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Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 9

Senior Fantasy Writer
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As we wade into a ninth week of action, there are some nuggets that are too in-depth for the podcast, too smart for Twitter and a little too short for the full column. Enjoy these Week Fantasy Quick Hits for Week 9:

Your byes for Week 9: St. Louis, New England, N.Y. Jets, San Francisco.

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John Skelton is actually a good thing for Larry Fitzgerald. While the general consensus for Fantasy owners when John Skelton starts for the Cardinals is, essentially, a loud groan of resignation, there is actually statistical proof that when Skelton is the team's quarterback -- and not Kevin Kolb -- Larry Fitzgerald has better games.

Fitzgerald has played 14 games with Kolb as his quarterback and 17 games with Skelton. Because two of those games occurred with both Skelton and Kolb under center (Weeks 1 and 6 this season), we eliminated them. So there are 12 games of just Kolb and Fitzgerald and 15 games of just Skelton and Fitzgerald. The results:

Fitzgerald with Kolb: 12 games, 64 receptions, 932 yards, 77.7 yards per game, four touchdowns, 109 total Fantasy points, 9.1 Fantasy points per game.
Fitzgerald with Skelton: 15 games, 82 receptions, 1,243 yards, 82.7 yards per game, seven touchdowns, 153 total Fantasy points, 10.2 Fantasy points per game.
If you want to eliminate all outside factors and just take the stats from the last two years, when both Kolb and Skelton were playing for Arizona (Skelton started five games in 2010 when Kolb was still with Philadelphia), the numbers tilt even more in Skelton's favor, raising Fitzgerald's Fantasy points per game average to 10.8.

Interestingly enough, when Fitzgerald plays with both quarterbacks, he averages 10.5 Fantasy points per game.

While one Fantasy point per game isn't a huge difference, it's enough for Fantasy owners to not drop Fitzgerald's value down because of some misconception that Skelton is the lesser of the two quarterbacks. In fact, Fitzgerald has two games of 20-plus Fantasy points the last two years -- they're both with Skelton as his quarterback.

The Titans pass-catchers are maddening. Through eight games, the Tennessee Titans are 13th in the NFL in passing attempts and 16th in passing yards. But the yards are being spread around to four main pass-catchers, making none of them as valuable as they should be. In fact, the team's second-leading receiver, tight end Jared Cook, has reportedly asked for a trade because they aren't using him enough in the offense. The Titans' receiving yard leaders through eight games:

Nate Washington, 443 yards
Jared Cook, 373 yards
Kendall Wright, 351 yards
Kenny Britt, 209 yards

So far this season, Washington has had one week of 100-plus yards (112 in Week 3), Cook's high is 77 yards (also Week 3), Wright has had a high of 71 yards (Week 6) and Britt's topped out at 62 (Week 6). There is no discernible difference in the receivers' performance with Matt Hasselbeck as quarterback or Jake Locker.

Of the top three point-scoring performances this season, Washington (17 Fantasy points), Cook (13) and Britt (12) each have a spot. But Wright has four of the top 10. And the point leaders on a weekly basis for the group looks like this:

Week 1: Nate Washington, 11 points
Week 2: Kendall Wright, 8 points
Week 3: Nate Washington, 17 points
Week 4: Kendall Wright, 10 points
Week 5: Jared Cook, 9 points
Week 6: Kenny Britt, 12 points
Week 7: Nate Washington, 10 points
Week 8: Kendall Wright, 10 points

But, while Wright has the top score three times, he also had the lowest Fantasy point total of the group three times. Everyone, in fact, has had their turn as the lowest of that group. And the highest. They've averaged 5.9 points per week, with the median score being five points. No receiver has managed a 20 Fantasy point performance through eight games and they've scored fewer than five points more often than they've scored more than five. Of 30 possible weekly scores from the four players (Britt was suspended for Week 1 and missed Week 4 with an injury), they've combined to put up a shoulder-shrugging week of between 30 and 60 yards 17 times. Only once has anyone in the foursome hit triple-digits in receiving yards. It's a maddening dance with mediocrity.

So what does it all mean? Not that the Titans pass-catchers are all garbage -- any given week, one of them will step up and lead the team in Fantasy scoring. The problem is that there's no way to tell who is going to have the good game. If you got excited about Kendall Wright's Week 4 10-point performance and started him, you were then treated to weeks of five, six, and one point. And then he popped up with another 10 last week. The Titans receivers are erratic and their highs aren't worth the lows. Washington is owned in 79 percent of leagues but started in 24. Britt is 87/23. Wright is 60/14. Cook is 74/37. These look more like numbers for players who are coming off bye weeks than would-be starters for Fantasy teams. Halfway through the season, a top receiving threat has yet to emerge. And it may be time to start trimming the fat on these stalled breakouts in favor of players who can help your depth at other positions.

