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Reality Check: New quarterback dilemmas

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Continuing our examination of just how wackadoodle this season is shaping up to be, we come to the quarterback position -- a position of excess and, therefore, lower priority.

Because the two are usually connected, you see.

But while the former has certainly proven to be true -- beyond even what I expected with Michael Vick, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler returning to prominence and Sam Bradford, Terrelle Pryor and Ryan Tannehill entering the fold -- I'm not so sure about the latter anymore.

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It's different from before. The fear of going without a competent player at the position is silly and has been for a few years now. But I'm sensing quarterback has become so deep, with so many good options available for every team in your league, that the need to distinguish between good, better and best is paramount.

After all, the key to winning in Fantasy is having an advantage over your opponent. How can you have an advantage at a position where everyone is equally good?

The answer, of course, is that everyone isn't equally good. Not really. They all meet the expected level of production at the position, but they don't do it at the same time or to the same extent.

When the number of players who meet the expected level of production at a position increases, it seems like a luxury at first -- an opportunity to wait longer to fill that position. But if it continues from year to year, with those players only growing in number, eventually the expected level of production at the position changes. It's exactly what Fantasy Baseball owners have encountered with starting pitchers in recent years.

And when an already high-scoring position becomes even higher-scoring, it only raises the stakes at that position. Particularly in standard CBSSports.com formats, where passing touchdowns are worth a full six points, the quarterback spot has the greatest say in whether you win or lose in a given week. It typically won't have as much fluctuation as other positions, but if your quarterback performs to one extreme or the other, what the rest of your team does is virtually irrelevant.

Now, before I stray down a path that undermines decades of Fantasy Football philosophy, let me be clear: A top running back is still more valuable than a top quarterback. The team with the biggest advantage at quarterback doesn't automatically win the league, after all. You still need advantages at other positions, and a replacement-level quarterback is a much more viable option than a replacement-level running back.

The purpose of this column isn't to compel you to shop your first-round running back for the best quarterback you can get. The purpose is to help you get the most out of a position with far too much to go around.

Basically, I just added Philip Rivers to a roster that already included Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, and looking at what all is still available at the position, I can't help but think other people are in a similar situation. Nobody wants to give up on a quarterback who can consistently deliver two touchdowns, but at the same time, a two-touchdown performance is probably the new baseline at the position. Any more than that, and you've distanced yourself from the competition. Any less, and you better hope to hit the jackpot elsewhere.

With an average of two touchdowns (passing and rushing) in his two games, Luck hasn't been bad, but he hasn't stood out like I hoped he would. Maybe that changes over time. Two games don't make a season, and if Luck goes and throws four touchdown passes at San Francisco this weekend, I won't have much of a dilemma anymore. But what if he doesn't? What if he continues with 1-2 touchdowns week after week? And what if San Diego's new offense under coach Mike McCoy relies so much on Rivers' arm that 3-4 touchdowns becomes the norm for him? Could I really pass up on him now, recognizing that possibility?

That's the differentiator right there. Granted, both classes of quarterback will have some overlap, but the 6-18 points that the 3-4 touchdown guy has on the 1-2 touchdown guy each week will decide many a matchup this season.

To get a sense of which quarterbacks fit where, I've sorted all 32 starters into three groups based on what they've done so far this season ...

The 3-4 touchdown guys (those averaging more than two touchdowns per game):
Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Philip Rivers, Sam Bradford, Matt Schaub, Robert Griffin III, Eli Manning and Jay Cutler

The 1-2 touchdown guys (those averaging 1.5 to two touchdowns per game):
Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, Colin Kaepernick, Drew Brees, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, E.J. Manuel, Tony Romo, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer and Tom Brady

Everyone else:
Terrelle Pryor, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, Josh Freeman, Geno Smith and Chad Henne

That basically sums up the position, doesn't it? Everyone in the first two groups is worth owning, and everyone in the last group (apart from Wilson, Pryor and maybe Tannehill, who's leading a pass-first offense now even though he doesn't have the touchdowns to show for it) isn't.

But again, two games don't make a season. I'm not classifying these quarterbacks this way forever more. I still think of Brees as being in that first group -- too much of a track record there -- and I consider Ryan, Stafford, Romo and Brady safer bets than not to join him. I also think Kaepernick's and Newton's rushing abilities elevate them over the other 1-2 touchdown guys.

But seeing the way some of those other names stack up makes the rest of the position not so black-and-white.

For instance, if you drafted Vick to be your backup, as so many Fantasy owners did, do you continue to start Ryan, Stafford and Romo over him? As long as he's healthy and the Chip Kelly offense continues to take the league by surprise, I don't see how. But of course, trading Ryan, Stafford or Romo gives you no fallback in the likely event of another Vick injury, which means the best place for them might actually be your bench. Plus, with bargain-bin finds such as Bradford and Schaub outperforming them, you have to wonder just how much they'd fetch in a trade anyway.

