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2013 Draft Prep: Pick-by-pick for No. 12 overall

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

No. 1 overall | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | No. 6 | No. 7
No. 8 | No. 9 | No. 10 | No. 11 | No. 12

The more I mock draft, the more I like picking late in Round 1 and going first in Round 2. I also like getting back-to-back picks in a year where every position except running back is rather deep. It doesn't hurt that there are 14 really good running backs and I'm guaranteed two of them if I so choose.

Picking here also opens up two other opportunities: The chance to draft Calvin Johnson in a non-PPR league (he's a cinch to go before your first pick in a league where receptions count) and the chance to get Jimmy Graham in any format. These are two game-changers; everybody expects both of them to top 100 catches for well over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. In Graham's case, he might be the only tight end to accomplish such a feat this year; Johnson won't be the only receiver to but he might end up with over 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns. That's why it's a slim chance he'll make it to 12th overall.

Point is, both guys are phenoms that you'd be lucky to find anywhere else in the draft. You should not be opposed to taking one of them with your second pick, going with a running back first. Just do it with the understanding that you'll have to hit on running backs later on. In a standard league you'll be lucky to see Darren McFadden, Frank Gore or Darren Sproles fall to you in Round 3, but in a PPR league at least one of them will be there.

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But say by some fluke Megatron and Graham make it to your back-to-back picks. Should you take both?! I'm not a fan of being weak at running back -- that's a position that's tough to fill. There are breakout candidates (Chris Ivory, Shane Vereen, Daryl Richardson, Mark Ingram), deep sleepers (Zac Stacy, Stepfan Taylor) and has-beens (Ryan Mathews, Ahmad Bradshaw, Rashard Mendenhall, any Panthers running back) who you can definitely find later on.

Your comfort level with these backs should determine whether or not you'd want to splurge on Johnson and Graham. But I will say if you're in a draft where two of the 11 picks in front of you are quarterbacks, and you think others will take quarterbacks in Rounds 2 and 3, and you're very willing to wait for a quarterback (hint: it's a good idea), then you might get lucky with a running back slipping into your paws in Round 3 and could take the chance on this Mega-combo.

Otherwise, enjoy the benefits of taking two running backs with your first two picks, easily the most stable way to start your path to Fantasy dominance.

Editor's note: The percentages listed are what position you should target based on that round for each pick.

No. 12 overall -- Round 1
Round 1 - Standard QB 0% RB 90% WR 10% TE 0%
Round 1 - PPR QB 0% RB 95% WR 5% TE 0%

I'd be very surprised to see Calvin Johnson make it this far. No other receiver is worth a first-round pick. Graham would probably be your next pick no matter what, so think running back here. And think big -- many players remaining include 250-touch backs with goal-line duties and 1,300-total-yard potential. That's not too far off from the types of backs that went in front of you. A pre-draft exercise: Rank the Top 12 running backs and then take the highest name on your list when you're up. You know one will be here if not two, which is great since you pick again right away.

Players you can get here (standard): LeSean McCoy, Alfred Morris, Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Stevan Ridley
Players you can get here (PPR): Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush
My selection at No. 12 standard: Matt Forte
My selection at No. 12 PPR: Marshawn Lynch

No. 12 overall -- Round 2
Round 2 - Standard QB 0% RB 65% WR 0% TE 35%
Round 2 - PPR QB 0% RB 55% WR 0% TE 45%

This is simple. If you made the Top 12 running back list and there's still a name available you really want, take him. If not, take Jimmy Graham. There's no fault in taking Graham at all, just be prepared to settle at running back, wait for a quarterback until at least Round 6 (you'll need your next three picks for rushers and a receiver) and cope with owners who steal tight ends later on in the draft. If Graham isn't an option then go running back -- the receivers that will fall to you in Rounds 3 and 4 are fantastic and the quarterbacks would be a reach here, even Drew Brees.

Players you can get here (standard): Alfred Morris, Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Stevan Ridley, Jimmy Graham, Chris Johnson
Players you can get here (PPR): Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, Jimmy Graham, Reggie Bush, Alfred Morris
My selection at No. 13 standard: Steven Jackson
My selection at No. 13 PPR: Reggie Bush

No. 12 overall -- Round 3
Round 3 - Standard QB 10% RB 25% WR 60% TE 5%
Round 3 - PPR QB 20% RB 30% WR 45% TE 5%

That Top 12 running back list you made will make a nice paper airplane by the time you're up in Round 3. Expect at least 21 running backs to be taken in the draft by the time you're up again. And expect all the top-tier receivers to be snagged as well. That doesn't mean receivers are a lost cause. There will be reputable names still on the board, especially in standard leagues, and if you landed two running backs already then going back-to-back with receivers is a good idea. If you have only one running back, now's the time to take another, even if it means someone going with a guy you don't love. Trust me when I say you do not want to search for a starting Fantasy running back later on. The only quarterbacks I'd even entertain here are Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers and I'd have to be depressed with the receivers left on the board and have two running backs already.

