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Dear Mr. Fantasy: No time for complacency

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

So ... you ready for the playoffs?

I don't mean, like, emotionally. I mean intellectually. Have you put in the time to prepare yourself for a win-or-go-home scenario?

If you're still fighting for a playoff spot, you get a pass. Your energies belong elsewhere. Chances are playoff preparations would subvert your short-term goals anyway.

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But if you've already clinched a playoff spot, now is the time to act, before someone else beats you to it. Scope out Weeks 15 and 16. See what needs you might have at that point.

Waiting around until the Wednesday before could be what ends your season.

I've made the playoffs. What's the No. 1 thing to do now? Add depth? -- @CT_FOX (via Twitter)

SW: Wait, you mean you don't just plan to go on autopilot and assume all that win-loss stuff will take care of itself? OK, Mr. Overachiever.

Assuming the trade deadline has passed in your league -- and if not, what's up with that? -- I don't see how you have any choice but to add depth. You have to be smart about it, of course. If you've already clinched, chances are you have a lineup full of studs such as Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin -- players who you wouldn't consider sitting except because of injury -- meaning the kind of depth you should pursue is their handcuff options, such as Toby Gerhart and LeGarrette Blount. What good is gambling on a David Wilson if he has no legitimate chance of sniffing your lineup?

If, however, you have a starting spot that isn't quite as settled -- maybe you've been shuffling between Ryan Mathews and Michael Turner or have had to make do with Marcel Reece -- then you're more likely to benefit from a risk-reward type like Wilson. Jackie Battle isn't any kind of remedy for poor production.

You could also stand to benefit from looking ahead to Weeks 15 and 16 (or whenever your particular league conducts its playoffs). Knowing Beanie Wells is facing the Jets' 30th-ranked run defense this week is a great help for right now, but you don't so much care about right now. You care about Week 16, when he's facing the Bears' eighth-ranked run defense.

True, Wells is a borderline case. You probably wouldn't sit Peterson in Week 16 just because he's facing the Texans' second-ranked run defense. But at some position on your roster, even if it's just DST, you'll want to be prepared for when the matchups go bad. The playoffs are no time to cross your fingers and hope for the best.

Danario Alexander or Malcom Floyd at wide receiver this week? -- @Oh_Dinky (via Twitter)

SW: Philip Rivers just hasn't taken to Floyd the way I thought he would at the start of the season. Yeah, Floyd has put up some Fantasy points lately with three touchdowns in his last four games, but to have only two games with more than 70 yards all season? Sorry, but I expected more. You'd think with Vincent Jackson out of town and Antonio Gates a shell of his former self, Rivers would have no choice but to lean on Floyd, but he hasn't.

So who has he leaned on? Over the last three weeks, it's been Danario Alexander, who already has three games with 70-plus receiving yards even though he's only been active for five. Before then, it was ... Ronnie Brown, maybe? I'd venture to say no one. In his first eight games, otherwise known as pre-Alexander era, Rivers averaged 233.3 passing yards 1.5 touchdown passes. In his last three, with Alexander unhinged, he's averaged 274.3 with 2.0 touchdown passes.

In other words, you don't have to make the decision because Rivers has already made it for you: He would rather fail than throw the ball to Floyd.

OK, so he still throws the ball to Floyd plenty. The targets kind of speak for themselves there. Still, by now, you have to recognize that Alexander is capable of doing more with those throws than Floyd is. The Chargers recognized it from the first time he saw extensive action in Week 9. Just think back to what coach Norv Turner had to say about the Rams castoff back before all this mess started Week 10 at Tampa Bay:

"Danario's going to play," Turner told the San Diego Union-Tribune. "He's going to be a big part of what we do."

And don't you forget it.

Truth be told, I can't say whether or not Floyd will catch another touchdown pass Week 13 against the Bengals. It's plenty possible. But I can say with unwavering assurance that Alexander is the more consistent of Chargers wide receivers and the one with the higher upside.

I need to win to make playoffs in a points-per-reception league. Would you pick up Ryan Broyles or T.Y. Hilton to play over Steve Smith or Percy Harvin? -- @Westernsubs (via Twitter)

SW: I love Broyles. Let's get that out there right now. After that six-catch, 126-yard effort he put together on Thanksgiving, I'd carve a heart with his name in it into a tree if I could -- which is a total lie because, well, what's stopping me?

