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Tricks of the trends after Week 3

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Here is a deep dive behind some of the key statistics (targets, red zone and goal line) for Fantasy football success to help give you a little edge in your weekly quest for victory.

• If you look at the Top 40 most targeted receivers in the NFL after three games, one very important name is missing. Fortunately for his Fantasy owners, Andre Johnson is making the most of his limited chances because he is currently tied for 42nd among all receivers with only six targets per game. Johnson has caught 13 of his 18 targets (72.7 percent) for 212 yards and two scores in his three games. He is averaging 11.8 yards and 1.84 points per target through three weeks, both fifth best among the 55 most targeted receivers. No wonder his one game with 100 yards and a touchdown came in Week 1 when he saw a season high 10 targets. Get the big dude the ball, Mr. Schaub!

• Looking for a couple of buy low candidates at wide receiver? Well how about these two gentlemen who currently in the bottom three respectively in both yards per target and points per target among the 55 most targeted receivers. I am talking about Kenny Britt (4.6 yards and 0.46 points per target) and Greg Jennings (3.6 yards and 0.36 points) who are both about to start producing some big time points. We are talking about two of the most efficient receivers in NFL history and both are battling through injuries. They will both be heavily targeted and they will get back to their career averages over 10 yards per target soon, so you want to get them while they are undervalued based on current performance.

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• One guy I am currently not as optimistic on is Jacksonville Jaguars rookie receiver Justin Blackmon. Blackmon is the league’s worst in all three key metrics after three weeks as he has turned 15 targets into four catches for 31 yards. Those are his three game totals and he is averaging the worst yards (2.1) and points per target (0.21) I have ever seen. The Jags do not look like they are in danger of turning into a passing juggernaut any time soon and if he can not show any signs of life against Cincinnati it may be time to abandon ship.

• Perhaps the biggest Fantasy disappointment at receiver this year is Jordy Nelson, who has just 13 catches for 167 yards and no scores through three games. So what is different about this year from last year for Nelson, who turned in the most efficient season ever for a wide receiver in 2011? Let’s compare the numbers really quickly. In 2011, Nelson averaged 5.9 targets per game, caught 71.6 percent of them and averaged 13.3 yards per target, 18.6 yards per catch and 2.3 points per target. This year, Nelson is actually seeing 6.3 targets per game while catching 68.4 percent of them and averaging 8.8 yards per target, 12.8 yards per catch and 0.88 points per target. Clearly, Nelson is not getting down the field or at the very least connecting on his deep targets as both his yards per catch and yards per target averages are down 4.5 and 5.8 yards respectively. Nelson also does not have a single touchdown in 19 targets after scoring once for every 6.1 in 2011. He won’t be as good as he was in 2011, but the Packers will get their offensive line issues figured out and Nelson is another excellent buy low candidate.

Santonio Holmes is currently sixth among all receivers with 33 targets through two games and is clearly the go to guy for Mark Sanchez. Even with his current 48.5 percent catch rate, Holmes is still averaging 5.3 catches and 81 yards receiving per game. If he continues to average over 10 targets per game, even the inefficient Holmes will be a Top 24 receiver at the end of the year because we know he can score touchdowns.

A.J. Green is the only receiver who has seen at least 10 targets in every game this year and it is no wonder that he is the number one Fantasy receiver as well. Green is also seventh with 21 catches, second with 311 yards and tied for fourth with two receiving scores.

• Keep your eye on Denarius Moore if you need some help at wide receiver. In two games, Moore has seen 18 targets and will be even more involved following the injury to Darrius Heyward-Bey. So far, Moore has caught only eight of those passes for 112 yards and a touchdown, but if last year was any indication, Moore will soon see dramatic jumps up from his current 6.2 yards per target and 14.0 yards per catch averages. After all, with Carson Palmer under center in 2011, Moore averaged over 10 yards per target and 21 yards per catch.

• After his sluggish start in Week 1, Wes Welker has seen 21 targets over the last two games and has caught 13 passes for 237 yards. Whether it be the injury to Aaron Hernandez or that Week 1 was an aberration, it seems that Welker is back to being himself.

• I love that DeSean Jackson is getting elite level targets at 9.7 per game (tied for 12th) but I want to see him do better than his current 48.3 percent catch rate. The volume is allowing Jackson to average just under 80 yards receiving per week, but he will need even more yards per game to be a solid Fantasy starter if his current touchdown drought continues. Believe it or not, DeSean Jackson has just two receiving touchdowns in his last 13 games and three in his last 17.

• The old man can still play the game down in Atlanta! With defenses worried about Julio Jones and Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez is off to a sensational start in 2012. He is catching 75 percent of his targets and leads all tight ends with 21 catches. Not only that, Gonzo is second with 214 yards, third with three touchdowns and most importantly, he is the No. 2 Fantasy tight end with 39 points.

