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2013 Draft Prep: Breakouts, 2.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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It's time to take our second look at breakouts for 2013.

Guys who qualify for this distinction are those on the verge of becoming stars, superstars or, in the case of C.J. Spiller, the best running back in the NFL.

You can see who I listed in this space back in July before the start of training camp, and the players I still stand behind include Andrew Luck, Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Shane Vereen, Randall Cobb, Danny Amendola and Jared Cook.

This updated version is to give you 10 more players to consider on Draft Day. All of these guys have the potential to be amazing in 2013.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: Adrian Peterson should be the first player drafted in all leagues. What he did in 2012, and what he should do again this season, warrants him being selected No. 1 overall. But if there's one player I had to pick who could challenge Peterson for the No. 1 running back spot it would be Spiller. He's that good. Spiller is going to be used "until he throws up," according to offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Last year, when Spiller replaced Fred Jackson, he had just 207 carries and 43 catches with only nine starts, and he was No. 7 in Fantasy points in a standard league. If he gets just 300 total touches -- all six running backs in front of him in Fantasy points (Peterson, Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Alfred Morris and Ray Rice) all had more than 300 touches -- he could dominate. So for fun, give him 255 carries and 45 catches at his same averages. That would give him 2,012 total yards (1,530 rushing, 482 receiving), and his touchdowns could increase from eight to 10. I think he'll get more work than that, and I like him at No. 2 overall. This is going to be a big year for Spiller.
I'd take him ahead of: Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch

DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys: Murray was a bust last season when he was drafted in the first round and failed to produce because of a foot injury. When healthy, Murray was solid with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league in five of the 10 games he played in and never having fewer than seven points. I'm counting on Murray playing at least 13 games this year, and he should finally live up to his potential. I'd gamble on Murray in the second round in standard leagues and early in the third round in PPR formats. It's always risky to gamble on injury-prone players, especially someone like Murray who has missed nine games in two seasons, but when talented guys do stay on the field they reward you in a big way. I'm counting on this being the year for Murray to do that.
I'd take him ahead of: Maurice Jones-Drew, Lamar Miller, David Wilson

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: Ingram comes into this season with likely his best chance to succeed, and he's not battling any nagging injuries. The Saints, with Sean Payton back calling plays, promise to give a little more emphasis to the run game, which would take pressure off their defense. Chris Ivory is gone, and Pierre Thomas (leg) has missed time during practice. Ingram showed some signs of life at the end of last season with double digits in Fantasy points in two of his final three games, and he closed the year with a touchdown in four of his final seven outings. We're not talking about a weekly starter with Ingram, but he could turn into a flex option. And the best part about him is you can draft him as your fourth running back in Round 9, which is great value given his upside.
I'd take him ahead of: DeAngelo Williams, Bernard Pierce, Bryce Brown

Montee Ball, RB, Broncos: The battle for the starting running back job in Denver is likely going to play out over the next couple of weeks, but it's hard to see Ball not being heavily involved. While Ronnie Hillman and even Knowshon Moreno should factor into the mix, Ball has the chance to lead the Broncos in rushing touchdowns with plenty of yards. He's struggled in the preseason and has played behind Hillman, but it's hard to gauge the performance for any of the running backs in Denver given their opponents through two games (San Francisco and Seattle). The good thing is the Broncos have a soft schedule, which should help Ball succeed, and he could be a vital cog late in games killing the clock. Based on his potential to score double digits in touchdowns, Ball could easily become a Top 20 Fantasy running back this year. But since he'll share time, especially early in the year with at least Hillman, he enters the season as a flex option (he also has to improve his pass protection). He's still someone I would buy into with a pick in Round 5 in standard leagues as a flex option based on his upside in an explosive offense.
I'd take him ahead of: Chris Ivory, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ryan Mathews

Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins: When Garcon was healthy in 2012 he was among the best receivers in the NFL. He had four games with double digits in Fantasy points in the eight games he was close to 100 percent. But Garcon missed six outings and was limited in two others with a toe problem, which he now says is manageable. There's always the risk of a setback, but Garcon has the ability to be a Top 10 Fantasy option with the Redskins. He's shown flashes of greatness before during his tenure with the Colts, but he's never reached 1,000 receiving yards or had more than six touchdowns. I'm expecting him to eclipse both those marks and have a career season, and he's a Top 15 Fantasy receiver coming into the year. He's a great No. 2 receiver to target beginning in Round 4 or 5 in the majority of leagues.
I'd take him ahead of: Eric Decker, Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: Brown ascends to the No. 1 receiver spot in Pittsburgh with Mike Wallace gone, and the Steelers will need him to play at a high level, especially with Heath Miller (ACL) banged up. Last year, Wallace and Miller combined for 36 red-zone targets and came away with 16 touchdowns. Brown closed 2012 with four touchdowns in his final four games, and he had a career-high five scores. He has the the chance to see that number rise, especially with the expected increase from his 106 targets last year. He should get back to 1,000-plus receiving yards like he had in 2011, and he has the chance for 75-plus catches. Brown has the potential to be a Top 20 Fantasy receiver, but he's falling to Round 6 as the No. 25 receiver off the board based on Average Draft Position. I'd gamble on Brown in Round 5 based on his upside.
I'd take him ahead of: Cecil Shorts, Jordy Nelson, Mike Wallace

