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Dear Mr. Fantasy: No time for complacency

Senior Fantasy Writer
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So ... you ready for the playoffs?

I don't mean, like, emotionally. I mean intellectually. Have you put in the time to prepare yourself for a win-or-go-home scenario?

If you're still fighting for a playoff spot, you get a pass. Your energies belong elsewhere. Chances are playoff preparations would subvert your short-term goals anyway.

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But if you've already clinched a playoff spot, now is the time to act, before someone else beats you to it. Scope out Weeks 15 and 16. See what needs you might have at that point.

Waiting around until the Wednesday before could be what ends your season.

I've made the playoffs. What's the No. 1 thing to do now? Add depth? -- @CT_FOX (via Twitter)

SW: Wait, you mean you don't just plan to go on autopilot and assume all that win-loss stuff will take care of itself? OK, Mr. Overachiever.

Assuming the trade deadline has passed in your league -- and if not, what's up with that? -- I don't see how you have any choice but to add depth. You have to be smart about it, of course. If you've already clinched, chances are you have a lineup full of studs such as Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin -- players who you wouldn't consider sitting except because of injury -- meaning the kind of depth you should pursue is their handcuff options, such as Toby Gerhart and LeGarrette Blount. What good is gambling on a David Wilson if he has no legitimate chance of sniffing your lineup?

If, however, you have a starting spot that isn't quite as settled -- maybe you've been shuffling between Ryan Mathews and Michael Turner or have had to make do with Marcel Reece -- then you're more likely to benefit from a risk-reward type like Wilson. Jackie Battle isn't any kind of remedy for poor production.

You could also stand to benefit from looking ahead to Weeks 15 and 16 (or whenever your particular league conducts its playoffs). Knowing Beanie Wells is facing the Jets' 30th-ranked run defense this week is a great help for right now, but you don't so much care about right now. You care about Week 16, when he's facing the Bears' eighth-ranked run defense.

True, Wells is a borderline case. You probably wouldn't sit Peterson in Week 16 just because he's facing the Texans' second-ranked run defense. But at some position on your roster, even if it's just DST, you'll want to be prepared for when the matchups go bad. The playoffs are no time to cross your fingers and hope for the best.

Danario Alexander or Malcom Floyd at wide receiver this week? -- @Oh_Dinky (via Twitter)

SW: Philip Rivers just hasn't taken to Floyd the way I thought he would at the start of the season. Yeah, Floyd has put up some Fantasy points lately with three touchdowns in his last four games, but to have only two games with more than 70 yards all season? Sorry, but I expected more. You'd think with Vincent Jackson out of town and Antonio Gates a shell of his former self, Rivers would have no choice but to lean on Floyd, but he hasn't.

So who has he leaned on? Over the last three weeks, it's been Danario Alexander, who already has three games with 70-plus receiving yards even though he's only been active for five. Before then, it was ... Ronnie Brown, maybe? I'd venture to say no one. In his first eight games, otherwise known as pre-Alexander era, Rivers averaged 233.3 passing yards 1.5 touchdown passes. In his last three, with Alexander unhinged, he's averaged 274.3 with 2.0 touchdown passes.

In other words, you don't have to make the decision because Rivers has already made it for you: He would rather fail than throw the ball to Floyd.

OK, so he still throws the ball to Floyd plenty. The targets kind of speak for themselves there. Still, by now, you have to recognize that Alexander is capable of doing more with those throws than Floyd is. The Chargers recognized it from the first time he saw extensive action in Week 9. Just think back to what coach Norv Turner had to say about the Rams castoff back before all this mess started Week 10 at Tampa Bay:

"Danario's going to play," Turner told the San Diego Union-Tribune. "He's going to be a big part of what we do."

And don't you forget it.

Truth be told, I can't say whether or not Floyd will catch another touchdown pass Week 13 against the Bengals. It's plenty possible. But I can say with unwavering assurance that Alexander is the more consistent of Chargers wide receivers and the one with the higher upside.

