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Tricks of the trends after Week 3

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Here is a deep dive behind some of the key statistics (targets, red zone and goal line) for Fantasy football success to help give you a little edge in your weekly quest for victory.

• If you look at the Top 40 most targeted receivers in the NFL after three games, one very important name is missing. Fortunately for his Fantasy owners, Andre Johnson is making the most of his limited chances because he is currently tied for 42nd among all receivers with only six targets per game. Johnson has caught 13 of his 18 targets (72.7 percent) for 212 yards and two scores in his three games. He is averaging 11.8 yards and 1.84 points per target through three weeks, both fifth best among the 55 most targeted receivers. No wonder his one game with 100 yards and a touchdown came in Week 1 when he saw a season high 10 targets. Get the big dude the ball, Mr. Schaub!

• Looking for a couple of buy low candidates at wide receiver? Well how about these two gentlemen who currently in the bottom three respectively in both yards per target and points per target among the 55 most targeted receivers. I am talking about Kenny Britt (4.6 yards and 0.46 points per target) and Greg Jennings (3.6 yards and 0.36 points) who are both about to start producing some big time points. We are talking about two of the most efficient receivers in NFL history and both are battling through injuries. They will both be heavily targeted and they will get back to their career averages over 10 yards per target soon, so you want to get them while they are undervalued based on current performance.

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• One guy I am currently not as optimistic on is Jacksonville Jaguars rookie receiver Justin Blackmon. Blackmon is the league’s worst in all three key metrics after three weeks as he has turned 15 targets into four catches for 31 yards. Those are his three game totals and he is averaging the worst yards (2.1) and points per target (0.21) I have ever seen. The Jags do not look like they are in danger of turning into a passing juggernaut any time soon and if he can not show any signs of life against Cincinnati it may be time to abandon ship.

• Perhaps the biggest Fantasy disappointment at receiver this year is Jordy Nelson, who has just 13 catches for 167 yards and no scores through three games. So what is different about this year from last year for Nelson, who turned in the most efficient season ever for a wide receiver in 2011? Let’s compare the numbers really quickly. In 2011, Nelson averaged 5.9 targets per game, caught 71.6 percent of them and averaged 13.3 yards per target, 18.6 yards per catch and 2.3 points per target. This year, Nelson is actually seeing 6.3 targets per game while catching 68.4 percent of them and averaging 8.8 yards per target, 12.8 yards per catch and 0.88 points per target. Clearly, Nelson is not getting down the field or at the very least connecting on his deep targets as both his yards per catch and yards per target averages are down 4.5 and 5.8 yards respectively. Nelson also does not have a single touchdown in 19 targets after scoring once for every 6.1 in 2011. He won’t be as good as he was in 2011, but the Packers will get their offensive line issues figured out and Nelson is another excellent buy low candidate.

Santonio Holmes is currently sixth among all receivers with 33 targets through two games and is clearly the go to guy for Mark Sanchez. Even with his current 48.5 percent catch rate, Holmes is still averaging 5.3 catches and 81 yards receiving per game. If he continues to average over 10 targets per game, even the inefficient Holmes will be a Top 24 receiver at the end of the year because we know he can score touchdowns.

A.J. Green is the only receiver who has seen at least 10 targets in every game this year and it is no wonder that he is the number one Fantasy receiver as well. Green is also seventh with 21 catches, second with 311 yards and tied for fourth with two receiving scores.

• Keep your eye on Denarius Moore if you need some help at wide receiver. In two games, Moore has seen 18 targets and will be even more involved following the injury to Darrius Heyward-Bey. So far, Moore has caught only eight of those passes for 112 yards and a touchdown, but if last year was any indication, Moore will soon see dramatic jumps up from his current 6.2 yards per target and 14.0 yards per catch averages. After all, with Carson Palmer under center in 2011, Moore averaged over 10 yards per target and 21 yards per catch.

• After his sluggish start in Week 1, Wes Welker has seen 21 targets over the last two games and has caught 13 passes for 237 yards. Whether it be the injury to Aaron Hernandez or that Week 1 was an aberration, it seems that Welker is back to being himself.

