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2013 Draft Prep: Pick-by-pick for No. 10 overall

Senior Fantasy Writer
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No. 1 overall | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | No. 6 | No. 7
No. 8 | No. 9 | No. 10 | No. 11 | No. 12

Pick 10 isn't Pick 1, but it sure doesn't hurt that two of the top 15 players in Fantasy will be on your roster (and it's two of the Top 11 players in a 10-team league).

That's a good mentality to go into your draft with. You could even make a wish list 15 names deep of the best talent in the game and feel cool knowing two of them will be yours. Shoot, you could even expand it to 39 names and promise yourself four players from the list.

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If you do make that list, don't put any quarterbacks near the top. They're not worth the first- or second-round pick. True, quarterbacks historically put up the most points of any position in Fantasy, but there are a ton of them with the opportunity to rack up big numbers. In your typical league of 12 owners or fewer, everyone will have a solid quarterback. You can wait for one. Running backs and top-tier receivers will go much faster.

The other nice perk of batting 10th, at least in a 12-team format like we're going over here, is that you can keep tabs on the owners picking 11th and 12th and see what they need versus what you need. When they've filled a position you need help at, you can wait until after their picks to take a player at that position in an even-numbered round. For example, if it's Round 5 and the 11 and 12 spots each have a quarterback, chances are they're not taking another one this early in the draft. Wait until the Round 6 pick to get your quarterback. Conversely, if you need a tight end and the teams at 11 and 12 also need a tight end and there's only one really good choice on the board, take him before those owners get two shots each to grab him. It's this kind of draft positioning that can really maximize the value of your picks.

Editor's note: The percentages listed are what position you should target based on that round for each pick.

No. 10 overall -- Round 1
Round 1 - Standard QB 0% RB 55% WR 45% TE 0%
Round 1 - PPR QB 0% RB 70% WR 30% TE 0%

Running back might be the preferred way to go here but even I couldn't pass up Calvin Johnson, regardless of league format. This is made possible by the amount of capable rushers who can be counted on as, at worst, low-end No. 1 Fantasy options. Do the math: There are 14 of them and you have two of the first 15 picks. If one of the first 15 picks is Calvin Johnson, you're guaranteed one of those other 14 running backs to make it back to you in Round 2. Will it put you in trouble when you go shopping for a No. 2 running back a little later on? Probably not; you may have to settle for someone in Round 3 but it shouldn't be someone worse than, say, Frank Gore. That's a small price to pay to start the best receiver of our time week in and week out. In the event Calvin's gone -- a likelihood in PPR formats -- beginning with an elite running back with 250-touch potential is not such a bad consolation prize.

Players you can get here (standard): Calvin Johnson, Alfred Morris, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy
Players you can get here (PPR): Trent Richardson, LeSean McCoy, C.J. Spiller, Matt Forte
My selection at No. 10 standard: Calvin Johnson
My selection at No. 10 PPR: Matt Forte

No. 10 overall -- Round 2
Round 2 - Standard QB 0% RB 40% WR 40% TE 20%
Round 2 - PPR QB 0% RB 40% WR 50% TE 10%

If you went with Calvin in Round 1 you're going to want to follow the 14-out-of-15 thinking with running backs and go with that position in Round 2. You just don't want to get caught without an elite running back. If you took a running back in Round 1 you can open yourself up to an elite receiver or Jimmy Graham. Remember, one of the benefits of taking Megatron in Round 1 was that you could still find a good enough No. 2 running back when you're up in Round 3. Exploit that -- assuming you can't get a second Top 14 running back, go with an elite receiver here whether it's PPR or not.

Players you can get here (standard): Chris Johnson, Stevan Ridley, Jimmy Graham, A.J. Green
Players you can get here (PPR): A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall
My selection at No. 15 standard: Chris Johnson
My selection at No. 15 PPR: A.J. Green

No. 10 overall -- Round 3
Round 3 - Standard QB 10% RB 45% WR 35% TE 10%
Round 3 - PPR QB 0% RB 50% WR 45% TE 5%

Pretty simple plan here: Have two running backs and one receiver after this pick. So if you took two rushers, make this a receiver. If you took a receiver and a running back, go with a running back. You might be tempted to take Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers if they slide this far in a standard league (don't do it in a PPR). They're a great value here and worth taking so long as you promise yourself to take a running back in Round 4. I wouldn't make a similar move with Peyton Manning, Cam Newton or any other quarterback, though.