Players you can get here (standard): Randall Cobb, Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, Darren Sproles, Rob Gronkowski
Players you can get here (PPR): Victor Cruz, Drew Brees, Darren McFadden, Marques Colston, Frank Gore, Rob Gronkowski
My selection at No. 36 standard: Vincent Jackson
My selection at No. 36 PPR: Drew Brees

No. 12 overall -- Round 4
Round 4 - Standard QB 5% RB 25% WR 60% TE 10%
Round 4 - PPR QB 15% RB 30% WR 45% TE 10%

If you don't feel good about your running backs, take another. If you do feel good about your running backs (hopefully you have two by now) you can afford to go in another direction. Wide receiver is still going to be attractive and while the position won't become weak by the time you pick again in Round 5, there won't be the same class of talent there. That's where I would lean. Rob Gronkowski is another option if you've got a Las Vegas state of mind. The Round 4 price tag isn't steep if there's nothing suggesting he'll miss the start of the season. You know what kind of potential he has -- heck he might be Jimmy Graham two rounds later.

Players you can get here (standard): Randall Cobb, Victor Cruz, Darren Sproles, Rob Gronkowski
Players you can get here (PPR): Victor Cruz, Drew Brees, Darren McFadden, Marques Colston, Frank Gore, Rob Gronkowski
My selection at No. 37 standard: Victor Cruz
My selection at No. 37 PPR: Marques Colston

No. 12 overall -- Round 5
Round 5 - Standard QB 10% RB 65% WR 20% TE 5%
Round 5 - PPR QB 10% RB 65% WR 20% TE 5%

Your roster will still have needs to fill but I think you can take care of that with your next pick. I'd earmark Round 5 for a third running back. While the names left aren't a who's-who of Fantasy heroes they will make great Flex plays and quality backups. This is simply a case of taking advantage of how the draft board shakes out -- someone with relative value will be available at running back and it's a good idea to take him to strengthen your roster.

Players you can get here (standard): Ryan Mathews, Chris Ivory, Danny Amendola, Andre Brown
Players you can get here (PPR): Eddie Lacy, Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Mathews, Chris Ivory
My selection at No. 60 standard: Chris Ivory
My selection at No. 60 PPR: Ryan Mathews

No. 12 overall -- Round 6
Round 6 - Standard QB 30% RB 30% WR 35% TE 5%
Round 6 - PPR QB 30% RB 30% WR 35% TE 5%

Knowing how rapidly the quality of talent will be at running back in Rounds 7 and 8, going for the kill at running back isn't a bad idea. But there will still be 1,000-yard receivers on the board here and they're not a bad way to go, especially if you still need a starter. What might be most alluring, however, are the quarterbacks on the board. In typical 10- and 12-team leagues there's an abundance of passers, so much so that everyone will have a great one. This is why it makes sense to pass on quarterbacks earlier on unless it was a ridiculous value. In Round 6, when other positions are dwindling, quarterbacks are fantastic.

Players you can get here (standard): Chris Ivory, Danny Amendola, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Tony Romo, Andre Brown
Players you can get here (PPR): Chris Ivory, Steve Johnson, Antonio Brown, Hakeem Nicks
My selection at No. 61 standard: Andrew Luck
My selection at No. 61 PPR: Steve Johnson

No. 12 overall -- Round 7
Round 7 - Standard QB 10% RB 40% WR 40% TE 10%
Round 7 - PPR QB 15% RB 40% WR 35% TE 10%

I think you can clean up with your next two picks. We'll start with this one, where you should see a couple of running backs with some appeal. Maybe they're starters, maybe they can begin the year with 15 touches per game. I'm all for building depth there and if you can be so fortunate to find one like that amid the backups and handcuffs that otherwise litter the round, take a shot. If you already have a lot of rushers then it's not a bad call to look for similar traits in receivers -- guys that slipped but still have prominent roles in their offense.

