Playoff Extra: Is there a QB hangover?

Senior Fantasy Writer

Jan. 25, 2013 10:37 AM ET

There is an interesting aspect to Super Bowl XLVII, but not because of the quarterbacks playing in the game. It's because of the names not competing.

This Super Bowl will be just the second one since 2000 to not have a quarterback named Brady, Manning or Roethlisberger in it. The other one was XXXVII when Tampa Bay beat Oakland 48-21. You can ask Tim Brown or Bill Callahan about that game, but that's a different topic for a different day.

Here, we are looking at what happens to Super Bowl quarterbacks the year after playing in the big game. The sample size we'll go over is from 2006 when Indianapolis beat Chicago 29-17 in Super Bowl XLI until now.

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There have been some talented Fantasy quarterbacks over that span, including Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick, the quarterbacks in this year's Super Bowl, aren't at that level yet, but you never know how each will develop, especially following a successful postseason run.

In looking at the winning and losing quarterbacks from the past six Super Bowls, three of the winners have seen an increase in Fantasy production the following year. The losers, however, have struggled.

On average, the Super Bowl winners have improved by almost 24 Fantasy points the following season, but there have been varying degrees of success. Aaron Rodgers and Roethlisberger saw an increase of more than 100 Fantasy points the year after winning the Super Bowl. But Eli Manning in 2012 saw his production decline by 54 points.

The losers have seen their Fantasy production drop by almost 116 points the next year, but that stat is skewed because of Brady and his knee injury in Week 1 of 2008. If you take Brady out of the equation, the losing quarterbacks have only declined by 44 Fantasy points on average. But the losers have struggled the following year with injuries to Roethlisberger, Brady and Rex Grossman.

There is a different reason for the success and failure of each quarterback the year after playing in the Super Bowl, which we'll address below. And Flacco and Kaepernick will each have their own story to tell in 2013 after playing in the big game.

For Kaepernick, his stats can only improve because he made just seven starts in the regular season after taking over for Alex Smith. At least we hope he'll improve barring a significant injury next season.

Editor's note: All stats listed below are regular season only.

XLVI: Giants 21, Patriots 17
Eli Manning, Giants
2011: 4,933 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 16 interceptions; 15 rushing yards and one touchdown; four fumbles in 16 games (330 Fantasy points)
2012: 3,948 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 15 interceptions; 30 rushing yards; three fumbles in 16 games (276 Fantasy points)
Difference: Manning had a rough go of it in 2012 because of problems with his receiving corps. He lost Mario Manningham as a free agent to San Francisco, and Hakeem Nicks battled foot and knee injuries all year. We expect Manning to rebound in 2013, and he will bounce back as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback.

Tom Brady, Patriots
2011: 5,235 passing yards, 39 touchdowns and 12 interceptions; 109 rushing yards and three touchdowns; two fumbles in 16 games (431 Fantasy points)
2012: 4,827 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and eight interceptions; 32 rushing yards and four touchdowns; one fumble in 16 games (397 Fantasy points)
Difference: Brady's Fantasy points declined, but not by much. He lost Rob Gronkowski for five games due to a broken forearm, which hurt his production, and Aaron Hernandez missed six games with an ankle injury. The Patriots also improved their running game with Stevan Ridley over BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Brady will be 36 in 2013, but he remains an elite Fantasy quarterback.

XLV: Packers 31, Steelers 25
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2010: 3,922 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions; 356 rushing yards and four touchdowns; three fumbles in 15 games (344 Fantasy points)
2011: 4,643 passing yards, 45 touchdowns and six interceptions; 257 rushing yards and three touchdowns; one fumble in 15 games (475 Fantasy points)
Difference: Rodgers showed that his performance in 2010 was no fluke as he had an MVP season in 2011. The Super Bowl victory helped establish Rodgers as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL -- something Fantasy owners have known for some time.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
2010: 3,200 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions; 176 rushing yards and two touchdowns; two fumbles in 12 games (230 Fantasy points)
2011: 4,077 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions; 70 rushing yards; five fumbles in 15 games (248 Fantasy points)
Difference: Roethlisberger would have been the No. 7 quarterback in 2010 if he played 16 games, but he was out to start the season with a suspension. Injuries limited him in 2011, which hurt his overall production. He should have improved by more than 18 Fantasy points since he played in three additional games.