Why am I so found of him? Hey, I was the same way with Titus Young when Nate Burleson went down with a broken leg back in Week 7, and Young delivered similar results with nine catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns Week 8 against the Seahawks. The reason he couldn't keep it up is because a little guy named Broyles kept getting in his way -- and because, you know, he kept putting himself before the team, which is what got him suspended last week, which is what allowed Broyles to put up those numbers.

So let me ask you this: With Young now out of the picture, who's left to get in Broyles' way? Tony Scheffler?

When the Lions eventually settle on a second wide receiver opposite Calvin Johnson, that wide receiver is predisposed to big numbers. The Lions as a whole are predisposed to big numbers. They like to pass, and with Matthew Stafford under center, they do a pretty good job of it. No, he hasn't had the best season Fantasy-wise, but he still leads the NFL with 3,429 passing yards. They can't all be going to Calvin Johnson. Free up a few cooks in that kitchen, and you'll really see a meal made.

Now, Young isn't off the team or anything. The Lions could always reinstate him for Week 13 against the Colts, but I think they'll have a pretty easy time justifying the transition to Broyles after the way that whole episode went down.

OK, now that I've made my feelings on Broyles perfectly clear, we can tackle the question at hand: Would I start him over Smith or Harvin?

Probably not Harvin, provided he's healthy. His role as sort of a split-wide running back makes him too productive to sit in points-per-reception leagues. But since I don't necessarily expect this week to be the week he returns from a sprained ankle, yes, I would anticipate starting Broyles instead.

And if it comes to it, I'd also start Broyles over Smith, who even in Cam Newton's best game of the season Monday, managed just four catches for 60 yards. He's become mostly a deep-ball threat on an offense that hasn't had much success with the deep ball this season. Newton doesn't have enough completions in him to sustain Smith along with Brandon LaFell and Greg Olsen.

Most Traded Players (as of 11/28)
Player # of trades
1. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams 1,236
2. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions 1,219
3. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers 1,208
4. Andrew Luck, QB, Colts 1,207
5. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots 1,197
6. Josh Freeman, QB, Buccaneers 1,173
7. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs 1,159
8. Carson Palmer, QB, Raiders 1,141
9. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons 1,136
10. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals 1,122

As for Hilton, he has some big-game potential, but he's in a kitchen with too many cooks himself. And the Colts' passing game isn't quite as productive as the Lions'.

Given Bryce Brown's performance Monday night, how worried do I need to be about LeSean McCoy losing his job? I have him in multiple keeper leagues. -- @liefmeyer (via Twitter)

SW: Brown unseating McCoy is a possibility worth pondering, but ultimately, it won't happen. With all of Michael Vick's struggles over the last couple years, McCoy has essentially been the Eagles offense, and his contributions in that role have made him a Fantasy stud. He scored 20 touchdowns last year, for crying out loud. I don't see how they could abandon him so quickly.

Of course, he wouldn't be the first high-profile running back to lose his job seemingly through no fault of his own, right in the thick of his prime. Shoot, if he played for the Bills, he'd just be the latest in a long line of early removals, from Willis McGahee in 2007 to Marshawn Lynch in 2009 to Fred Jackson just this year.

But for as good as McGahee, Lynch and Jackson were, they weren't McCoy. None was a top-three pick in Fantasy. None was on pace for a third straight 1,500-yard season at the time of his removal.

The Eagles like Brown, and his performance Monday will likely make them extra cautious in their treatment of McCoy's concussion. But now that they've fallen out of the playoff race, they don't stand to gain anything by transitioning to Brown now. Even if they think he's the better running back (which is still very much in question), all they do by benching McCoy is deplete the value of their greatest asset.

So when McCoy returns, he'll return as the starter, if for no other reason than to keep his trade value intact. Yes, I imagine the Eagles would trade him before they dropped him behind Brown on the depth chart, so as a keeper option, he's still about as safe as it gets.