I need to win to make playoffs in a points-per-reception league. Would you pick up Ryan Broyles or T.Y. Hilton to play over Steve Smith or Percy Harvin? -- @Westernsubs (via Twitter)

SW: I love Broyles. Let's get that out there right now. After that six-catch, 126-yard effort he put together on Thanksgiving, I'd carve a heart with his name in it into a tree if I could -- which is a total lie because, well, what's stopping me?

Why am I so found of him? Hey, I was the same way with Titus Young when Nate Burleson went down with a broken leg back in Week 7, and Young delivered similar results with nine catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns Week 8 against the Seahawks. The reason he couldn't keep it up is because a little guy named Broyles kept getting in his way -- and because, you know, he kept putting himself before the team, which is what got him suspended last week, which is what allowed Broyles to put up those numbers.

So let me ask you this: With Young now out of the picture, who's left to get in Broyles' way? Tony Scheffler?

When the Lions eventually settle on a second wide receiver opposite Calvin Johnson, that wide receiver is predisposed to big numbers. The Lions as a whole are predisposed to big numbers. They like to pass, and with Matthew Stafford under center, they do a pretty good job of it. No, he hasn't had the best season Fantasy-wise, but he still leads the NFL with 3,429 passing yards. They can't all be going to Calvin Johnson. Free up a few cooks in that kitchen, and you'll really see a meal made.

Now, Young isn't off the team or anything. The Lions could always reinstate him for Week 13 against the Colts, but I think they'll have a pretty easy time justifying the transition to Broyles after the way that whole episode went down.

OK, now that I've made my feelings on Broyles perfectly clear, we can tackle the question at hand: Would I start him over Smith or Harvin?

Probably not Harvin, provided he's healthy. His role as sort of a split-wide running back makes him too productive to sit in points-per-reception leagues. But since I don't necessarily expect this week to be the week he returns from a sprained ankle, yes, I would anticipate starting Broyles instead.

And if it comes to it, I'd also start Broyles over Smith, who even in Cam Newton's best game of the season Monday, managed just four catches for 60 yards. He's become mostly a deep-ball threat on an offense that hasn't had much success with the deep ball this season. Newton doesn't have enough completions in him to sustain Smith along with Brandon LaFell and Greg Olsen.

Most Traded Players (as of 11/28)
Player # of trades
1. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams 1,236
2. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions 1,219
3. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers 1,208
4. Andrew Luck, QB, Colts 1,207
5. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots 1,197
6. Josh Freeman, QB, Buccaneers 1,173
7. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs 1,159
8. Carson Palmer, QB, Raiders 1,141
9. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons 1,136
10. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals 1,122

As for Hilton, he has some big-game potential, but he's in a kitchen with too many cooks himself. And the Colts' passing game isn't quite as productive as the Lions'.

Given Bryce Brown's performance Monday night, how worried do I need to be about LeSean McCoy losing his job? I have him in multiple keeper leagues. -- @liefmeyer (via Twitter)

SW: Brown unseating McCoy is a possibility worth pondering, but ultimately, it won't happen. With all of Michael Vick's struggles over the last couple years, McCoy has essentially been the Eagles offense, and his contributions in that role have made him a Fantasy stud. He scored 20 touchdowns last year, for crying out loud. I don't see how they could abandon him so quickly.

Of course, he wouldn't be the first high-profile running back to lose his job seemingly through no fault of his own, right in the thick of his prime. Shoot, if he played for the Bills, he'd just be the latest in a long line of early removals, from Willis McGahee in 2007 to Marshawn Lynch in 2009 to Fred Jackson just this year.

But for as good as McGahee, Lynch and Jackson were, they weren't McCoy. None was a top-three pick in Fantasy. None was on pace for a third straight 1,500-yard season at the time of his removal.

