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Dear Mr. Fantasy: The Week 1 overreaction

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Deep breaths, everyone.

The best thing you can do for yourself after the first weekend of NFL action is slow down for a minute. It's only reasonable after what just happened. In a few days' time, you went from pouring over the same old data week after week to suddenly having all new data on every single player in the game. That's a lot of information to take in all at once.

And the hard part is sorting it all out.

We still don't know much. We may know more than we did a week ago, but any opinions that have changed since then are based on events that took place over a period of four 15-minute quarters. That's not much to go on.

Sure, it's OK to have suspicions and even to act on some of them, but you're likely to do more harm than good by jumping to conclusions. Why take the plunge if you can just toe the water?

Saying we now know Adrian Peterson is ready to contribute again is one thing. You're not declaring him the best running back in Fantasy and trading Aaron Rodgers for him; you're just putting him back in your lineup and entertaining the idea of dropping Toby Gerhart. Reasonable enough. But saying we now know Michael Turner is useless in the Falcons' new offense is probably making too much of too little.

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It may ultimately prove true, and certainly you have probable cause to bench him right now. But what if he just wasn't a big part of the game plan last week? The Chiefs' secondary was in disrepair, after all. Cutting the player you drafted to be your second-best running back this early in the season is just asking for trouble.

I mean, Andrew Hawkins isn't worth that much.

What do you think of this trade in a points-per-reception league: Stevan Ridley and Kevin Smith for Doug Martin? -- Victor Bustamante (via Facebook)

SW: I'm pretty sure I like it for the guy getting Martin. My judgment is warped somewhat because Ridley and Smith are both coming off outstanding Week 1 performances, but when I weigh what I do know against what I don't, the trade works out in the other side's favor.

First, Martin. Based on the Ray Rice comparisons that began in training camp and persisted throughout the preseason, I already suspected he'd carry the load for the Buccaneers and catch a fair number of passes out of the backfield. His performance in Week 1 only validated those suspicions. The concern with him, as with any rookie, was that the speed of the NFL game could expose some previously undetected shortcoming. Now, with a strong debut behind him, that concern is significantly lessened.

So he's a capable running back with a signifcant role in a scoring format well suited for his abilities. OK, then. That's what I know.

What do I know about Ridley and Smith? For the former, I know he can succeed in the Patriots offense if given the opportunity. I just saw it happen. What I don't know is if the Patriots' reconciliation with the running game was just a one-week thing. And even if it wasn't, will it be an every-week thing? To some degree, all the pass-heavy offenses we see in the NFL today exist because of what the Patriots (under current offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, mind you) did in 2007, so by changing course now, they'd be abandoning the revolution they started just when it's becoming the accepted model of success. I don't see it happening. They may run more than they used to now that they have the proper personnel for it, but the passing game is still the focus of their offense.

As for Smith, I know he does a fine job both running and catching the ball when he's the only backfield option the Lions have, but when he has to split touches with Mikel Leshoure, as will be the case when Leshoure returns from a suspension in Week 3, I don't know that he'll even be usable in Fantasy. I suspect he will at times just because the Lions have grown to trust him with Leshoure and Jahvid Best sidelined by injuries over the last two seasons, but on a weekly basis, I don't see it. With the Matthew Stafford-Calvin Johnson connection in its prime right now, the Lions live and die by the pass. They don't offer enough carries to sustain two backs.

Most Added Players (as of 9/12)
Player % increase
1. Kevin Ogletree, WR, Cowboys 48
2. Stephen Hill, WR, Jets 35
3. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins 27
4. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers 17
5. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers 17
6. Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens 15
7. James Jones, WR, Packers 13
8. Dexter McCluster, WR, Chiefs 12
9. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos 10
10. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears 9

So even though Ridley and Smith are capable running backs, their opportunities to contribute down the line are uncertain. OK, then. That's what I don't know.