But that's not even the most likely scenario. The most likely scenario is that Brown looks a little more human next time out and the Eagles decide to keep him in the backup role for the foreseeable future. He may cut into McCoy's carries a little more, but not enough to make McCoy any less than a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Which two of C.J Spiller, Ahmad Bradshaw and Knowshon Moreno should I start this week? -- @KingFinlay (via Twitter)

SW: Now that Moreno has seemingly captured the starting job in Denver with Willis McGahee done in by a torn ACL, my immediate reaction is that Bradshaw is suddenly the least valuable of the three.

But of course, Bradshaw stands to benefit from an injury as well. The biggest impediment to his value, cherry picker Andre Brown, is now out for the season with a broken fibula. That development potentially vaults Bradshaw back over Moreno and perhaps even Spiller, but only if rookie David Wilson doesn't seize this opportunity to make a name for himself. The Giants did invest a first-round pick in him back in April, after all, and coach Tom Coughlin, when announcing Brown's injury, mentioned Wilson as a replacement with the endorsement of "it's his time."

For now, I'm assuming Bradshaw gets the majority of the carries, which means he should be in for a productive Monday night at Washington. Given the uncertainty there, though, Spiller I think is still the safest of your three options. He's part of a split backfield as well, but it hasn't slowed him down. Against the 29th-ranked Jaguars run defense, he's automatic.

Moreno's value is certainly on the rise, but his opponent this week, Tampa Bay, ranks first against the run. Given the matchup, you might as well take a chance on Bradshaw instead.

Is it time to drop Ben Tate for Justin Forsett? Would Forsett be a better add than Knowshon Moreno, Jacquizz Rodgers, Beanie Wells or Kendall Hunter? -- Don Gerardi (via Facebook)

SW: The answer to the second question should be pretty obvious at this point. Moreno and Wells are the most worth owning of that group. They're the ones with starting jobs, after all, so before you try to figure out the best handcuff option for Arian Foster, you need to make sure those two both have homes in your league -- preferably on your roster.

Now, as for the backfield situation in Houston, I don't believe Forsett has overtaken Tate on the depth chart. I understand he ran for 87 yards on Thanksgiving, which is more than Tate has offered in any game this season, but keep in mind 81 of those yards came on a single carry. He had just 6 on the other four. Forsett is a fine change-of-pace option, but his small stature has limited him to nothing more than that role over his five-year career. I don't believe the Texans -- or any other team, for that matter -- view him as a potential starter at running back. Tate would be starting for a third of the teams in the league.

I think the Texans have everything they could want out of a backup in Tate. He just needs to get healthy -- and by all indications, he's about there. Forsett might still have some long runs after Tate returns, but if something happened to Foster, Tate would be the one to carry the load.

Incidentally, my third choice from this list (after Moreno and Wells) would be Rodgers. He split nearly 50-50 with Michael Turner last week and was clearly the more effective back of the two. I smell a change coming.

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Does Randall Cobb lose must-start status when Greg Jennings returns? -- @theonly1Avenger (via Twitter)

SW: You mean he hasn't already?

That's not fair. Week 12 was the first time he hadn't scored a touchdown in five games. But he has averaged just 44.5 receiving yards over his last four games, so maybe his four-catch, 39-yard effort Sunday was the reality check we all needed.

I think Cobb will still have a role when Jennings returns, presumably this week. His ability to make plays underneath helps the Packers make up for their lack of running game. Still, quarterback Aaron Rodgers can throw only so many passes, and with another mouth to feed in Jennings, the 40-yard games could become all the more common for Cobb, making him a touchdown-or-bust-type Fantasy option.

I'm not saying you should release the guy. In fact, in points-per-reception leagues, you'll still want him active more often than not. But in standard formats, you'll need to choose your spots with him. Against a Vikings defense that ranks in the middle of the pack against the pass and the run, you could certainly do worse than him this week.

Should I drop Mike Williams, Colin Kaepernick, Danario Alexander or Marcel Reece for Greg Jennings? -- @jayceex37 (via Twitter)

SW: No.

Oh, you want more than that? OK, fine. Williams is droppable for Jennings just for the sake of upside. And if you have your sights set on the playoffs rather than the next week or two, the same goes for Reece, who is sure to lose the starter role when Darren McFadden returns from a high ankle sprain.

But as for Kaepernick and Alexander, I think they have more to offer than Jennings at this point.

Alexander should be obvious by now. Each of his last four games are better than any of the three Jennings had before getting hurt. He's beginning to look like a must-start Fantasy option, not to mention must-own.