The Eagles like Brown, and his performance Monday will likely make them extra cautious in their treatment of McCoy's concussion. But now that they've fallen out of the playoff race, they don't stand to gain anything by transitioning to Brown now. Even if they think he's the better running back (which is still very much in question), all they do by benching McCoy is deplete the value of their greatest asset.

So when McCoy returns, he'll return as the starter, if for no other reason than to keep his trade value intact. Yes, I imagine the Eagles would trade him before they dropped him behind Brown on the depth chart, so as a keeper option, he's still about as safe as it gets.

But that's not even the most likely scenario. The most likely scenario is that Brown looks a little more human next time out and the Eagles decide to keep him in the backup role for the foreseeable future. He may cut into McCoy's carries a little more, but not enough to make McCoy any less than a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Which two of C.J Spiller, Ahmad Bradshaw and Knowshon Moreno should I start this week? -- @KingFinlay (via Twitter)

SW: Now that Moreno has seemingly captured the starting job in Denver with Willis McGahee done in by a torn ACL, my immediate reaction is that Bradshaw is suddenly the least valuable of the three.

But of course, Bradshaw stands to benefit from an injury as well. The biggest impediment to his value, cherry picker Andre Brown, is now out for the season with a broken fibula. That development potentially vaults Bradshaw back over Moreno and perhaps even Spiller, but only if rookie David Wilson doesn't seize this opportunity to make a name for himself. The Giants did invest a first-round pick in him back in April, after all, and coach Tom Coughlin, when announcing Brown's injury, mentioned Wilson as a replacement with the endorsement of "it's his time."

For now, I'm assuming Bradshaw gets the majority of the carries, which means he should be in for a productive Monday night at Washington. Given the uncertainty there, though, Spiller I think is still the safest of your three options. He's part of a split backfield as well, but it hasn't slowed him down. Against the 29th-ranked Jaguars run defense, he's automatic.

Moreno's value is certainly on the rise, but his opponent this week, Tampa Bay, ranks first against the run. Given the matchup, you might as well take a chance on Bradshaw instead.

Is it time to drop Ben Tate for Justin Forsett? Would Forsett be a better add than Knowshon Moreno, Jacquizz Rodgers, Beanie Wells or Kendall Hunter? -- Don Gerardi (via Facebook)

SW: The answer to the second question should be pretty obvious at this point. Moreno and Wells are the most worth owning of that group. They're the ones with starting jobs, after all, so before you try to figure out the best handcuff option for Arian Foster, you need to make sure those two both have homes in your league -- preferably on your roster.

Now, as for the backfield situation in Houston, I don't believe Forsett has overtaken Tate on the depth chart. I understand he ran for 87 yards on Thanksgiving, which is more than Tate has offered in any game this season, but keep in mind 81 of those yards came on a single carry. He had just 6 on the other four. Forsett is a fine change-of-pace option, but his small stature has limited him to nothing more than that role over his five-year career. I don't believe the Texans -- or any other team, for that matter -- view him as a potential starter at running back. Tate would be starting for a third of the teams in the league.

I think the Texans have everything they could want out of a backup in Tate. He just needs to get healthy -- and by all indications, he's about there. Forsett might still have some long runs after Tate returns, but if something happened to Foster, Tate would be the one to carry the load.

Incidentally, my third choice from this list (after Moreno and Wells) would be Rodgers. He split nearly 50-50 with Michael Turner last week and was clearly the more effective back of the two. I smell a change coming.

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Does Randall Cobb lose must-start status when Greg Jennings returns? -- @theonly1Avenger (via Twitter)

SW: You mean he hasn't already?

That's not fair. Week 12 was the first time he hadn't scored a touchdown in five games. But he has averaged just 44.5 receiving yards over his last four games, so maybe his four-catch, 39-yard effort Sunday was the reality check we all needed.

