Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2012 Draft Prep: RBs with breakdown potential

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

For several years we've done some serious studying on when a running back will break down. We began on our mission because we thought it was myth that a running back who turned 30 was suddenly ripe for disaster. That proved to be the case -- it is a myth. The number of career carries combined with a consistent heavy workload over a period of time along with the impact of major leg injuries better signaled when a back would slow down, not his age.

But the criteria could be changing. As you probably know, there's a major change in how teams view running backs across the league. They are bailing out on them much sooner than they used to for fear of catching runners with no tread left on their proverbial tires. So in the past we'd see several backs with well over 2,000 career carries but now there is only one back -- Steven Jackson -- over that threshold. Willis McGahee is second closest with 1,901 carries (this includes the postseason).

FREE Draft Kits!
Mike Tolbert
Get everything you need to dominate on Draft Day in one convenient place with our Downloadable Draft Kit, complete with projections, rankings and outlooks for 2013!
Download your Draft Kit now!

So the new "warning level" on career carries should definitely come down, and perhaps receptions should play a role. Granted, a catch and a carry don't quite wear on a running back the same way since there's a little less bumping on a reception than on a carry between the tackles. But work is work.

The "warning level" on number of years shouldering the workload should also come down. Hardly any running backs get eight straight seasons with at least 250 carries per year -- again Jackson is the only guy closest to that mark after seven years in a row with a big total.

Major injuries to running backs remain relevant for obvious reasons.

So here's the latest theory on when a running back could be due to break down:

• The number of consistent heavy workload seasons are basically irrelevant. If a player regularly gets 250 carries per season, it's just part of the total number of carries he gets. We're throwing out that part.

• Major injuries, especially lower-body injuries, matter and speed up the slow-down process.

• Wear and tear based on the total number of touches is still a major factor. Carries count as normal, but the total amount of receptions divided by three will be added to the number of carries to create a total "touch evaluation number." The thinking here is that on average a running back suffers the same amount of wear and tear on three receptions as he does one carry. Because running backs are catching the ball a little more often than in the past, this part of the study will be subject to change in the future, but for now it's at least easy enough to make sense of. Running backs whose total evaluation number is at least 2,100 will be considered at-risk for a breakdown. For a back with a major injury, their at-risk number is more like 1,900.

We strongly feel age has nothing to do with when a back is set to slow down. To prove it, we've included some 29-year old runners in this year's study. Based on our criteria, some of them have at least two seasons left before any sort of regression in production takes place.

Career carries Career rec. Total evaluation # Major injury Week 1 age
Cedric Benson 1,595 113 1,633   29 (30 in Dec.)
Ronnie Brown 1,199 190 1,262 30
Frank Gore 1,682 300 1,782 29
Fred Jackson 1,367 244 1,448   31
Steven Jackson 2,157 372 2,281   29
Brandon Jacobs 1,198 88 1,227   30
Willis McGahee 1,901 186 1,963 30
Darren Sproles 389 267 478   29
Michael Turner 1,506 54 1,524   30
DeAngelo Williams 1,008 135 1,053   29

Steven Jackson sticks out like a sore thumb on the list. It bears repeating that he's the only active player in the NFL with 2,000-plus carries and is turning 30 next July. And if he stays healthy he'll also top 2,400 career carries this season, which is our old warning level for workhorse backs to break down. I ran into Jackson this summer and he looked nothing like a worn down old football player, so he deserves the benefit of the doubt this season. It's next season where I could see him sputtering.

Willis McGahee is another risk, but that's nothing new for him. After a major knee injury ended his college career, McGahee missed his rookie season and has generally been considered an injury concern every year. But he's been productive in six of his nine seasons. The Broncos drafted Ronnie Hillman with the idea of infusing him in the Denver offense but he's missed plenty of camp with hamstring issues. McGahee continues to plow right along. He should still be effective in his 10th NFL season.

Fred Jackson's number might look a little confusing. He has 817 career carries in the NFL but had another 550 in the United Indoor Football League. Should they count the same as NFL carries? We think so -- while the players in the UIFL aren't the same kind of hard hitters as in the NFL, there is no out of bounds, so he got hit on every single carry. It counts.

Looking ahead

Because our study is breaking some new ground we thought we'd take a gander at running backs who are starting to accumulate carries and be considered for the study in a few seasons. These are not guys to worry about breaking down because of their career workloads but rather just to keep your eyes on starting this season.

Career carries Career rec. Total evaluation # Major injury Week 1 age
Matt Forte 1,056 236 1,135   26
Chris Johnson 1,198 195 1,263   26
Maurice Jones-Drew 1,498 285 1,593   27
Marshawn Lynch 1,160 143 1,208   26
Adrian Peterson 1,477 140 1,524 27
Ray Rice 1,063 279 1,156   25

Perhaps the names who aren't on this list are the ones Fantasy owners should feel better about. Arian Foster (710 carries, 135 catches), LeSean McCoy (652 carries, 171 catches), Darren McFadden (553 carries, 116 catches), Ahmad Bradshaw (811 carries, 129 catches), Jamaal Charles (508 carries, 118 catches) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (557 carries, 31 catches) are all established veterans without a heavy history of work. It never hurts to target fresher running backs since the chances of them slowing aren't as high as those who have already put in the time.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Seahawks DT Jesse Williams to have kidney surgery Thursday
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/26/2015) Seahawks defensive tackle Jesse Williams is scheduled to have kidney surgery on Thursday, the team announced. 

