Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2013 Draft Prep: NFC North Fantasy breakdown

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Another loaded division for Fantasy Football, the NFC North will be the subject of my second division preview.

His time is now: Randall Cobb

One of my favorite sleepers from last year is now a legit star. The best part is that his 2012 season -- which saw Cobb catch 80 passes for 954 yards (both team highs) with eight scores -- was just the tip of the iceberg. Cobb can beat you from the slot, the backfield and when split out wide and his quarterback Aaron Rodgers absolutely loves him. After all, who wouldn't love a target like Cobb, who converted a league best 76.9 percent of his targets into catches a year ago?

Play Playoff Challenge!
Player Challenge
NEW Playoff Challenge Championship Edition offers one more way to play postseason Fantasy Football and compete for cash prizes. Join now before time runs out!
Join a new league!

Cobb scored 1.38 Fantasy points per target (10th best in the NFL) and averaged 9.2 yards per target. According to Pro Football Focus, Cobb also led all wide receivers in terms of Fantasy points per snap last year, which is really remarkable for a guy seeing extended playing time for the first time in his career. Cobb can also run the ball and picked up an extra 132 yards rushing to help pad his Fantasy totals. Furthermore, Cobb is an excellent scorer who found the end zone eight times and converted 50 percent of his red zone targets into touchdowns (a very elite number). He also finished tied for fifth with nine finishes in the Top 24, was eighth with eight games of 10 or more points, and tied for ninth with eight games of six or more receptions.

In other words, Cobb is as consistent, efficient and productive as any receiver in the NFL, which is very promising for his 2013 prospects when you consider he is being counted on to be a focal point of the Green Bay attack this season. A jump from 6.9 targets per game to nine or 10 is not only very possible, but I'd say highly likely. When you consider that Rodgers says he expects Cobb to catch over 100 passes this year, you know he is in line for a target bump.

It should also be pointed out that Cobb averaged 13.2 points per game when seeing at least eight targets last year. Couple that with the fact that Cobb averaged over 11 Fantasy points per game from Week 5 on last year (a pace that would have made him the sixth ranked receiver for the year), it is clear that I might have him ranked too high at No. 10. He can do it all and is only getting better as he enters his third season. Cobb is a legit No. 1 Fantasy receiver (with even better PPR league value) who will exceed even my lofty expectations this year.

Do not sleep on Jordy Nelson, either: For the second straight season, Nelson was once again in the top three at wide receiver in terms of yards per target (10.2) and Fantasy points per target (1.6) in 2012. He will finish in the Top 15 at the wide receiver position with a full 16 game slate in 2013. You can thank me later.

Mr. PPR: Reggie Bush

Talk about a match made in heaven. Bush is one of the better pass catching backs in the NFL and he joins a Lions team that has completed 392 passes to running backs over the last four years, third most in the NFL. I mean even Joique Bell caught 52 passes for 485 yards in the Detroit offense last year, so Bush should thrive here.

After all, he still averaged a solid 7.5 yards per catch in Miami and will see a big jump in targets and receptions in Motown. Most importantly, Bush proved that he could be an every down runner during his two-year stint in Miami, where he ran for 2,172 yards and 12 touchdowns. Now, he will get to run against primarily nickel defenses (Mikel Leshoure had the second most carries versus nickel packages as a primary runner in 2012) and should get back to the 50-catch level he enjoyed in his New Orleans days. He will be a solid No. 2 runner on his yardage totals alone and has a good shot at a 1,400-plus total yardage season.

Bush won't be the team's goal line back or fourth quarter hammer, as those jobs will still belong to Leshoure. That is not surprising when you consider that Leshoure scored nine times in 2012 and punched in six of his seven goal line carries, which was the second best rate in the league. Leshoure could hit 10 touchdowns in 2013 and is going to be a Michael Turner-type of a player who can help you as a flex when he scores but will not be a big yardage producer on a consistent basis. Bush, on the other hand, should be a threat for close to 100 total yards per game and if he can throw in a few deep touchdowns, he will be a very solid No. 2 runner checking in at No. 16 at the running back position in my latest rankings.

For those of you in PPR leagues, Bush is a Top 12 running back who you should aim to steal as your second back early in the second round. The move from Miami is great for Bush's Fantasy value and it has freed up Lamar Miller to be a star as well, so this one of my favorite signings of the offseason.

Regression to the mean: James Jones

Jones led all wide receivers with 14 touchdowns in 2012 as one of every 4.5 catches he recorded resulted in a score. From 2008 to 2011, Jones averaged scoring once for every 7.8 receptions. Using his historical scoring rate, Jones would have settled in at a solid eight touchdowns last year, but not the 14 that paid the Fantasy bills. That my friends, is why 14 touchdowns on 64 catches is completely unsustainable, as is the 55 percent red zone touchdown rate (11 scores on 20 targets) that Jones posted last year.

FREE Draft Kits!
Mike Tolbert
Get everything you need to dominate on Draft Day in one convenient place with our Downloadable Draft Kit, complete with projections, rankings and outlooks for 2013!
Download your Draft Kit now!

To put his red zone scoring rate into perspective, Jones was the only receiver out of the 50 who saw at least 10 red zone targets to have a 50 percent scoring rate or better. From 2008 to 2011, Jones was targeted 37 times in the red zone and scored just eight touchdowns, which is a 21.6 percent scoring rate. In other words, it is a lock that Jones will see his touchdown total drop significantly in 2013. Taking that -- along with the fact that Jones produced 60 yards receiving in just four games last year -- and there are plenty of reasons to avoid Jones at his current ADP as the 22nd receiver taken because he will not provide the consistency you want from your No. 2 receiver. He is an excellent No. 3 wide receiver for your team, but you must be ready for some down weeks when he does not score, which will happen much more often this season.

Ready to explode: Jay Cutler

Cutler has only thrown more than 500 passes twice in his career, which is amazing when you consider that 18 quarterbacks alone did it in 2012. In those two seasons, Cutler averaged throwing for 4,046 yards and 26 touchdowns, which would make him a Top 12 level Fantasy quarterback when you add in his 200 yards rushing.

Unfortunately seasons like those are a distant memory, as Cutler's Bears have ranked in the bottom six in pass attempts per game in each of the last three years. That will change under Marc Trestman, who likes to throw the ball at least 35 times per game. In case you were wondering, Cutler averaged just 28.9 attempts per game last year, so we are talking about a major increase. At Cutler's career average of 7.2 yards per attempt, we are talking about another 44 yards per game of passing, which translates to another 704 yards per year. For Cutler, a season of 35 attempts per game would put him over 4,000 yards for the first time since becoming a Bear back in 2009.

Making matters better for his Fantasy prospects is that Cutler will have his best group of pass catchers perhaps ever with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Earl Bennett, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte out of the backfield. The Bears finally got a left tackle to protect Cutler's backside and then there is the matter of the all-important dollar. Cutler is in a contract year and there will be no negotiations until after the season, so he has the chance to have a big year and make a lot of coin.

Cutler is finally in a quarterback friendly system, has the right supporting cast and will be supremely motivated. Cutler is inching towards my Top 12 at the quarterback position and currently sits 14th behind Russell Wilson (12th) and Eli Manning (13th). He could very easily leapfrog those guys as we get closer to Draft Day because I really believe that he will be in a system that will capitalize on his natural abilities for the first time since 2008, when he was a Top 5 Fantasy quarterback.

Thank you Mr. Trestman, I'll have another. Matt Forte who will catch at least 60 passes and threaten 2,000 total yards under Trestman. Running backs accounted for nearly 30 percent of the completions for Trestman offenses in his past stints in the NFL, making this a perfect offense for Forte's skills. Don't forget that in his best season, Forte caught 63 passes and scored four receiving touchdowns. Forte will be pulled at the goal line for Michael Bush (and he should be), but he will be amongst the league leaders in total yards and is a solid late No. 1 running back in PPR leagues and a great No. 2 in standard formats.

The yards are there and the touchdowns will come: Matthew Stafford

Stafford has thrown for 9,971 yards (third most in NFL history for a two year period) and has attempted an NFL record 1,371 passes the past two seasons! He plays in the most pass-happy offense in the NFL and that is not changing any time soon. Adding Reggie Bush to the mix will only help Stafford's passing game and another season of near 5,000 yards is certainly possible. In fact, anything is possible when your top wide receiver is that Calvin Johnson character.

Check out our Fantasy Football podcast!
There is no better source for entertaining Fantasy advice than our Fantasy Football Today podcast. Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Adam Aizer will help you pass the time as you anticipate Draft Day 2014!
Latest episode | Subscribe today!

The reason Stafford fell from the fourth ranked quarterback in 2011 when he threw for 5,038 yards to the 11th ranked quarterback in 2012 when he threw for 4,967 yards was in a word, touchdowns. In 2011, Stafford threw for 41 scores with 16 interceptions. Last year, that number fell to 20 scores with 17 interceptions and Stafford tumbled in the rankings. Yardage is much easier to predict than touchdowns (see his 2011 and 2012 seasons) and I feel comfortable saying that his yardage totals will be among the league leaders once again in 2013. I also feel comfortable assuring you that his scores will normalize in 2013 to over 30. After all, Stafford had his receivers tackled inside the five yard line 23 times and at the one yard line five times, both the most in the NFL.

If Stafford just got to 30 scores in 2012, he would have been the fifth-ranked Fantasy quarterback. Another season of 40 scores and he would have trailed Drew Brees by just two points for the entire year and he would have finished No. 2 overall. I am willing to bet on a 30-touchdown season from Stafford in 2013 and he is firmly entrenched in the fifth spot in my quarterback rankings. With an ADP as the seventh quarterback taken, Stafford is a great value and more proof that you can wait on a quarterback and score big this year.

Quick hit sleepers

Ryan Broyles, WR, Lions: Broyles is reportedly ahead of schedule after suffering an ACL tear last year and is a good bet to be the second receiver on the Lions when healthy. I know he has torn both ACLs but so did Frank Gore, and that was way before ACL recoveries became as quick and complete as they have in recent years. When on the field last year, Broyles was phenomenal, catching 68.8 percent of his targets and leading the Lions in yards per target (9.7) and Fantasy points per target (1.34). That's right, he bested the great Calvin Johnson in both metrics last year while chipping in 10 or more Fantasy points in three of his last six games. In his most extensive action of the season, Broyles caught six passes for 126 yards against the Texans in a Turkey Day shootout. He also had a solid 40 percent red zone touchdown rate, so he could hit seven touchdowns in a full season.

Grab him late in your drafts and you will be getting a high upside bargain who has Top 24 potential, especially in PPR leagues.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears: Jeffery has reportedly been a dominant force in Bears camp after a solid rookie season that was marred by some injuries and a slow adjustment to the NFL game. Jeffery did lead the Bears with a 15.3 yards per catch average and was also tops at 1.14 Fantasy points per target. Jeffery must improve on his 50 percent catch rate and his 7.6 yards per target average if he is going to take a major leap, but those are both possible working opposite Brandon Marshall in a more pass-friendly offense. Jeffrey is a solid late-round flier who is likely to be more valuable in standard leagues than in PPR formats.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers: Finley is quietly flying under the radar in 2013 after disappointing Fantasy owners in 2012. However, there are definite signs of improvement to hang your hat on when targeting Finley as your starter late on Draft Day. Last year, Finley caught 71 percent of his targets (up from 55 percent in 2011) and averaged a very healthy 7.8 yards per target. However, his Fantasy value was torpedoed by only scoring two touchdowns, well below the 6.5 he had averaged in his prior two full seasons. That being said, Finley got better as the year went on and from Week 11 on, he was the eighth-ranked Fantasy tight end despite scoring just one touchdown. In those final seven games, Finley was third amongst tight ends with 396 yards, averaged 9.7 yards per target and saw a very healthy six targets per game. He produced at least 60 yards receiving five times and was below 50 yards just once. The scores will come and I think Finley will continue his late season run into the 2013 season, making him an absolute steal as the 11th tight end taken. He is sixth on my board with upside on that spot.

Other sleepers: Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears; Johnathan Franklin, RB, Packers; Jarius Wright, WR, Vikings; Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings

Just a quick fact on Eddie Lacy

The Packers are dead last in the NFL with 12 tailback rushing touchdowns (excludes fullback John Kuhn) over the last three seasons. That is all. Carry on.

You couldn't pay me to draft Greg Jennings this year

Jennings made a fool of himself trashing Aaron Rodgers this offseason and he will make a fool of you if you are counting on a solid Fantasy season from him in 2013.

Let's be honest here, Jennings is getting up in age and has not played 14 games or reached 1,000 yards receiving in two straight years. At quarterback, Jennings is going from Rodgers, who has averaged nearly 4,500 yards, 42 touchdowns, 67.5 percent completions and 8.5 yards per attempt over the last two years, to Christian Ponder. Ponder averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt last year, worst among all quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. He also attempted the fewest passes of 20 yards or more in the NFL and averaged throwing the ball 6.7 air yards per pass last year, also lowest in the NFL. Factor in that Jennings had the worst yards per target differential of any receiver in the league in 2012 (-1.9) and you can't be too excited about the move.

After all, Minnesota has not had an outside receiver hit the 500-yard or four-touchdown mark since Sidney Rice did it with Brett Favre at quarterback back in 2009. To be truly effective, Jennings will have to play in the slot or make big plays out of short passes, the latter of which is not his strong suit. Jennings will be the clear No. 1 option in the passing game for the Vikings, but I am skeptical of his overall production for 2013 and is not someone I will be drafting.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Nathan at @nathanzegura .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Zimmer happy with progress of Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:32 pm ET) Mike Zimmer has expressed optimism that underachieving Vikings wideout Cordarrelle Patterson is gaining a better understanding of route-running and the nuances of playing the position in the NFL, which would allow his talent to result in greater productivity.

Patterson took a step back in 2014 after a mediocre rookie year. He played in every game, but managed just 33 receptions for 384 yards and one touchdown. He has since stated that 2015 is his make-or-break year and is apparently acting like it in the offseason.

"He's done real well," Zimmer told Fox Sports North. "He's running routes good. He's working hard. So we just need him to continue to do those things and continue to keep getting consistent and keep improving. I've been impressed."


GM: Dolphins LT Branden Albert should be fine for Week 1
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:22 pm ET) Dolphins general manager Dennis Hickey has expressed optimism that left tackle Branden Albert will be ready to roll by the regular season opener.

Albert has been rehabbing from a torn ACL and MCL sustained last November against Detroit. He had signed a five-year, $46 million contract the previous March and had been performing particularly well before going down.

"It's been a long rehab and he's really attacked it every day," Hickey told SiriusXM NFL Radio, adding that there was a "reasonable explanation" that he would be ready for Week 1. "We really like his progress. He's out there with his team working out. We're really encouraged by what we're seeing with him."

Ja'Wuan Williams was forced to move to left tackle following the Albert injury in 2014. But he struggled at that position and is expected to move to his more familiar right tackle spot this year.


Report: Bills still want to extend Marcell Dareus
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(1:15 pm ET) The Bills still want to extend the contract of defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, according to a report by NFL Network's Ian Rapoport

Despite the one-game suspension levied by the league against Dareus on Thursday, the team still hopes to have an extension wrapped up before the start of training camp. 

2015 is scheduled to be the last season of Dareus' current contract. He'll make $8.06 million.


Shanahan: Struggles of Robert Griffin III unrelated to injury
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:13 pm ET) Former Redskins coach Mike Shanahan does not believe injuries have prevented quarterback Robert Griffin III from maximizing his potential in the NFL. Rather, he feels it was the team not creating an offensive system that best fits his talents and his own belief that he could play a traditional role at that position.

Griffin sustained a serious knee injury in the 2012 playoffs. He then struggled in 2013 in an offense designed to transform him into a drop-back quarterback rather than one that took advantage of his mobility. He suffered another knee injury last year and did not perform well in the offense of new coach Jay Gruden.

"I don't think getting hurt has anything to do with it," Shanahan told 106.7 The Fan. "In college he didn't have a route tree, didn't have a playbook. That does take some time. ... If you take a quarterback like that you must run the kind of system that allows him to be successful. ... I really believe Robert thought he was more of a drop-back quarterback. He hasn't done things the NFL asks you to do. It does take some growing pains. You better really work on it inside and out."

Some have wondered why the Redskins went so hard after Griffin if they weren't willing to create an offense that maximizes his skill set.


Sheldon Richardson not at Jets' OTAs because 'I have a life'
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(1:05 pm ET) Jets defensive end Sheldon Richardson is skipping the team's OTAs this week, a decision that earned him criticism from fans and media. 

Richardson's explanation isn't likely to win anyone over. 

Richardson went on Twitter and told fans he missed the workouts because, "I have a life outside of football."

"I chose to enjoy my family a little longer," he continued. "So to (you) fans that know everything, please worry 'bout yourself."

Richardson pointed out in another tweet that he "jus' wasn't at practice," but that he was still "putting in work tho'"


Jaguars relying on young WRs Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:54 pm ET) The Jaguars will be young at wide receiver this year, but that doesn't concern the team. 

The Jaguars don't have a receiver with more than 59 career receptions on the roster. The team is relying heavily on a trio of second-year players in Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson

"Those guys all had 40-some catches," general manager David Caldwell said, per ESPN. "It’s not like they didn’t produce at all or missed a whole year. They did some good things ... They’re no longer young guys. They have to be our veterans."


Raiders sign draft pick Neiron Ball
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:46 pm ET) The Raiders signed their fifth-round draft pick, Neiron Ball , the team announced

Ball is a linebacker out of Florida. With his signing, the Raiders have seven of their 10 picks from the 2015 draft under contract. 


Eagles DB Maxwell: 'We're going to do big things here'
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(12:45 pm ET) Byron Maxwell knows what it takes to win big. He won a Super Bowl ring with the Seahawks two seasons ago and was one play away from winning a second last year.

Maxwell wants to continue his tradition of winning with the Eagles. The Eagles signed Maxwell to a six-year, $60 million contract this offseason in hopes he can help get them to the playoffs.

"I'm starting to get adjusted to Philadelphia. I love this city. I love the people around here. It's cool," Maxwell said. "I think we're going to do big things around here." "I'm starting to get adjusted to Philadelphia. I love this city. I love the people around here. It's cool," Maxwell said. "I think we're going to do big things around here."

Maxwell recorded 39 tackles and two interceptions in 13 games played last season. And though he just got a huge contract, he still motivated to getting that second Super Bowl ring.

"I'm more addicted to that feeling of getting another one. Winning is addicting. The fun is in the winning. I'm chasing after that," Maxwell said. "I'm excited about the season."


Colts' Phillip Dorsett has impressed at team OTA's
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(12:28 pm ET) Rookie wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is not experiencing any rookie blues early on with the Colts, per ESPN.com.

The first-round pick out of the University of Miami wrapped up an impressive week of organized team activities, leaving a good impression on his veteran teammates.

"It's definitely not too big for him," quarterback Andrew Luck said about the receiver. "He fits in very, very well."

Dorsett averaged more than 24 yards per catch during his last season as a Hurricane, a stat that if he maintains as a Colt will get him on the field despite a talented group of receivers.

"I feel like I'm getting it pretty well," he said. "I came from a pro-style offense with a lot of concepts in college. It's basically the same concepts just different names. There's a lot more verbiage and differently terminology. So it's something that you just have to learn and get used to it."


After emergency surgery, Jets' Rontez Miles optimistic for another shot
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(12:15 pm ET) Jets safety Rontez Miles is lucky to have another chance in the NFL. A freak injury last season almost took this opportunity away, per ESPN.com.

Just before Miles was to make his 2014 debut last December, he suffered what appeared to be a basic calf bruise after a collision with teammate Marcus Williams. He soon realized this was no regular injury. Miles developed compartment syndrome, meaning the blood flow to his calf was restricted because of a buildup of pressure.

Miles was rushed to a hospital and underwent emergency surgery.

"It could've been amputated or the muscle could've been destroyed," Miles said after Wednesday's organized team activities. "It could've been a couple of months or a year or so of recovery, and it would've been hard to come back from that."

Miles has been fighting for a spot on the Jets' roster for the better part of two years. He played in one game in 2013 and was ready for another chance last season before his freak injury. His goal will be even harder now because the safety position is now very crowded, but that won't deter Miles.

"Hey, I can't complain," Miles said. "I'm here and I'm playing football."


 
 
 
Rankings