Vernon Davis has an NFL best nine touchdowns in his last five games. He leads all tight ends with a 2.05 points per target average and has a ridiculous 20 percent touchdown rate thus far in 2012.

• The two worst tight ends through three weeks are Antonio Gates and Jason Witten and it is not even close. Gates has caught 7 of his 15 targets (46.7 percent) for just 65 yards and no scores. He is averaging a horrendous 4.3 yards per target and just 0.43 points per target. Those numbers only look better when compared to those of Witten, who is catching just 42 percent of his targets and is averaging 4.0 yards and 0.4 points per target. Of the two, I am much more concerned with Jason Witten because he seems to be significantly slower and less sure handed in years past. Witten’s spleen could be a big factor here and I wonder if he will ever get back to 100 percent this year. On the other hand, Gates has been getting open, but he just has made some uncharacteristic drops and that will get fixed. If I had to buy low on one of these two, it is definitely Gates.

• Not only did Kevin Smith go without a carry in Week 3, he also did not see a single target, so I think you can assume that he is doneski. Mikel Leshoure saw four targets in the game and caught all four of them for 34 yards and if the big fella can add some yards in the passing game every week, we will have a new Top 20 running back on our hands.

Target Leaders by position for Week 3: Wide receiver: Dwayne Bowe (16), Reggie Wayne (15), Santonio Holmes (14), Nate Burleson (12) and Brandon Lloyd (12); Tight end: Greg Olsen (14), Tony Gonzalez (12) and Brandon Pettigrew (12); Running back: Ryan Mathews (8) and Jamaal Charles (8).

Red Zone

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Matt Ryan is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL right now and there is no place where that has been clearer than in the red zone. Ryan leads the NFL with nine red zone scores through three weeks and his 39.1 percent scoring rate is the best among the 20 busiest quarterbacks inside the 20 yard line.

• Not as nice as Matty Ice: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Tony Romo have combined for only nine red zone scores this year, which is one of the chief reasons they are all struggling. Newton leads this group with 18 red zone chances (only five fewer than Ryan’s 23), but has just a 16.7 percent scoring rate. Brady has three scores on 14 chances, but he is usually Top 3 in red zone chances, not 16th. Neither Romo nor Rodgers are even in the Top 20 of quarterback red zone chances, which is why they have just three scores combined. They will get better, but there is a reason why the red zone is the money area for Fantasy football production.

• Well know that Darren McFadden and Jamaal Charles can score from anywhere on the field as evidenced by their long touchdown runs in Week 3. Hopefully they can start to give us some red zone scores as well and if they do, expect some monster weeks. McFadden has failed to score on 12 red zone opportunities this year (sixth most) and Charles has not found pay dirt on nine red zone chances (13th most).

• I want to thank the Cowboys for giving DeMarco Murray six red zone carries last week against Tampa Bay because they led to his first red zone score of the year. They must be big fans of the Tricks of the Trends. Now we just need them to throw the ball to Dez Bryant inside the 20 this week. Bryant has been Top 3 in terms of red zone scoring rate (over 40 percent for his career) but does not have a single red zone target in 2012. It is tough to score without any scoring looks, so get Dez the ball and he will get back to becoming a touchdown maker.

• I am not too worried about Marques Colston. His foot is healing and he still is Top 10 with four red zone targets. He has yet to score, but the touchdowns will come and you can snag Colston on the very cheap right now.

Julio Jones already topped his rookie total of two red zone scores with his third such score in Week 3 of 2012. He leads all wide receivers with seven red zone targets and is poised for a double digit touchdown season.

Heath Miller has more red zone targets (eight) and touchdowns (four) than any player in the NFL. He has been highlighted every week in this article and if he continues to be such a focal point in scoring situations, he will have a career year and finish in the Top 10 at tight end.

Goal Line

Robert Griffin III is like a great goal line back. He has scored on all four of his goal line chances this year and his four scores from up close are as many as Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers have on a combined 16 chances.

Doug Martin is the only running back with at least four goal line chances who has yet to score a touchdown up close in 2012. With his heavy workload, if Martin can start to convert these scoring chances we will have a Top 12 muscle hamster on our hands.

Arian Foster leads the league with both eight goal line chances and three goal line scores. That’s exactly what you want from the top overall pick.

• If LeSean McCoy only gets one goal line carry every three games, he will have no chance to repeat his monster season of 2011. Last year, McCoy averaged 1.7 goal line carries per week (second most in the NFL) and scored 11 times from inside the 5-yard line.

• Miller leads at the goal line as well with six targets and four touchdowns, so yes he does have more goal line scores than any running back in the NFL, which is mind boggling when you think of it.

