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2012 Draft Prep: Busts to avoid on Draft Day

Senior Fantasy Writer
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A big key to drafting your Fantasy team is finding the right value. It's why Average Draft Position is so important. We all want great players, but you have to find them in the appropriate spot.

For example, last year I listed Peyton Hillis as a bust. I didn't expect Hillis to struggle as much as he did, but I didn't want to draft him based on his ADP. He was drafted as the No. 14 running back in Round 3, but he finished No. 39 at his position in 2011.

Some other busts we nailed last year were Brandon Lloyd, Dwayne Bowe and Marcedes Lewis. All of them underperformed based on their preseason ADP.

You're going to see me reference the word "value" a lot about busts in the space below, but hear me out. Some of these players will perform well in 2012, but it's where you draft them this year that will determine if you got them with the right selection.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers: I love Newton. I want him on all my Fantasy teams if possible. But there's no way I'm spending a first-round pick on him. There's too much risk involved for the second-year quarterback. We all know Newton was amazing last season in winning Rookie of the Year honors. He had 11 games with at least 22 Fantasy points and he combined for 4,700 total yards and 35 touchdowns. He had 14 rushing touchdowns, which will be difficult to duplicate, but he should cut down on his 23 turnovers. The reason he's on this list is because of where he's being drafted. If you can get Newton in the middle to the end of the second round or later then you're in great shape. But there are better running backs, receivers and maybe the two elite tight ends who should be drafted ahead of Newton coming into this year.
My projection: 4,211 passing yards, 24 TDs, 13 INTs; 400 rushing yards, nine TDs
Mid-August ADP: 12th overall
I'd take him: 20th overall

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys: The good news for Romo is he's healthy heading into the season. We wish we could say the same thing about his receiving corps. Miles Austin (hamstring), Dez Bryant (knee) and Jason Witten (spleen) are all banged up, with Austin and Witten looking like potential bust candidates as well. The Dallas offensive line is also a mess, and the Cowboys lost Laurent Robinson in free agency to a big contract in Jacksonville. Now, Romo should still be considered a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback, but he should not be selected in Round 4. He's a safer pick in Round 5 or later, and I would take him after Matt Ryan, which isn't the case based on ADP. If Romo's ADP falls prior to your Draft Day he might turn into great value because eventually Austin, Bryant and Witten will get healthy -- or so we hope. But Romo's value in Round 4 is slightly high given all the quality quarterbacks coming into the year.
My projection: 4,321 passing yards, 33 TDs, seven INTs, 66 rushing yards, one TD
Mid-August ADP: 45th overall
I'd take him: 53rd overall

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Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos: Manning is another quarterback being drafted ahead of Ryan, which is a mistake. This isn't 2004 when Manning was the best quarterback in the NFL. He's coming back after sitting out for a season following multiple neck surgeries at 36 and playing with a new team for the first time in his career. Now, like Romo, he should present great value if he falls past Round 4 into Round 5 or later. But based on his value now, with the risk that one serious hit to his neck could end his career, he could end up hurting your team more than helping it. We all hope Manning can return at 100 percent, and we love his receiving corps with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Jacob Tamme, but you need to draft a capable No. 2 quarterback (put Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler and Matt Schaub on your draft board) in case Manning goes down.
My projection: 4,565 passing yards, 33 TDs, 12 INTs; 22 rushing yards
Mid-August ADP: 46th overall
I'd take him: 56th overall

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: The positives for Jones-Drew are he should remain a workhorse, even with the emergence of Rashad Jennings, he led the NFL in rushing last year despite no offseason work and limited preseason action and has at least 1,600 total yards and seven touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. The negative for Jones-Drew is his holdout, and we all remember what happened to Chris Johnson last year. Jones-Drew also could be headed for a breakdown even if he reported on time since he has 954 carries since 2009, which is the most in the NFL. There's no reason to draft Jones-Drew in Round 1, and I wouldn't take him until Round 3. Of course, there's little chance he falls that far unless his holdout lasts right up until the regular season, and Jennings might present better value at No. 139 overall (Round 11). New coach Mike Mularkey said he will ease Jones-Drew back into action when he does report, so you might not get tremendous production early in the year from Jones-Drew depending on when he shows up.
My projection: 1,355 rushing yards, seven TDs; 43 catches, 301 yards, one TD
Mid-August ADP: 11th overall
I'd take him: 30th overall