I will say this. Of all these options, I'd rather have Kenny Britt. He's been slowed by injury, has a nice rapport with Hasselbeck and is probably the most talented of these four players. Even though he has the ugliest stat line so far, he's the most likely to rise to the top in the second half of the season.

Kickers are hard to predict. But it doesn't mean some still aren't better than others. Last week, we looked at defenses and rated them using two factors: their average weekly scoring and their consistency on a weekly basis. Through the magic of mathematics, we came up with a single number and a list of 10 DSTs that offered both factors. In other words, a team like the Vikings had a high weekly average, but also served up a few weeks of single-digit scoring. They did not make the top 10 list. This week, we're going to apply the same method to kickers. Your top 10 Fantasy kickers:

1. Lawrence Tynes, NYG, 12.4 Fantasy points per game
2. Matt Bryant, ATL 11.3 FPPG
3. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 11 FPPG
4. Jason Hanson, DET, 10.6 FPPG
5. Kai Forbath, WAS, 10.3 FPPG
6. Justin Tucker, BAL, 10.3 PFFG
7. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, 10.1 FPPG
8. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 10.1 FPPG
9. Blair Walsh, MIN, 9.9 FPPG
10. Shayne Graham, HOU, 9.9 FPPG

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Taking the average fluctuation between scores on a weekly basis, we find that the most consistent kicker in Fantasy football -- as far as his point totals not straying too far from his previous week's scoring output -- is... Mike Nugent. Your top 10:

1. Mike Nugent, CIN, 1.7 Fantasy point fluctuation per week
2. Rian Lindell, BUF, 2.17
3. Dan Carpenter, MIA, 2.5
4. Kai Forbath, WAS, 2.6
5. Shayne Graham, HOU, 2.7
6. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 2.8
7. Garrett Hartley, NO, 3
8. Justin Tucker, BAL, 3.2
9. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 3.3
10. David Akers, SF, 3.3

So now we take the Fantasy points per week, multiply it by two, just to give it a little more weight, and divide it by the fluctuation. This should give us an idea of who is scoring a good amount of points, and doing so on a consistent basis. In other words, these are kickers you can pick up, slide into your K slot, and not have to worry about (unless some kind of injury strikes). There's also no name for this stat, so I'm electing to measure it in units of "aizers" in honor of our cheery podcast host, Adam Aizer, who will likely stumble upon this article while googling his own name:

1. Mike Nugent, CIN, 13.7 aizers
2. Kai Forbath, WAS, 8 aizers
* 3. Shayne Graham, HOU, 7.4 aizers
4. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 7.2 aizers
5. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 6.7 aizers
* 6. Justin Tucker, BAL, 6.5 aizers
7. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, 6.1 aizers
8. Dan Carpenter, MIA, 5.7 aizers
9. David Akers, SF, 5.4 aizers
* 10. Robbie Gould, CHI, 5.2 aizers

[* - has not gone through bye week yet]

You may have noticed that some of the top scorers this season didn't make the final list. It's mainly because Tynes (fourth-highest on the fluctuation list), Bryant (eighth) and Hanson (sixth) had big swings in terms of point totals each week. While Nugent averages just eight points per week, you can depend on him to float between about seven and nine points. Tynes has scored as many as 20 and as few as five. This isn't a list for home run hitters -- it's a list of kickers you can plug into your lineup and not have to worry about. While it's tough to make a case for Nugent as a high-scoring option in the kicker slot -- he's in the middle of the pack as far as scoring -- he is consistent to the point where I tried to use a number of different factors to manipulate him out of the top spot, and he wouldn't budge. So there you have it. Mike Nugent. Possible savior of your Fantasy kicking conundrum.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasyfootball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Sherman, Chancellor, Thomas all set to play in Super Bowl Sunday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(4:57 pm ET) The Seahawks secondary starters are all active for Sunday's Super Bowl, the team announced. Cornerback Richard Sherman (elbow) and safeties Earl Thomas (shoulder) and Kam Chancellor (knee) are all active for Sunday after being listed as probable for the contest throughout the week.

Running back Marshawn Lynch (back) is also set to play after being listed as probable.

The game is currently pick'em between Seattle and New England.


Seahawks unveil inactives for Super Bowl 49
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(4:53 pm ET) The Seahawks have listed the following players as inactive for Sunday's Super Bowl: B.J. Daniels, Marcus Burley, Patrick Lewis, Keavon Milton, David King, Garry Gilliam and Kevin Norwood, the team announced.

