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2013 Draft Prep: Early draft trends

Senior Fantasy Writer
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In 2012, there were five quarterbacks drafted on average in the first round with Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton. Thankfully, things have changed this season.

This year, Brees is the only quarterback being selected in the first round. Fantasy owners realize the importance of running backs, and that is reflected in the current Average Draft Position data on CBSSports.com.

What we're doing here is a weekly series looking at ADP. We're starting with the data at the start of the preseason games, and we want to see what changes each week leading up to the regular season.

Along with our rankings, projections, updates and mock drafts, you should rely on ADP heading into your Draft Day. Public perception is useful information that should help in your preparation because it gives you an idea where you might find a certain player in the right round.

The first round looks like this ...

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1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
2. Arian Foster, RB, Texans
3. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers
4. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
5. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
6. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills
7. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns
8. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
9. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
10. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
11. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
12. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins

There is no surprise with the No. 1 overall pick since Peterson is a slam dunk given his performance last season. In standard and PPR formats you should see Peterson go in that spot in all leagues. The only format where Peterson might not go No. 1 overall is two-quarterback leagues, but even then you can make an argument that Peterson is still the best player on the board.

After Peterson is where things could get interesting. Foster would make the most sense if he was healthy, but he's dealt with a calf injury at the start of training camp. There are also concerns about his wear and tear after averaging over 370 touches the past three years. I consider him a Top 5 overall player, but I would not take him at No. 2. Charles, Martin and Spiller are all worthy candidates, and that should be the Top 5. Lynch is in the mix also, but I consider him the No. 6 overall player.

The next group of running backs is also a spot where Fantasy owners will have to make a decision because McCoy, Richardson and Rice can go in any order. I have them ranked Richardson, McCoy and Rice, but I have no problem with any of these options.

Johnson at No. 8 is where he should enter the equation as the No. 1 overall receiver, but he can go as early as No. 5 in PPR leagues. You could also see Jimmy Graham in the first round in PPR formats.

Brees or any other quarterback should not be drafted in Round 1 based on the depth at the position compared to running backs, and we'd rather see Morris at No. 11 and then another running back like Matt Forte, Steven Jackson or Stevan Ridley drafted at No. 12.

Quarterback breakdown

The Brady factor: Brady is missing his Top 4 targets from last year with Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and Danny Woodhead out of New England, and Rob Gronkowski (back) is hurt. But he's still being drafted as a Top 5 quarterback in Round 4.

It's fine if you still value Brady as an elite Fantasy option this year because he is, but I would draft him after Matt Ryan, who is going later in the fourth round. You could also make an argument that Brady should be drafted after Stafford, who is being selected in the early part of Round 5.

What to do with Luck, RG3, Kaepernick, Romo, Wilson and Eli: After you get past Stafford in Round 5 you get to the group of quarterbacks that could make or break your season in Andrew Luck (No. 59 overall), Robert Griffin III (No. 64), Colin Kaepernick (No. 66), Tony Romo (No. 68), Russell Wilson (No. 73) and Eli Manning (No. 88). I have them ranked Griffin, Romo, Luck, Manning, Kaepernick and Wilson.

Griffin's ADP could easily rise with continued positive reports in his comeback from last year's torn ACL, and I like Romo after him. He's the most underrated quarterback of this group. Kaepernick and Wilson are risky after losing top targets in Michael Crabtree (Achilles) and Percy Harvin (hip), respectively. And Manning has the chance to rebound after last year's down season, especially if Hakeem Nicks can stay healthy and Rueben Randle can improve.

Backups to covet: My favorite backup quarterbacks this season are Andy Dalton (No. 118), Jay Cutler (No. 122), Sam Bradford (No. 135), Alex Smith (No. 137), Carson Palmer (No. 153) and EJ Manuel (No ADP data).

Dalton has proven to be a quality Fantasy quarterback the past two seasons and gets new weapons in Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard. Cutler gets an upgrade in system with coach Marc Trestman, and he also gets a new toy in Martellus Bennett.

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Bradford should continue to improve, and he has a revamped receiving corps led by Tavon Austin, Jared Cook and Chris Givens. Smith will play for the pass-happy Andy Reid, and Palmer could thrive with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd in Bruce Arians' offense.