Players you can get here (standard): Steve Johnson, Jordy Nelson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Mark Ingram, Kenny Britt
Players you can get here (PPR): T.Y. Hilton, Vernon Davis, Jordy Nelson, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson
My selection at No. 84 standard: BenJarvus Green-Ellis
My selection at No. 84 PPR: DeAngelo Williams

No. 12 overall -- Round 8
Round 8 - Standard QB 10% RB 40% WR 40% TE 10%
Round 8 - PPR QB 15% RB 40% WR 35% TE 10%

If your last pick was to pick up a value player who slipped on the draft board, this pick is to find a sleeper. In fact, many of your next picks should be used to pick up sleepers. But we're talking cream-of-the-crop sleepers here, not the kind of "Oh, I guess I'll take ... " sleepers you'll end up with later on. Look for players, particularly young players who are either an injury away from a huge opportunity or already have the huge opportunity but not the track record. Just make sure you don't take one of those guys over a proven commodity with a good track record. If for some reason you've waited this long to take a quarterback, take one now and another with one of your next two picks just to have two shots at landing a reliable starter.

Players you can get here (standard): Mark Ingram, Kenny Britt, Ben Tate, Mike Williams, Eli Manning
Players you can get here (PPR): DeAngelo Williams, Mike Wallace, Colin Kaepernick, DeSean Jackson
My selection at No. 85 standard: Ben Tate
My selection at No. 85 PPR: Mike Wallace

No. 12 overall -- Round 9
Round 9 - Standard QB 10% RB 35% WR 45% TE 10%
Round 9 - PPR QB 10% RB 35% WR 45% TE 10%

This is the time to start taking more risks with your picks, finding sleepers that don't carry a lot of trouble in case you miss. I'll give you an example: Four receivers I am looking for around this time in drafts are Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, Ryan Broyles and DeAndre Hopkins. I like all four of them and would love to have at least one on my roster since they carry some serious breakout potential. By comparison, the running backs left aren't nearly as enticing but would be if they found a full-time role. Count up your running backs -- if you want to bulk up there do so now, but be prepared to spend your next pick on a receiver. If you have enough rushers then aim for a receiver here, one of the four guys I like perhaps. Tight end can wait until your next pick if you so desire.

Players you can get here (standard): Michael Floyd, Ryan Broyles, DeAndre Hopkins, Kyle Rudolph, Shonn Greene
Players you can get here (PPR): Golden Tate, DeAndre Hopkins, Johnathan Franklin, Josh Gordon, Bilal Powell
My selection at No. 108 standard: DeAndre Hopkins
My selection at No. 108 PPR: DeAndre Hopkins

No. 12 overall -- Round 10
Round 10 - Standard QB 10% RB 35% WR 45% TE 10%
Round 10 - PPR QB 10% RB 35% WR 45% TE 10%

More sleepers, more often. That's the thinking you should have in Round 10. Don't think about just rookies or trendy sleepers, though. You will find players with some meaningful value slip through the cracks. One such player is Justin Blackmon, who might be taken a smidge too early in Round 10 because he's useless for the first four weeks of the season but has obvious potential as a threat in Jacksonville's passing game. Jonathan Stewart carries similar risk (who knows when he'll be healthy) but also carries some hope as at least a one-week replacement once he gets back on the field. It's OK to draft players like this when all you're burning is a 10th round pick.

Players you can get here (standard): Ryan Broyles, Kyle Rudolph, Shonn Greene, Justin Blackmon
Players you can get here (PPR): Golden Tate, Johnathan Franklin, Josh Gordon, Jonathan Stewart
My selection at No. 109 standard: Justin Blackmon
My selection at No. 109 PPR: Jonathan Stewart

No. 12 overall -- Round 11
Round 11 - Standard QB 5% RB 45% WR 35% TE 15%
Round 11 - PPR QB 5% RB 45% WR 35% TE 15%

The late-round grind remains a search for sleepers as well as handcuffs for your top running backs. But don't be surprised if you find yourself still looking for a starting tight end late in your drafts. That's right, a position you might have filled earlier could slip through the cracks either by accident or by design. In my case, I like to wait for a tight end if I can't draft one at a good value. Three start-worthy sleepers -- Tyler Eifert, Jordan Cameron and Coby Fleener -- top my list of Tight Ends You Can Draft And Cut Bait On If They Stink (TEYCDACBOITS for short). Don't be afraid to begin your season with one of these guys in your lineup.

