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Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 9

Senior Fantasy Writer
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As we wade into a ninth week of action, there are some nuggets that are too in-depth for the podcast, too smart for Twitter and a little too short for the full column. Enjoy these Week Fantasy Quick Hits for Week 9:

Your byes for Week 9: St. Louis, New England, N.Y. Jets, San Francisco.

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John Skelton is actually a good thing for Larry Fitzgerald. While the general consensus for Fantasy owners when John Skelton starts for the Cardinals is, essentially, a loud groan of resignation, there is actually statistical proof that when Skelton is the team's quarterback -- and not Kevin Kolb -- Larry Fitzgerald has better games.

Fitzgerald has played 14 games with Kolb as his quarterback and 17 games with Skelton. Because two of those games occurred with both Skelton and Kolb under center (Weeks 1 and 6 this season), we eliminated them. So there are 12 games of just Kolb and Fitzgerald and 15 games of just Skelton and Fitzgerald. The results:

Fitzgerald with Kolb: 12 games, 64 receptions, 932 yards, 77.7 yards per game, four touchdowns, 109 total Fantasy points, 9.1 Fantasy points per game.
Fitzgerald with Skelton: 15 games, 82 receptions, 1,243 yards, 82.7 yards per game, seven touchdowns, 153 total Fantasy points, 10.2 Fantasy points per game.
If you want to eliminate all outside factors and just take the stats from the last two years, when both Kolb and Skelton were playing for Arizona (Skelton started five games in 2010 when Kolb was still with Philadelphia), the numbers tilt even more in Skelton's favor, raising Fitzgerald's Fantasy points per game average to 10.8.

Interestingly enough, when Fitzgerald plays with both quarterbacks, he averages 10.5 Fantasy points per game.

While one Fantasy point per game isn't a huge difference, it's enough for Fantasy owners to not drop Fitzgerald's value down because of some misconception that Skelton is the lesser of the two quarterbacks. In fact, Fitzgerald has two games of 20-plus Fantasy points the last two years -- they're both with Skelton as his quarterback.

The Titans pass-catchers are maddening. Through eight games, the Tennessee Titans are 13th in the NFL in passing attempts and 16th in passing yards. But the yards are being spread around to four main pass-catchers, making none of them as valuable as they should be. In fact, the team's second-leading receiver, tight end Jared Cook, has reportedly asked for a trade because they aren't using him enough in the offense. The Titans' receiving yard leaders through eight games:

Nate Washington, 443 yards
Jared Cook, 373 yards
Kendall Wright, 351 yards
Kenny Britt, 209 yards

So far this season, Washington has had one week of 100-plus yards (112 in Week 3), Cook's high is 77 yards (also Week 3), Wright has had a high of 71 yards (Week 6) and Britt's topped out at 62 (Week 6). There is no discernible difference in the receivers' performance with Matt Hasselbeck as quarterback or Jake Locker.

Of the top three point-scoring performances this season, Washington (17 Fantasy points), Cook (13) and Britt (12) each have a spot. But Wright has four of the top 10. And the point leaders on a weekly basis for the group looks like this:

Week 1: Nate Washington, 11 points
Week 2: Kendall Wright, 8 points
Week 3: Nate Washington, 17 points
Week 4: Kendall Wright, 10 points
Week 5: Jared Cook, 9 points
Week 6: Kenny Britt, 12 points
Week 7: Nate Washington, 10 points
Week 8: Kendall Wright, 10 points

But, while Wright has the top score three times, he also had the lowest Fantasy point total of the group three times. Everyone, in fact, has had their turn as the lowest of that group. And the highest. They've averaged 5.9 points per week, with the median score being five points. No receiver has managed a 20 Fantasy point performance through eight games and they've scored fewer than five points more often than they've scored more than five. Of 30 possible weekly scores from the four players (Britt was suspended for Week 1 and missed Week 4 with an injury), they've combined to put up a shoulder-shrugging week of between 30 and 60 yards 17 times. Only once has anyone in the foursome hit triple-digits in receiving yards. It's a maddening dance with mediocrity.

So what does it all mean? Not that the Titans pass-catchers are all garbage -- any given week, one of them will step up and lead the team in Fantasy scoring. The problem is that there's no way to tell who is going to have the good game. If you got excited about Kendall Wright's Week 4 10-point performance and started him, you were then treated to weeks of five, six, and one point. And then he popped up with another 10 last week. The Titans receivers are erratic and their highs aren't worth the lows. Washington is owned in 79 percent of leagues but started in 24. Britt is 87/23. Wright is 60/14. Cook is 74/37. These look more like numbers for players who are coming off bye weeks than would-be starters for Fantasy teams. Halfway through the season, a top receiving threat has yet to emerge. And it may be time to start trimming the fat on these stalled breakouts in favor of players who can help your depth at other positions.

I will say this. Of all these options, I'd rather have Kenny Britt. He's been slowed by injury, has a nice rapport with Hasselbeck and is probably the most talented of these four players. Even though he has the ugliest stat line so far, he's the most likely to rise to the top in the second half of the season.

Kickers are hard to predict. But it doesn't mean some still aren't better than others. Last week, we looked at defenses and rated them using two factors: their average weekly scoring and their consistency on a weekly basis. Through the magic of mathematics, we came up with a single number and a list of 10 DSTs that offered both factors. In other words, a team like the Vikings had a high weekly average, but also served up a few weeks of single-digit scoring. They did not make the top 10 list. This week, we're going to apply the same method to kickers. Your top 10 Fantasy kickers:

1. Lawrence Tynes, NYG, 12.4 Fantasy points per game
2. Matt Bryant, ATL 11.3 FPPG
3. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 11 FPPG
4. Jason Hanson, DET, 10.6 FPPG
5. Kai Forbath, WAS, 10.3 FPPG
6. Justin Tucker, BAL, 10.3 PFFG
7. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, 10.1 FPPG
8. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 10.1 FPPG
9. Blair Walsh, MIN, 9.9 FPPG
10. Shayne Graham, HOU, 9.9 FPPG

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Taking the average fluctuation between scores on a weekly basis, we find that the most consistent kicker in Fantasy football -- as far as his point totals not straying too far from his previous week's scoring output -- is... Mike Nugent. Your top 10:

1. Mike Nugent, CIN, 1.7 Fantasy point fluctuation per week
2. Rian Lindell, BUF, 2.17
3. Dan Carpenter, MIA, 2.5
4. Kai Forbath, WAS, 2.6
5. Shayne Graham, HOU, 2.7
6. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 2.8
7. Garrett Hartley, NO, 3
8. Justin Tucker, BAL, 3.2
9. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 3.3
10. David Akers, SF, 3.3

So now we take the Fantasy points per week, multiply it by two, just to give it a little more weight, and divide it by the fluctuation. This should give us an idea of who is scoring a good amount of points, and doing so on a consistent basis. In other words, these are kickers you can pick up, slide into your K slot, and not have to worry about (unless some kind of injury strikes). There's also no name for this stat, so I'm electing to measure it in units of "aizers" in honor of our cheery podcast host, Adam Aizer, who will likely stumble upon this article while googling his own name:

1. Mike Nugent, CIN, 13.7 aizers
2. Kai Forbath, WAS, 8 aizers
* 3. Shayne Graham, HOU, 7.4 aizers
4. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 7.2 aizers
5. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 6.7 aizers
* 6. Justin Tucker, BAL, 6.5 aizers
7. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, 6.1 aizers
8. Dan Carpenter, MIA, 5.7 aizers
9. David Akers, SF, 5.4 aizers
* 10. Robbie Gould, CHI, 5.2 aizers

[* - has not gone through bye week yet]