Manuel is a wild card because he isn't even guaranteed a starting job in Buffalo, but we love his upside and is worth a late-round gamble in deeper leagues.

Running back breakdown

Is MJD worthy of a second-round pick? Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew is coming off a lost season in 2012 due to a Lisfranc injury. So far, all reports have been positive in his comeback, and he's being drafted in the second round at No. 21 overall.

I originally called Jones-Drew an early bust, but I'm going to remove him from that list. When healthy, Jones-Drew is easily a Top 15 running back, and his ADP is a fair reflection of his value.

Rookie report: The rookie running backs will get plenty of attention, and their ADP is Le'Veon Bell at No. 43, Montee Ball at No. 45, Eddie Lacy at No. 61 and Bernard at No. 71. Bell and Ball are going at the right spot in Round 4, but Lacy and Bernard should see their ADP rise.

Lacy will move into the fifth round, especially if he can solidify himself as the starter. And Bernard will also move up if he has a strong preseason and continues to impress on HBO's Hard Knocks

Guys who will rise: Our ADP data has been accumulating for several weeks, so preseason risers aren't necessarily reflected in this data. Some guys who will move up from their current spots include Ronnie Hillman (No. 103), Daryl Richardson (No. 106), DeAngelo Williams (No. 111), Vick Ballard (No. 115) and Pierre Thomas (No. 120). Two other running backs not showing up in ADP who could get drafted are Lance Dunbar, who should be the handcuff to DeMarco Murray in Dallas, and Christine Michael, who should be the handcuff to Marshawn Lynch in Seattle.

Of that group, look for Hillman, Richardson and Williams to have a dramatic rise, especially if they lock up starting jobs for Week 1. Williams could be a steal with Jonathan Stewart (ankle) injured.

Wide receiver breakdown

Breaking down the Broncos: The Broncos' receiving corps is a hot topic after Wes Welker was added to Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Thomas has the highest ADP at No. 27, Welker is next at No. 44 and Decker is last at No. 55. They are all being drafted as Top 20 receivers.

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I agree with Thomas going first in the early part of Round 3, and Decker is fine in Round 5. But I wouldn't draft Welker in Round 4, and I'd rather have Decker. Welker is a bust candidate, and I expect his stats to decline going from the Patriots to the Broncos.

Changing teams, changing values: Welker wasn't the only big-name receiver to change teams this offseason. Danny Amendola (Rams to Patriots), Mike Wallace (Steelers to Dolphins), Greg Jennings (Packers to Vikings) and Anquan Boldin (Ravens to 49ers) also changed their address. We'll exclude Harvin (hip) from this discussion since he's hurt.

Amendola easily has the most upside of this group, and his ADP is No. 54. Wallace is at No. 78, Jennings is at No. 89 and Boldin is at No. 95. I would draft Amendola in Round 5, but Wallace and Jennings are bust candidates for me. Boldin is also going a little too soon in Round 8 even with Crabtree out.

Late-round picks to target: There are so many receivers being drafted in Round 10 or later that I'm excited about, including Golden Tate (No. 126), Michael Floyd (No. 128), DeAndre Hopkins (No. 131), Ryan Broyles (No. 151), Aaron Dobson (No. 152), Chris Givens (No. 156), Alshon Jeffery (No. 159), Vincent Brown (No. 164) and Rueben Randle (No. 168).

I wouldn't be surprised if all these guys exceed their ADP if they stay healthy.

Tight end breakdown

Gronkowski still a factor: Even with the uncertainty surrounding Rob Gronkowski's recovery from back surgery he is still being drafted at No. 40 overall in Round 4. That shows his upside when healthy and the lack of talent at the position.

I would take Gronkowski at this spot, and he might be a steal if he's ready for Week 1. When healthy, he's the best Fantasy tight end.

When does the run start? In every draft there is the run when one owner drafts a tight end and several follow. Based on ADP, that happens twice.

The first time is Round 5 with Tony Gonzalez (No. 52), Jason Witten (No. 53) and Vernon Davis (No. 56). The second time is Round 9 with Greg Olsen (No. 100), Cook (No. 101), Jermichael Finley (No. 105) and Bennett (No. 109). I like to wait on the group in the second run, and the tight ends I'm targeting this year are Cook and Finley.

