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Playoff Extra: Is there a QB hangover?

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

There is an interesting aspect to Super Bowl XLVII, but not because of the quarterbacks playing in the game. It's because of the names not competing.

This Super Bowl will be just the second one since 2000 to not have a quarterback named Brady, Manning or Roethlisberger in it. The other one was XXXVII when Tampa Bay beat Oakland 48-21. You can ask Tim Brown or Bill Callahan about that game, but that's a different topic for a different day.

Here, we are looking at what happens to Super Bowl quarterbacks the year after playing in the big game. The sample size we'll go over is from 2006 when Indianapolis beat Chicago 29-17 in Super Bowl XLI until now.

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There have been some talented Fantasy quarterbacks over that span, including Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick, the quarterbacks in this year's Super Bowl, aren't at that level yet, but you never know how each will develop, especially following a successful postseason run.

In looking at the winning and losing quarterbacks from the past six Super Bowls, three of the winners have seen an increase in Fantasy production the following year. The losers, however, have struggled.

On average, the Super Bowl winners have improved by almost 24 Fantasy points the following season, but there have been varying degrees of success. Aaron Rodgers and Roethlisberger saw an increase of more than 100 Fantasy points the year after winning the Super Bowl. But Eli Manning in 2012 saw his production decline by 54 points.

The losers have seen their Fantasy production drop by almost 116 points the next year, but that stat is skewed because of Brady and his knee injury in Week 1 of 2008. If you take Brady out of the equation, the losing quarterbacks have only declined by 44 Fantasy points on average. But the losers have struggled the following year with injuries to Roethlisberger, Brady and Rex Grossman.

There is a different reason for the success and failure of each quarterback the year after playing in the Super Bowl, which we'll address below. And Flacco and Kaepernick will each have their own story to tell in 2013 after playing in the big game.

For Kaepernick, his stats can only improve because he made just seven starts in the regular season after taking over for Alex Smith. At least we hope he'll improve barring a significant injury next season.

Editor's note: All stats listed below are regular season only.

XLVI: Giants 21, Patriots 17
Eli Manning, Giants
2011: 4,933 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 16 interceptions; 15 rushing yards and one touchdown; four fumbles in 16 games (330 Fantasy points)
2012:
3,948 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 15 interceptions; 30 rushing yards; three fumbles in 16 games (276 Fantasy points)
Difference:
Manning had a rough go of it in 2012 because of problems with his receiving corps. He lost Mario Manningham as a free agent to San Francisco, and Hakeem Nicks battled foot and knee injuries all year. We expect Manning to rebound in 2013, and he will bounce back as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback.

Tom Brady, Patriots
2011: 5,235 passing yards, 39 touchdowns and 12 interceptions; 109 rushing yards and three touchdowns; two fumbles in 16 games (431 Fantasy points)
2012:
4,827 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and eight interceptions; 32 rushing yards and four touchdowns; one fumble in 16 games (397 Fantasy points)
Difference:
Brady's Fantasy points declined, but not by much. He lost Rob Gronkowski for five games due to a broken forearm, which hurt his production, and Aaron Hernandez missed six games with an ankle injury. The Patriots also improved their running game with Stevan Ridley over BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Brady will be 36 in 2013, but he remains an elite Fantasy quarterback.

XLV: Packers 31, Steelers 25
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2010: 3,922 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions; 356 rushing yards and four touchdowns; three fumbles in 15 games (344 Fantasy points)
2011: 4,643 passing yards, 45 touchdowns and six interceptions; 257 rushing yards and three touchdowns; one fumble in 15 games (475 Fantasy points)
Difference: Rodgers showed that his performance in 2010 was no fluke as he had an MVP season in 2011. The Super Bowl victory helped establish Rodgers as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL -- something Fantasy owners have known for some time.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
2010: 3,200 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions; 176 rushing yards and two touchdowns; two fumbles in 12 games (230 Fantasy points)
2011: 4,077 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions; 70 rushing yards; five fumbles in 15 games (248 Fantasy points)
Difference: Roethlisberger would have been the No. 7 quarterback in 2010 if he played 16 games, but he was out to start the season with a suspension. Injuries limited him in 2011, which hurt his overall production. He should have improved by more than 18 Fantasy points since he played in three additional games.