Players you can get here (standard and PPR): Aaron Dobson, Denarius Moore, Tyler Eifert, Owen Daniels, Michael Bush, Mikel Leshoure, Rashad Jennings
My selection at No. 132 standard: Michael Bush
My selection at No. 132 PPR: Tyler Eifert

No. 12 overall -- Round 12
Round 12 - Standard QB 5% RB 25% WR 25% TE 10% K 0% DST 35%
Round 12 - PPR QB 5% RB 25% WR 25% TE 10% K 0% DST 35%

You're going in one of three directions here: A sleeper, a handcuff running back or a DST. A lot of people suggest waiting until your second-to-last pick to take a DST, myself included, but you're in a rare situation. Most owners will not take a DST until they're up in the second-to-last round. If it's an even-numbered round draft like the ones I'm in you can cherry pick a DST now and then wait for your sleeper in Round 13. If it's an odd-numbered draft then the cherry picking wouldn't even happen -- you'd just take a good DST with your second-to-last pick and fire up a kicker with your last pick. I'll list the DSTs you could get here but just for the purpose of showing the alternative, I'm not taking DSTs until my second-to-last pick. It's up to you if getting a Top-5 DST is worth waiting on a sleeper or handcuff.

Players you can get here (standard and PPR): Bengals DST, Bears DST, Broncos DST, Lance Dunbar, Coby Fleener, Stepfan Taylor, Ace Sanders, Robert Woods, Andy Dalton


My selection at No. 133 standard: Tyler Eifert
My selection at No. 133 PPR: Lance Dunbar

No. 12 overall -- Round 13
Round 13 - Standard QB 10% RB 20% WR 15% TE 10% K 0% DST 45%
Round 13 - PPR QB 10% RB 20% WR 15% TE 10% K 0% DST 45%

Pretty simple here: If you still need a DST, take one. If you already have a DST, go with a sleeper/handcuff. In the event that this is a DST for you, aim for one that has a favorable Week 1 matchup. The Buccaneers play at the Jets, the Colts host the Raiders, the Browns host the Dolphins and the Chiefs play at the Jaguars. I like the Bucs DST plenty but they nor any other DST I listed is expected to be a major Fantasy factor. They should all be there when you pick and if you don't like them after Week 1 or want to play another matchup in Week 2, just tap into the waiver wire.

Players you can get here (standard and PPR): Falcons DST, Vikings DST, Buccaneers DST, Blair Walsh, Phil Dawson
My selection at No. 156 standard: Vikings DST
My selection at No. 156 PPR: Buccaneers DST

No. 12 overall -- Round 14
Round 14 - Standard QB 0% RB 0% WR 0% TE 0% K 100% DST 0%
Round 14 - PPR QB 0% RB 0% WR 0% TE 0% K 100% DST 0%

Unless some dorkus malorkus decides to get cutesy and pick a kicker before his last choice, you're going to land a premier kicker. Look for the guys working with good, not elite, offenses and a solid track record. The choice here should either be Blair Walsh, Phil Dawson, Matt Prater or Stephen Gostkowski.

Players you can get here (standard and PPR): A kicker
My selection at No. 157 standard: Blair Walsh
My selection at No. 157 PPR: Blair Walsh

Here's what the teams look like following the draft:

No. 12 overall -- Final Rosters
Standard PPR
QB Andrew Luck QB Drew Brees
RB Matt Forte RB Marshawn Lynch
RB Steven Jackson RB Reggie Bush
WR Vincent Jackson WR Marques Colston
WR Victor Cruz WR Steve Johnson
FLEX Chris Ivory FLEX Ryan Mathews
TE Tyler Eifert TE Tyler Eifert
K Blair Walsh K Blair Walsh
DST Vikings DST Buccaneers
BENCH BenJarvus Green-Ellis BENCH DeAngelo Williams
BENCH Ben Tate BENCH Mike Wallace
BENCH DeAndre Hopkins BENCH DeAndre Hopkins
BENCH Justin Blackmon BENCH Jonathan Stewart
BENCH Michael Bush BENCH Lance Dunbar

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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Player News
Week 3 bust alert: Montee Ball
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4:13 pm ET) We hope Montee Ball fares better than Eddie Lacy and Ryan Mathews this week since the Seahawks have knocked both running backs out in consecutive weeks.

Lacy suffered a concussion and Mathews was carted off with a knee injury. Ball has been OK at best through two games. He had 23 carries for 67 yards and a touchdown and two catches for 16 yards in Week 1 against the Colts and 12 carries for 60 yards and three catches for 29 yards in Week 2 against the Chiefs.

We know Seattle is a tough place to play and only two running backs in the past nine games there have reached double digits in Fantasy points -- Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew and Tampa Bay's Mike James.

If the Broncos are going to win this game it will be with Peyton Manning, not Ball. We would sit Ball if possible in this matchup.

For a complete list of Week 3 options, read my latest Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.


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McCluster popped up on the injury report Wednesday with a foot injury. The fact that he was upgraded to full practice bodes well for his status Week 3. 


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Locker was the talk of Fantasy leagues in Week 2 coming off a strong Week 1 performance at Kansas City and facing a suspect Dallas defense. Locker failed to deliver with 234 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions against the Cowboys.

