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Fantasy & Reality: Five up, five down

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I don't have many pet peeves, but one of them is when people ask me about a possible trade after the draft but before the season started. You just set up your entire roster, now you want to make deals? Unless an obvious offer comes along, it's not worth making preseason moves.

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But that was just a few weeks ago. Now people are asking about possible trades and at least we've had three weeks to get a glimpse of who's hot and who's not around the NFL. Now's the time to think about roster improvement. If you're 3-0 or 2-1, depth should be on your mind. If you're 1-2 or winless, rapid improvement is definitely on your mind.

This season we've come up with a Fantasy Trade Value Chart, designed to help you figure out fair and unfair offers that come along. But after three weeks, there are still a number of players who are valued too high and too low that owners should give some thought to trading for or trading away.

Buying low

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: This has been a hot topic for me for a couple of weeks now. Roethlisberger is one of just five quarterbacks with at least 19 Fantasy points per game so far in 2012, but no one's noticing. He's only starting in 38 percent of CBSSports.com leagues. That means he's on the bench for two-thirds of the people who play on our site. That means he can be had for cheap. Who wouldn't trade away a backup quarterback, especially at a time when many starters are healthy and another backup passer can be claimed off waivers? There's a difference with Roethlisberger: He has to throw because the Steelers' run game is such a mess. I love the idea of acquiring Roethliberger on the cheap if I'm not thrilled with my current starting quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers, QB; Greg Jennings/Jordy Nelson, WRs; Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers: A smart Fantasy owner will shake off Green Bay's tough start offensively. But the smarter Fantasy owner will seek out the disgruntled owner of the Packers' pass game stars and lowball him on his talent. The Packers began the year with matchups against the Niners, Bears and Seahawks, three tough defenses with strong defensive lines. They have another tough matchup in Week 6 at Houston, but otherwise won't have a big challenge until Week 12 at the Giants and then again at the Bears in Week 15. Everything else is a cakewalk starting this week against the Saints at home. Jennings especially stands out as a great buy-low candidate: He has as many targets in two games (19) as Nelson has in three.

Most Traded Players (as of 9/26)
Player # of trades
1. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans 2549
2. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins 1987
3. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals 1536
4. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons 1525
5. Cedric Benson, RB, Packers 1416
6. Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins 1284
7. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots 1248
8. Michael Bush, RB, Bears 1217
9. Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos 1208
10. Kevin Smith, RB, Lions 1150

Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots: Ridley's numbers have declined over three weeks thanks to a great Week 1 and tough matchups in Weeks 2 and 3. Things should turn around for him starting this week against the Bills. Here's a good note: Ridley has more carries through three weeks (52) than any Patriots running back since 2007 (Laurence Maroney, 54). And he's still averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the year. It remains to be seen how much Brandon Bolden and Danny Woodhead will take away from Ridley, but we're still in love with him for the simple reason he'll be the primary back in an offense loaded with passing talent.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars: Pretty soon people are going to start punting on Blackmon because of his ugly start. Why not swoop in with the worst player on your bench for him? Yes, he has only four catches for 31 yards, but he does have 15 targets (Top 60 among wideouts) and is in little to no danger of losing playing time as the Jaguars' receiving corps is getting thin. He's also in no danger of playing in a lot of games where the Jaguars have a big lead and run the kill the clock. He has nowhere to go but up and you can get him for a song -- far less of a risk than what people paid for him during the draft.

Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions: There is a slew of interesting tight ends available on waivers but they're going quick. One of the tight ends who might be getting cut in a lot of leagues is Pettigrew, who has yet to post more than seven Fantasy points in a standard format. It's the same old story for Pettigrew: Lots of catches, not a lot of yards. He's fourth among tight ends in targets and fifth in receptions, but a weak receiving average keeps him grounded. Still, he had at least five catches per week in half of his games last year and two of three games this year. He's probably the best buy-low tight end you could get.

