Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
Play Fantasy Use your Fantasy skills to win Cash Prizes. Join or start a league today. Play Now
      
Fantasy Football Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Gameday Inactives
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

Tricks of the trends after Week 15

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Here is a deep dive behind some of the key statistics (targets, red zone and goal line) for Fantasy Football success to help give you a little edge in your weekly quest for victory.

Targets

• If you made it this far with Brandon Lloyd on your roster, you did it without any of his help. Now that the playoffs are here, Lloyd is showing up and all of a sudden you have a new starting wide receiver just in the nick of time. To understand just how shocking his recent success has been, check out the following. In the eight games prior to Week 14, Lloyd had been targeted 49 times and produced 25 catches for 274 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, those are eight-game totals, which equate roughly 3.1 catches for 34.25 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game. Well, in the last two games alone, Lloyd has been targeted 25 times and has 17 catches for 279 yards and a touchdown! He has more receiving yards in the last two games than in the previous eight combined and saw his yards per target jump from 5.6 to 11.16! Lloyd has shown up at just the right time and looks worthy of a start once again in Week 16.

Check out our Fantasy Football podcast!
There is no better source for entertaining Fantasy advice than our Fantasy Football Today podcast. Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Adam Aizer will help you pass the time as you anticipate Draft Day 2014!
Latest episode | Subscribe today!

• Anyone who had Big Daddy Cool Cecil Shorts on their teams sure was excited to get him back in Week 15, as he hauled in six of his 11 targets for 101 yards. That marked the fifth straight game of 10 or more points for Shorts, who has hit double-digits in seven of his eight games as a starter for the Jaguars. In fact, despite missing Week 14 with a concussion, Shorts is the No. 7 Fantasy wide receiver since becoming a starter for the Jags in Week 7. In those eight games, he has caught 41 passes for 720 yards and five touchdowns, which is a 16-game pace of 82 for 1,440 yards and 10 scores. That is some elite production from Shorts, who has 100 yards in four games and has found the end zone in five of the eight games, including four of the last five. Shorts is averaging a healthy 9.3 targets per game and is producing 90 yards (9.7 yards per target) and 0.63 touchdowns per game, which translates to 12.75 points per week.

• Entering Week 15, Danario Alexander was the third ranked Fantasy receiver from Week 10 on and was averaging six catches for 99 yards and a touchdown per game. Then in critical Week 15, Alexander caught as many passes as you or me. He was targeted a season-low three times and failed to produce a single catch despite the fact that the Chargers were blown out by the Panthers. With Antonio Cromartie and the Jets on tap in Week 16, Alexander could struggle once again. After all, Cromartie just held the red-hot Kenny Britt to one catch for seven yards on Monday Night Football and has given up a grand total of 20 Fantasy points to eight of the last nine receivers he has faced. Alexander could struggle once again in Week 16 and if you survived his Week 15 face-plant, you might want to look elsewhere for a starting receiver for your team.

• Last week I talked about the fact that Michael Crabtree had twice as many catches (16) as any other San Francisco pass catcher had targets in Weeks 13 and 14. Well in Week 15, Crabtree was once again the main man for Colin Kaepernick against the Patriots. He was targeted 12 times (no other 49er had more than four targets) and caught seven passes for 107 yards and two touchdowns in his best Fantasy day of the year. Over the last three weeks, Crabtree has at least 11 targets, seven catches and 93 yards in every single game. During that span, he is fourth in the league with 34 targets, 23 catches, 301 yards and is tied for fifth with two touchdowns. He has now produced at least nine Fantasy points in four of the five games with Kap under center and should take advantage of a Seahawks defense that will be without both starting cornerbacks in Week 16. Keep in mind that Kap has tunnel vision for Crabtree right now (34 targets and no other 49er receiver has more than 11) and that is always a good thing for Fantasy production.

Danny Amendola finally got back on the field in Week 15 and that was a welcome sight for Sam Bradford and Amendola's Fantasy owners. In his return to action, Amendola was targeted 12 times and caught six passes for 58 yards and a touchdown. He also added a two-point conversion for a solid Fantasy day of 13 points. In his last three full games, Amendola has been targeted at least 11 times every time out and has a total of 35 targets, 24 catches, 201 yards and a touchdown. Obviously I prefer Amendola in PPR leagues, where he is averaging a very solid 17.3 points per game, but he has hit 10 or more in two of his last three in standard leagues as well. With the horrendous Buccaneers pass defense on tap in Week 16, look for Amendola to put up another solid week when you need it the most.