One scenario I try my best to avoid in Fantasy Football is the guessing game. Once in a while is fine, but if every week is the same thing -- two similar running backs with two similar matchups -- I too often find myself saying "oops."

If you have a shot at what seems like a sure thing, you take it. Let someone else play the guessing game with Ridley and Smith.

Should I chance starting either Kevin Ogletree or Alfred Morris in my flex spot? -- @SailorJerry81 (via Twitter)

SW: Ah, yes. You just picked them up, and now you're wondering if you can use them. I suppose that's the natural progression.

My belief is you'll have occasions to start both. I'd say Ogletree has more lasting appeal than Morris, who still has to contend with Evan Royster and Roy Helu. Sorry, but I don't think a 3.4-yard-per-carry performance, which is what Morris accomplished in Week 1, is enough to win Mike Shanahan's undying loyalty. My general belief in these situations is that the talent wins out in the end, and the talent in this case is Helu. If that transition comes to pass, be it in Week 3 or Week 13, Morris will be useless in Fantasy while Ogletree will still be the third receiver in a pass-oriented offense.

But our emphasis right now is on Week 2, and for Week 2, I like Morris. He's facing the Rams, who ranked second-to-last against the run last year. Granted, this year's Rams could be different, but they didn't get a fair test against the run in Week 1, when they faced Matthew Stafford and the pass-happy Lions. Somehow, some way, a Shanahan-led team is going to get its yards on the ground, and since Morris seems to have established himself as the go-to guy for now, I think he's fine as a second running back or flex option.

The problem for Ogletree is that as long as Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are healthy, you won't be able to trust him as more than a bye-week replacement. He is third on the Cowboys' depth chart, after all. Granted, the Cowboys throw enough to give their the third and fourth receiving options a handful of big games over the course of the year, but you'll never be able to predict when they'll happen. And when they don't, you won't like the results.

Now, if Austin or Bryant goes down, which both have a history of doing, Ogletree has the potential to go all Victor Cruz on us, which is a big reason why he's so worth owning. But given the state of the Cowboys receiving corps heading into Week 2 at Seattle, I should hope you can do better than him.

Please tell me there isn't anything to worry about again this year with Chris Johnson. -- Ryan Minard (via Facebook)

SW: I had an opportunity to draft Johnson in one of my leagues this year. Fortunately, I also had the luxury of a one-hour time limit. I thought about it ... and thought about it ... and thought about it ... and eventually passed in favor of Calvin Johnson.

That was back before the preseason started, but with each exhibition game the Titans played, the question in my mind grew louder and louder: Why does everyone assume Johnson -- Chris, not Calvin -- will be all better this year?

He didn't look it in the preseason, averaging 2.9 yards carry. He didn't look it in the season opener, averaging 0.4 yards per carry. I know the latter came against a Patriots defense that is suspected to be much improved, but it doesn't explain the former. And yes, I know preseason numbers are horribly misleading, but for a player who was a colossal disappointment last year and has been a colossal disappointment this year -- one game and all -- I can't help but think they mean something.

The one bit of encouragement I can offer is that Johnson showed some improvement in the second half last year, which is why people were so quick to blame his poor showing on his contract holdout prior to the season -- he showed up late, got off to a bad start and never fully recovered -- but I think there's more to the story here.

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Of course, that's just a suspicion I have at this early stage of the season. It's not justification to dump Johnson for whatever you can get. It may be justification to deal him, though, if you're offered something fairly even in return, such as Maurice Jones-Drew straight up.

Which is the best DST for this week: the Redskins (at St. Louis), the Cowboys (at Seattle) or the Vikings (at Indianapolis)? -- @DjPaUlHoWaRd (via Twitter)

SW: I think we all got a little spoiled playing the matchups with defenses last season, when the Colts, Jaguars and Rams were all abominable on offense. This season, no offense stands out as being quite that bad. The Dolphins and Browns are getting there, but after one game, I don't think I'm sure enough of them to start the Raiders or Bengals defenses this week.

