Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2013 Draft Prep: Wide receiver tiers and strategies

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Tiers by position: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | K/DSTs

Think for a second about the perfect Fantasy receiver. He's a beast on the field, he's a headache for defensive backs and he scores a ton of points for your teams on a consistent basis.

You'll be pleased to know that there are many very good receivers who fit that bill. Three receivers had 200 or more points last year, which is light but not exactly uncommon over the past couple of seasons. But for the second year in a row, 16 NFL receivers scored 150-plus Fantasy points over the course of the season. Of those 16, an even dozen had 10 or more Fantasy points in half of their games.

Don't turn your nose up at that -- that's a good thing.

But that's not enough receivers to cover how many actually start in your league. It's good if you have one of those receivers, it's great if you have two. The goal on Draft Day should be to get two. And figuring out who they are isn't exactly rocket science.

Most of the best receivers in the NFL, and thus in Fantasy, are big, physical specimens with great hands, speed and great quarterbacks. They're pretty easy to spot. They also dominate the top of pretty much everyone's receiver rank list year after year. On Draft Day, after everyone takes a running back and/or a Calvin Johnson (or a quarterback ... eww) in Round 1, get ready to draft a stud receiver in Round 2 or Round 3 ... both if the right combo falls into your lap.

Whatever you do, Don't get caught without "safe" starting receivers. However many you need, make sure you get them. It's a pretty straightforward rule. Even if you pass on receivers for the first three rounds, don't hope to wing it with rookies and prospective starters later on. Though there are only a handful of 150-point guys, there are more 120-plus point players that are considered safe enough to go with weekly. Find them. Live by my rule again this year.

No. 2 running backs vs. No. 1 wide receivers

The trap that Fantasy owners step into on Draft Day is looking at running backs who are second- and third-tier and comparing them to receivers who are first- and second-tier. This will happen in Rounds 2 through 4 beginning right around the time Reggie Bush, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and even Jimmy Graham go off the board. Is it better to take the excellent player at a rapidly thinning position or the elite player at a position with some depth?

FREE Draft Kits!
Mike Tolbert
Get everything you need to dominate on Draft Day in one convenient place with our Downloadable Draft Kit, complete with projections, rankings and outlooks for 2013!
Download your Draft Kit now!

Factors like league size, scoring and lineup requirements will matter, but it really boils down to how soon you'll pick again, what's legitimately left at both running back and wide receiver when that next pick is up and who you're personally comfortable with taking. The nature of Fantasy drafts is that running backs will run thin before receivers run thin. That'll happen to you this year and it could be enough to influence you to spend a pick on Maurice Jones-Drew, DeMarco Murray or David Wilson ahead of a Demaryius Thomas, Roddy White or Andre Johnson.

I've already explained that only 16 receivers had 150-plus points last year while only three had 200-plus points, numbers that are basically consistent year-over-year. So it really comes down to this: Running backs are more prolific. They have more potential to score more than 150 points and on top of that they're harder to replace. Plus, by the time you start thinking receiver (other than Calvin), a half-dozen rushers or more will have been taken. Wide receivers, at least when we're talking about picks in the 18-30 overall neighborhood, are far more plentiful and offer some appealing choices when Rounds 3, 4 and 5 come around. So going with two running backs to start is probably a wise move.

That is, unless you're faced with an incredible value opportunity.

Such was the case in a 12-team mock draft we did in early August, where Dez Bryant fell to me in Round 2 and Brandon Marshall fell to me in Round 3. In that instance I jumped on the chance to land two Top 5 Fantasy receivers. Then I went crazy on running backs the rest of the draft since I knew I was never ever going to bench Dez or Marshall. I took one receiver with my last 12 picks. I was a happy camper, and in that instance I made an exception to starting with two running backs. You should make a similar exception if things fall the right way on Draft Day, otherwise be patient in collecting receivers.

Quality over quantity

What happened to me in our mock draft is an example of drafting what you need to get by, not drafting for talent or depth. It's a mistake to draft receiver after receiver after receiver when you can get high- and medium-upside running backs to take up those same spots on your bench.

