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Fantasy & Reality: The Thursday night riddle

Senior Fantasy Writer
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While it's awesome to have a football game early every week, Thursday nights remain a mystery to Fantasy Football owners.

Through two weeks already this season we've seen the Patriots squeak by the Jets (most would have expected the Pats to beat them soundly) and the Eagles get roasted by the Chiefs (most would have expected the Eagles to put up more of a fight). Already, Thursday night games are on par from last year's editions in terms of let-down performances and a lack of scoring. Just look at Tom Brady (13) in Week 2 and Michael Vick (17) last Thursday night. The receivers in these first two Thursday nighters have also been busts (outside of Jason Avant).

The Thursday games aren't just hard on Fantasy owners. Coaches have a hard time with them, too.

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"Honestly, I feel particularly as the season goes on, it's hard. It's hard to recover," former Steelers head coach and current The NFL Today analyst Bill Cowher told me this week. "You try to do a little bit of preparation in training camp because you're already cut down on how much time you have to meet with the players (the week of the game). We used to do that for Thanksgiving so we'd have a little bit of an idea of what we wanted to do."

Getting ready to play football in four days is a tough chore, and the results of which have proven to be perplexing. Take any angle to any game and chances are you'd be surprised with the results. Only nine teams in 2012 scored 30-plus points (five on Thanksgiving) while 11 teams scored 14 or fewer. Home teams were 8-8. Teams coming off a win went 9-9 while teams coming off a loss were 7-7. Teams coming off a home game were 11-14. Teams coming off a road game -- explain this one -- were 5-2.

And if that doesn't stun you, this will: You'd think teams would be uber-prepared for their contest following their Thursday game considering a 10-day layoff. Well, teams went 15-17 the following week after a Thursday night game.

Of course these numbers are in a vacuum and don't specifically preach to a Fantasy audience. But this one does: On Thursdays in 2012 only six quarterbacks had 20-plus Fantasy points, 23 running backs had 10-plus points (11 had 15-plus points), 24 receivers had 10-plus Fantasy points (just seven had 15-plus points) and four tight ends had 10-plus Fantasy points. When you consider these numbers came over 16 games, they're disappointing across the board, save for the running backs.

This makes sense. On a short week it's probably harder for non-cornerback defenders to recover from the clang-and-bang they took on just four days prior. Offensive linemen probably have similar troubles, but running backs don't. There's maybe one practice, two walk-thrus and plenty of time for a running back to heal up. They're fresher. Additionally, the playbook knowledge a running back has to have is inherently smaller than quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends. Their assignments aren't as complicated. Pretty much every stud running back from 2012 shined in their Thursday game, especially those who played late in the year. Of the 22 rushers who produced 10 or more Fantasy points in 2012, 14 came in the final seven weeks of the Thursday slate (nine games).

Already this season three of the four starting running backs that have played on a short week's rest have posted at least 12 Fantasy points. To be fair, two of them were Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. But Bilal Powell's 12-point game is nothing to sneeze at. Capable running backs deserve automatic Fantasy consideration on Thursdays.

The other positions just haven't measured up. Quarterbacks have to intimately learn the tendencies of their opponents. Receivers have to size up the defensive backs. Tight ends, who also probably take on more punishment physically than other players, also have to get to know opposing linebackers and safeties. These guys are all professionals but it's a tall order to have an in-depth knowledge of an opponent with less than 100 hours of prep time to work with.

In turn, the Fantasy spin is simple: Don't use a non-running back playing on Thursday unless it's a slam-dunk -- not even a slam-dunk matchup is enough to justify a non-obvious player. As podcast and video host Adam Aizer says, "When in doubt, Thursday's out!"