I think Cobb will still have a role when Jennings returns, presumably this week. His ability to make plays underneath helps the Packers make up for their lack of running game. Still, quarterback Aaron Rodgers can throw only so many passes, and with another mouth to feed in Jennings, the 40-yard games could become all the more common for Cobb, making him a touchdown-or-bust-type Fantasy option.

I'm not saying you should release the guy. In fact, in points-per-reception leagues, you'll still want him active more often than not. But in standard formats, you'll need to choose your spots with him. Against a Vikings defense that ranks in the middle of the pack against the pass and the run, you could certainly do worse than him this week.

Should I drop Mike Williams, Colin Kaepernick, Danario Alexander or Marcel Reece for Greg Jennings? -- @jayceex37 (via Twitter)

SW: No.

Oh, you want more than that? OK, fine. Williams is droppable for Jennings just for the sake of upside. And if you have your sights set on the playoffs rather than the next week or two, the same goes for Reece, who is sure to lose the starter role when Darren McFadden returns from a high ankle sprain.

But as for Kaepernick and Alexander, I think they have more to offer than Jennings at this point.

Alexander should be obvious by now. Each of his last four games are better than any of the three Jennings had before getting hurt. He's beginning to look like a must-start Fantasy option, not to mention must-own.

Kaepernick is trickier because he plays a different position and still isn't the definitive starter in San Francisco. But by now, coach Jim Harbaugh has pursued the possibility of a quarterback change to the point that he probably can't turn back anymore. It's happening soon, even if not in Week 13.

And when it happens, you'll have a rushing quarterback who throws the deep ball -- kind of like Cam Newton, but perhaps even more reliable.

What will you have in Jennings? Hard to say. Randall Cobb and James Jones have both stepped up in his absence, and of course Jordy Nelson is still in the picture as well. My guess is Jennings will still have his big games, but from week to week, he'll be about as up and down as James Jones, making him borderline rosterable in standard 10- and 12-team leagues. Frankly, I'd rather have Kaepernick, especially if I was less than satisfied with whoever I was starting at quarterback.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Facebook . You can also follow Scott via Twitter @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Raiders bring back Kaelin Burnett
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) The Raiders have inked exclusive-rights free agent Kaelin Burnett to a one-year deal. He's expected to compete for a roster spot in training camp. 

Dekoda Watson moving to strong-side LB
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) In the wake of the release of veteran linebacker Russell Allen, the Jaguars are expected to make Dekoda Watson their new starting strong-side linebacker, ESPN reports. He'll also play as a pass rusher and potentially line up as a defensive end on third downs. 

Watson had 42 total tackles, two sacks, an interception, a pass defensed, a forced fumble and a blocked punt with the Bucs last year. 


Brandon Gibson begins light jobbing
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) Brandon Gibson has begun light jogging as he works his way back from a torn patellar tendon, the Miami Herald reports. The Dolphins are expected to keep him on the roster, if only because of the cap hit he'll cost, per the report. He said recently he expects to be ready for Week 1. 

'Humbled' Richardson explains 2013, promises a better 2014
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) Colts running back Trent Richardson spoke openly about his disappointing 2013 season, saying that it took him too long to learn a new playbook and get over leaving Cleveland after Week 2. Richardson also told the official team website that he's planning to do everything within his power to be as prepared as possible for 2014. 

"Y'all will see a big significant difference in the way I play, the speed. I won't have to think about a lot of stuff," Richardson said earlier this offseason. "It's going to be big -- timing with the offensive line, timing with Andrew (Luck), just knowing a lot more with the program, the whole system.

"They haven't seen everything they're going to get out of me yet. A lot of it is going to come next year. A lot of it is going to come in the offseason. I'm going to put in a lot of work, as I've been doing this whole season. This season humbled me. ... This season was a lesson to me."

Colts coach Chuck Pagano has had Richardson's back, says the running back, and the coach stressed back in March that his running back's involvement in the offseason program will be key. 