Reggie Wayne is slowing down at the worst possible time for Fantasy owners and the once steady producer from the beginning and middle of the season seems to be gone. In the first 11 games of the 2012 season, Wayne never had fewer than five catches or 72 receiving yards in any single game. Over the last three weeks however, Wayne has not even hit the 65-yard mark in any game and has been held to fewer than five catches twice. His targets have fallen some, but he is still averaging nine targets per game, so that is not the full story. The real problem is that Wayne's efficiency has gotten worse from the mediocre levels of the heavily targeted early portion of the season and you have to wonder if the elderstatesman of the Colts is hitting the proverbial wall. In the first 11 games, Wayne caught just 58 percent of his targets and averaged 7.7 yards per target, but his numbers remained great due in large part to averaging 13 targets per game. Over the last three weeks, Wayne is catching only 48 percent of his targets and is averaging a horrendous 4.8 yards per target. Those are dreadful figures and the drop to nine targets per game is only exacerbating the problem. He should find success against the Chiefs in Week 16, but he is far from the must start that he was early in the year.

• Just because I want to see Julio Jones get superstar level targets, I will point out once again that he needs more targets. Jones caught all six of his targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 15. He has four touchdowns in his last four games and is averaging 1.45 Fantasy points per target, seventh best in the NFL this year. All I want for him is 10 targets per game and if Jones ever gets there, he will challenge for the top Fantasy receiver spot alongside guys like Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green.

Antonio Brown is back at just the right time and has even figured out how to score touchdowns, which has made him a solid Fantasy receiver for the suddenly pass-happy Steelers. In his three games back from injury, Brown has been targeted 31 times and has 17 catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns. The numbers do not blow you away, but he has a touchdown (and 10 Fantasy points) in back to back games and his Fantasy points have increased every single week. The Steelers are airing the ball out a ton and you could do worse for your third receiver then a talented guy like Antonio Brown, who is seeing 10 targets per game this late in the season.

Marques Colston is making me nervous and the reason is a complete lack of targets. It really has been a tale of two seasons for Colston, who averaged 10 targets, 5.8 catches, 83 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game over the first seven games of the year. In the last seven, Colston has almost become invisible to quarterback Drew Brees, which has clearly been bad for his production. In the last seven games, Colston is averaging just 5.6 targets, four catches, 52.7 yards and 0.42 touchdowns per game. He has lost 45 percent of his target volume and that is putting tremendous pressure on his production, because it doesn't even matter that he is ridiculously efficient. Over the last two weeks for example, Colston has caught all seven of his targets for 121 yards, which is an absurd 17.2 yards per target. It doesn't even matter, though, because with so few targets and no touchdowns in his last three games, Colston has just 19 Fantasy points total. Hopefully you have survived this drought from Colston and Brees helps Colston get back to the 10 target per game level before the Fantasy season is over.

Aaron Hernandez is absolutely on fire the last three weeks, catching 26 of his 43 targets (yes that is 14.3 targets per game for a tight end) for 247 yards and three touchdowns. Hernandez has at least eight catches in every game and is averaging just under nine catches for 82.3 yards and a touchdown per game. Last week, he led the NFL with 19 targets and it is clear that Hernandez has been the go to guy for Tom Brady down the stretch with Rob Gronkowski out. He has back-to-back games with at least 15 Fantasy points, so hopefully he can help bring you home a Fantasy title.

Dennis Pitta'd the fool who had to play against him the last two weeks with banner performances when they counted the most. Pitta was a top waiver pickup prior to Week 14 because he was going to face the two defenses that were the worst against the tight end position -- Washington and Denver -- in his next two games. Well, Pitta took advantage of those matchups, notching five catches for 46 yards and a touchdown against the 'Skins on just six targets. He followed that up with a career game against the Broncos, as Pitta hauled in seven of his 10 targets for 125 yards and two scores. Pitta has now scored in four of his last six games, with the only exceptions being the two games against the tough Steelers pass defense. This week, Pitta will face the Giants, who just surrendered a touchdown to Tony Gonzalez, and he will hope to keep his touchdown streak alive. Even with the two duds, Pitta is averaging an amazing 1.8 Fantasy points per target over the last six weeks and is as efficient as any player at the position right now.