Game Top QB Top RB Top WR Top TE
Bears 10 J. Cutler (4) M. Forte (7) B. Marshall (2) K. Davis (8)
Packers 23 A. Rodgers (12) C. Benson (11) J. Nelson (8) T. Crabtree (8)
Giants 36 E. Manning (17) A. Brown (24) R. Barden (13) M. Bennett (13)
Panthers 7 C. Newton (9) D. Williams (7) S. Smith (8) G. Olsen (9)
Browns 16 B. Weeden (10) T. Richardson (15) G. Little (7) B. Watson (5)
Ravens 23 J. Flacco (24) R. Rice (8) T. Smith (15)* D. Pitta (0)
Cardinals 3 K. Kolb (9) R. Williams (3) L. Fitzgerald (9) R. Housler (4)
Rams 17 S. Bradford (15) S. Jackson (7) C. Givens (11) L. Kendricks (6)
Steelers 23 Roethlisberger (19) I. Redman (11) M. Wallace (15) H. Miller (6)
Titans 26 Hasselbeck (15) C. Johnson (11) K. Britt (12) J. Cook (5)
Seahawks 6 R. Wilson (3) M. Lynch (11) B. Obomanu (5) Z. Miller (0)
49ers 13 A. Smith (10) F. Gore (18) M. Crabtree (3) D. Walker (7)
Buccaneers 36 J. Freeman (28) D. Martin (32) M. Williams (12) D. Clark (4)
Vikings 17 C. Ponder (15) A. Peterson (16) P. Harvin (15) K. Rudolph (1)
Chiefs 13 M. Cassel (6) J. Charles (5) D. Bowe (7) S. Maneri (0)
Chargers 31 P. Rivers (18) R. Mathews (6) M. Floyd (10) A. Gates (10)
Colts 21 A. Luck (18) V. Ballard (5) R. Wayne (9) D. Allen (3)
Jaguars 10 C. Henne (8) R. Jennings (2) C. Shorts (16) M. Lewis (3)
Dolphins 14 R. Tannehill (7) R. Bush (3) D. Bess (11) A. Fasano (0)
Bills 19 R. Fitzpatrick (7) C. Spiller (12) S. Johnson (7) S. Chandler (3)
Texans 34 M. Schaub (16) A. Foster (23)* A. Johnson (18). O. Daniels (8)
Lions 31 M. Stafford (29) M. Leshoure (11)* C. Johnson (20)* B. Pettigrew (7)
Redskins 38 R. Griffin III (36) A. Morris (17) P. Garcon (14)* N. Paul (8)
Cowboys 31 T. Romo (33) F. Jones (11) D. Bryant (24) J. Witten (7)
Patriots 49 T. Brady (36) S. Vereen (19)* W. Welker (13)* A. Hernandez (3)
Jets 19 M. Sanchez (14) B. Powell (11) J. Kerley (8) D. Keller (12)
Saints 13 D. Brees (3) P. Thomas (8) L. Moore (12) J. Graham (5)
Falcons 23 M. Ryan (12) M. Turner (12) J. Jones (4) T. Gonzalez (11)
Broncos 26 P. Manning (16) K. Moreno (21) E. Decker (8) J. Dreessen (9)
Raiders 13 C. Palmer (18) D. McFadden (12) Heyward-Bey (14)* B. Myers (0)
Bengals 34 A. Dalton (14) Green-Ellis (16) A. Green (11) J. Gresham (6)
Eagles 13 N. Foles (9) B. Brown (4) R. Cooper (8) C. Harbor (2)
* - denotes multiple players on the team had 10-plus Fantasy points

Why I'm waiting for Wilson

Simply put, the Giants have no choice but to put the ball back into David Wilson's hands. To help fix their busted offense they need to re-establish their run game, not just between the tackles but on the outer edges and on screens and dump-off passes.

Wilson is their best option to get that going and it's not even close. Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser with no quickness or agility left in his tank. Da'Rel Scott is a better passing downs back but doesn't have the playmaking ability Wilson has.

I noticed Wilson trying to get revved up last week at Carolina. Though he totaled zero yards on his first seven carries, those official numbers don't include a 17-yard run to the left edge for a touchdown that was nullified by a holding penalty (the hold, I believe, was just far enough away on the play to not make a difference had the defender not been held). Then when the game was lopsided in the third quarter Wilson picked up a few more opportunities, reeling off runs for 11, 14 (called back due to penalty that did help Wilson out), minus-1, 12 and 18 yards.

It should be enough to show the Giants coaches that he can help the offense, even if it is painfully obvious that the Giants offensive line is a major problem. Maybe that gets worked out, maybe the Giants work around it or maybe Wilson is part of the solution (he can catch the ball). But his skill set is too valuable for the Giants to ignore when they're looking for wins.

With four of the G-Men's next six games against the Eagles, Vikings and Raiders, I would try pawning off a receiver for Wilson immediately.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) from around the league.

