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Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 7

Senior Fantasy Writer
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As we wade into a seventh week of action, there are some nuggets that are too in-depth for the podcast, too smart for Twitter and a little too short for the full column. Enjoy these Week 7 Quick Fantasy Hits:

Your byes for Week 7: Atlanta, Denver, Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego.

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Speaking of bye weeks ... Take a quick look at these numbers:
Tony Romo: 25-for-36, 261 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception (20 points)
Matthew Stafford: 22-for-45, 311 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception (22 points)
Carson Palmer: 23-for-33, 353 yards, one touchdown, one interception (16 points)
Josh Freeman: 15-for-26, 328 yards, three touchdowns, one interception (29 points)

Besides "they all threw an interception," these four quarterbacks all had one thing in common: they were coming off a bye in Week 6. Of the six quarterbacks who have played following a bye week, four had marked improvements over their average in their pre-bye week numbers. And only Ben Roethlisberger saw his stats take a hit. Observe:

Ben Roethlisberger
Weeks 1-3: 27 point average
Week 5: 15 points

Andrew Luck
Weeks 1-3: 20 point average
Week 5: 32 points

Tony Romo
Weeks 1-4: 14 point average
Week 6: 20 points

Matthew Stafford
Weeks 1-4: 16.75 point average
Week 6: 22 points

Carson Palmer
Weeks 1-4: 17 point average
Week 6: 16 points

Josh Freeman
Weeks 1-4: 13 point average
Week 6: 29 points

On average, even with Roethlisberger's down day factored in, quarterbacks coming off a bye in 2012 have seen their point output increase 24 percent over their pre-bye week numbers.

It wasn't just the group of quarterbacks coming off byes. In a lot of these cases, running backs had an uptick in output, as well (the Steelers and Lions aren't included here because of the changing nature of their running back position before and after the bye):
Donald Brown
Weeks 1-3: 6.3 point average
Week 5: 10 points

DeMarco Murray
Weeks 1-4: 9 point average
Week 6: 9 points (in what was essentially half of a game, thanks to his foot injury)

Darren McFadden
Weeks 1-4: 8.5 point average
Week 6: 13 points

Doug Martin
Weeks 1-4: 8.25 point average
Week 6: 12 points

These four running backs saw an average increase of 37 percent in their Fantasy point output.

Additionally, the stud receviers on post-bye week teams saw their numbers increase, as well (again, with the exception of the Steelers):
Reggie Wayne
Weeks 1-3: 11.3 point average
Week 5: 27 points

Mike Wallace
Weeks 1-3: 13.3 point average
Week 5: 1 point

Dez Bryant
Weeks 1-4: 6.75 point average
Week 6: 21 points

Calvin Johnson
Weeks 1-4: 11.75 point average
Week 6: 13 points

Denarius Moore
Weeks 2-4: 7.7 point average
Week 6: 16 points

Vincent Jackson
Weeks 1-4: 10 point average
Week 6: 18 points

So, even with Wallace's one-point performance dragging the numbers down, a team's No. 1/stud receiver (it's tough to determine one between Miles Austin and Dez Bryant on Dallas -- Bryant went 30 spots higher in drafts, so we're going with him), wide receivers saw a 57 percent increase in Fantasy point output coming off a bye.

Keep in mind, this is a somewhat small sample size -- six teams coming off bye weeks early in the season -- but it does have some merit. Teams coming off their bye have extra time to prepare for an opponent, have an extra game of their opponents' to watch and exploit weaknesses and have extra days to practice, get into grooves, correct early season mistakes and work on rapport. In short, there's no guarantee, but there is some pretty decent subjective and objective reasoning and statistical evidence supporting this. Again, a quick reminder of players who fit this criteria coming off their byes this week:
QB:Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert
RB:Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren Sproles/Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram, DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart
WR: Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Justin Blackmon
Does it help to know that you should see an uptick in production from Brandon Marshall? Probably not. But if an owner is looking for replacement for Peyton Manning, and Jay Cutler is sitting on the wire, there's a decent chance, according to the numbers so far, that he could have a nice game as the Bears come off their bye.

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Let's go back to Week 1. Remember those halcyon days of freaking out and trying to grab Kevin Ogletree? How about throwing your hands up and quitting Victor Cruz for good? Here are the 10 players who have put up the most points since somewhat down Week 1 performances:

1. A.J. Green (7 points in Week 1, 90 points since = 83 point difference)
2. Victor Cruz (5 points in Week 1, 77 points since = 72 point difference)
3. Trent Richardson (3 in Week 1, 72 since = 69 point difference)
4. Arian Foster (19 in Week 1, 87 since = 68 point difference)
5. Wes Welker (1 in Week 1, 68 since = 67 point difference)
6. Jamaal Charles (8 in Week 1, 73 since = 65 point difference)
7. Roddy White (8 in Week 1, 68 since = 60 point difference)
8. Michael Turner (3 in Week 1, 61 since = 58 point difference)
9. Willis McGahee (6 in Week 1, 63 since = 57 point difference)
10. Marques Colston (5 in Week 1, 60 since = 55 point difference)

And here's a little more fun with numbers. We took the average Fantasy scores for players in the first three weeks and subtracted it from their average point total over the last three. What follows are the 10 players who started strong, then fell off:

1. C.J. Spiller (20.3 avg first three; 6.3 last three)
2. Andre Brown (13.3; 0.3)
3. Martellus Bennett (12; 1)
4. Santonio Holmes (9.3; 0)
5. Kevin Ogletree (10; 1)
6. Maurice Jones-Drew (14.7; 6)
7. Kevin Smith (8.7; 0)
8. Lance Moore (11.3; 3)
9. Dennis Pitta (10; 1.7)
10. Vernon Davis (13.3; 5)

A note of interest: Maurice Jones-Drew has technically lost more value than Kevin Smith, who hasn't gotten a point since Week 2. Jones-Drew had 44 points in his first three games, then produced weeks of 7 and 5 Fantasy points, respectively, before going on his bye in Week 6.
As far as the flip side to these numbers, the players who have seen the biggest value increases from the first three weeks to the last three are: Marques Colston, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jordy Nelson, Ryan Mathews, James Jones, Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, Wes Welker, Brandon Bolden, Antonio Gates, Shonn Greene, Jason Witten, Victor Cruz, Roddy White, Dez Bryant and Chris Johnson.