Sleeper tight ends: If you're in a deep league or like to draft two tight ends, some guys to target in Round 12 or later include Fred Davis (No. 162), Tyler Eifert (No. 170), Dustin Keller (No. 173), Jordan Cameron (No. 185), Rob Housler (No. 197) and Coby Fleener (No. 203).

At least one of these tight ends will end up as a Top 12 option this year, and Eifert or Fleener have the highest potential based on their offenses.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg .

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Player News
Titans' Massaquoi rehabbing shoulder, to miss OTA's
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(4:34 pm ET) Outside linebacker Jonathan Massaquoi will not participate in the Titans' first organized team activities, per ESPN.com.

Massaquoi, who was claimed off waivers from the Falcons earlier this year, is recovering from shoulder surgery. He had a bone spur removed from the area, but the procedure was categorized as a minor cleanup.

Massaquoi recorded 22 tackles in 15 games with Atlanta last season.


Entering third season, 49ers' Lawrence Okoye eyeing roster spot
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(4:04 pm ET) This might finally be the year Lawrence Okoye can crack a spot on the 49ers' roster, per the Bay Area News Group.

Okoye, a former British Olympics discus thrower and rugby player, is feeling confident about his improvements and feels like his potential is worth a roster spot.

“It’s very different from the first time I came here. I’m feeling very good about things,” Okoye said Thursday while sitting at his locker. “I’m just happy I was given the opportunity to stay here so long, so I could catch up. I have a good opportunity to show what I can do.”

Okoye has worked under new head coach Jim Tomsula for two years and with Justin Smith's retirement, his emergence might be rewarded.

“You’re going to get lots of people telling you things. But the main thing is to just keep yourself motivated, despite what people say about you," Okoye said. "People will write you off. People will say this or that. Just keep yourself motivated, keep going every day and you’ll be good.”

 


Bengals' Terrelle Pryor still dreams about winning it all
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(3:45 pm ET) Terrelle Pryor's chances of taking the Bengals to the Super Bowl and winning it are slim, but that won’t stop him from dreaming.

Pryor -- in his fourth year in the league -- dreams about winning the Super Bowl with quite some frequency, he just isn't sure what team he's doing it with.

“I don’t know the team. It’s always in black uniforms,” Pryor said. “I didn’t see any orange. No, it’s not the Raiders. But I believe it can happen because I can visualize it like that. I’m into visualization.”

Pryor hasn't played a down since the 2013 regular season, when he passed for 1,798 yards, seven touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 11 games.


Flowers' college position coach thinks he can fill in for injured Beatty
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(3:18 pm ET) Things are moving really fast for Giants offensive lineman Ereck Flowers. The eighth overall pick in the draft, because of an injury to Will Beatty, might have inherited a huge workload this season, per nj.com.

Art Kehoe, Flowers' offensive line coach at the University of Miami, thinks Flowers will be up to the task of protecting quarterback Eli Manning.

"I'm sure he raised his level up a notch or two, but I think he plays every week, I think he plays hard in practice," Kehoe said. "He's an unproven commodity at the next level, and he's a high draft pick, [the Giants] drafted him to be a fixer, so I'm sure he's going in there to do what he did in Miami — scrap his ass off every day in practice, and if you're supposed to be a badass the next weekend [against] your opponent, he's gonna be there and he's gonna bring everything he's got. That's what he does. He wants to know that there's a dude, and he has to take care of him, and he'll be up to the challenge.

Giants' 2013 first-round pick, Justin Pugh is also a top candidate to fill in for the injured Beatty.


Union: Goodell must back off hearing of Patriots QB Tom Brady
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(3:00 pm ET) NFLPA head DeMaurice Smith is growing impatient awaiting word from Roger Goodell on the request of the NFL commissioner to recuse himself as arbitrator of the appeal hearings ofPatriots quarterback Tom Brady.

The league suspended Brady for the first four games next season for his alleged role in the Deflategate scandal, claiming that he likely knew that game balls were being deflated for his benefit before the 2014 AFC title game.

