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2013 Draft Prep: Busts, 2.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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The first time writing about busts prior to the start of training camp proved, unfortunately, to be prophetic about one player. Danario Alexander was on the list, and he's already out for the season with a torn ACL.

As I said in my initial look at potential busts a few weeks back, this isn't a fun story to write.

But as always, we have to share our thoughts with you about why some players could potentially struggle this season.

Then it's up to you on how to proceed on Draft Day. With that in mind, here are 10 additional bust candidates for 2013.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks: I originally listed Wilson at the bottom of my breakouts column as another option to consider, but that was when Percy Harvin was healthy. Since then, Harvin had hip surgery and will miss the majority of the season. Along with that, Sidney Rice had to go to Switzerland during training camp for a procedure on his knee. While Golden Tate is a breakout candidate -- he's the only receiver you can trust right now -- Wilson could struggle with two of his top targets banged up. The Seahawks also remain a run-first team, and Wilson and Robert Griffin III were the only Top 25 Fantasy quarterbacks with fewer than 400 pass attempts (393). He was incredibly efficient at 64.1 percent passing with just 10 interceptions, but replicating those stats will be difficult. He also said he doesn't want to run as much, and he had 489 rushing yards and four touchdowns last season. I don't expect Wilson to be a Top 10 Fantasy quarterback again, and he's just outside my Top 12 as a high-end backup.
I'd rather draft: Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick

Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Calling Foster a bust is painful because not only is he a great running back, he's also a good guy in general. But we're talking about his Fantasy value here, and it's not looking good. There are too many red flags based on where you have to draft him. He practiced for the first time on Friday heading into the third preseason game, first because of a calf injury and now with a back problem, which has caused pain in his legs. He's also coming off a season where he had 405 carries, including the playoffs, and 460 total touches, which is an unreal workload for any running back. He's also averaged 372 touches over the past three seasons, so a further breakdown is possible. Going one step further, the Texans have a quality backup in Ben Tate, who could help ease Foster's workload. He remains a first-round pick, for now, but I wouldn't draft him before No. 10 overall. And getting Tate as a handcuff in Round 6 or 7 is a must if you draft Foster.
I'd rather draft: Trent Richardson, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts: The hope is Bradshaw will be ready for the start of the season, but he just started practicing this week heading into the third preseason game because of right foot surgery -- which took place in January. He's had a history of foot problems, and it may just be catching up to him. Even when he does return, there's no guarantee he'll stay healthy for a full season. When healthy, Bradshaw is solid with at least 1,200 total yards and six touchdowns in two of the past three seasons, with 25 total touchdowns over that span. He's expected to start for the Colts, but he's becoming a risky commodity with each passing day. You can also expect to see him on the injury report on almost a weekly basis. He might not be worth the pick where he's going, which is the end of Round 6 based on his Average Draft Position.
I'd rather draft: Eddie Lacy, Rashard Mendenhall, Daryl Richardson

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DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Some owners may consider Williams a sleeper with Jonathan Stewart (ankle) banged up, but Stewart hasn't been ruled out for the year. Coach Ron Rivera also remains hopeful he could return for the season opener, although that seems unrealistic. Regardless, I have little faith in Williams even if he does start 16 games. He struggled as the starter for the majority of the season in 2012 when Stewart battled injuries. Williams had 10 games with double digits in carries but managed just one game over 100 rushing yards (Week 17 against lowly New Orleans) and five games with double digits in Fantasy points (two against the Saints). He also has minimal receiving skills with fewer than 16 catches in each of the past three years. On top of all that, he's 30 and plays with a quarterback in Cam Newton who dominates the offense, especially rushing the ball near the goal line. I'd rather gamble on a younger running back with upside than take Williams if I could avoid it.
I'd rather draft: Ben Tate, Ronnie Hillman, Mark Ingram

Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles: Brown had some sleeper potential when training camp started with the addition of coach Chip Kelly and his run-based offense. But Brown has been outplayed by Chris Polk in practice, and he's also dealt with a quad injury. Oh, and by the way, he's just the No. 2 running back at best behind LeSean McCoy, who isn't expected to sit much. Brown had two great games in 2012 when McCoy was dealing with a concussion for four games, but he also had two miserable ones. Brown should beat out Polk for the backup role behind McCoy, and he's worth drafting as a handcuff. But any thoughts of Brown being a potential flex option as long as McCoy is healthy because Kelly will run the ball a lot should be gone by now. It doesn't look like that's going to happen, and Brown is only worth a late-round pick.
I'd rather draft: Pierre Thomas, Bernard Pierce, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Wayne is still going to produce at a high level, but if you're expecting him to be a Top 15 Fantasy receiver like he was last year that's not likely to happen. In 2012, Wayne was rejuvenated with the addition of quarterback Andrew Luck and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. The latter called the fifth-most pass plays in the NFL last year, which allowed Wayne to be the second-most targeted receiver behind Calvin Johnson at 194. It's unlikely new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton will give Wayne that many attempts. Along with that, Wayne had just two touchdowns and one 100-yard game in the final eight outings and just five total touchdowns on the year. He's being drafted toward the end of Round 4, which is too soon in standard leagues, and this could be the point where Wayne's production starts to decline since he'll be 35 in November.
I'd rather draft: Danny Amendola, Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker

Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: Johnson has been the model of consistency the past three seasons with at least 76 catches, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns over that span. But I'm nervous about him this year. He's had a rough offseason and training camp with a broken back and hamstring problem, which he said continues to be an issue heading into the third preseason game. The Bills also have a new coach in Doug Marrone, who is committed to running the ball with C.J. Spiller. Buffalo also added two rookie receivers in Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin to take targets from Johnson. But the X-factor in all this is the quarterback situation for the Bills. If EJ Manuel (knee) is forced to miss any time, Kevin Kolb would be the starter. Remember how good Kolb was for Larry Fitzgerald the past two years? Yeah, I'd rather forget that as well.
I'd rather draft: Kenny Britt, Josh Gordon, Chris Givens

Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars: Shorts is an extremely talented receiver, and he's entering his third season, which could be a breakout year. But I'm nervous about his injuries and quarterback situation. Shorts dealt with two concussions in 2012, and hopefully that doesn't continue to be a problem this year. He also missed time in training camp with a calf injury. And then there's his quarterback. Blaine Gabbert is going to open the season as the starter, and that doesn't inspire confidence in Shorts posting quality stats. Now, Shorts could be great to start the year with Justin Blackmon (suspension) out, but keep in mind the majority of Shorts' production last year (nine games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league) came when Maurice Jones-Drew was hurt. The standout running back is healthy now, and he will be the focal point on offense. I don't have a problem with his ADP, which is Round 7 as the No. 30 receiver. But anyone considering him a starter could be left disappointed.
I'd rather draft: Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings: Last year, Rudolph was tied with Jimmy Graham for the second-most touchdowns among tight ends with nine, trailing only Rob Gronkowski (11). But Rudolph had just 53 catches for 493 yards. The yardage was the lowest among the Top 15 Fantasy tight ends. And he was just No. 11 among targets for tight ends at 93. Rudolph had five games with double digits in touchdowns in 2012, with three of them coming after Harvin was lost for the season with an ankle injury. The Vikings have replaced Harvin with Greg Jennings and rookie Cordarrelle Patterson, and they will take targets away from Rudolph. He was great in the red zone last year with eight touchdowns in 15 targets, and he should do well down there again. But if his touchdowns decline and he doesn't bring up his catches and yards then this could be a down year. Consider him a low-end starting tight end on Draft Day with a late-round pick.
I'd rather draft: Jermichael Finley, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen

Owen Daniels, TE, Texans: This mention is strictly being made because of ADP, since Daniels is being drafted as the No. 11 tight end. That's too high. I like Daniels as a Top 15 tight end, but I don't want him as my starter. He was good last season with 62 catches for 716 yards and six touchdowns, but that's about his ceiling, especially since the touchdowns were a career high. He had just four games with double digits in Fantasy points, but none after Week 9. And now the Texans appear to have the second receiver they've coveted for seemingly the past 10 years since Andre Johnson was drafted in rookie DeAndre Hopkins. In 14-team leagues or more you should consider Daniels a starter. But in 12-team formats you should only use Daniels as a bye-week or injury replacement. He's a safe Fantasy option, but there are tight ends out there with more upside this season.
I'd rather draft: Martellus Bennett, Jordan Cameron, Zach Sudfeld

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg .

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Player News
Matt Bryant misses only field goal, still puts up points
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1:28 am ET) Falcons kicker Matt Bryant managed points despite missing his only field goal attempt.

With time running out in the second quarter, Bryant lined up for a 59 yard attempt. He missed wide left. While that was the only field goal attempt he received, Bryant actually got a ton of work. He hit all eight of his extra point attempts, finding a way to put points on the board.