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: The hope is Peterson is ready for Week 1 at 100 percent. The reality is Peterson might have rushed back too soon. He suffered a devastating knee injury in Week 16 last year when he tore multiple ligaments, and it's basically a miracle he's back on the field in training camp. But while Peterson has said his goal is to play Week 1, the Vikings seem to be taking a more cautious approach, which is smart. Peterson is definitely worth drafting in Round 3 if he falls that far, but Fantasy owners will reach for him based on name recognition and past production alone. He has double digits in touchdowns in all five years of his career, and prior to last season he never had fewer than 1,500 total yards. But he did all of that production on two good knees, and the Vikings have a capable backup in Toby Gerhart to handle the rushing duties while Peterson works his way back to full strength. Gamble on Peterson if you want in Round 2, but that's too steep a price to pay for a running back in his situation.
My projection: 1,213 rushing yards, eight TDs; 34 catches, 312 yards, one TD
Mid-August ADP: 23rd overall
I'd take him: 33rd overall

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Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: Here's a basketball analogy I like to use for Turner. The Miami Heat were among the best fast-break teams in the NBA last season with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade running the floor. But imagine what they would look like if the near 300-pound Eddy Curry was their starting center? He would just slow things down, and that's what Turner could do to this high-powered passing attack with Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White. This isn't to suggest Turner is going to disappear. He'll fall into 1,100 rushing yards and double digits in touchdowns. But you'd rather draft him in Round 3 in standard leagues since he could struggle in Atlanta's new pass-happy offense with speedy Jacquizz Rodgers playing behind him. Keep in mind that last year we saw Turner struggle mightily in the second half of the season with only one 100-yard game and three touchdowns from Week 9-16. He's headed for a decline this year, and he's not someone you want to reach for in Round 2.
My projection: 1,195 rushing yards, 11 TDs; nine catches, 80 yards
Mid-August ADP: 24th overall
I'd take him: 31st overall

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals: Green-Ellis scored 24 touchdowns the past two years in New England, including 11 last season. But that was with one of the best offenses in the NFL. He struggled to run the ball for the Patriots in 2011 at just 3.7 yards per carry. What you have to assume is Green-Ellis will replace the production from the previous starter in Cincinnati, Cedric Benson, who ran for 1,143 yards and six touchdowns on 3.8 yards per carry. He had 134 Fantasy points last season, which ranked No. 23 at running back (two points ahead of Green-Ellis). He also had just six games with double digits in Fantasy points, and the Bengals aren't a great running team. Green-Ellis also is expected to share time with Bernard Scott, and he's dealt with a foot problem in training camp. Factor in four games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and Green-Ellis should remain just a plodder with little upside. He's someone you should settle for in Round 5 or later as a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 running back.
My projection: 1,002 rushing yards, eight TDs; 14 catches, 98 yards
Mid-August ADP: 53rd overall
I'd take him: 59th overall

Wes Welker, WR, Patriots: Owners in PPR leagues should look away because Welker is definitely worth a second-round pick in those formats. He has at least 111 catches in four of the past five years, and he should be above 100 catches again. The concern for me with Welker is in standard leagues since his touchdown total last year (nine) will be hard to duplicate. The Patriots changed two things from last season in adding Brandon Lloyd and bringing back offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has a more downfield attack. The last time Welker played for McDaniels was 2008 when he had 111 catches for 1,165 yards and three touchdowns. Welker is currently being drafted in Round 3, which isn't much of a stretch, but it's the receivers he's being selected ahead of that's a problem. I'd rather have Greg Jennings, Roddy White, A.J. Green and Jordy Nelson than Welker, even though he's in a contract year. The Patriots are loaded on offense, and the addition of Lloyd and McDaniels could hurt Welker.
My projection: 111 catches, 1,395 yards, five TDs
Mid-August ADP: 26th overall
I'd take him: 32nd overall

Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers: Holdouts don't do much for me, especially guys in a new offense. Wallace has yet to run a play for new offensive coordinator Todd Haley, and that could hurt him once he does report. On top of that, the Steelers made a significant commitment to Antonio Brown, which could leave Wallace in a sour mood, much like what happened to DeSean Jackson last year. Wallace also was a huge disappointment in the second half last season. He had just one game with double digits in Fantasy points after Week 9, and he didn't have 100 yards after Week 7. Brown looks like the better Fantasy receiver based on his value at No. 68 overall (Round 6), and I'm not sold on Roethlisberger having a great year with all his little ailments (torn rotator cuff and ankle). The later Wallace reports, the better his value could be if he lands in the right round, but you also run the risk of injury based on a lack of conditioning being away from his team all offseason.
My projection: 68 catches, 1,184 yards, five TDs
Mid-August ADP: 51st overall
I'd take him: 58th overall

