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Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 7

Senior Fantasy Writer
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As we wade into a seventh week of action, there are some nuggets that are too in-depth for the podcast, too smart for Twitter and a little too short for the full column. Enjoy these Week 7 Quick Fantasy Hits:

Your byes for Week 7: Atlanta, Denver, Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego.

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Speaking of bye weeks ... Take a quick look at these numbers:
Tony Romo: 25-for-36, 261 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception (20 points)
Matthew Stafford: 22-for-45, 311 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception (22 points)
Carson Palmer: 23-for-33, 353 yards, one touchdown, one interception (16 points)
Josh Freeman: 15-for-26, 328 yards, three touchdowns, one interception (29 points)

Besides "they all threw an interception," these four quarterbacks all had one thing in common: they were coming off a bye in Week 6. Of the six quarterbacks who have played following a bye week, four had marked improvements over their average in their pre-bye week numbers. And only Ben Roethlisberger saw his stats take a hit. Observe:

Ben Roethlisberger
Weeks 1-3: 27 point average
Week 5: 15 points

Andrew Luck
Weeks 1-3: 20 point average
Week 5: 32 points

Tony Romo
Weeks 1-4: 14 point average
Week 6: 20 points

Matthew Stafford
Weeks 1-4: 16.75 point average
Week 6: 22 points

Carson Palmer
Weeks 1-4: 17 point average
Week 6: 16 points

Josh Freeman
Weeks 1-4: 13 point average
Week 6: 29 points

On average, even with Roethlisberger's down day factored in, quarterbacks coming off a bye in 2012 have seen their point output increase 24 percent over their pre-bye week numbers.

It wasn't just the group of quarterbacks coming off byes. In a lot of these cases, running backs had an uptick in output, as well (the Steelers and Lions aren't included here because of the changing nature of their running back position before and after the bye):
Donald Brown
Weeks 1-3: 6.3 point average
Week 5: 10 points

DeMarco Murray
Weeks 1-4: 9 point average
Week 6: 9 points (in what was essentially half of a game, thanks to his foot injury)

Darren McFadden
Weeks 1-4: 8.5 point average
Week 6: 13 points

Doug Martin
Weeks 1-4: 8.25 point average
Week 6: 12 points

These four running backs saw an average increase of 37 percent in their Fantasy point output.

Additionally, the stud receviers on post-bye week teams saw their numbers increase, as well (again, with the exception of the Steelers):
Reggie Wayne
Weeks 1-3: 11.3 point average
Week 5: 27 points

Mike Wallace
Weeks 1-3: 13.3 point average
Week 5: 1 point

Dez Bryant
Weeks 1-4: 6.75 point average
Week 6: 21 points

Calvin Johnson
Weeks 1-4: 11.75 point average
Week 6: 13 points

Denarius Moore
Weeks 2-4: 7.7 point average
Week 6: 16 points

Vincent Jackson
Weeks 1-4: 10 point average
Week 6: 18 points

So, even with Wallace's one-point performance dragging the numbers down, a team's No. 1/stud receiver (it's tough to determine one between Miles Austin and Dez Bryant on Dallas -- Bryant went 30 spots higher in drafts, so we're going with him), wide receivers saw a 57 percent increase in Fantasy point output coming off a bye.

Keep in mind, this is a somewhat small sample size -- six teams coming off bye weeks early in the season -- but it does have some merit. Teams coming off their bye have extra time to prepare for an opponent, have an extra game of their opponents' to watch and exploit weaknesses and have extra days to practice, get into grooves, correct early season mistakes and work on rapport. In short, there's no guarantee, but there is some pretty decent subjective and objective reasoning and statistical evidence supporting this. Again, a quick reminder of players who fit this criteria coming off their byes this week:
QB:Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert
RB:Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren Sproles/Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram, DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart
WR: Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Justin Blackmon
Does it help to know that you should see an uptick in production from Brandon Marshall? Probably not. But if an owner is looking for replacement for Peyton Manning, and Jay Cutler is sitting on the wire, there's a decent chance, according to the numbers so far, that he could have a nice game as the Bears come off their bye.