• However, a tip of the cap is also in order for Vernon Davis, Kyle Rudolph and Rob Gronkowski who have all converted both of their goal line targets into touchdowns this year.

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Player News
Bears release troubled DT Ray McDonald after second arrest
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(4:39 pm ET) The Bears have announced that they have released troubled defensive tackle Ray McDonald, the Chicago Tribune has reported.

McDonald was arrested in California for domestic violence and child endangerment. It marked his second arrest in six months. He received the same fate in December for sexual assault and domestic violence before signing with the Bears in the offseason.

The 30-year-old McDonald has been a full-time starter in the NFL since 2008. He was an All-Pro in 2011.


Chargers S Eric Weddle not expected to attend OTAs
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(4:34 pm ET) Chargers safety Eric Weddle is not expected to attend Tuesday's start of offseason training activities as he and the team remain far apart on talks for a contract extension, per NFL.com. 

Weddle is in the final season of his deal, but has been extremely vocal about his desire to have a new contract in place before taking part in team activities. Weddle contributed to 114 tackles last season and has averaged 103 over his last seven years.

While attendance is voluntary, Weddle's absence could mark the start of a long stalemate between the parties. 


Broncos' Tevrin Brandon hit by car, suffers minor injuries
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(2:25 pm ET) Broncos cornerback Tevrin Brandon was hospitalized on Sunday after getting hit by the car while crossing the street, the team confirmed to the Denver Post.

Police believe that Brandon was struck by a Ford F-150 pickup in Belmar, New Jersey. The driver then fled the scene. 

Brandon suffered minor injuries and was relesaed from the hospital after a brief stay. He's expected to participate in Broncos' OTAs, which start on Wednesday. 


Report: Bears DT Ray McDonald arrested for domestic violence
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(12:09 pm ET) According to NBC Bay Area reporter Damian Trujillo, Bears defensive tackle Ray McDonald has been arrested for domestic violence and possible child endangerment in California. No other information has been made available.

McDonald, who was released by the 49ers last December after being arrested in the second of separate sexual assualt and domestic violence cases, signed with the Bears in the offseason and said he was planning to sue the accuser in one of his sexual assault charges. 


Report: Vikings' Adrian Peterson won't attend OTAs on Tuesday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(5/24/2015) Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is reportedly set to skip organized team activities on Tuesday, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Peterson is frustrated with management in Minnesota for not showing him support through his legal case for child abuse. Peterson has not participated in any offseason activities so far, but skipping Tuesday's workout will cost him $250,000 in bonuses if he does not attend 90 percent of OTAs and minicamps.

Peterson has three years, $44.25 million left on his contract with Minnesota.


Cardinals S Tyrann Mathieu finally cast-free
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(5/24/2015) After a couple of injury-plagued seasons, Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu enters training camp almost completely healthy, without a brace on his knee or cast on his thumb, per NFL.com. 

The Cardinals will need a healthy Mathieu to offseason the loss of former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and cornerback Antonio Cromartie. In two seasons, Mathieu has 100 tackles and three interceptions but has been hampered by nagging injuries. 

"It just feels good to be free," he said. 


Giants' Bennett Jackson making transition to safety
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(5/23/2015) Giants second-year cornerback Bennett Jackson is spending the offseason transitioning to safety. 

"At the end of the day, I’m a DB,’" Jackson said, per the New York Post. "I think my strengths are cover skills, I got good speed and I got good ball skills. The thing it’s gonna take for me to get out there and make an impact is, I just got to learn the defense and really just communicate the calls fluently."

"It is all in front of him," coach Tom Coughlin said. "We think he can cover. He has done a good job of getting us lined up and then we will see how he plays."


O'Brien impressed with Jadeveon Clowney's work ethic
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(5/23/2015) Texans coach Bill O'Brien has been impressed with the work defensive end Jadeveon Clowney has put in to recover from microfracture surgery in his knee. 

"I've been impressed with the way JD's been working," O'Brien said, per HoustonTexans.com. "He's been out there. He's in early. He's rehabbing. But he's also being able to take part in some of the things that we do in the weight room. He's not able to do all of the things that we do on the field just yet, because of his rehab. But he's on the right track."


AJ McCarron throwing deep for Bengals
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(5/23/2015) Bengals quarterback AJ McCarron has recovered from the shoulder soreness that bothered him for most of his rookie year. 

McCarron is now throwing deep again. "I feel great," McCarron said, per the Cincinnati Enquirer. "Body feels great and I feel like I'm slinging it better than I ever have, really."


Brooks Reed injured, may miss time at Falcons' OTAs
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(5/23/2015) Falcons linebacker Brooks Reed suffered a groin injury during the recently-completed voluntary minicamp, per ESPN.

The injury was termed "minor", but it still might keep Reed from full participation in the Falcons' upcoming OTAs, which start Tuesday. 


 
 
 
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