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Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: Here's what worries me about Jackson: he got paid. I tend to stay away from players like Jackson who beg for a new contract and leave a team for big money elsewhere. Does he deserve to get paid? Absolutely. Does that mean he will succeed in his new home? Probably not. To give you an idea of some receivers who have left a good situation and not panned out look at Sidney Rice in Seattle, Santonio Holmes with the Jets and Anquan Boldin in Baltimore. All were better with their previous team, and the same could happen with Jackson. He gets a downgrade in quarterback from Philip Rivers to Freeman, and Jackson's production should decline. Jackson put up standout production for the Chargers, but he's been inconsistent. In 2011, Jackson had 60 catches for 1,106 yards and nine touchdowns. But he managed just six games with double digits in Fantasy points since five touchdowns came in two games. I don't see Jackson having many big games like that, and his production will tail off. Don't be surprised if he's more of a No. 3 Fantasy receiver this year than a guaranteed starter in all leagues.
My projection: 68 catches, 1,122 yards, six TDs
Mid-August ADP: 66th overall
I'd take him: 73rd overall

Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers: Finley is a solid tight end. I'm just not sure he's elite. He finished as a Top 5 tight end last year with 55 catches for 767 yards and eight touchdowns. But he made his season with his Week 3 performance against the Bears with seven catches for 85 yards and three touchdowns. That was 26 Fantasy points, but he averaged just 6.1 Fantasy points over his other 15 games. If you project that over a full season he had just 98 Fantasy points, which would have made him the No. 12 tight end. He also had just four games with double digits in Fantasy points, and last year was his first season playing 16 games. He's dealt with a concussion and a quad injury this preseason, and the Packers have a ton of targets to spread the ball around. I'd still draft Finley as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end, but I'm not sure I'd reach for him on Draft Day.
My projection: 48 catches, 632 yards, seven TDs
Mid-August ADP: 65th overall
I'd take him: 76th overall

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Player News
Report: Giants Jason Pierre-Paul hurt in fireworks accident
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(7/5/2015) Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul reportedly hurt his hand in a Fourth of July fireworks accident in Miami, according to the Daily News

The paper reports that the injury is not considered career-threatening, but that varying accounts of what happened have been reported. The Giants have not confirmed nor denied the incident. 

The Giants applied the franchise tag to Pierre-Paul this offseason, but the 26-year-old has not yet signed it as he seeks a long-term deal, meaning that he technically is not under contract. 

Pierre-Paul had 53 tackles and 12 1/2 sacks last year for New York. 


Report: Torn pectoral sidelines Vikings CB Josh Robinson
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/4/2015) The Vikings secondary took a hit last month when cornerback Josh Robinson sustained a partially torn pectoral muscle, a league source has told ESPN.

The nickel back played in 690 snaps last season and was expected to battle several others for playing time. The injury could sideline him from training camp and land him on the PUP list.


Report: Packers' Andrew Quarless arrested on gun charges
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(7/4/2015) Packers tight end Andrew Quarless was arrested for firing a gun twice in Miami on Saturday, per the Miami New Times.

Quarless was involved in a fight at South Beach and fired the gun into the ground. 


Titans receivers can thrive in YAC with Marcus Mariota's accuracy
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(7/3/2015) The Titans wide receiving corps could gain more yards after the catch this season because of rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and his accurate throws, per ESPN.com.

The Titans were 24th in the league in yards after the catch last season, but with Mariota under center that can all change.

“If you have an accurate quarterback, it allows us to get more yards after that catch,” wide receiver Harry Douglas said. “And that’s one thing that makes a receiver dynamic -- first being able to catch the ball and then being able to do some things with it after you catch it. I feel like [to this point] Marcus has done everything he needs to do to get the ball to his receivers.”


Saints RB Khiry Robinson doesn't feel he's on outside looking in
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(7/3/2015) Saints running back Khiry Robinson might be the least known of his backfield counterparts, but he doesn't feel like the off man out, per ESPN.com.

Robinson knows the team is heavily invested in the likes of Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller, but he's still confident he can thrive in whatever role the Saints put him in.

“I’m the type of person, I’m gonna get what I get and do what I do with it. So whether it’s 20 carries or one carry, I’m gonna do the best of my ability every play,” Robinson said.