Going cuckoo for running backs after the early rounds isn't a horrible thing at all. Each running back you take represents a chance for big numbers for your roster or a trade chip to help boost your team further down the line. Running backs are almost always in demand; receivers not so much.

Once you lock up your starting receivers and a backup or three, there isn't as much excitement shopping for a sleeper. Even if you hit, would you start the breakout sensation over the stud you picked in the early rounds (assuming the stud was performing studly)? So make the sleepers your backups. My sleeper list includes names like Josh Gordon, Michael Floyd, DeAndre Hopkins and even old man Anquan Boldin. They're more appealing to me than the likes of Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson and Steve Johnson. Kill two birds with one stone when you hunt backup receivers: Make them your sleepers, not seemingly-safe starters in case your main wideouts go missing.

Three's a crowd?

When's the last time you remember three receivers finishing as Top 24 Fantasy options?

Play Playoff Challenge!
Player Challenge
NEW Playoff Challenge Championship Edition offers one more way to play postseason Fantasy Football and compete for cash prizes. Join now before time runs out!
Join a new league!

If you said the Colts of 2004, you'd be right. Not only did the tremendous trio of Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley each finish in the Top 24, they actually all finished in the Top 12, making them No. 1 Fantasy receivers at season's end.

No team has fielded three receivers in the Top 24 since. Going back to the year 2000 only the Cardinals of 2008, the Giants of 2009 and the Steelers of 2009 have come close with three receivers finishing as Top 30 Fantasy wideouts.

I bring this up because two teams -- the Packers and the Broncos -- have three prolific receivers that, as of this writing, all three of your trusted CBSSports.com Fantasy writers have ranked as Top 30 options. Even considering the names of the talent involved that's gutsy.

That is until you realize who is throwing them the football. Aaron Rodgers has led three Packers receivers to Top 40 or better finishes each of the last two seasons. Peyton Manning has led three receivers to Top 40 or better finishes three times in the last decade. It's not Top 12 or 24 or 30 finishes but it's proof that they can spread the ball around and make their receivers productive in the process.

Success comes in threes
Teams since 2000 with three Top 12 WRs
Colts, 2004
Teams since 2000 with three Top 25 WRs
None
Teams since 2000 with three Top 30 WRs
Cardinals, 2008
Giants, 2009
Steelers, 2009
Teams since 2000 with three Top 35 WRs
Seahawks, 2003
Vikings, 2004
Bengals, 2006
Lions, 2007
Colts, 2010
Packers, 2012
Teams since 2000 with three Top 40 WRs
Rams, 2000
Raiders, 2002
Cardinals, 2006
Saints, 2008
Colts, 2009
Packers, 2011
The guys in Denver are pretty much entrenched as Fantasy stars. Demaryius Thomas is exactly the kind of receiver I talked about at the beginning of this column. Eric Decker provides big size and decent speed on the other side and is a humongous red-zone target. Wes Welker does his own thing on the inside and fools defensive backs all the time -- I remain unconvinced he was brought to Denver to catch only 75 passes this year. Manning will always take what the defense gives him and if defenses play the Broncos similarly to last year, then Welker will eat them alive. Short pass after short pass, "death by paper cuts" as one of my friends puts it. Decker is the riskiest of the three in my opinion, but all should be targeted by owners before the end of Round 6 in standard leagues and Round 5 in PPR leagues.

Green Bay's situation is a little different because they have a deep speed guy in Jordy Nelson, a slot/backfield menace in Randall Cobb and an outside receiver with refined hands and so-so speed in James Jones. Most owners are sold on Cobb being a 100-catch candidate. He averaged 9.6 Fantasy points per week last season and figures to have more opportunities starting in September. Nelson's hamstring and leg injuries will always keep me up at night as does his boom-or-bust potential from week to week. It's tough to trust him. I've always been outspoken on Jones and feel he's on the verge of being used more often this season, but his track record and lack of success outside of the red zone makes people antsy. Inside the red zone he's been an animal, scoring three touchdowns on five overall red zone targets in 2011 and 12 touchdowns on 20 red zone targets in 2012 (including the postseason). But I'll admit that if there's one receiver on the Packers with potential to finish outside of the Top 30, it's Jones.