XLIV: Saints 31, Colts 17
Drew Brees, Saints
2009: 4,388 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and 11 interceptions; 33 rushing yards and two touchdowns; six fumbles in 15 games (350 Fantasy points)
2010: 4,620 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and 22 interceptions; two fumbles in 16 games (329 Fantasy points)
Difference: Despite his Fantasy production dropping by 21 points, Brees remained a No. 1 quarterback the year after winning the Super Bowl. The biggest difference for Brees was his turnovers, which increased by seven.

Peyton Manning, Colts
2009: 4,500 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 16 games (340 Fantasy points)
2010: 4,700 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and 17 interceptions; 18 rushing yards; one fumble in 16 games (345 Fantasy points)
Difference: Manning was the lone losing quarterback in the past five seasons to see his Fantasy points increase on average while playing in the same amount of games in each year. The difference for him was his yardage increased while the rest of his stats were almost identical.

XLIII: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
2008: 3,314 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions; 101 rushing yards and two touchdowns; seven fumbles in 16 games (200 Fantasy points)
2009: 4,328 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions; 79 rushing yards and two touchdowns; three fumbles in 15 games (305 Fantasy points)
Difference: The offense in Pittsburgh changed for Roethlisberger after this Super Bowl victory. He became more of a passer, and since then Roethlisberger has remained a borderline No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in the majority of leagues.

Kurt Warner, Cardinals
2008: 4,582 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and 14 interceptions; seven fumbles in 16 games (313 Fantasy points)
2009: 3,753 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 14 interceptions; 10 rushing yards; six fumbles in 15 games (259 Fantasy points)
Difference: The 2009 season was Warner's last in the NFL before retiring, and the Cardinals showed more balance after their dynamic passing attack in 2008. Warner likely would have remained a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback if he returned in 2010.

XLII: Giants 17, Patriots 14
Eli Manning, Giants
2007: 3,336 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions; 69 rushing yards and one touchdown; seven fumbles in 16 games (219 Fantasy points)
2008: 3,238 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions; 10 rushing yards and one touchdown; two fumbles in 16 games (233 Fantasy points)
Difference: The reason Manning's Fantasy production improved in 2008 was he cut down on the turnovers. His 10 interceptions have been the fewest in his career since becoming a full-time starter.

Tom Brady, Patriots
2007: 4,806 passing yards, 50 touchdowns and eight interceptions; 98 rushing yards and two touchdowns; four fumbles in 16 games (477 Fantasy points)
2008: 76 passing yards in one game (one Fantasy point)
Difference: Brady had the best Fantasy season ever in 2007 before losing the Super Bowl, and his bad luck extended into the start of 2008 when he hurt his knee and was lost for the year. He has since made a nice recovery.

XLI: Colts 29, Bears 17
Peyton Manning, Colts
2006: 4,397 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions; 36 rushing yard and four touchdowns; one fumble in 16 games (360 Fantasy points)
2007: 4,040 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and 14 interceptions; three rushing touchdowns; one fumble in 16 games (331 Fantasy points)
Difference: Manning's best year of his career was 2004 when he had 49 touchdowns, but his 35 total scores in 2006 still stands at No. 2 during his tenure with the Colts. It was hard to duplicate that performance in 2007, but Manning was still a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback as expected.

Rex Grossman, Bears
2006: 3,197 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions; five fumbles in 16 games (207 Fantasy points)
2007: 1,411 passing yards, four touchdowns and seven interceptions; 27 rushing yards; three fumbles in eight games (54 Fantasy points)
Difference: Grossman was never considered a starting Fantasy option even with the Super Bowl run, and he fell apart in 2007. First he was benched in favor of Brian Griese, and then he was lost for the season with a knee injury.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

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