This surgery will take place 10 days after he was diagnosed with Papillary Type 2 cancer. 

"He’s a battler all the way," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. "He’s been up against it, too. He’s fought some difficult fights, and he’s fighting another one - maybe the fight of a young man’s life.

"We’ll be there with him and hope to pull him through.”


Seahawks' Lemuel Jeanpierre with first team, not Patrick Lewis
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/26/2015) The Seahawks worked in a new first-team center on Tuesday and it wasn't the one projected to fill Max Unger's vacant spot.

According to ESPN.com, Lemuel Jeanpierre worked with the first team during Tuesday's OTA practice. Patrick Lewis, who many projected to be the front-runner for the job, worked in as Jeanpierre's backup.

After practice, coach Pete Carroll said Jeanpierre earned the opportunity to begin OTAs as the first-team center.

Jeanpierre has been with the Seahawks since 2011 and Lewis joined the squad a year ago. Jeanpierre has 11 career starts and Lewis has four, all of which happened with Seattle in 2014.  


Falcons RB Devonta Freeman opens OTAs as starter
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/26/2015) The Falcons opened OTAs with running back Devonta Freeman getting the nod with the first team, according to ESPN.com

Freeman is entering his second year in the NFL, though there is a lot of buzz surrounding rookie draft choice Tevin Coleman out of Indiana. Though Freeman is the technical starter for now, it should be an open competition between these two and Antone Smith this August. 


Chiefs OLB Justin Houston a no-show to OTAs
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/26/2015) Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston did not show up to Tuesday's organized team activity practice, according to the Kansas City Star

Houston is reportedly seeking a long-term deal and would prefer not to sign the franchise tender the Chiefs are offering. The Chiefs placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on Houston earlier this offseason. 

The Chiefs have until July 15 to work out a long-term deal with the star outside linebacker. If they don't, teams could offer Houston deals with the Chiefs having the right to match. And if the Chiefs chose not to match, they would receive two first-round picks from the team signing Houston away. 

Houston totaled 22 sacks a year ago. Teammate Tamba Hali said that Houston has been working out and would like to practice with the Chiefs if it was possible. 

“Every two or three weeks, we talk,” Hali said. “He's working, he's working his tail off. Like any player, he wants to be here. But we know our league is a business, and we've got to allow that process to work itself out. He wants to be here. He's missing it.”


Titans RB Shonn Greene absent from OTAs
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/26/2015) Titans running back Shonn Greene did not attend Tuesday's OTA practice, according to The Tennessean

"Obviously we'd like to have him here," Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt said. "But he's a veteran. He knows how to get himself prepared."

Greene told the Titans, Whisenhunt said, that he's unable to attend at the moment because he is the caretaker of a child. Greene ran for 392 yards and two touchdowns during the 2014 season. 


Eagles G Evan Mathis doesn't show up to OTAs
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/26/2015) For the second consecutive season, Eagles guard Evan Mathis was a no-show to OTAs, according to ESPN.com. 

Mathis has received permission to seek a trade though nothing has materialized. After failing to report to OTAs a year ago, Mathis showed up to the Eagles facility on time. 

Mathis is entering his 11th NFL season and fifth with the Eagles. 


Browns RB Isaiah Crowell opens OTAs as starter
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/26/2015) Isaiah Crowell opened Tuesday's OTA practice as the Browns' starting running back, according to ESPNCleveland.com. 

Crowell, an undrafted free-agent a year ago, and Terrance West split first-team reps. Crowell totaled 607 yards and eight touchdowns while West ran for 673 yards and four. Regardless of who the starter is, the Browns are likely to use a rotation at running back. 


Chiefs OLB Tamba Hali underwent minor knee procedure
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/26/2015) Chiefs outside linebacker Tamba Hali said he had a minor procedure performed on his knee this offseason, according to the Kansas City Star

Hali said the procedure was done to clean out some loose cartilage. 

It's not anything that'e expected to keep Hali off of the field. A year ago, Hali recorded 59 tackles and six sacks. 


Raiders QB Derek Carr (finger) has yet to start throwing
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/26/2015) Raiders quarterback Derek Carr did not participate in any passing drills during Tuesday's OTA practice, according to the Bay Area News Group. 

Carr has an injured right ring finger that he's not contemplating surgery for. He was able to take snaps and make pitches during practice. Though he's missing the reps now, Carr is expected to be back by the start of training camp. 


Seahawks CB Richard Sherman practices fully on Tuesday
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/26/2015) Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman did not have any limitations during Tuesday's OTA practice. 

According to the Seattle Times, Sherman, who suffered an elbow injury during this past postseason, was able to practice fully

There was a chance Sherman would need Tommy John surgery, though he decided to let the injury heal on its own. In 2014, Sherman recorded 57 tackles and four interceptions. 


 
 
 
Rankings