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2013 Draft Prep: Latest draft trends

Senior Fantasy Writer
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It's amazing what happens when players perform well in the preseason. The hype sometimes spirals out of control.

In our third look at players moving up and down in the Average Draft Position on CBSSports.com, no one has improved their stock more than Browns tight end Jordan Cameron. He is up 64 spots from last week to No. 121 overall and is now being drafted as the No. 13 tight end.

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It's warranted given the way Cameron has played through two preseason games, and if he does well in the third outing he could easily enter the Top 10. Some other guys moving up include Michael Vick, Bilal Powell and Kenbrell Thompkins, while some guys dropping include Lamar Miller, Zac Stacy and Denarius Moore.

We'll go over that and more in this analysis of ADP, which is a great tool to help you on Draft Day. The big day should be approaching soon, so be prepared.

The first round looks like this …

1. Adrian Peterson, running back, Vikings
2. Doug Martin,
running back, Buccaneers
3. Arian Foster,
running back, Texans
4. Jamaal Charles,
running back, Chiefs
5. C.J. Spiller,
running back, Bills
6. Marshawn Lynch,
running back, Seahawks
7. Ray Rice,
running back, Ravens
8. Calvin Johnson,
wide receiver, Lions
9. Drew Brees,
quarterback, Saints
10. Trent Richardson,
running back, Browns
11. LeSean McCoy,
running back, Eagles
12. Aaron Rodgers,
quarterback, Packers

Foster is the name to monitor, and he's already dropped one spot from where he's been all offseason. Even though he came off the physically unable to perform list Wednesday, we could see him continue to drop. Fantasy owners need to be concerned about his workload from last year, and I wouldn't draft Foster until at least No. 10 overall.

My first round in a standard league would be as follows: Peterson, Spiller, Charles, Martin, McCoy, Richardson, Lynch, Rice, Johnson, Foster, Alfred Morris and Stevan Ridley. I don't want a quarterback in Round 1, and neither should you. And Morris and Ridley have the potential to be Top 12 running backs again like they were in 2012.

My first round in a point-per-reception league would be as follows: Peterson, Spiller, Charles, Martin, Johnson, McCoy, Richardson, Rice, Foster, Jimmy Graham, Matt Forte and Reggie Bush. Graham is worth taking early in Round 2 in a standard league, but his potential to dominate the tight end position makes him worth drafting in Round 1 in a PPR format. The same goes for guys like Forte and Bush based on their expected reception totals. Lynch, Morris and Ridley are better suited as second-round guys in PPR.

Quarterback breakdown

Vick all reward, no risk: The top of the quarterback list remains the same with Brees, Rodgers and Peyton Manning the first three guys drafted, but Tom Brady and Matt Ryan have moved ahead of Cam Newton, who dropped to No. 6. Newton's poor preseason has some Fantasy owners down on him, which could be a mistake. Still, if he falls in your draft, that's only a benefit to someone who wants to target him in Round 4.

Three backup quarterbacks are on the rise in Vick, Carson Palmer and Brandon Weeden. Vick is up 26 spots to No. 116 overall as the No. 16 quarterback, Palmer is up 27 spots to No. 123 overall as the No. 17 passer and Weeden is up 16 spots to No. 178 overall as the No. 27 quarterback.

I hate saying this, but I'm starting to like Vick a lot as a Fantasy option again. The reason is there's all the reward and little risk. If you draft him in Round 10 or later based on his ADP and he struggles then you just cut him and find another backup quarterback on the waiver wire. But if he does play well in Chip Kelly's offense then he's either your new starter or someone you can trade.

Palmer's Fantasy value is also on the rise because of his potential to shine in Bruce Arians' offense and the opportunity to throw to Larry Fitzgerald. I like Palmer as a high-end backup as well, and keep in mind Andrew Luck attempted the fifth-most passes last season with Arians calling the plays for the Colts. Look for Palmer to throw this year until his arm falls off.

As for Weeden, he has been stellar in the preseason and has put himself in the conversation as a late-round flier. In two-quarterback leagues, Weeden is an excellent backup option, and he should be considered a bye-week replacement in all formats.

Running back breakdown

Bell tolls for Fantasy owners: If you had any of your Fantasy drafts already then you likely took Le'Veon Bell with a pick anywhere from Round 3 to Round 5. And you aren't very happy now. Bell is dealing with a foot sprain and is expected to miss at least the first six weeks of the season.

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He has dropped 12 spots to No. 56 overall, and his ADP should continue to free fall. I would only select Bell in re-draft leagues with a late-round pick at this point. His backups are Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman, LaRod Stephens-Howling and newly-acquired Felix Jones, and none of them are appealing either. You might want to pass on the Steelers backfield on Draft Day.