• I love that DeSean Jackson is getting elite level targets at 9.7 per game (tied for 12th) but I want to see him do better than his current 48.3 percent catch rate. The volume is allowing Jackson to average just under 80 yards receiving per week, but he will need even more yards per game to be a solid Fantasy starter if his current touchdown drought continues. Believe it or not, DeSean Jackson has just two receiving touchdowns in his last 13 games and three in his last 17.

• The old man can still play the game down in Atlanta! With defenses worried about Julio Jones and Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez is off to a sensational start in 2012. He is catching 75 percent of his targets and leads all tight ends with 21 catches. Not only that, Gonzo is second with 214 yards, third with three touchdowns and most importantly, he is the No. 2 Fantasy tight end with 39 points.

Vernon Davis has an NFL best nine touchdowns in his last five games. He leads all tight ends with a 2.05 points per target average and has a ridiculous 20 percent touchdown rate thus far in 2012.

• The two worst tight ends through three weeks are Antonio Gates and Jason Witten and it is not even close. Gates has caught 7 of his 15 targets (46.7 percent) for just 65 yards and no scores. He is averaging a horrendous 4.3 yards per target and just 0.43 points per target. Those numbers only look better when compared to those of Witten, who is catching just 42 percent of his targets and is averaging 4.0 yards and 0.4 points per target. Of the two, I am much more concerned with Jason Witten because he seems to be significantly slower and less sure handed in years past. Witten’s spleen could be a big factor here and I wonder if he will ever get back to 100 percent this year. On the other hand, Gates has been getting open, but he just has made some uncharacteristic drops and that will get fixed. If I had to buy low on one of these two, it is definitely Gates.

• Not only did Kevin Smith go without a carry in Week 3, he also did not see a single target, so I think you can assume that he is doneski. Mikel Leshoure saw four targets in the game and caught all four of them for 34 yards and if the big fella can add some yards in the passing game every week, we will have a new Top 20 running back on our hands.

Target Leaders by position for Week 3: Wide receiver: Dwayne Bowe (16), Reggie Wayne (15), Santonio Holmes (14), Nate Burleson (12) and Brandon Lloyd (12); Tight end: Greg Olsen (14), Tony Gonzalez (12) and Brandon Pettigrew (12); Running back: Ryan Mathews (8) and Jamaal Charles (8).

Red Zone

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Matt Ryan is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL right now and there is no place where that has been clearer than in the red zone. Ryan leads the NFL with nine red zone scores through three weeks and his 39.1 percent scoring rate is the best among the 20 busiest quarterbacks inside the 20 yard line.

• Not as nice as Matty Ice: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Tony Romo have combined for only nine red zone scores this year, which is one of the chief reasons they are all struggling. Newton leads this group with 18 red zone chances (only five fewer than Ryan’s 23), but has just a 16.7 percent scoring rate. Brady has three scores on 14 chances, but he is usually Top 3 in red zone chances, not 16th. Neither Romo nor Rodgers are even in the Top 20 of quarterback red zone chances, which is why they have just three scores combined. They will get better, but there is a reason why the red zone is the money area for Fantasy football production.

• Well know that Darren McFadden and Jamaal Charles can score from anywhere on the field as evidenced by their long touchdown runs in Week 3. Hopefully they can start to give us some red zone scores as well and if they do, expect some monster weeks. McFadden has failed to score on 12 red zone opportunities this year (sixth most) and Charles has not found pay dirt on nine red zone chances (13th most).

• I want to thank the Cowboys for giving DeMarco Murray six red zone carries last week against Tampa Bay because they led to his first red zone score of the year. They must be big fans of the Tricks of the Trends. Now we just need them to throw the ball to Dez Bryant inside the 20 this week. Bryant has been Top 3 in terms of red zone scoring rate (over 40 percent for his career) but does not have a single red zone target in 2012. It is tough to score without any scoring looks, so get Dez the ball and he will get back to becoming a touchdown maker.

• I am not too worried about Marques Colston. His foot is healing and he still is Top 10 with four red zone targets. He has yet to score, but the touchdowns will come and you can snag Colston on the very cheap right now.

