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2013 Draft Prep: Busts, 2.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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The first time writing about busts prior to the start of training camp proved, unfortunately, to be prophetic about one player. Danario Alexander was on the list, and he's already out for the season with a torn ACL.

As I said in my initial look at potential busts a few weeks back, this isn't a fun story to write.

But as always, we have to share our thoughts with you about why some players could potentially struggle this season.

Then it's up to you on how to proceed on Draft Day. With that in mind, here are 10 additional bust candidates for 2013.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks: I originally listed Wilson at the bottom of my breakouts column as another option to consider, but that was when Percy Harvin was healthy. Since then, Harvin had hip surgery and will miss the majority of the season. Along with that, Sidney Rice had to go to Switzerland during training camp for a procedure on his knee. While Golden Tate is a breakout candidate -- he's the only receiver you can trust right now -- Wilson could struggle with two of his top targets banged up. The Seahawks also remain a run-first team, and Wilson and Robert Griffin III were the only Top 25 Fantasy quarterbacks with fewer than 400 pass attempts (393). He was incredibly efficient at 64.1 percent passing with just 10 interceptions, but replicating those stats will be difficult. He also said he doesn't want to run as much, and he had 489 rushing yards and four touchdowns last season. I don't expect Wilson to be a Top 10 Fantasy quarterback again, and he's just outside my Top 12 as a high-end backup.
I'd rather draft: Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick

Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Calling Foster a bust is painful because not only is he a great running back, he's also a good guy in general. But we're talking about his Fantasy value here, and it's not looking good. There are too many red flags based on where you have to draft him. He practiced for the first time on Friday heading into the third preseason game, first because of a calf injury and now with a back problem, which has caused pain in his legs. He's also coming off a season where he had 405 carries, including the playoffs, and 460 total touches, which is an unreal workload for any running back. He's also averaged 372 touches over the past three seasons, so a further breakdown is possible. Going one step further, the Texans have a quality backup in Ben Tate, who could help ease Foster's workload. He remains a first-round pick, for now, but I wouldn't draft him before No. 10 overall. And getting Tate as a handcuff in Round 6 or 7 is a must if you draft Foster.
I'd rather draft: Trent Richardson, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts: The hope is Bradshaw will be ready for the start of the season, but he just started practicing this week heading into the third preseason game because of right foot surgery -- which took place in January. He's had a history of foot problems, and it may just be catching up to him. Even when he does return, there's no guarantee he'll stay healthy for a full season. When healthy, Bradshaw is solid with at least 1,200 total yards and six touchdowns in two of the past three seasons, with 25 total touchdowns over that span. He's expected to start for the Colts, but he's becoming a risky commodity with each passing day. You can also expect to see him on the injury report on almost a weekly basis. He might not be worth the pick where he's going, which is the end of Round 6 based on his Average Draft Position.
I'd rather draft: Eddie Lacy, Rashard Mendenhall, Daryl Richardson

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DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Some owners may consider Williams a sleeper with Jonathan Stewart (ankle) banged up, but Stewart hasn't been ruled out for the year. Coach Ron Rivera also remains hopeful he could return for the season opener, although that seems unrealistic. Regardless, I have little faith in Williams even if he does start 16 games. He struggled as the starter for the majority of the season in 2012 when Stewart battled injuries. Williams had 10 games with double digits in carries but managed just one game over 100 rushing yards (Week 17 against lowly New Orleans) and five games with double digits in Fantasy points (two against the Saints). He also has minimal receiving skills with fewer than 16 catches in each of the past three years. On top of all that, he's 30 and plays with a quarterback in Cam Newton who dominates the offense, especially rushing the ball near the goal line. I'd rather gamble on a younger running back with upside than take Williams if I could avoid it.
I'd rather draft: Ben Tate, Ronnie Hillman, Mark Ingram

Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles: Brown had some sleeper potential when training camp started with the addition of coach Chip Kelly and his run-based offense. But Brown has been outplayed by Chris Polk in practice, and he's also dealt with a quad injury. Oh, and by the way, he's just the No. 2 running back at best behind LeSean McCoy, who isn't expected to sit much. Brown had two great games in 2012 when McCoy was dealing with a concussion for four games, but he also had two miserable ones. Brown should beat out Polk for the backup role behind McCoy, and he's worth drafting as a handcuff. But any thoughts of Brown being a potential flex option as long as McCoy is healthy because Kelly will run the ball a lot should be gone by now. It doesn't look like that's going to happen, and Brown is only worth a late-round pick.
I'd rather draft: Pierre Thomas, Bernard Pierce, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Wayne is still going to produce at a high level, but if you're expecting him to be a Top 15 Fantasy receiver like he was last year that's not likely to happen. In 2012, Wayne was rejuvenated with the addition of quarterback Andrew Luck and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. The latter called the fifth-most pass plays in the NFL last year, which allowed Wayne to be the second-most targeted receiver behind Calvin Johnson at 194. It's unlikely new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton will give Wayne that many attempts. Along with that, Wayne had just two touchdowns and one 100-yard game in the final eight outings and just five total touchdowns on the year. He's being drafted toward the end of Round 4, which is too soon in standard leagues, and this could be the point where Wayne's production starts to decline since he'll be 35 in November.
I'd rather draft: Danny Amendola, Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker

Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: Johnson has been the model of consistency the past three seasons with at least 76 catches, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns over that span. But I'm nervous about him this year. He's had a rough offseason and training camp with a broken back and hamstring problem, which he said continues to be an issue heading into the third preseason game. The Bills also have a new coach in Doug Marrone, who is committed to running the ball with C.J. Spiller. Buffalo also added two rookie receivers in Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin to take targets from Johnson. But the X-factor in all this is the quarterback situation for the Bills. If EJ Manuel (knee) is forced to miss any time, Kevin Kolb would be the starter. Remember how good Kolb was for Larry Fitzgerald the past two years? Yeah, I'd rather forget that as well.
I'd rather draft: Kenny Britt, Josh Gordon, Chris Givens

Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars: Shorts is an extremely talented receiver, and he's entering his third season, which could be a breakout year. But I'm nervous about his injuries and quarterback situation. Shorts dealt with two concussions in 2012, and hopefully that doesn't continue to be a problem this year. He also missed time in training camp with a calf injury. And then there's his quarterback. Blaine Gabbert is going to open the season as the starter, and that doesn't inspire confidence in Shorts posting quality stats. Now, Shorts could be great to start the year with Justin Blackmon (suspension) out, but keep in mind the majority of Shorts' production last year (nine games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league) came when Maurice Jones-Drew was hurt. The standout running back is healthy now, and he will be the focal point on offense. I don't have a problem with his ADP, which is Round 7 as the No. 30 receiver. But anyone considering him a starter could be left disappointed.
I'd rather draft: Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings: Last year, Rudolph was tied with Jimmy Graham for the second-most touchdowns among tight ends with nine, trailing only Rob Gronkowski (11). But Rudolph had just 53 catches for 493 yards. The yardage was the lowest among the Top 15 Fantasy tight ends. And he was just No. 11 among targets for tight ends at 93. Rudolph had five games with double digits in touchdowns in 2012, with three of them coming after Harvin was lost for the season with an ankle injury. The Vikings have replaced Harvin with Greg Jennings and rookie Cordarrelle Patterson, and they will take targets away from Rudolph. He was great in the red zone last year with eight touchdowns in 15 targets, and he should do well down there again. But if his touchdowns decline and he doesn't bring up his catches and yards then this could be a down year. Consider him a low-end starting tight end on Draft Day with a late-round pick.
I'd rather draft: Jermichael Finley, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen

Owen Daniels, TE, Texans: This mention is strictly being made because of ADP, since Daniels is being drafted as the No. 11 tight end. That's too high. I like Daniels as a Top 15 tight end, but I don't want him as my starter. He was good last season with 62 catches for 716 yards and six touchdowns, but that's about his ceiling, especially since the touchdowns were a career high. He had just four games with double digits in Fantasy points, but none after Week 9. And now the Texans appear to have the second receiver they've coveted for seemingly the past 10 years since Andre Johnson was drafted in rookie DeAndre Hopkins. In 14-team leagues or more you should consider Daniels a starter. But in 12-team formats you should only use Daniels as a bye-week or injury replacement. He's a safe Fantasy option, but there are tight ends out there with more upside this season.
I'd rather draft: Martellus Bennett, Jordan Cameron, Zach Sudfeld

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg .

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Player News
Giants' Antrel Rolle says he's hitting free-agent market
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(6:13 pm ET) During an interview with ESPN Radio, Giants safety Antrel Rolle said he is heading toward free agency, reports the New York Daily News.

Negotiations between Rolle and the Giants have not gone well, but Rolle did not rule out re-signing with the Giants. If no deal can be worked out, Rolle will become a free agent March 10.

"This is strictly a business move," Rolle said. "If there's 32 teams interested, I'm going to listen to all 32 teams."


