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Fantasy & Reality: Second-string impact

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Panic set in for 49ers, Bears, Eagles and Steelers fans last week when their respective starting quarterbacks went down with injuries (some in Philly might say panic set in months ago). Only the Steelers came out of their game with a win in a close shave with the Chiefs; the rest either lost or tied.

It appears the 49ers will get Alex Smith back for their Week 11 game against the Bears but the other starters -- Jay Cutler, Michael Vick and Ben Roethlisberger -- will be out. What are the implications for each team? We're glad you asked ...

Philadelphia Eagles

Of the backups-turned-starters, Foles is the best bet not just for Week 11 but for the rest of the season. Michael Vick's concussion could be the impetus for the Eagles to move toward the future and see what they have in the rookie, a tryout of sorts for the final seven games.

Foles fits for what the Eagles want. He's making quick decisions most of the time and throws with pretty good accuracy. A knock on him entering the draft was that he was slow to make decisions with the football, so this is a positive. Against the Cowboys last week there were several passes that were off target, which is to be expected considering he came in at a moment's notice. A week's worth of practice and working on his timing with the Eagles' starters could easily fix that. Foles also has a pretty strong arm, stronger than what we initially thought when he was drafted. During the preseason he connected on several long passes and put up a bomb to a wide-open Jeremy Maclin last week. Foles also has good mobility in the pocket -- nothing like Vick -- but better than your typical deer-in-headlights rookie.

Combine that with the receiving options in Philly along with the Eagles getting a starting offensive lineman back and then tack on the matchup against the Redskins, who rank dead-last against the pass and have allowed 21 or more Fantasy points to seven of the nine quarterbacks they've faced, and there's some pretty good potential here. He's worth starting if you're in a pinch but if you're just looking to speculate on a potential No. 2 quarterback for the rest of the season, look no further than Foles.

With Foles being a good replacement for Vick, the receiving options in Philadelphia should remain useful. I wouldn't count on a huge game from Jeremy Maclin or DeSean Jackson but I'd roll the dice on them as starting options. I first believed Jackson was the better play, but after Maclin had the majority of targets last week and seems to be the better receiver for slightly-off passes compared to Jackson (who did make a circus catch vs. Dallas) I'll take Mac. And we did see Foles lean on tight ends near the end zone during the preseason -- half of his touchdown passes and three of four inside the 10 went to tight ends -- so perhaps Brent Celek could be better than a desperation choice. Ultimately the matchup against the Redskins (double-digit Fantasy points to 13 wide receivers and five tight ends through nine games) helps keep those players appealing.

Chicago Bears

Last year the Bears' season was over when Jay Cutler went down with an injury. Cutler's season isn't in limbo following a Week 10 concussion, but he's not expected to play when the Bears face the 49ers on Monday. Stepping in for him will be Jason Campbell, who is an upgrade over what the Bears had behind Cutler in the past but does kind of put a cap on the Bears' offense. All you need to know is that he struck out as the starter in Washington and was pushed aside as the starter in Oakland last season. If he was a decent quarterback who made his receivers better, he wouldn't be a backup. Hopefully no one is desperate enough to start him in Fantasy this week.

However, his arrival could impact Brandon Marshall significantly. Last week Marshall caught six of nine targets from Campbell. All but two passes traveled longer than 10 yards, including a bomb that was thrown well and caught in double coverage by Marshall. Campbell is known for throwing short and not airing it out. To wit, 58 of his 74 touchdowns have come from inside of 20 yards. Also, 31 of those touchdowns have gone to tight ends or tackle-eligible offensive linemen. For Marshall to have a good game he'll need about eight receptions, which is far from unthinkable. If Marshall could get over 100 yards against the Texans in a rainstorm last week he has a good chance to do about the same against the Niners.

