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Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 7

Senior Fantasy Writer
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As we wade into a seventh week of action, there are some nuggets that are too in-depth for the podcast, too smart for Twitter and a little too short for the full column. Enjoy these Week 7 Quick Fantasy Hits:

Your byes for Week 7: Atlanta, Denver, Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego.

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Speaking of bye weeks ... Take a quick look at these numbers:
Tony Romo: 25-for-36, 261 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception (20 points)
Matthew Stafford: 22-for-45, 311 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception (22 points)
Carson Palmer: 23-for-33, 353 yards, one touchdown, one interception (16 points)
Josh Freeman: 15-for-26, 328 yards, three touchdowns, one interception (29 points)

Besides "they all threw an interception," these four quarterbacks all had one thing in common: they were coming off a bye in Week 6. Of the six quarterbacks who have played following a bye week, four had marked improvements over their average in their pre-bye week numbers. And only Ben Roethlisberger saw his stats take a hit. Observe:

Ben Roethlisberger
Weeks 1-3: 27 point average
Week 5: 15 points

Andrew Luck
Weeks 1-3: 20 point average
Week 5: 32 points

Tony Romo
Weeks 1-4: 14 point average
Week 6: 20 points

Matthew Stafford
Weeks 1-4: 16.75 point average
Week 6: 22 points

Carson Palmer
Weeks 1-4: 17 point average
Week 6: 16 points

Josh Freeman
Weeks 1-4: 13 point average
Week 6: 29 points

On average, even with Roethlisberger's down day factored in, quarterbacks coming off a bye in 2012 have seen their point output increase 24 percent over their pre-bye week numbers.

It wasn't just the group of quarterbacks coming off byes. In a lot of these cases, running backs had an uptick in output, as well (the Steelers and Lions aren't included here because of the changing nature of their running back position before and after the bye):
Donald Brown
Weeks 1-3: 6.3 point average
Week 5: 10 points

DeMarco Murray
Weeks 1-4: 9 point average
Week 6: 9 points (in what was essentially half of a game, thanks to his foot injury)

Darren McFadden
Weeks 1-4: 8.5 point average
Week 6: 13 points

Doug Martin
Weeks 1-4: 8.25 point average
Week 6: 12 points

These four running backs saw an average increase of 37 percent in their Fantasy point output.

Additionally, the stud receviers on post-bye week teams saw their numbers increase, as well (again, with the exception of the Steelers):
Reggie Wayne
Weeks 1-3: 11.3 point average
Week 5: 27 points

Mike Wallace
Weeks 1-3: 13.3 point average
Week 5: 1 point

Dez Bryant
Weeks 1-4: 6.75 point average
Week 6: 21 points

Calvin Johnson
Weeks 1-4: 11.75 point average
Week 6: 13 points

Denarius Moore
Weeks 2-4: 7.7 point average
Week 6: 16 points

Vincent Jackson
Weeks 1-4: 10 point average
Week 6: 18 points

So, even with Wallace's one-point performance dragging the numbers down, a team's No. 1/stud receiver (it's tough to determine one between Miles Austin and Dez Bryant on Dallas -- Bryant went 30 spots higher in drafts, so we're going with him), wide receivers saw a 57 percent increase in Fantasy point output coming off a bye.

Keep in mind, this is a somewhat small sample size -- six teams coming off bye weeks early in the season -- but it does have some merit. Teams coming off their bye have extra time to prepare for an opponent, have an extra game of their opponents' to watch and exploit weaknesses and have extra days to practice, get into grooves, correct early season mistakes and work on rapport. In short, there's no guarantee, but there is some pretty decent subjective and objective reasoning and statistical evidence supporting this. Again, a quick reminder of players who fit this criteria coming off their byes this week:
QB:Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert
RB:Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren Sproles/Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram, DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart
WR: Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Justin Blackmon
Does it help to know that you should see an uptick in production from Brandon Marshall? Probably not. But if an owner is looking for replacement for Peyton Manning, and Jay Cutler is sitting on the wire, there's a decent chance, according to the numbers so far, that he could have a nice game as the Bears come off their bye.

