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2013 Draft Prep: Busts, 2.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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The first time writing about busts prior to the start of training camp proved, unfortunately, to be prophetic about one player. Danario Alexander was on the list, and he's already out for the season with a torn ACL.

As I said in my initial look at potential busts a few weeks back, this isn't a fun story to write.

But as always, we have to share our thoughts with you about why some players could potentially struggle this season.

Then it's up to you on how to proceed on Draft Day. With that in mind, here are 10 additional bust candidates for 2013.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks: I originally listed Wilson at the bottom of my breakouts column as another option to consider, but that was when Percy Harvin was healthy. Since then, Harvin had hip surgery and will miss the majority of the season. Along with that, Sidney Rice had to go to Switzerland during training camp for a procedure on his knee. While Golden Tate is a breakout candidate -- he's the only receiver you can trust right now -- Wilson could struggle with two of his top targets banged up. The Seahawks also remain a run-first team, and Wilson and Robert Griffin III were the only Top 25 Fantasy quarterbacks with fewer than 400 pass attempts (393). He was incredibly efficient at 64.1 percent passing with just 10 interceptions, but replicating those stats will be difficult. He also said he doesn't want to run as much, and he had 489 rushing yards and four touchdowns last season. I don't expect Wilson to be a Top 10 Fantasy quarterback again, and he's just outside my Top 12 as a high-end backup.
I'd rather draft: Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick

Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Calling Foster a bust is painful because not only is he a great running back, he's also a good guy in general. But we're talking about his Fantasy value here, and it's not looking good. There are too many red flags based on where you have to draft him. He practiced for the first time on Friday heading into the third preseason game, first because of a calf injury and now with a back problem, which has caused pain in his legs. He's also coming off a season where he had 405 carries, including the playoffs, and 460 total touches, which is an unreal workload for any running back. He's also averaged 372 touches over the past three seasons, so a further breakdown is possible. Going one step further, the Texans have a quality backup in Ben Tate, who could help ease Foster's workload. He remains a first-round pick, for now, but I wouldn't draft him before No. 10 overall. And getting Tate as a handcuff in Round 6 or 7 is a must if you draft Foster.
I'd rather draft: Trent Richardson, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts: The hope is Bradshaw will be ready for the start of the season, but he just started practicing this week heading into the third preseason game because of right foot surgery -- which took place in January. He's had a history of foot problems, and it may just be catching up to him. Even when he does return, there's no guarantee he'll stay healthy for a full season. When healthy, Bradshaw is solid with at least 1,200 total yards and six touchdowns in two of the past three seasons, with 25 total touchdowns over that span. He's expected to start for the Colts, but he's becoming a risky commodity with each passing day. You can also expect to see him on the injury report on almost a weekly basis. He might not be worth the pick where he's going, which is the end of Round 6 based on his Average Draft Position.
I'd rather draft: Eddie Lacy, Rashard Mendenhall, Daryl Richardson

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DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Some owners may consider Williams a sleeper with Jonathan Stewart (ankle) banged up, but Stewart hasn't been ruled out for the year. Coach Ron Rivera also remains hopeful he could return for the season opener, although that seems unrealistic. Regardless, I have little faith in Williams even if he does start 16 games. He struggled as the starter for the majority of the season in 2012 when Stewart battled injuries. Williams had 10 games with double digits in carries but managed just one game over 100 rushing yards (Week 17 against lowly New Orleans) and five games with double digits in Fantasy points (two against the Saints). He also has minimal receiving skills with fewer than 16 catches in each of the past three years. On top of all that, he's 30 and plays with a quarterback in Cam Newton who dominates the offense, especially rushing the ball near the goal line. I'd rather gamble on a younger running back with upside than take Williams if I could avoid it.
I'd rather draft: Ben Tate, Ronnie Hillman, Mark Ingram

Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles: Brown had some sleeper potential when training camp started with the addition of coach Chip Kelly and his run-based offense. But Brown has been outplayed by Chris Polk in practice, and he's also dealt with a quad injury. Oh, and by the way, he's just the No. 2 running back at best behind LeSean McCoy, who isn't expected to sit much. Brown had two great games in 2012 when McCoy was dealing with a concussion for four games, but he also had two miserable ones. Brown should beat out Polk for the backup role behind McCoy, and he's worth drafting as a handcuff. But any thoughts of Brown being a potential flex option as long as McCoy is healthy because Kelly will run the ball a lot should be gone by now. It doesn't look like that's going to happen, and Brown is only worth a late-round pick.
I'd rather draft: Pierre Thomas, Bernard Pierce, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Wayne is still going to produce at a high level, but if you're expecting him to be a Top 15 Fantasy receiver like he was last year that's not likely to happen. In 2012, Wayne was rejuvenated with the addition of quarterback Andrew Luck and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. The latter called the fifth-most pass plays in the NFL last year, which allowed Wayne to be the second-most targeted receiver behind Calvin Johnson at 194. It's unlikely new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton will give Wayne that many attempts. Along with that, Wayne had just two touchdowns and one 100-yard game in the final eight outings and just five total touchdowns on the year. He's being drafted toward the end of Round 4, which is too soon in standard leagues, and this could be the point where Wayne's production starts to decline since he'll be 35 in November.
I'd rather draft: Danny Amendola, Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker

Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: Johnson has been the model of consistency the past three seasons with at least 76 catches, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns over that span. But I'm nervous about him this year. He's had a rough offseason and training camp with a broken back and hamstring problem, which he said continues to be an issue heading into the third preseason game. The Bills also have a new coach in Doug Marrone, who is committed to running the ball with C.J. Spiller. Buffalo also added two rookie receivers in Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin to take targets from Johnson. But the X-factor in all this is the quarterback situation for the Bills. If EJ Manuel (knee) is forced to miss any time, Kevin Kolb would be the starter. Remember how good Kolb was for Larry Fitzgerald the past two years? Yeah, I'd rather forget that as well.
I'd rather draft: Kenny Britt, Josh Gordon, Chris Givens

Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars: Shorts is an extremely talented receiver, and he's entering his third season, which could be a breakout year. But I'm nervous about his injuries and quarterback situation. Shorts dealt with two concussions in 2012, and hopefully that doesn't continue to be a problem this year. He also missed time in training camp with a calf injury. And then there's his quarterback. Blaine Gabbert is going to open the season as the starter, and that doesn't inspire confidence in Shorts posting quality stats. Now, Shorts could be great to start the year with Justin Blackmon (suspension) out, but keep in mind the majority of Shorts' production last year (nine games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league) came when Maurice Jones-Drew was hurt. The standout running back is healthy now, and he will be the focal point on offense. I don't have a problem with his ADP, which is Round 7 as the No. 30 receiver. But anyone considering him a starter could be left disappointed.
I'd rather draft: Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings: Last year, Rudolph was tied with Jimmy Graham for the second-most touchdowns among tight ends with nine, trailing only Rob Gronkowski (11). But Rudolph had just 53 catches for 493 yards. The yardage was the lowest among the Top 15 Fantasy tight ends. And he was just No. 11 among targets for tight ends at 93. Rudolph had five games with double digits in touchdowns in 2012, with three of them coming after Harvin was lost for the season with an ankle injury. The Vikings have replaced Harvin with Greg Jennings and rookie Cordarrelle Patterson, and they will take targets away from Rudolph. He was great in the red zone last year with eight touchdowns in 15 targets, and he should do well down there again. But if his touchdowns decline and he doesn't bring up his catches and yards then this could be a down year. Consider him a low-end starting tight end on Draft Day with a late-round pick.
I'd rather draft: Jermichael Finley, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen

Owen Daniels, TE, Texans: This mention is strictly being made because of ADP, since Daniels is being drafted as the No. 11 tight end. That's too high. I like Daniels as a Top 15 tight end, but I don't want him as my starter. He was good last season with 62 catches for 716 yards and six touchdowns, but that's about his ceiling, especially since the touchdowns were a career high. He had just four games with double digits in Fantasy points, but none after Week 9. And now the Texans appear to have the second receiver they've coveted for seemingly the past 10 years since Andre Johnson was drafted in rookie DeAndre Hopkins. In 14-team leagues or more you should consider Daniels a starter. But in 12-team formats you should only use Daniels as a bye-week or injury replacement. He's a safe Fantasy option, but there are tight ends out there with more upside this season.
I'd rather draft: Martellus Bennett, Jordan Cameron, Zach Sudfeld

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg .

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Player News
Bills place Mario Williams, Leodis McKelvin, Dan Carpenter on injury list
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(4:02 pm ET) The Bills placed DE Mario Williams, DB Leodis McKelvin and K Dan Carpenter on the non-football injury list, the team announced on Thursday. 