The Bears would be smart to add an x-factor receiver like Danny Amendola, who tortured the Niners last week. That player just might be Matt Forte, who is a fine route-runner and has excellent hands. Expect Campbell to lean on Forte and for the rusher to get a crack at picking up more than the season-high 49 receiving yards he has already. The Niners allowed 78 yards on nine catches to running backs over the last two weeks, so it's not going to be a lay-up for the Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers

If you're expecting the Steelers to keep throwing the ball without Ben Roethlisberger on the field, think again. Byron Leftwich's best days as a starter are long behind him (some in Jacksonville might argue they never came), but that doesn't even matter. Since Mike Tomlin's been the Steelers head coach it's seemed as if he'd ordered an edict to not throw unless absolutely necessary when Roethlisberger is sidelined. And it's a game plan that has worked -- except against the Ravens.

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In six games without Big Ben (there's a seventh but it was a meaningless Week 17 game), Tomlin's quarterbacks have handed off more than passed in every single game. And as you might imagine, the Steelers' running backs have seven touchdowns in those six games versus four passing touchdowns for the quarterbacks. The Steelers are 4-2 with both losses coming against Baltimore, who come to Pittsburgh in Week 11.

Now there's a chance that Tomlin changes his tune: The Steelers' offensive line has been pretty decent in pass protection (19 sacks allowed) and the Ravens will enter the game down another starting cornerback with Jimmy Smith sidelined with a sports hernia. If the Steelers had Antonio Brown active they might be willing to take some chances with the football. But with Brown next to Roethlisberger on the bench and the Ravens' run defense at its worst point in years, safe speculation is that the Steelers will lean on their three-headed run game and try to run their way to a win. Rashard Mendenhall is expected back this week and he should do well while expectations should be lowered for Mike Wallace and Heath Miller.

The time to trade is now

Not everyone has seen their trade deadline pass, and if you're in a league that can still deal and you have two quality passers on your roster, you can move one now without much trouble. Earlier this season owners wouldn't budge for a quarterback because there were so many to go around. But that was when Vick and Roethlisberger were considered good starters. Say you're one of these owners who deftly drafted a surefire starter like Matt Ryan and a rookie like Andrew Luck. Getting something, almost anything, for Luck could be wise since you'll probably never start him over Ryan down the stretch.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) from around the league.

Fantasy: The quarterbacks in the Bucs-Panthers game will make you nervous. Though the matchup is decidedly better for Cam Newton than for Josh Freeman, it's clear to me that both players will appease Fantasy owners. Newton will take on a Bucs pass defense that is getting by with a young secondary minus Ronde Barber. They were pummeled early on against the Chargers last week and had to make some great plays to keep the Chargers from coming back. Tight ends have decimated the Bucs of late and Newton has rediscovered Greg Olsen over the last two weeks (19 targets). Cam should deliver, as should Freeman. He's been on fire since the Bucs' bye week and even though this is statistically his toughest matchup since the bye, he and the rest of the Bucs offense is too good to pass up.

Reality: The matchup for Andrew Luck might not be as juicy as it appears. It's been documented over and over again that Luck isn't at his best on the road. Though he isn't as horrible as, oh, I don't know, Joe Flacco, he still hasn't delivered a reliable stat line. In standard formats, his best road game (18 points at Jacksonville) is equal to his worst home game (vs. Cleveland). While the Patriots' pass defense has looked as good as Bill Belichick in a sundress they will get cornerback Aqib Talib on the field, a player they acquired from the Bucs a couple of weeks back. Is he enough to make a difference? Maybe not against a great passing team but the Colts aren't quite that. Luck could be right back in that 18-point range even though the Patriots have allowed 20-plus Fantasy points to five of the last seven passers they've faced. Don't reach hard for Donnie Avery or T.Y. Hilton.

Fantasy: Steven Jackson is over the hill. One of the best parts of the bye week is that teams can re-invent their offenses and find new ways to move the chains. Or they can bring back old ways. Whatever works. The Rams got off to a hot start against the 49ers last week on the ground and Steven Jackson saw a season-best 29 carries for 101 yards and a touchdown. And before you play the "well he played in overtime" card, know that only five carries came in OT and he had 15 yards on those runs. Though he was helped along by a hot start, the resulting stats are indicative that not only can he still produce when given the opportunity, but that the coaching staff may be open to giving him those opportunities. With the bumbling Jets coming to St. Louis on Sunday, Jackson stands out as a great Fantasy option.

