Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Playoff Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Daily Fantasy
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2013 Draft Prep: DST and kicker tiers and strategies

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

No one gets excited about taking a kicker, no one fist-pumps after landing a 'steal' at DST. Just doesn't happen.

They are late-round picks for a reason: Most everyone is in a league with 14 teams or less and the NFL fields 32 teams with one kicker and one DST per. The supply grossly outweighs the demand. If you have one that you don't want to deal with, you send them packing and pick up someone else.

I wish it was that easy at running back.

Play Playoff Challenge!
Player Challenge
NEW Playoff Challenge Championship Edition offers one more way to play postseason Fantasy Football and compete for cash prizes. Join now before time runs out!
Join a new league!

When it comes to DSTs and kickers, we're talking about late, late, late draft picks. Like your last two. I don't care if your league has special rules for DSTs or that kickers get 20 points per field goal. So long as everyone starts the same amount of kickers and DSTs, they're all relative, and there's plenty of them.

They're also fairly tough to predict. Many people will play the matchups for defenses and in many cases they'll be right for doing so but sometimes the underwhelming, uninspiring offense rises up to smack a stud D in the mouth. And kickers could be facing a chance at a multitude of field goal attempts in a matchup only to see his offense dominate in the red zone, leaving him with extra point tries.

I think stats can help paint a picture of what to do with kickers and DSTs, but it's not worth a heavy time investment.

Defensive driving

What I thought we'd do this year is see what the difference was between the first, 10th, 12th, 14th and 16th-best DSTs over the last five years (use the size of your league to get an idea of the variance -- e.g., if you're in a 10-team league consider the 10th-best kicker). That should measure just how much stronger the top unit is compared to the fair units and mediocre ones. The 16th-best DST is worth knowing if only because it's the last of the top-half options for a given season.

Top DST 10th best 12th best 14th best 16th best
2012: Bears (253) Falcons (167) Rams (158) Giants (153) Ravens (149)
2011: Ravens (226) Steelers (177) Bills (167) Titans (162) Dolphins (155)
2010: Steelers (238) Chiefs (172) Buccaneers (170) Browns (167) Rams (161)
2009: Packers (239) Panthers (179) Bills (176) Steelers (172) Patriots (169)
2008: Steelers (289) Colts (171) Jets (168) Redskins (162) Cardinals (159)

First, take note of the overall production of the top-ranked DST, delivering on average 14 Fantasy points per game. That's not bad at all. Even if a DST totals 200 points at the end of the season that's 12.5 per game. The goal of every Fantasy owner should be to get a DST that hits that average. But that's not easy. Over the last five years no more than six teams per season have hit that mark. It's a delicate combination of high sack totals, high turnover totals and of course touchdowns scored that push a DST over 200 points.

The next "scoring tier" of DSTs figures to be those that score between 180 and 199 points. But there aren't many of those either -- again, no more than six teams in each of the past five years have scored in that range. And not one of the DSTs that finished 10th in our study produced 180 Fantasy points (11.3 per week).

Start comparing the 10th-best DSTs with the 12th through 16th-best ones and there's no real difference. Maybe 20 points between the 10th and 16th best. Negligible stuff. They're all the same.

Let's boil this down to a really simple premise: You want a DST that puts up points and you know how they put up points. Nothing helps a defense out like a great pass rush -- follow the defenses with impressive pass rushers along with aggressive defensive coordinators and you should be fine. Remember, pressure on the quarterback leads to turnovers and turnovers lead to touchdowns.

What about special-teams play? Maybe you could factor them in if yardage comes into play but with all of the re-tooling the league has done with kickoffs and punt returns there just aren't as many touchdowns. Last year there were a total of 18 punt returns for touchdowns and 13 kickoff returns for touchdowns. That's over 512 games, people. Don't waste your time studying the special-teams units.

If you whiff on getting a DST with a very good pass rush, opt to play the matchups from week to week. It's a little more time consuming because you have to add DSTs to your waiver-wire to-do list every week, but it's kind of fun. Just look for DSTs with favorable matchups and put in a claim for one of them. Then start them. Then after the week's over, cut them if you don't want to use them again. Repeat as necessary until you achieve desired results.

Here are some non-obvious DSTs to get you on your way to begin the year.

Early-season matchups Just Week 1
Browns (vs. MIA, at BAL, at MIN) Buccaneers (at NYJ)
Colts (vs. OAK, vs. MIA, at SF) Chiefs (at JAC)

Kicked up

The difference between the best kicker and the 10th-best kicker from year to year has been an average of 34.6 points. That's just over two points per game, and it's basically the same difference between the top kicker and the 16th-best kicker too!

Top kicker 10th best 12th best 14th best 16th best
2012: B. Walsh (161) C. Barth (135) D. Bailey (130) A. Vinatieri (123) S. Suisham (120)
2011: D. Akers (186) R. Bironas (133) M. Bryant (130) G. Gano (126) A. Henery (120)
2010: S. Janikowski (150) B. Cundiff (117) R. Gould (116) J. Feely (111) J. Scobee (111)
2009: N. Kaeding (152) J. Reed (122) K. Brown (110) R. Gould (109) S. Janikowski (107)
2008: S. Gostkowski (150) R. Bironas (129) R. Lindell (126) M. Prater (124) M. Stover (122)

Kickers are even more random than defenses. Their kicking chances depend on the efficiency of the offenses they play with. The offense can't be so good that they score all the time because it means fewer field goal tries. Only when the coach calls for a field goal does the kicker have the power in his hands, er, feet.