All three players can return from the list at any time, once they are medically cleared to play. The team didn't release any details on their injuries. 


Veteran LB Keith Rivers retires after signing with Cowboys
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(3:50 pm ET) Four months after signing with the Cowboys, veteran linebacker Keith Rivers has announced his retirement.

Rivers, who played with three different teams over the last four seasons, managed just 16 tackles in 12 games for Buffalo in 2014. Several injuries derailed his career after he had been selected in the first round by Cincinnati in 2008.


Falcons' Lamar Holmes on crutches, placed on PUP
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3:07 pm ET) Falcons tackle Lamar Holmes arrived at training camp Thursday morning on crutches and with his right foot in a protective boot. 

Holmes is recovering from a broken foot and clearly doesn't appear ready to start practicing with the team when camp opens on Friday. 

Holmes will open camp on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. The team placed him on PUP Thursday afternoon.


Falcons' Jake Matthews, Jon Asamoah cleared to practice
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3:03 pm ET) The Falcons had two offensive linemen cleared to practice on Thursday. 

Left tackle Jake Matthews, recovering from offseason foot surgery, will be able to participate in the team's first practice of training camp on Friday. His reps may be limited, however.

"It feels good," Matthews said, per the Atlanta Journal Constitution. "I'm ready to go. I'm cleared to do anything. When we start tomorrow, I will be out there and playing. I'm excited. It's been awhile." 

Right guard Jon Asamoah was also cleared to begin practice. He suffered an ankle injury in the offseason. 


Darren McFadden, Rolando McClain open Cowboys' camp on PUP
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(2:42 pm ET) The Cowboys opened training camp with two contributors on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. 

Running back Darren McFadden is still returning from a hamstring injury and will open camp on PUP. McFadden signed with the Cowboys in the offseason after spending the first seven years of his career with Oakland. 

In addition, linebacker Rolando McClain was also placed on PUP, as he continues to recover from offseason knee surgery. 

Both players can be taken off PUP at any time during camp, after they're medically cleared. McClain will have to serve a four-game suspension for substance abuse policy violation, however. 


Bengals sign rookie WR Desmond Lawrence
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(2:34 pm ET) The Bengals signed rookie free agent wide receiver Desmond Lawrence on Thursday, per the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Lawrence played in college at NC A&T. He spent part of OTAs as a free agent with Detroit. 


Dolphins' Branden Albert avoids PUP, says knee is fine
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(2:31 pm ET) Dolphins offensive lineman Branden Albert's surgically repaired right knee feels fine, he reported after a walk-through to open camp on Thursday. 

Albert ruptured his ACL and MCL last November. 

"It's been a long road. I'm just happy I'm not on that PUP list and I can be involved with the team. I'm not off on the side no more like a stepchild," Albert said, per the Palm Beach Post.


Ravens' Lardarius Webb fails conditioning test
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(1:12 pm ET) Ravens' cornerback Lardarius Webb wasn't on the field for the start of training camp on Wednesday, because he failed the team's conditioning test, per BaltimoreRavens.com.

Webb isn't the first Ravens' veteran to fail the test under coach John Harbaugh. "It's always a big deal," Harbaugh said. "It was a big deal when Jacoby [Jones] didn't pass it. It was a big deal when Haloti [Ngata] didn't pass it. It's always a big deal."

Harbaugh said that, while Webb was in good shape, "it's not the kind of anaerobic shape he needs to be in to come out here in practice. ... He's a little behind that way, certainly. And he's going to have to make up the ground."


Ravens' Breshad Perriman leaves practice with apparent injury
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(1:06 pm ET) Ravens first-round draft pick Breshad Perriman didn't make it through the first practice of training camp. 

Perriman left Wednesday's practice with an apparent knee injury, after he fell on his right knee while making a catch. 

Perriman was limping but left the field under his own power. 

"It's not serious. It's all sound," coach John Harbaugh said, per ESPN. "He'll be back as soon as his knee feels a little bit better. It could be as early as tomorrow or a couple of days at the most."


Packers' Jared Abbrederis goes down to injury in first practice
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:49 pm ET) Packers wide receiver Jared Abbrederis left the team's first training camp practice with an undisclosed injury. 

Abbrederis tore his ACL in the fourth practice last year, but this year's injury didn't appear to be related to that.

"The way he fell, I don't think it was his knee," coach Mike McCarthy said, indicating that Abbrederis may have landed hard on his tailbone, per the Journal-Sentinel.


 
 
 
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