Reality: I don't get the BenJarvus Green-Ellis love this week. No one is more guilty than I am for projecting good games for The Law Firm but this week doesn't rub me the right way. Green-Ellis has averaged 3.4 yards per carry this season and just isn't doing much even though he's getting 15-plus carries for the Bengals in pretty much every game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have played well against the run despite their skid, allowing four rushing touchdowns on the year and none in their last three games against the Raiders, Chargers and Steelers. They've also allowed one rushing back -- Jackie Battle -- to score at Arrowhead all year and turnovers played a big role in those opportunities for him. He would be a running back I would settle for starting this week with little to no enthusiasm. I much prefer his matchup at home vs. the Raiders in Week 12.

DST sleepers for Week 11

All of our DST sleepers are owned in 50 percent of CBSSports.com leagues or less.

Last week's DST sleepers: Buccaneers (20 Fantasy points) and Eagles (five points).

Rams (vs. Jets) ... As of this writing the Rams DST is owned in 42 percent of CBSSports.com leagues. By the weekend they might be over 50 percent owned. Obviously the juicy matchup against the Jets is the reason why people are after them. Each of the last three defenses to play the Jets -- including the Patriots -- totaled 18 or more Fantasy points in standard leagues. The Jets have allowed 11 sacks in three weeks with at least one fumble and one interception per game.

Saints (at Raiders) ... This one comes with a couple of "ifs." If Darren McFadden is out as expected, and if Darrius Heyward-Bey also misses the game (he missed practice Thursday with a hamstring problem), then the Saints DST is good enough to go with assuming other sleepers that are owned in more than 50 percent of leagues like the Bengals, Cowboys or Buccaneers are not available. This is as low as it gets but it's still safer than the Eagles, Redskins, Colts and Panthers defenses.

Two more things

• A week ago I was "big" on Ryan Tannehill and Brian Hartline against the Titans. On Thursday I was "big" on Reggie Bush against the Bills. I feel like a "big" idiot. After watching both games it can be inferred that the Dolphins have issues all over the place with their run game and that Tannehill still has a long way to go as a passer. With Bush not getting the kind of work we had hoped for (maybe it's tied to his knee injury from Week 3, maybe it's tied to the coaching staff's interest in Daniel Thomas) and Hartline being too on-again, off-again, now is the time to start thinking twice about using Dolphins in Fantasy. Here's the rest of their schedule: vs. Seattle, vs. New England, at San Francisco, vs. Jacksonville, vs. Buffalo and at New England. Some favorable matchups there, but what good have they done Miami lately?

• Sort of related to the above post, we're all learning that these Thursday night games are colossal pigs. It only makes sense: The players are playing on only a few days rest and without much time to prepare, and that lack of turn-around time hurts offenses as well as defenses. Through 10 games we've seen one game decided by three points or less, three by seven points or less. We've seen eight teams score over 21 points and eight teams score 14 or fewer points. Fantasy studs in these games have been few and far between. The smart thing to do going forward is to bench your non-essential players, a problem a lot of people will have in Week 12 when the Lions, Texans, Cowboys, Redskins and Patriots all play on Thanksgiving (the Jets play on Thanksgiving too but not many of those guys are even on Fantasy rosters).

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

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Player News
Vikings' Adrian Peterson to begin probation on Wednesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Vikings running back Adrian Peterson will begin his probation on Wednesday, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Peterson will begin community service, and will undergo counseling to determine whether he has a drug problem. Peterson will report to a probation officer once a month in order to take a drug test. The strict drug testing stems from an Oct. 8 pre-trail urinalysis. Peterson admitted to "smoking a little weed," though the results from the test were never disclosed. 

Probation officials will also determine whether Peterson needs to attend parenting classes. 

Per his plea agreement, Peterson was fined $4,000 and ordered to perform 80 hours of community service. He's required to perform at least 16 hours per month, which would allow him to complete to program prior to training camp.

Peterson is under contract with the Vikings for next season, and is set to earn $12.75 million. The team is not allowed to communicate with Peterson during his suspension. 


Austin Collie signs with CFL's BC Lions
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Free-agent receiver Austin Collie has signed with the BC Lions of the Canadian Football League, the team announced Thursday.

