
My projection: 44 catches, 593 yards, four TDs
Mid-August ADP: 118th overall
I'd take him: 183rd overall

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: When Johnson went down with two separate serious hamstring injuries last year without contact from an opponent, I cringed both times. When Johnson had offseason knee surgery, I winced. When Johnson pulled up lame in an early training camp drill and missed a week with a groin strain, I became disappointed. And now when I see people take Johnson with a second-round pick in drafts, I question what they're thinking. I'll never tell you Johnson isn't talented -- I'm a proud University of Miami alum and have supported Johnson since before you knew who he was. But I'm not sure we can count on him for a full season and I don't love choosing receivers I can't count on for a full slate. Johnson's never had more than nine touchdowns in a single season (eight scores three times) and has topped 1,300 yards twice, plus the Texans have morphed into a balanced offense that will lean on the ground game a little more than most evolving squads. I am absolutely for taking Johnson in Round 3 and can't help but think he'll have a good season in helping Houston make a playoff run. I just wouldn't take him over younger, healthier receivers in Round 1 or 2.
My projection: 1,132 receiving yards, eight TDs
Mid-August ADP: 24th overall
I'd take him: 36th overall

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Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders: I didn't like Moore before he got hurt but his injuries only underline my concerns. When I see Denarius Moore, I see DeSean Jackson lite. A small, speedy receiver who will either win you or cost you a Fantasy matchup from week to week. That much was seen in his rookie year: He had 100 yards or a touchdown in 6 of 13 games and converted a first down or a touchdown on 26 of 33 receptions. But he caught less than 50 percent of his targets and totaled a combined 111 yards in the seven games he didn't have 100 yards or a score. He's gotten off to a rough start in camp this summer with hamstring injuries dating back to minicamp keeping him off the field. Hamstring injuries can linger and for a receiver who relies on his speed and isn't consistent to begin with, that's not a good look for Fantasy. I would much rather take Darrius Heyward-Bey considering how he finished last season.
My projection: 58 rush yards, rushing TD, 641 receiving yards, five receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 112th overall
I'd take him: 130th overall

Fred Davis, TE, Redskins: It goes without saying that Davis is a talented tight end who broke out last year to the tune of nearly 800 yards and three touchdowns, but putting him in the same category as Vernon Davis or Jermichael Finley is a little ridiculous. The addition of Robert Griffin III doesn't necessarily mean more passing in Washington -- they've done plenty of that since Shanahan has come to the Capitol. But what it does mean is a change in philosophy as the Redskins offense reverts to a plan that better suits Griffin. That means more downfield passing to the sidelines, not to the middle of the field, which the Skins addressed in free agency. RG3 leaned on his wideouts at Baylor, as tight ends totaled 53 receptions for 612 yards and eight touchdowns in his last two seasons. That happens to be less than 10 percent of his completions and not quite 14 percent of his passing touchdown total. Tack on some blocking duties that might be necessary for Davis given the state of the Redskins offensive line (Shanahan has to protect the quarterback investment after all) and Davis' ceiling doesn't seem to be very high. He might end up with 800 yards and a handful of touchdowns again -- but in 16 games instead of 12 he played last year.
My projection: 742 receiving yards, five receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 89th overall
I'd take him: 129th overall

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Player News
Packers' Davon House unlikely to return in regular season
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:03 am ET) Packers cornerback Davon House is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season while recovering from an injury to his right shoulder blade, the Journal Sentinel reports.

"I have the mind-set, I'll be back tomorrow," House said. "Will I be back tomorrow, most likely not. I can't give a time frame. Hopefully, sooner than later. Talking to Doc (team physician Patrick McKenzie), we're going to take it week by week, day by day. But they said my improvement is where we want it to be. The good news was that I was able to start running today, which was great."

House may be able to return during the postseason, so the team has decided not to place him on injured reserve at this time.


Jaguars DT Roy Miller will need surgery for meniscus injury
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Jaguars defensive tackle Roy Miller will require surgery on his meniscus injury, the Florida Times-Union reports.

