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Tricks of the trends after Week 3

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Here is a deep dive behind some of the key statistics (targets, red zone and goal line) for Fantasy football success to help give you a little edge in your weekly quest for victory.

• If you look at the Top 40 most targeted receivers in the NFL after three games, one very important name is missing. Fortunately for his Fantasy owners, Andre Johnson is making the most of his limited chances because he is currently tied for 42nd among all receivers with only six targets per game. Johnson has caught 13 of his 18 targets (72.7 percent) for 212 yards and two scores in his three games. He is averaging 11.8 yards and 1.84 points per target through three weeks, both fifth best among the 55 most targeted receivers. No wonder his one game with 100 yards and a touchdown came in Week 1 when he saw a season high 10 targets. Get the big dude the ball, Mr. Schaub!

• Looking for a couple of buy low candidates at wide receiver? Well how about these two gentlemen who currently in the bottom three respectively in both yards per target and points per target among the 55 most targeted receivers. I am talking about Kenny Britt (4.6 yards and 0.46 points per target) and Greg Jennings (3.6 yards and 0.36 points) who are both about to start producing some big time points. We are talking about two of the most efficient receivers in NFL history and both are battling through injuries. They will both be heavily targeted and they will get back to their career averages over 10 yards per target soon, so you want to get them while they are undervalued based on current performance.

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• One guy I am currently not as optimistic on is Jacksonville Jaguars rookie receiver Justin Blackmon. Blackmon is the league’s worst in all three key metrics after three weeks as he has turned 15 targets into four catches for 31 yards. Those are his three game totals and he is averaging the worst yards (2.1) and points per target (0.21) I have ever seen. The Jags do not look like they are in danger of turning into a passing juggernaut any time soon and if he can not show any signs of life against Cincinnati it may be time to abandon ship.

• Perhaps the biggest Fantasy disappointment at receiver this year is Jordy Nelson, who has just 13 catches for 167 yards and no scores through three games. So what is different about this year from last year for Nelson, who turned in the most efficient season ever for a wide receiver in 2011? Let’s compare the numbers really quickly. In 2011, Nelson averaged 5.9 targets per game, caught 71.6 percent of them and averaged 13.3 yards per target, 18.6 yards per catch and 2.3 points per target. This year, Nelson is actually seeing 6.3 targets per game while catching 68.4 percent of them and averaging 8.8 yards per target, 12.8 yards per catch and 0.88 points per target. Clearly, Nelson is not getting down the field or at the very least connecting on his deep targets as both his yards per catch and yards per target averages are down 4.5 and 5.8 yards respectively. Nelson also does not have a single touchdown in 19 targets after scoring once for every 6.1 in 2011. He won’t be as good as he was in 2011, but the Packers will get their offensive line issues figured out and Nelson is another excellent buy low candidate.

Santonio Holmes is currently sixth among all receivers with 33 targets through two games and is clearly the go to guy for Mark Sanchez. Even with his current 48.5 percent catch rate, Holmes is still averaging 5.3 catches and 81 yards receiving per game. If he continues to average over 10 targets per game, even the inefficient Holmes will be a Top 24 receiver at the end of the year because we know he can score touchdowns.

A.J. Green is the only receiver who has seen at least 10 targets in every game this year and it is no wonder that he is the number one Fantasy receiver as well. Green is also seventh with 21 catches, second with 311 yards and tied for fourth with two receiving scores.

• Keep your eye on Denarius Moore if you need some help at wide receiver. In two games, Moore has seen 18 targets and will be even more involved following the injury to Darrius Heyward-Bey. So far, Moore has caught only eight of those passes for 112 yards and a touchdown, but if last year was any indication, Moore will soon see dramatic jumps up from his current 6.2 yards per target and 14.0 yards per catch averages. After all, with Carson Palmer under center in 2011, Moore averaged over 10 yards per target and 21 yards per catch.

• After his sluggish start in Week 1, Wes Welker has seen 21 targets over the last two games and has caught 13 passes for 237 yards. Whether it be the injury to Aaron Hernandez or that Week 1 was an aberration, it seems that Welker is back to being himself.

• I love that DeSean Jackson is getting elite level targets at 9.7 per game (tied for 12th) but I want to see him do better than his current 48.3 percent catch rate. The volume is allowing Jackson to average just under 80 yards receiving per week, but he will need even more yards per game to be a solid Fantasy starter if his current touchdown drought continues. Believe it or not, DeSean Jackson has just two receiving touchdowns in his last 13 games and three in his last 17.

• The old man can still play the game down in Atlanta! With defenses worried about Julio Jones and Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez is off to a sensational start in 2012. He is catching 75 percent of his targets and leads all tight ends with 21 catches. Not only that, Gonzo is second with 214 yards, third with three touchdowns and most importantly, he is the No. 2 Fantasy tight end with 39 points.

Vernon Davis has an NFL best nine touchdowns in his last five games. He leads all tight ends with a 2.05 points per target average and has a ridiculous 20 percent touchdown rate thus far in 2012.