"I’m excited to be joining the Lions and very much look forward to playing in the CFL," said Collie. "The wide-open play of the Canadian game and the passion of fans across the league is going to be a lot of fun to experience."

Collie played four seasons with the Colts and one with the Patriots. In his last NFL action, he caught four passes for 57 yards in the 2014 AFC Championship Game.


Eagles RB LeSean McCoy: 'I don't want to take less money'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Eagles running back LeSean McCoy reiterated Thursday that while he'd be willing to restructure his contract if asked, he would not accept a pay cut, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

"I know how hard it is to keep a team together and I want to be part of this team. But I don't want to take less money," McCoy said. "I want to figure a way to make it happen [where] we're all together."

McCoy, who is due to count $11.95 million against the cap in 2015, turned in his fourth 1,000-yard season in the last five years in 2014, finishing with 1,319 rushing yards on 312 carries and 155 receiving yards on a career-low 28 receptions. All five of his touchdowns came on the ground.


Bills' Rex Ryan won't commit to EJ Manuel as starting QB
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) When asked about who his starting quarterback would be in 2015, Bills coach Rex Ryan said the team would look at every available option, reports The Buffalo News.

"We're going to exhaust every resource we can," Ryan said. "We'll look at free agents. We'll look at the draft. We'll look at anything."

The Bills have former first-round pick EJ Manuel on their roster, but Ryan said he would not commit to Manuel as his starting quarterback at this time.

"To say that he's definitely going to be the guy, it's way too early to say that," Ryan said.


Bills RB Fred Jackson excited to play for new coach Rex Ryan
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Bills veteran running back Fred Jackson said he hasn't had the opportunity to meet with new coach Rex Ryan, but that didn't stop him from expressing his excitement about the new coaching regime in Buffalo.

"I can't wait to play for him. I've heard nothing but good things," Jackson said Wednesday of Ryan during an interview on ESPN New York 98.7 FM. "I'm looking forward to that [first] conversation when I sit down and talk to him."

The Bills finished 9-7 in 2014, which was their best record since 2004. While Jackson believes Ryan is going to "be that catalyst that comes in and pushes us over that hump," he didn't have many bad things to say about coach Doug Marrone, who opted out of his contract New Year's Eve.

"I thought he was a tremendous coach," Jackson said. "He showed up, he worked hard, he pushed players to give their best effort. He got us to a 9-7 record -- we hadn't won nine games in 10 years. There's definitely some things about him that made him a great coach. It's just the way he exited. I don't think anybody expected that. 

"Players, the way we found out is we got a generic text from him, saying that he was moving on and he had chosen to opt out of his contract." 


Justin Tuck: Raider Nation would appluad signing Ndamukong Suh
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) If defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh doesn't sign a long-term deal with the Lions, then he will become a free agent March 10 and there will be plenty of teams interested in the Pro Bowl lineman. 

Raiders defensive end Justin Tuck indicated if Suh wanted to sign with Oakland, then he would be welcomed in Raider Nation.

"(He's) Raider-ish," Tuck said, per the Detroit Free Press. "And that's one of the reasons why I know Raider Nation would applaud that move, beyond the fact that he's an awesome football player. He kind of fits the mold of ... the toughness and the ferocious player that built the Oakland Raiders."

It is speculated Suh will receive a contract worth at least $100 million. Tuck believes the three-time All-Pro deserves such a lucrative deal.

"The thing about him, you know what you're getting every day. Some of the tactics, you could probably do without, but he's a hell of a football player," Tuck said. "I would love to have the opportunity to line up beside of him and let him take all the double teams that I normally take."


Nick Foles: 'I plan on being in Philly' in 2015
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) There has been a lot of talk about quarterback Nick Foles' future with the Eagles, especially since Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly's former pupil at Oregon -- Marcus Mariota -- will be part of this year's draft class.

On Thursday, Foles addressed the rumors and stated he is expecting to be back on the Eagles' roster in 2015.

"Yeah you hear about it," Foles said in between doing paid appearances at Super Bowl XLIX, per NJ.com. "You are going to hear about it every single year. That's just part of it. The main word is 'rumor.' You can't put too much into it....I plan on being in Philly.