It's a moot point anyway because neither the Raiders nor the Bengals are options here, but the underlying message is that I'm not sure I trust matchup information enough at this point in the season to stray from the higher-profile defenses.

Of the three you listed here, the Cowboys are the highest-profile. No, they weren't the highest-scoring last year, but they have a big-name defensive coordinator in Rob Ryan and the talent to force a bunch of sacks and turnovers.

And you know what? Their matchup might be the best anyway. The Rams seem to have a different attitude with Jeff Fisher at the helm, so I don't know what to expect from them anymore. And Andrew Luck is such an improvement over what the Colts had at quarterback last year that I expect them to look entirely different as well.

I'm still trying to figure out just what the Seahawks have in Russell Wilson, but judging by his performance against the Cardinals in Week 1, I don't think he's in for a big season statistically. If that defense held the Seahawks offense to only 254 yards, you have to think the Cowboys are a relatively safe start at Seattle.

Is Fred Jackson for Beanie Wells and Nate Washington a good trade? Would Jackson for Reggie Bush be a better trade? I have Jackson. I'd just like to know what you think before I accept or counter offer. -- George Reed (via Facebook)

SW: My initial thought is that if you can still get something for Jackson, with his knee as messed up as it is, go for it. Coach Chan Gailey doesn't think it'll be as long as eight weeks, but he doesn't know either. And eight weeks is a long time as it is. Do you want an injured player hogging a bench spot for that long? Are you sure Jackson will reclaim the job from C.J. Spiller when he's ready to return? Tough questions, both.

But again, that was just my initial thought. Gailey also speculated that Jackson could miss as little as four weeks, which is a much more manageable timetable. I don't know that it's a more realistic timetable, but in the end, I'm just speculating myself. If you discard Jackson for a bunch of scrap metal just to get him off your roster, you may regret it later. So, yeah, I'll take what I can get for him ... within reason.

Wells and Washington are exactly what I mean by scrap metal. They're good enough to own, but will they ever put up big numbers? Maybe when the stars align. Will you ever feel compelled to start them? Maybe when the bye weeks align. I know Wells was pretty good last year, but now he has company in Ryan Williams on an offense that isn't going anywhere this year. Thinking about it makes me feel yucky inside.

However you rate those two, they're not going to help make up for the loss of Jackson. In fact, together, they'll just take up more roster space. If you're going to make either of these deals, you should make the Bush one.

And I'd recommend it, sure. I never understood why everyone was so down on Bush in the first place. He looked like a candidate for the second round when he rushed for 100 yards in each of his last four games last year. I know he doesn't play for a great offensive team, which limits his potential for touchdowns, but ... he is the offense. With Brandon Marshall out of town, most of the yardage now, whether on the ground or in the air, goes through Bush. Clearly, he thrived with poor quarterback play last year, so why wouldn't he do the same this year? I imagine you'd end up starting him just about every week, which is why this trade is worthwhile.

I'll add one caveat, though: If you're the one who owns Spiller, you shouldn't be looking to trade Jackson. You know you have a stud in the Bills running back, whichever it is. If you break up that duo now, you risk not having a stud if and when Jackson returns. Granted, it'll work out great if Jackson ends up missing the rest of the season or if Spiller ends up claiming the job outright, but right now, you're not in a position to predict either of those scenarios.

Rank these tight ends going forward: Brent Celek, Dennis Pitta, Heath Miller and Marcedes Lewis. -- Zac Duffy (via Facebook)

SW: So you want to know where Pitta fits into the equation after a breakout performance in Week 1? That one's hard to figure. For starters, I don't know that he's overtaken Ed Dickson, and I'm not sure the two can coexist. Most offenses don't have enough stats for multiple tight ends.

I mean, they'll play together, but speaking in terms of Fantasy, they may prevent each other from making a relevant contribution.

