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Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 9

Senior Fantasy Writer
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As we wade into a ninth week of action, there are some nuggets that are too in-depth for the podcast, too smart for Twitter and a little too short for the full column. Enjoy these Week Fantasy Quick Hits for Week 9:

Your byes for Week 9: St. Louis, New England, N.Y. Jets, San Francisco.

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John Skelton is actually a good thing for Larry Fitzgerald. While the general consensus for Fantasy owners when John Skelton starts for the Cardinals is, essentially, a loud groan of resignation, there is actually statistical proof that when Skelton is the team's quarterback -- and not Kevin Kolb -- Larry Fitzgerald has better games.

Fitzgerald has played 14 games with Kolb as his quarterback and 17 games with Skelton. Because two of those games occurred with both Skelton and Kolb under center (Weeks 1 and 6 this season), we eliminated them. So there are 12 games of just Kolb and Fitzgerald and 15 games of just Skelton and Fitzgerald. The results:

Fitzgerald with Kolb: 12 games, 64 receptions, 932 yards, 77.7 yards per game, four touchdowns, 109 total Fantasy points, 9.1 Fantasy points per game.
Fitzgerald with Skelton: 15 games, 82 receptions, 1,243 yards, 82.7 yards per game, seven touchdowns, 153 total Fantasy points, 10.2 Fantasy points per game.
If you want to eliminate all outside factors and just take the stats from the last two years, when both Kolb and Skelton were playing for Arizona (Skelton started five games in 2010 when Kolb was still with Philadelphia), the numbers tilt even more in Skelton's favor, raising Fitzgerald's Fantasy points per game average to 10.8.

Interestingly enough, when Fitzgerald plays with both quarterbacks, he averages 10.5 Fantasy points per game.

While one Fantasy point per game isn't a huge difference, it's enough for Fantasy owners to not drop Fitzgerald's value down because of some misconception that Skelton is the lesser of the two quarterbacks. In fact, Fitzgerald has two games of 20-plus Fantasy points the last two years -- they're both with Skelton as his quarterback.

The Titans pass-catchers are maddening. Through eight games, the Tennessee Titans are 13th in the NFL in passing attempts and 16th in passing yards. But the yards are being spread around to four main pass-catchers, making none of them as valuable as they should be. In fact, the team's second-leading receiver, tight end Jared Cook, has reportedly asked for a trade because they aren't using him enough in the offense. The Titans' receiving yard leaders through eight games:

Nate Washington, 443 yards
Jared Cook, 373 yards
Kendall Wright, 351 yards
Kenny Britt, 209 yards

So far this season, Washington has had one week of 100-plus yards (112 in Week 3), Cook's high is 77 yards (also Week 3), Wright has had a high of 71 yards (Week 6) and Britt's topped out at 62 (Week 6). There is no discernible difference in the receivers' performance with Matt Hasselbeck as quarterback or Jake Locker.

Of the top three point-scoring performances this season, Washington (17 Fantasy points), Cook (13) and Britt (12) each have a spot. But Wright has four of the top 10. And the point leaders on a weekly basis for the group looks like this:

Week 1: Nate Washington, 11 points
Week 2: Kendall Wright, 8 points
Week 3: Nate Washington, 17 points
Week 4: Kendall Wright, 10 points
Week 5: Jared Cook, 9 points
Week 6: Kenny Britt, 12 points
Week 7: Nate Washington, 10 points
Week 8: Kendall Wright, 10 points

But, while Wright has the top score three times, he also had the lowest Fantasy point total of the group three times. Everyone, in fact, has had their turn as the lowest of that group. And the highest. They've averaged 5.9 points per week, with the median score being five points. No receiver has managed a 20 Fantasy point performance through eight games and they've scored fewer than five points more often than they've scored more than five. Of 30 possible weekly scores from the four players (Britt was suspended for Week 1 and missed Week 4 with an injury), they've combined to put up a shoulder-shrugging week of between 30 and 60 yards 17 times. Only once has anyone in the foursome hit triple-digits in receiving yards. It's a maddening dance with mediocrity.