"I only listen to (head coach) Chip Kelly. That's what is most important. He is the one that will make the decision. Right now all I am going to do is work because I plan on being back in Philadelphia and playing with my team. That's all I ever thought. So that is what I plan on doing and I'm not looking at it any other way."

Foles added he hasn't talked with Kelly since the end of the season.

"We haven't talked a lot. He has a lot going on," Foles said. "This time of year you really just get away from everything. He is busy looking at the draft, doing all that. I saw he is more of the decision maker. Haven't really talked to him too much, but I'm sure I'll hear from him soon."


Dwyer pleads guilty in domestic violence case, gets probation
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Cardinals running back Jonathan Dwyer pleaded guilty Thursday in Maricopa County (Ariz.) Superior Court to a single count of disorderly conduct pertaining to his domestic violence case, according to The Arizona Republic.

Dwyer was sentenced to 18 months of probation and community service following the plea, according to a court spokesman.

The 25-year-old Dwyer was arrested Sept. 17 for a July 21 incident in which he allegedly head-butted his wife in the face and broke her nose after she refused his sexual advances and bit his lip, according to reports taken at the time.

Dwyer's wife told police she reported the incident in September because she feared for their child's safety after seeing reports of Vikings running back Adrian Peterson's arrest on child-abuse charges.

The Cardinals placed Dwyer on the reserve/non-football injury list after his September arrest. He did not play again during the 2014 season.


Tom Brady on Peyton Manning: 'I certainly hope he comes back'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) While the football world anxiously awaits official word from Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning about his playing status for the 2015 season, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady -- and longtime Manning rival -- said Thursday he hopes the five-time NFL MVP will continue his career.

"What a great player he's been for this league," Brady said Thursday, per NFL.com. "He's a great competitor, and I've been fortunate to play against him a bunch of times. I certainly hope he comes back, 'cause the league will miss him if he doesn't. But those decisions are up to him. I'm sure it's up to whether he's mentally and physically -- that's what he wants to do. But I certainly hope he's back."

Archie Manning, Peyton's father, told NFL Network on Thursday that his son hasn't made a decision yet.

"Well, Peyton evaluates things; he's pretty good at that," he said. "I can't tell him what to do, and he hasn't told me what he's going to do. But I do know that he's really giving a lot of things a lot of thought. He's thinking about where he is physically, he wants to see how he can do this some more, trying to get over an injury."

Archie added starting over with new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak will not be an issue for Peyton, if he decides to return next season.

"Yeah, but he loves Gary. He likes Gary," Archie Manning said. "He liked John Fox. He liked Adam Gase. All those things, I think, are considered with. But my deal is he's always made good decisions; he's pretty thorough. He's going to evaluate a lot of things, and I think he'll make a good decision."


RG3: 'I could've sat out the rest of last year' after hurting ankle
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) During a radio interview Wednesday night, Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III indicated the dislocated ankle he suffered in Week 2 against the Jaguars hindered him the rest of the season. He missed six games due to the injury.

“I had never suffered an ankle injury of that severity before, so I didn’t really know what to expect,” Griffin said, per The Washington Times. “It just became more and more tough the more games that we lost, because you know how hard your guys work, and you want to get out there and help them win games.

“I could’ve sat out the rest of last year, with how bad the ankle was, but I felt like I could play, and I wanted to get out there and play with my guys and help them win games. And that didn’t happen when I got back out there. Then coach made a decision [to bench me]. That was an unfortunate decision, and something we all had to go with because that was coach’s choice.”

Griffin will be entering the final guaranteed year of his contract in 2015. The Redskins have until May 3 to decide if they want to exercise the fifth-year option on his contract for 2016. 

Griffin added his focus this offseason will simply be on getting healthy.

“Last year, I wasn’t healthy, and it sucked,” Griffin told ESPN 980. “There’s no other way to say it other than that. When you dislocate your ankle in the second week of the season, when you and your team had big things in mind. So I guess it’s just getting healthy, getting a mental break, getting a chance to spend time with family, and then formulate my plan going forward from this year so we can go out there and win games.”


 
 
 
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