Selling high

Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins: You don't need me to tell you that Griffin's been the best Fantasy player through three weeks. Everyone knows it. And some Fantasy owners will get a little crazy and offer up the moon for him. That's when you should deal him off -- we've seen him dealt for Andre Johnson, Julio Jones and Darren McFadden. If you can land an elite talent at another position for Griffin, it's probably a good idea (obviously in seasonal formats only). He's most likely not the only quarterback on your roster; assuming you're comfortable with who else you have, so don't frown on the idea of giving up Griffin if a great deal comes along. Anything short of that and you should hold off.

Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins: RG3 isn't the only Redskin worth moving. Morris was either drafted very late or picked up off waivers, so he's been a boon to most of you. Time to make him pay off: After this week against the Bucs, the Redskins will take on the Falcons, Vikings, Giants and Steelers in their next four. Combined they've allowed six rushing touchdowns and three 100-yard rushing games to running backs. Then after his Week 10 bye he'll have two games each against the Cowboys and Eagles -- assuming he's still the Redskins' primary rusher by then. Like Griffin, don't give Morris away just to avoid some bad stat lines. But an owner desperate for running back help should pony up a solid receiver or tight end to shore up his or her ground attack.

Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: Buffalo's schedule is about to get very tough. With C.J. Spiller banged up and Fred Jackson on the mend there's no chance of getting a huge amount in a trade for them, nor will anyone pay up big for Ryan Fitzpatrick. But Steve Johnson is one of two receivers with at least 10 Fantasy points per game thanks to a three-game touchdown streak to begin the year, and he's a guy who could fetch quite a bit in trade. Johnson led off 2011 with scores in each of his first three games and had four more with one 100-yard game the rest of the way. In his breakout 2010 season he scored in five straight games from late September through October before scoring four touchdowns in two games the rest of the season. With a history of limping to the finish line, Johnson might be a receiver you should consider hitting the ejection button on soon. I might even consider taking less than a five-star deal for him.

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: The dude is on fire with touchdowns in three straight games and just over 70 yards per game. Think he keeps it up? Not many think so -- he had two three-game touchdown streaks last season with no other scores sprinkled in throughout the year. But here's a chance for Fantasy owners to get sneaky -- one could trade Gonzalez for a good player at another position and then go right out to the waiver wire to find another tight end who is producing good numbers. Heath Miller has somehow scored more touchdowns than Gonzalez has and is unowned in over 60 percent of CBSSports.com leagues as of Sept. 25! Brandon Myers is another sweet tight end who could be claimed to take over for Gonzalez. Make the huge amount of tight end talent work for you by getting rid of Gonzalez while his value is arguably at a three-year high.

Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: This one is a tough call but falls along the same lines as Morris. Gore's playing above expectations thanks in part to a pretty good schedule, but some tough matchups coming up could bring him back down to earth. Let's also not forget that the Niners have a number of running backs on the roster and initially planned to keep Gore's carry totals under the 282 he had in 2011. He's also missed at least two games in three of his last four seasons and has averaged more than 4.3 yards per carry once since his breakout 2006 season -- the 5.9 yard rushing average he's sporting now will head south. An owner scrambling for a running back could pony up a couple of stellar talents for Gore. Let him do it and take advantage.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) from around the league.

Fantasy: Cam Newton is a rock solid, safe No. 1 Fantasy quarterback. There I was in my office last week contemplating Newton as the No. 1 quarterback on my rank list for Week 3 as he faced a beleaguered Giants defense at home on a short week. I pulled away from that but couldn't get him past No. 2 on my rank list. He sure played like No. 2 all right, throwing three interceptions while completing a gross 53 percent of his passes with zero touchdowns. He has four touchdowns through three games, a cold streak he suffered through once all of last season. His offensive line isn't protecting him as much and his passing is just as streaky if not more so than it was in 2011. I'd be nervous about starting him this week against a Falcons secondary that embarrassed Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers in consecutive weeks.