XLIV: Saints 31, Colts 17
Drew Brees, Saints
2009: 4,388 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and 11 interceptions; 33 rushing yards and two touchdowns; six fumbles in 15 games (350 Fantasy points)
2010: 4,620 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and 22 interceptions; two fumbles in 16 games (329 Fantasy points)
Difference: Despite his Fantasy production dropping by 21 points, Brees remained a No. 1 quarterback the year after winning the Super Bowl. The biggest difference for Brees was his turnovers, which increased by seven.

Peyton Manning, Colts
2009: 4,500 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 16 games (340 Fantasy points)
2010: 4,700 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and 17 interceptions; 18 rushing yards; one fumble in 16 games (345 Fantasy points)
Difference: Manning was the lone losing quarterback in the past five seasons to see his Fantasy points increase on average while playing in the same amount of games in each year. The difference for him was his yardage increased while the rest of his stats were almost identical.

XLIII: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
2008: 3,314 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions; 101 rushing yards and two touchdowns; seven fumbles in 16 games (200 Fantasy points)
2009: 4,328 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions; 79 rushing yards and two touchdowns; three fumbles in 15 games (305 Fantasy points)
Difference: The offense in Pittsburgh changed for Roethlisberger after this Super Bowl victory. He became more of a passer, and since then Roethlisberger has remained a borderline No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in the majority of leagues.

Kurt Warner, Cardinals
2008: 4,582 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and 14 interceptions; seven fumbles in 16 games (313 Fantasy points)
2009: 3,753 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 14 interceptions; 10 rushing yards; six fumbles in 15 games (259 Fantasy points)
Difference: The 2009 season was Warner's last in the NFL before retiring, and the Cardinals showed more balance after their dynamic passing attack in 2008. Warner likely would have remained a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback if he returned in 2010.

XLII: Giants 17, Patriots 14
Eli Manning, Giants
2007: 3,336 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions; 69 rushing yards and one touchdown; seven fumbles in 16 games (219 Fantasy points)
2008: 3,238 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions; 10 rushing yards and one touchdown; two fumbles in 16 games (233 Fantasy points)
Difference: The reason Manning's Fantasy production improved in 2008 was he cut down on the turnovers. His 10 interceptions have been the fewest in his career since becoming a full-time starter.

Tom Brady, Patriots
2007: 4,806 passing yards, 50 touchdowns and eight interceptions; 98 rushing yards and two touchdowns; four fumbles in 16 games (477 Fantasy points)
2008: 76 passing yards in one game (one Fantasy point)
Difference: Brady had the best Fantasy season ever in 2007 before losing the Super Bowl, and his bad luck extended into the start of 2008 when he hurt his knee and was lost for the year. He has since made a nice recovery.

XLI: Colts 29, Bears 17
Peyton Manning, Colts
2006: 4,397 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions; 36 rushing yard and four touchdowns; one fumble in 16 games (360 Fantasy points)
2007: 4,040 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and 14 interceptions; three rushing touchdowns; one fumble in 16 games (331 Fantasy points)
Difference: Manning's best year of his career was 2004 when he had 49 touchdowns, but his 35 total scores in 2006 still stands at No. 2 during his tenure with the Colts. It was hard to duplicate that performance in 2007, but Manning was still a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback as expected.

Rex Grossman, Bears
2006: 3,197 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions; five fumbles in 16 games (207 Fantasy points)
2007: 1,411 passing yards, four touchdowns and seven interceptions; 27 rushing yards; three fumbles in eight games (54 Fantasy points)
Difference: Grossman was never considered a starting Fantasy option even with the Super Bowl run, and he fell apart in 2007. First he was benched in favor of Brian Griese, and then he was lost for the season with a knee injury.