Players you can get here (standard): David Wilson, Le'Veon Bell, Darren McFadden, Vincent Jackson
Players you can get here (PPR): David Wilson, Le'Veon Bell, Victor Cruz, Darren McFadden
My selection at No. 34 standard: Le'Veon Bell
My selection at No. 34 PPR: Le'Veon Bell

No. 10 overall -- Round 4
Round 4 - Standard QB 20% RB 30% WR 20% TE 30%
Round 4 - PPR QB 15% RB 30% WR 30% TE 25%

This is pretty much the Rob Gronkowski zone -- if you want to roll the dice on a high-risk, high-reward Fantasy proposition then now's the time. Gronkowski's status will obviously play a significant role but if there's nothing that says he'll miss more than a week or two then he's worth the pick, particularly if you already have two running backs and can splurge a little bit. If you're squeamish on him you're still in pretty good shape to find a quarterback at a great value. If you don't want a quarterback yet, or if you need a running back, then you can always go with a rusher with some decent appeal. Once you're through this pick expect the running back rank list to get ugly. The dropoff in receivers from Round 4 to Round 5 is minimal.

Players you can get here (standard): Rob Gronkowski, Darren Sproles, Cam Newton, Marques Colston
Players you can get here (PPR): Aaron Rodgers, Rob Gronkowski, Frank Gore, Darren McFadden, Danny Amendola
My selection at No. 39 standard: Rob Gronkowski
My selection at No. 39 PPR: Aaron Rodgers

No. 10 overall -- Round 5
Round 5 - Standard QB 25% RB 35% WR 30% TE 5%
Round 5 - PPR QB 30% RB 25% WR 35% TE 10%

I like the idea of looking for good value while still drafting for need in Round 5. What's left of the running back population isn't strong but many names will be considered Flex-worthy. What's left of the receiver world is strong, even in PPR leagues. You can still find 75-catch candidates with 1,000-yard potential. I don't mind going in that direction. But if you have racked up a couple of rushers and a couple of receivers, you'll really like what's available at quarterback. Remember to take a look at the owners picking 11th and 12th and make sure you draft smart here -- taking a passer in Round 5 when they each have one already is a rookie mistake since you can confidently wait until Round 6 to get your guy since they won't draft two quarterbacks early on.

Players you can get here (standard): Eric Decker, Hakeem Nicks, Ryan Mathews, Danny Amendola, Chris Ivory, Andrew Luck
Players you can get here (PPR): Matthew Stafford, Rashard Mendenhall, Cecil Shorts, Eddie Lacy, Tavon Austin, Rashard Mendenhall
My selection at No. 58 standard: Ryan Mathews
My selection at No. 58 PPR: Tavon Austin

No. 10 overall -- Round 6
Round 6 - Standard QB 30% RB 30% WR 25% TE 15%
Round 6 - PPR QB 30% RB 30% WR 25% TE 15%

Well, take a look at your roster. Through five picks you should have a couple of stud running backs, at least one stud receiver and maybe another quality player at another position. Aim for need here but without reaching -- that screams quarterback if you don't already have one. If someone like Andrew Luck, Tony Romo or Robert Griffin III is on the board then make the call on one of them. If there's a running back with some potential to break out then now's the time to get one. I might even lean toward a back knowing how thin the position will continue to get in subsequent rounds. Even tight end could be in play, though there will certainly be better value choices later on.

Players you can get here (standard): Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III, Steve Smith, Cecil Shorts, James Jones
Players you can get here (PPR): Chris Ivory, Ahmad Bradshaw, Tom Brady, Antonio Brown
My selection at No. 63 standard: Tony Romo
My selection at No. 63 PPR: Chris Ivory

No. 10 overall -- Round 7
Round 7 - Standard QB 15% RB 25% WR 40% TE 20%
Round 7 - PPR QB 20% RB 30% WR 35% TE 15%

Remember how I wrote that going with running backs early on would pay off later when the pickings got slim? Well, it's pay day. The running backs left in Round 7 -- especially late Round 7 -- are basically all handcuffs and lesser options. Can't say the same for the receivers left -- some have 1,000-yard hopes. I like the idea of waiting until now to get your third receiver, if not your second if you found excellent values at other positions earlier on. Note: If you took LeSean McCoy in Round 1 and need to handcuff him to Bryce Brown, now's pretty much the safest time to take him, though there's still a pretty good chance he'll make it back to you in Round 8.