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Let's go back to Week 1. Remember those halcyon days of freaking out and trying to grab Kevin Ogletree? How about throwing your hands up and quitting Victor Cruz for good? Here are the 10 players who have put up the most points since somewhat down Week 1 performances:

1. A.J. Green (7 points in Week 1, 90 points since = 83 point difference)
2. Victor Cruz (5 points in Week 1, 77 points since = 72 point difference)
3. Trent Richardson (3 in Week 1, 72 since = 69 point difference)
4. Arian Foster (19 in Week 1, 87 since = 68 point difference)
5. Wes Welker (1 in Week 1, 68 since = 67 point difference)
6. Jamaal Charles (8 in Week 1, 73 since = 65 point difference)
7. Roddy White (8 in Week 1, 68 since = 60 point difference)
8. Michael Turner (3 in Week 1, 61 since = 58 point difference)
9. Willis McGahee (6 in Week 1, 63 since = 57 point difference)
10. Marques Colston (5 in Week 1, 60 since = 55 point difference)

And here's a little more fun with numbers. We took the average Fantasy scores for players in the first three weeks and subtracted it from their average point total over the last three. What follows are the 10 players who started strong, then fell off:

1. C.J. Spiller (20.3 avg first three; 6.3 last three)
2. Andre Brown (13.3; 0.3)
3. Martellus Bennett (12; 1)
4. Santonio Holmes (9.3; 0)
5. Kevin Ogletree (10; 1)
6. Maurice Jones-Drew (14.7; 6)
7. Kevin Smith (8.7; 0)
8. Lance Moore (11.3; 3)
9. Dennis Pitta (10; 1.7)
10. Vernon Davis (13.3; 5)

A note of interest: Maurice Jones-Drew has technically lost more value than Kevin Smith, who hasn't gotten a point since Week 2. Jones-Drew had 44 points in his first three games, then produced weeks of 7 and 5 Fantasy points, respectively, before going on his bye in Week 6.
As far as the flip side to these numbers, the players who have seen the biggest value increases from the first three weeks to the last three are: Marques Colston, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jordy Nelson, Ryan Mathews, James Jones, Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, Wes Welker, Brandon Bolden, Antonio Gates, Shonn Greene, Jason Witten, Victor Cruz, Roddy White, Dez Bryant and Chris Johnson.

DeSean Jackson and Steve Johnson may be ready to break out. As far as Fantasy points go, Jackson ranks 77th while Johnson is 82nd. Jackson has caught 29 passes for 465 yards and a touchdown while Johnson has caught 27 for 316 and three touchdowns. But they have been targeted plenty:

Jackson's targets (weekly): 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 8
Johnson's targets (weekly): 10, 5, 11, 10, 9, 11

The targets just haven't translated into receptions:

Jackson's receptions (weekly): 4, 7, 3, 6, 4, 5
Johnson's receptions (weekly): 4, 2, 7, 2, 6, 6

Jackson has averaged 8.8 targets per week with 4.8 receptions, a conversion rate of 55 percent. Johnson has averaged 9.3 targets per week with 4.5 receptions, a conversion rate of 48 percent. Of the top 100 running backs, tight ends and wide receivers in the league this year, the conversion rate has been 64 percent, meaning both Jackson and Johnson are considerably below average. And even if you just use wide receivers, the rate for the top 100 at that position is still 60 percent. In fact, among the top 100 wide receivers in Fantasy points this season, Johnson has the 13th-lowest target conversion ratio and Jackson has the 30th-lowest. Among players with 50 or more targets they rank the lowest and third-lowest, respectively (Dwayne Bowe is second, at 51.5 percent on 66 targets). With Jackson on a bye this week, his owners may be even more willing to trade, in order to fill a possible hole in the starting lineup.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasyfootball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Report: Ndamukong Suh to visit Raiders next week
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(2:19 pm ET) Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is set to visit the Raiders next week, a source told NFL.com

Suh is on the verge of becoming a free agent March 10 if he cannot work out a deal with the Lions. Teams can start negotiating with agents beginning Saturday. Suh is expected to be one of the most sought-after free agents in the NFL.


Report: Tyvon Branch scheduled to meet with Redskins
(1:55 pm ET) Free agent safety Tyvon Branch is scheduled to visit the Redskins, reports FOX Sports NFL Insider Mike Garafolo.  