Reality: Marques Colston is a problem. Don't take my word for it -- take Drew Brees'. Sure, he won't say anything that isn't glowingly positive about Colston, but the proof is in the numbers: 31 targets for Jimmy Graham, 25 for Darren Sproles, 22 targets for Lance Moore, 19 for Marques Colston. Last week even Devery Henderson had more passes thrown his way than Colston. The veteran wideout has had some decent gains this season but isn't a factor in the red zone (four targets) and looks as if a foot injury is slowing him down.

Fantasy: Shonn Greene is the Jets' best running back. We know Rex Ryan could be at his wit's end with the problems the Jets are having but it remains to be seen just how patient he'll be with Greene going forward. For the second week in a row Greene had a poor 2.1 rushing average with a long run of 9 yards. For a guy who averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry in nine games last season, that's not good news. Ryan already told the media this week that giving Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight more carries is "a possibility that we'll look into." Greene is on notice with Ryan while Powell stands as a good waiver nab for those with an eye toward the rest of the season.

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Reality: Tom Brady struggles against the Ravens. Okay, maybe he didn't exactly struggle against the Ravens on Sunday night. He completed 68 percent of his passes, he threw for a season-high 8.2 yards per attempt and he didn't have any turnovers. But he didn't throw multiple touchdowns and that stung owners expecting big stats from him. No one who drafted Brady is freaking out, but through three weeks he has fewer Fantasy points than both rookie quarterbacks as well as Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andy Dalton. It's not exactly ideal, but it's still better than what people have gotten from other Top 25 overall picks like Rodgers, Stafford and Newton.

Impactful injuries

C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: The entire city of Buffalo breathed a sigh of relief when Spiller was diagnosed with a sprained shoulder, not a separation. He could play sooner than later (maybe this week) but Fred Jackson, who got hurt in Week 1, could beat him back to the field. Spiller's long-term outlook is still considered positive.

Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: It looked rough when Bush tested his knee on the sideline in the second half on Sunday and couldn't come back into the game against the Jets. But no structural damage was found and Bush might find himself back on the field in a week. Hopefully this is the last time Bush deals with a knee problem this season, but we know better.

Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos: McGahee is day-to-day with a rib injury. Without him the Broncos would presumably roll with a Lance Ball/Ronnie Hillman/Knowshon Moreno trio. We'll see if he gets some work in practice before a juicy Week 4 matchup vs. Oakland.

Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: Wells might have turf toe, or at least that's what was implied on Sunday. The injury would open the door for Ryan Williams to be the primary ball carrier for the Cardinals.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders: DHB was carted off the field in Oakland Sunday with a concussion and a neck sprain. He left a hospital earlier in the week and isn't expected back anytime soon. The door is open for Denarius Moore to cement himself as the Raiders' best receiver.

Jared Cook, TE, Titans: Cook banged up his shoulder in Week 3 but coach Mike Munchak feels good about him playing at Houston in Week 4. At least someone feels good about playing the Texans!

Darrelle Revis, CB, Jets: It's a torn ACL for the league's best cornerback, ending his season and putting a lot of pressure on the rest of the Jets secondary. Kyle Wilson will pick up Revis' slack, but he won't intimidate offenses like Revis did. The Jets defense has as many sacks as game played -- without Revis they're in big trouble.

Adrian Clayborn, DE, Buccaneers: Clayborn was considered one of the league's up-and-coming pass-rush specialists. The Bucs will be even easier to pass against without him coming down on quarterbacks. He tore ligaments in his knee.

DST sleepers for Week 4

Last week's DST sleepers: Bills (12 points), Chargers (four points), Saints (nine points), Colts (don't ask)

Cardinals (vs. Dolphins) ... The Cardinals DST was owned in under half of CBSSports.com leagues last week. That number should be closer to 100 percent this week. Great schedule for the rest of the season and it kicks off with a game at home vs. Miami potentially without Reggie Bush. They should dominate.
Falcons (vs. Panthers) ... In consecutive weeks the Falcons have landed multiple interceptions against good quarterbacks. Containing Cam Newton doesn't sound easy but Atlanta picked him off five times in two games last year, both Falcons wins.
Buccaneers vs. Redskins ... In three games against teams led by Newton, Eli Manning and Tony Romo, the Bucs DST has managed to top 12 Fantasy points per game. Sure, the Redskins offense is a challenge to contain, but the Bucs' run defense has been surprisingly effective and the pass defense has allowed a ton of yards but not a ton of touchdowns.

