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Tricks of the trends after Week 3

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Here is a deep dive behind some of the key statistics (targets, red zone and goal line) for Fantasy football success to help give you a little edge in your weekly quest for victory.

• If you look at the Top 40 most targeted receivers in the NFL after three games, one very important name is missing. Fortunately for his Fantasy owners, Andre Johnson is making the most of his limited chances because he is currently tied for 42nd among all receivers with only six targets per game. Johnson has caught 13 of his 18 targets (72.7 percent) for 212 yards and two scores in his three games. He is averaging 11.8 yards and 1.84 points per target through three weeks, both fifth best among the 55 most targeted receivers. No wonder his one game with 100 yards and a touchdown came in Week 1 when he saw a season high 10 targets. Get the big dude the ball, Mr. Schaub!

• Looking for a couple of buy low candidates at wide receiver? Well how about these two gentlemen who currently in the bottom three respectively in both yards per target and points per target among the 55 most targeted receivers. I am talking about Kenny Britt (4.6 yards and 0.46 points per target) and Greg Jennings (3.6 yards and 0.36 points) who are both about to start producing some big time points. We are talking about two of the most efficient receivers in NFL history and both are battling through injuries. They will both be heavily targeted and they will get back to their career averages over 10 yards per target soon, so you want to get them while they are undervalued based on current performance.

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• One guy I am currently not as optimistic on is Jacksonville Jaguars rookie receiver Justin Blackmon. Blackmon is the league’s worst in all three key metrics after three weeks as he has turned 15 targets into four catches for 31 yards. Those are his three game totals and he is averaging the worst yards (2.1) and points per target (0.21) I have ever seen. The Jags do not look like they are in danger of turning into a passing juggernaut any time soon and if he can not show any signs of life against Cincinnati it may be time to abandon ship.

• Perhaps the biggest Fantasy disappointment at receiver this year is Jordy Nelson, who has just 13 catches for 167 yards and no scores through three games. So what is different about this year from last year for Nelson, who turned in the most efficient season ever for a wide receiver in 2011? Let’s compare the numbers really quickly. In 2011, Nelson averaged 5.9 targets per game, caught 71.6 percent of them and averaged 13.3 yards per target, 18.6 yards per catch and 2.3 points per target. This year, Nelson is actually seeing 6.3 targets per game while catching 68.4 percent of them and averaging 8.8 yards per target, 12.8 yards per catch and 0.88 points per target. Clearly, Nelson is not getting down the field or at the very least connecting on his deep targets as both his yards per catch and yards per target averages are down 4.5 and 5.8 yards respectively. Nelson also does not have a single touchdown in 19 targets after scoring once for every 6.1 in 2011. He won’t be as good as he was in 2011, but the Packers will get their offensive line issues figured out and Nelson is another excellent buy low candidate.

Santonio Holmes is currently sixth among all receivers with 33 targets through two games and is clearly the go to guy for Mark Sanchez. Even with his current 48.5 percent catch rate, Holmes is still averaging 5.3 catches and 81 yards receiving per game. If he continues to average over 10 targets per game, even the inefficient Holmes will be a Top 24 receiver at the end of the year because we know he can score touchdowns.

A.J. Green is the only receiver who has seen at least 10 targets in every game this year and it is no wonder that he is the number one Fantasy receiver as well. Green is also seventh with 21 catches, second with 311 yards and tied for fourth with two receiving scores.

• Keep your eye on Denarius Moore if you need some help at wide receiver. In two games, Moore has seen 18 targets and will be even more involved following the injury to Darrius Heyward-Bey. So far, Moore has caught only eight of those passes for 112 yards and a touchdown, but if last year was any indication, Moore will soon see dramatic jumps up from his current 6.2 yards per target and 14.0 yards per catch averages. After all, with Carson Palmer under center in 2011, Moore averaged over 10 yards per target and 21 yards per catch.

• After his sluggish start in Week 1, Wes Welker has seen 21 targets over the last two games and has caught 13 passes for 237 yards. Whether it be the injury to Aaron Hernandez or that Week 1 was an aberration, it seems that Welker is back to being himself.

• I love that DeSean Jackson is getting elite level targets at 9.7 per game (tied for 12th) but I want to see him do better than his current 48.3 percent catch rate. The volume is allowing Jackson to average just under 80 yards receiving per week, but he will need even more yards per game to be a solid Fantasy starter if his current touchdown drought continues. Believe it or not, DeSean Jackson has just two receiving touchdowns in his last 13 games and three in his last 17.

• The old man can still play the game down in Atlanta! With defenses worried about Julio Jones and Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez is off to a sensational start in 2012. He is catching 75 percent of his targets and leads all tight ends with 21 catches. Not only that, Gonzo is second with 214 yards, third with three touchdowns and most importantly, he is the No. 2 Fantasy tight end with 39 points.

Vernon Davis has an NFL best nine touchdowns in his last five games. He leads all tight ends with a 2.05 points per target average and has a ridiculous 20 percent touchdown rate thus far in 2012.