• The two worst tight ends through three weeks are Antonio Gates and Jason Witten and it is not even close. Gates has caught 7 of his 15 targets (46.7 percent) for just 65 yards and no scores. He is averaging a horrendous 4.3 yards per target and just 0.43 points per target. Those numbers only look better when compared to those of Witten, who is catching just 42 percent of his targets and is averaging 4.0 yards and 0.4 points per target. Of the two, I am much more concerned with Jason Witten because he seems to be significantly slower and less sure handed in years past. Witten’s spleen could be a big factor here and I wonder if he will ever get back to 100 percent this year. On the other hand, Gates has been getting open, but he just has made some uncharacteristic drops and that will get fixed. If I had to buy low on one of these two, it is definitely Gates.

• Not only did Kevin Smith go without a carry in Week 3, he also did not see a single target, so I think you can assume that he is doneski. Mikel Leshoure saw four targets in the game and caught all four of them for 34 yards and if the big fella can add some yards in the passing game every week, we will have a new Top 20 running back on our hands.

Target Leaders by position for Week 3: Wide receiver: Dwayne Bowe (16), Reggie Wayne (15), Santonio Holmes (14), Nate Burleson (12) and Brandon Lloyd (12); Tight end: Greg Olsen (14), Tony Gonzalez (12) and Brandon Pettigrew (12); Running back: Ryan Mathews (8) and Jamaal Charles (8).

Red Zone

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Matt Ryan is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL right now and there is no place where that has been clearer than in the red zone. Ryan leads the NFL with nine red zone scores through three weeks and his 39.1 percent scoring rate is the best among the 20 busiest quarterbacks inside the 20 yard line.

• Not as nice as Matty Ice: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Tony Romo have combined for only nine red zone scores this year, which is one of the chief reasons they are all struggling. Newton leads this group with 18 red zone chances (only five fewer than Ryan’s 23), but has just a 16.7 percent scoring rate. Brady has three scores on 14 chances, but he is usually Top 3 in red zone chances, not 16th. Neither Romo nor Rodgers are even in the Top 20 of quarterback red zone chances, which is why they have just three scores combined. They will get better, but there is a reason why the red zone is the money area for Fantasy football production.

• Well know that Darren McFadden and Jamaal Charles can score from anywhere on the field as evidenced by their long touchdown runs in Week 3. Hopefully they can start to give us some red zone scores as well and if they do, expect some monster weeks. McFadden has failed to score on 12 red zone opportunities this year (sixth most) and Charles has not found pay dirt on nine red zone chances (13th most).

• I want to thank the Cowboys for giving DeMarco Murray six red zone carries last week against Tampa Bay because they led to his first red zone score of the year. They must be big fans of the Tricks of the Trends. Now we just need them to throw the ball to Dez Bryant inside the 20 this week. Bryant has been Top 3 in terms of red zone scoring rate (over 40 percent for his career) but does not have a single red zone target in 2012. It is tough to score without any scoring looks, so get Dez the ball and he will get back to becoming a touchdown maker.

• I am not too worried about Marques Colston. His foot is healing and he still is Top 10 with four red zone targets. He has yet to score, but the touchdowns will come and you can snag Colston on the very cheap right now.

Julio Jones already topped his rookie total of two red zone scores with his third such score in Week 3 of 2012. He leads all wide receivers with seven red zone targets and is poised for a double digit touchdown season.

Heath Miller has more red zone targets (eight) and touchdowns (four) than any player in the NFL. He has been highlighted every week in this article and if he continues to be such a focal point in scoring situations, he will have a career year and finish in the Top 10 at tight end.

Goal Line

Robert Griffin III is like a great goal line back. He has scored on all four of his goal line chances this year and his four scores from up close are as many as Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers have on a combined 16 chances.

Doug Martin is the only running back with at least four goal line chances who has yet to score a touchdown up close in 2012. With his heavy workload, if Martin can start to convert these scoring chances we will have a Top 12 muscle hamster on our hands.

Arian Foster leads the league with both eight goal line chances and three goal line scores. That’s exactly what you want from the top overall pick.

• If LeSean McCoy only gets one goal line carry every three games, he will have no chance to repeat his monster season of 2011. Last year, McCoy averaged 1.7 goal line carries per week (second most in the NFL) and scored 11 times from inside the 5-yard line.

• Miller leads at the goal line as well with six targets and four touchdowns, so yes he does have more goal line scores than any running back in the NFL, which is mind boggling when you think of it.

• However, a tip of the cap is also in order for Vernon Davis, Kyle Rudolph and Rob Gronkowski who have all converted both of their goal line targets into touchdowns this year.

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Player News
Giants' Odell Beckham says he played with hamstring tears
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:24 am ET) Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham said he played all season with two tears in his hamstrings, according to the New York Daily News.

Beckham took part in the Pro Bowl on Sunday, but admitted he's still not fully healed. Beckham said the injuries prevented him from getting to that "last gear that I wanted to have." He added that the injuries really bothered him against the Eagles and Colts. Beckham said he was "stumbling" and falling over during those games. He added that he's not sure whether he'll ever be 100 percent again.