Miller sustained the injury during the team's Week 15 loss to the Ravens and was inactive Thursday. He'll end the season with 30 tackles and one sack.


Titans kicker Ryan Succop hits both field goals Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans kicker Ryan Succop hit both his field goals Week 16 against the Jaguars.

Succop was tested early, but managed to convert on a 50 yard attempt. Things got easier late in the contest, as Succop hit from 23 yards. He added one extra point. Succop will look for more Week 17 against the Colts. 


Titans RB Leon Washington makes an impact Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans running back Leon Washington made an impact Week 16 against the Jaguars.

Washington wasn't a huge factor in the running the game, gaining 11 yards on four carries. He excelled in the passing game, however. Washington hauled in seven catches, gaining 62 yards. He finished second on the team in receiving for the game. Washington was the only player on the team to score, pulling down an 8 yard touchdown pass on the team's first drive. 

He'll look for more Week 17 against the Colts. 


Titans WR Kendall Wright leads the way Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans wideout Kendall Wright led the team in receiving Week 16.

Wright came into the game questionable due to a broken hand, but was able to excel despite the issue. He only hauled in four passes, but was able to connect on some deep passes. In the fourth quarter, Wright pulled down a 39 yard reception. He finished with 73 yards on five targets.

Wright will look for more Week 17 against the Colts. 


Titans RB Shonn Greene receives seven carries Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans running back Shonn Greene carried the ball just seven times Week 16 against the Jaguars.

Greene took a backseat to Bishop Sankey during the contest, though neither did all that much on the ground. Greene gained 28 yards, good for a 4.0 yards per carry average. Greene was not involved in the passing game, and did not receive a target.

He'll look for more Week 17 against the Colts. 


Titans RB Bishop Sankey fails to do much Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans running back Bishop Sankey failed to do much Week 16 against the Jaguars.

Sankey led all Titans runners, carrying the ball 14 times for 44 yards. He was held to just 3.1 yards per carry. Sankey had a hard time breaking anything loose, with his longest carry going for just 8 yards. He wasn't all that involved in the passing game either, coming up with one reception for 9 yards.

Sankey will hope for more Week 17 against the Colts. 


Titans QB Charlie Whitehurst tosses one score on Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans quarterback Charlie Whitehurst tossed one touchdown on Thursday against the Jaguars.

Whitehurst completed 24 of 35 passes for 287 yards and a touchdown. He did not turn the ball over during the contest. Whitehurst looked to attack Jacksonville down the field, averaging 8.2 yards per completion. This sometimes came back to bite him, as he wound up taking four sacks. Whitehurst's only score came on the team's first drive. On the 13th play of the drive, Whitehurst found running back Leon Washington for the 8 yard score. Whitehurst also picked up 12 rushing yards on three attempts.

Depending on the team's injury situation at quarterback, Whitehurst may be in line to start next week against the Colts.


Jaguars K Josh Scobee scores three points vs. Titans
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Jaguars kicker Josh Scobee was limited to just three extra points in his team's 21-13 win over the Titans in Week 16.

It was the third time this season Scobee wasn't called upon to attempt a field goal. Thursday's win marked just the second time this season Scobee kicked three extra points in a game. He'll travel to Houston to face the Texans in Week 17.


Jaguars WRs quiet in Week 16 win vs. Titans
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Jaguars wide receivers Marqise Lee led his team with four receptions and 65 yards in his team's 21-13 win over the Titans in Week 16.

The Jaguars managed to pick up just 124 receiving yards on the day and Lee was responsible for more than half of that total while seeing six targets. Allen Hurns was also targeted six times, picking up 26 yards on three receptions. Cecil Shorts caught just two of his seven targets for 15 yards but also completed a nine-yard pass.

Tight end Marcedes Lewis managed just six yards on two receptions but did secure the team's only receiving touchdown on a four-yard strike at the end of the first half. The Jaguars will hit the road to face the Texans in the season finale next Sunday.


 
 
 
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