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Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 9

Senior Fantasy Writer
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As we wade into a ninth week of action, there are some nuggets that are too in-depth for the podcast, too smart for Twitter and a little too short for the full column. Enjoy these Week Fantasy Quick Hits for Week 9:

Your byes for Week 9: St. Louis, New England, N.Y. Jets, San Francisco.

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John Skelton is actually a good thing for Larry Fitzgerald. While the general consensus for Fantasy owners when John Skelton starts for the Cardinals is, essentially, a loud groan of resignation, there is actually statistical proof that when Skelton is the team's quarterback -- and not Kevin Kolb -- Larry Fitzgerald has better games.

Fitzgerald has played 14 games with Kolb as his quarterback and 17 games with Skelton. Because two of those games occurred with both Skelton and Kolb under center (Weeks 1 and 6 this season), we eliminated them. So there are 12 games of just Kolb and Fitzgerald and 15 games of just Skelton and Fitzgerald. The results:

Fitzgerald with Kolb: 12 games, 64 receptions, 932 yards, 77.7 yards per game, four touchdowns, 109 total Fantasy points, 9.1 Fantasy points per game.
Fitzgerald with Skelton: 15 games, 82 receptions, 1,243 yards, 82.7 yards per game, seven touchdowns, 153 total Fantasy points, 10.2 Fantasy points per game.
If you want to eliminate all outside factors and just take the stats from the last two years, when both Kolb and Skelton were playing for Arizona (Skelton started five games in 2010 when Kolb was still with Philadelphia), the numbers tilt even more in Skelton's favor, raising Fitzgerald's Fantasy points per game average to 10.8.

Interestingly enough, when Fitzgerald plays with both quarterbacks, he averages 10.5 Fantasy points per game.

While one Fantasy point per game isn't a huge difference, it's enough for Fantasy owners to not drop Fitzgerald's value down because of some misconception that Skelton is the lesser of the two quarterbacks. In fact, Fitzgerald has two games of 20-plus Fantasy points the last two years -- they're both with Skelton as his quarterback.

The Titans pass-catchers are maddening. Through eight games, the Tennessee Titans are 13th in the NFL in passing attempts and 16th in passing yards. But the yards are being spread around to four main pass-catchers, making none of them as valuable as they should be. In fact, the team's second-leading receiver, tight end Jared Cook, has reportedly asked for a trade because they aren't using him enough in the offense. The Titans' receiving yard leaders through eight games:

Nate Washington, 443 yards
Jared Cook, 373 yards
Kendall Wright, 351 yards
Kenny Britt, 209 yards

So far this season, Washington has had one week of 100-plus yards (112 in Week 3), Cook's high is 77 yards (also Week 3), Wright has had a high of 71 yards (Week 6) and Britt's topped out at 62 (Week 6). There is no discernible difference in the receivers' performance with Matt Hasselbeck as quarterback or Jake Locker.

Of the top three point-scoring performances this season, Washington (17 Fantasy points), Cook (13) and Britt (12) each have a spot. But Wright has four of the top 10. And the point leaders on a weekly basis for the group looks like this:

Week 1: Nate Washington, 11 points
Week 2: Kendall Wright, 8 points
Week 3: Nate Washington, 17 points
Week 4: Kendall Wright, 10 points
Week 5: Jared Cook, 9 points
Week 6: Kenny Britt, 12 points
Week 7: Nate Washington, 10 points
Week 8: Kendall Wright, 10 points

But, while Wright has the top score three times, he also had the lowest Fantasy point total of the group three times. Everyone, in fact, has had their turn as the lowest of that group. And the highest. They've averaged 5.9 points per week, with the median score being five points. No receiver has managed a 20 Fantasy point performance through eight games and they've scored fewer than five points more often than they've scored more than five. Of 30 possible weekly scores from the four players (Britt was suspended for Week 1 and missed Week 4 with an injury), they've combined to put up a shoulder-shrugging week of between 30 and 60 yards 17 times. Only once has anyone in the foursome hit triple-digits in receiving yards. It's a maddening dance with mediocrity.

