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Fantasy & Reality: The Thursday night riddle

Senior Fantasy Writer
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While it's awesome to have a football game early every week, Thursday nights remain a mystery to Fantasy Football owners.

Through two weeks already this season we've seen the Patriots squeak by the Jets (most would have expected the Pats to beat them soundly) and the Eagles get roasted by the Chiefs (most would have expected the Eagles to put up more of a fight). Already, Thursday night games are on par from last year's editions in terms of let-down performances and a lack of scoring. Just look at Tom Brady (13) in Week 2 and Michael Vick (17) last Thursday night. The receivers in these first two Thursday nighters have also been busts (outside of Jason Avant).

The Thursday games aren't just hard on Fantasy owners. Coaches have a hard time with them, too.

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"Honestly, I feel particularly as the season goes on, it's hard. It's hard to recover," former Steelers head coach and current The NFL Today analyst Bill Cowher told me this week. "You try to do a little bit of preparation in training camp because you're already cut down on how much time you have to meet with the players (the week of the game). We used to do that for Thanksgiving so we'd have a little bit of an idea of what we wanted to do."

Getting ready to play football in four days is a tough chore, and the results of which have proven to be perplexing. Take any angle to any game and chances are you'd be surprised with the results. Only nine teams in 2012 scored 30-plus points (five on Thanksgiving) while 11 teams scored 14 or fewer. Home teams were 8-8. Teams coming off a win went 9-9 while teams coming off a loss were 7-7. Teams coming off a home game were 11-14. Teams coming off a road game -- explain this one -- were 5-2.

And if that doesn't stun you, this will: You'd think teams would be uber-prepared for their contest following their Thursday game considering a 10-day layoff. Well, teams went 15-17 the following week after a Thursday night game.

Of course these numbers are in a vacuum and don't specifically preach to a Fantasy audience. But this one does: On Thursdays in 2012 only six quarterbacks had 20-plus Fantasy points, 23 running backs had 10-plus points (11 had 15-plus points), 24 receivers had 10-plus Fantasy points (just seven had 15-plus points) and four tight ends had 10-plus Fantasy points. When you consider these numbers came over 16 games, they're disappointing across the board, save for the running backs.

This makes sense. On a short week it's probably harder for non-cornerback defenders to recover from the clang-and-bang they took on just four days prior. Offensive linemen probably have similar troubles, but running backs don't. There's maybe one practice, two walk-thrus and plenty of time for a running back to heal up. They're fresher. Additionally, the playbook knowledge a running back has to have is inherently smaller than quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends. Their assignments aren't as complicated. Pretty much every stud running back from 2012 shined in their Thursday game, especially those who played late in the year. Of the 22 rushers who produced 10 or more Fantasy points in 2012, 14 came in the final seven weeks of the Thursday slate (nine games).

Already this season three of the four starting running backs that have played on a short week's rest have posted at least 12 Fantasy points. To be fair, two of them were Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. But Bilal Powell's 12-point game is nothing to sneeze at. Capable running backs deserve automatic Fantasy consideration on Thursdays.

The other positions just haven't measured up. Quarterbacks have to intimately learn the tendencies of their opponents. Receivers have to size up the defensive backs. Tight ends, who also probably take on more punishment physically than other players, also have to get to know opposing linebackers and safeties. These guys are all professionals but it's a tall order to have an in-depth knowledge of an opponent with less than 100 hours of prep time to work with.

In turn, the Fantasy spin is simple: Don't use a non-running back playing on Thursday unless it's a slam-dunk -- not even a slam-dunk matchup is enough to justify a non-obvious player. As podcast and video host Adam Aizer says, "When in doubt, Thursday's out!"

