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Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 7

Senior Fantasy Writer
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As we wade into a seventh week of action, there are some nuggets that are too in-depth for the podcast, too smart for Twitter and a little too short for the full column. Enjoy these Week 7 Quick Fantasy Hits:

Your byes for Week 7: Atlanta, Denver, Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego.

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Speaking of bye weeks ... Take a quick look at these numbers:
Tony Romo: 25-for-36, 261 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception (20 points)
Matthew Stafford: 22-for-45, 311 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception (22 points)
Carson Palmer: 23-for-33, 353 yards, one touchdown, one interception (16 points)
Josh Freeman: 15-for-26, 328 yards, three touchdowns, one interception (29 points)

Besides "they all threw an interception," these four quarterbacks all had one thing in common: they were coming off a bye in Week 6. Of the six quarterbacks who have played following a bye week, four had marked improvements over their average in their pre-bye week numbers. And only Ben Roethlisberger saw his stats take a hit. Observe:

Ben Roethlisberger
Weeks 1-3: 27 point average
Week 5: 15 points

Andrew Luck
Weeks 1-3: 20 point average
Week 5: 32 points

Tony Romo
Weeks 1-4: 14 point average
Week 6: 20 points

Matthew Stafford
Weeks 1-4: 16.75 point average
Week 6: 22 points

Carson Palmer
Weeks 1-4: 17 point average
Week 6: 16 points

Josh Freeman
Weeks 1-4: 13 point average
Week 6: 29 points

On average, even with Roethlisberger's down day factored in, quarterbacks coming off a bye in 2012 have seen their point output increase 24 percent over their pre-bye week numbers.

It wasn't just the group of quarterbacks coming off byes. In a lot of these cases, running backs had an uptick in output, as well (the Steelers and Lions aren't included here because of the changing nature of their running back position before and after the bye):
Donald Brown
Weeks 1-3: 6.3 point average
Week 5: 10 points

DeMarco Murray
Weeks 1-4: 9 point average
Week 6: 9 points (in what was essentially half of a game, thanks to his foot injury)

Darren McFadden
Weeks 1-4: 8.5 point average
Week 6: 13 points

Doug Martin
Weeks 1-4: 8.25 point average
Week 6: 12 points

These four running backs saw an average increase of 37 percent in their Fantasy point output.

Additionally, the stud receviers on post-bye week teams saw their numbers increase, as well (again, with the exception of the Steelers):
Reggie Wayne
Weeks 1-3: 11.3 point average
Week 5: 27 points

Mike Wallace
Weeks 1-3: 13.3 point average
Week 5: 1 point

Dez Bryant
Weeks 1-4: 6.75 point average
Week 6: 21 points

Calvin Johnson
Weeks 1-4: 11.75 point average
Week 6: 13 points

Denarius Moore
Weeks 2-4: 7.7 point average
Week 6: 16 points

Vincent Jackson
Weeks 1-4: 10 point average
Week 6: 18 points

So, even with Wallace's one-point performance dragging the numbers down, a team's No. 1/stud receiver (it's tough to determine one between Miles Austin and Dez Bryant on Dallas -- Bryant went 30 spots higher in drafts, so we're going with him), wide receivers saw a 57 percent increase in Fantasy point output coming off a bye.

Keep in mind, this is a somewhat small sample size -- six teams coming off bye weeks early in the season -- but it does have some merit. Teams coming off their bye have extra time to prepare for an opponent, have an extra game of their opponents' to watch and exploit weaknesses and have extra days to practice, get into grooves, correct early season mistakes and work on rapport. In short, there's no guarantee, but there is some pretty decent subjective and objective reasoning and statistical evidence supporting this. Again, a quick reminder of players who fit this criteria coming off their byes this week:
QB:Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert
RB:Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren Sproles/Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram, DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart
WR: Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Justin Blackmon
Does it help to know that you should see an uptick in production from Brandon Marshall? Probably not. But if an owner is looking for replacement for Peyton Manning, and Jay Cutler is sitting on the wire, there's a decent chance, according to the numbers so far, that he could have a nice game as the Bears come off their bye.

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Let's go back to Week 1. Remember those halcyon days of freaking out and trying to grab Kevin Ogletree? How about throwing your hands up and quitting Victor Cruz for good? Here are the 10 players who have put up the most points since somewhat down Week 1 performances:

1. A.J. Green (7 points in Week 1, 90 points since = 83 point difference)
2. Victor Cruz (5 points in Week 1, 77 points since = 72 point difference)
3. Trent Richardson (3 in Week 1, 72 since = 69 point difference)
4. Arian Foster (19 in Week 1, 87 since = 68 point difference)
5. Wes Welker (1 in Week 1, 68 since = 67 point difference)
6. Jamaal Charles (8 in Week 1, 73 since = 65 point difference)
7. Roddy White (8 in Week 1, 68 since = 60 point difference)
8. Michael Turner (3 in Week 1, 61 since = 58 point difference)
9. Willis McGahee (6 in Week 1, 63 since = 57 point difference)
10. Marques Colston (5 in Week 1, 60 since = 55 point difference)

And here's a little more fun with numbers. We took the average Fantasy scores for players in the first three weeks and subtracted it from their average point total over the last three. What follows are the 10 players who started strong, then fell off:

1. C.J. Spiller (20.3 avg first three; 6.3 last three)
2. Andre Brown (13.3; 0.3)
3. Martellus Bennett (12; 1)
4. Santonio Holmes (9.3; 0)
5. Kevin Ogletree (10; 1)
6. Maurice Jones-Drew (14.7; 6)
7. Kevin Smith (8.7; 0)
8. Lance Moore (11.3; 3)
9. Dennis Pitta (10; 1.7)
10. Vernon Davis (13.3; 5)

A note of interest: Maurice Jones-Drew has technically lost more value than Kevin Smith, who hasn't gotten a point since Week 2. Jones-Drew had 44 points in his first three games, then produced weeks of 7 and 5 Fantasy points, respectively, before going on his bye in Week 6.
As far as the flip side to these numbers, the players who have seen the biggest value increases from the first three weeks to the last three are: Marques Colston, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jordy Nelson, Ryan Mathews, James Jones, Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, Wes Welker, Brandon Bolden, Antonio Gates, Shonn Greene, Jason Witten, Victor Cruz, Roddy White, Dez Bryant and Chris Johnson.