Robinson has shown flashes of success during his three years in the league. Injuries played a key role against him last season, which can ultimately put him as the third back on the depth chart. He will use the offseason to continue to improve and challenge his counterparts for playing time.

“I just gotta keep working,” Robinson. “It’s all love in the backfield. We all work together, try to help each other. So I think it’s a good thing we’ve got a full backfield again. So if anybody goes down, we’ve got another player right up there to do the same thing.”


Browns OL Michael Bowie itching to compete for starting spot
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/3/2015) Browns offensive lineman Michael Bowie is not required to report to training camp until the end of July. But never mind that - he's heading out after the last Independence Day firework explodes in the sky.

Bowie is itching to get started. He missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury after starting for Seattle on its Super Bowl title team in 2013. He is seeking to stay in tip-top shape in an attempt to land a starting spot on a Cleveland line that is the strength of the team.

"It's up to them to decide who is the best five," Bowie told the team website. "All I can do is take care of my business. Hopefully I can get a shot. That's what I'm working for."

Bowie participated fully in the offseason program, working mostly with the second team at right tackle. That will likely be the spot at which he competes for a starting job. Incumbent Mitchell Schwartz has not performed particularly well there and Mike Pettine has vowed there will be competition all over the field in camp.


Redskins OLB Ryan Kerrigan nearly recovered from knee surgery
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/3/2015) Redskins outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan appears to be on target to join the team for training camp after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery that prevented him from participating in earlier offseason activities.

Kerrigan, who registered a career-high 13 1/2 sacks a year ago, had the operation to alleviate pain in the area.

"My leg feels really good and I'm glad I got the surgery - not just for football but it makes my everyday life feel better so I'm glad I got it done," he told CSN Washington. "Now it's just a matter of getting stronger and getting into shape."

Kerrigan added that he's been running and now only needs to regain strength to insure his place at training camp.


Texans waive DT Brandon Ivory
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) The Texans waived rookie defensive tackle Brandon Ivory on Thursday, according to ESPN.com

Ivory was arrested on first degree burglary charges in Tuscaloosa, Ala. just one day ago. Ivory's agent Jeff Guerriero said Ivory is not guilty of the charge. 

"I spoke to Brandon he is not guilty and his name will be cleared of all charges," Guerriero said. 


Chargers TE Antonio Gates suspended 4 games for PED use
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Chargers tight end Antonio Gates has been suspended four games for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drugs policy, the team announced. 

It's unknown at this time what drug Gates tested positive for. Gates, in a statement, said he was unaware that he took a banned substance

"In my 12 years in the NFL, I have taken tremendous pride in upholding the integrity of the NFL shield and all that it entails," Gates said. "I have taken extreme care of my body with a holistic approach and I have never knowingly ingested a substance that was banned by the NFL. In an effort to recover from this past season, I used supplements and holistic medicines, and unfortunately, I have now learned that those substances always present a risk because they may contain banned substances even if the ingredient list doesn’t reflect them.

"As an NFL veteran and team leader, I should have done my due diligence to ensure that what I was taking for recovery was within the NFL guidelines. I understand that I am responsible for what is in my body and I have always believed that ignorance is no excuse when it comes to these issues. I take full responsibility for my actions. I’d like to express my sincere apologies to the Chargers, my teammates, coaches, fans and the league who have always supported me and expected and gotten nothing but the highest level of integrity from me."

With Gates out for four games, the Chargers will turn to Ladarius Green as the team's top tight end, though it was expected for Green to continue getting more looks in the passing game. Green is entering the final season of his rookie contract. 

The Chargers expressed disappointment in Gates for his suspension but plans to stick with the longtime veteran through the suspension. 

"We are tremendously disappointed for our team and our fans as well as Antonio, but no more disappointed than Antonio is with himself," the Chargers stated. "Antonio is a member of the Chargers' family and we will continue to support him 100-percent. We have the utmost confidence he will stay in excellent shape for the season and be ready to go when he returns in Week 5. While it's unfortunate to not have him to start the season, we have complete confidence our tight end group will continue to play at a high level."  


Packers' Datone Jones out 1 game for substance-abuse violation
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Packers defensive lineman Datone Jones will be suspended for one game for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy, according to NFL.com. 

Jones will miss Green Bay's season-opener against the Bears. In 2014, Jones totaled 22 tackles and 1 1/2 sacks in 13 games played. 


 
 
 
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