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Gronkowski slated for fourth surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2:00 PM

News: New England tight end Rob Gronkowski will undergo a fourth surgery on his left forearm Monday at Massachusetts General Hospital, the Boston Herald reports Sunday. Dr. Jesse Jupiter is expected to perform the surgery. A new plate is expected to replace the one already in his arm and he will begin a new 10-11 week recovery period.

Analysis: The doctors will take a culture from Gronk's arm and if it shows the infection has lingered, it could be "back to square one," for the tight end. He could miss regular season games if that happens so Fantasy owners will want to watch out. It goes without saying that his Fantasy draft stock will be affected negatively if he has all the procedures and isn't ready for training camp or preseason games. Count on us to keep you posted on the latest news on Gronkowski between now and when the season starts.

Freeney signs with Chargers
Dwight Freeney, DE, IND
10:44 AM

News: The Chargers have signed linebacker Dwight Freeney to a two-year contract, NFL.com reports.

Analysis: The 33-year-old Freeney had 12 tackles and five sacks last year for the Colts. The Chargers needed a pass rusher and this was a good fit. Still, we're not sure he'll carry much Fantasy value in IDP formats.

Manuel could start Week 1
EJ Manuel, QB, BUF
5/17/2013

News: The Bills official team website reports that new general manager Doug Whaley was asked in an appearance on the NFL Network about the chances of rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel being ready to start Week 1 of the regular season. Whaley didn’t rule out the possibility. “Time will tell,” said Whaley. ”He does have the work ethic and the leadership qualities that he’ll have a chance. But we believe competition brings out the best in everybody. Between him, Kevin Kolb, Tarvaris Jackson, even Jeff Tuel, we’re excited to see who comes out on top of that position battle.” Buffalo’s season opener is a home game against New England.

Analysis: We'd like to see Manuel start from Week 1 because he presents the most upside of the quarterback group in Buffalo. Keep an eye on Manuel's progress this offseason, and he has the chance to be a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback in standard leagues. In rookie-only drafts, Manuel should be considered a Top 15 overall selection.

Goodson arrested Friday
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
5/17/2013

News: Jets running back Mike Goodson was arrested on drug and weapon charges early on Friday morning, reports News 12 in New Jersey. According to the report, Goodson and another man were found intoxicated in a parked SUV along Route 80 in Denville, New Jersey, which is about 15 miles northwest of the Jets' headquarters in Florham Park. A loaded .45-caliber handgun with hollow-point bullets was found in the SUV and when the 25-year-old running back was transported to a hospital for evaluation, marijuana was discovered in his possession. The Jets signed Goodson to a three-year, $6 million contract on March 15 to compete for a starting job this season. Goodson's deal with the Jets included a $1.93 million guaranteed. CBSSports.com blogger Will Brinson researched that illegal possession of hollow point bullets is a "crime of the fourth degree" in New Jersey, which appears to be among the states with the strictest laws regarding the ammunition.

Analysis: Goodson could be headed to prison, not to mention an NFL suspension, if found guilty of this crime. Before this incident we expected him to be No. 2 on the depth chart behind Chris Ivory. Now there's no telling just how far he'll fall. For the time being there's no reason to spend anything more than a late-round flier on Goodson since his playing time was going to be fairly limited to begin with.

Irvin suspended four games
Bruce Irvin, LB, SEA
5/17/2013

News: Seattle defensive end Bruce Irvin has been suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2013 regular season for violating the NFL policy on performance enhancing substances, the team reported Friday. Irvin will be eligible to return to the Seahawks' active roster on Monday, Sept. 30 following the team's Sept. 29 game against the Texans. Irvin is eligible to participate in all offseason and preseason practices and games. "I want to apologize to my teammates, coaches and Seahawks fans for making a mistake when I took a substance that is prohibited in the NFL without a medical exemption," Irvin said in a statement. "I am extremely disappointed in the poor judgment I showed and take full responsibility for my actions. I will not appeal the discipline and instead will focus my energy on preparing for the season so I can begin earning your trust and respect again. I look forward to contributing to the team the moment I return."