Which brings me to my next point. Do Bradford, Schaub and, yes, Rivers really belong in this discussion? Based on what they've done through two games, with each of their offenses leaning more on the pass as part of a growing trend of pass-happy offenses across the league, would you consider sitting your intended starter for them, if only on occasion? Should you?

Ryan, Stafford and Romo are one thing, but does Luck deserve preferential treatment over them now, especially with the Colts likely to adopt a more balanced approach with the acquisition of Trent Richardson? What about Wilson or, shoot, Brady? Compared to the rest of the league, the Patriots' offense is looking positively balanced. Or what about Eli Manning? He has the touchdowns, but with seven interceptions is he still more trustworthy than that guy you just plucked off waivers? Any way you look at it, it's a mess.

My guess is you'll have to pick and choose. The few true standouts at the position -- guys like Peyton Manning, Rodgers and, yes, I'll include Brees -- remain must-starts, and a few others -- Vick, Griffin, Ryan, Stafford, Kaepernick, Romo, Newton and Brady -- should be heavy favorites each week. But with so little differentiation between the second and third tiers at quarterback now, the position, quite frankly, has become matchups-oriented.

And it stinks. The more options you have to choose from, the more potential you have to choose wrong, and if you continually choose wrong, you miss out on all the good weeks, putting you in a worse predicament than if you had just stuck with one guy.

But again, two touchdowns is the baseline for a quarterback now. If you can't trust your guy to do that with the matchup at hand, you're putting yourself at a serious disadvantage. Most likely, your opponent has someone who can.

Of course, playing the matchups is easier said than done, particularly at quarterback. Teams tend to pass more when trailing than when leading, so if the matchup is too favorable, it can actually backfire. Then again, starting the quarterback most likely to be involved in a shootout can sometimes backfire as well. Neither Ryan nor Freeman lit up the Saints, you may have noticed.

Trust me: In that league where I own Luck, Russell and Wilson ... or the one where I own Griffin, Wilson and Rivers ... or the one where I own Stafford and Bradford, I don't look forward to making that decision each week. But I think it's the way of the future, and to demonstrate that point, I asked my Twitter followers to provide me with what they anticipate to be season-long quarterback dilemmas. Let's do our best to sort them out:

Rivers vs. Luck -- @Trantice99
For what it's worth, I plan to go with Rivers this week, but I suspect it'll be a week-to-week thing, assuming the Richardson acquisition doesn't cut into Luck's production too much.

Vick or Newton? -- @yeah2low
If I'm going with Vick over Ryan, Stafford and Romo, I'm going with him over a struggling Newton. Newton showed last year why you shouldn't count him out, though. I suspect he'll be your preferred option down the stretch.

Deciding between Pryor and Brady ... sad to say. -- @NoToryousone1
Sad only because Brady underachieved against the Jets, but in the long run, this one won't be much of a dilemma. I don't anticipate the Raiders scoring too many touchdowns.

Griffin and Bradford. Agonized over it last week will again this week. Rams will have to throw a lot, right? -- @wilkinson81
With Steven Jackson gone, their offense has a different look, relying more on short passes than traditional runs. I could see Bradford closing the gap on Griffin in time. But the Redskins' defense has them perpetually in catch-up mode, which has worked wonders for Griffin's numbers.

Vick and Kaepernick. Trying to solve the dilemma by trading one. -- @knowITall_sport
Yeah, but ... for what? A third running back? Vick might fetch more than that if you find someone flipping out over his potential in the Eagles' new offense, but is it worth losing his monster production for however long he's healthy? I might just stand pat.

I have Romo and Eli Manning. -- ‏@BoughtAndPaid9
This one should become a dilemma at some point, but I need to be convinced Manning won't be throwing three interceptions a game first.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Facebook . You can also follow Scott via Twitter @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Redskins CB DeAngelo Hall not sure if he'll be ready for camp
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/7/2015) Redskins veteran cornerback DeAngelo Hall hopes he has recovered enough from a torn Achilles tendon to be 100 percent for the starting of training camp. But he's making no guarantees.

"I know they're going to monitor me," he told 106.7 The Fan. "I know they are not going to just throw me out there and [have me] take all the reps with the [first team].

"I'm just going to get out there and see how the body feels ... I'm at the mercy of the trainers and coaching staff. They're going to kind of wean me back in slowly."

Hall, who lost all but three games last season to the injury, also missed OTAs and minicamp, but has recently begun ramping up his workouts.


Saints WR Nick Toon seeks to seize best opportunity of career
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/7/2015) The path is clear for Saints wide receiver Nick Toon to earn more playing time than ever. But he realizes that he must get on that path and stay on it through superior performance.

The offseason losses of Kenny Stills, Jimmy Graham and Robert Meacham should result in more reps for Toon, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract. He has been buried on the depth chart, though he did catch a career-high 17 passes last year.