DeSean Jackson and Steve Johnson may be ready to break out. As far as Fantasy points go, Jackson ranks 77th while Johnson is 82nd. Jackson has caught 29 passes for 465 yards and a touchdown while Johnson has caught 27 for 316 and three touchdowns. But they have been targeted plenty:

Jackson's targets (weekly): 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 8
Johnson's targets (weekly): 10, 5, 11, 10, 9, 11

The targets just haven't translated into receptions:

Jackson's receptions (weekly): 4, 7, 3, 6, 4, 5
Johnson's receptions (weekly): 4, 2, 7, 2, 6, 6

Jackson has averaged 8.8 targets per week with 4.8 receptions, a conversion rate of 55 percent. Johnson has averaged 9.3 targets per week with 4.5 receptions, a conversion rate of 48 percent. Of the top 100 running backs, tight ends and wide receivers in the league this year, the conversion rate has been 64 percent, meaning both Jackson and Johnson are considerably below average. And even if you just use wide receivers, the rate for the top 100 at that position is still 60 percent. In fact, among the top 100 wide receivers in Fantasy points this season, Johnson has the 13th-lowest target conversion ratio and Jackson has the 30th-lowest. Among players with 50 or more targets they rank the lowest and third-lowest, respectively (Dwayne Bowe is second, at 51.5 percent on 66 targets). With Jackson on a bye this week, his owners may be even more willing to trade, in order to fill a possible hole in the starting lineup.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasyfootball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Chiefs sideline reporter doesn't expect Jamaal Charles to play
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(10:56 pm ET) Chiefs sideline reporter Kendall Gammon told CBS Sports Radio's Eye on Fantasy Football on Saturday night that he does not expect Jamaal Charles to play at Miami on Sunday. Gammon said Charles practiced a little bit on Thursday and Friday and was moving around okay but still was showing the effects of a high-ankle sprain.

Knile Davis is likely to start and see a bunch of snaps in place of Charles at Miami.


Raiders promote Bojay Filimoeatu
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(4:44 pm ET) The Raiders have promoted linebacker Bojay Filimoeatu from the practice squad, according to the Baltimore Sun.

Filimoeatu has been up and down plenty this season. He was active for the team's first game, but was waived shortly after. It appears he'll be back for Week 3. 


Report: Lions part ways with Kevin Ogletree
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(4:36 pm ET) The Lions have released wide receiver Kevin Ogletree, according to ESPN.

Ogletree had been inactive for the club's first two games this season. He caught eight balls last season with the Buccaneers. 


49ers exchange tight end for quarterback
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(4:09 pm ET) The 49ers have promoted tight end Asante Cleveland from the practice squad.

In order to make the move, the team released quarterback Josh Johnson. Johnson had been inactive for the first two games this year. 


Melvin Ingram placed on IR - Designated to return list
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(4:05 pm ET) Chargers linebacker Melvin Ingram has been placed on the IR - Designated to return list.

Ingram had been dealing with a hamstring injury, but was officially listed on IR with a hip issue. He'll be able to return Week 11 at the earliest. The club cannot place any other players on the IR - Designated to return list while Ingram is on it. 


Matt Schaub unavailable Sunday with emergency
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(3:54 pm ET) Raiders backup quarterback Matt Schaub will be unavailable to play Sunday for a non-injury related reason, the team announced.

Schaub made the trip east for the team's Week 3 game against the Patriots but had an emergency come up, the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Should something happen to starter Derek Carr, the team will have to turn to Matt McGloin.


Ravens add Fitzgerald Toussaint, waive Deonte Thompson
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(3:29 pm ET) The Ravens signed running back Fitzgerald Toussaint from the practice squad and waived wide receiver Deonte Thompson Saturday. The move allows the team to have more depth at running back with Bernard Pierce (thigh) questionable to play in Week 3.

Dee Milliner doubtful on Jets' final Week 3 injury report
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2:43 pm ET) Jets cornerback Dee Milliner (quad/ankle) is doubtful to play in Monday night's game against the Bears.

Milliner sat out practice for a second straight day Saturday and is unlikely to suit up Monday. Wide receiver Eric Decker is questionable to play Monday, but the rest of the team's injured players participated in practice fully Saturday and are good to go, the Associated Press reports. Those players include running back Chris Johnson (ankle), safety Josh Bush (quad) and linebackers A.J. Edds (hamstring), Nick Bellore (hip) and Quinton Coples (elbow).


Panthers sign Darrin Reaves to active roster
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2:38 pm ET) The Panthers signed running back Darrin Reaves from the practice squad Saturday, the team announced. The team has three running backs on the injury report this week and is looking to improve depth heading into Sunday night's game against the Steelers.

Eric Decker questionable to play Monday vs. Bears
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2:36 pm ET) Jets wide receiver Eric Decker (hamstring) is officially questionable to play in Monday night's game against the Bears.

Decker was able to get in a limited practice session Saturday and will likely wind up being a gametime decision. He has caught nine passes for 137 yards and a touchdown over his first two games.


 
 
 
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