You may have noticed that some of the top scorers this season didn't make the final list. It's mainly because Tynes (fourth-highest on the fluctuation list), Bryant (eighth) and Hanson (sixth) had big swings in terms of point totals each week. While Nugent averages just eight points per week, you can depend on him to float between about seven and nine points. Tynes has scored as many as 20 and as few as five. This isn't a list for home run hitters -- it's a list of kickers you can plug into your lineup and not have to worry about. While it's tough to make a case for Nugent as a high-scoring option in the kicker slot -- he's in the middle of the pack as far as scoring -- he is consistent to the point where I tried to use a number of different factors to manipulate him out of the top spot, and he wouldn't budge. So there you have it. Mike Nugent. Possible savior of your Fantasy kicking conundrum.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasyfootball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Bernard Pierce practicing Friday
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:52 am ET) Ravens featured back Bernard Pierce is participating in Friday practice despite a thigh ailment that limited him in the Thursday session.

Pierce certainly appeared healthy in Week 2 against Pittsburgh when he rushed for 96 yards in 22 carries. His team plays at Cleveland on Sunday.


Rolando McClain not looking likely for Week 3
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(11:51 am ET) Cowboys linebacker Rolando McClain (groin) "probably" will not play in Week 3 against the Rams, team owner Jerry Jones told a local radio station Friday, via the Star-Telegram.

McClain has been unable to practice throughout the week with a groin strain, and his official status will be declared when the team's injury report comes out later in the day. 


Jason Avant returns to practice after day off
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(11:49 am ET) Panthers wide receiver Jason Avant returned to practice Friday, according to The Charlotte Observer, after sitting out Thursday's with a thigh injury. His status for Week 3 against the Steelers will be revealed with the team's official injury report Friday. 

Mike Tolbert spotted at Friday's practice
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(11:46 am ET) Panthers running back Mike Tolbert was able to participate in Friday's practice, the second day he has gotten reps in after missing Wednesday's with a chest injury.

Tolbert seems likely to play in Week 3 against the Steelers, but his status will not become official until Friday's injury report comes out later in the day. 


DeAngelo Williams able to practice Friday
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(11:44 am ET) Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams was able to take part in Friday's practice session reports The Charlotte Observer, after sitting out the previous two days while dealing with a thigh injury. This makes his chances of playing in Week 3 against the Steelers better, though his status will not be made official until Friday's injury report is released. 

Robert Woods back in action Friday
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:41 am ET) The Bills received a bit of encouragement Friday with the return of wide receiver Robert Woods to practice, at least as a limited participant.

Woods has missed previous sessions this week with an ankle injury. Doug Marrone had expressed skepticism in regard to his availability for the Sunday game against San Diego.


DeSean Jackson improves, takes part in drills Friday
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(11:27 am ET) While the rest of the injured players worked on a side field, Redskins wide receiver DeSean Jackson went through individual drills at practice Friday, his first action all week while recovering from a shoulder injury.

At this point, it is not clear just how much work Jackson is expected to get, but his status for Week 3 against the Eagles will be determined later Friday with the official injury report. 


Report: Knowshon Moreno expecting to return by Week 6
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:24 am ET) Dolphins new running back Knowshon Moreno has told teammates that he plans on returning to action in Week 6 against Green Bay, the Miami Herald is reporting. He is sidelined with a dislocated elbow sustained in Week 2 against Buffalo.

Hakeem Nicks a no-go Friday with illness
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:20 am ET) Colts wideout Hakeem Nicks is sidelined from his second straight practice Friday with an illness. It remains to be seen if he plays in Week 3 against Jacksonville.

Nicks has been a disappointment since arriving in Indianapolis. He has just six catches for 32 yards in two games and managed just one reception for minus-4 yards Monday night against Philadelphia.


Vontaze Burfict still sidelined from practice Friday
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:12 am ET) Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict could be looking at inactivity Sunday against Tennessee if he doesn't recover quickly from a concussion that again prevented him from practicing Friday, per the team website. He has missed three straight sessions.

Burfict has been dealing with the issue all season. He sustained a concussion in Week 1 before a recurrence of the head injury last Sunday against Atlanta.


 
 
 
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