So what does it all mean? Not that the Titans pass-catchers are all garbage -- any given week, one of them will step up and lead the team in Fantasy scoring. The problem is that there's no way to tell who is going to have the good game. If you got excited about Kendall Wright's Week 4 10-point performance and started him, you were then treated to weeks of five, six, and one point. And then he popped up with another 10 last week. The Titans receivers are erratic and their highs aren't worth the lows. Washington is owned in 79 percent of leagues but started in 24. Britt is 87/23. Wright is 60/14. Cook is 74/37. These look more like numbers for players who are coming off bye weeks than would-be starters for Fantasy teams. Halfway through the season, a top receiving threat has yet to emerge. And it may be time to start trimming the fat on these stalled breakouts in favor of players who can help your depth at other positions.

I will say this. Of all these options, I'd rather have Kenny Britt. He's been slowed by injury, has a nice rapport with Hasselbeck and is probably the most talented of these four players. Even though he has the ugliest stat line so far, he's the most likely to rise to the top in the second half of the season.

Kickers are hard to predict. But it doesn't mean some still aren't better than others. Last week, we looked at defenses and rated them using two factors: their average weekly scoring and their consistency on a weekly basis. Through the magic of mathematics, we came up with a single number and a list of 10 DSTs that offered both factors. In other words, a team like the Vikings had a high weekly average, but also served up a few weeks of single-digit scoring. They did not make the top 10 list. This week, we're going to apply the same method to kickers. Your top 10 Fantasy kickers:

1. Lawrence Tynes, NYG, 12.4 Fantasy points per game
2. Matt Bryant, ATL 11.3 FPPG
3. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 11 FPPG
4. Jason Hanson, DET, 10.6 FPPG
5. Kai Forbath, WAS, 10.3 FPPG
6. Justin Tucker, BAL, 10.3 PFFG
7. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, 10.1 FPPG
8. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 10.1 FPPG
9. Blair Walsh, MIN, 9.9 FPPG
10. Shayne Graham, HOU, 9.9 FPPG

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Taking the average fluctuation between scores on a weekly basis, we find that the most consistent kicker in Fantasy football -- as far as his point totals not straying too far from his previous week's scoring output -- is... Mike Nugent. Your top 10:

1. Mike Nugent, CIN, 1.7 Fantasy point fluctuation per week
2. Rian Lindell, BUF, 2.17
3. Dan Carpenter, MIA, 2.5
4. Kai Forbath, WAS, 2.6
5. Shayne Graham, HOU, 2.7
6. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 2.8
7. Garrett Hartley, NO, 3
8. Justin Tucker, BAL, 3.2
9. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 3.3
10. David Akers, SF, 3.3

So now we take the Fantasy points per week, multiply it by two, just to give it a little more weight, and divide it by the fluctuation. This should give us an idea of who is scoring a good amount of points, and doing so on a consistent basis. In other words, these are kickers you can pick up, slide into your K slot, and not have to worry about (unless some kind of injury strikes). There's also no name for this stat, so I'm electing to measure it in units of "aizers" in honor of our cheery podcast host, Adam Aizer, who will likely stumble upon this article while googling his own name:

1. Mike Nugent, CIN, 13.7 aizers
2. Kai Forbath, WAS, 8 aizers
* 3. Shayne Graham, HOU, 7.4 aizers
4. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 7.2 aizers
5. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 6.7 aizers
* 6. Justin Tucker, BAL, 6.5 aizers
7. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, 6.1 aizers
8. Dan Carpenter, MIA, 5.7 aizers
9. David Akers, SF, 5.4 aizers
* 10. Robbie Gould, CHI, 5.2 aizers

[* - has not gone through bye week yet]

You may have noticed that some of the top scorers this season didn't make the final list. It's mainly because Tynes (fourth-highest on the fluctuation list), Bryant (eighth) and Hanson (sixth) had big swings in terms of point totals each week. While Nugent averages just eight points per week, you can depend on him to float between about seven and nine points. Tynes has scored as many as 20 and as few as five. This isn't a list for home run hitters -- it's a list of kickers you can plug into your lineup and not have to worry about. While it's tough to make a case for Nugent as a high-scoring option in the kicker slot -- he's in the middle of the pack as far as scoring -- he is consistent to the point where I tried to use a number of different factors to manipulate him out of the top spot, and he wouldn't budge. So there you have it. Mike Nugent. Possible savior of your Fantasy kicking conundrum.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasyfootball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Julio Jones cleared for practice but will be limited
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(8:50 am ET) Falcons receiver Julio Jones has been cleared for training camp practice, the next step in his recovery from a broken foot, but coach Mike Smith said he'll be limited in his snaps. 