Steven Jackson has been a late season stud for many Fantasy owners and it has not been just because of his rushing totals alone. In fact, Jackson has been rediscovered in the Rams' passing game over the last three weeks and it has paid great dividends. Jackson actually leads all running backs with 14 catches and 151 yards receiving over the last three weeks, which is pretty amazing when you consider that he had 16 catches for 129 yards in the first 11 games of the year combined. It is a great trend for Fantasy owners, who should see Jackson have continued success in Week 16 against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed running backs to average six catches and 42 yards receiving per game.

Target Leaders by position for Week 15: Wide receiver: Calvin Johnson (17), Brandon Lloyd (16), Andre Johnson (13), Antonio Brown (12), Vincent Jackson (12), Pierre Garcon (12), Steve Johnson (12), Michael Crabtree (12) and Danny Amendola (12); Tight end: Aaron Hernandez (19), Dallas Clark (12) and Dennis Pitta (10); Running back: Danny Woodhead (10), Steven Jackson (10), Matt Forte (8), Darren Sproles (8)

Red Zone

Tony Romo has been terrible in the red zone, with only 10 touchdown passes on 65 attempts. That is a 15.3 percent red zone-scoring rate (I wonder if he misses 2011 Laurent "Red Zone" Robinson), which is the worst figure among the 20 busiest quarterbacks inside of the opponent's 20-yard line. Fortunately for his Fantasy owners, Romo has been killing it outside of the red zone. Romo has 12 passing touchdowns of 21 yards or more this year, second only to Aaron Rodgers' 13 bombs. It is interesting to note as well that Cam Newton, like Romo, has more passing scores of 21 or more yards (10) than he does in the red zone (eight).

• Of the 55 running backs who have taken at least 10 red zone carries this year, let's take a look at the five best and worst touchdown scorers so far in 2012. The five best in terms of touchdown percentage on their carries inside the 20-yard line are: Andre Brown (42 percent), Mikel Leshoure (31), Beanie Wells (31), Fred Jackson (30) and DeMarco Murray (29). On the other side of things, the five worst red zone scorers have been Curtis Brinkley (zero percent), Alex Green (zero), Darren McFadden (four), Jamaal Charles (five) and Vick Ballard (five).

Trent Richardson is third in the NFL with nine red zone rushing scores and I love the way that the Browns feed him the ball in scoring situations. Richardson has 40 red zone carries while quarterback Brandon Weeden has 49 red zone pass attempts and I think the Browns would be wise to hand it off even more to their talented back whenever they get near the goal line. After all, Weeden has thrown for just six red zone touchdowns, so the Browns have a significantly better chance of scoring (22.5 percent vs. 12.2 percent) when they just hand the ball off.

• If you need another reason to be excited about T.Y. Hilton for the 2013 season, I think you can find it in the red zone stats. We all know he is a big-time deep threat, but Hilton is also showing that he can get the job done inside the 20-yard line as well. Over the last four weeks, Hilton has turned both of his red zone targets into scores and I am telling you right now, this kid will be a star next year.

• One of the big reasons that Owen Daniels has slowed down of late is his current struggle in scoring situations. Over the last five weeks, Daniels has scored only one of his six red zone targets. Prior to Week 11, Daniels had converted three of his four red zone targets into touchdowns. I like the workload increase that he has seen of late, but with sketchy yardage totals, he needs to be more efficient in scoring situations.

Goal Line

Michael Turner has a league high 10 goal line carries and five goal line touchdowns over the last five weeks. Those scores have been saving his Fantasy value, but the good news is that with the Falcons offense generating plenty of opportunities for the big fella, they do not seem to be going away any time soon.

• Over the last five weeks, Matt Forte is the only running back with three or more goal line chances who has failed to score. The good news is that Forte should continue to get chances with Michael Bush, but the bad news is that Forte has been the worst goal line back in the NFL over the last three years. Hopefully he can fix that for you in Week 16 against Arizona and punch in a touchdown.

Beanie Wells has scored three goal line rushing scores over the last four weeks and has five total touchdowns during that span. He scored all five of them at home and has the chance to notch another one against the Bears in Week 16. If he does not score, we are likely looking at a two or three point day from Wells, but the Bears have allowed three rushing scores in their last three games, so I'm saying there is a chance.