Of course, it's not like you listed a bunch of studs here. If nothing else, Pitta looked good catching the ball -- more like a wide receiver than a tight end, I'd say -- so if he continues to get the opportunities he did Monday, he has the potential to surprise. I'd still rank him behind Celek -- who, despite his limited ceiling, is a safe bet for 800 yards -- but I'd gamble on Pitta over uninspiring options like Lewis and Miller.

Granted, I'm not being entirely fair to Lewis. If coach Mike Mularkey has indeed fixed the passing game in Jacksonville, Lewis could reemerge as a primary red-zone target and approach the 10 touchdowns he scored in 2010. But he has never offered much between the 20s, and touchdowns alone aren't enough to keep a tight end relevant in Fantasy these days.

As for Miller ... yeah, he plays. That's about all he has going for him, though.

In a 10-team points-per-reception league, I can only start two of Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin and Reggie Wayne. Who should I sit? -- Sean Curtis (via Facebook)

SW: Well, if Maclin ends up missing the game with a strained hip flexor, that's it. The decision is made for you.

In a way, it might already be. He's at less than 100 percent. He's always at risk of losing catches to DeSean Jackson. He's facing the Ravens. Honestly, I can't think of a compelling reason to start him.

But the second reason is the most interesting to me because it applies beyond just this week. Call me old fashioned, but I like the wide receivers who are the clear No. 1 options for their teams. These days, I have to keep more of an open mind because the pass-heavy schemes in New England, New Orleans, Green Bay, New York, Atlanta, Denver and Dallas are all capable of sustaining more than one stud receiver. I'm not so sure about Philadelphia, though.

True, Michael Vick is more inclined to air it out these days than when he was with the Falcons, but running is still a big enough part of his game that he's not going to be one of those quarterbacks who throws for 250-plus yards every week. His passing numbers will be erratic, and Maclin and Jackson will suffer because of it. Hey, the proof is in the pudding. Maclin had less than 60 receiving yards in six of his 13 games last year.

I'm not saying he's a bad Fantasy option or even that I'd have the luxury of sitting him in most of my leagues, but clearly, you do. Granted, Harvin and Wayne aren't exactly Calvin Johnson themselves, but both figure to lead their teams in receiving just about every week. And as we saw in Week 1, both figure to benefit from improved quarterback play this year after falling short of expectations last year.

If I shop Jacquizz Rodgers to a Michael Turner owner, what can I expect to get in return? I was thinking Alshon Jeffery. -- @BrentBeugelink (via Twitter)

SW: Well, yeah, you could probably get Jeffery for him, but if you have to dig that deep, is it really worth it?

Don't get me wrong: Jeffery is a fine sleeper and all -- I own him in a few leagues myself -- but he's at that point where he's still just one bad game from going back on the waiver wire in most leagues. Rodgers' value is a bit more established. Considering his role in the Falcons' new pass-happy offense, he's a threat to overtake Turner any given week and is, therefore, a must-have handcuff option in Fantasy. One bad game won't change that.

Granted, I don't personally feel like he'll displace Turner as the primary rusher. I don't think he's as good in that role. But given the distribution of workload between the two backs in Week 1, the Turner owner has to be freaking out right now. And you're right to take advantage.

But if you're going to take advantage, take advantage. You need a wide receiver? Try asking for Miles Austin or Reggie Wayne or Antonio Brown or Eric Decker. None of them are so high-end that the Turner owner wouldn't at least think about it, and all offer more assurances than Jeffery.

Sure, the Turner owner might just laugh in your face, but if that happens, you don't lose anything by holding on to Rodgers. Another bad week for Turner would only work to your advantage.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Facebook . You can also follow Scott via Twitter @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Report: Patriots hoping to sign Darrelle Revis to long-term extension
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) The Patriots are reportedly looking to sign cornerback Darrelle Revis to a long-term extension, according Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network.

However, New England has not ruled out paying Revis the $20 million team option in 2015, Rapoport reports. The decision needs to be made by April 1, when a $12 million roster bonus kicks in for Revis.