"Our number one goal is to make sure that we've got everybody as healthy as we possibly can be, but we know that we have to get these guys some work together and reps. Julio will be out there participating in practice right from the start," Smith added per the Atlanta Journal Constitution


Marcell Dareus says he's returning to camp
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(8:44 am ET) Bills defensive tackle Marcell Dareus issued a statement Wednesday morning announcing his return to training camp after "dealing with a personal matter in Alabama." Dareus thanks the Bills for their support and pledged to focus on earning the trust of his coaches and teammates. 

"I have a passion for this game and I want to be here to help this organization achieve its goals," Dareus said. "There are things I need to work on professionally and personally to make sure I can be accountable to myself, my family, this team and this community.  My focus will remain on achieving that goal one day at a time."


Speculation begins on a Jamaal Charles holdout
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(7/22/2014) CBS affiliate KCTV in Kansas City reported Tuesday evening that Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles is planning to hold out of training camp. When asked about the subject, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said Charles might indeed not show up for the start of camp. The Chiefs expect him to show up according to the Kansas City Star

Camp opens on Wednesday for the Chiefs with the first practice on Thursday. Charles is allegedly seeking a new deal as he's paid $9 million per year less than Adrian Peterson and doesn't make as much as Reggie Bush and Ray Rice. Charles scored 19 touchdowns for the Chiefs last season.


Ace Sanders leaves Jaguars camp
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(7/22/2014) Jaguars receiver Ace Sanders announced Tuesday that he was taking a leave of absence from training camp and beyond because of "personal issues." Sanders wouldn't specify except to say he's going to get some counseling and that he expects to receive a four-game suspension from the NFL for violating their substance abuse policy. He's not expected to participate in training camp or the preseason. 

"I've decided to go seek help, get [the] attention that I need -- hopefully somebody can help me out," Sanders said per the Florida Times-Union. "I should be OK; I just want to get better and come back and be ready to play. Sometimes life hits and it's hard."


Larry English's release suggests Dwight Freeney will be ready
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/22/2014) The Chargers' release of outside linebacker Larry English means the team is confident Dwight Freeney will come back strong from the torn quad that ended his 2013 season in Week 4, reports ESPN.com. Freeney, 34, was limited during offseason workouts but has vowed to be ready for the Sept. 8 season opener at Arizona, the report said.

Two Rams land on injury list
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/22/2014) The Rams put safety Christian Bryant (ankle) and defensive tackle Ethan Westbrooks on the non-football injury list. They can be removed at any time and start practicing.

X-rays negative on Jameel McClain
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/22/2014) X-rays on Giants linebacker Jameel McClain's foot came back negative, reports ESPN. If McClain is still feeling soreness Wednesday, the team might follow up with an MRI.

McClain is a candidate to start at middle linebacker while Jon Beason recovers from his own foot injury. McClain suffered his injury in the team's first practice Tuesday.


Eric Fisher getting an early start
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/22/2014) Chiefs left tackle Eric Fisher, last year's No. 1 overall pick, practiced with rookies and fringe players at Tuesday's minicamp ahead of the full-squad training camp that opens Thursday, reports ESPN.com. Fisher is coming back from shoulder and sports hernia surgeries.

"I had the surgeries, so I needed to get out here, get situated before the vets get here," Fisher said. "I’m glad to be here early so I can get a jump on things."

Fisher played right tackle last year, so the extra time should help him adjust to protecting Alex Smith's blind side. He said he hasn't lost strength despite not being able to bench press following the shoulder operation.

"I’ve been in there working," he said. "When you can’t bench, there’s other things you can do. That’s what I was doing."


Jaguars put four on injury lists
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/22/2014) The Jaguars put receiver Ace Sanders and cornerback Aaron Colvin on the non-football injury list and cornerback Alan Ball and linebacker Dekoda Watson on the PUP list.

Marcus Lattimore, Ian Williams head list of unavailable 49ers
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/22/2014) The 49ers placed six players on the non-football injury list, including second-year running back Marcus Lattimore (knee). Also on the list are receiver Bruce Ellington, center Marcus Martin, fullback Trey Millard, cornerback Keith Reaser and guard Brandon Thomas.

In addition, the team placed nose tackle Ian Williams (ankle) on the PUP list along with linebacker Aaron Lynch (hamstring) and defensive lineman Kaleb Ramsey

All the players can come off the list and start practicing at any time.


 
 
 
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