The 28-year-old Branch has played seven seasons in the NFL -- all with the Raiders. However, due to injuries, he has only played in five games the last two seasons.

Branch has totaled 476 tackles, 20 passes defensed and four interceptions in his career.


Report: DA will not pursue charges against Ray McDonald
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:55 pm ET) Defensive end Ray McDonald's agent has begun informing teams that the Santa Clara District Attorney has decided not to pursue charges against his client, reports NFL.com.

McDonald was facing a sexual assault allegation. The 49ers released him last year when the allegation arose. He is currently a free agent.


Report: Seahawks could make a run at CB Tramon Williams
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(1:50 pm ET) Seahawks general manager, a former Packers executive, will reportedly seek cornerback Tramon Williams to replace unrestricted free agent Byron Maxwell in Seattle, if Williams is not signed by Green Bay before March 10 -- the start of free agency, according to Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on Wednesday.

Williams rejected a two-year contract worth $8 million from the Packers earlier this offseason, according to a source. He is seeking a three-to-four-year contract with more guaranteed money. Last season, he totaled 71 tackles and added three interceptions, tied for a team high.

>> Want more NFL offseason? >> Mock drafts | Free agency tracker


Report: Packers not ruling out bringing A.J. Hawk back
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:35 pm ET) Although the Packers recently released linebacker A.J. Hawk, the team is not opposed to bringing him back, a source told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

The Packers released Hawk on Feb. 25, but the team has left open the possibility of his return. Hawk, 31, recently underwent ankle surgery, but intends to play in 2015.


Reports: Buccaneers to re-sign cornerback Mike Jenkins
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:30 pm ET) The Buccaneers will be bringing back Mike Jenkins in 2015, a source told SportsTalkFlorida.com.

The contract is a one-year deal. Jenkins missed all, but one game in 2014 after suffering a pectoral injury.


Report: Cornerback Cary Williams to visit Seahawks
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:21 pm ET) Free-agent cornerback Cary Williams is set to visit the Seahawks on Thursday, a source told The Baltimore Sun.

Williams was recently released by the Eagles after starting 32 games over the last two seasons for the team. In 2014, he totaled 60 tackles and two interceptions.


Lions LB Stephen Tulloch: I will be back in Detroit in 2015
(1:18 pm ET) Linebacker Stephen Tulloch took to Instagram on Thursday to announce his intentions of returning to the Lions' roster in 2015, which will mark his 10th season in the NFL.

"Lets put all the questions and speculations to rest. I will be back in Detroit for my 10th season this year," Tulloch wrote. "I appreciate the Lions organization for believing in me and having the confidence that I'll be back to the player that I've always been. Trust and know I grind hard everyday and will hit the field running when its time to suit up."

Tulloch spent five years with the Titans prior to joining the Lions in 2011. He played in only three games last year after tearing his ACL while celebrating a sack of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.


Dolphins re-sign offensive tackle Jason Fox
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:03 pm ET) The Dolphins re-signed offensive tackle Jason Fox, the team announced Thursday. 

The deal is worth a reported two-years, $2.5 million, reports the Miami Herald. Fox appeared in nine games for the Dolphins in 2014 and started two of them.


Chargers CB Brandon Flowers: I would love to stay in San Diego
(1:00 pm ET) Chargers cornerback Brandon Flowers said Thursday during an interview with NFL Network that he would like to re-sign with San Diego, per ESPN.

“We’re in negotiations right now, and hopefully we can get something done,” Flowers said. “But free agency is right around the corner. We’ll see how that all plays out. Business is business, but I would love to stay in San Diego.

"To me it’s very enjoyable because if I stay in San Diego, it’s a place I loved stepping in from Day 1. It’s a nice place to live, and with a quarterback like Philip Rivers, you always have a chance. And if I’m not able to go back, I’m going to the free agency market.”

Chargers general manager Tom Telesco said the two sides are talking.

“We’ve been in communication with his agent and with Brandon,” Telesco told XTRA 1360 Fox Sports radio last week. “And we’ll see where it goes with them.”

The 29-year-old Flowers had 52 tackles and led the team with three interceptions in 2014 -- his only season with San Diego after playing the previous six seasons with the Chiefs.


 
 
 
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