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Let's go back to Week 1. Remember those halcyon days of freaking out and trying to grab Kevin Ogletree? How about throwing your hands up and quitting Victor Cruz for good? Here are the 10 players who have put up the most points since somewhat down Week 1 performances:

1. A.J. Green (7 points in Week 1, 90 points since = 83 point difference)
2. Victor Cruz (5 points in Week 1, 77 points since = 72 point difference)
3. Trent Richardson (3 in Week 1, 72 since = 69 point difference)
4. Arian Foster (19 in Week 1, 87 since = 68 point difference)
5. Wes Welker (1 in Week 1, 68 since = 67 point difference)
6. Jamaal Charles (8 in Week 1, 73 since = 65 point difference)
7. Roddy White (8 in Week 1, 68 since = 60 point difference)
8. Michael Turner (3 in Week 1, 61 since = 58 point difference)
9. Willis McGahee (6 in Week 1, 63 since = 57 point difference)
10. Marques Colston (5 in Week 1, 60 since = 55 point difference)

And here's a little more fun with numbers. We took the average Fantasy scores for players in the first three weeks and subtracted it from their average point total over the last three. What follows are the 10 players who started strong, then fell off:

1. C.J. Spiller (20.3 avg first three; 6.3 last three)
2. Andre Brown (13.3; 0.3)
3. Martellus Bennett (12; 1)
4. Santonio Holmes (9.3; 0)
5. Kevin Ogletree (10; 1)
6. Maurice Jones-Drew (14.7; 6)
7. Kevin Smith (8.7; 0)
8. Lance Moore (11.3; 3)
9. Dennis Pitta (10; 1.7)
10. Vernon Davis (13.3; 5)

A note of interest: Maurice Jones-Drew has technically lost more value than Kevin Smith, who hasn't gotten a point since Week 2. Jones-Drew had 44 points in his first three games, then produced weeks of 7 and 5 Fantasy points, respectively, before going on his bye in Week 6.
As far as the flip side to these numbers, the players who have seen the biggest value increases from the first three weeks to the last three are: Marques Colston, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jordy Nelson, Ryan Mathews, James Jones, Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, Wes Welker, Brandon Bolden, Antonio Gates, Shonn Greene, Jason Witten, Victor Cruz, Roddy White, Dez Bryant and Chris Johnson.

DeSean Jackson and Steve Johnson may be ready to break out. As far as Fantasy points go, Jackson ranks 77th while Johnson is 82nd. Jackson has caught 29 passes for 465 yards and a touchdown while Johnson has caught 27 for 316 and three touchdowns. But they have been targeted plenty:

Jackson's targets (weekly): 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 8
Johnson's targets (weekly): 10, 5, 11, 10, 9, 11

The targets just haven't translated into receptions:

Jackson's receptions (weekly): 4, 7, 3, 6, 4, 5
Johnson's receptions (weekly): 4, 2, 7, 2, 6, 6

Jackson has averaged 8.8 targets per week with 4.8 receptions, a conversion rate of 55 percent. Johnson has averaged 9.3 targets per week with 4.5 receptions, a conversion rate of 48 percent. Of the top 100 running backs, tight ends and wide receivers in the league this year, the conversion rate has been 64 percent, meaning both Jackson and Johnson are considerably below average. And even if you just use wide receivers, the rate for the top 100 at that position is still 60 percent. In fact, among the top 100 wide receivers in Fantasy points this season, Johnson has the 13th-lowest target conversion ratio and Jackson has the 30th-lowest. Among players with 50 or more targets they rank the lowest and third-lowest, respectively (Dwayne Bowe is second, at 51.5 percent on 66 targets). With Jackson on a bye this week, his owners may be even more willing to trade, in order to fill a possible hole in the starting lineup.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasyfootball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Redskins place LB Ja'Gared Davis on non-football injury list
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(1:48 am ET) Reserve linebacker Ja'Gared Davis , who spent time last season on the Redskins' practice squad, was placed on the non-football injury list by the team Thursday after apparently injuring himself during practice, per The Washington Post

Davis last played in the NFL in 2014 with the Patriots. 


Cowboys DE Greg Hardy suffers strain in side
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(1:33 am ET) Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy suffered a strain in his left side during Thursday's practice, which the team said is not considered serious, per the Dallas Morning News. 