Game Top QB Top RB Top WR Top TE
Bears 10 J. Cutler (4) M. Forte (7) B. Marshall (2) K. Davis (8)
Packers 23 A. Rodgers (12) C. Benson (11) J. Nelson (8) T. Crabtree (8)
Giants 36 E. Manning (17) A. Brown (24) R. Barden (13) M. Bennett (13)
Panthers 7 C. Newton (9) D. Williams (7) S. Smith (8) G. Olsen (9)
Browns 16 B. Weeden (10) T. Richardson (15) G. Little (7) B. Watson (5)
Ravens 23 J. Flacco (24) R. Rice (8) T. Smith (15)* D. Pitta (0)
Cardinals 3 K. Kolb (9) R. Williams (3) L. Fitzgerald (9) R. Housler (4)
Rams 17 S. Bradford (15) S. Jackson (7) C. Givens (11) L. Kendricks (6)
Steelers 23 Roethlisberger (19) I. Redman (11) M. Wallace (15) H. Miller (6)
Titans 26 Hasselbeck (15) C. Johnson (11) K. Britt (12) J. Cook (5)
Seahawks 6 R. Wilson (3) M. Lynch (11) B. Obomanu (5) Z. Miller (0)
49ers 13 A. Smith (10) F. Gore (18) M. Crabtree (3) D. Walker (7)
Buccaneers 36 J. Freeman (28) D. Martin (32) M. Williams (12) D. Clark (4)
Vikings 17 C. Ponder (15) A. Peterson (16) P. Harvin (15) K. Rudolph (1)
Chiefs 13 M. Cassel (6) J. Charles (5) D. Bowe (7) S. Maneri (0)
Chargers 31 P. Rivers (18) R. Mathews (6) M. Floyd (10) A. Gates (10)
Colts 21 A. Luck (18) V. Ballard (5) R. Wayne (9) D. Allen (3)
Jaguars 10 C. Henne (8) R. Jennings (2) C. Shorts (16) M. Lewis (3)
Dolphins 14 R. Tannehill (7) R. Bush (3) D. Bess (11) A. Fasano (0)
Bills 19 R. Fitzpatrick (7) C. Spiller (12) S. Johnson (7) S. Chandler (3)
Texans 34 M. Schaub (16) A. Foster (23)* A. Johnson (18). O. Daniels (8)
Lions 31 M. Stafford (29) M. Leshoure (11)* C. Johnson (20)* B. Pettigrew (7)
Redskins 38 R. Griffin III (36) A. Morris (17) P. Garcon (14)* N. Paul (8)
Cowboys 31 T. Romo (33) F. Jones (11) D. Bryant (24) J. Witten (7)
Patriots 49 T. Brady (36) S. Vereen (19)* W. Welker (13)* A. Hernandez (3)
Jets 19 M. Sanchez (14) B. Powell (11) J. Kerley (8) D. Keller (12)
Saints 13 D. Brees (3) P. Thomas (8) L. Moore (12) J. Graham (5)
Falcons 23 M. Ryan (12) M. Turner (12) J. Jones (4) T. Gonzalez (11)
Broncos 26 P. Manning (16) K. Moreno (21) E. Decker (8) J. Dreessen (9)
Raiders 13 C. Palmer (18) D. McFadden (12) Heyward-Bey (14)* B. Myers (0)
Bengals 34 A. Dalton (14) Green-Ellis (16) A. Green (11) J. Gresham (6)
Eagles 13 N. Foles (9) B. Brown (4) R. Cooper (8) C. Harbor (2)
* - denotes multiple players on the team had 10-plus Fantasy points

Why I'm waiting for Wilson

Simply put, the Giants have no choice but to put the ball back into David Wilson's hands. To help fix their busted offense they need to re-establish their run game, not just between the tackles but on the outer edges and on screens and dump-off passes.

Wilson is their best option to get that going and it's not even close. Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser with no quickness or agility left in his tank. Da'Rel Scott is a better passing downs back but doesn't have the playmaking ability Wilson has.

I noticed Wilson trying to get revved up last week at Carolina. Though he totaled zero yards on his first seven carries, those official numbers don't include a 17-yard run to the left edge for a touchdown that was nullified by a holding penalty (the hold, I believe, was just far enough away on the play to not make a difference had the defender not been held). Then when the game was lopsided in the third quarter Wilson picked up a few more opportunities, reeling off runs for 11, 14 (called back due to penalty that did help Wilson out), minus-1, 12 and 18 yards.

It should be enough to show the Giants coaches that he can help the offense, even if it is painfully obvious that the Giants offensive line is a major problem. Maybe that gets worked out, maybe the Giants work around it or maybe Wilson is part of the solution (he can catch the ball). But his skill set is too valuable for the Giants to ignore when they're looking for wins.

With four of the G-Men's next six games against the Eagles, Vikings and Raiders, I would try pawning off a receiver for Wilson immediately.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) from around the league.

Fantasy: Russell Wilson won't have to throw much against Jacksonville, and that's why he'll stink. I couldn't have been more wrong. Wilson's first score was a goal-line job where tight end Zach Miller faked a block, actually hit the ground, and got up and was wide open for an easy score. The second, also to Miller, came off a play-action bootleg that had most of the Jaguars defense confused. The third was on an 11-yard post pattern by Sidney Rice and the fourth was not a well thought-out pass but Rice plucked it right in front of a Jaguars defensive back for a score. The lessons learned: Jacksonville's pass defense isn't very good, and anytime a quarterback needs to get in a groove his team will afford him the chance against any weak opponent. Let's hope Wilson can build off of this when he plays at Houston and at Indy over the next two weeks.