DeSean Jackson and Steve Johnson may be ready to break out. As far as Fantasy points go, Jackson ranks 77th while Johnson is 82nd. Jackson has caught 29 passes for 465 yards and a touchdown while Johnson has caught 27 for 316 and three touchdowns. But they have been targeted plenty:

Jackson's targets (weekly): 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 8
Johnson's targets (weekly): 10, 5, 11, 10, 9, 11

The targets just haven't translated into receptions:

Jackson's receptions (weekly): 4, 7, 3, 6, 4, 5
Johnson's receptions (weekly): 4, 2, 7, 2, 6, 6

Jackson has averaged 8.8 targets per week with 4.8 receptions, a conversion rate of 55 percent. Johnson has averaged 9.3 targets per week with 4.5 receptions, a conversion rate of 48 percent. Of the top 100 running backs, tight ends and wide receivers in the league this year, the conversion rate has been 64 percent, meaning both Jackson and Johnson are considerably below average. And even if you just use wide receivers, the rate for the top 100 at that position is still 60 percent. In fact, among the top 100 wide receivers in Fantasy points this season, Johnson has the 13th-lowest target conversion ratio and Jackson has the 30th-lowest. Among players with 50 or more targets they rank the lowest and third-lowest, respectively (Dwayne Bowe is second, at 51.5 percent on 66 targets). With Jackson on a bye this week, his owners may be even more willing to trade, in order to fill a possible hole in the starting lineup.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasyfootball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Chiefs WR Junior Hemingway being evaluated for concussion
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:57 pm ET) Chiefs wideout Junior Hemingway is being evaluated for a concussion.

It's unclear whether Hemingway will return to the contest at this time. He hauled in one pass for 4 yards before leaving the game. 


Chiefs' Donald Stephenson questionable to return
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:56 pm ET) Chiefs lineman Donald Stephenson is questionable to return against the Raiders.

Stephenson is dealing with a shoulder injury. He'll likely be evaluated at halftime, and the team will update his status at the start of the third quarter.


Raiders RB Latavius Murray exits game with possible concussion
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:38 pm ET) Raiders running back Latavius Murray is being evaluated for a concussion, the team announced.

Murray took a big hit on a kick return and headed to the locker room to be checked out. He's racked up 112 yards and two touchdowns on just four carries, including a 90-yard score early in the second quarter.


Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch misses practice Thursday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(7:10 pm ET) Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch missed a second straight day of practice Thursday with a back injury. He also missed two days of practice last week with calf and rib issues before suiting up against the Chiefs and racking up 124 yards on 24 carries.

Raiders' Derek Carr, Miles Burris active Thursday night
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(7:06 pm ET) Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (quad) and linebacker Miles Burris (hip) are active for Thursday night's game against the Chiefs. Both players were listed as probable coming in to the Week 12 matchup.

Chiefs will have Travis Kelce against Raiders
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:05 pm ET) The Chiefs will have tight end Travis Kelce against the Raiders Week 12.

Kelce entered the game listed as probable due to shoulder and rib injuries. He was never expected to miss the contest. The team will also have Zach Fulton, Phillip Gaines, Tamba Hali, Mike McGlynn and Sean Smith. All five were listed as probable coming into the game.

Anthony Fasano, who was listed as questionable, will attempt to give it a go. He's dealing with a knee injury.


Raiders list inactives for Week 12 vs. Chiefs
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(7:04 pm ET) The Raiders have listed the following players as inactive for Thursday night's matchup with the Chiefs: cornerbacks Carlos Rogers (knee) and T.J. Carrie (ankle), safety Jonathan Dowling (back), tight end David Ausberry (foot), guards Gabe Jackson (knee) and Tony Bergstrom and quarterback Matt McGloin.

Jackson was listed as questionable to play in the Week 12 divisional battle, while Rogers, Carrie, Dowling and Ausberry had previously been ruled out. The 0-10 Raiders are looking to end a 16-game losing streak Thursday.


Chiefs list inactives for Week 12
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:00 pm ET) The Chiefs have listed QB Aaron Murray, WR Donnie Avery, WR A.J. Jenkins, CB Chris Owens, CB Jamell Fleming, C Eric Kush and OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif as inactive for Week 12 against the Raiders.

Both Jenkins and Avery had been rushed out prior to the contest. Fleming was listed as questionable due to a hamstring issue. The other four players are healthy scratches. 


Seahawks MLB Bobby Wagner practices in full, set to return
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(6:58 pm ET) Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner, who's missed five straight games with a toe injury, practiced fully Thursday, the team announced. He's on track to return Sunday against the Cardinals.

Cowboys won't limit RB DeMarco Murray's carries
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(6:44 pm ET) Although Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray leads the NFL with 244 carries, the team has no plans to scale back his workload, reports the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

"I have seen no signs of overuse," coach Jason Garrett told the paper. "I don't think we want to limit his carries. He's certainly the bell-cow runner for us and we want to get him the ball as a runner and as a receiver as much as we can."

Dallas visits the Giants on Sunday night.


 
 
 
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