The next class

Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall and others have done their thing for years, but there is a youth movement at receiver. Half of the receivers ranked in my Top 12 as of this writing are entering their fourth year or less. Here's your reminder that sometimes it pays to go young at receiver.

When I evaluate a receiver as a sleeper or a breakout, I always consider the role of the player, the skill set of the player and the quarterback throwing to the player. There have been times where really talented receivers put up big numbers in spite of their quarterbacks, but last season Larry Fitzgerald was the poster child for a talented receiver with a really crappy quarterback situation.

Here are some names to keep in mind on Draft Day.

DeAndre Hopkins, Texans: Rare is the receiver who puts up big stats in his first year, but all indications through the offseason and training camp suggest that Hopkins will have a similar effect on the Texans as Julio Jones did on the Falcons his first year. That's a very, very big statement but the Texans have been desperate for receiving help opposite Andre Johnson. Hopkins has huge hands, a big body and very good speed. Matt Schaub isn't the greatest quarterback entering 2013, but if there's anything he's proven with Johnson it's that he can hit his big targets. I'm looking for Hopkins in every single draft I'm in.

Michael Floyd, Cardinals: New Cardinals coach Bruce Arians likes to throw the ball downfield. To accomplish this he and the Cards acquired Carson Palmer. Linking Palmer with Fitzgerald and a physical menace like Floyd should make the offense pop. Floyd finished last season strong after struggling in a totally different scheme and has drawn rave reviews in training camp. He's the perfect type of reserve/sleeper receiver to nab on Draft Day.

Rueben Randle, Giants: Taking receivers without a great opportunity is a risk but with the Giants, they are a Hakeem Nicks injury away from opening a door. Giants coaches have been going nuts over Randle since the offseason program started -- really since he joined Eli Manning for a workout in North Carolina before the OTAs began. Many see him poised to make the leap from his first year to his second and after scoring three touchdowns on 19 catches last year, it's not tough to imagine. He's an easy late choice to make because if he struggles early you can cut him without much risk.

Missing in action

Percy Harvin and Michael Crabtree aren't expected back until Thanksgiving-ish. Justin Blackmon is suspended for the first four games. Josh Gordon is suspended for the first two games. Do these guys represent Fantasy bargains or Fantasy ripoffs?

Normally I don't want to clog valuable roster spots with players I have to wait for. In Gordon's case the wait isn't that long so I could see myself taking him (he's got some amazing potential), but for Blackmon you won't get him back until Week 5 and then a few weeks later he's on a bye. He's a late-round pick for me, nothing more. Harvin and Crabtree are expected back by late November but there's no guarantee that they will be back then or that they'll be as effective as they have been in the past. I'd much rather spend my picks on players who I can make a decision on within the first few weeks of the season than a receiver I have to wait for.

Conversely, I am the Fantasy owner who will pounce on these guys on waivers when they're two or three weeks away from returning. That's a different story -- someone else is drafting them and waiting for them. Not me. I like getting these kinds of receivers via waivers a lot better.

Get your mitts on these tiers

Tiers are created to help you on Draft Day, whether you're in a snake draft or an auction. We've grouped players with similar expectations; when you build your team you can see rather easily when a tier is disappearing. That will let you know to act fast and get one of them, or to wait on the position and pick at another spot.