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Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: Smith has posted nearly identical stats for two seasons in row of about 50 catches, 850 yards and seven touchdowns, but this is the year for him to improve. It's his third year in the NFL, which is when receivers tend to break out, and he's a prime candidate with the Ravens missing Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta. Smith is aware of this based on a conversation we had this offseason. "I'm improving every day," Smith said. "It's all about consistency. I was saying the same thing last year. Being consistent in my technique. Being consistent with everything. I grew in that way. Now it's about being consistent on offense." Smith should be drafted as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, but he could easily become a Top 20 option by the end of the year. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him get well over 1,000 receiving yards with double digits in touchdowns given his potential and the need of playmakers in the passing game for the Ravens.
I'd take him ahead of: Jordy Nelson, Mike Wallace, Steve Johnson

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts: It's hard to find a receiver having a better preseason than Hilton. Through two games he has five catches for 97 yards and two touchdowns, but the troubling thing is the Colts continue to use him as the third receiver behind Reggie Wayne and Darrius Heyward-Bey. There's no way Hilton should be behind Heyward-Bey, and you can argue he has more upside than Wayne. He's being drafted as the No. 29 receiver, but Hilton could easily be a weekly starter in the majority of leagues. He was a surprise rookie with 50 catches for 861 yards and seven touchdowns, but he can easily eclipse 1,000 yards while maintaining a healthy amount of scores. He's a receiver to be excited about this year, and hopefully the Colts keep him on the field as much as possible. With an increase in targets -- he only had 91 as a rookie -- he could be a dominant force.
I'd take him ahead of: Tavon Austin, Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson

DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: Once upon a time Jackson was on the verge of being the next big thing for Fantasy owners. He had consecutive seasons of 1,000 receiving yards and six touchdowns, but then came the ill-fated 2011 campaign. Jackson had his money on his mind, and it impacted his play. He hasn't been the same since, but Jackson's value is pointing up again. The addition of new coach Chip Kelly and the subtraction of receiver Jeremy Maclin (ACL) make Jackson a high-upside No. 3 Fantasy option. Michael Vick has to throw to someone, and Jackson should lead the Eagles in targets. He has to stay healthy after being out the final five games last year, and he has to hope Vick can stay upright as well. But if Jackson and Vick master this Kelly offense and play the majority of the season, we could see Jackson finally live up to his immense potential this year.
I'd take him ahead of: Kenny Britt, Steve Johnson, Mike Wallace

Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks: Tate went into the offseason as the No. 3 receiver for the Seahawks behind Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice, but come Week 1 he should be No. 1 on the depth chart. Harvin (hip) is out for majority of the year, and Rice (knee) should miss the entire preseason. It will fall on Tate to lead this passing game, and he's ready to dominate in a potential contract year. He had a third-year breakout type performance in 2012 with 45 catches for 688 yards and seven touchdowns -- which were all career highs -- but he should post better stats in 2013. CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reported that Tate has the chance to make a leap into the upper echelon of receivers this year, and the opportunity is there to make that happen. He's a great No. 3 Fantasy receiver to target in Round 9, which is where he's going based on ADP.
I'd take him ahead of: Anquan Boldin, Miles Austin, Greg Jennings

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg .

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Player News
Isaac Redman calls it quits
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:24 am ET) A spinal cord injury has ended the career of former Steelers running back Isaac Redman .

Redman tweeted his decision Friday. He added that he turned down offers from teams to potentially play after his release from Pittsburgh in October.

The 29-year-old Redman finishes his career with 1,148 yards rushing on 282 carries and 4.1 YPC.


Speculation: Contract issue keeping Vontaze Burfict out
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:51 am ET) Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict remains sidelined from practice Friday. The team has also not confirmed a multi-year contract extension with the second-year player.

It is unknown if there is a connection to the two facts. Speculation is that the deal has been held up by one side or the other.

The team listed a stomach ailment as the reason for his absence from practice Thursday.