Players you can get here (standard): Steve Johnson, Ben Tate, Bryce Brown, Jordy Nelson, Kenny Britt
Players you can get here (PPR): T.Y. Hilton, Vernon Davis, Jordy Nelson, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Wallace
My selection at No. 82 standard: Steve Johnson
My selection at No. 82 PPR: T.Y. Hilton

No. 10 overall -- Round 8
Round 8 - Standard QB 10% RB 30% WR 40% TE 20%
Round 8 - PPR QB 10% RB 30% WR 40% TE 20%

Let loose with some sleeper picks beginning in this round, provided you don't need to handcuff a first-round running back or fill a starting spot at quarterback. Sleeper receivers will look better than sleeper running backs here and in the next round, something to keep in mind if you think about going with a lot of receivers early on in the draft. In the event you do need a quarterback, I like the idea of getting one now and another when you're up in Round 9 or 10.

Players you can get here (standard): Mark Ingram, Mike Williams, Kenny Britt, Vick Ballard, Eli Manning
Players you can get here (PPR): Bryce Brown, Colin Kaepernick, DeSean Jackson, Michael Floyd
My selection at No. 87 standard: Mike Williams
My selection at No. 87 PPR: Bryce Brown

No. 10 overall -- Round 9
Round 9 - Standard QB 10% RB 35% WR 40% TE 15%
Round 9 - PPR QB 15% RB 35% WR 35% TE 15%

You should still scan for sleepers but that doesn't mean skimping on veterans who slip in the draft. True, the future of Fantasy always skews young but there could be some nice value choices by the time Round 9 comes around. The running backs left are part-timers with potential to play big in the event they find regular reps. The receivers have far more potential. Let your roster make-up determine which direction you go in -- if you have a lot of runners, go with a pass catcher and vice versa. Of course tight ends might also come into play and there are several good options available. Again, double-check if your rivals in the 11 and 12 slots need a tight end; if they do then maybe take one now. If not, you can swipe one with your next pick.

Players you can get here (standard): Greg Jennings, Michael Floyd, Ryan Broyles, DeAndre Hopkins, Russell Wilson, Kyle Rudolph
Players you can get here (PPR): Golden Tate, Johnathan Franklin, Fred Jackson, Greg Jennings, Josh Gordon
My selection at No. 106 standard: Michael Floyd
My selection at No. 106 PPR: Johnathan Franklin

No. 10 overall -- Round 10
Round 10 - Standard QB 10% RB 35% WR 40% TE 15%
Round 10 - PPR QB 10% RB 35% WR 35% TE 20%

With five picks to go, now is not the time to slow down on drafting potential breakouts and sleepers. It's also a good time to take a tight end whether you need one to start or if you want to get a quality replacement in case Gronk misses the first few games of the season. That's not a mandatory thing but if you see a guy that has a shot at nine or 10 touchdowns you shouldn't pass him up this late. There aren't a lot of appealing receivers left either so you might opt to lean toward a running back here. In both of my cases I didn't take a running back because I felt there were two productive players left on the board. I couldn't pass them up.

Players you can get here (standard): Kyle Rudolph, Anquan Boldin, Shonn Greene, Joique Bell, Knile Davis
Players you can get here (PPR): Justin Blackmon, Greg Olsen, Emmanuel Sanders, Isaiah Pead
My selection at No. 111 standard: Kyle Rudolph
My selection at No. 111 PPR: Justin Blackmon

No. 10 overall -- Round 11
Round 11 - Standard QB 10% RB 30% WR 35% TE 20% K 0% DST 5%
Round 11 - PPR QB 10% RB 30% WR 40% TE 15% K 0% DST 5%

Some people look at the late rounds as a nuisance -- you're drafting roster filler. I say you're drafting lottery tickets. The whole point of these late picks is to strike gold and catch a player who can become productive. I like to look for receivers on teams expected to throw the ball a lot, perhaps while playing from behind. I like overlooked veterans and running backs with touchdown potential. Tight ends still remain valid bargains at this point, and because we're drafting late in Round 11, I won't rule out taking a Top-3 DST if I like my team through 10 picks. You're picking again so soon that you might be able to grab the player you want in Round 12 while still landing an awesome DST in Round 11.