Revis totaled 47 tackles in 16 games for the Patriots, grabbing two interceptions and forcing one fumble.


C.J. Spiller expecting 'March Madness' style free agency
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) Bills running back C.J. Spiller is getting healthy again. Spiller, who has fully recovered from a shoulder injury, just ended the final season of his contract and is looking at his options for next season.

"Physically, I’m back to 100 percent, back to doing normal activities," Spiller told The Post and Courier on Friday. "As far as football, free agency will start in March, and I’ll get with my people next week and get a game plan together."

Spiller has played five seasons for the Bills, only playing two full years. He ran for 1,244 yards in 2012 with six touchdowns.

"I guess you could say it’ll be March Madness," Spiller said with a smile. "It’ll be a fun March."


Report: Rams among teams interested in trade for Eagles' Foles
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) Teams are beginning to show interest in Eagles quarterback Nick Foles, as reports are surfacing Philadelphia is unsure of what to do with the third-year quarterback, per NJ.com. A source said the Rams have interest in Foles should the Eagles choose to trade him this offseason. 

The Titans and Texans have also been mentioned as teams that would have interest in Foles, if he hits the trade market.

It's still unclear if the Eagles would be willing to move Foles. NJ.com reported last week the Eagles, who have the 20th pick in the NFL Draft, are considering making a run at Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota in the draft. 

"From No. 20, it's certainly not going to be easy,'' a source said. "It's probably going to take moving up twice to do it. There's going to be some wheeling and dealing involved.

"Can it happen? I don't know. But they're going to try."

Eagles head coach Chip Kelly recruited Mariota to Oregon and coached him for two years.

"Obviously, [with] my relationship with coach Kelly, it'd be a lot of fun to be a part of that offense and be a part of that team," Mariota said when asked about a potential reunion with Kelly.

Foles is 15-9 as a starter in the NFL, but he has yet to play a full season. He has completed 61.6 percent of his passes for 6,753 yards, 46 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.


Colts' Luck on new contract: 'There's nothing there right now'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) An ESPN report surfaced last week stating the Colts were working on making quarterback Andrew Luck the highest-paid player in the NFL. When asked about the subject at the Pro Bowl, Luck seemed surprise when he heard the news.

"There's nothing there right now," Luck said, per The Indianapolis Star. "I didn't think about it all during the season and it's only been a few days since it ended. I haven't thought about it. I will have conversations with my agent just because you have to prepare, but I'm not sure where that report came from."

Luck has two years remaining on the $22 million deal he signed as a rookie in 2012. It includes a team option for 2016, which must be exercised later this year.

Luck just completed his third season in the NFL. He has been to the Pro Bowl every year he's been in the NFL. He's gone 11-5 in every season as an NFL starter. He threw for a career-best 40 touchdowns in 2014 and led Indianapolis to the AFC title game this season.


Seahawks' Sherman disappointed he won't receive gifts from Pro Bowl
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) In case you missed Sunday's Pro Bowl, Team Irvin knocked off Team Carter, 32-28, thanks to a second-half rally, which included touchdown catches by Emmanuel Sanders and Jimmy Graham.

While many Pro Bowl players that made the original roster were absent from the game due to injuries, Pro Bowl players from the Patriots and Seahawks also did not play due to preparations for next Sunday's Super Bowl.

One player who seemed upset about missing the Pro Bowl was Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman. However, it was for a reason you probably wouldn't suspect.

“Only thing I’m disappointed in is they won’t give us our gifts from the Pro Bowl, which is kind of dumb,” Sherman said, per The Boston Globe. “The NFL is the only league that punishes the players who actually make the All-Star game by not giving them their gifts. It’s supposed to be watches and some other stuff, but we don’t get them so I couldn’t tell you.”