Reality: Dwayne Bowe's numbers are in trouble. Bowe would love a "get right" game against the Jaguars but he's already played them. Through three games Bowe has 17 targets, nine catches, 90 yards and a touchdown. Jamaal Charles has more targets while Donnie Avery has one fewer target. Avery is the only Chiefs player with a receiving average higher than 11.0 and has two catches for more than 30 yards (only one was a legitimate deep pass). The common thread? Alex Smith, who has attempted just eight passes for 15-plus yards through three games (105 attempts!). The problems that hindered Michael Crabtree in San Francisco are now in Bowe's lap in Kansas City.

Fantasy: Chris Ivory is the Jets' best running back. I'm more confident than ever in Bilal Powell leading the Jets' ground game. Ivory's hamstring has flared up, Mike Goodson will never be more than a passing-downs option and the offense is just barely good enough to give him a chance to post some good cumulative numbers. He has 12 and 14 points in standard formats the last two weeks. Consider Powell the cheapest starting running back available via trade right now.

Reality: Josh Gordon isn't going away. I would be stunned if Josh Gordon's numbers regressed like they did last year when he had three good games in a row and then pretty much disappeared. The Browns are sorely lacking at running back and I don't see that changing. That means they'll pass more often, much like they did last week at Minnesota, and with Jordan Cameron forcing defenses to pay attention to him it won't be a matter of Gordon being double covered all of the time. Brian Hoyer has also showed that he can chuck it. Gordon might not get 19 targets or 10 catches in a game again this season but we haven't seen his last 100-yard contest.

Fantasy: It's a good idea to spend a decent draft pick on a DST. The top three DSTs drafted this summer were the Seahawks, 49ers and Bears, all with a pick before 100th overall on average. None of them are the top DST through three weeks, though the Seahawks rank second and the Bears rank fourth. The Niners? 29th. The Bengals, Broncos and Texans were also early Fantasy DST choices and none of them are in the Top 12 right now. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Cowboys and Panthers are in the Top 6. Next year do yourself a favor and wait forever for a DST unless it's an absolute stud unit like the Seahawks, which works as a Round 11 pick.

Reality: I'm liking Kenbrell Thompkins. Of course, I liked Thompkins before, and it's easy to say I like him following a two-score performance. But over three weeks he's been thrown at in or near the end zone five times and it began to pay off last week. Assume that by the time the Patriots' receiving corps gets healthy Thompkins and Brady will have their chemistry issues close to being fixed. Defenses won't be able to do any better than single coverage on Thompkins, making him a consistent No. 3 Fantasy receiver.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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Player News
Report: Giants Jason Pierre-Paul hurt in fireworks accident
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(7/5/2015) Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul reportedly hurt his hand in a Fourth of July fireworks accident in Miami, according to the Daily News

The paper reports that the injury is not considered career-threatening, but that varying accounts of what happened have been reported. The Giants have not confirmed nor denied the incident. 

The Giants applied the franchise tag to Pierre-Paul this offseason, but the 26-year-old has not yet signed it as he seeks a long-term deal, meaning that he technically is not under contract. 

Pierre-Paul had 53 tackles and 12 1/2 sacks last year for New York. 


Report: Torn pectoral sidelines Vikings CB Josh Robinson
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/4/2015) The Vikings secondary took a hit last month when cornerback Josh Robinson sustained a partially torn pectoral muscle, a league source has told ESPN.

The nickel back played in 690 snaps last season and was expected to battle several others for playing time. The injury could sideline him from training camp and land him on the PUP list.


Report: Packers' Andrew Quarless arrested on gun charges
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(7/4/2015) Packers tight end Andrew Quarless was arrested for firing a gun twice in Miami on Saturday, per the Miami New Times.

Quarless was involved in a fight at South Beach and fired the gun into the ground. 


Titans receivers can thrive in YAC with Marcus Mariota's accuracy
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(7/3/2015) The Titans wide receiving corps could gain more yards after the catch this season because of rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and his accurate throws, per ESPN.com.

The Titans were 24th in the league in yards after the catch last season, but with Mariota under center that can all change.

“If you have an accurate quarterback, it allows us to get more yards after that catch,” wide receiver Harry Douglas said. “And that’s one thing that makes a receiver dynamic -- first being able to catch the ball and then being able to do some things with it after you catch it. I feel like [to this point] Marcus has done everything he needs to do to get the ball to his receivers.”


Saints RB Khiry Robinson doesn't feel he's on outside looking in
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(7/3/2015) Saints running back Khiry Robinson might be the least known of his backfield counterparts, but he doesn't feel like the off man out, per ESPN.com.

