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Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 10

Senior Fantasy Writer
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As we wade into a 10th week of action, there are some nuggets that are too in-depth for the podcast, too smart for Twitter and a little too short for the full column. Enjoy these Quick Fantasy Hits for Week 10:

Your byes for Week 10: Cleveland, Green Bay, Arizona, Washington

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Fun with Thursday night numbers! These Thursday night games have been buzz-kills for Fantasy owners on a few levels: they require us to make decisions three days before the bulk of games are played, if we aren't paying attention, we may forget to put our stud back in the lineup, and the games themselves have lacked a good deal of offensive punch. It's actually the third factor that has been the most annoying to Fantasy owners. So I dug through the stats from this season's Thursday night games, from Week 2 to Week 9 (I eliminated Week 1 because it's an anomaly -- no short rest worries, it was technically a Wednesday game, and it kicked off the season), to see if there was really a big difference in the offensive outputs. Here are some of the highlights:

1. Only five running backs over eight Thursday night games have rushed for over 100 yards. And of those five, four did it in the last three weeks (Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch in Week 7 and Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin in Week 8). In other words, while they started off lackluster, the running backs are improving their performances in the Thursday night contests.

2. Only three players have gone over 100 yards in receiving. And if you look at the top 10, there is just one player who had a game in the last three weeks in the group: Percy Harvin, who caught seven passes for 90 yards in Week 8. So the receivers are going in the opposite direction of the running backs.

3. Of the 16 starting quarterbacks who have played, only three have thrown for 300 yards. They are Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and Brandon Weeden.

4. Quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Average it all out, and quarterbacks have thrown an average of 238 yards with 0.94 touchdowns and 1.13 interceptions. They've also been sacked an average of 2.8 times.

5. Five quarterbacks have failed to throw for a touchdown. They are Brandon Weeden, Kevin Kolb, Cam Netwon, Matt Cassel, and Russell Wilson. Only three quarterbacks, however, have not been intercepted: Kolb, Eli Manning, and Josh Freeman.

5a. A look at Thursday quarterback scoring: The top 25 quarterbacks in Fantasy so far this year have combined to average 19 Fantasy points per game. On Thursdays, however, quarterbacks have averaged just 13.4 Fantasy points per game. Their touchdown to interception ratio is far higher overall (64/36 TD/INT ratio overall; 45/55 TD/INT on Thursday night), and quarterbacks generally throw for fewer yards on Thursday night.

6. There have been just nine rushing touchdowns in these eight games. And only five have been scored by starting running backs: Doug Martin, Adrian Peterson, Andre Brown (Week 3), and Trent Richardson. The rest came from quarterbacks and backups.

7. Of the 62 players who have gotten a carry, nine have scored double-digit Fantasy points. For the season, 18 running backs are averaging double-digit scoring per game. If you consider the eight Thursday games we're looking at as essentially half of a week (of 16 games), it's right in line with the season averages.

8. There have been 16 receiving touchdowns. Eight have been caught by wide receivers, one by a running back, one by a fullback, and six by tight ends. This ratio is way off. On the season, there have been 392 receiving touchdowns hauled in by wide receivers (260 TDs), tight ends (101), and running backs (31). The percentages look like this:

Percentage of touchdowns caught (overall):

Wide receivers: 66 percent
Tight Ends: 26 percent
Running backs: Eight percent

...but on Thursday night, the percentages look like this:

Percentage of touchdowns caught (Thursday night):

Wide receivers: 50 percent
Tight Ends: 38 percent
Running backs: 12 percent

So this is what we can cull from all this data:

a. Quarterbacks throw fewer touchdowns, get intercepted at a higher rate, and don't score as many Fantasy points on Thursday night

b. Running backs remain essentially the same, as far as Fantasy value produced.

c. Wide receivers are getting shorted with the touchdown distribution. If you're looking for a touchdown from your wideout, you may want to keep your Sunday players in and ditch the Thursday ones.

d. Tight ends are looked to in the end zone far more often on Thursday than they are the rest of the week. So, for Week 10, Dwayne Allen owners may want to consider slotting him in the lineup over a similarly-valued tight end.

A brief defense of Taiwan Jones. Jones is in the mix for the lead job in Oakland, with his only competition being Marcel Reece. But Reece is more of a Ronnie Brown-style pass-catcher than a traditional running back. And Fantasy football's history is littered with players -- running backs, especially -- who came out of nowhere to capture a running back job and be a tremendous source of value the rest of the season. Just for a recent example, look at last year and DeMarco Murray. Granted, Murray had some stats over the first six weeks before taking over for an injured Felix Jones (Taiwan Jones has one carry for no yards this season, as he had been battling rib and knee injuries), but Jones is now in a role where he can succeed.