He believes that now is the time for him to step up and break out.

"Pressure is not something that I've every worried about or thought about," he told the New Orleans Advocate. "I just try to be consistent. Anything outside of that is out of my control, so do what you've got to do to put yourself in the best position for things to work out."

Toon has a shot at the third receiver role behind Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston.


Giants WR Victor Cruz believes he'll be back in action for camp
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/7/2015) Giants standout receiver Victor Cruz believes he can avoid starting the season on the PUP list despite continuing to deal with his recovery from a patellar tendon tear.

"The plan is to be ready for training camp and I feel good," he told SiriusXM NFL Radio.

Placing Cruz on the PUP list would give the Giants roster flexibility if he is not ready by training camp. If he lands on the regular-season PUP list, he would be forced to miss the first six games.

Cruz has experienced weakened production every year since his breakout season of 2011. But he was limited to just six games in 2014.


Report: Packers have no plan to release TE Andrew Quarless
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/7/2015) The Packers have no intention of releasing tight end Andrew Quarless despite his arrest on July 4 for allegedly shooting off his gun in public, sources have told ESPN.

Quarless was charged with a misdemeanor after firing two shots into the air outside a parking garage in Miami Beach, per police reports. He was seen arguing with two women before the incident.


Report: Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul can forget long-term deal
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/7/2015) The Giants will not take back their one-year franchise tag offer of $14.813 million to defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul in the wake of a fireworks accident that resulted in a hand injury and hospitalization, a source has told the New York Daily News.

But the source added that there is "no chance" the Giants will now work on a long-term contract for Pierre-Paul. 

Giants officials made the trek to South Florida on Tuesday to see how he is recovering, sources have told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter.

Pierre-Paul is coming off his best season since 2011. He contributed to 77 tackles and racked up 12 1/2 sacks.


Eagles LB Brandon Graham could be on verge of breakout year
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/7/2015) Eagles linebacker Brandon Graham feels the optimism of a guy coming off his best season.

"I'm feeling the best I've ever felt," he told the team website.

It's no wonder. He recorded career-highs in tackles (36), tackles for losses (13 1/2), assists (11) and sacks (5.5) in 2014. He earned significant playing time in a rotation at that position. And with Trent Cole off to Indianapolis, those reps could increase this year.

Graham has toiled feverishly to improve his game and adapt to a new defensive system. The result was a new four-year contract with the team.

"I understand the game and the league and what it takes to get it done here," he said. "I think I've grown up. I'm serious about being a great player. I want to be the best."


Giants pulling long-term contract offer to Jason Pierre-Paul
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(7/6/2015) In the wake of a Fourth of July fireworks mishap, the Giants on Monday pulled their long-term contract offer to defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, who remains hospitalized in Miami, per NFL.com insider Ian Rapaport. 

The Giants had applied the franchise tag to Pierre-Paul this offseason, but the player has not yet signed it, technically leaving him not under contract with the team. The Giants move to yank the longer deal is a bit of gamesmanship, since according to Rapoport, Pierre-Paul was not going to sign the $60 million deal anyway. 


Bills sign veteran tackle Wayne Hunter
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(7/6/2015) The Bills took another step to shore up their offensive line, signing veteran tackle Wayne Hunter to a one-year deal Monday, per the National Football Post. 

Hunter, who has not played in the NFL since 2012, did spend three years with the Jets under new Bills coach Rex Ryan from 2009-2011. 

Hunter's deal is reportedly worth $870,000.


RB Khiry Robinson could be odd man out in Saints backfield
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(7/6/2015) Running back Khiry Robinson is a fan favorite with the Saints, but the third-year pro, who once was viewed as a breakout candidate for the team, may find his role squeezed by the presence of Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller, per ESPN.com. 

Robinson dealt with a broken arm last season, which limited him to 12 carries and 32 yards over the final 10 weeks of the year. The Saints then re-upped with Ingram and brought in Spiller to replace Pierre Thomas, meaning Robinson will have to fight hard in training camp to establish a role. 

"I just gotta keep working," Robinson said. "It's all love in the backfield. We all work together, try to help each other. So I think it's a good thing we've got a full backfield again. So if anybody goes down, we've got another player right up there to do the same thing."


Report: Giants Jason Pierre-Paul hurt in fireworks accident
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(7/5/2015) Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul reportedly hurt his hand in a Fourth of July fireworks accident in Miami, according to the Daily News

The paper reports that the injury is not considered career-threatening, but that varying accounts of what happened have been reported. The Giants have not confirmed nor denied the incident. 

The Giants applied the franchise tag to Pierre-Paul this offseason, but the 26-year-old has not yet signed it as he seeks a long-term deal, meaning that he technically is not under contract. 

Pierre-Paul had 53 tackles and 12 1/2 sacks last year for New York. 


 
 
 
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