• The two worst tight ends through three weeks are Antonio Gates and Jason Witten and it is not even close. Gates has caught 7 of his 15 targets (46.7 percent) for just 65 yards and no scores. He is averaging a horrendous 4.3 yards per target and just 0.43 points per target. Those numbers only look better when compared to those of Witten, who is catching just 42 percent of his targets and is averaging 4.0 yards and 0.4 points per target. Of the two, I am much more concerned with Jason Witten because he seems to be significantly slower and less sure handed in years past. Witten’s spleen could be a big factor here and I wonder if he will ever get back to 100 percent this year. On the other hand, Gates has been getting open, but he just has made some uncharacteristic drops and that will get fixed. If I had to buy low on one of these two, it is definitely Gates.

• Not only did Kevin Smith go without a carry in Week 3, he also did not see a single target, so I think you can assume that he is doneski. Mikel Leshoure saw four targets in the game and caught all four of them for 34 yards and if the big fella can add some yards in the passing game every week, we will have a new Top 20 running back on our hands.

Target Leaders by position for Week 3: Wide receiver: Dwayne Bowe (16), Reggie Wayne (15), Santonio Holmes (14), Nate Burleson (12) and Brandon Lloyd (12); Tight end: Greg Olsen (14), Tony Gonzalez (12) and Brandon Pettigrew (12); Running back: Ryan Mathews (8) and Jamaal Charles (8).

Red Zone

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Matt Ryan is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL right now and there is no place where that has been clearer than in the red zone. Ryan leads the NFL with nine red zone scores through three weeks and his 39.1 percent scoring rate is the best among the 20 busiest quarterbacks inside the 20 yard line.

• Not as nice as Matty Ice: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Tony Romo have combined for only nine red zone scores this year, which is one of the chief reasons they are all struggling. Newton leads this group with 18 red zone chances (only five fewer than Ryan’s 23), but has just a 16.7 percent scoring rate. Brady has three scores on 14 chances, but he is usually Top 3 in red zone chances, not 16th. Neither Romo nor Rodgers are even in the Top 20 of quarterback red zone chances, which is why they have just three scores combined. They will get better, but there is a reason why the red zone is the money area for Fantasy football production.

• Well know that Darren McFadden and Jamaal Charles can score from anywhere on the field as evidenced by their long touchdown runs in Week 3. Hopefully they can start to give us some red zone scores as well and if they do, expect some monster weeks. McFadden has failed to score on 12 red zone opportunities this year (sixth most) and Charles has not found pay dirt on nine red zone chances (13th most).

• I want to thank the Cowboys for giving DeMarco Murray six red zone carries last week against Tampa Bay because they led to his first red zone score of the year. They must be big fans of the Tricks of the Trends. Now we just need them to throw the ball to Dez Bryant inside the 20 this week. Bryant has been Top 3 in terms of red zone scoring rate (over 40 percent for his career) but does not have a single red zone target in 2012. It is tough to score without any scoring looks, so get Dez the ball and he will get back to becoming a touchdown maker.

• I am not too worried about Marques Colston. His foot is healing and he still is Top 10 with four red zone targets. He has yet to score, but the touchdowns will come and you can snag Colston on the very cheap right now.

Julio Jones already topped his rookie total of two red zone scores with his third such score in Week 3 of 2012. He leads all wide receivers with seven red zone targets and is poised for a double digit touchdown season.

Heath Miller has more red zone targets (eight) and touchdowns (four) than any player in the NFL. He has been highlighted every week in this article and if he continues to be such a focal point in scoring situations, he will have a career year and finish in the Top 10 at tight end.

Goal Line

Robert Griffin III is like a great goal line back. He has scored on all four of his goal line chances this year and his four scores from up close are as many as Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers have on a combined 16 chances.

Doug Martin is the only running back with at least four goal line chances who has yet to score a touchdown up close in 2012. With his heavy workload, if Martin can start to convert these scoring chances we will have a Top 12 muscle hamster on our hands.

Arian Foster leads the league with both eight goal line chances and three goal line scores. That’s exactly what you want from the top overall pick.

• If LeSean McCoy only gets one goal line carry every three games, he will have no chance to repeat his monster season of 2011. Last year, McCoy averaged 1.7 goal line carries per week (second most in the NFL) and scored 11 times from inside the 5-yard line.

• Miller leads at the goal line as well with six targets and four touchdowns, so yes he does have more goal line scores than any running back in the NFL, which is mind boggling when you think of it.

• However, a tip of the cap is also in order for Vernon Davis, Kyle Rudolph and Rob Gronkowski who have all converted both of their goal line targets into touchdowns this year.

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Player News
Cowboys' Randy Gregory: 'I don't think it's a weed problem'
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:04 pm ET) Despite failing a drug test at the scouting combine in February, Cowboys defensive end Randy Gregory said he doesn't have a marijuana problem, reports The Dallas Morning News.

"I haven't touched it," he said. "I'm feeling real good, too. This is a high in itself, to be honest. I'm high on life right now, and I don't want to lose this high."

Gregory did admit that his decision making needs to improve, which he said will come with more maturity.