Panthers give TE Greg Olsen a three-year extension
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(5:29 pm ET) The Panthers announced they signed tight end Greg Olsen to a three-year contract extension on Thursday that will keep him in Carolina through the 2018 season, per the team's official website. The extension is worth $22.5 million, with a $12 million signing bonus, according to CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora.

Olsen, 29, is fresh off a career year after setting franchise records for receptions (84) and receiving yards (1,008) by a tight end in a season. He cracked the 1,000-yard threshold for the first time in eight seasons in the NFL. He has 5,188 yards and 52 touchdowns in his career, and is the only tight end to catch at least five touchdown passes every year since 2008.


Broncos re-sign long snapper Aaron Brewer
(5:27 pm ET) The Broncos have re-signed long snapper Aaron Brewer to a four-yeal deal Thursday, according to the team's official website. The deal will keep him with the team through 2018.

The former undrafted free agent has been with the Broncos for three years.  Since being signed, he's played on every punt, field goal and extra point snap.


49ers sign receiver Jerome Simpson to two-year contract
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:26 pm ET) The 49ers announced they've signed veteran receiver Jerome Simpson to a two-year deal on Thursday. 

Simpson, 6-foot-2, 190 pounds, was a former second-round draft selection by the Bengals in 2008. He was last with the Vikings and totaled a single-season best 726 receiving yards in 2013. 

He didn't play in 2014 after the Vikings cut him following a three-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy. 


Colts extend qualifying offer to RFA Jerrell Freeman
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:21 pm ET) The Colts gave linebacker Jerrell Freeman, a restricted free agent, a qualifying offer, the organization announced on Thursday. 

The Colts also placed tenders on exclusive-rights free agents OLB Daniel Adongo, RB Dan Herron and OLB Cam Johnson.


Raiders part ways with LaMarr Woodley after one season
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(5:18 pm ET) As expected, the Raiders have released defensive end LaMarr Woodley on Thursday, per the team's official website.

Woodley, 30, spent his first seven seasons in Pittsburgh before he signed a two-year contract with the Raiders last offseason. He had just five tackles last season with the Raiders, and 304 tackles (57 sacks) through eight seasons in the league. He was scheduled to make $3.85 million with a salary cap hit of $5.1875 million.  


Chiefs release linebacker Joe Mays
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:06 pm ET) The Chiefs have decided to part ways with veteran linebacker Joe Mays, the organization announced on Thursday. 

The move, according to the Kansas City Star, will save the club $2.7 million in cap space. He was slated to earn a base salary of $2.35 million, with a roster bonus of $300,000 and a workout bonus of $50,000. 

Mays appeared in eight games in 2014 and totaled 20 tackles and one fumble recovery. 


Maurice Jones-Drew calls it a career after nine seasons
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(5:00 pm ET) After nine seasons in the league, Maurice Jones-Drew announced his retirement from professional football via Twitter on Thursday. The 29-year-old running back released the following statement:

"After much discussion with my family and business team during the offseason, I've decided to retire from the National Football League. The past nine years were absolutely amazing! I'll be forever grateful to the countless people who have assisted me throughout my NFL journey. To my fans, and NFL fans worldwide, you are the absolute greatest! But for you, our league would not exist. Football has been a central part of my life over the past 24 years. But, now I'm excited and looking forward to the next chapter of my life."

Jones-Drew was drafted 60th overall by the Jaguars in 2006, and spent his first eight seasons in Jacksonville before an injury-riddled 2014 campaign with the Raiders.

The three-time Pro Bowler and one-time first team All Pro selection won the rushing titles in 2011 with 1,606 rushing yards. Jones-Drew was never able to play a full season due to several injuries. He combined for 1,313 rushing yards the next three seasons after he was the league's top rusher.


Report: Eagles, Giants to pursue S Devin McCourty
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4:59 pm ET) The Eagles and Giants will both pursue soon-to-be free agent safety Devin McCourty when the new league year begins next week, according to a report from NBC Washington. 

McCourty was not franchised by the Patriots on Monday and will therefore hit the market. He acknowledged earlier this week that he may not be back in New England next season. 

The Eagles are reportedly very interested in McCourty and have him high on their free agent board.

After recent roster moves, which included trading running back LeSean McCoy for linebacker Kiko Alonso, the Eagles are expected to have an estimated $50 million in cap space when free agency begins. 


Report: Giants giving tender to cornerback Chandler Fenner
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4:47 pm ET) Cornerback Chandler Fenner will be with the Giants in 2015. 

According to the New York Daily News, the Giants are placing a tender on Fenner, who is an exclusive-rights free agent. The tender will be worth $510,000 for the 2015 season.

Fenner appeared in 11 games during the 2014 season.  


 
 
 
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