Kaepernick is trickier because he plays a different position and still isn't the definitive starter in San Francisco. But by now, coach Jim Harbaugh has pursued the possibility of a quarterback change to the point that he probably can't turn back anymore. It's happening soon, even if not in Week 13.

And when it happens, you'll have a rushing quarterback who throws the deep ball -- kind of like Cam Newton, but perhaps even more reliable.

What will you have in Jennings? Hard to say. Randall Cobb and James Jones have both stepped up in his absence, and of course Jordy Nelson is still in the picture as well. My guess is Jennings will still have his big games, but from week to week, he'll be about as up and down as James Jones, making him borderline rosterable in standard 10- and 12-team leagues. Frankly, I'd rather have Kaepernick, especially if I was less than satisfied with whoever I was starting at quarterback.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Facebook . You can also follow Scott via Twitter @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Report: Buccaneers bringing in Dan Connolly for a visit
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/30/2015) Former Patriots offensive guard Dan Connolly will visit the Buccaneers on Tuesday, per a report by Fox's Ross Jones, citing a source. 

Connolly has played in 87 games for the Patriots in the last seven years and hasn't played in fewer than 13 games in a season since 2008. 


Steelers RB DeAngelo WIlliams says signing was easy decision
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/30/2015) After playing his first nine seasons with the Panthers, running back DeAngelo Williams signed a two-year, $4 million contract with the Steelers this offseason. Among his many thoughts on the signing, he called it an easy decision, according to the Sporting News.

“I didn’t know they wanted me. I had never been on a visit before,” Williams said. “I was with the same organization for nine years. When I got the call and they said, 'hey we want to bring you in for a visit' I took it as that. Had they said we wanted to bring you in for a signing I would have had a different mindset. I had no idea what was going to transpire when I got here.”

Williams added that he is willing to do whatever it takes to get the team to the next level.

“It’s the opportunity to take maybe one or two reps or whatever it takes to make this team better,” Williams said. “That is what I will do. I want to make it to a Super Bowl and win it. I know this team has that potential and they can do it.

“Coming here was an easy decision. This is a Super Bowl contending team. Every veteran out there, veteran or rookie, they want to go to the Super Bowl and win it and get the best opportunity. I think the best opportunity is here in Pittsburgh.”

Williams has rushed for 6,846 yards on 1,432 carries with 46 rushing touchdowns in his career.


Lions WR Golden Tate doesn't feel pressure due to loss of Suh
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/30/2015) Although Lions wide receiver Golden Tate feels the loss of Ndamukong Suh is a blow to the team, he doesn't believe it puts more pressure on the offense, reports ESPN. 

When asked specifically about the subject, Tate was clear about his thoughts.

"No, I don't think it adds any pressure," Tate said by phone Monday. "We just need to be who we are. We know that we have a lot of weapons all over the field. We just need to reach our potential each and every week.

"We just need to go out there and play fundamentally sound football and I have no doubt our defense is going to be really good again this year and we just got to do our jobs. There's no pressure on anyone but to be ourselves and to play good football."

Additionally, Tate recognizes that Suh was a game-changing player for the Lions, but he likes the addition of Haloti Ngata.

"Obviously, losing Suh is a big hit," Tate said. "I don't care what team you are, he's the guy that can change the game. Change an opposing offense's game plan. He affects the game so much. But with that being said, I'm thankful to have [had] the opportunity to play with him for a year and be a part of something special. But the show must go on.

"The guy we got, [Haloti] Ngata, is a heck of a player. I think it's a good pickup for us. I know he has a past with coach Caldwell so he knows the ins and outs of the system, probably. But we're ready to move forward. We can't live in the past and football season must still go on. We're preparing to have a great year and build from last year."

The 26-year-old stated that he plans on focusing on the intricacies of the offensive playbook heading into this season.

"One thing I really want to focus on is learning the playbook a little bit better," Tate said. "I felt like I knew it for the most part, but details, running the plays exactly how Joe Lombardi draws them up, could help us win more games and create more opportunities for myself and our team."

Tate finished his first season with the Lions catching 99 passes for 1,331 yards and four touchdowns.


Report: LB Rolando McClain ends Patriots' visit without contract
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/30/2015) After visiting the Patriots on Monday, linebacker Rolando McClain and the team did not agree to terms on a contract, according to NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport. The same report states that the visit was a positive one.