Patriots' Tom Brady on Deflategate: 'My feelings got hurt'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) If you have been out of the loop for the last week, then you might be unaware the Patriots have been under a lot of scrutiny since the AFC title game due to improperly inflated footballs used against the Colts. The media hoopla has transformed the controversy into what we know as Deflategate.

If you haven't been out of the loop, then you are well aware of the nonstop coverage it has received the last week and despite the Patriots pleas for it to go away, it just won't.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has had to deal with the backlash from Deflategate, and he found himself talking about the subject again Monday morning during an interview with WEEI.

“It’s all speculation,” Brady said. “I’ve tried to wrap my head around it, too. I’ve done that and I’m trying to move past that, because I continue to try to rehash things. I personalized a lot of things and thought this was all about me, and my feelings got hurt. Then I moved past it, because it’s not serving me. What’s serving me is try to prepare for the game ahead. I’ll deal with whatever happens later. I’ll have my opportunity to try to figure out what happened and figure out a theory like everyone else is trying to do. But this isn’t the time for that. Honestly, I’m not interested in trying to find out right now, because we have the biggest game of our season ahead.”

One topic Brady didn't have a problem addressing was the speculation coach Bill Belichick threw him under the bus during a press conference on Thursday. But Brady came to the defense of Belichick, who has won three Super Bowls as the Patriots coach.

“I’ve never once felt that we’re not on the same page,” Brady said. “He’s a great coach. He’s the only coach I’ve ever played for; he’s the only coach I’d ever want to play for. There’s a lot of people over the years that have criticized him, but I’d say there’s not one player who’s ever played for him who’s not had an unbelievable amount of respect for him and how he prepares and his diligence and his preparation."


Giants' Odell Beckham says he played with hamstring tears
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham said he played all season with two tears in his hamstrings, according to the New York Daily News.

Beckham took part in the Pro Bowl on Sunday, but admitted he's still not fully healed. Beckham said the injuries prevented him from getting to that "last gear that I wanted to have." He added that the injuries really bothered him against the Eagles and Colts. Beckham said he was "stumbling" and falling over during those games. He added that he's not sure whether he'll ever be 100 percent again.

The rookie had a tremendous season, hauling in 91 balls for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns. 


Patriots' Tom Brady meeting with NFL after Super Bowl 49
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Patriots quarterback Tom Brady doesn't expect to meet with the NFL until after Super Bowl XLIX, according to NFL.com.

The Patriots have been in the headlines all week due to Deflategate, and it appears the situation won't be resolved until after the season. "I believe they're going to do [a meeting] after the season," Brady said. "So we'll deal with it after this game. I think everybody is locked in, ready to go for the Super Bowl." Both Brady and coach Bill Belichick have held separate press conferences during the week to deny the team's involvement in deflating their footballs. 

The Patriots are subject to punishment from the NFL if the league finds any wrongdoing during the investigation. 


Earl Thomas on bad shoulder: 'I'll still play fearless'
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Seahawks safety Earl Thomas, who dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game, could remain limited in practice this week ahead of the Super Bowl, reports the Seattle Times. But he said he won't be thinking about the injury against the Patriots.

"When I come alive nothing is limited,’’ he said. “I’ll still play fearless, throw my body around, and let whatever happens, happens.’’

Thomas did allow that he might have to rely more on his teammates.

“My mindset is I have an opportunity to really trust my teammates,’’ he said. “This is the first game I’m going to have to trust them because of my injury. So I really, really, really trust my teammates, and that’s what I’m banking on, my teammates doing what they need to do and I need to come through myself.’’

It's unclear if Thomas will need offseason surgery.

The Seahawks are 1-point underdogs after opening as 2.5-point favorites.


Colts QB Matt Hasselbeck pondering retirement
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Colts backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck told ESPN.com he's not sure if he'll retire or return for a 17th season. Hasselbeck, 39, appeared in four games this season and played well, posting a 102.6 passer rating.

He's set to hit unrestricted free agency.


 
 
 
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