Two more things

• Christian Ponder might end up being this year's rags-to-riches Fantasy story. Through three weeks he's been very impressive, totaling five touchdowns without an interception and a good completion percentage every game -- a nice improvement from last year. Where he's had help is in his receiving corps -- Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph have been big for him. More help is on the way as Jerome Simpson is coming back from a three-game suspension and can help stretch defenses further. The Vikings have averaged 23 points per game this season and Ponder has been a major reason.

• I came away with a very favorable impression of Kevin Kolb in the Cardinals' drubbing of the Eagles in Week 3. After playing it close to the vest against the Patriots in Week 2 and making everyone nervous about using Larry Fitzgerald, Kolb opened it up a bit more against the Eagles and completed 17 of 24 passes for his most efficient game as a member of the Cardinals. He threw downfield more, stood up in the pocket more and played beyond expectations, especially in a game against a tough pass rush. If this lasts we won't have to sweat Fitzgerald's numbers with Kolb anymore, and it might even lead to the Arizona ground attack becoming more of a factor, just like it was for Ryan Williams against the Eagles (83 yards on just 13 carries).

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

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Player News
Cardinals coach Bruce Arians: 'It's really (Fitzgerald's) decision'
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(10:33 am ET) Cardinals coach Bruce Arians told reporters Friday he really wants to see wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald back in Arizona next season.

"I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t," Arians said. "We definitely, desperately want him to stay. He knows that. It’s really his decision."

Fitzgerald has a salary cap hit of $23.6 million for 2015 and the team will work to get that number down in the offseason. Team president Michael Bidwill said this week contract talks won't start fully until after the Super Bowl.

"I’m hoping and praying every day that it does happen," Arians said. "I’ve expressed to him personally how much it means to us."

Fitzgerald has not reached 1,000 yards receiving in the past three seasons and totaled 784 in 2014 on 63 catches with two touchdowns.


Seahawks corner Byron Maxwell set to test free agency
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:25 am ET) Seahawks cornerback Byron Maxwell is ready to hit the free-agent market during the upcoming offseason and feels the Super Bowl will be his last game in Seattle.

"I’m the prettiest girl at the dance right now," Maxwell said. "But yeah, it’s one of those things I’m excited about it. I would love to be here, but I’m ready to see what’s out there and see how things work out."

Maxwell, who was heavily targeted this year with the Seahawks secondary filled with Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, grabbed two interceptions and defended 11 passes.

"Coming into the season I already knew teams were going to try me," Maxwell said. "But it was cool. I accept that. That’s more opportunities for me to get the rock and put my name out there."


Report: Titans S Bernard Pollard wants to be released
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:52 am ET) Titans safety Bernard Pollard has requested a release from his contract, The Tennessean reports. He is scheduled to make $3.1 million in the final season of his two-year deal in 2015.

Pollard submitted his request to general manager Ruston Webster at the end of the regular season, per the report. He is recovering from a ruptured Achilles and wants to play in 2015, but said on The Tennessean's Bernard Pollard Show earlier this month that he was unsure of his future with the Titans.

"I am not getting any younger, so I want to win, I really do. I want to win,'' Pollard said. "Looking at how things took place this year, looking at where (the Titans) need to be for next year, that is a tough, tough question, and I don't even know if they can give me the answer. I have one year on my deal, but it is going to take some time."

Pollard has been out of his walking boot for a month and is making progress in rehab. He suffered his Achilles injury in Week 5 and was placed on injured reserve.


Patriots fairly healthy heading into Super Bowl Sunday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) The Patriots will be at nearly full strength for Sunday’s Super Bowl as the following players have been listed as probable: Tom Brady (ankle), Dont’a Hightower (shoulder), Chris Jones (elbow), Akeem Ayers (knee), Darrelle Revis (non-injury-related) and Sealver Siliga (foot).