Analysis: Irvin had a solid year in 2012 with eight sacks. He didn't provide much else with only 16 total tackles and one fumble recovery, but he now will miss the first four games of the season. He is only worth drafting with a late-round flier in IDP leagues.

Cribbs still not healthy
Josh Cribbs, WR, OAK
5/17/2013

News: The Raiders official team website reports that newly signed receiver Josh Cribbs hopes to have a role on offense as much as just being a return man. "Definitely. I feel like it’s a definite possibility for competition at that position," Cribbs said. "At this point, my job is to come in and be a special teams' guru to help solidify our special teams unit in the NFL and to raise our goals and our standards. If we do that, we will become an elite unit." Cribbs also addressed the health of his knee. "I’m doing well," Cribbs said. "If we were lining up to play football in June then it would be a hot topic. I will be ready to play football when it’s time to play football, and I think that is the important thing."

Analysis: It sounds like Cribbs is still dealing with his knee issue, but he should be ready for the start of training camp. He also could see time at receiver, but he'll have to prove himself first. He's not worth drafting in standard leagues, but he could be worth a late-round flier in leagues where you get points for return yardage.

Ryan speaks on O-line
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
5/17/2013

News: Matt Ryan's receiving threats are well documented and the Falcons' run game got a strong upgrade in Steven Jackson. But the offensive line is undergoing some changes as center Todd McClure retired and Tyson Clabo was released. Ryan says not to worry about it. "We've got a guy in Peter Konz that played guard for us last year, but during practice, I got a lot of snaps with Peter. Joe Hawley has played a little bit for us when Todd’s been out for a series or two throughout games the last couple of years. I’ll be fine. We’ll be fine with those guys in terms of the snap," Ryan told 790 The Zone in Atlanta. "It’s a little different and that takes some getting used to so it becomes something you don’t even think about. ... We've got Mike Johnson who has played a number of different roles for us. Then a young guy like Lamar Holmes, he’s a guy we drafted high last year that we feel really good about. He’s extremely talented and I think he’s beginning to learn the offense more and more and this offseason has been productive for him. I’m excited about those guys. I think they’re fully capable of coming in and playing good football for us. They just need to do it."

Analysis: The Falcons' offensive line is actually a significant factor for Ryan. Last season when he was not under pressure and not blitzed he completed over 70 percent of his passes. When he was blitzed or under pressure that completion percentage fell to under 62 percent according to Pro Football Focus. That's probably typical for most quarterbacks but we've seen passers' numbers completely decline when they're under duress (think of Arizona last year, Chicago and St. Louis in years past). Granted, Ryan's a very talented passer and the O-line shouldn't be what does him in, it's just something to watch in camp this summer. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback who will fall to Round 4 in drafts this summer.

Ryan speaks on O-line
Falcons, TQB ATL,
5/17/2013

Wright in better shape
Kendall Wright, WR, TEN
5/17/2013

News: The Titans official website reports that receiver Kendall Wright has never felt better physically. “I’m in the best shape I’ve ever been,” Wright said. The second-year receiver is tipping the scales around 187 pounds, approximately 14 pounds lighter than when he arrived last year. Wright attributed part of the transformation to workouts at Baylor after his rookie campaign ended. A bigger difference maker, however, may have been his routes through grocery stores that passed by junk food. “For the most part, it wasn’t about the running,” Wright said. “I just started taking care of my body and eating right. I wasn’t eating right at all. I was eating a lot of junk food because that’s what I like and that’s what I’d buy, but I cut down on that and just started eating right. When you don’t buy it, you’re not going to eat it, so I just stopped buying it.”

Analysis: Wright finished his rookie season with 64 catches for 626 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games. He enters this season with the chance to start for the Titans, and we like him as a key reserve receiver with upside. Plan on drafting Wright with a mid-round pick.

Keiser rumbles to Bolts
Thomas Keiser, LB, SD
5/17/2013

News: Days after his release from the Panthers, the Chargers have signed linebacker Thomas Keiser.

Analysis: Keiser played in four games last year before landing on IR with an elbow injury. He'll try and help replace Melvin Ingram in the team's pass rush. He's unlikely to be a relevant Fantasy option.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings