CBSSports.com Playoff Challenge preview

Senior Fantasy Writer

Dec. 31, 2012 10:02 AM ET

The regular season might be over, but the Fantasy fun doesn't have to stop. You can still keep those competitive Fantasy juices going in our Playoff Challenge (click here to learn more).

It's a simple game, really, that's fun for everyone, especially if you love Fantasy Football. You get 300 units to set your lineup, which consists of eight players (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, K and DST). You are allowed eight moves throughout the playoffs, and the scoring is standard.

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The goal is to choose players who will play in as many games as possible through the four rounds of the playoffs: Wild Card, Divisional, Conference and Super Bowl. The key is making as few moves as possible to save transactions for the end.

The fun of setting your lineup is trying to figure out who will advance in each round, ultimately choosing a Super Bowl winner. The key to winning in this game is not just being a good Fantasy owner, but you also have to be knowledgeable in picking games. And you have to be a little lucky.

You want to choose teams with the chance to play four games to maximize points, and since 2000 there have been eight different teams -- Giants (2011), Packers (2010), Cardinals (2008), Giants (2007), Colts (2006), Steelers (2005), Panthers (2003) and Ravens (2000) -- to play in the Wild Card round and reach the Super Bowl. Six of those teams actually won it all with the Giants twice, Packers, Colts, Steelers and Ravens.

Last year, for example, if you had Eli Manning and Hakeem Nicks you had a pretty good chance of winning as they dominated the postseason. Who will do that this year?

My Wild Card lineup is as follows:

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Packers -- 82 units
Running back: Arian Foster, Texans -- 68 units
Running back: DuJuan Harris, Packers -- 7 units
Wide receiver: Greg Jennings, Packers -- 39 units
Wide receiver: Torrey Smith, Ravens -- 36 units
Tight end: Jermaine Gresham, Bengals -- 17 units
Kicker: Kai Forbath, Redskins -- 17 units
DST: Ravens -- 30 units

The total is 296 units, and I'm counting on Green Bay beating Minnesota, which is why I went with three Packers. Rodgers is a must at quarterback because Green Bay could easily make it to the Super Bowl from the Wild Card round, and he should have plenty of success. He is getting hot at the right time with 11 total touchdowns in his past three games with no interceptions and an average of 333 passing yards over that span.

I went with Jennings as the Packers receiver of choice even though Randall Cobb (44 units), Jordy Nelson (41) and James Jones (40) are within the same range. Jennings, as you know, just scored twice against Minnesota in Week 17. He was also targeted a team-high 12 times and now has seven touchdowns in his past five meetings with the Vikings. Cobb also is dealing with injuries to his ankle and knee.

At running back, Harris is the No. 2 choice for two reasons: cost and effectiveness. He is the best buy at seven units, especially since he has at least eight Fantasy points in three of his past four games, including 14 carries for 70 yards and two catches for 17 yards against the Vikings in Week 17. The Packers don't have a true running back, but he's worth the gamble based on his price.

I also expect the Ravens to beat the Colts, which is why I went with Smith and the Ravens DST. Smith has seven touchdowns at home this year, and No. 1 receivers have done serious damage against the Colts with 12 reaching double digits in Fantasy points. The Colts have also allowed four of the past seven DST options to reach at least 12 Fantasy points, and the Ravens should get linebacker Ray Lewis (triceps) back.

I'm torn on the Bengals-Texans and Seahawks-Redskins. I went with Foster at running back because even in one game he should do well. He scored double digits in Fantasy points in all but one game this year with 17 total touchdowns. Last year against the Bengals in the Wild Card round -- with T.J. Yates at quarterback -- he had 24 carries for 153 yards and two touchdowns and three catches for 29 yards. And Gresham, despite his recent struggles, is facing a Texans defense that has allowed five touchdowns to tight ends in the past four games.

Forbath was my kicker because of cost at 17 units, and I took him at home with the chance the Redskins keep their seven-game winning streak alive. He also has at least eight Fantasy points in three of his past four games.

We'll continue to update you on the Playoff Challenge each week and also look players who are improving their Fantasy value for 2013 with strong postseason performances. Like we said, just because the regular season is over doesn't mean the Fantasy fun should stop.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

Rodgers: Cobb could catch 100 passes
Randall Cobb, WR, GB
10:37 AM

News: ESPN reports that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has high expectations for third-year receiver Randall Cobb this season. Last year, Cobb made an enormous jump in his second NFL season. With Greg Jennings out with a torn abdominal muscle, Cobb played 733 snaps and caught a team-high 80 passes for 954 yards and added eight touchdowns. Rodgers thinks Cobb can do more. "I think Randall Cobb is a guy who could be a 100-plus catch guy every year," Rodgers said.

Analysis: We don't think Rodgers is far off with Cobb, who could take the next step in his career in his third season. The Packers as a team have high expectations for Cobb, and we like him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option. Plan on drafting Cobb in Round 4 in the majority of leagues, with his value slightly higher in PPR formats.

Williams played 'scared' in '12
Ryan Williams, RB, ARI
10:08 AM

News: Cardinals running back Ryan Williams told the Arizona Republic that he was more concerned about his knee than his play last season, saying he played scared. Williams came back from a torn patella tendon suffered in 2011 and wasn't ready for the physical punishment that comes with playing running back. Per the story, he got nervous when then-quarterback Kevin Kolb would call '39 toss' because it exposed his right side and his injured knee. The lack of confidence left him "pretty much scared all last year to get the ball in my hands." He added hurting his shoulder was a "blessing" because it allowed him time to get his knee feeling good. Now he says he's not scared anymore. "This is the healthiest I've felt in the past two years," Williams said. "It feels good to be able to run like myself, instinctive and not having to think about what I’m doing, just going out and doing it. I've been working real hard, so things are looking good. My stars are aligned this year."

Analysis: In the story coach Bruce Arians noted that Williams has his mobility back and is someone to watch when the pads come on. Williams has to fight for playing time after the Cardinals drafted Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington and signed Rashard Mendenhall. For now he's no better than a late-round flier but if he looks good in camp and runs with confidence then we could see him getting a decent amount of work.

Harbaugh: Crabtree will play in '13
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
8:45 AM

News: 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh indicated that Michael Crabtree's torn right Achilles will not cost him the entire season. With surgery already done, it is believed Crabtree will return within six months. Linebacker Patrick Willis said Crabtree went down after making a "simple, normal cut" after going in motion and before starting his route during 7 on 7 drills. "Crab is one of those tough guys. He can get hit hard, and he'll bounce right back up," Willis told the San Jose Mercury News. "Yesterday he stayed down a little longer than normal. You say a little prayer and hope it wasn't as bad as it looked. Unfortunately it is."

Analysis: Crabtree was expected to post ridiculous numbers in 2013 after becoming Colin Kaepernick's go-to receiver last year and his promise to dedicate himself to being the Niners' top receiver this year. Eventually he should return and contribute to the Niners but the earliest it seems he could be back is Week 12 at Washington. If you draft Crabtree with what would now be a late-round pick, you'd have to dedicate a bench spot to him for most of the regular season with no guarantee you'd get him in your lineup at 100 percent, if at all. We'd rather spend the same late-round pick on Anquan Boldin or maybe even A.J. Jenkins knowing both will see a lot of work in San Francisco with Crabtree sidelined.

Carter had shoulder surgery
Delone Carter, RB, IND
10:27 AM

News: Backup Colts running back Delone Carter had recent shoulder surgery and isn't practicing in team OTAs according to the Indianapolis Star. He dealt with a thumb injury and two ankle injuries in 2012.

Analysis: Carter will struggle to find meaningful playing time in 2013 aside from potentially being the goal-line back for the Colts. That makes him a candidate to tally six points per week for Fantasy owners, but that's not exactly worth counting on from week to week. Figure Carter to be a low-end option off waivers during the season when the Colts face a terrible defense (Weeks 4 and 17 against Jacksonville stand out).

Ivory locking up top spot
Chris Ivory, RB, NYJ
10:27 AM

News: The New York Post reports that Jets running back Chris Ivory is "sitting even prettier" in the fight to be the No. 1 running back now that newly acquired Mike Goodson’s future with the team is up in the air after his arrest last week on drugs and weapons charges. Ivory’s only competition for snaps with Goodson out are Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight. Ivory considers himself reborn as a Jet, telling a New Orleans newspaper shortly after the trade that he was “going to put up some crazy numbers in New York.” Coach Rex Ryan said the best for Ivory is yet to come. “Ivory’s not going to shine until you put the pads on,” Ryan said. “He’s a physical-style back. We’re really not going to see what he’s all about until we start putting the ball under his arm and letting him run.”

Analysis: Ivory would have likely been the No. 1 running back for the Jets even if Goodson had not gotten into trouble, but this only makes his outlook better. He comes into this season as a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy running back with the chance to be a Top 20 option. He's worth drafting by Round 4 or 5 in the majority of standard leagues, with his value slightly lower in PPR formats.

49ers could go back to Moss
Randy Moss, WR, SF
10:12 AM

News: Comcast Sports Net reports that one possible free agent the 49ers could look at with Michael Crabtree (Achilles) getting hurt is Randy Moss, who caught 28 passes for 434 yards and three touchdowns last season in San Francisco. The 49ers seemingly closed the door on Moss early in the offseason after Jim Harbaugh declared he wanted Moss back on the team in 2013. The report says Moss is enjoying spending time with his kids, said a source close to Moss. But if the 49ers wanted to talk to Moss, there's little doubt he would listen.

Analysis: Moss would make sense coming back to the 49ers since he knows the team, played with Colin Kaepernick and would provide a downfield presence. That said, his best days are behind him, and his Fantasy value would be minimal coming into the year. The 49ers will likely do something to help replace Crabtree, and it could be Moss. Keep an eye on what develops, and we'll know Moss' value once he signs somewhere.

Doss impressive in OTAs
Tandon Doss, WR, BAL
9:44 AM

News: During Wednesday OTA practice in Baltimore, receiver Tandon Doss split a lot of first-team work with Deonte Thompson and made several nice catches according to the Carroll County Times. Included in that was a touchdown grab in team drills.

Analysis: Doss is considered a good route runner with good size (6-foot-2, 207 pounds). Holding off Thompson, among others, will be key for him to have any chance of seeing playing time this summer. Outside of Torrey Smith it's unlikely any Ravens wideout will get picked in drafts this summer.

Smith likes McCluster
Dexter McCluster, WR, KC
10:41 AM

News: Alex Smith commented on how impressed he's been with Chiefs receiver Dexter McCluster. The versatile McCluster has tried to find a niche with the Chiefs since arriving and might have something with coach Andy Reid working to use him effectively. "Not knowing much about Dexter McCluster ... he was the running back/receiver, and seeing how fluid he is, going in and out of those roles has been impressive for me to watch," Smith said Wednesday. "It’s easy to talk about in the meeting room to say let’s put (a) receiver in and have him run routes and be natural at it and then put him back in the backfield to do a multitude of things ... It’s another thing to see it live. He’s a special guy, and he’s really taken it on."

Analysis: For now McCluster is listed as a receiver with the Chiefs but the designation could change before the start of the season. He also has underwhelmed in his first three seasons but did catch over 50 passes in 2012. The more involved he becomes, the more appealing he gets for Fantasy owners. We'll see how Reid uses him but for now he's one to watch, not draft, unless you're looking for a sleeper way late in PPR leagues.

Hynoski hurts knee
Henry Hynoski, RB, NYG
10:36 AM

News: The Giants posted an update on fullback Henry Hynoski. The veteran "suffered an injury to his medial collateral ligament and a chip fracture to the lateral plateau." The injuries require surgery. He hopes to be ready in time for Week 1. "I am going to set my mind to being ready for the first game of the regular season," said Hynoski. "They said that is not an unrealistic goal, and I will do everything in my power to be ready for the start of the season."

Analysis: Hynoski will get a carry or catch every now and then, but he is mostly in the lineup for his blocking presence. Hynoski will have no Fantasy appeal next season.

Angerer out until camp?
Pat Angerer, LB, IND
10:30 AM

News: Colts linebacker Pat Angerer might be out until the start of training camp after undergoing a second surgery to fix a broken bone in his right foot. He said his foot “feels better now than it did all last year,” according to the Indianapolis Star.

Analysis: Angerer has all sorts of potential for tackles in the middle of the Colts defense but health issues keep his potential limited. He's worth a middle- to late-round pick as a high-risk, high-reward Fantasy LB.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings