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2013 Draft Prep: Breakouts for Draft Day

Senior Fantasy Writer
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When you think of a Fantasy breakout, think big. Think career bests. Think massive Fantasy points.

That's what comes to mind when I think of a breakout. Everyone wants to get great players on their teams but it's paydirt when you get a great player having one of his best, if not his very best, seasons.

What are the tell-tale signs of a breakout? Look for players who did well toward the end of the past season, or started last season well but trailed off because of circumstances beyond his control. Some players that have changed teams are also breakout candidates as are those who are getting an opportunity because a teammate has moved on to another roster or because a coach with a certain tendency gives a guy a chance.

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Last year I'd say my results were mixed. I did better with my "off the radar" breakouts than I did my actual breakouts. Maybe the lesson learned is to find the deeper breakouts and go with them instead.

So that's the plan -- absolutely none of my 2013 breakouts are Top 40 picks based on the draft averages as of this writing. No obvious recommendations. That should not only make for some interesting options but also some interesting picks for you to consider once the "easy rounds" are done.

Note: Originally on this list was Steelers rookie running Le'Veon Bell. Since then he's tweaked his knee and suffered a Lisfranc foot injury. He's no longer a breakout candidate.

Sam Bradford, QB, Rams: The front office and coaching staff came together in St. Louis this offseason and changed the face of the offense. They kind of had to once Steven Jackson elected to test free agency. By letting Jackson go and finding talent to surround Bradford, they essentially placed their bet on the fourth-year quarterback leading the way. Jared Cook was signed in free agency and Tavon Austin was drafted in the first round. Those guys couldn't be farther apart in terms of body types but they're extremely similar in terms of being matchup nightmares for every defense the Rams face. Cook should be the security blanket Danny Amendola couldn't stay healthy enough to be and Austin could be a Percy Harvin-esque target for Bradford to hit over and over again. Throw in speedster Chris Givens and another unique body type in Brian Quick and suddenly Bradford is loaded with receivers to lean on. Best of all, the Rams improved their offensive line with the addition of Jake Long and don't have a firm solution for replacing Jackson at running back. Bradford should set a career-high in pass attempts and in turn should end up with career-high statistics. I love him as a blue chip No. 2 Fantasy quarterback.
I'd take him over: Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts: True, Luck broke out in every sense of the term as a rookie last season but it doesn't mean there's no room for improvement. Luck's 54.1 completion percentage, 23-to-18 touchdown-interception ratio and 6.98 yards per attempt average all have room to grow and should do exactly that in the Colts' new offensive scheme. Usually when a playbook changes there are growing pains, but Luck has already grown up in the playbook Pep Hamilton has brought to the team from Stanford, where the two worked together previously. But what's even better about Luck's situation is the continuity in who he's playing with. Four of the top five receivers in the Colts offense are back to help Luck along in his second season with only Donnie Avery gone and Darrius Heyward-Bey replacing him. That additional layer of familiarity will only keep him from regressing. But Luck could really benefit from the team not doing a great job of finding running backs to supplement the passing game. That'll put the ball in Luck's hands more, making for a more pass-happy unit that should yield some very good stats across the board. This might not be Luck's best year, but it'll be an improvement from 2012. Bank on him in Round 6 or later.
I'd take him over: Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick

Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams: While I like Zac Stacy as a sleeper in the Rams' backfield, it's Richardson who should be the most consistent. The Rams are going to look quite different than in the past with Bradford leading the way. A more pass-oriented offense should result in more work for Richardson, who is good enough as a pass protector and fine as a receiver. If he were to start out serving as just the receiving-downs back, Richardson would see a good amount of playing time and probably sneak in a surprising amount of carries with a good reception total. But he stands to get more than that after coach Jeff Fisher admitted that Richardson was the leader in the clubhouse to start in early August. It's likely he'll have to split the workload -- his reps got lighter as he got older in college -- but at the very least he's in that same range as other backs with quickness and good hands. The closer you can get him to Round 7, the better.
I'd take him over: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ben Tate, Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas

Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots: Maybe this one is obvious to you, maybe it isn't. Maybe you see Stevan Ridley as the Patriots' primary running back and don't think they have room for two guys. Among 485 carries by running backs, Ridley ran the ball 290 times. That left 195 carries for other backs, with Vereen and Danny Woodhead totaling 138 of them. That workload will obviously be gobbled up by Vereen in 2013 with Woodhead moving on to San Diego. But Vereen will also make an impact as a receiver, giving the Patriots a much-desired versatile matchup threat. Vereen had only eight catches last season but Woodhead had 40. Vereen is really the only pass-catching running back on the New England roster, so he should see his fair share of work on passing downs. Vereen would be on par with capable No. 3 Fantasy rushers if he totaled 150 touches and maintained strong averages across the board. It took me a little while to come around on Vereen but he'll have a good chance to help Fantasy owners out (he'd get the motherload if Ridley came down with fumbilitis or otherwise missed time, too).
I'd take him over: Ryan Mathews, Ahmad Bradshaw, Eddie Lacy

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Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars: I really liked what I saw from Shorts last season. Whether it was him taking a pass down the seam from Blaine Gabbert to the house or racking up six-plus grabs in a game, Shorts was productive. In 14 games he had 10 or more Fantasy points nine times, making him the third-most consistent receiver percentage-wise in Fantasy last year behind Calvin Johnson and Percy Harvin. Here's the silly part: He finished second on the Jaguars in targets with 106 (Justin Blackmon led the way). The Jaguars' passers are going to target Shorts over and over this season just as they did when he averaged 9.5 targets per game in his final nine. He did suffer a concussion last year that might be a little worrisome as is a calf strain that sidelined him in early August, but other than that there's nothing to not like about the speedy third-year receiver. I'm comfortable with him as my No. 2 Fantasy receiver.
I'd take him over: Steve Smith, Torrey Smith and Mike Wallace

James Jones, WR, Packers: All Jones did last year was lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns while playing on just over 90 percent of the snaps on one of the most prolific passing teams in football. On the way there he also posted career-highs in catches with 64 and yards with 784. He also had nine games with 10-plus Fantasy points. Everyone points to his red zone stats and believes he can't do it again (12 touchdowns on 15 red-zone catches including the playoffs). I say why not? Everyone looks at the lack of targets he had despite his playing time and scoffs at his upside. I say it's room for him to improve -- if he did only that well last season with all that playing time, maybe he can do more with more opportunity. He should certainly do better than the career-low 12.3 receiving average he had in 2012 (his previous low was 13.6). Opportunity will come his way early in the season with oft-injured receiver Jordy Nelson coming back from a knee procedure. It's going to be Jones, not Nelson, who will finish behind Randall Cobb as the Packers' second-best receiver in 2013. He's motivated to reach the 1,000-yard mark just in time for free agency in March, his quarterback knows what he can do and when defenses play against the Packers and their myriad of weapons week after week, it'll be Jones who will see single coverage the most often. You'll be sorry if you don't get him by the end of Round 7.
I'd take him over: Hakeem Nicks, Danny Amendola, Jordy Nelson

Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks: Tate had plenty of chances to wow us in 2012. A fateful Hail Mary "catch" on Monday Night Football may be what you know him best for but he narrowly fell short of being Seattle's top Fantasy receiver. This year he'll take the title, though he got help when newcomer Percy Harvin had hip surgery in the early days of training camp. Tate has pieced together an amazing camp so far and is working hard to be the No. 1 receiver for the Seahawks with Harvin out, Sidney Rice struggling with his knee and no one else really taking a big step forward. He finished with 45 catches for 688 yards and seven scores last year but had just 80 targets including the postseason, catching 68.8 percent of them. That's pretty awesome. Tate isn't quite the total receiver package but he's developed reliable hands to go with deep speed in an offense that should hit its stride with Russell Wilson entering his second year. Tate is a great mid-round pickup.
I'd take him over: Greg Jennings, Lance Moore, Denarius Moore

Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers: If Fantasy Football was about headliners and superstars, Williams wouldn't be drafted. But it's about stats and Williams has proven he can create those. Williams has reeled in 63 to 65 catches in each of his first three seasons, getting over 950 yards and nine touchdowns twice. He admitted that his down year in 2011 was because of poor habits off the field. The rebound he had in 2012 playing opposite Vincent Jackson was refreshing, so much so that the team gave him a contract extension before training camp. He's locked into his role on a team with playoff aspirations and a not-so-tough schedule. Finishing as a Top 20 receiver -- which he's done in his two strong seasons already -- shouldn't be a big surprise. Seeing him fall into your lap in Round 7 or beyond should be a surprise, albeit a welcome one.
I'd take him over: DeSean Jackson, Steve Johnson, Mike Wallace

Jared Cook, TE, Rams: Cook is getting the Cinderella treatment in St. Louis, where Fairy Godmother Jeff Fisher whisked him away from the Titans' evil castle and brought him into 150-target territory with Sam Bradford. Fine, I've been watching too many Disney movies with the kids but I am sincere in my courting of Cook as a Top 6 Fantasy tight end. Every single report out of St. Louis talks about how Cook has replaced Danny Amendola as Bradford's security blanket and how the Rams intend to use Cook as a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. He's going to line up anywhere and use his 6-foot-5, 248-pound frame to battle smaller and slower defenders. Cook has never had more than four touchdowns, 49 catches, 81 targets or 759 yards in a season. He's going to eclipse every number in the Rams' new-look spread offense while receiving footballs from the best passer he's ever worked with in the pros. Bypass the familiar tight end names on Draft Day and take a chance on Cook in Round 8.
I'd take him over: Kyle Rudolph, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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Player News
Bucs QB Mike Glennon on the move?
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(11:03 am ET) With the Buccaneers holding the No. 1 overall draft pick, the team has its choice of quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. The Tampa Tribune says "some around the league" believe other teams will try to trade for quarterback Mike Glennon, and that Glennon could net the Bucs a fourth- or fifth-round pick.

Glennon played in six games this season, throwing for 1,417 yards and 10 touchdowns with six interceptions. The team's refusal to play Glennon "even after their slim playoff hopes faded" has many observers believing the Bucs are ready to move on from him, the paper said.


Lions see plenty of upside in WR Corey Fuller
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(10:38 am ET) The Lions are looking for a solid No. 3 receiver to supplement Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, and converted track star Corey Fuller could be the guy, reports the team's website. Fuller was Johnson's backup in 2014 and played in some multi-receiver sets, catching 14 passes for 212 yards and a touchdown.

“I think I had a big improvement coming in from last year to this year,” said Fuller, a sixth-round pick in the 2013 draft. “If I just keep on progressing, who knows where I can go.”

Fuller, who brings a unique combination of speed and strength, said his main focus this offseason is improving his route running.

“The whole (route) tree,” he said. “Being able to expand the routes they throw me.”


Steelers not expected to re-sign Ike Taylor
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(9:55 am ET) The Steelers likely won't re-sign impending free agent cornerback Ike Taylor, reports ESPN.com. Taylor, 34, dealt with multiple injuries this season and finished with 16 tackles in five games.

Taylor has spent his entire 12-year career with Pittsburgh. He said this month he's OK with 2014 being his last season.


Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart looking to build off strong finish
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(9:37 am ET) Over the last five weeks of the regular season, Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart rushed for 486 yards, second only to Dallas' DeMarco Murray. Stewart followed that up with 123 yards and a touchdown in the playoff win over Arizona.

"I'm really excited for next year," Stewart told the team's website. "You have to find your zone throughout the offseason. It starts now."

Stewart got the chance to be a workhorse when DeAngelo Williams fractured his hand Week 13. ESPN.com reports there's a "strong possibility" the Panthers will release the 31-year-old Williams this offseason, leaving Stewart, 27, as the unquestioned starter.

"It's just part of the journey," Stewart said of the individual success he had toward season's end. "The moment you start focusing on that, you miss out on other things along the journey."


Report: Patriots hoping to sign Darrelle Revis to long-term extension
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) The Patriots are reportedly looking to sign cornerback Darrelle Revis to a long-term extension, according Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network.

However, New England has not ruled out paying Revis the $20 million team option in 2015, Rapoport reports. The decision needs to be made by April 1, when a $12 million roster bonus kicks in for Revis.

Revis totaled 47 tackles in 16 games for the Patriots, grabbing two interceptions and forcing one fumble.


C.J. Spiller expecting 'March Madness' style free agency
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) Bills running back C.J. Spiller is getting healthy again. Spiller, who has fully recovered from a shoulder injury, just ended the final season of his contract and is looking at his options for next season.

"Physically, I’m back to 100 percent, back to doing normal activities," Spiller told The Post and Courier on Friday. "As far as football, free agency will start in March, and I’ll get with my people next week and get a game plan together."

Spiller has played five seasons for the Bills, only playing two full years. He ran for 1,244 yards in 2012 with six touchdowns.

"I guess you could say it’ll be March Madness," Spiller said with a smile. "It’ll be a fun March."


Report: Rams among teams interested in trade for Eagles' Foles
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) Teams are beginning to show interest in Eagles quarterback Nick Foles, as reports are surfacing Philadelphia is unsure of what to do with the third-year quarterback, per NJ.com. A source said the Rams have interest in Foles should the Eagles choose to trade him this offseason. 

The Titans and Texans have also been mentioned as teams that would have interest in Foles, if he hits the trade market.

It's still unclear if the Eagles would be willing to move Foles. NJ.com reported last week the Eagles, who have the 20th pick in the NFL Draft, are considering making a run at Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota in the draft. 

"From No. 20, it's certainly not going to be easy,'' a source said. "It's probably going to take moving up twice to do it. There's going to be some wheeling and dealing involved.

"Can it happen? I don't know. But they're going to try."

Eagles head coach Chip Kelly recruited Mariota to Oregon and coached him for two years.

"Obviously, [with] my relationship with coach Kelly, it'd be a lot of fun to be a part of that offense and be a part of that team," Mariota said when asked about a potential reunion with Kelly.

Foles is 15-9 as a starter in the NFL, but he has yet to play a full season. He has completed 61.6 percent of his passes for 6,753 yards, 46 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.


Colts' Luck on new contract: 'There's nothing there right now'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) An ESPN report surfaced last week stating the Colts were working on making quarterback Andrew Luck the highest-paid player in the NFL. When asked about the subject at the Pro Bowl, Luck seemed surprise when he heard the news.

"There's nothing there right now," Luck said, per The Indianapolis Star. "I didn't think about it all during the season and it's only been a few days since it ended. I haven't thought about it. I will have conversations with my agent just because you have to prepare, but I'm not sure where that report came from."

Luck has two years remaining on the $22 million deal he signed as a rookie in 2012. It includes a team option for 2016, which must be exercised later this year.

Luck just completed his third season in the NFL. He has been to the Pro Bowl every year he's been in the NFL. He's gone 11-5 in every season as an NFL starter. He threw for a career-best 40 touchdowns in 2014 and led Indianapolis to the AFC title game this season.


Seahawks' Sherman disappointed he won't receive gifts from Pro Bowl
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) In case you missed Sunday's Pro Bowl, Team Irvin knocked off Team Carter, 32-28, thanks to a second-half rally, which included touchdown catches by Emmanuel Sanders and Jimmy Graham.

While many Pro Bowl players that made the original roster were absent from the game due to injuries, Pro Bowl players from the Patriots and Seahawks also did not play due to preparations for next Sunday's Super Bowl.

One player who seemed upset about missing the Pro Bowl was Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman. However, it was for a reason you probably wouldn't suspect.

“Only thing I’m disappointed in is they won’t give us our gifts from the Pro Bowl, which is kind of dumb,” Sherman said, per The Boston Globe. “The NFL is the only league that punishes the players who actually make the All-Star game by not giving them their gifts. It’s supposed to be watches and some other stuff, but we don’t get them so I couldn’t tell you.”


Patriots' Tom Brady on Deflategate: 'My feelings got hurt'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/26/2015) If you have been out of the loop for the last week, then you might be unaware the Patriots have been under a lot of scrutiny since the AFC title game due to improperly inflated footballs used against the Colts. The media hoopla has transformed the controversy into what we know as Deflategate.

If you haven't been out of the loop, then you are well aware of the nonstop coverage it has received the last week and despite the Patriots pleas for it to go away, it just won't.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has had to deal with the backlash from Deflategate, and he found himself talking about the subject again Monday morning during an interview with WEEI.

“It’s all speculation,” Brady said. “I’ve tried to wrap my head around it, too. I’ve done that and I’m trying to move past that, because I continue to try to rehash things. I personalized a lot of things and thought this was all about me, and my feelings got hurt. Then I moved past it, because it’s not serving me. What’s serving me is try to prepare for the game ahead. I’ll deal with whatever happens later. I’ll have my opportunity to try to figure out what happened and figure out a theory like everyone else is trying to do. But this isn’t the time for that. Honestly, I’m not interested in trying to find out right now, because we have the biggest game of our season ahead.”

One topic Brady didn't have a problem addressing was the speculation coach Bill Belichick threw him under the bus during a press conference on Thursday. But Brady came to the defense of Belichick, who has won three Super Bowls as the Patriots coach.

“I’ve never once felt that we’re not on the same page,” Brady said. “He’s a great coach. He’s the only coach I’ve ever played for; he’s the only coach I’d ever want to play for. There’s a lot of people over the years that have criticized him, but I’d say there’s not one player who’s ever played for him who’s not had an unbelievable amount of respect for him and how he prepares and his diligence and his preparation."


 
 
 
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