Jets not ready to give up on unproductive Stephen Hill
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:33 am ET) Despite the fact that Stephen Hill has just one reception in the first two preseason games, Jets offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg has not given up on the 2012 second-round pick.

"I was pleased with his progress [last year] up until he got nicked and that he got nicked again," Mornhinweg told the New York Post. "This year he was even more impressive in the offseason and through training camp, with a few exceptions. There were a couple days there. So he's coming along. And in many cases, this is what happens, at all positions, but especially at the receiver position, that third year they make a pretty good jump. That's what we're looking for there."

The Jets are seeking a receiver to start opposite Eric Decker. David Nelson is another possibility, but his potential is not considered as strong as that of Hill, whose production fell off the table after a strong start in 2013.


Jamaal Charles all but ruled out for Saturday game
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:20 am ET) What was anticipated now appears official - Chiefs superback Jamaal Charles will not play Saturday against Minnesota.

Charles returned to practice Thursday after missing time with a bruised foot. But Andy Reid is taking the cautious approach with him.


Coach: Two-QB system on table for Browns down the road
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:16 am ET) Mike Pettine has confirmed that he and Browns offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan have considered a two-quarterback system down the road with a package featuring rookie Johnny Manziel "on the table."

Pettine announced this week that Brian Hoyer will start the season opener in Pittsburgh. He has indicated that any package involving Manziel will not yet be incorporated for that game.

"No, this is Brian's job," Pettine said. "I don't foresee us now, especially early, being in a two-quarterback system. This is Brian's job and I never think of it as a leash or we want a guy to be a game manager. ... I don't want our guys on offense to feel like there's any type of governor there and they can't just cut it loose and be aggressive."


James Laurinaitis questionable for Saturday game
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:07 am ET) Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis is only a maybe for the Saturday night game in Cleveland. An ankle injury could keep him sidelined for the third straight game.

Laurinaitis practiced this week and ramped up his activity every day. He did some full-team work Thursday, the last full-scale workout before the clash against the Browns in which the starters will receive the longest look of the preseason. Jeff Fisher sounded as if he could flip a coin to predict whether Laurinaitis will play.

"Don't know whether he's going to go; it will be very close," he told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Laurinaitis has racked up at least 114 tackles in each of his first five years in the NFL. He recorded a career-high 3 1/2 sacks in 2013.


Marshawn Lynch set to rack up carries in preseason clash
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(9:55 am ET) Pete Carroll said that "it's time" for featured back Marshawn Lynch to ramp up the reps. The result will be far more playing time Friday night against Chicago.

Carroll did not announce Thursday how long the starters would play, but did acknowledge that the third preseason game would be the one in which they play the most. They are likely to remain on the field into the third quarter, per the Everett Herald.

Lynch was in on just two plays in the last game without a carry. That is destined to change against the Bears.

"It's time for him to get some carries and get involved a little bit," Carroll said. "I could not be more pleased with the conditioning level that he's had, the consistency of practice and his preparation has been great. He'll be ready to go."


Brandon Bostick almost surely a no-go for season opener
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(9:40 am ET) The Packers have all but ruled out tight end Brandon Bostick for the Sept. 4 regular season opener in Seattle.

Bostick sustained a slight fracture of the fibula in his right leg while catching a pass Saturday in St. Louis. Sources have told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that the best-case scenario would be to have Bostick back on the field for the second or third game, though he could remain out into October.

He caught seven passes for 120 yards in 2013.


Anthony Hitchens works with first-team at middle linebacker
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(9:32 am ET) Redskins fourth-round pick Anthony Hitchens took all the first-team reps at middle linebacker in Thursday practice, per the Dallas News. He worked ahead of veteran Rolando McClain, who had missed the Wednesday session with cramps.

The development was necessitated by the loss for the season of linebacker DeVonte Holloman, who has sustained what could be a career-ending neck spinal injury. Hitchens was drafted to play on the outside, but has spent significant time in the middle.

"I'm just moving back and forth," Hitchens said. "I wouldn't be surprised if they moved me again. I'm just trying to learn as much as I can right now."


49ers not ready to award Steve Johnson No. 3 receiver role
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:31 am ET) The 49ers aren't ready to declare Steve Johnson as the team's No. 3 receiver. In fact, according to Comcast SportsNet Bay Area, the team won't "put numbers" on their receivers. Johnson is fight Brandon Lloyd, Quinton Patton, and rookie Bruce Ellington for snaps this preseason.

When asked if Johnson is the third wideout, offensive coordinator Greg Roman said: "It depends. It depends. I think we'll have some flexibility there."

 
 
 
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