Gilliam caught a fake field goal touchdown during the NFC Championship Game for Seattle.

The game is currently pick'em between Seattle and New England.


Tom Brady, Akeem Ayers get the green light for Super Bowl Sunday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(4:46 pm ET) Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (ankle) and linebackers Akeem Ayers (knee) and Dont'a Hightower (shoulder) are active and set to play in the Super Bowl Sunday against the Seahawks, the team announced.

All three were considered probable and in no real danger of missing the game Sunday. Brady threw for 4,109 yards with 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2014.

Patriots center Bryan Stork is also active after being upgraded to probable for the game Saturday.

The game is currently pick'em between New England and Seattle Sunday.


Jonas Gray among Patriots' inactives for Super Bowl 49
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(4:41 pm ET) Patriots running back Jonas Gray will be inactive for Super Bowl 49 along with Zach Moore, Josh Boyce, Brian Tyms, Joe Vellano, Jordan Devey and James White, the team announced.

Gray, who ran for 412 yards on 89 carries in eight games this season, had four carries for four yards in the AFC Championship game for New England. It was his first action in a game since Dec. 21 againt the Jets when he had six carries for five yards.

The game is currently pick'em between Seattle and New England Sunday.


Report: Peyton Manning could decide on playing future this week
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(2:55 pm ET) Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning may be making his decision sooner rather than later. The soon to be 39-year-old Manning is reportedly set to make his decision as early as this week, according to ESPN NFL Insider Chris Mortensen.

Manning, who has already met with new coach Gary Kubiak, said last week he was waiting to meet with John Elway when he got back from vacation before making up his mind.

Manning, who threw for 4,727 yards and 39 touchdowns in 2014, is due $19 million guaranteed if he is still on the team March 9.


Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman will play Sunday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(2:22 pm ET) Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman is indeed playing in Sunday's Super Bowl. With his girlfriend preparing to have their son very soon, but it will not be happening Sunday.

"I'm playing today," Sherman texted Peter King before the game Sunday.

Sherman totaled 57 tackles and four interceptions in 2014 with one forced fumble.


Lions' president optimistic team will re-sign Ndamukong Suh
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:47 pm ET) Lions team president Tom Lewand is expecting the team to be able to re-sign defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.

"I really do believe he's got a lot invested in here, in himself and the community and the football team," Lewand said Sunday morning during an interview on WDIV-TV's Flashpoint. "He wants to have success in the NFL, obviously, but he wants to do that with us.

"I think there's a very, very good chance that we can get something done with him in the next few weeks."

Suh can become a free agent if the team does not use their franchise tag on him by March 2. 

"We've had a good chunk of our salary cap tied up in three players over the last few years," Lewand told WDIV. "Matthew, Calvin and Ndamukong have all had very lucrative contracts under the old rookie system, and even as Matthew and Calvin have done their extensions. So we've done that, we've lived in that environment. There's no reason we can't continue to live in that environment."


Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant expects to remain with team
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:50 pm ET) Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant said Saturday he is expecting to be back in Dallas in 2015 and have fans excited for a long time.

"Regardless, I’m a Cowboy," Bryant said to NBC Dallas. "But it is what it is. It’s business. I am a free agent. I’m very confident that something is going to happen, something is going to get done, and have these Cowboys fans excited for a long time."

Bryant is set to become a free agent this offseason if he and the Cowboys cannot agree to a deal or Dallas uses the franchise tag on him.

"I’m a Cowboy at heart. It’s Cowboys forever," Bryant said.


Falcons' owner wants Julio Jones long term, but not his decision
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:45 pm ET) Falcons owner Arthur Blank said Sunday the team wants to sign Julio Jones to a contract extension, but it is not his decision to make.

"As the owner, it's not my decision to make," Blank said. "The new coach will spend a great deal of time assessing the roster and all of our players, and obviously Julio is a critical one.

"Well, I think it's a decision that the head coach will look at the talent on the roster," Blank said. "Julio's been a great player for us and a great talent, and he represents us on the field and off the field as well as anybody else."

Jones is set to make $10.2 million in 2015 and will become an unrestricted free agent in 2016 if a new deal is not signed. In 2014, Jones set a franchise-record 1,593 receiving yards in 15 games on 104 receptions with six touchdowns.


Lions' Calvin Johnson wants to keep Ndamukong Suh in Detroit
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11:26 am ET) Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson said he's willing to do just about anything to keep defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh in a Lions uniform, reports MLive.com.

Suh is set to become a free agent in March if the Lions cannot reach a deal with him and Johnson said he wants Suh to remain a Lion.

"I'll do whatever I got to do," Johnson said.


 
 
 
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