Other guys with significant movement down include Darren McFadden, Miller, Chris Ivory, Ahmad Bradshaw, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bryce Brown, Pierre Thomas, Zac Stacy, Johnathan Franklin, Mikel Leshoure, Isaiah Pead, Joseph Randle, LaMichael James, Knowshon Moreno, Robert Turbin, Denard Robinson and Mike Tolbert.

Fantasy owners have the usual concerns with McFadden and his health, and his poor preseason, including injuries to the offensive line, has caused him to drop six spots to No. 37 overall. If he's there in Round 4, however, consider him worth the risk.

Miller went from a breakout star prior to the preseason to finding himself in a battle for the starting job with Daniel Thomas, who is up 32 spots to No. 177. You can gamble on Thomas with a late-round flier if you want, but I'll gladly take Miller in Round 4 at No. 40 overall after he dropped seven spots. Talent wins out, and Miller is easily the best running back for the Dolphins.

Ivory (hamstring) and Bradshaw (foot) have dealt with injuries this preseason, but they should be ready to go for Week 1. I can understand the uncertainty with Ivory and Bradshaw given their history, but both remain flex options worth drafting, especially since they have dropped to Round 7. Powell is up 28 spots to No. 163 overall with Ivory being banged up, and he should be in the mix as a No. 4 running back just in case Ivory struggles.

Buying into Williams? Other guys on the rise include Daryl Richardson, DeAngelo Williams, Ben Tate and Joique Bell. Richardson, as we explained last week, is really the only Rams running back worth drafting. His ADP is Round 7 at No. 81 overall after moving up 18 spots, but you should target him in Round 6 as a high-end flex option.

Williams, who is up 11 spots to No. 93 overall, will benefit greatly if Jonathan Stewart (ankle) opens the season on the PUP list, but he's been miserable through three preseason games at just 2.4 yards per carry. I wouldn't draft him in Round 8, but he still could be a starter for the beginning of the year if Stewart is out.

Tate is gaining momentum, and rightfully so given Foster's status. He's someone I target in every draft, and his ADP is up six spots to No. 99 overall. Bell, who is up 18 spots to No. 203 overall, is the handcuff to Reggie Bush. You can give up on Leshoure in the majority of leagues.

Wide receiver breakdown

Thompkins thriving: Thompkins has been among the biggest risers in ADP at his position. He is up 22 spots to No. 162 overall, and he will likely continue to climb following his performance Thursday against the Lions with eight catches for 116 yards. He now has 13 catches for 142 yards through three preseason games and has locked up the starting job opposite Danny Amendola. He is a great No. 4 Fantasy receiver to target in Round 8. By comparison, Aaron Dobson is down nine spots to No. 161. I'd take a late-round flier on Dobson at this point, but that's about it.

Some other receivers with their ADP on the rise include Chris Givens, Michael Floyd, Vincent Brown and Mohamed Sanu. Givens is up 24 spots to No. 112 overall, but I think that's low. I would start looking at Givens in Round 7. All of these guys have plenty of potential, but Givens is my favorite.

Giving up on the Raiders: Two receivers in Oakland are falling in Moore and Rod Streater. Moore is down six spots to No. 132 overall, and Streater is off the map at No. 218 overall after dropping 12 spots. It's understood given Matt Flynn is the quarterback, and no one wants to trust any of the Raiders.

I'd still take a flier on Moore, who is in his third year, but only with a late-round pick. And Streater has plenty of upside, but I'd wait to get him on waivers during the season if he starts playing well.

Some other receivers dropping include Jordy Nelson, Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright, Malcom Floyd and Santonio Holmes. I like seeing Nelson and Britt fall because that only makes their value that much better. I'd love to see Nelson fall to Round 7, and I'll take Britt in Round 9. They are both going to have quality seasons if they can stay healthy, but Nelson is still not playing after knee surgery in early August.

My favorite values at receiver: Some of the best buys at receiver based on ADP include T.Y. Hilton (No. 79 overall) in Round 7, Josh Gordon (No. 108 overall) in Round 9, Ryan Broyles (No. 146 overall) in Round 13 and Alshon Jeffery (No. 150 overall) in Round 13. Along with Thompkins, Givens and Floyd these are all receivers I target on Draft Day.

Tight end breakdown

Cameron the hot name: The way I tier my tight ends is Graham in the first two rounds, followed by Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis in Rounds 4-6. If I miss on those guys, I'll wait for Jermichael Finley or Jared Cook in Round 7 or 8.

After those guys, it's a crap shoot, but the guy I find myself targeting is Cameron. He has the biggest breakout potential of anyone at the position, and you're seeing why in the preseason with two touchdowns through two games.

He is a Top 10 tight end in my opinion, and playing for Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner will only enhance his talent. If he can stay healthy, which has been an issue throughout his career, he should be a solid starter in all leagues.

Two other tight ends on the rise include rookies Tyler Eifert and Zach Sudfeld. Eifert is up to No. 151 overall, and Sudfeld is up to No. 169 overall. I'd gamble on Sudfeld over Eifert because of Brady.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg .

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Player News
Eagles' Chris Polk gets first-team reps in practice
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) Eagles running back Chris Polk received first-team reps in practice on Wednesday, according to CSNPhilly.com.

Polk opened practice with the starters and ran a couple of plays. LeSean McCoy watched the plays from the sideline. Following practice, McCoy stressed that it wasn't a big deal. "We rotate all the time," he said. "[Running back coach Duce Staley] pulled me out. [Darren] Sproles wasn't in either." Polk is coming off a three touchdown performance in Week 15. It's possible he could find his way into more playing time given the practice situation. 


Seahawks without three offensive lineman on Wednesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Seahawks did not have three of their offensive linemen at practice on Wednesday, according to ESPN.

Max Unger, Russell Okung and J.R. Sweezy were all held out. Unger has missed the past four games due to an ankle and knee issue. He was able to practice last Friday, but did not play on Sunday. Okung is dealing with a bruised lung, but there's a chance he'll recover in time for Sunday's game. "[Okung is] going to have some stuff done [Thursday] that will let us know where he sits and all that," head coach Pete Carrol said. "He’s not out of the plan yet."

Sweezy is dealing with an ankle injury. His appearance on the injury report comes as somewhat of a surprise. 


Lions pick up CB Josh Thomas
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Lions have claimed cornerback Josh Thomas on waivers, according to the New York Post

Thomas was cut by the Jets on Tuesday, but found a new job quickly. He's played in three games this season, registering two tackles. 


Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch sits out on Wednesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch did not practice on Wednesday.

Lynch has been using Wednesday as a veteran's day all season, so the move isn't a big surprise. He's been battling a back injury throughout most of the season, but has been able to play through it. Lynch has 1133 rushing yards, with 10 touchdowns, this year. 


Texans' DeAndre Hopkins unable to practice on Wednesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) Texans wideout DeAndre Hopkins did not practice on Wednesday.

Hopkins is dealing with an ankle injury, and was unable to go. Hopkins has played in all 14 games this season. He has 1167 yards on 69 receptions. Hopkins has caught six touchdowns. His status will likely be determined based on how much he is able to practice on Thursday and Friday. 


49ers WR Michael Crabtree misses practice Wednesday
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) 49ers wideout Michael Crabtree did not practice Wednesday due to a knee injury, reports CSNBayArea.com. Crabtree, who has not cleared 60 receiving yards since Week 11, isn't believed to be seriously hurt.

He's scheduled to play the Chargers on Saturday night. If Crabtree can't go, it could mean increased targets for fellow starter Anquan Boldin.


Raiders QB Derek Carr limited by thumb injury
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) Raiders quarterback Derek Carr was limited in Wednesday's practice with a thumb injury, but coach Tony Sparano isn't too concerned, reports CSNBayArea.com. Carr has thrown one or zero touchdown passes in four of his past five games entering Sunday's contest against Buffalo.

Report: Jay Cutler to be benched Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Bears will bench starting quarterback Jay Cutler Week 16 against the Lions, according to ESPN.

The move comes as a big surprise given the seven-year, $126 million contract Cutler signed in January. Cutler has had a big problem with turnovers this season, throwing 18 interceptions and fumbling 12 times. The move could mark the end of Cutler's season as the starter, and puts his future in Chicago in jeopardy. 

The team will turn to Jimmy Clausen to replace Cutler.


Texans RB Arian Foster held out Wednesday
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) Texans running back Arian Foster did not practice Wednesday with what the team called a hip injury. Foster was listed on the injury report last week with a groin injury, then racked up 117 yards from scrimmage on 29 touches at Indy.

Foster, who might just be getting a veteran's rest day, is expected to start Sunday against the Ravens. Houston is a 5.5-point underdog at Caesars Palace Race and Sports Book.


Report: Bears to start Jimmy Clausen Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Bears will start Jimmy Clausen Week 16 against the Lions, according to ESPN.

The move comes as a major surprise. While Jay Cutler has faced scrutiny for his body language and demeanor, the team handed him a seven-year, $126 million contract last season. The move seems to indicate that Cutler is done for the season, and puts his career with the Bears in jeopardy.

Clausen has seen time in three games this season, completing three passes in nine attempts. His last start came back in 2010, his rookie season. That year, Clausen threw for 1,558 yards, with three touchdowns against nine interceptions. 

The Lions are currently 7-point favorites, according to VegasInsider.com.


 
 
 
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