Players you can get here (standard and PPR): Jermichael Finley, Martellus Bennett, Rod Streater, Malcom Floyd, Sidney Rice, 49ers DST
My selection at No. 130 standard: 49ers DST
My selection at No. 130 PPR: Sidney Rice

No. 10 overall -- Round 12
Round 12 - Standard QB 10% RB 25% WR 25% TE 10% K 0% DST 30%
Round 12 - PPR QB 10% RB 25% WR 25% TE 10% K 0% DST 30%

Picks are dwindling, so it's time to polish off your roster. Now's not a bad time to take a DST if you haven't yet. That's because most owners will take DSTs in Round 13, leaving you with scraps when you're up. And because so many owners will take a DST, it'll slide a sleeper or two your way when you're up next. Unless you have a specific name or two in mind, here's your chance to improve your team with a DST. I wouldn't get fancy and go with a kicker here, you can do that with your last pick.

Players you can get here (standard and PPR): Denard Robinson, Kendall Hunter, Bengals DST, Mikel Leshoure, Denarius Moore, Lance Dunbar
My selection at No. 135 standard: Mikel Leshoure
My selection at No. 135 PPR: Bengals DST

No. 10 overall -- Round 13
Round 13 - Standard QB 10% RB 20% WR 15% TE 10% K 0% DST 45%
Round 13 - PPR QB 10% RB 20% WR 15% TE 10% K 0% DST 45%

Obviously if you need a kicker and a DST by this point, now's the time to pull the trigger on one. You could feasibly take the top kicker on your board here and land a decent DST with your last pick, but you don't get that much of an edge going with a kicker before everyone else. I like Blair Walsh, Matt Prater and Phil Dawson and assume I can get one of them in the final round. So, if there's a sleeper that's made it this far, go for it. Or, in the case of my PPR team, a starting tight end.

Players you can get here (standard and PPR): Denard Robinson, Steelers DST, Kenbrell Thompkins, Falcons DST
My selection at No. 154 standard: Kenbrell Thompkins
My selection at No. 154 PPR: Owen Daniels

No. 10 overall -- Round 14
Round 14 - Standard QB 0% RB 0% WR 0% TE 0% K 100% DST 0%
Round 14 - PPR QB 0% RB 0% WR 0% TE 0% K 100% DST 0%

Maybe the last perk of picking 10th is that you're a lock to get a quality kicker. Look for players in good situations with good offenses that can provide plenty of field goal opportunities. Matt Prater is one of them -- though kickers with Peyton Manning don't always perform well, Prater will get some chances to nail field goals from 50-plus yards. He made 3 of 4 from that distance last season and the Broncos are sure to score plenty of points this season.

Players you can get here (standard and PPR): A kicker
My selection at No. 159 standard: Matt Prater
My selection at No. 159 PPR: Matt Prater

Here's what the teams look like following the draft:

No. 10 overall -- Final Rosters
Standard PPR
QB Tony Romo QB Aaron Rodgers
RB Chris Johnson RB Matt Forte
RB Le'Veon Bell RB Le'Veon Bell
WR Calvin Johnson WR A.J. Green
WR Steve Johnson WR Tavon Austin
FLEX Ryan Mathews FLEX Chris Ivory
TE Rob Gronkowski TE Owen Daniels
K Matt Prater K Matt Prater
DST 49ers DST Bengals
BENCH Mike Williams BENCH T.Y. Hilton
BENCH Michael Floyd BENCH Bryce Brown
BENCH Kyle Rudolph BENCH Johnathan Franklin
BENCH Mikel Leshoure BENCH Justin Blackmon
BENCH Kenbrell Thompkins BENCH Sidney Rice

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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