The argument against Jones is two-fold: Marcel Reece complicates his value, and the Raiders never run the ball. The Reece argument is defeated by his usage so far. But then there's the fact that the Raiders are a pass-heavy team. This is true; so far this year, the Raiders are fourth in the league in passing attempts and 30th in rushing attempts. But don't dismiss the Raiders as a team that will never run the ball. Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp has a history of running -- in fact, he had a string of years in the top five of rushing attempts. According to Pro Football Reference, Knapp -- who has served as offensive coordinator for the 49ers (2001-2003), Falcons (2005-2006), Raiders (2007-8, 2012), and Seahawks (2009), has a much longer history of running the ball than he does passing. To be fair to this situation, we'll eliminate his years as OC for the Falcons, as having Michael Vick as the starting quarterback made rushing the ball easy an easy choice (Knapp's offenses finished in the top five of rushing attempts for the three years he was there). But in 2001-2003 with the 49ers, the offense finished second, fifth, and sixth in rushing attempts. And in 2007 and 2008 in his first go-round with the Raiders, the team finished fourth and 10th.

In his first two years with the 49ers, Knapp had a revitalized Garrison Hearst as his starter, but in 2003, relative unknown Kevan Barlow ran for 1,024 yards and six touchdowns. This was his 24-year old season; Jones is 24 this year. Knapp also turned Justin Fargas in to a 1,000-yard rusher in 2007. He does good rushing work with little-known backs. And Jones, a fourth-round pick out of Eastern Washington, fits this bill. Knapp has followed his history in making Brandon Myers a valuable asset at tight end, as he did in nearly every year with almost every tight end he has ever worked with. He has a history of running the ball a good deal -- and there's even evidence of that popping up this year, as the Raiders have two games with 30 or more rushing attempts, and four with 20 or more -- so while there's a decent amount of worry with Jones as the running back, there is enough evidence surrounding him to make Jones worth a speculative pickup in most leagues.

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Fantasy-wise, here are some cool numbers on some very bad defenses, which you want to start your fringey skill players against:

Running backs:

The Buffalo Bills are getting run over by opposing defenses to the tune of 26.5 Fantasy points per game. The next four optimal matchups include:

2. Jacksonville (24.75 Fantasy points per game against)
3. New Orleans (24.5)
4. Tennessee (24.33)
5. Oakland (21.25)

Wide receivers:

The Saints, so very bad against the rush, are even more unimpressive against the pass. They allow 31.25 Fantasy points per game to wideouts. Rounding out the top five:

2. Washington (28.56 Fppg against)
3. Tampa Bay (28.25)
4. Miami (26.5)
5. Indianapolis (26)

Kickers:

This is the column to get your kicker fix, apparently. And the Titans have been very good to kickers, giving up 10.7 Fantasy points per game. The next four?:

2. Carolina (10.5 Fppg against)
3. Oakland (9.88)
4. Baltimore (9.75)
5. Kansas City (9.75)

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasyfootball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Marcus Lattimore eager to start pro career
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(4/20/2014) 49ers running back Marcus Lattimore is ready to start his proffesional career. After blowing out his knee in a gruesome injury in October of 2012 at South Carolina, Lattimore told The State on Sunday that his knee rehab is complete and that he's "ready to play."

Lattimore, who will attend the first day of the team's offseason workouts, will enter a crowded backfield with Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James already backing up current starter Frank Gore. However, James has expressed his desire for a bigger role and could be dealt, opening the door for the No. 3 spot in the backfield.

"If that happens, it does put me in that No. 3 spot," Lattimore said. "But I've just got to go in there and work hard. I can pass-protect and run the ball. I've got to show that."


Raiders bring back Kaelin Burnett
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) The Raiders have inked exclusive-rights free agent Kaelin Burnett to a one-year deal. He's expected to compete for a roster spot in training camp. 

Dekoda Watson moving to strong-side LB
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) In the wake of the release of veteran linebacker Russell Allen, the Jaguars are expected to make Dekoda Watson their new starting strong-side linebacker, ESPN reports. He'll also play as a pass rusher and potentially line up as a defensive end on third downs. 

Watson had 42 total tackles, two sacks, an interception, a pass defensed, a forced fumble and a blocked punt with the Bucs last year. 


Brandon Gibson begins light jogging
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) Brandon Gibson has begun light jogging as he works his way back from a torn patellar tendon, the Miami Herald reports. The Dolphins are expected to keep him on the roster, if only because of the cap hit he'll cost, per the report. He said recently he expects to be ready for Week 1. 

'Humbled' Richardson explains 2013, promises a better 2014
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) Colts running back Trent Richardson spoke openly about his disappointing 2013 season, saying that it took him too long to learn a new playbook and get over leaving Cleveland after Week 2. Richardson also told the official team website that he's planning to do everything within his power to be as prepared as possible for 2014. 

"Y'all will see a big significant difference in the way I play, the speed. I won't have to think about a lot of stuff," Richardson said earlier this offseason. "It's going to be big -- timing with the offensive line, timing with Andrew (Luck), just knowing a lot more with the program, the whole system.

"They haven't seen everything they're going to get out of me yet. A lot of it is going to come next year. A lot of it is going to come in the offseason. I'm going to put in a lot of work, as I've been doing this whole season. This season humbled me. ... This season was a lesson to me."

Colts coach Chuck Pagano has had Richardson's back, says the running back, and the coach stressed back in March that his running back's involvement in the offseason program will be key. 

"It's going to be very, very important for (Richardson) to be here for the offseason program and to dive into this thing full steam ahead, which he will," Pagano said. "He wants to be great. He's got all the talent. He's got all the ability. We would have never done what we did if we didn't believe that deep down in our core. So we look for him to have a great offseason and to have a great 2014 campaign."


Saints bring back Robert Meachem
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) The Saints announced Friday that the club has re-signed veteran free agent wide receiver Robert Meachem to a one-year contract.

Meachem is a seven-year NFL veteran who was originally the club's first round draft pick (27th overall) in 2007. He re-signed with the Saints prior to the start of the 2013 regular season and appeared in 15 games with five starts. He finished with 16 receptions for 324 yards with two touchdowns.

Meachem said signing with the Saints now should help with his preparations as he will be able to take part in the team's offseason conditioning program, OTAs and mini-camp. Plus, "this is home," he said.


Can Chris Johnson turn into Tomlinson?
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) The Jets are hoping running back Chris Johnson can do for them what LaDainian Tomlinson did in 2010, reports ESPN.

That season, Tomlinson came from San Diego to New York after he was released. He responded with a team-high 914 yards with six touchdowns on 219 carries and caught 52 passes. He was supposed to be Shonn Greene's backup, but Tomlinson was so impressive that he won the starting job and became an integral part of a team that came within one game of the Super Bowl.

Maybe Johnson, who was let go by the Titans, can do the same thing.

"I can turn the bad things people are saying into a good thing for me, to give me motivation, to keep me hungry and to keep a chip on my shoulder and prove the naysayers wrong," he said Thursday.

Johnson had a disappointing year in 2013 when he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, but he played 13 games on a torn meniscus and was running behind a suspect offensive line for a team that didn't have its starting quarterback for half the season. The situation in New York should be improved, and hopefully being teamed with Chris Ivory will allow him to play like Tomlinson did in 2010.


Aikman worried about Tony Romo
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) Former Cowboys quarterback and Hall of Famer Troy Aikman is worried about current Dallas quarterback Tony Romo coming off back surgery, reports the team's official website.

Romo, 34, is coming off back surgery in December, which was the second procedure on his back in a year.

"I came back in a relatively short period of time because of when I had my surgery, so he's at least afforded more time to get ready," Aikman said. "But having said that, two back surgeries in less than a year at his age, I would be a bit concerned.

"I'm hopeful that he's able to come back -- everybody is. This team won't be the same if he's not able to. I anticipate that he will come back. But to say that, 'Hey, he's ahead of schedule and everything's going fine,' I'm not sure how you can really measure that here in April."


Bengals, A.J. Green not talking extension - yet
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) The Bengals are expected to exercise the fifth-year option on receiver A.J. Green's contract by May 3, reports Pro Football Talk. But the sides have yet to discuss a long-term contract extension, according to the report.

The Bengals hold the rights to Green through the 2015 season. And in 2016, if a long-term deal hasn't been signed yet, the Bengals can use the franchise tag on Green for that season.

The report says Green can force the issue by trying to boycott offseason workouts or hold out from training camp. But Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is confident Green will be there.


Chris Snee will give it a shot this spring
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) Giants guard Chris Snee will attempt to go through the Giants offseason program once he's healthy, the New York Daily News reports. Snee had hip surgery last season and an elbow surgery earlier this year. There is no timeline for him to be at 100 percent but he is expected to be on the field for the "bulk" of offseason activities. 

 
 
 
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