Julio Jones already topped his rookie total of two red zone scores with his third such score in Week 3 of 2012. He leads all wide receivers with seven red zone targets and is poised for a double digit touchdown season.

Heath Miller has more red zone targets (eight) and touchdowns (four) than any player in the NFL. He has been highlighted every week in this article and if he continues to be such a focal point in scoring situations, he will have a career year and finish in the Top 10 at tight end.

Goal Line

Robert Griffin III is like a great goal line back. He has scored on all four of his goal line chances this year and his four scores from up close are as many as Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers have on a combined 16 chances.

Doug Martin is the only running back with at least four goal line chances who has yet to score a touchdown up close in 2012. With his heavy workload, if Martin can start to convert these scoring chances we will have a Top 12 muscle hamster on our hands.

Arian Foster leads the league with both eight goal line chances and three goal line scores. That’s exactly what you want from the top overall pick.

• If LeSean McCoy only gets one goal line carry every three games, he will have no chance to repeat his monster season of 2011. Last year, McCoy averaged 1.7 goal line carries per week (second most in the NFL) and scored 11 times from inside the 5-yard line.

• Miller leads at the goal line as well with six targets and four touchdowns, so yes he does have more goal line scores than any running back in the NFL, which is mind boggling when you think of it.

• However, a tip of the cap is also in order for Vernon Davis, Kyle Rudolph and Rob Gronkowski who have all converted both of their goal line targets into touchdowns this year.

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Player News
Report: Giants Jason Pierre-Paul hurt in fireworks accident
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(7/5/2015) Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul reportedly hurt his hand in a Fourth of July fireworks accident in Miami, according to the Daily News

The paper reports that the injury is not considered career-threatening, but that varying accounts of what happened have been reported. The Giants have not confirmed nor denied the incident. 

The Giants applied the franchise tag to Pierre-Paul this offseason, but the 26-year-old has not yet signed it as he seeks a long-term deal, meaning that he technically is not under contract. 

Pierre-Paul had 53 tackles and 12 1/2 sacks last year for New York. 


Report: Torn pectoral sidelines Vikings CB Josh Robinson
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/4/2015) The Vikings secondary took a hit last month when cornerback Josh Robinson sustained a partially torn pectoral muscle, a league source has told ESPN.

The nickel back played in 690 snaps last season and was expected to battle several others for playing time. The injury could sideline him from training camp and land him on the PUP list.


Report: Packers' Andrew Quarless arrested on gun charges
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(7/4/2015) Packers tight end Andrew Quarless was arrested for firing a gun twice in Miami on Saturday, per the Miami New Times.

Quarless was involved in a fight at South Beach and fired the gun into the ground. 


Titans receivers can thrive in YAC with Marcus Mariota's accuracy
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(7/3/2015) The Titans wide receiving corps could gain more yards after the catch this season because of rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and his accurate throws, per ESPN.com.

The Titans were 24th in the league in yards after the catch last season, but with Mariota under center that can all change.

“If you have an accurate quarterback, it allows us to get more yards after that catch,” wide receiver Harry Douglas said. “And that’s one thing that makes a receiver dynamic -- first being able to catch the ball and then being able to do some things with it after you catch it. I feel like [to this point] Marcus has done everything he needs to do to get the ball to his receivers.”


Saints RB Khiry Robinson doesn't feel he's on outside looking in
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(7/3/2015) Saints running back Khiry Robinson might be the least known of his backfield counterparts, but he doesn't feel like the off man out, per ESPN.com.

Robinson knows the team is heavily invested in the likes of Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller, but he's still confident he can thrive in whatever role the Saints put him in.

“I’m the type of person, I’m gonna get what I get and do what I do with it. So whether it’s 20 carries or one carry, I’m gonna do the best of my ability every play,” Robinson said.

Robinson has shown flashes of success during his three years in the league. Injuries played a key role against him last season, which can ultimately put him as the third back on the depth chart. He will use the offseason to continue to improve and challenge his counterparts for playing time.