Hardy told fans "I'm invicible," as he signed autographs after practice. The Cowboys training staff was checking out Hardy after practice as a precautionary measure. 

"To be honest with you, with Greg right from the start, he was actually going too hard," Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said. "He was going too hard in the weight room and too hard on the field early on in the offseason."


Cowboys WR Dez Bryant says new deal won't change him
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(1:28 am ET) Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant reported to camp Thursday and said that just because he's inked a big-money contract, he won't change the way he plays, per the Dallas Morning-News. 

Bryant participated in every drill and the afternoon practice, even though the team suggested he might be limited at the start of camp after signing his $70 million deal so late in the offseason. 

"That deal don't make me," Bryant said. "It don't make me. I play this game because I love this game. I don't give a damn about none of that. It's not going to change the way I play. It's not going to change the way I act."


S Kam Chancellor lone Seahawks no-show
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(1:19 am ET) Kam Chancellor did not report to the Seahawks' facility on Thursday, and appears to be prepared to hold out when the team's training camp opens Friday, per the SeattlePI.com. 

If Chancellor does hold out, he would incur up to $30,000 per day in fines. He is upset about the four-year, $28 million deal he signed in 2013. 

Chancellor recorded 78 tackles, an interception and a forced fumble in 14 games for the Seahawks last season.


Cowboys QB Tony Romo intends to practice more
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(7/30/2015) Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo said he plans to ramp up his level of activity during training camp, planning to practice for three days in a row at times, per the Dallas Morning-News

Romo, who has battled back issues for the last several seasons, did not practice in more than consecutive days last training camp. 

"I think we'll practice more this year than we did last year, but at the same time it's not out of the realm to go two-and-one sometimes (two days on, one off) and I think the plan is we'll have some where we go three in a row," Romo said. "We'll see how it goes."


Report: WR James Jones to sign with Giants
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(7/30/2015) Veteran wide receiver James Jones , who was released earlier in the year by the Raiders, will sign a one-year deal with the Giants , per NFL.com. 

Jones fielded offers from the Eagles, Chiefs, Seahawks and Bengals, but decided to sign with the Giants due to his relationship with New York offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, per the report. 

Jones had 73 receptions for 666 yards and six touchdowns last season. 


Jets DL Sheldon Richardson charged with resisting arrest
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(7/30/2015) Less than two weeks after being suspended for four games for violating the league's substance abuse policy, Jets defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson was charged with resisting arrest and child endangerment in Missouri on Wednesday, per NFL.com.

Richardson was clocked driving as high as 143 miles per hour in mid-July with a 12-year-old in the back seat. According to the police report, Richardson turned off his headlights in an attempt to evade the police and lost control of his car at times. Police found a fully-loaded semi-automatic weapon under the seat once the stop was made. 

"We are aware of the situation and are gathering information," the Jets said in a statement. "This is a pending legal matter and we will have no further comment at this time."


Jets DE Muhammad Wilkerson in camp, 'frustrated' with deal
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(7/30/2015) Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson did indeed report to the start of training camp Wednesday, but remains "frustrated" with his contract status, per ESPN.com. 

"It is a little frustrating, but at the end of the day I am happy to be out here with my teammates and get the season going," Wilkerson said. 

The veteran is seeking a big-money, long-term contract, and hopes to work out a new deal with the Jets before the start of the season. If not, he will make $6.97 million and become a free agent - at which point, the Jets could apply the franchise tag. 

Wilkerson has racked up 16 sacks over the past two seasons. 


Bengals place Rey Maualuga on injury list
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(7/30/2015) The Bengals placed linebacker Rey Maualuga on the non-football injury list, the team announced on Thursday. 

The team didn't release details on the nature of Maualuga's injury. He can be activated from the list whenever he's medically cleared to play. 


Report: Bengals reacquire WR Greg Little
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/30/2015) Wide receiver Greg Little has signed a one-year deal with the Bengals, a source has told Pro Football Talk.

Little, who was cut by Cincinnati in late February, caught just six passes for 69 yards last season after a disappointing three-year stint with Cleveland.


 
 
 
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