Opportunities are obviously important, relatively more important than a kicker's accuracy in fact. A kicker could make 90 percent of his field goals but what good does that do you when he only attempts 25 tries?

Over the last five years there have been only 29 instances where a kicker makes 30-plus field goals. Only once has a kicker nailed even 40 -- David Akers, 44 made in 2011. Akers also happens to be the only kicker to hit 30-plus field goals four times in the last five years. That's all well and good but he's on a new team this season. Sebastian Janikowski has the second-most 30-plus field goals made season with three.

We could dig in and see just how frequently coaches called on the field goal unit. One problem: Exactly half the head coaches in the league have been at this for four-plus seasons. Nine are entering their second or third seasons and seven coaches are making their NFL debuts in 2013. It's not fair to only research half the league and draw conclusions over which coaches kick the most often. It's also not fair to research which teams kick the most often because of all the mitigating factors that go into kicking.

Finding a foolproof way to draft elite kickers will have to wait. For now, just aim for the big legs on the best offenses. And do it with your last pick (or second-to-last pick if you pick late in the second-to-last round of your draft).

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Report: Former Browns DE Phillip Taylor visits Steelers
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(9/2/2015) A day after the Browns cut him, defensive end Phillip Taylor  visited the Steelers, according to NBCSports.com.

Cleveland paid Brown $5.47 million to not be a part of the organization on Tuesday. He was a first-round pick in 2011.


Saints place Vinnie Sunseri, Nick Toon, Ronald Powell on IR
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(9/2/2015) After going unclaimed on waivers, the Saints placed safety Vinnie Sunseri , receiver Nick Toon and linebacker Ronald Powell on injured reserve, according to The Times-Picayune.



Raiders sign LB Lorenzo Alexander
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9/2/2015) The Raiders signed veteran linebacker Lorenzo Alexander on Wednesday, the team announced. Alexander has played nine seasons in the NFL and totaled 179 tackles.

Former Bears linebacker Lance Briggs retires
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9/2/2015) Linebacker Lance Briggs announced his retirement from the NFL on Wednesday, reports ESPNChicago.com. Briggs played his entire 12-year career with the Bears totaling 1,177 tackles and 15 sacks.

Briggs later said on his Twitter account that he hasn't filed his retirement papers and nothing is official. 


Panthers sign QB Derek Anderson to contract extension
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9/2/2015) The Panthers reached a two-year contract extension with quarterback Derek Anderson, the team announced Wednesday.

"I’m excited about this for my family. To be here with the players, coaches and management we have – everything is top notch," Anderson said. "It was a no-brainer for me."

Anderson will backup Cam Newton. He was slated to become a free agent after the 2015 season.


Report: Bills RB LeSean McCoy may not be ready for Week 1
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9/2/2015) While Bills coach Rex Ryan recently said he was optimistic running back LeSean McCoy would be ready for the regular season opener, a source indicated to ESPN that McCoy's status for Week 1 is in jeopardy.

"Well we certainly expect him to be ready to go, I hope," Ryan said, per ESPN. "If not then the next man has to step up. Boobie [Dixon] got a lot of reps out there today. Bryce Brown got a lot of reps [Wednesday]. So we will see. I am not going to put that all on one man. If he is not ready to go, he won't be in there."

McCoy has not been able to play during the preseason after he suffered a hamstring injury at practice. He has been able to conduct some light footwork, agility and cardio drills, but his conditioning needs work.

"It's way too early to say whether [McCoy] will play or not. He is doing a little bit more every day. But hell yes, I'm concerned about that," the source said. "I can't say for sure he's going to be with us Week 1. I can't say that at all. It will take everything we got just to get him ready for game day, and then we get to game day [there's] no way he can be in great football shape. So I think he will be on a pitch count, I think at the very best."


Giants K Josh Brown dealing with bruised leg; sign K Chris Boswell
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9/2/2015) With Giants kicker Josh Brown trying to recover from a bruised leg, the team signed kicker Chris Boswell, reports the New York Daily News.

Boswell was signed to handle the kicking duties during Thursday's preseason finale. Brown reportedly suffered the injury while attempting to make a tackle during the second preseason game.


Report: Bills considering cutting QB Matt Cassel
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9/2/2015) The Bills are reportedly discussing releasing quarterback Matt Cassel, sources told WGR 550 in Buffalo. Cassel was competing for a starting spot, which he lost to Tyrod Taylor.

Report: Colts DT Arthur Jones needs ankle surgery
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9/2/2015) The 2015 season for Colts defensive tackle Arthur Jones is in doubt with the tackle reportedly needing surgery to repair torn ligaments in his ankle, sources told NFL.com.

Jones could be placed on the injured reserve/designated to return list. Jones produced 23 tackles and 1 1/2 sacks in nine games last season.


Bears acquire TE Khari Lee from Texans for draft pick
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(9/2/2015) The Texans traded tight end Khari Lee to the Bears on Wednesday, the Bears announced. In exchange for Lee, the Texans will receive a sixth-round draft pick in the 2017 draft.

 
 
 
Rankings