McClain played in 13 games last season for the Cowboys, collecting 81 total tackles and one sack. Over his four-year career, the 25-year-old has accumulated 327 total tackles, 7.5 sacks, 23 passes defensed, three interceptions and two forced fumbles.


Cardinals S Tyrann Mathieu looks forward to being healthy
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/30/2015) Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu believes that he is regaining his health and he's ready to make an impact this season, according to the team's website.

“It’s been a long time since I’ve been healthy,” Mathieu said Monday. “Last year I felt like I took a back seat. I played well my rookie year and then last year it was kind of, eh, I was there but I wasn’t there. This (year) is more important for me because I really want to let everyone know I’m back and I can still make some plays.”

Mathieu tore his ACL and LCL toward the end of the 2013 season. He recently said that the comeback was "way harder than I thought."

Head coach Bruce Arians talked about how Mathieu was not himself last season.

“You saw him fight through it last year,” Arians said. “He was not the player he was used to (being) and it was very frustrating for him.”

Mathieu was aware of the chatter from the outside world and he is using that as motivation going forward.

“You hear people talk and I had time to listen to them talk, so it’s like … I hear it,” Mathieu said. “Like I said, I didn’t feel like I made enough plays last year to help our team. I am looking forward to this year because I know I can do it.”

The 22-year-old has registered 106 total tackles, one sack, three interceptions and one forced fumble in 26 games played during his two-year career.


Saints plan to rework Jahri Evans, Cameron Jordan contracts
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/30/2015) Saints coach Sean Payton said that the team has a plan in place to rework guard Jahri Evans' contract to help create salary cap space, per ESPN's Mike Triplett

Evans is scheduled to make $6.8 million salary in 2015 and cost $11 million against the cap. 

The team might also extend defensive end Cameron Jordan's contract. Jordan is entering the last year of his contract and is scheduled to make $6.969 million this year.


Rams have agreed to terms with OL Tim Barnes
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/30/2015) The Rams have agreed to terms with offensive lineman Tim Barnes, reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The one-year deal has a maximum value of $1 million. 

Barnes recently visited had a visit with the Chiefs before signing with the Rams. The 26-year-old spent all three of his previous seasons with the Rams, starting four of the 45 games he appeared in.


Report: Brandon Tate visits Chiefs
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/30/2015) Free agent wide receiver/kick returner Brandon Tate visited the Chiefs on Monday, according to a report from the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, citing a source.

Tate had 17 catches for 193 yards and a touchdown for the Bengals last year. He also had a combined 571 yards in kick and punt returns. 


Lions' Riley Reiff open to playing right tackle
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/30/2015) Lions coach Jim Caldwell said that Riley Reiff might start at right tackle next season. 

Reiff has started 32 games at left tackle over the last two seasons. The Lions aren't sure that last year's right tackle LaAdrian Waddle will be fully recovered from knee surgery, and backup tackle Cornelius Lucas is better on the left side. 

Reiff told the Daily Republic he doesn't care where he plays. 

 "I like playing, and wherever they want to put me, that's fine. I'll play," he said.


Broncos OL Michael Schofield looking to compete for starting job
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/30/2015) Broncos offensive lineman Michael Schofield is ready to come in and compete for a starting job this season, reports the Denver Post.

After not dressing for a single game as a rookie, Schofield added weight and he looks forward to fighting for a starting job.

"I am going in there with that mentality. In the NFL everybody is competing," Schofield said during a road trip to see family in Illinois. "They are looking for someone to step up and take over. I want to make that jump."

The third-round draft pick of the Broncos in 2014 struggled with weight issues, but he is now up to 305 pounds. He also recognized that his pass protection needs improvement.

"Personally, I felt there were reasons I wasn't out there (for games). I wasn't consistent enough in pass pro (protection). And my weight was really fluctuating," Schofield said.

Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak believes that the team's zone-blocking scheme can help Schofield elevate his game, and Schofield agrees.

"We like the Schofield kid, so we'll see. We think he's got some flexibility (in where he can play)," Kubiak said. "It will be very competitive."

"I feel like I am better suited for this," Schofield said. "You have to be able to reach block, and I feel the steps required fit me better."


 
 
 
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