“I just gotta keep working,” Robinson. “It’s all love in the backfield. We all work together, try to help each other. So I think it’s a good thing we’ve got a full backfield again. So if anybody goes down, we’ve got another player right up there to do the same thing.”


Browns OL Michael Bowie itching to compete for starting spot
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/3/2015) Browns offensive lineman Michael Bowie is not required to report to training camp until the end of July. But never mind that - he's heading out after the last Independence Day firework explodes in the sky.

Bowie is itching to get started. He missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury after starting for Seattle on its Super Bowl title team in 2013. He is seeking to stay in tip-top shape in an attempt to land a starting spot on a Cleveland line that is the strength of the team.

"It's up to them to decide who is the best five," Bowie told the team website. "All I can do is take care of my business. Hopefully I can get a shot. That's what I'm working for."

Bowie participated fully in the offseason program, working mostly with the second team at right tackle. That will likely be the spot at which he competes for a starting job. Incumbent Mitchell Schwartz has not performed particularly well there and Mike Pettine has vowed there will be competition all over the field in camp.


Redskins OLB Ryan Kerrigan nearly recovered from knee surgery
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/3/2015) Redskins outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan appears to be on target to join the team for training camp after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery that prevented him from participating in earlier offseason activities.

Kerrigan, who registered a career-high 13 1/2 sacks a year ago, had the operation to alleviate pain in the area.

"My leg feels really good and I'm glad I got the surgery - not just for football but it makes my everyday life feel better so I'm glad I got it done," he told CSN Washington. "Now it's just a matter of getting stronger and getting into shape."

Kerrigan added that he's been running and now only needs to regain strength to insure his place at training camp.


Texans waive DT Brandon Ivory
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) The Texans waived rookie defensive tackle Brandon Ivory on Thursday, according to ESPN.com

Ivory was arrested on first degree burglary charges in Tuscaloosa, Ala. just one day ago. Ivory's agent Jeff Guerriero said Ivory is not guilty of the charge. 

"I spoke to Brandon he is not guilty and his name will be cleared of all charges," Guerriero said. 


Chargers TE Antonio Gates suspended 4 games for PED use
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Chargers tight end Antonio Gates has been suspended four games for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drugs policy, the team announced. 

It's unknown at this time what drug Gates tested positive for. Gates, in a statement, said he was unaware that he took a banned substance

"In my 12 years in the NFL, I have taken tremendous pride in upholding the integrity of the NFL shield and all that it entails," Gates said. "I have taken extreme care of my body with a holistic approach and I have never knowingly ingested a substance that was banned by the NFL. In an effort to recover from this past season, I used supplements and holistic medicines, and unfortunately, I have now learned that those substances always present a risk because they may contain banned substances even if the ingredient list doesn’t reflect them.

"As an NFL veteran and team leader, I should have done my due diligence to ensure that what I was taking for recovery was within the NFL guidelines. I understand that I am responsible for what is in my body and I have always believed that ignorance is no excuse when it comes to these issues. I take full responsibility for my actions. I’d like to express my sincere apologies to the Chargers, my teammates, coaches, fans and the league who have always supported me and expected and gotten nothing but the highest level of integrity from me."

With Gates out for four games, the Chargers will turn to Ladarius Green as the team's top tight end, though it was expected for Green to continue getting more looks in the passing game. Green is entering the final season of his rookie contract. 

The Chargers expressed disappointment in Gates for his suspension but plans to stick with the longtime veteran through the suspension. 

"We are tremendously disappointed for our team and our fans as well as Antonio, but no more disappointed than Antonio is with himself," the Chargers stated. "Antonio is a member of the Chargers' family and we will continue to support him 100-percent. We have the utmost confidence he will stay in excellent shape for the season and be ready to go when he returns in Week 5. While it's unfortunate to not have him to start the season, we have complete confidence our tight end group will continue to play at a high level."  


Packers' Datone Jones out 1 game for substance-abuse violation
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Packers defensive lineman Datone Jones will be suspended for one game for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy, according to NFL.com. 

Jones will miss Green Bay's season-opener against the Bears. In 2014, Jones totaled 22 tackles and 1 1/2 sacks in 13 games played. 


 
 
 
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