The rookie had a tremendous season, hauling in 91 balls for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns. 


Patriots' Tom Brady meeting with NFL after Super Bowl 49
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Patriots quarterback Tom Brady doesn't expect to meet with the NFL until after Super Bowl 49, according to NFL.com.

The Patriots have been in the headlines all week due to DeflateGate, and it appears the situation won't be resolved until after the season. "I believe they're going to do [a meeting] after the season," Brady said. "So we'll deal with it after this game. I think everybody is locked in, ready to go for the Super Bowl." Both Brady and coach Bill Belichick have held separate press conferences during the week to deny the team's involvement in deflating their footballs. 

The Patriots are subject to punishment from the NFL if the leauge finds any wrongdoing during the investigation. 


Earl Thomas on bad shoulder: 'I'll still play fearless'
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Seahawks safety Earl Thomas, who dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game, could remain limited in practice this week ahead of the Super Bowl, reports the Seattle Times. But he said he won't be thinking about the injury against the Patriots.

"When I come alive nothing is limited,’’ he said. “I’ll still play fearless, throw my body around, and let whatever happens, happens.’’

Thomas did allow that he might have to rely more on his teammates.

“My mindset is I have an opportunity to really trust my teammates,’’ he said. “This is the first game I’m going to have to trust them because of my injury. So I really, really, really trust my teammates, and that’s what I’m banking on, my teammates doing what they need to do and I need to come through myself.’’

It's unclear if Thomas will need offseason surgery.

The Seahawks are 1-point underdogs after opening as 2.5-point favorites.


Colts QB Matt Hasselbeck pondering retirement
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Colts backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck told ESPN.com he's not sure if he'll retire or return for a 17th season. Hasselbeck, 39, appeared in four games this season and played well, posting a 102.6 passer rating.

He's set to hit unrestricted free agency.


Colts expected to part ways with center A.Q. Shipley
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Colts center A.Q. Shipley is headed for unrestricted free agency, and the team is expected to let him go, reports ESPN.com. 

"Shipley went from starting in Week 1 to losing his starting job, to being inactive, to being the third-string center," the report said. "All without any explanation from coach Chuck Pagano or anybody in the front office."

Shipley, 28, has played in 45 career games, starting 19.


Report: Dolphins aim to re-sign TE Charles Clay
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) The Dolphins have privately indicated they want to re-sign impending free agent tight end Charles Clay and will make him an offer in coming weeks, reports the Miami Herald. Clay caught 58 passes for 605 yards and three touchdowns in 14 games this season.

Miami also is high on Clay's backup, Dion Sims, who's signed through 2016, the paper said.


Browns extremely thin -- and short -- at wide receiver
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) With wideout Josh Gordon facing a one-year suspension, the Browns are dangerously thin at receiver entering 2015. ESPN.com notes the Browns have two returning slot receivers in Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel and "an undersized situational receiver" in 5-10 Travis Benjamin.

Miles Austin is scheduled for unrestricted free agency after catching 47 passes for 568 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games. Tight end Jordan Cameron also is set to be an unrestricted free agent.

Hawkins, a 5-7, 180-pounder, led the team with 63 grabs for 824 yards, with two touchdowns. Cleveland failed to add a wideout in last year's draft but almost certainly must address the position in the 2015 draft.


Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas to practice this week
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told SiriusXM NFL Radio that cornerback Richard Sherman (elbow) and safety Earl Thomas (shoulder) will practice this week and should be "good to go" for the Super Bowl. Both got hurt in the NFC Championship Game.

Seattle is a 1-point underdog to the Patriots after opening as a 2.5-point favorite.


New optimism regarding Justin Blackmon's potential return
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) A lot of people inside the NFL are optimistic Jaguars receiver Justin Blackmon is "overcoming his issues" and will be back in the league in 2015, reports Fox Sports. Blackmon got suspended in November 2013 following his third violation of the league's substance-abuse policy.

He checked into a treatment facility last September. General manager Dave Caldwell said recently he hopes Blackmon wins reinstatement, but is not counting on it.


Reports: Josh Gordon tests positive again, facing 1-year ban
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Browns wideout Josh Gordon tested positive for alcohol and "now will be subject to a one-year banishment," sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter. Gordon was suspended for the first 10 games this season for a repeat violation of the league's drug policy.

Pro Football Talk reports that because of Gordon's past DUI, alcohol was one of the substances for which he was being tested. The website said a one-year suspension is likely a "done deal."

The Browns also suspended Gordon for missing a Saturday walkthrough before the regular-season finale, and CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reported then the Browns might be ready to part ways with the ultra-talented 23-year-old.

The Browns released the following statement regarding the news: 

"Clearly we are very disappointed to hear the latest report regarding Josh. At this point, due to the confidential nature of the NFL’s substance abuse policy, we have not been made aware by the league of a failed test. We are in the process of gathering more information and will provide further comment at the appropriate time."


 
 
 
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