So what does it all mean? Not that the Titans pass-catchers are all garbage -- any given week, one of them will step up and lead the team in Fantasy scoring. The problem is that there's no way to tell who is going to have the good game. If you got excited about Kendall Wright's Week 4 10-point performance and started him, you were then treated to weeks of five, six, and one point. And then he popped up with another 10 last week. The Titans receivers are erratic and their highs aren't worth the lows. Washington is owned in 79 percent of leagues but started in 24. Britt is 87/23. Wright is 60/14. Cook is 74/37. These look more like numbers for players who are coming off bye weeks than would-be starters for Fantasy teams. Halfway through the season, a top receiving threat has yet to emerge. And it may be time to start trimming the fat on these stalled breakouts in favor of players who can help your depth at other positions.

I will say this. Of all these options, I'd rather have Kenny Britt. He's been slowed by injury, has a nice rapport with Hasselbeck and is probably the most talented of these four players. Even though he has the ugliest stat line so far, he's the most likely to rise to the top in the second half of the season.

Kickers are hard to predict. But it doesn't mean some still aren't better than others. Last week, we looked at defenses and rated them using two factors: their average weekly scoring and their consistency on a weekly basis. Through the magic of mathematics, we came up with a single number and a list of 10 DSTs that offered both factors. In other words, a team like the Vikings had a high weekly average, but also served up a few weeks of single-digit scoring. They did not make the top 10 list. This week, we're going to apply the same method to kickers. Your top 10 Fantasy kickers:

1. Lawrence Tynes, NYG, 12.4 Fantasy points per game
2. Matt Bryant, ATL 11.3 FPPG
3. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 11 FPPG
4. Jason Hanson, DET, 10.6 FPPG
5. Kai Forbath, WAS, 10.3 FPPG
6. Justin Tucker, BAL, 10.3 PFFG
7. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, 10.1 FPPG
8. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 10.1 FPPG
9. Blair Walsh, MIN, 9.9 FPPG
10. Shayne Graham, HOU, 9.9 FPPG

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Taking the average fluctuation between scores on a weekly basis, we find that the most consistent kicker in Fantasy football -- as far as his point totals not straying too far from his previous week's scoring output -- is... Mike Nugent. Your top 10:

1. Mike Nugent, CIN, 1.7 Fantasy point fluctuation per week
2. Rian Lindell, BUF, 2.17
3. Dan Carpenter, MIA, 2.5
4. Kai Forbath, WAS, 2.6
5. Shayne Graham, HOU, 2.7
6. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 2.8
7. Garrett Hartley, NO, 3
8. Justin Tucker, BAL, 3.2
9. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 3.3
10. David Akers, SF, 3.3

So now we take the Fantasy points per week, multiply it by two, just to give it a little more weight, and divide it by the fluctuation. This should give us an idea of who is scoring a good amount of points, and doing so on a consistent basis. In other words, these are kickers you can pick up, slide into your K slot, and not have to worry about (unless some kind of injury strikes). There's also no name for this stat, so I'm electing to measure it in units of "aizers" in honor of our cheery podcast host, Adam Aizer, who will likely stumble upon this article while googling his own name:

1. Mike Nugent, CIN, 13.7 aizers
2. Kai Forbath, WAS, 8 aizers
* 3. Shayne Graham, HOU, 7.4 aizers
4. Shaun Suisham, PIT, 7.2 aizers
5. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 6.7 aizers
* 6. Justin Tucker, BAL, 6.5 aizers
7. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, 6.1 aizers
8. Dan Carpenter, MIA, 5.7 aizers
9. David Akers, SF, 5.4 aizers
* 10. Robbie Gould, CHI, 5.2 aizers

[* - has not gone through bye week yet]

You may have noticed that some of the top scorers this season didn't make the final list. It's mainly because Tynes (fourth-highest on the fluctuation list), Bryant (eighth) and Hanson (sixth) had big swings in terms of point totals each week. While Nugent averages just eight points per week, you can depend on him to float between about seven and nine points. Tynes has scored as many as 20 and as few as five. This isn't a list for home run hitters -- it's a list of kickers you can plug into your lineup and not have to worry about. While it's tough to make a case for Nugent as a high-scoring option in the kicker slot -- he's in the middle of the pack as far as scoring -- he is consistent to the point where I tried to use a number of different factors to manipulate him out of the top spot, and he wouldn't budge. So there you have it. Mike Nugent. Possible savior of your Fantasy kicking conundrum.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasyfootball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Redskins cornerback Tevin Mitchel out for season
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(4:06 pm ET) Redskins rookie cornerback Tevin Mitchel, a sixth-round pick out of Arkansas, had shoulder surgery and is likely to miss the entire season, per the Washington Post.

