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2013 Draft Prep: Busts, 2.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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The first time writing about busts prior to the start of training camp proved, unfortunately, to be prophetic about one player. Danario Alexander was on the list, and he's already out for the season with a torn ACL.

As I said in my initial look at potential busts a few weeks back, this isn't a fun story to write.

But as always, we have to share our thoughts with you about why some players could potentially struggle this season.

Then it's up to you on how to proceed on Draft Day. With that in mind, here are 10 additional bust candidates for 2013.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks: I originally listed Wilson at the bottom of my breakouts column as another option to consider, but that was when Percy Harvin was healthy. Since then, Harvin had hip surgery and will miss the majority of the season. Along with that, Sidney Rice had to go to Switzerland during training camp for a procedure on his knee. While Golden Tate is a breakout candidate -- he's the only receiver you can trust right now -- Wilson could struggle with two of his top targets banged up. The Seahawks also remain a run-first team, and Wilson and Robert Griffin III were the only Top 25 Fantasy quarterbacks with fewer than 400 pass attempts (393). He was incredibly efficient at 64.1 percent passing with just 10 interceptions, but replicating those stats will be difficult. He also said he doesn't want to run as much, and he had 489 rushing yards and four touchdowns last season. I don't expect Wilson to be a Top 10 Fantasy quarterback again, and he's just outside my Top 12 as a high-end backup.
I'd rather draft: Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick

Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Calling Foster a bust is painful because not only is he a great running back, he's also a good guy in general. But we're talking about his Fantasy value here, and it's not looking good. There are too many red flags based on where you have to draft him. He practiced for the first time on Friday heading into the third preseason game, first because of a calf injury and now with a back problem, which has caused pain in his legs. He's also coming off a season where he had 405 carries, including the playoffs, and 460 total touches, which is an unreal workload for any running back. He's also averaged 372 touches over the past three seasons, so a further breakdown is possible. Going one step further, the Texans have a quality backup in Ben Tate, who could help ease Foster's workload. He remains a first-round pick, for now, but I wouldn't draft him before No. 10 overall. And getting Tate as a handcuff in Round 6 or 7 is a must if you draft Foster.
I'd rather draft: Trent Richardson, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts: The hope is Bradshaw will be ready for the start of the season, but he just started practicing this week heading into the third preseason game because of right foot surgery -- which took place in January. He's had a history of foot problems, and it may just be catching up to him. Even when he does return, there's no guarantee he'll stay healthy for a full season. When healthy, Bradshaw is solid with at least 1,200 total yards and six touchdowns in two of the past three seasons, with 25 total touchdowns over that span. He's expected to start for the Colts, but he's becoming a risky commodity with each passing day. You can also expect to see him on the injury report on almost a weekly basis. He might not be worth the pick where he's going, which is the end of Round 6 based on his Average Draft Position.
I'd rather draft: Eddie Lacy, Rashard Mendenhall, Daryl Richardson

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DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Some owners may consider Williams a sleeper with Jonathan Stewart (ankle) banged up, but Stewart hasn't been ruled out for the year. Coach Ron Rivera also remains hopeful he could return for the season opener, although that seems unrealistic. Regardless, I have little faith in Williams even if he does start 16 games. He struggled as the starter for the majority of the season in 2012 when Stewart battled injuries. Williams had 10 games with double digits in carries but managed just one game over 100 rushing yards (Week 17 against lowly New Orleans) and five games with double digits in Fantasy points (two against the Saints). He also has minimal receiving skills with fewer than 16 catches in each of the past three years. On top of all that, he's 30 and plays with a quarterback in Cam Newton who dominates the offense, especially rushing the ball near the goal line. I'd rather gamble on a younger running back with upside than take Williams if I could avoid it.
I'd rather draft: Ben Tate, Ronnie Hillman, Mark Ingram

Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles: Brown had some sleeper potential when training camp started with the addition of coach Chip Kelly and his run-based offense. But Brown has been outplayed by Chris Polk in practice, and he's also dealt with a quad injury. Oh, and by the way, he's just the No. 2 running back at best behind LeSean McCoy, who isn't expected to sit much. Brown had two great games in 2012 when McCoy was dealing with a concussion for four games, but he also had two miserable ones. Brown should beat out Polk for the backup role behind McCoy, and he's worth drafting as a handcuff. But any thoughts of Brown being a potential flex option as long as McCoy is healthy because Kelly will run the ball a lot should be gone by now. It doesn't look like that's going to happen, and Brown is only worth a late-round pick.
I'd rather draft: Pierre Thomas, Bernard Pierce, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Wayne is still going to produce at a high level, but if you're expecting him to be a Top 15 Fantasy receiver like he was last year that's not likely to happen. In 2012, Wayne was rejuvenated with the addition of quarterback Andrew Luck and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. The latter called the fifth-most pass plays in the NFL last year, which allowed Wayne to be the second-most targeted receiver behind Calvin Johnson at 194. It's unlikely new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton will give Wayne that many attempts. Along with that, Wayne had just two touchdowns and one 100-yard game in the final eight outings and just five total touchdowns on the year. He's being drafted toward the end of Round 4, which is too soon in standard leagues, and this could be the point where Wayne's production starts to decline since he'll be 35 in November.
I'd rather draft: Danny Amendola, Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker

Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: Johnson has been the model of consistency the past three seasons with at least 76 catches, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns over that span. But I'm nervous about him this year. He's had a rough offseason and training camp with a broken back and hamstring problem, which he said continues to be an issue heading into the third preseason game. The Bills also have a new coach in Doug Marrone, who is committed to running the ball with C.J. Spiller. Buffalo also added two rookie receivers in Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin to take targets from Johnson. But the X-factor in all this is the quarterback situation for the Bills. If EJ Manuel (knee) is forced to miss any time, Kevin Kolb would be the starter. Remember how good Kolb was for Larry Fitzgerald the past two years? Yeah, I'd rather forget that as well.
I'd rather draft: Kenny Britt, Josh Gordon, Chris Givens

Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars: Shorts is an extremely talented receiver, and he's entering his third season, which could be a breakout year. But I'm nervous about his injuries and quarterback situation. Shorts dealt with two concussions in 2012, and hopefully that doesn't continue to be a problem this year. He also missed time in training camp with a calf injury. And then there's his quarterback. Blaine Gabbert is going to open the season as the starter, and that doesn't inspire confidence in Shorts posting quality stats. Now, Shorts could be great to start the year with Justin Blackmon (suspension) out, but keep in mind the majority of Shorts' production last year (nine games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league) came when Maurice Jones-Drew was hurt. The standout running back is healthy now, and he will be the focal point on offense. I don't have a problem with his ADP, which is Round 7 as the No. 30 receiver. But anyone considering him a starter could be left disappointed.
I'd rather draft: Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings: Last year, Rudolph was tied with Jimmy Graham for the second-most touchdowns among tight ends with nine, trailing only Rob Gronkowski (11). But Rudolph had just 53 catches for 493 yards. The yardage was the lowest among the Top 15 Fantasy tight ends. And he was just No. 11 among targets for tight ends at 93. Rudolph had five games with double digits in touchdowns in 2012, with three of them coming after Harvin was lost for the season with an ankle injury. The Vikings have replaced Harvin with Greg Jennings and rookie Cordarrelle Patterson, and they will take targets away from Rudolph. He was great in the red zone last year with eight touchdowns in 15 targets, and he should do well down there again. But if his touchdowns decline and he doesn't bring up his catches and yards then this could be a down year. Consider him a low-end starting tight end on Draft Day with a late-round pick.
I'd rather draft: Jermichael Finley, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen

Owen Daniels, TE, Texans: This mention is strictly being made because of ADP, since Daniels is being drafted as the No. 11 tight end. That's too high. I like Daniels as a Top 15 tight end, but I don't want him as my starter. He was good last season with 62 catches for 716 yards and six touchdowns, but that's about his ceiling, especially since the touchdowns were a career high. He had just four games with double digits in Fantasy points, but none after Week 9. And now the Texans appear to have the second receiver they've coveted for seemingly the past 10 years since Andre Johnson was drafted in rookie DeAndre Hopkins. In 14-team leagues or more you should consider Daniels a starter. But in 12-team formats you should only use Daniels as a bye-week or injury replacement. He's a safe Fantasy option, but there are tight ends out there with more upside this season.
I'd rather draft: Martellus Bennett, Jordan Cameron, Zach Sudfeld

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg .

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Player News
Pettine: RB Isaiah Crowell likely starter to open regular season
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(12:29 am ET) The featured back derby for the Browns has apparently been won by Isaiah Crowell - practically by default.

Mike Pettine has stated that Crowell will likely start in Week 1 against the host Jets. That became apparent when fellow competitor Terrance West played the entire first half of the final preseason game Thursday night.

The Browns had hoped that quick rookie Duke Johnson would rise up to earn the job, but a series of injuries, including a current concussion, has prevented him from playing extensively in camp or in the exhibition season.


Panthers CB Josh Norman sustains possible concussion
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(9/3/2015) The Panthers declined to play most of their starters in the Thursday preseason finale against the Steelers. But one who did play suffered a head injury.

That was cornerback Josh Norman, who has begun concussion protocol, per ESPN.com. It remains to be seen if he can recover in time for the regular season opener.

Norman started the last nine games in 2014 and finished the year with two interceptions and 36 tackles.


Colts backup RB job complicated by injuries to Herron, Ballard
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(9/3/2015) Injuries to Colts running backs Dan Herron (shoulder) and Vick Ballard (hamstring) marred the team's preseason finale Thursday night against Cincinnati.

Ballard actually re-injured the hamstring that had kept him sidelined last week against St. Louis. He was hoping to remain healthy against the Bengals in an attempt to land the backup job to featured back Frank Gore.

The injuries to the two backs complicates that competition.


Falcons LB Brooks Reed undergoes surgery on groin
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(9/3/2015) Dan Quinn has announced that Falcons linebacker and prized free agent acquisition Brooks Reed has undergone surgery to repair a nagging groin injury. He could miss up to six weeks, according to the Atlanta Journal Constitution.

Reed sat out most of the offseason with the issue, but did play sparingly in two exhibition games.

He contributed to 41 tackles and added 3 1/2 sacks for Houston in 2014.


Buccaneers sign CB Tim Jennings
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(9/3/2015) The Buccaneers have signed cornerback Tim Jennings, who played for Lovie Smith in Chicago, per NFL.com.

Jennings was released Sunday by the Bears despite having been a Pro Bowl defensive back as recently as 2013. He has been a full-time starter in the NFL since 2008, but had no interceptions a season ago and four in 2013 after peaking at 11 the year before.


WR Terrelle Pryor set to debut with Browns on Thursday
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(9/3/2015) Browns quarterback-turned-wideout Terrelle Pryor will make his debut with the team Thursday night in the final preseason game against Chicago, the Cleveland Plain Dealer has reported.

Pryor will not start, however. He is still not recovered fully from a strained hamstring.


Dolphins WR DeVante Parker ready to roll Thursday
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(9/3/2015) Dolphins standout rookie wide receiver DeVante Parker is set to start Thursday in the preseason finale against Tampa Bay, per the Palm Beach Post.

The first-round pick has been out since June with a foot injury. He returned to practice this week.


Eagles LB Kiko Alonso active for Thursday game against Jets
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(9/3/2015) Eagles linebacker Kiko Alonso is active for the Thursday night preseason finale against the Jets, per NJ.com. It remains to be seen if he sees any action.

Alonso has been sidelined for the first three exhibition games with a concussion, then tendinitis in his surgically repaired left knee.


Report: DE Jason Pierre-Paul planning on joining Giants soon
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(9/3/2015) Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul plans to return to the team next week and to be ready to play by early in the regular season, a source has told ESPN.

An accident with fireworks caused Pierre-Paul to suffer a hand injury in which he lost at least an index finger. Both he and the team have been rather secretive about the extent of his injury, but Tom Coughlin has stated that he's been in communication with Pierre-Paul, who was eager to join the team.

Pierre-Paul has been inconsistent in his pass-rushing production since starting in the NFL, but he recorded 12 1/2 sacks in 2014, the second-highest total of his career. He also contributed to 77 tackles.


NFL suspends Broncos safety T.J. Ward for one game
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(9/3/2015) Broncos safety T.J. Ward has been suspended for one game for violating the league's personal conduct policy, the NFL announced Thursday. Ward's suspension is the result of misdemeanor charges from May 2014 that were later dropped, per the Broncos' official website.

Ward will miss the Broncos' season opener (Sept. 13) against the Ravens and be eligible for reinstatement Sept. 14.

Ward is in his second year with Denver. In 2014, he earned his second Pro Bowl selection after he totaled 74 tackles (60 solo), two sacks and two interceptions.


 
 
 
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