"That's something I've definitely been working on and something I can definitely fix," Gregory said. "I'm 22 years old, but I think I carry myself real well and I think I need to carry myself a little bit better as far as decision making goes. I think a lot of people are getting tied up in the weed and think it's just a weed problem. I don't think it's a weed problem. I think it's decision making. I think I'm immature. I'm definitely working on that. I want to prove everyone wrong and I want to do it with this team. I think this is the best team I can do that with."


Cowboys' Rolando McClain has 2013 charges dismissed
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(10:56 am ET) Prosecutors dismissed the 2013 charges against Cowboys linebacker Rolando McClain, reports the Associated Press.

Court records obtained by the Associated Press indicated charges from an April 2013 incident were dismissed. During the incident, McClain was arrested after he allegedly cursed at officers. He was convicted of misdemeanor charges for resisting arrest and disorderly conduct, but appealed for another trial.


Packers bypass option on Nick Perry's contract
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(10:30 am ET) The Packers decided not to exercise the fifth-year option in linebacker Nick Perry's contract, reports the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

By bypassing the option, Perry can become a free agent after the 2015 season. In 2014, he produced 23 tackles and three sacks in 15 games.


Bucs GM: Jameis Winston will have 'every opportunity' to be starter
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9:54 am ET) With the Buccaneers taking quarterback Jameis Winston with the first overall pick in the 2015 draft, general manager Jason Licht said Winston will be given a chance to win the starting role in Week 1, reports NBCSports.com.

"It's pretty difficult to say with a straight face that we're not going to give Jameis that opportunity to win it right away," Licht said. "He's the first overall pick. We think he's very advanced in terms of his ability to play and pick up schemes and concepts and learn the playbook relative to most rookies, or any rookie we've scouted in recent history. So he's gonna have every opportunity."

Winston will be competing with quarterback Mike Glennon for the starting role.


Chargers' Philip Rivers on trade rumors: Didn't come from me
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9:41 am ET) Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers denied that he or his representatives were behind the trade rumors involving him and the Titans, reports ESPN.com.

"I not once, nor did Jimmy [Sexton, his agent], ever say anything about [wanting to be] traded," he said. "I don't know what the story is. I'm here. And glad that I am... I'm willing to listen to an extension. I am willing to play it out. What's so wrong about that approach?"

Rivers can become a free agent after the 2015 season and he said he's only concerned with the upcoming season.

"It's not the day before free agency starts next year. It's business as usual for me around here," Rivers said. "Not trying to be difficult. Just feel that it's a dead story."


Report: Patriots to release Alfonzo Dennard
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9:19 am ET) The Patriots plan to waive cornerback Alfonzo Dennard on Tuesday, reports NFL.com.

Dennard appeared in six games last season and produced 15 tackles with one interception.


Titans' Lewan says QB Mettenberger still views himself as starter
by Ted Leshinski | Staff Writer
(5/4/2015) Even though the Titans drafted quarterback Marcus Mariota with the second-overall pick, tackle Taylor Lewan said that QB Zach Mettenberger, who started six games last season as a rookie, still regards himself as the starter, reports the Tennessean.com.

"That is the mentality that Zach has. He thinks of himself as a starter, and the guys in the locker room do also," Lewan said. "I don't think he is going to give it up easily,"
Lewan was the Titans' first-round pick in last year's draft.

Browns' Pettine: Josh McCown favorite to enter camp as starter
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/4/2015) Browns coach Mike Pettine said in a radio interview Monday that it's "fair to say" that Josh McCown will enter camp as the team's starting quarterback, the Northeast Ohio Media Group reports.

Pettine had said in April that he wasn't ready to name McCown the likely starter for anything, but after the Browns came out of draft weekend without a new quarterback on the roster, it appears the former Buccaneers starter is in line to open camp atop the depth chart at the position.

McCown started 11 games with the Buccaneers last season, completing 56.3 percent of his passes while throwing 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.


Bengals' Tyler Eifert (shoulder) on track for start of camp
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/4/2015) Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert is on target to participate from the start of training camp, Bengals.com reports.

Eifert tore his labrum last offseason and dislocated his elbow in the first quarter of his first regular-season game. Rather than return late in the year, he and the team opted for season-ending shoulder surgery. The tight end said that his elbow has been cleared and he's waiting to receive clearance on his shoulder in a few weeks.

"I tried to play through the year. Once I had elbow surgery and I wasn’t going to come back, then I just got the shoulder done," Eifert said. "That’s why I’m excited now because I’m feeling strong, feeling upbeat. I’m not in any pain. It feels good."


49ers' Justin Smith to announce retirement decision in May
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/4/2015) 49ers defensive end Justin Smith plans to sit down with team officials in May and decide whether he'll return for one more season, the Sacramento Bee reports.

"You'll know in about three weeks or so," Smith said Monday.

Smith wouldn't say which way he was leaning. He indicated that the the team's decision to draft a defensive lineman in the first round of the draft did not signal his impending retirement.

"We gave Justin liberty to make his own decision on his time frame," Baalke said after selecting Arik Armstead Thursday. "We went into the draft not thinking about what decision Justin’s going to make or not going to make. We just went in to find the best football player, the best system fit that we could."


 
 
 
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