"It's going to be very, very important for (Richardson) to be here for the offseason program and to dive into this thing full steam ahead, which he will," Pagano said. "He wants to be great. He's got all the talent. He's got all the ability. We would have never done what we did if we didn't believe that deep down in our core. So we look for him to have a great offseason and to have a great 2014 campaign."


Saints bring back Robert Meachem
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) The Saints announced Friday that the club has re-signed veteran free agent wide receiver Robert Meachem to a one-year contract.

Meachem is a seven-year NFL veteran who was originally the club's first round draft pick (27th overall) in 2007. He re-signed with the Saints prior to the start of the 2013 regular season and appeared in 15 games with five starts. He finished with 16 receptions for 324 yards with two touchdowns.

Meachem said signing with the Saints now should help with his preparations as he will be able to take part in the team's offseason conditioning program, OTAs and mini-camp. Plus, "this is home," he said.


Can Chris Johnson turn into Tomlinson?
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) The Jets are hoping running back Chris Johnson can do for them what LaDainian Tomlinson did in 2010, reports ESPN.

That season, Tomlinson came from San Diego to New York after he was released. He responded with a team-high 914 yards with six touchdowns on 219 carries and caught 52 passes. He was supposed to be Shonn Greene's backup, but Tomlinson was so impressive that he won the starting job and became an integral part of a team that came within one game of the Super Bowl.

Maybe Johnson, who was let go by the Titans, can do the same thing.

"I can turn the bad things people are saying into a good thing for me, to give me motivation, to keep me hungry and to keep a chip on my shoulder and prove the naysayers wrong," he said Thursday.

Johnson had a disappointing year in 2013 when he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, but he played 13 games on a torn meniscus and was running behind a suspect offensive line for a team that didn't have its starting quarterback for half the season. The situation in New York should be improved, and hopefully being teamed with Chris Ivory will allow him to play like Tomlinson did in 2010.


Aikman worried about Tony Romo
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) Former Cowboys quarterback and Hall of Famer Troy Aikman is worried about current Dallas quarterback Tony Romo coming off back surgery, reports the team's official website.

Romo, 34, is coming off back surgery in December, which was the second procedure on his back in a year.

"I came back in a relatively short period of time because of when I had my surgery, so he's at least afforded more time to get ready," Aikman said. "But having said that, two back surgeries in less than a year at his age, I would be a bit concerned.

"I'm hopeful that he's able to come back -- everybody is. This team won't be the same if he's not able to. I anticipate that he will come back. But to say that, 'Hey, he's ahead of schedule and everything's going fine,' I'm not sure how you can really measure that here in April."


Bengals, A.J. Green not talking extension - yet
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) The Bengals are expected to exercise the fifth-year option on receiver A.J. Green's contract by May 3, reports Pro Football Talk. But the sides have yet to discuss a long-term contract extension, according to the report.

The Bengals hold the rights to Green through the 2015 season. And in 2016, if a long-term deal hasn't been signed yet, the Bengals can use the franchise tag on Green for that season.

The report says Green can force the issue by trying to boycott offseason workouts or hold out from training camp. But Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is confident Green will be there.


Chris Snee will give it a shot this spring
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) Giants guard Chris Snee will attempt to go through the Giants offseason program once he's healthy, the New York Daily News reports. Snee had hip surgery last season and an elbow surgery earlier this year. There is no timeline for him to be at 100 percent but he is expected to be on the field for the "bulk" of offseason activities. 

Report: Niners won't release Aldon Smith
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4/18/2014) The 49ers might expect a suspension for pass rushing linebacker Aldon Smith, but they are not planning to release him, NFL Network reported on Friday.

Smith was arrested recently for making false bomb reports at a Los Angeles airport, the latest of a string of troubles for the highly talented linebacker. He was also arrested for suspicion of DUI in January, 2012 and again September, 2013. He also had marijuana on him during that September arrest. In October, 2013 he was charged with three felony counts of illegal possession of an assault weapon. 


 
 
 
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