Smith is claiming that neither Goodell nor the Wells Report, which investigated the incident, could legitimately claim impartiality. He added that the NFLPA will "advance the volume" of the request if they don't hear from Goodell by next week. Part of the union's press release reads as follows:

Given a process that has contained procedural violations of our collective bargaining agreement, the Commissioner's role as a central witness in the appeal hearing and his evident partiality with respect to the Wells report, the Commissioner must designate a neutral party to serve as arbitrator in this matter. The players also believe that the Commissioner's history of inconsistently issuing discipline against our players makes him ill-suited to hear this appeal in a fair-minded manner.

As for the Wells Report, Smith stated that "you can't really have credibility just because you slap the word independent on a piece of paper." He offered into evidence the findings in regard to NFL official Walt Anderson, who was a key figure in the investigation, citing one part of the report questions his memory and another credits it.


Zimmer happy with progress of Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:32 pm ET) Mike Zimmer has expressed optimism that underachieving Vikings wideout Cordarrelle Patterson is gaining a better understanding of route-running and the nuances of playing the position in the NFL, which would allow his talent to result in greater productivity.

Patterson took a step back in 2014 after a mediocre rookie year. He played in every game, but managed just 33 receptions for 384 yards and one touchdown. He has since stated that 2015 is his make-or-break year and is apparently acting like it in the offseason.

"He's done real well," Zimmer told Fox Sports North. "He's running routes good. He's working hard. So we just need him to continue to do those things and continue to keep getting consistent and keep improving. I've been impressed."


GM: Dolphins LT Branden Albert should be fine for Week 1
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:22 pm ET) Dolphins general manager Dennis Hickey has expressed optimism that left tackle Branden Albert will be ready to roll by the regular season opener.

Albert has been rehabbing from a torn ACL and MCL sustained last November against Detroit. He had signed a five-year, $46 million contract the previous March and had been performing particularly well before going down.

"It's been a long rehab and he's really attacked it every day," Hickey told SiriusXM NFL Radio, adding that there was a "reasonable explanation" that he would be ready for Week 1. "We really like his progress. He's out there with his team working out. We're really encouraged by what we're seeing with him."

Ja'Wuan Williams was forced to move to left tackle following the Albert injury in 2014. But he struggled at that position and is expected to move to his more familiar right tackle spot this year.


Report: Bills still want to extend Marcell Dareus
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(1:15 pm ET) The Bills still want to extend the contract of defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, according to a report by NFL Network's Ian Rapoport

Despite the one-game suspension levied by the league against Dareus on Thursday, the team still hopes to have an extension wrapped up before the start of training camp. 

2015 is scheduled to be the last season of Dareus' current contract. He'll make $8.06 million.


Shanahan: Struggles of Robert Griffin III unrelated to injury
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:13 pm ET) Former Redskins coach Mike Shanahan does not believe injuries have prevented quarterback Robert Griffin III from maximizing his potential in the NFL. Rather, he feels it was the team not creating an offensive system that best fits his talents and his own belief that he could play a traditional role at that position.

Griffin sustained a serious knee injury in the 2012 playoffs. He then struggled in 2013 in an offense designed to transform him into a drop-back quarterback rather than one that took advantage of his mobility. He suffered another knee injury last year and did not perform well in the offense of new coach Jay Gruden.

"I don't think getting hurt has anything to do with it," Shanahan told 106.7 The Fan. "In college he didn't have a route tree, didn't have a playbook. That does take some time. ... If you take a quarterback like that you must run the kind of system that allows him to be successful. ... I really believe Robert thought he was more of a drop-back quarterback. He hasn't done things the NFL asks you to do. It does take some growing pains. You better really work on it inside and out."

Some have wondered why the Redskins went so hard after Griffin if they weren't willing to create an offense that maximizes his skill set.


Sheldon Richardson not at Jets' OTAs because 'I have a life'
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(1:05 pm ET) Jets defensive end Sheldon Richardson is skipping the team's OTAs this week, a decision that earned him criticism from fans and media. 

Richardson's explanation isn't likely to win anyone over. 

Richardson went on Twitter and told fans he missed the workouts because, "I have a life outside of football."

"I chose to enjoy my family a little longer," he continued. "So to (you) fans that know everything, please worry 'bout yourself."

Richardson pointed out in another tweet that he "jus' wasn't at practice," but that he was still "putting in work tho'"


 
 
 
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