Bryant will take on the Vikings Week 4. 


Falcons DST wrecks havoc on Bucs Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1:24 am ET) The Falcons DST had a big game Thursday against the Buccaneers. 

Atlanta held the Bucs without a score until 8:46 was left in the game. The team was already ahead 56-0 at that point. Some of those points came as a result of strong defensive play. Atlanta managed one defensive touchdown after picking off Josh McCown. Devin Hester also returned a punt, putting Atlanta on the board for a second time. Overall, the team forced five fumbles, four of which were recovered. 

Atlanta will look for more Week 4 against the Vikings. 


Falcons backups get on the board Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1:15 am ET) The Falcons backups made an impact Thursday against the Buccaneers.

With the team up by a ton, Atlanta started using their subs in the third quarter. Jacquizz Rodgers received five carries for 6 yards. Rodgers also caught a pass for 3 yards.

Eric Weems seemed to be the biggest beneficiary, hauling in four passes for 69 yards. Fullback Patrick DiMarco gained 35 yards on three catches. Levine Toilolo also contributed, catching two passes for 25 yards. Courtney Roby picked up 11 yards on one reception. 

They'll take on the Vikings Week 4. 


Harry Douglas picks up a score before leaving
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1:11 am ET) Falcons receiver Harry Douglas manages to catch a touchdown before exiting Thursday's game.

Douglas caught two balls for 14 yards. He hauled in a 3 yard score on the team's first drive of the game. He injured himself with four minutes left in the second quarter, and did not return to the game. 

If Douglas can play, he'll take on the Vikings Week 4. 


Devin Hester makes big impact Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1:08 am ET) Falcons wide receiver Devin Hester made a big impact Thursday against the Buccaneers.

Hester caught just one ball for 25 yards, but found a way to make an impact in other places. He managed to score on his only carry, running in a 20 yard touchdown. Hester then managed to score on a punt return, breaking the NFL record for return touchdowns. He did so with former record holder Deion Sanders watching the game. Hester would leave the game twice due to cramping.

He'll take on the Vikings Week 4. 


Julio Jones dominates Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1:04 am ET) Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones turned in a fantastic performance Thursday against the Buccaneers. 

Jones hauled in nine passes for 161 yards and two scores. The Bucs had no answer for Jones on defense, even though Jones was Atlanta's only healthy weapon. After making a ridiculous catch on a 40-yard touchdown, Jones left the game. At that point, the team was up 42-0. Jones received a team-high 11 targets. 

Jones will take on the Vikings Week 4. 


Devonta Freeman gets 11 carries Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:59 am ET) Falcons running back Devonta Freeman got 11 carries Thursday against the Buccaneers. 

Freeman got most of his work after Steven Jackson was taken out of the game. Freeman did little to distinguish himself, though the Bucs defense was basically selling out against the run. Freeman gained just 12 yards on his 11 carries. He caught one pass for 7 yards. 

Freeman will take on the Vikings Week 4. 


Antone Smith breaks off a big run Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:55 am ET) Falcons running back Antone Smith managed to rip off a score Thursday against the Buccaneers.

Smith received two carries when the game was still in reach, but made his big play with the game already in hand. After Steven Jackson left the game, Smith got two carries on the next drive. The first went for -2 yards, but the second was much more exciting. Smith broke a 38 yard score. He managed to beat the defense to the outside, and out-ran everyone to the end zone. Smith finished with four carries for 50 yards. 

Smith will take on the Vikings Week 4. 


Steven Jackson runs one in Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:42 am ET) Falcons running back Steven Jackson managed to run in a score Thursday against the Falcons.

Jackson didn't get a ton of work, as the Falcons took a commanding lead early. He ran the ball 14 times for 54 yards. He scored his only touchdown in the third quarter. With the team already up 49-0, Jackson managed to pick up a 2 yard score. The run was impressive, as Jackson broke two or three tackles on the play. The team then went to other backs, opting to keep Jackson fresh.

Jackson will take on the Vikings Week 4. 


T.J. Yates gets some time Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:37 am ET) Falcons quarterback T.J. Yates saw some time Thursday against the Falcons.

Yates completed 3 of 4 passes for 64 yards. His only incompletion was a big one, as the Buccaneers managed to intercept and run back the pass for a score. 

Yates will take on the Vikings Week 4. 


 
 
 
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