All except Brady were limited participants in practice Friday. The only question mark is center Bryan Stork, who is questionable with a knee injury and was limited in practice Friday.

The Patriots are currently 1-point favorites against Seattle.


Seahawks unveil final injury report in preparation for Super Bowl
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) The Seahawks have listed the following players as probable for the Super Bowl on Sunday: J.R. Sweezy (ankle), Justin Britt (knee), Marshawn Lynch (back), Earl Thomas (shoulder), Richard Sherman (elbow) and Kam Chancellor (knee).

Chancellor was a late addition to the injury report, when he fell on the next-to-last play of practice and missed the last play. He was not limping on his way off. All other players were full participants in practice Friday.

The Seahawks are currently 1-point underdogs against New England.


Saints tight end Jimmy Graham to avoid surgery on shoulder
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) Saints tight end Jimmy Graham said Friday he will avoid surgery on his shoulder after testing it at the Pro Bowl. 

"I’ve been doing rehab and I’m going to start back on my rehab Monday and really there’s going to be no surgery," Graham told SiriusXM radio. "I’m just going to do rehab, strengthen the area. That’s what’s best — not having to take six months off and try to heal up with a surgery, but now have those six months to work on all things I need to to try and hopefully get to a place like (the Super Bowl) next year."

Graham, who had 85 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2014, fought off the injury for most of the season. He was still unsure about having surgery before the Pro Bowl last week.

"It was something that really needed some rest and unfortunately it wasn’t able to get that during the season," he said. "It happened early and then you have about 10 straight weeks of trying to make it to the game. Now after having about three or four weeks and last week kind of testing it at the Pro Bowl, it feels great."


Vikings' Greg Jennings: We all want Adrian Peterson back
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) Vikings veteran wideout Greg Jennings said during a SiriusXM NFL Radio interview on Friday that embattled running back Adrian Peterson is wanted back by everyone in the organization, per ESPN.

"I don't know if he'll be back. I can't answer that question," Jennings said. "But what I do know is that if he does come back, he'd be accepted with open arms. As an organization from the Wilfs on down, we all want him back. So, I mean, it's a touchy subject and he's been the franchise player -- face of that team -- for eight years. So it will be a loss, a huge loss, if we can't get him back, and that's the nature of this business."

In November, Peterson was suspended by the league without pay for the rest of the season, making him ineligible for reinstatement until at least April 15. The move came after Peterson pleaded no contest to recklessly injuring his 4-year-old son last May. He is under contract with the Vikings for next season, and is set to earn $12.75 million.

It's unclear at this point if Jennings has talked to Zygi and Mark Wilf about the Peterson situation. What is clear is that the team is not allowed to communicate with Peterson during his suspension.


Eagles' Maclin believes contract will take care of itself
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin believes he will be back in Philadelphia in next season. His representatives and the Eagles are in the process of negotiating a new contract for the 27-year-old, who will become a free agent in March unless he is re-signed.

"I'm excited about what the future holds," Maclin said on Friday. "Once again, both sides have made it known what we want to do. I think it will take care of itself."

He could be franchise tagged if a deal is not signed. The tag number for wide receivers is yet to be determined.

Maclin had 85 catches in 2014 for 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns in Philadelphia.


Bears sign LB DeDe Lattimore to two-year contract extension
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) The Bears have signed linebacker DeDe Lattimore to a two-year contract extension. He appeared in 10 games as a rookie in 2014, recording five special teams tackles.

Jaguars' Khan 'very optimistic' about WR Blackmon being reinstated
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) Jaguars owner Shahid Khan said Friday he is "very optimistic" about wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who missed the 2014 season after being suspended indefinitely for a third violation of the league's substance abuse policy, being reinstated to the NFL.

"I think he's paid his dues and I think he's got his life together," Khan said, per The Florida Times-Union.


 
 
 
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