Fantasy: Russell Wilson won't have to throw much against Jacksonville, and that's why he'll stink. I couldn't have been more wrong. Wilson's first score was a goal-line job where tight end Zach Miller faked a block, actually hit the ground, and got up and was wide open for an easy score. The second, also to Miller, came off a play-action bootleg that had most of the Jaguars defense confused. The third was on an 11-yard post pattern by Sidney Rice and the fourth was not a well thought-out pass but Rice plucked it right in front of a Jaguars defensive back for a score. The lessons learned: Jacksonville's pass defense isn't very good, and anytime a quarterback needs to get in a groove his team will afford him the chance against any weak opponent. Let's hope Wilson can build off of this when he plays at Houston and at Indy over the next two weeks.

Reality: Dwayne Bowe's numbers are in trouble. Bowe would love a "get right" game against the Jaguars but he's already played them. Through three games Bowe has 17 targets, nine catches, 90 yards and a touchdown. Jamaal Charles has more targets while Donnie Avery has one fewer target. Avery is the only Chiefs player with a receiving average higher than 11.0 and has two catches for more than 30 yards (only one was a legitimate deep pass). The common thread? Alex Smith, who has attempted just eight passes for 15-plus yards through three games (105 attempts!). The problems that hindered Michael Crabtree in San Francisco are now in Bowe's lap in Kansas City.

Fantasy: Chris Ivory is the Jets' best running back. I'm more confident than ever in Bilal Powell leading the Jets' ground game. Ivory's hamstring has flared up, Mike Goodson will never be more than a passing-downs option and the offense is just barely good enough to give him a chance to post some good cumulative numbers. He has 12 and 14 points in standard formats the last two weeks. Consider Powell the cheapest starting running back available via trade right now.

Reality: Josh Gordon isn't going away. I would be stunned if Josh Gordon's numbers regressed like they did last year when he had three good games in a row and then pretty much disappeared. The Browns are sorely lacking at running back and I don't see that changing. That means they'll pass more often, much like they did last week at Minnesota, and with Jordan Cameron forcing defenses to pay attention to him it won't be a matter of Gordon being double covered all of the time. Brian Hoyer has also showed that he can chuck it. Gordon might not get 19 targets or 10 catches in a game again this season but we haven't seen his last 100-yard contest.

Fantasy: It's a good idea to spend a decent draft pick on a DST. The top three DSTs drafted this summer were the Seahawks, 49ers and Bears, all with a pick before 100th overall on average. None of them are the top DST through three weeks, though the Seahawks rank second and the Bears rank fourth. The Niners? 29th. The Bengals, Broncos and Texans were also early Fantasy DST choices and none of them are in the Top 12 right now. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Cowboys and Panthers are in the Top 6. Next year do yourself a favor and wait forever for a DST unless it's an absolute stud unit like the Seahawks, which works as a Round 11 pick.

Reality: I'm liking Kenbrell Thompkins. Of course, I liked Thompkins before, and it's easy to say I like him following a two-score performance. But over three weeks he's been thrown at in or near the end zone five times and it began to pay off last week. Assume that by the time the Patriots' receiving corps gets healthy Thompkins and Brady will have their chemistry issues close to being fixed. Defenses won't be able to do any better than single coverage on Thompkins, making him a consistent No. 3 Fantasy receiver.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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Player News
Raiders confident in Matt Schaub
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(11:17 am ET) The Raiders are expecting quarterback Matt Schaub to put his disaster of a 2013 season behind him this year, reports ESPN.

Schaub was benched in his final year with the Texans before being traded to Oakland this offseason.

"I don't have any problems with Matt Schaub's confidence," coach Dennis Allen said. "I think he's in a good frame of mind. I think he's very hungry. I think he's excited about the new opportunity."

Schaub should benefit from a change of scenery, Allen said.

"I think anytime you go into something new, there's a little bit of, maybe it's an increased focus, an increased intensity level, because it is new," Allen said. "You kind of force yourself out of your comfort zone a little bit. I think he's done that. I think he's been very focused and very driven this offseason and I don't think there's any question that he's got something that he wants to go out and prove."


Packers 'still open' to bringing Jermichael Finley back
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(11:14 am ET) Packers coach Mike McCarthy said Friday that he's "still open" to Jermichael Finley coming back to the team. Speaking with the media, McCarthy said he still considers him a Packer and wouldn't put a deadline on bringing himback. He also hasn't consulted with the doctors on whether or not Finley is healthy enough to play after suffering a major neck injury last season. 