Mitchel suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder in Saturday's training camp practice. He had surgery to repair a tear in the right shoulder's labrum prior to his senior year. 


Chargers DT Tenny Palepoi (foot) out for season
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(3:34 pm ET) The Chargers announced Monday that defensive lineman Tenny Palepoi, who played in all 16 games as a rookie, is out for the season with a fractured foot, per the team. 

Palepoi was placed on the Reserved-Injured list, effectively ending his season. The undrafted player from Utah was one of the Chargers' biggest surprises last season, registering four tackles for loss last season. 

"He's made the most out of every single opportunity he's had," Chargers coach Mike McCoy said. "He had an outstanding year last year, and it sucks to be honest with you."


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by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(3:22 pm ET) New Lions acquisition Haloti Ngata has been placed on the Non-Football Injury List by the team with a minor hamstring injury, per the Detroit Free Press, and he will not participate in Monday's practice. 

Ngata, who was traded to Detroit by the ravens in the offseason, can come off the list at any time. The team said they expected Ngata to return to action in about a week. 


Steelers activate C Maurkice Pouncey from PUP list
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Pouncey was dealing with a mild foot sprain, and the team figured it was only a matter of time before he came off the PUP list. 


Falcons LB Brooks Reed (hip) limited in practice
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(2:54 pm ET) Falcons linebacker Brooks Reed was limited in practice Monday with a hip injury, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, with the team keeping him out of action as a precaution. 

Reed, who was slowed by a hamstring injury earlier in the offseason, signed a free agent deal with the Falcons after starring with the Texans. 

"He had a strain so we held (him back)," Falcons coach Dan Quinn said. "He participated some (practice). It was more precautionary."


Report: Steelers rookie CB Senquez Golson may be out for year
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Golson, who has been on the PUP list since the start of training camp, was the Steelers' second-round pick. He had 10 interceptions last season for Mississippi. Golson's injury was a big reason why the Steelers traded for corner Brandon Boykin last week. 


Raiders activate WR Trindon Holliday from PUP list
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(2:11 pm ET) The Raiders activated wide receiver/kick returner Trindon Holliday from the physically unable to perform list Monday, allowing him to participate in his first day of training camp, per the San Francisco Chronicle

Holliday has had some success as a returner, but if he sticks with the Raiders, he will be on his fourth team in four seasons. 


Raiders GM says team may pursue DT Tony McDaniel
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(1:29 pm ET) The Raiders have interest in defensive tackle Tony McDaniel, who was recently released by the Seahawks in a salary cap move, per BayArea.com. 

Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie, when asked about McDaniel, said "there's a chance" the team would pursue McDaniel, who has played for new Oakland coach Jack Del Rio. 

McDaniel had 84 tackles and two sacks during his two seasons in Seattle. 


Cardinals activate TE Jermaine Gresham from PUP list
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(1:12 pm ET) The Cardinals activated veteran tight end Jermaine Gresham from the PUP list on Monday, a sign that Gresham's balky back is improving, per the team.

Gresham underwent back surgery in July, shortly before inking a one-year deal with Arizona. Gresham had played his entire career with the Bengals, recording 62 catches for 460 yards and five touchdowns in 2014.


Panthers DT Star Lotulelei (foot) forced to leave practice
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(12:04 pm ET) Panthers defensive tackle Star Lotulelei was carted off during practice Monday, and Carolina coach Ron Rivera said the veteran suffered a foot injury similar to the one that sidelined him for the playoffs last season, per the Charlotte Observer

Rivera said the team kept out of the remainder of practice as a precaution. Lotulelei suffered a broken foot last January and missed the team's game against the Seahawks. The foot was sore during practice and the Panthers decided to take no chances. 


 
 
 
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