Aaron Hernandez is filling the Gronkowksi role at the goal line nicely for Tom Brady. Over the last two weeks alone, Hernandez has been targeted three times inside of the opponent's five-yard line and has produced two short scores. Look for him to remain on fire the rest of the year.

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Coach confident DeMarco Murray will fix fumbling issue
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(11:13 am ET) Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray is off to a great start in 2014. He's rushed for more than 100 yards and has a rushing touchdown in each of the first three games.

However, it hasn't been all positives for Murray, who has also lost a fumble in each game this season.

"It’s very disappointing," Murray said of his fumbling issues, per ESPN. "I’m very disappointed in letting that one go. I’ve got to get it fixed and I will get it fixed."

Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has the utmost confidence in Murray correcting his fumbling problems.

"We’re going to continue to give him the ball and he’s got to get it right," Garrett said. "He’s going to get it right."


How will the Chargers replace Danny Woodhead?
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(11:09 am ET) With do-everything running back Danny Woodhead reportedly out for an extensive period of time, the Chargers find themselves looking to plug some major holes in the backfield. Though Donald Brown did a serviceable Ryan Mathews impression while carrying a truly massive load in Week 3 against the Bills, Woodhead's absence leaves the team searching for another dimension.

Among the players on the depth chart, neither Brown nor reserve Branden Oliver seems likely to replicate Woodhead's skillset -- few players in the NFL can. Brown's career-high in receptions came a year ago, when he hauled in 27 passes for the Colts -- that's about four good games of work from Woodhead. Oiliver is likely to see a larger role than the three carries he received in Week 3, and he might be the nearest thing the team has to what Woodhead leaves behind. 

Oliver had just 25 receptions as a senior at the University of Buffalo, but was a much more productive receiver earlier in his career. He hauled in 38 passes for 365 yards as a sophomore in 2011, good for third on the team in both categories, so he has some skills as a receiver.

With just three carries and no receptions under his belt in his NFL career, Oliver is very much an unknown quantity at this point. You won't want to rush out and add him this week, but keep an eye on how the team utilizes him in Week 4 against the Jaguars, a matchup which could get him plenty of work.  


Cecil Shorts plays every snap in return from injury
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(11:06 am ET) Jaguars wide receiver Cecil Shorts played all 60 snaps Sunday against the Colts after missing the first two games due to a hamstring injury. He was targeted 10 times, hauling in five catches for 35 yards and a touchdown.

"I felt good," Shorts said, per ESPN. "I tell you what, our training staff and our strength staff does a great job. They got me back real fast. It felt good to be back out there with the guys." 


Report: Marcus Easley to miss 4-6 weeks due to knee injury
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:59 am ET) Bills wide receiver Marcus Easley is expected to miss 4-6 weeks due to an MCL sprain, a league source told ESPN. Easley primarily plays on special teams and has no catches through three games.

Owen Daniels to step into larger role
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(10:47 am ET) With Dennis Pitta going down with another hip injury, Ravens tight end Owen Daniels is likely to be thrust into a larger role than he has had the first three games, and it is one he should be well-suited to fill.

It is easy to forget, but Daniels was considered a borderline No. 1 tight end last season, before he suffering through a season of Matt Schaub's quarterbacking and a fractured fibula. In 2012, he finished 8th among tight ends in Fantasy scoring -- just two points behind Pitta. Daniels caught 60.2 percent of passes thrown his way to finish the season with 62 receptions for 716 yards that season, and could put up similar numbers the rest of the way.

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco likes to throw to his tight ends, as Ed Dickson, Dallas Clark and Pitta combined for 128 targets a year ago. With Daniels the best receiving option left among the team's tight ends, expect most of the looks to go his way, and he already showed in Week 2 he can be a solid red-zone target for Flacco.

Daniels is still unowned in three-quarters of CBSSports.com leagues, but should be worth targeting if you lost Pitta or are otherwise looking for help this week. 


Could Bortles time make Allen Hurns more effective?
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(10:25 am ET) Generally speaking, rookies are tough to rely on in Fantasy. They tend to produce inconsistent numbers while learning the game, making them incredibly tough to rely on from a week-to-week perspective. That has certainly been the case for Jaguars rookie Allen Hurns, who has sandwiched two double-digit Fantasy efforts around a near no-show in Week 2. Now that he has a rookie in Blake Bortles throwing it to him, why should we expect Hurns to be any more reliable moving forward?

Hurns has shown an impressive ability, thus far, to get open down the field. Even during his 2-catch, 13-yard stinker against Washington, he was open downfield and dropped a sure-fire long touchdown. Chad Henne might have lost faith in Hurns after that, as he failed to target him once in Week 3, but newly appointed starter Bortles looked Hurns way three times in the second half of Sunday's game, with the duo eventually hooking up for a 63-yard score.

The long touchdown is starting to become Hurns' signature play, and he will have real home-run potential for Fantasy. He will also likely certainly be wildly inconsistent, as both he and Bortles feel their way through their first weeks together in the NFL. Still, he has a chance to be one of the top rookie wideouts in the league this season, and is worth taking a chance on in waivers this week -- he is owned in just 41 percent of CBSSports.com leagues.  


Randall Cobb frustrated with play after three weeks
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:21 am ET) Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb was not happy following his team's 19-7 loss Sunday against the Lions. Cobb totaled only three catches for 29 yards, and the entire offense struggled against a Lions defense that was decimated by injury.

"Our defense played their butts off tonight," Cobb said, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "We did nothing for them. It was kind of embarrassing as an offense, embarrassing myself the way I played."

Although Cobb had two touchdowns Week 2 and three on the season, he has just 14 catches for 126 yards through three games. He also has just one catch of 20-plus yards.

"I have to do more, I have to give this team more," he said. "I have to look in the mirror first and see where it is that I can do more to help this team out."


John Brown unlikely to be a reliable source of scores
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(10:15 am ET) Arizona rookie wide receiver John Brown is sure to be one of the hottest names on the waiver wire ahead of Week 4, but Fantasy owners might be searching for fool's gold if they are looking to bolster their receiving corps with the young Cardinals wide out.

Through the first three weeks of his career, Brown looks like a bonafide red-zone monster, having hauled in three touchdowns, including two in Sunday's win over the 49ers. However, he also had just 52 receiving yards in the game, with almost all of his value coming from those two scores. Unfortunately, an early proclivity for scoring doesn't necessarily mean a player has a nose for the end zone.

Over the past five seasons, 14 rookies have caught two touchdowns in a game while failing to top 55 yards in that same game, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com's play index. And though some of them -- Jimmy Graham, Dez Bryant, Rob Gronkowski -- went on to stardom, the collective isn't particularly impressive as a whole. Over their next two games played, the 14 players accounted for 10 total touchdowns but just 149 Fantasy points overall, an average of just 5.3 points per game.

Brown has been the best Fantasy option in the Cardinals' receiving corps so far, but he won't be much use if -- when -- the touchdowns run dry. He is just third on the team in targets and could be a big-time disappointment moving forward. 


Steelers could be without three defensive players for a while
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:09 am ET) Steelers linebacker Ryan Shazier suffered a sprained MCL Sunday against the Panthers and will undergo an MRI Monday, according to ESPN. 

Linebacker Jarvis Jones likely needs wrist surgery after getting hurt Sunday and will be sidelined indefinitely. Cornerback Ike Taylor could also miss some time after suffering a broken arm against Carolina.


Making sense of Baltimore's backfield, post-Taliaferro breakout
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(9:48 am ET) It took just about every other back being unavailable, but Ravens rookie running back Lorenzo Taliaferro got the chance to shine in Week 3 against the Browns.

Taliaferro led the Ravens in rushing yards Sunday, racking up a team-high 91 on 18 carries, including a 31-yard long run and a 1-yard touchdown. However, he was actually less effective on a per-touch basis than Justin Forsett, who averaged 5.7 yards per carry to Taliaferro's 5.1. Is Taliaferro a star in the making, or just a flash in the pan?

Among the four players who have had at least 10 carries through three games against the Browns, Taliaferro actually ranked fourth in yards per carry, as the Browns are giving up 5.2 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Though you will certainly want to go out and add Taliaferro, be mindful of the fact that he did his work against a team that has been pitiful against the run thus far.

The Ravens have seemed to be looking for reasons to push Bernard Pierce down the depth chart this season, but it is not clear if Taliaferro's performance in Week 3 will be enough to do that for good. With Taliaferro's emergence, the Ravens look to have three dependable options in the back field, meaning he is likely to be working in a crowded backfield for the time being. Taliaferro is an interesting pickup, though likely not a Fantasy starter at this point. 


 
 
 
Rankings