We hope he can rebound this week against the Bengals, but it won't be easy. Cincinnati just crushed Matt Ryan in Week 2 with 231 passing yards, one touchdown and three interceptions, and the Bengals have now allowed just four passing touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions in their past four regular-season games. Locker might have the chance to earn Fantasy owners' trust down the road, but he's an easy quarterback to sit this week.

For a complete list of Week 3 options, read my latest Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.


Can't trust Fred Jackson in Week 3
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(4:10 pm ET) I'm a little concerned about Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller this week given the matchup with the Chargers, who have been great in stopping the ground game through two weeks. 

Andre Ellington (13 carries for 53 yards) and Marshawn Lynch (six carries for 36 yards) were held in check, but San Diego has allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs as Stepfan Taylor, Lynch and Robert Turbin have scored.

Jackson has played second fiddle to Spiller so far this season with just 19 carries for 85 yards and five catches for 40 yards in two games (Spiller has 27 carries for 122 yards and four catches for 20 yards and a touchdown). We'll see how the touches are divided this week, but Spiller has more upside than Jackson.

And in a tough matchup, even at home, we'd only use Jackson as a flex option in deeper formats.

For a complete list of Week 3 options, read my latest Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.


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by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(4:09 pm ET) Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger might be a quarterback to avoid in Week 3 at Carolina.

Roethlisberger is off to another slow start for the second year in a row with 24 Fantasy points combined in his first two games against Cleveland and Baltimore. Last year, Big Ben had 25 points in his first two outings against Tennessee and Cincinnati before getting 20 points against Chicago at home.

A similar situation could unfold this week against the Panthers, but Carolina was able to contain Matthew Stafford in Week 2 and should have similar success against Roethlisberger. The Panthers have a 10-game streak of not allowing a quarterback to score multiple touchdowns, which extends back to Week 14 in 2012, including matchups with Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Stafford and Russell Wilson.

Roethlisberger will face a heavy pass rush in this game, and he is not a recommended starting option in most formats. 

For a complete list of Week 3 options, read my latest Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.


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He lost a touchdown to rookie Carlos Hyde in Week 1, but he doesn't look like he's slowing down yet.

This week, however, Gore is facing a tough task against the Cardinals. Arizona allowed Ryan Mathews to score in Week 1 and Rashad Jennings had 109 total yards in Week 2. But Gore was held to 13 carries for 14 yards at Arizona last year, and we expect him to struggle again this week.

It's hard to bench Gore in the majority of leagues, but don't be surprised if he's held to single digits in Fantasy points in this matchup.

For a complete list of Week 3 options, read my latest Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.


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(4:07 pm ET) It should be a good matchup for Chris Johnson against the Bears, who have allowed a running back to score in each of the first two games with C.J. Spiller in Week 1 and Frank Gore in Week 2.

But Chicago hasn't exactly folded against the run like in 2013 (so far), and Johnson continues to share work with Chris Ivory, who has a better chance to score at the goal line.

In Week 2 at Green Bay, Johnson had 12 carries for 21 yards and one catch for no yards, while Ivory had 13 carries for 43 yards and a touchdown and one catch for 3 yards.

The Jets are also working in Bilal Powell on passing situations, and Johnson should have another down game. Ivory is the better Jets running back to trust when everyone is healthy.

For a complete list of Week 3 options, read my latest Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.


Tony Romo a questionable starter in Week 3
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(4:05 pm ET) Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo might be a quarterback to avoid in Week 3 at St. Louis.

At some point Romo is going to have a big game, and it could happen this week against the Rams, who he thrived against last season with 210 passing yards and three touchdowns. But the Cowboys showed in Week 2 at Tennessee they can win behind DeMarco Murray, and Romo was limited to 176 passing yards and one touchdown.

We're not punting on Romo yet for the season, but his slow start (just 24 Fantasy points combined in two games) is frustrating and easy to bench him if you have a better alternative. 

For a complete list of Week 3 options, read my latest Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.


Avoid Shonn Greene in Week 3
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But with Dallas ahead, the Titans were throwing a lot, and Shonn Greene is a non-factor in the passing game. He has run well this season with 20 carries for 111 yards (5.5 yards per carry), but the Bengals should be able to contain him.

If the Titans are trailing then Greene will again be limited as a receiver, even with Dexter McCluster (foot) potentially out or less than 100 percent.

We'd like to see Tennessee give rookie Bishop Sankey more run this week, but even with Greene still the starter we can't trust him in this matchup.

For a complete list of Week 3 options, read my latest Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.


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