Megatron Tier Elite Tier Near-Elite Tier Excellent Tier
1,500+ yards, 12+ TDs 1,300+ yards, 10+ TDs 1,250+ yards, 9+ TDs 1,000+ yards, 8+ TDs
Calvin Johnson A.J. Green Andre Johnson Marques Colston
  Dez Bryant Larry Fitzgerald Pierre Garcon
  Julio Jones Roddy White Wes Welker
  Demaryius Thomas Vincent Jackson Dwayne Bowe
  Brandon Marshall Randall Cobb Reggie Wayne
    Victor Cruz Cecil Shorts
      Eric Decker
Very Good Tier Good Tier Upside Tier Sleepers
900+ yards, 7+ TDs 900+ yards, 6+ TDs 800+ yards, 6+ TDs  
Steve Smith Jordy Nelson Kenny Britt Michael Floyd
T.Y. Hilton Tavon Austin DeSean Jackson Chris Givens
James Jones Josh Gordon Mike Wallace Golden Tate
Danny Amendola Antonio Brown Steve Johnson DeAndre Hopkins
  Mike Williams Hakeem Nicks Justin Blackmon
  Torrey Smith    

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Seahawks re-sign Demarcus Dobbs
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(4:12 pm ET) The Seahawks re-signed defensive lineman Demarcus Dobbs to a one-year contract on Sunday.

Dobbs' agent, Wesley Spencer confirmed the news on Twitter.

Dobbs joined the Seahawks in November after being waived by San Francisco. He had six tackles in four games with the Seahawks. 


C.J. Anderson enters offseason as Broncos top RB
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3:19 pm ET) Broncos coach Gary Kubiak declared that C.J. Anderson was the team's starting running back entering OTAs. 

"He made a big jump as a player, and I think he's earned the right to walk in to the offseason program -- the OTAs -- and line up as our starter," Kubiak said, per DenverBroncos.com. "But he's got to continue to earn it on a daily basis. I think he's shown he has all the ability to be an excellent starter in this league, so we're really looking forward to working with him."

Anderson rushed for 849 yards and eight touchdowns last season, most coming late in the season, after Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman went down to injury. 

"All those guys are young. I think all three of those guys ... have all kind of had their little spurts of success with the club when they've had their opportunity," Kubiak said. "But they're all young. Who's going to be the bell cow, who's going to play every down, who's going to be the three-down player, they've got to sort that out. C.J. has shown the flashes of doing that."


Erin Henderson will meet with Jets
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(2:39 pm ET) Linebacker Erin Henderson has scheduled a meeting with the Jets. Henderson is looking to reenter the NFL after sitting out last season, following his release from the Vikings.

Henderson met with the 49ers GM and coach on Thursday and also had dinner with the team's linebacker coach, his agent told the Sacramento Bee


Jared Allen tells Bears 'I'm still good, really'
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(2:12 pm ET) Bears defensive end Jared Allen met with coach John Fox and GM Ryan Pace at last week's NFL Owners' Meetings to tell them he's not on the decline. 

"I was less anxious and so much more eager to talk to them," Allen said, per NFL.com. "Just to say, 'Hey guys. I know the film from last year only shows 5.5 sacks. But don't believe that's all I have left. I'm good still. Really."

Allen also said he was willing to play a stand-up pass rushing spot instead of the hand-in-the-dirt stance he's used most of his career. "It requires you to refocus and rekindle your energy," he said. "You can't get stuck in your same old patterns."


Saints' Brian Dixon arrested for resisting officer
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(11:45 am ET) Saints cornerback Brian Dixon was arrested in Miami on Sunday morning. He's been charged with resisting an officer, per the Times-Picayune.

According to the New Orleans Advocate, Dixon was pulled over for riding a moped. He questioned the officer about why that wasn't permitted, which led to his arrest. 

Dixon was booked at 5:50 AM and was being held on $1,000 bond. The team is aware of the incident, and NFL security is investigating. 

Later in the morning, Dixon tweeted, "It hurts to know that I wasn't causing no trouble and was fully cooperating. :( "


Report: LB Desmond Bishop will visit 49ers
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/28/2015) Linebacker Desmond Bishop will visit the 49ers on Monday, according to csnbayarea.com.

Bishop played in two games for the 49ers last season after beginning the year with the Cardinals. After losing both Patrick Willis and Chris Borland to retirement, the team is looking for linebackers.

Over his eight-year NFL career, the 30-year-old has 299 total tackles, nine sacks, nine passes defensed, one interception and eight forced fumbles.


Packers want to keep RB Eddie Lacy fresh this season
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/28/2015) Packers head coach Mike McCarthy is working on ways to keep running back Eddie Lacy fresh this season, reports the Journal Sentinel.

McCarthy had talks with Lacy at the end of the last two seasons talking about his number of snaps and what he expected of the running back.

"I really felt that last year's conversation was more important than this year's, the ability to make a huge jump from Year One to Two, being a three-down player, that was something we stressed from Day One, and I thought he delivered," McCarthy said at the NFL owners meetings this week.

The head coach liked the way that the team used Lacy last season, limiting his snaps early in the year before increasing them as the season wore on.

"Maybe not run attempts," McCarthy said of hitting the target he set. "But I thought we were really smart the way we used him....I thought his pass protection he made a huge jump, and his ability to play out of the backfield.

"Eddie has excellent hands, and just his understand and his feel with Aaron, he definitely made a step."

In his first two seasons in the NFL, the 24-year-old has 2,317 yards rushing and 20 touchdowns. He has also added 77 receptions for 684 yards and four touchdown catches. 


Vikings CB Captain Munnerlyn working to earn starting spot
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/28/2015) Although Vikings cornerback Captain Munnerlyn likes the addition of Terence Newman to the team, he believes that he will beat him out for a starting job, reports twincities.com.

“I’m ready for the competition,’’ Munnerlyn told the Pioneer Press on Saturday. “I’m an athlete, so I never feel like anyone can beat me out. I feel I can hold onto the job. I’m betting on myself.’’

Munnerlyn, a six-year veteran, seems to embrace the competition that will be had at the cornerback spot.

“I think it’s great,’’ said Munnerlyn, a six-year veteran. “He’s a veteran. It’s great for competition. It will bring out the best in me. I’m excited about the competition. I just know that I’ve got to play a lot better than I did last year.’’

There have been a lot of questions this offseason as to whether or not he will settle in as the team's nickel back. He wants to shed the label of being relegated to the nickel spot.

“I don’t want that to happen,’’ Munnerlyn said. “I’ve been labeled my whole career as just a nickel back but I’ve been able to show people I’m more than that. But I know that I’ve got to work hard this offseason."
The 26-year-old has registered 343 total tackles, 5.5 sacks, 44 passes defensed, nine interceptions -- five of which were returned for touchdowns -- and three forced fumbles.

Packers still interested in signing FB John Kuhn
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/28/2015) The Packers are still interested in signing fullback John Kuhn to the roster, reports the Journal Sentinel.

When head coach Mike McCarthy was asked if Kuhn still has value, he replied, "Absolutely."

"I've always looked at the fullback and tight end position as one. I feel you have to have flexibility and versatility within those two positions. It keeps you in and out of a number of different personnel groups."

Kuhn, 32, has spent eight of his nine seasons with the Packers, rushing for 591 yards and 18 touchdowns. As a receiving option, the fullback has 76 receptions for 516 yards and eight touchdowns.


CB Lardarius Webb wants to finish career with Ravens
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/28/2015) After restructuring his contract with the Ravens, cornerback Lardarius Webb wants to finish his career with the team, according to the Baltimore Sun.

Webb recently agreed to a contract restructure that dropped his cap number from $12 million to $9.25 million.

"My goal is to retire a Raven and, while it wasn’t an easy decision, I wanted to put the team first," Webb told The Baltimore Sun. "I wanted to prove myself this year that the Ravens sticking with me was the right decision. The Ravens reached out to my agent, Marc Lillibridge, a few weeks before the scouting combine and they were talking and working hard together to get something done. I'm glad it's done."

Webb, 29, has spent his entire six-year career with the Ravens, posting 301 total tackles, two sacks, 71 passes defensed, 11 interceptions and two forced fumbles.


 
 
 
Rankings