Robinson knows the team is heavily invested in the likes of Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller, but he's still confident he can thrive in whatever role the Saints put him in.

“I’m the type of person, I’m gonna get what I get and do what I do with it. So whether it’s 20 carries or one carry, I’m gonna do the best of my ability every play,” Robinson said.

Robinson has shown flashes of success during his three years in the league. Injuries played a key role against him last season, which can ultimately put him as the third back on the depth chart. He will use the offseason to continue to improve and challenge his counterparts for playing time.

“I just gotta keep working,” Robinson. “It’s all love in the backfield. We all work together, try to help each other. So I think it’s a good thing we’ve got a full backfield again. So if anybody goes down, we’ve got another player right up there to do the same thing.”


Browns OL Michael Bowie itching to compete for starting spot
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/3/2015) Browns offensive lineman Michael Bowie is not required to report to training camp until the end of July. But never mind that - he's heading out after the last Independence Day firework explodes in the sky.

Bowie is itching to get started. He missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury after starting for Seattle on its Super Bowl title team in 2013. He is seeking to stay in tip-top shape in an attempt to land a starting spot on a Cleveland line that is the strength of the team.

"It's up to them to decide who is the best five," Bowie told the team website. "All I can do is take care of my business. Hopefully I can get a shot. That's what I'm working for."

Bowie participated fully in the offseason program, working mostly with the second team at right tackle. That will likely be the spot at which he competes for a starting job. Incumbent Mitchell Schwartz has not performed particularly well there and Mike Pettine has vowed there will be competition all over the field in camp.


Redskins OLB Ryan Kerrigan nearly recovered from knee surgery
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/3/2015) Redskins outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan appears to be on target to join the team for training camp after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery that prevented him from participating in earlier offseason activities.

Kerrigan, who registered a career-high 13 1/2 sacks a year ago, had the operation to alleviate pain in the area.

"My leg feels really good and I'm glad I got the surgery - not just for football but it makes my everyday life feel better so I'm glad I got it done," he told CSN Washington. "Now it's just a matter of getting stronger and getting into shape."

Kerrigan added that he's been running and now only needs to regain strength to insure his place at training camp.


Texans waive DT Brandon Ivory
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) The Texans waived rookie defensive tackle Brandon Ivory on Thursday, according to ESPN.com

Ivory was arrested on first degree burglary charges in Tuscaloosa, Ala. just one day ago. Ivory's agent Jeff Guerriero said Ivory is not guilty of the charge. 

"I spoke to Brandon he is not guilty and his name will be cleared of all charges," Guerriero said. 


Chargers TE Antonio Gates suspended 4 games for PED use
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Chargers tight end Antonio Gates has been suspended four games for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drugs policy, the team announced. 

It's unknown at this time what drug Gates tested positive for. Gates, in a statement, said he was unaware that he took a banned substance

"In my 12 years in the NFL, I have taken tremendous pride in upholding the integrity of the NFL shield and all that it entails," Gates said. "I have taken extreme care of my body with a holistic approach and I have never knowingly ingested a substance that was banned by the NFL. In an effort to recover from this past season, I used supplements and holistic medicines, and unfortunately, I have now learned that those substances always present a risk because they may contain banned substances even if the ingredient list doesn’t reflect them.

"As an NFL veteran and team leader, I should have done my due diligence to ensure that what I was taking for recovery was within the NFL guidelines. I understand that I am responsible for what is in my body and I have always believed that ignorance is no excuse when it comes to these issues. I take full responsibility for my actions. I’d like to express my sincere apologies to the Chargers, my teammates, coaches, fans and the league who have always supported me and expected and gotten nothing but the highest level of integrity from me."

With Gates out for four games, the Chargers will turn to Ladarius Green as the team's top tight end, though it was expected for Green to continue getting more looks in the passing game. Green is entering the final season of his rookie contract. 

The Chargers expressed disappointment in Gates for his suspension but plans to stick with the longtime veteran through the suspension. 

"We are tremendously disappointed for our team and our fans as well as Antonio, but no more disappointed than Antonio is with himself," the Chargers stated. "Antonio is a member of the Chargers' family and we will continue to support him 100-percent. We have the utmost confidence he will stay in excellent shape for the season and be ready to go when he returns in Week 5. While it's unfortunate to not have him to start the season, we have complete confidence our tight end group will continue to play at a high level."  


Packers' Datone Jones out 1 game for substance-abuse violation
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Packers defensive lineman Datone Jones will be suspended for one game for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy, according to NFL.com. 

Jones will miss Green Bay's season-opener against the Bears. In 2014, Jones totaled 22 tackles and 1 1/2 sacks in 13 games played. 


 
 
 
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