Dolphins place Mike Pouncey, Knowshon Moreno on PUP list
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(11:13 am ET) The Dolphins opened training camp Friday by placing center Mike Pouncey and running back Knowshon Moreno on the physically unable to perform list, reports ESPN.

Pouncey had major hip surgery this summer and reportedly could miss as much as eight weeks of the regular season. Moreno had a cleanup procedure on his knee and should return before the end of the preseason.

Both players are expected to eventually be key members of Miami's offense. Pouncey is arguably the Dolphins’ best offensive player. Moreno, who started last year for the Broncos, signed a one-year contract to compete with incumbent starting tailback Lamar Miller.


Jags GM lays out quarterback plans
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(11:09 am ET) Jaguars general manager David Caldwell wants quarterback Chad Henne to start all 16 games this season, reports the team's official website.

The report says Caldwell expects rookie quarterback Blake Bortles to be the top backup. When asked if Bortles could start, Caldwell said, "For us it’s really going to be our team's maturity and Blake's maturity."


Steelers have timetable for Ben Roethlisberger's contract
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(10:56 am ET) The Steelers plan to address quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's contract situation after the 2014 season, reports the team's official website.

"I met with Ben shortly before we did the Maurkice Pouncey signing (in the middle of June) just to make sure Ben understood where we were with our intentions as far as a contract extension for him," said team president Art Rooney II. "I just didn't want him to feel like we were moving ahead with other players without any communication.

"And so I talked to Ben, and then we talked with his agent Ryan Tollner about where we are and the fact we intend on addressing Ben's contract situation after the season, so that we could address a number of players who were going into their last year in 2014. I think Ben understands that's our intention and the way we'd like to proceed. I think we had a good conversation."


Chiefs TE Sean McGrath considering retirement
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(10:52 am ET) Chiefs backup tight end Sean McGrath is reportedly considering retirement according to ESPN. He was not in camp on Thursday. 

Kaepernick already fond of Steve Johnson
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(10:51 am ET) 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick already likes what he sees from new receiver Steve Johnson, reports ESPN.

"He's another guy that's easy to throw to because he creates so much separation," Kaepernick said. "Very quick, very deceptive, and I'm happy he's on our side of the ball." 

Thursday, in the 49ers' first training camp practice, we could see why Kaepernick was so pleased that the 49ers' traded a mid-round pick next year to Buffalo for Johnson. He was all over the field and he was one of the bright lights of Day 1 of the 49ers' training camp.

The report says Johnson could be a huge key for the 49ers as Kaepernick tries to take their offense to the next level in 2014. Johnson is set to be the No. 3 receiver behind Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree. 


Dez Bryant hopes for new deal
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
(10:47 am ET) The Cowboys are talking with receiver Dez Bryant's agent about a long-term contract extension, but the sides are not close to a deal as the team opens training camp, reports ESPN.

Bryant wants to be among the highest-paid receivers in the league, but he understands he likely will have to wait to cash in with a new contract. Coming off his first Pro Bowl appearance, Bryant is entering the final year of his rookie deal and is due to make $1.78 million this season.

"It feels good to know that things are being talked about, but I'm going to let it take care of itself," Bryant said. "I feel like as long as I take care of business on that field, the rest will be taken care of."

Bryant, 25, caught 93 passes for 1,233 yards and 13 touchdowns last season.

"We'll see what happens," Bryant said. "This is a business. That's the way I've got to look at it. I know that's the way they look at it. We'll go from there."


Report: Seahawks won't add new money to Marshawn Lynch's contract
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(10:45 am ET) The Seahawks are willing to reconfigure Marshawn Lynch's contract for him but won't give him any new money on a deal they signed him to two years ago, ESPN's Jim Trotter reported. Lynch is holding out from Seahawks camp and is asking for a new deal. 

Lynch is due over $5 million for 2014 and is eligible to earn over $7 million in 2015 before becoming a free agent. 


Ravens sign suspended safety Will Hill
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(10:41 am ET) The Ravens have signed suspended safety Will Hill to a one-year deal, according to the Baltimore Sun. Hill is suspended for six games for violating the league's substance abuse policy while with the Giants, his second suspension since entering the NFL.

"If we need it, Will will provide depth in the middle of the season," Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome explained.


 
 
 
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